UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Those temps are fine if your retired and can sit in the garden all day and have air conditioning during the nighttime, for anyone else more so those who work indoors they are terrible. Now -25c and your talking, stick an extra jumper on and a wooly hat and gloves and you'll be fine. Mind you I'm a rough and tough Northerner!22 - 23c I find abit useless........ not warm enough for me to get in a t-shirt and sit around enjoying it. I prefer night time temperatures around 18 - 23c as long as not too humid and 28 - 35c in day is lovely
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It appears we are experiencing those same events now Jethro, we may have to wait for that magic thirty year mark where weather extremes become climate data so until then lots of watching and waiting.I think there may be some confusion going on here, due I think to the label of Little Ice Age. The name infers cooling in general, by definition that means it should be glaringly obvious in temperature records. The trouble is, that period never was one of unremitting cooling or cold weather - it was a period of extreme weather. Anomalous warmth, cold, wet, dry and storminess with a tendency for weather patterns to become stuck for weeks on end.
This is utterly unscientific but all I have time for... reading through this weather record during the Maunder Minimum 1645-1715 there are records of 45 hot events, 62 cold, 52 wet, 33 dry and 45 stormy, the events are either years or seasons in length with the exception of storms, which sometimes are single events.
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1600_1649.htm
It's pretty clear that unrelenting cold didn't happen, temperature series record average temps annually. We've had a below average winter but if that is balanced by a warmer than average summer, the cold won't show up in annual temperature series.
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There should have been a smiley mushy but I'm on my iPad. Nature will adapt it always does, remember we are only in the first few weeks of spring and many migratory birds haven't yet arrived to these shores. As for hot summers you also have to think about us humans as there are plenty of asthma sufferers who would disagree with you on that point, not to mention all those others who have heart conditions. Extreme heat kills thousands of these people so ideally our temperate climate is ideal for those.... and who said they do (ignore heat stress in livestock)? so are fans of extreme cold sadists and weirdos too? or is that only applicable to non cold fans?
the salient point is that spring is the breeding season, nature is at its most vunerable after a long winter, if livestock, nature, fails to breed successfully in spring, there will be nothing to suffer in a hot summer! ... but most wildlife can sustain a hot summer better then a cold spring.
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As others have stated there is just as much misery to livestock and people suffering from extreme heat, who in their right mind would want that apart from sadist weirdos
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But your comparing apples with oranges BFTV, yes it's vital for sustaining plant life but we simply have no way of measuring it's impact due to all the positive and negative feedbacks within the atmosphere, some of which we still don't understand. I would say that within the next 10 years we will know which forcing has the greater impact on our climate, a true real life laboratory test right here on Mother Earth, fascinating times ahead!The fact that the same trace gas supports all plant life across the globe and contributes to the formation of shelled creatures in the ocean (among numerous other things), kinda shows what a large effect trace gasses can have.
I think some may find this paper interesting
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What I find amazing and off topic is how a trace gas can reduce global temps by X-amount, yet solar output is considered irrelevant.
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A chicken and egg scenario but the causation of said ice loss could well be down to the formation of blocking highs at mid and high latitudes, which appears a causation of low solar output.Not necessarily a surprise.
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss
Full paper
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Oh no not the dreaded climate change malarkey BFTVPeople seem quite unsure about how the changes seen in the Arctic might influence our weather.I know it can seem daft that changes in ice thousands of miles away could effect us here and on that basis it's easy to dismiss.
So if you can bear with me, I'm going to try and explain it, so please have a read.
The extra warming in the Arctic, caused by the melting of snow and ice, changes the energy balance between the Arctic and more southern regions.
To understand how this effects the jet stream, you must understand one of the aspects that causes the jet stream form.
As most people know, according to Boyles law, as a gas warms, it expands. This is no different with the atmosphere. In more southern latitudes (in the northern hemishere), the air is warmer than it is in the north and so it expands more. This raises the pressure levels in the atmosphere higher, essentially creating a thicker atmosphere in the southern regions than in the Arctic.
This thickness gradient encourages the air to move towards the Arctic. As it does so, it get churned and funnelled by the Earth's spin, resulting in the formation of the jet stream.
Now as the first animation posted above shows, the Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the planet. This is having the effect of warming up and "thickening" the atmosphere over the Arctic.
This is then reducing the gradient along which the jet stream forms. As is the case with a river in its mature stage, creating large loops and meanders, the jet stream is slowing down and becoming more amplified because of this warming, sending large loops north and troughs south. This isn't just a theory, but there is loads of for it now.
Another aspect of how the Arctic is influencing the jet stream, is that the effects are strongest in Autumn and Winter. This is because, as the sea ice is lost during summer, the Arctic ocean absorbs the suns energy and heats up. Then during the Autumn when the sun sets for Winter, the heat in the ocean is released to the atmosphere, massively increasing the temperature and thickness.
This means that the change in the jet stream in recent years has been strongest in Autumn.
This is also part of how we can differentiate the Arctic influence from that of the sun, there is a clear seasonality to the anomalous jet patterns, which, as I've shown, can be tied to the Arctic, but not the sun.
The other thing that separates the suns and the Arctic's influence is the mechanism by which they effect the jet stream.
- With the Arctic, it's from surface warming in the Arctic pushing the atmosphere upward
- With the sun, it's UV changes affecting the tropical stratosphere, which propagates downward.
I hope I've explained this somewhat clearly.
It would appear clear to me that what we are seeing results from both the changes in the Arctic, and the quiet sun. Some will believe one has more of an effect than the other, and that's fine.
This thread doesn't need to become a climate change debate imo. I hope that discussion of the effects of changes to our planet, and changes with the sun, can be done here in a rational manner, without the added complications of CO2.
On a more serious note, yes the impact of the arctic is indeed an unknown quantity, but like you stated some of us think one effects the other. Good post by the way.
- With the Arctic, it's from surface warming in the Arctic pushing the atmosphere upward
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Sorry mushy a bit of confusion on my part, I wasn't referring to the 500mb anomaly charts but he more the seasonal ones as in Net Weathers and CFS. It's the CFS monthly ones I particularly pay attention too, spring isn't looking too good and it's too early for getting a clearer picture of what they are predicting for Summer.well jh did an anomaly chart study which suggests that when you have agreement over several runs they are pretty good at picking up on the general pattern, not the detail, but the general synoptic pattern likely to emerge.
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The anomaly charts are pretty poor as a forecasting tool though Gavin, I would be inclined to follow the CFS model, it's been pretty good throughout the last twelve months.Well the net weather anomaly charts for summer are stunning with temperatures well above normal for some parts currently and rainfall well below average for many parts
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Yes I would have thought low solar output would effect the jet stream in the SH in some shape or form. As for proxies I'm not keen on most of these as most seem to contradict one another, or the data is corrupted in itself.You'd have thought so. A quiet Sun isn't just focussed upon the NH, it shines on us all, however it seems it's impact varies around the globe. The last Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period had greater impact upon the NH, some studies claim it is barely measurable in the SH proxy records, although there is some dispute about this. What isn't disputed though is the dramatic impact it had on the NH.
Seems all things aren't equal when it comes to an active/inactive Sun.
Thank you.
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Evidence is in short supply at this moment in time, but if we look at the last five years we've seen extremes in weather types and these in themselves effect the growing season.Have you forgotten last Spring? Or the warm spring and autumn in 2011 (which here was an entirely snowless year, and the first autumn frosts didn't arrive until mid December) .
http://metofficenews...day-since-1998/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16366078
http://www.bbc.co.uk...-wales-17059662
Where's the evidence from Britain that the growing season is getting shorter and/or spring starting later?
One year does not change a multi-decadal trend
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Yes as usual in Lancashire elevation is the key. I find it hard to take that Merseyside has had more snow this winter than I've seen in the last twenty years combined.Just one post from me this morning. With others like around Preston, Leyland etc have missed out spectacularly from this event. So frustrating hearing and seeing news about the amounts of snow. I now have a 1cm line left against the garden wall where it hasn't yet melted. I know altitude is an issue given my location but to not be at the party at such an event is so disappointing. For those who got loads of snow I am genuinely happy and hope you enjoy it all safely and make lots of memories. Rant over!
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Not much snow lying on the pavements around here, but still some on grassy areas. At higher elevations here there are reports of drifts in excess of 15 feet and on the A666 two snowploughs and a lorry sent to rescue them are all stuck, resulting in this main route from Blackburn to Bolton being closed. If only I wasn't awaiting my knee replacement surgery for next week, I would have been out on them their hills with ice axe and crampons.
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Too much whinging, if you lived in Lancashire you'll be thankful of any weather other than rain.Aye, utterly dreadful...10C would feel like a heatwave!
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My 3cm of snow is now thawing fast with a temp of 2.3c.
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Too be fair to Backtrack getting an accurate measurement in snow that is drifting around is quite difficult.
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We now have official blizzard comditions, very small flakes but coming down with intensity and blowing around in the stron to gale force winds. Depth of snow is hard to work out now due to drifting but I would say 3-4cm of level snow at bestt
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The great blizzard of 2013 has now stopped, it's going to take a while before life returns to normal around here.
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That was my wicked sense of humour, still around 2cm.What's all the moaning about then?
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Snow intensity picking up again with about 10cm covering, temp still 1.0c.
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It's a conspiracy I tells ya Crewe!WTF? WTF is going on? Why is it magically accumulating in areas near the Irish Sea
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Temp on the rise again now 1.0c, still snowing albeit lightly. What time is the heavy stuff due to give me 20cm plus.
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Seems to dying out now, looking at the radar it's hard to tell whether that's it or we'll see a little more. I suppose my 2cm is better than nothing, maybe one day I'll see another big dumping of snow before I'm being spoon fed in some old folks home.
Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted