UV-RAY

Too bed with a temperature if it see's the latest out put! No signs of anything remotely resembling summery weather of any of the outputs this morning, that Greenland high seems to be gaining momentum as we head through summer.

Normal service resumed as from tomorrow, nowhere near as wet as previous for Northern areas, but temp drop like a stone to below average/ average for all. Still it should be pleasant in any sunshine,

What as been noticeable in the NH is a buckling of the Jet system, which has allowed High pressure cells to extend their influence around the arctic basin. If we look back over four years ago then we can see how in the NH the jets moved poleward, this was predicted to be the case by climate modelling, which in a warming world the jets would continue to move poleward. Something though changed around 4 years ago, the jet system in the NH started to dig south towards the equator, this wasn't in the script of climate modeller's, they was adamant that the jet would continue it's poleward migration. It's only in the last 18 months that mainstream climate scientist have done an about turn and admitted how solar activity could be responsible for this, so how come they hadn't been able to model this scenario before now? Solar activity and it's effects on our climate are still not fully understood, mainstream climate scientist still don't accept how cosmic rays play such an important part in how they seed clouds. You have to look at the works of mavericks like Henrik Svensmark whose theory on cosmic rays was debunked by the so called professionals a few years back. What does the future hold, well no one knows for sure without having a crystal ball, but all the current signs point to more extremes of weather.

Care to enlighten us as to why? For me it shows an accurate picture of past global temps,without turning this into an AGW argument you can see clearly the correlation.

I enjoy his optimistic post, there are enough of us pessimist to more than counter his upbeat post, Hell he's even got me convinced that summer is coming now.

I'll take that mushy, we may get 3-5 days of reasonable weather if that comes off.

Well seen as this is a thread for the UK, cheerio.

I agree mushy, though it maybe a case of " The truth hurts "

Maybe it's due to the fact that the outlook remains much the same as we've endured so far. Sorry for being pessimistic.

I have to agree, absolutely no chance of 33-35c being recorded anywhere in the British Isles, except Gordon Ramsay's oven that is. All I see is typical British summer weather, a few warm/hot days interspersed with cool wet ones.

That's a very valid point as what records there are for that period clearly indicate the extremities encountered.

Due to warmer waters, as a result of a positive PDO for thirty years, and a Positive NAO, add into the mix high solar activity and frequently strong el ninos and you have all the ingredients for what we are witnessing in the arctic. You really need to look at the bigger picture, by looking into past climatic shifts. Your right about 7 billion of mankind having an effect, though not through AGW IMO. Look back and correlate temps with ENSO and the PDO, it's not just solar activity that changes our climate there's a whole spectrum of feedbacks to consider. Too many vested interest with too much to lose are doing their best to misinform and hoodwink the general public. Apologies for getting way of topic, I'll keep to the subject we are meant to be discussing from here on.

Now we are opening a can of worms with that one.

Your quite right there is no cooling. merely a plateauing of temperatures over the last decade, as for a possible Maunder Minimum, well we can only speculate for now.

The maximum will still be well below the norm, as it is right now. It's cycle 25 which is the one that is getting people excited, that is due to peak around 2022, and looks like being one of the weakest in centuries. Exciting times ahead, me thinks. Jonathan Powell has the reversed Midas touch, so anything he says just think opposites!

Off course there's no proof of a shut down, but there is proof of a disturbance in the flow over the last couple of years, whether this means anything is another question.

What an amazing picture.

Maybe it does in a tentative sort of way, but not through a solar minimum rather at when solar activity is high. In layman's terms, the jet stream moves poleward at a time of higher solar activity this resulting in warmer temperatures/waters moving North also. This then causes a melting of the icepack in the Arctic, which then equates to colder waters moving towards the equator, thus resulting in a mixing of salinity/warmer waters with the colder waters from the poles.

That is what I was implying?Some argue that the added CO2 in the atmosphere, will negate the effects of a Maunder Minimum. Personally I feel that Solar output was responsible for the 30 year warming, combined with a positive PDO, and frequent positive ENSO ( El-Nino's ).

This is so true TWS, many have been spoilt over the years when ENSO and solar conditions were far more favourable for summer warmth. Ok June hasn't been great, but we need to lower our expectations for the remainder of summer, a week or so of warm and sunny weather will soon banish the June blues!

Sometimes that can have a negative effect though, already views have become entrenched as to whether or not a Maunder Minimum is possible with today's greenhouse gas emissions. The climate will continue to do just whatever it pleases in my eyes, it's a case of wait and see.

I believe they will be right, as we are now firmly stuck in a predictable pattern of Northern blocking and a Southerly tracking jet. Until this shows signs of abating, then the prospects of another cold winter cannot be ruled out.

Obviously some peoples perception of summer is wall to wall sunshine and 30c temps, maybe a simple geography lesson wouldn't go amiss for these people.

Stalker!

And the debate goes on Even though I'm a big fan of GP I do believe his original LRF is bust.. So now he has put out an amended forecast all eyes are focused on this. Personally I feel there's more than enough time for GP's hot and dry summer to come to fruition, but if by the middle of next month we haven't seen a shift to more settled warmer conditions then the knives will be out ( again ) . Until then I'll watch this space.