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UV-RAY

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Everything posted by UV-RAY

  1. UV-RAY
    I feel a lot of peoples views on what winter should be like here in the UK, has been clouded by the previous two remarkable winters. A little bit of common sense and bringing back down to earth is much needed. So far this month we've had all the right synoptics in place for what should have been a mild and wet month, now take a step back and look at how this month has shaped up so far. Far from being mild, the jet has been well south of where it should be with such a strong PV. This wasn't seen by any of those who use teleconnections or otherwise when making their forecasts ( no disrespect to Chino or GP as I hold them both in high esteem ). So lets stop the negativity and lets lower our expectations of what a UK winter has to offer, remember events like last December were a 1/100 event, not what we should be expecting here in the UK.
  2. UV-RAY
    I personally feel they are being way too progressive in raising heights to the south, time and again this scenario keeps popping up in FI only to be delayed further. It's not about only being coldies site, it's about basing assumptions around the bigger picture. We have an exceptionally strong PV yet the jet still wants to go South?
  3. UV-RAY
    There is absolutely no chance of those charts coming off IMO. After the 23rd cool/cold zonality will be in place, probably right through until the New Year.
  4. UV-RAY
    Your going off those same teleconnections that said we would have a flat pattern and mostly zonal TM. I expect more of the same after a brief mild blip.
  5. UV-RAY
    I'm keeping an eye on that feature myself, looks like we could well be in for a few more surprises before the days out.
  6. UV-RAY
    No sooner do I post about the main band missing us, then as sure as eggs are eggs it starts snowing again!
  7. UV-RAY
    Nothing here at the moment, the main band of precipitation appears to be to the West of us and moving SE. Looks like we will miss out on the action this afternoon.
  8. UV-RAY
    It still appears the models are all over the place at this moment in time, is this because of some unknown factor not currently being picked up by any of the models? IMO I believe this is the problem, we have southerly tracking jet with a strong PV, normally these do't go hand in hand. The unknown factor is overriding all teleconnections it appears.
  9. UV-RAY
    Very heavy snow now, if this keeps up we'll end up with more snow than the previous three winters. Who needs favourable teleconnections for cold and snow eh!
  10. UV-RAY
    Moderate snow that lasted for ten minutes, leaving a light dusting. I'm happy as I wasn't expecting anything.
  11. UV-RAY
    It becomes very tedious reading comments like this. When Xmas is upon us then by all means make comments like the above.IMO a lot remains undecided with the positioning of the High.
  12. UV-RAY
    The overall trend is one of temps remaining static, but we are going way off topic now.
  13. UV-RAY
    Nonsense Ian, your theory barely lasted twenty years whereas the LIA lasted 450 years.How's the book coming along by the way?
  14. UV-RAY
    Exciting model watching for all I'd say. I've never seen such a turnaround from the UKMO in such a short time. Too me it looks like Fridays low will zip along the channel, maybe even into France. One thing that is noticeable over the last few winters, is how these LP systems end up further South than originally forecasted. Could be a few more surprises in store in the run up to Christmas.
  15. UV-RAY
    You can tell when it's winter, with Backtracks pendulum mood swings!
  16. UV-RAY
    Maybe you could get your Uncle, best friend, lover, cleaner, to alert the press eh! :winky:
  17. UV-RAY
    Some real nonsense spoken by one or two on here, it appears as soon as a mild outlook is shown some jump on that as being gospel. Back on topic anyhow's, in the reliable timeframe zonal remains king with temps remaining between above average at times to below average at times. I do also think we'll see a period of milder zonality prior to xmas, will this be a precursor to much colder weather thereafter, who knows but for those who think otherwise we shall see!
  18. UV-RAY
    Quite agree Ian, full credit to him for sticking to his guns, Whether he's right or wrong, the level of abuse by those who like to slate all LRF but never publish their own, is downright rude.
  19. UV-RAY
    None of the above, but I'm leaning towards Gavin P 1955/56, All the background signals are very similar to that winter.
  20. UV-RAY
    Gibby's summary is spot on as always going by tonights output. However this is an ever evolving pattern which the models are struggling with, expect more twist and turns before next Monday.
  21. UV-RAY
    Not at all the subject fascinates me, though for novices like myself I sometimes find the evidence relating to cold and stratospheric warming events conflicting.
  22. UV-RAY
    Chicken, egg, always springs too my mind.
  23. UV-RAY
    Indeed there wasn't, I personally feel that far too much weight is given to stratospheric warming events. As 87 shows we can get very cold spells without such warming.
  24. UV-RAY
    And yet Northern parts may see lowland snow,and a 3-5 day cold snap. Just goes to show stratospheric warming isn't always needed for cold and snow. Off course it's only a cold snap as in spell, but again a warm stratosphere doesn't always guarantee cold and vice versa.
  25. UV-RAY
    Why? Do we not need high pressure to be in place for any warming to take place?
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