UV-RAY

Personally I still don't think that Stratospheric warming is the be all and end all for cold, yes it does help heights to rise over the pole, but then again you need heights over the pole for any Stratospheric warming to take place.

Well I for one I'm hoping it will stay well below average from February through too August, and with solar activity now on the decline again who would bet against it.

Well seen as it's November still it may well be.

Thank you John, a very informative and well put together forecast.

Although I don't agree with GP's views regarding any cold being late on in the winter, I have to say at this moment in time there is nothing cold showing in any model output whatsoever. Mild/average temps until at least the middle of December, and perhaps beyond is all I can see. Will that cold bottled up over Siberia advance Westwards thereafter though. Until then plenty of Heinz 57 weather on offer.

I was referring to the other members having a dig at those on here, who've posted their winter forecasts. As Osbourne stated it's no good having a go at them just because it's not blowing a Blizzard, with temps below zero in November.

Deary me it's a wonder anyone posts a LRF on here, with the amount of hostility and abuse hurled at them.

Interesting times ahead, maybe. Goes to show how quickly the upstream signals can change, hopefully!

I've known them to be completely bare of snow in January. This is not a dig at you November, but there really are some idiotic post made on here regarding how such a model is showing this so winter will be mild or cold. The ECM seasonal charts were hopeless last winter, CFS charts might as well be binned as they show a different outcome every few weeks, and the Met Office ones due out on Monday will be no better than the other two ,due to their awful track record at producing LRF. Now where's my seaweed and pine cones.

January 84 was fantastic for my location, but I can't see anything like that happening this winter unless we see a far more active Atlantic.

This I do agree with as it's constructive criticism. Piers does like to highlight extreme events from around the globe, so I would say he's more of a extreme weather event forecaster.

Same old few putting the boot in I see, even though winter hasn't even started yet. I wish the Met Office still produced their LRF, as I find their's woefully inaccurate despite the millions they have spent on super computers. Here's an idea for some of the knockers, why don't you wait until the winter is over before judging.

Oh dear, a trip to specsavers tomorrow.

That's a big turnaround in a very short space of time, somehow I think it's way too progressive at this moment in time.

But surely they must have some inbuilt bias into them John. The reason I ask is that the last thirty years we have seen a warming trend, no one can deny these facts, whatever caused the warming. So with this in mind, surely the models have an inbuilt warming trend that represents the last thirty years data. If this is the case, then maybe this is the sole reason as to why LRF by the Met Office has become such a hot potato? Why are my post replicating themselves when I try to edit them?

Indeed.

So not that different to the Met Office then, after all they once predicted a bbq summer, and endless mild winters

Although I don't condone James Maddens winter forecast, I do believe we should at least wait until December before we pass judgement. After all too assume his forecast is wrong, could just make an ass out of you and me.

I admire your undying devotion to the MetO, but their track record at producing accurate LRF is pretty dire over the years. Maybe your friend has had one too many, and although they may work at the MetO being the cleaner doesn't exactly give them privy information.

Well when winter starts and finishes be sure to e-mail him, but until then here's an idea, lets wait until winter starts.

I agree Blast, it's at this time of the year you start too look for clues as to where we may be heading come winter. As you rightly point out some stated we would never the jet migrating Southwards. Sorry for being off topic mods.

Strange temp profiles for the globe.

No it's not as it only covers November and December with any confidence, and November is Autumn.

Pity it's not the LRF though.

Pity the weather doesn't follow statistics though.