UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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GFS 06z FI shows something akin to what I have suggested might happen but hasn't really been modelled before.
We have transient ridges, weak high pressure to the North and low pressure to the South, not a classic cold set up by any means as any cold air being pulled in from the North is constantly being mixed out from the SW as disrupting troughs run NW/SE across the UK.
It is the classic cold zonal set up which would provide some heavy widespread snowfalls. A lot would depend on the track of the low pressure systems with the snow line moving North and South accordingly, rain turning to snow, snow turning to rain on the boundaries. Northern England is often best placed in such set ups because too far North and you don't always get the ppn and too far South you will more often see rain.
Still that is quite a rare set up but interesting to see it being modelled at last as just about everyone would likely see a decent snowfall before the pattern changed to more blocked or more mobile.
Posted for illustration not as a forecast.
Okay so that is a long way off and may never happen but it is worth illustrating because it also ties in with the idea that troughs may well disrupt more than generally modelled past the mid term and hopefully the nasty looking storm of the 27th will be the last bad storm we see for some time. (You can quote me on this
)As long as we continue to see a Southerly jet and displaced Azores high we will continue to see more blocking opportunities, especially as the Atlantic driven weather begins to meet more resistance from high pressure to the North and East.
Disruption, disruption, disruption.
ECM Op was quite disappointing this morning wasn't it?
But at 240 we still have a Southerly jet modelled and the disappointment should also be tempered by looking at the unlikely way energy is handled from the mid term to our NE - I'm trying not to say that word, but it is lacking. I don't think we can ignore it as a possibility but it is definitely on the pessimistic side of the possible scenarios.
Both ECM and GFS 00z ensembles show a cooling trend as we go onto January with a few more colder options and one or two less mild options turning up.
We need for that trend to continue because things are very much still in the balance, we certainly haven't reached a tipping point where we can say January will be below average and feature more blocking but I would say that if you live in the North of England your chances of seeing a decent snowfall in the first half of January are significantly higher than they were a few days ago when EC32 was showing Westerly flow and no cold signal for that period. I would think there is still no cold signal on EC32 but with more scatter.
So, two more storms to get through and then come the 28th we will have a more definitive view of wintry prospects for January - I think we may just have a peek at 1 or 2 model runs between now and then though.
Excellent post Mucka and highlights the potential wintry synoptics as we head into the New Year, I expect lots of inter model agreement and upgrades on a potentially wintry spell of weather post xmas.
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Worst ice storm in years coats southern Ontario, cuts power to thousands
And yet we complain when gales bring down a few power lines, imagine the chaos here if such circumstances occurred.
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1947's severe cold lasted a lot longer than a couple of weeks - essentially the last nine or ten days of January right through till a week into March (later in Scotland), a total for most of six to seven weeks. The CET mean was below 1C for 45 consecutive days, all but five of those below 0C (and usually well below). Even Kew in outer London had air frosts every night of February but two, despite not seeing any sun at all for 20 days of the month, and never saw the temp rise above 40F (4.4C). The Met Office says snow fell somewhere in the UK on 55 days in a row, though I can't quite make that add up - I guess they include Scottish mountains.
There is a widespread misconception that there had been no cold weather at all in 1946-7 before the bitter cold arrived in the later part of January. In fact - unlike this year - there had been a cold period for much of the country, including widespread snow, for over a week from 15th-22nd December. My parents were married in central London on 20th December 1946, and snow was lying on the ground - the CET mean shows 8 consecutive days <1C, three of them <0C. There was then another, albeit brief cold snap in early January, with two days' CET mean <0C, before the mild period of the 11th-18th. Things then progressively cooled until the real event arrived around the 22/23rd.
Indeed, I've lost count the number of times I've read how the winter of 46/47 was mild prior to the February, as you highlight this is a popular misconception and urban myth.
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Indeed Nick, as the longer it takes the more chance of it going the way of the pear.That was just me being dramatic! lol Seriously though I'd prefer the quicker resolution shown by the GFS 12hrs run, I'd wager that we would get the favourable trough disruption on that set up come T0hrs. The longer route of course could get there eventually but we then have to hope the Arctic high remains resolute.
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Maybe IB melted in the furnace like zonal flow, also Steve Murr posting 2 days on the bounce is a good sign.
Rumour has it he's writing another book, this time on modern zonality. Could be a best seller, unlike errr!
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Not in these neck of the woods , just got back from hillwalking in a blizzard and whiteout conditions, this at a modest 1300 feet
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Looks like those of us were positive about a change to a colder setup over the last couple of weeks with the jet digging south are now seeing much to be positive about, split vortexes, negative NAO and AO on the cards and the early signs of HLB, and today I've already encountered blizzards whilst out hillwalking . Lots of eye candy to view over the coming days no doubt but we are not out of the woods yet, as we all know too well that it only takes a SW to appear to scupper any cold for this tiny speck in the ocean.
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Tis the season of goodwill to all men, allegedly. :-)Stop rutting boys and be nice to each other
Its a stormy enough Christmas as suggested by the computer models .Happy holidays everyone
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Lol, that kind of backs up my diagnosis.I think that you need to butt out of matters that do not concern you.
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Not impossible, but we may need to wait another 10,000 years before it becomes possible.You would never get snow lying that long in the UK its impossible
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Your dosage needs increasing tenfold.Still enjoying you life you Lettuceing retard. You drove me off TSR you Tory prune. I see you resigned as leader, thank Lettuce for that. Enjoy sitting discussing weather with a bunch of 50 year old men do you? See the Tories nearly booted you out, yes moles inside informants keep me up to track. Have you ever wondered what it would be like to completely lose access to the model commons, Lettuceing thought not. Go shag your donkey Qwertish and toronto. Jarred looks like he's sick of keeping the place running over, bet your gonna try and jump in his shows moronic imbecile, you'll finish the place wagwamma.
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EC32 and winter 2011-12. Does anyone remember Matt Hugo kept referring to EC32 and signals of higher pressures towards the back end of that January in the Greenland region? Infact, there was no blocking at all there in the end.
That's my beef with the ECM32, it flips far to often over short timescales but now it's showing a zonal outlook we're all suppose to pay homage to it. I'll go with the 7-10 days timescale and look for trends in FI myself rather than rely on the unreliable.
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I think this winter if it's a sustained cold spell you want then yes. I agree, the PV looks unstoppable at this moment in time but things can and do change quite quickly. Now whether that equates to something cold for the UK is another question and one where I think that even with. SSW other factors will override this for any lengthy cold spell this year. What we are seeing now could be as good as it gets and one which if anything makes a good learning curve for future years.Yes its not a guarantee of cold but just that the NH pattern is more condusive to delivering it, a SSW last winter though did deliver a very quick response as the zonal flow reversed, that can happen even whilst waiting for the full effects. Given the state of the PV I think in this instance we are going to need help from the strat.
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I still think far too many place far to much faith in SW for delivering cold, the last two winters have seen SW events but both of these left large parts of the western part of the UK in no mans land for cold. Remember just because we see a warming that doesn't equate to cold for the UK, I still feel that too many look at the Strat thread as the be all and end all for cold for the UK, yes it's an important player but we need other factors to play ball also.
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I disagree as the models have been woeful in the dotting the i's and crossing the t's for the last two weeks. It's all very well saying they've got the LW pattern right, but for this tiny speck of the NH what we've seen is far, far removed from conventional zonality and if we continue to see the jet digging further and further south then this opens the doors for something much colder down the line.HiFunny enough the LW pattern we are in makes predictability much easier for the models. As many of us have said once you get into zonality, you can usually call it for weeks without even having to look at at a chart.The ECM 5 day verification (500hPa) for 14 Dec 12z was 0.972, for 15 Dec 0z was 0.967. The 365 day average is 0.902 (since May 01 it has been 0.896) so it is clear that the models have a good footing when a pattern like this sets in. In fact they are exceptional correlation stats.
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Yes
0-0.5c
0-0.5c
Looking at the poll we have anything from zero effect to catastrophic warming, I bet we all know which ones polled either.
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Latest CFS update, chart explanation can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211
Below is the January chart, with daily values in blue, 10 day mean in red and trend in black.
The last 7 days averaged 0.4 (neutral SLP or weak blocking), with 3 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 -ve and 2 neutral. The previous 7 days averaged 1.3, with 4 +ve, 2 -ve and 1 neutral.
The forecasts over the last while have been very mixed, some with strong blocking, some with very zonal patterns and everything in between. Uncertainty seems to be the forecast for January at this stage.
Below is the latest February chart.
The last 7 days have averaged 0.3 (neutral), with 2 +ve runs, 3 -ve and 2 neutral. The previous 7 days averaged -0.3, with 3 +ve, 4 -ve and 0 neutral.
There has been more CFS runs showing -ve SLP anomalies to our north than +ve over the last 2 weeks, a big change compared to the previous 8 weeks which very much suggested more blocking.
Chart Highlights
The Best
The worst
Much appreciated BFTV the time and effort you take to keep us all updated on these.
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But would you say it was exciting if it was summer that saw all those bar the frost and snow that is. For me seeing gales and rain is just bog standard UK weather and something we endure rather than enjoy, I still like storms but not one after another.So in the last 2 days I've seen: heavy rain, gales, clear sunny skies, calm winds, frost, mist, stormy seas, a very high river, showers, hail, starry skies with a well defined frontal clearance and moonlit CB'S, and a spectacular sunset along with a rainbow.. if that's boring then you're not really interested in most weather types.The only thing i'd prefer perhaps is more frost and snow, although I was lucky enough to spend a few days in Tampere, Finland recently and there was snow cover but much less varied weather.It would be disappointing to not get a proper cold spell with some frost and snow at some point and I may be a bit impatient if nothings happened or about to happen come the end of January, but I'd very much rather have this weather than a cloudy dull Bartlett or high like recently with nothing much happening.
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It's all well and good saying not to moan about our weather but how many would say the same if we had another washout summer with a big fat greeny high and a trough sat over us, would we then say it's exciting.
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ECM screaming southerly tracking LP end of run.........eyes down. Xmas Day, calm, my punt is storm arrives eve and late Boxing Day
BFTP
I'm glad there a few others who see the many positives Fred, I was beginning to think I was viewing model output for another planet over the last few days.
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It's another example of this recent 'extreme' weather as rapid exchanges ( N/S, S/N) occur across the globe. Nobody is prepared to experience such extremes be they unseasonably mild in the northern lands or cold in more southerly places.
We that swing between hot and cold still whinge when we get struck by extremes so why shouldn't they?
But it's got nothing to do with AGW Gray Wolf as it's the exact same thing we discussed regarding other cold records around the NH, or are you now implying it is.
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I certainly would not put much faith in the GFS 12z op run.
Nothing really changed this evening from what I can see apart from
tentative signs of something more promising as we go into 2014
although as I said the GFS run this afternoon is way, way over the
top with regards to northern blocking.
I'm not so sure it is really and maybe it's picking up on the right signals as it's done for the last month or so, the ECM has been absolutely shocking but that's not to say it's not right now though.
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Another upgrade from the models with regards to the jet digging further and further south and east. I've been saying the same for the last few days that next week will see far more favourable conditions for wintry weather from the Midlands northwards. Regardless of the mighty PV we are now seeing tentative signs of a pattern change with heights over the Arctic making more of an impact than first anticipated IMO. Lots too look forward to in the coming days with storms, sleet and snow, the latter becoming more prominent has we move through the Xmas period.
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I love this skin, great idea.
)
Its a stormy enough Christmas as suggested by the computer models
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January 2014 CET forecasts
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Well seen as I'm absolutely hopeless at these predictions and whatever I predict the opposite happens, I'll go for 9.8c.
On a serious note I'm expecting a very wintry first half to January at least, then a milder slot before it turns much colder at the latter end of the month. 2.0c