UV-RAY
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Everything posted by UV-RAY
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Looks like we will enjoy at least 3 days of fine warm weather next week before summer puts the sold sign up, thereafter things looking Autumnal. Ok a bit OTT, but certainly no signs of a prolonged warm/dry spell, and if anything August could turn out more unsettled than June/July.
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No one can say for sure Luke, the odds aren't stacked in favor of a lengthy dry/warm spell, but these can change quickly. It's not been a total write off this summer, more average for those in the South and SE, but below average the further North. Fingers crossed we get at least one spell of warm/hot weather for 5+ days this summer.
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Without being pedantic, people were saying the very same mid June, I don't see any change in the current pattern we are stuck in, more of the same for all. Maybe October will bring us our next lengthy dry/warm spell.
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What a depressing thought, and sadly one that is looking the favorite at this moment in time.
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I did the with the decline of Nina conditions, and my hunch was for a continuation of what the last four summers have thrown at us. The trouble with a LRF though, is that there are far too many variables which tend to throw a spanner in the works.
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Off topic a little, but if true that would fall into line with Roger J's thoughts for later this month.
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Looking grim from the weekend onwards, I very much doubt that low will be that deep, but an unsettled and cool/average outlook remains the form horse.
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In Depth Model Discussion, Analysis and Summaries
UV-RAY replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
So a continuation of what we've been use to so far this summer. Oh dear I think mushy might feel a little depressed now you've told him that. -
It won't matter how cold it gets, or how much fuel you use to keep warm. Do you think for one minute those kind caring energy companies, would cut your fuel supply off for non compliance of payments.
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Off course Pete, but if you look at the last three to four years the jet stream has been slowly moving towards the equator, certainly in NW Europe, a little harder to correlate elsewhere.
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Yes I agree with that, unless there is a major shift in synoptic's, as in the jet stream moving polewards again,and blocking over greenland dispersing, then the odds for another cold winter I would say are about 60-70%.
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That was what I was referring too TWS, we all have an inbuilt bias towards our locality, but we are here to discuss the models for the UK. I'ts not rocket science, but some seem intent on doing as they please.
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Sorry Alex, my comment was directed at one or two on here who can't grasp the idea of this being a model thread for the UK. Most on here give good summaries no matter where they come from, we all have a little IMBYism but we are here to discuss the UK, as well as our own locations. Sorry for being off topic Mods.
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Another run and much the same, some rain/showers in between a couple of days dry/warm weather. That nice big Greenland high looks like it will remain with us throughout the summer, each time FI shows it too weaken on one run, the very next day shows it strengthening it's vice like grip. So too sum up, the SE continues to fry, whilst the rest of us unimportant ones see an average summer.
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Whatever! This is a UK model thread not an IMBY thread, your post are growing tiresome as they are predictable. Here's an idea try and post something about the whole of the UK.
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Mathematics and Geography are not two of your strong points I see. Back to the models and not much as changed, big block over Greenland preventing any sustained heat building over the UK. A few nice warm sunny days for some, followed by spells of rain/showers. for all. Basically I would say that's the pattern set for the next two weeks, will August deliver anything different?
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Good post Gavin, your spot on things could be a lot worse. At least we will have a few days of nice warm weather, and to be honest I think that's the best we can hope for looking at what the models are showing.
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Pretty good assessment mushy, much in line with your own thoughts really.
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They aren't very good with statistics, there baseline starts with +1c for AGW, hence why their LRF skills are pretty inept. Like you say the last 3 have been below average, so that kind of blows that theory out of the water.
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I think he failed to see the irony in his post.Too me it looks a case of more of the same for the rest of this month, still no signs of a lengthy dry/hot spell. Will soon be Autumn too!
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Now that's quite comical if they wasn't being serious.
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It tends to remind me of winters past, always something on the horizon but never in the reliable timeframe. The clock is ticking, and the outlook in the reliable remains much of what we have already seen. Summer over, no, but the prospects of a hot dry spell?
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Can't argue with that, whatever happens now.
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It's ok mushy, as sometimes the weather itself doesn't always follow the MJO. Remember it's just another teleconnection tool, it's not foolproof.
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The fat lady is now getting ready, two more weeks and if we haven't seen a pattern change it's Adios summertime, I'll get my coat.