UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-49#entry2893190
Not wanting to sound like a stick-in-the-mud, Keith - but wouldn't the best folks to ask be those Aussies who happen to live on the ground?
Lol, when do they do that when it's cold records that are broken.
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Drizzle much more preferable to snow.
Weirdo!
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Are we about to see the models do a u-turn, looks like my throwing in the proverbial towel could be the key to an impending cold spell. I'll carry on writing it off.
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Very harsh calling someones hard work a fantasy, by all means say the original was bust but fantasy implies that it's nothing better than a wild guess which is a real insult as you can see the amount research and work that has gone into issuing this.
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The chances of cold increase markedly as we move through into the second half of January and more especially in February - traditionally the atlantic begins to weaken thanks to a weaker polar vortex and we are more likely to come under a northerly or easterly attack.
History has shown cold weather can occur in February after mild fairly snowless Decembers and January's. 2012 is a very recent example - admittedly the cold weather only lasted first 10 days. February 2007 delivered some very heavy snowfalls to much of central England on the back of a snowless very mild 6 week spell. Admittedly the snowy spell was brief.
End of Feb 2006 and early March 2006 delivered the coldest and snowiest weather of the winter for Scotland - likewise 2004.
Feb 2005 produced a lengthy cold spell later on which lasted into March again on the back of a mild and mostly snowless December and January.
And we have seen plenty of examples of late season cold and snowfall in March and even April on the back of mild fairly snowless Decembers and January's - 2008 being a recent example.
I'd ask anyone to take a look at the synoptics of winter 2004/2005 a mild atlantic fest through Dec and Jan - but look what happened in February, came out of nowhere..
Yes but not IMBY they didn't, 2012 only brought a freezing rain event although to be fair nearly all Scandi heights deliver next to nothing for those out West. Like I said though if the block remains in situ for the next 7-10 days then we are still in with a chance, I'm still of the opinion that we'll end up just on the wrong side of said block throughout the rest of this winter, which tended to happen throughout the nineties and noughties.
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I know but we very rarely get a cold spell in February after a mild December and January, granted it's the only the 11th of January but unless we see a change in the outlook soon then the chances of a prolonged cold spell will be receding fast. The next 7-10 days are crucial IMO on how much influence heights over to our NE have on the upstream pattern, if they remain robust then we still have a chance.My point still stands S.I
We can not make assumptions based on the weather we have had or having, as we have seen in years gone by things can change dramatically, not that we need it to, as we have plenty of winter left yet yet !
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You was suppose to cheer me up by saying the opposite.Could very well be.. We will see
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Indeed, but I'm going with a gut feeling and that any cold and snow will be very brief if at all for the latter. This winter is of a similar vein to those nightmarish ones of the nineties and noughties.Really..? To be honest nobody has a clue what the 2nd half of Jan has to offer, never mind Feb which is traditionally the coldest winter month in the UK. We are not even half way through winter yet, plenty of time left yet and who knows what March will bring ? just look at last year for example, things can change very fast.
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So the record cold in the states is down the circulation of the jet and heights over the Ne Pacific, yet our bad weather could be down to climate change. Lol, they are making up as they go along.
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Nothing in the model output this morning convinces me that a cold spell is imminent anytime soon, in fact I would say we have every chance of the Azores High dictating our weather pattern for the rest of this month at least. Hopefully not but I stand by my comments yesterday of a few days of cold at best is the best we can hope for the remainder of this winter, bar any favourable synoptics developing if we see a SSW.
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I really don't know why folks go on about that's it the end of Winter, I was driving through Mid Wales on April 1st last year with 15 ft snow drifts either side of me, Winter is far from over!!!
Indeed and I'm expecting another well below average spring, besides everyone knows winter starts in spring.My comment totally utterly tongue-in-cheek! Better get it off your chest in here than we all know where
Isn't April classed as Spring LOL..
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Europe virtually snow free all the way deep into Russia with only a tiny bit of ice in the Baltic.
Must be one of the mildest Januaries for a long time - oh dear.....
Pretty grim really. My optimism which has been evident since October really has now reached critical proportions. I really can't see anything in the way of sustained cold coming this way anytime soon, there's no scientific reasoning whatsoever just a gut feeling that this winter reminds me of all those bad winters of yesteryear, with little in the way of snow or ice for anyone during December and the first part of January. It's a grim picture and unless we see a SSW and hopefully see the dice fall in our favour then this winter will be restricted to just the odd day here and there for cold and maybe snow.
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This winter really is pants and I really can't see anything cold happening within the next 2 weeks at least, in fact I don't think we'll see anything other than the odd day or two of cold from now to the end of February. This winter has all the hallmarks of a nineties winter which predominately was mildish and wet with a few cold days thrown in during February.
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Another easterly and another fail. The only way to get decent cold to our shores and for all of the UK is via heights over Greenland, the last two winters have both produced a Scandi high and neither of them have produced a cold and snowy set up IMBY. Every year we get suckered into Easterlies they are without doubt bobbins and 9/10 fail to deliver nationwide, or at all.
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We'll be lucky if we get a frost let alone a big freeze.New winter misery as blanket of snow follows devastating floods SNOW left parts of Britain under a carpet of white yesterday with the country braced for a Big Freeze. Just as the devastating floods of recent weeks start to recede Arctic winds threaten to sweep in next week bringing ice, harsh frosts and wintry showers. The mercury is expected to plunge below freezing across the UK with regions left sodden after the relentless rain now facing new misery. Bitterly cold winds threaten to send temperatures plunging to -10C (14F) in the North while the South will shiver in lows of -4C (25F). Forecasters warned that up to four inches of snow could fall over high ground in Derbyshire and Yorkshire. High pressure responsible for the cold snap could remain for weeks with the chill lasting until spring. Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: “People haven’t felt the cold so far as it has been mild so they should prepare for a shock to the system. “It is going to get gradually colder from the weekend before taking a real plunge by the middle of next week. There is a significant threat of snow across the UK. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/453019/New-winter-misery-as-blanket-of-snow-follows-devastating-floods We'll be lucky if it lasts a week never mind till spring!
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No doubt he'll try and snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat.Another potential fail for James Madden coming up if the models are right this morning 2 days ago he posted this
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I was going to highlight how Gibby's post was in the wrong thread..............But after reading it maybe not.
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This is what I was alluding to in the moaning thread, I think the Atlantic will continue to influence events for the next few weeks, whilst the PV goes on its jollies. Thereafter the window of opportunity will hopefully be grasped.Just to add to my previous post....and possibly what the Metoffice have noted....there appears to be a theme in the longer range to fully pull the vortex out of Canada/Greenland. If we can get blocking established we COULD be looking at a special few weeks. It's just getting there first! We might not even get out of the starting blocks.
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I don't think I need to wait for weekend to call it the way. I see it. For next week for the majority will see more rain with temps close to average any colder incursions will be confined to the far NE, thereafter who knows bit I've a feeling that the Atlantic will still be dominating proceedings for the next few weeks.Matt Hugo's take on things tonight It was not a sure thing, but yet another step away from an E'ly (easterly) now for next week given 12Z data, chilly next week, but far from unusual.
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I think I'll await the weekends output before casting judgement the UKMO is better with heights looking more robust and further North, however it's a fluid situation so best to sit back from afar and cast a beady eye on developments.
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Well I for one think it will be a good afternoon model watching for all of us coldies
out there.Heights rising to the north and northeast with pressure dropping to the
south should aid in Atlantic trough disruption which is being underdone by the
models imo. We should soon find out hopefully.
I think it was the MetO update that took the wind out of my sails, but now Ian has kindly given the reasoning behind this I'm inclined to agree with you somewhat. Eyes down for 12z.
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The 144hr I posted shows decent ridging into Eastern Greeny at 144hrs, so IF that happens as shown I think there is more than a fair chance of some proper cold synoptics farther down the line. You know how difficult it is to get an Easterly set up and that difficulty is shared by the models in trying to nail the evolution of one, so expect there to be much more chopping and changing of the detail...as the last 24hrs has seen. However the big picture remains pretty much the same, so until that changes (as well it might) I wouldn't write anything off.
I still feel we need to see this push further westwards in Greenland, this it may do over the coming 10+ days but also we may just as easy end up on the wrong side of the block with fronts stalling over the North sea leaving us in a cold/wet regime.
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Latest from Ian Fergusson;"Colder spell next week nothing unusual for Jan, stress @metoffice. More pronounced to NE. Snow for various areas possible; ditto rain in S. The Express hyperbole well over-the-top, unsurprisingly. Yes, a different mode of winter weather but hardly anything exceptional."
Yeah, bog standard winter fayre though compared to what we've endured at least some will see something a little different.
Scepticism Of Man Made Climate Change
in Climate Change
Posted
Facts are only any good Keith when it suites a warming agenda the rest of the time the goalpost will moved to fit the theory.