UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Lol, I'm nicking that one for the next time I play Scrabble.I learned 2 new words today...stochastic parameterisation..I feel clever now, hold on..what does it mean
Looking at the models and I don't see the same despondency as most others here, we have a jet which is looking likely to dive further and further South with time once any fronts push well into Europe. From there we could start too see tentative signs of height rises to our NW towards the months end, yes it's a glass half full viewpoint of the models but least we forget some were talking about a long fetch from the SW only a week ago and look how that prediction went.
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Just want to say a big thanks to all those who contribute here, some fantastic analysis and charts posted.
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I will advise much later this evening as to whether Ops Centre buy the 12z run or modify it to a cross-model consensus.
You'll either be looked upon as Father Christmas or the Grim Reaper, rather you than me.
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The EC32 has been consistent the last few runs, as has already been stated in the MOD thread. And, the trend going into January is for temperatures to be on the colder side of average. I thought you would champion this, not denounce it at every given turn.
Three times in how long though, remember last winter it was consistent as in consistently wrong. I don't rate it one bit and it will take many a more months of it being consistent before I start heaping praise on it. Sick with the 7-10 days time frame and the Strat thread, the rest you can simply follow yourself by looking for trends.
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Indeed I am but I have done everything in my power to have folks understand the group of folk that such a term refers to. In reality it is just a descriptor of the actions of this group of people and ,as such, there is no need to look further than Ms Francis' astute observation of them? They actively seek to mislead the general public about all matters pertaining to climate science and the data it provides us. There is no debate about them and their activities nor about the support ( and direction?) they receive from the folk who fund them. There is no doubt that they have sought to delay global action on mitigating climate change nor that they appear content to continue in this endeavour. The 'Alpine' 20yr cooldown is a perfect example of the type of activity they engage in and the fact it made it to 'posting' here shows just how successful they are in fooling some into believing their stories.
To infer that my thoughts are somehow indoctrinated is no better, what your views are should stay as your views and not one of trying to change the world to fit into your own ideas of what it should be. Just because others are sceptical doesn't make them on par to mass murders ( though this is how you view them ), I've never once seen you post with an open mind to anything regarding our climate which I find totally alien as many proponents of AGW are open to new ideas when the evidence presents itself. I think your at the extreme end of the argument and are the equivalent of a sceptic who denies that any warming has even taken place.
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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76585-manmade-climate-change-discussion/page-62#entry2860990
OK, one last time.
SI in this post you complained about the language of another forum member. You said (of the words 'climate misleaders') "Which is far far more derogatory then anything I've seen posted anywhere else on any forum. "
In this post I pointed out posts you have 'liked' - you can see your name in the lists of 'likes'.
So, I ask, why do you dislike the use of the word 'misleader' so much you find it " far far more derogatory then anything I've seen posted anywhere else on any forum. " but 'like' posts that accuse those who normally frequent this thread of wanting people 'euthanized', of another net weather member here being a 'stalker' and of people elsewhere being 'half wits'?
I am simply trying to understand why you so strongly disapprove of the word misleader but 'liked' the use of the words euthanasia, stalker and half wit? Because, whatever they may be, words like those are not compliments. Indeed I find them to be deeply derogatory...
I still can't find the post your referring to Dev, but whichever one it is I find the constant labelling of being a misleader both tiresome and very inflammatory. I don't mind humorous quips but GW is deadly serious about this terminology.
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All hail the mighty vortex!
Certainly no sign of any northern blocking in our neck of the woods throughout the entire 12z run.
Cracking chart for IMBY, would bring a very disturbed and potentially snowy chart for me.
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I stress that posting the EC32 solutions here in abstracted descriptive sense is not a vouchsafe for outcome matching prognosis. Nonetheless, it paints a clear signal until & through festive period, albeit a minority of members offer 850 temps to -10C into early Jan for Reading ENS plume. Whether this signal is bolstered in further runs next week, we shall see. Either way, I'm uncertain how many folk who readily dismiss EC32 actually have access to the full suite of products to offer informed judgement, but of course we can't reproduce it all freely which I do appreciate is a frustration for those keen to compare it with likes of CFS or into tail-end timeframes of main model DET runs.
My point being though Ian is that come the next update we could be looking at a completely differing signal to the one being presently shown, even the xmas period is at the latter stages of reliability. I would say the only certainty is that it will remain unsettled, but with regards to the jet alignment there's plenty of options available.
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I agree so far so good, but it's constant chopping and changing in the latter stages of its updates kind of renders it's long term use a little redundant. I much prefer the John Holmes way of looking at the 7-10 day as being more often than not right and everything else beyond is a case of looking for trends. The trend I see is one where the jet sinks further and further south over time, what happens next who knows.Hmmm. It's been solid on broad continuity for period up to Xmas over past 3 runs (ditto DECIDER, but in both cases the rapidity and extent of how the Euro high faded were initially unclear). But it's less bullish after New Year, so jury out.
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Until the next EC32 update that is Ian.Yes, CFS isn't ever cited in UKMO analyses. The EC32 pattern retains a westerly flow even by 2nd week Jan, albeit waning. However, the 500mb pattern remains effectively zonal even by then; a fair assumption is that it'll take some major shifting to alter a pattern that resembles much of what we saw in winters pre-07/8.
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Oh I agree any weather related stories should be knocker, but how many stories regarding storms, heatwaves and droughts get the "it's down to AGW" treatment. Remember some were trying to pass St Jude's storm on just that , but luckily the MetO came out and squashed that.http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-45#entry2861004 I would have thought it most unlikely anyone will deign to reply as the post from Kl should be in the extreme weather worldwide thread. it's quite careless to mix them up.
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If it was it would be plastered all over the news as evidence for AGW and a poster on here would certainly be pounding his chest and licking his lips.But not mildest in 60 years is it!!!!
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I'm replying to SI, viz posts he's 'liked' and their wording, which wording I highlighted in another earlier post. Do keep up Pete
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what post are you referring to, you've lost me?http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-44#entry2859433
All of the posts I linked to are 'liked' by you - you had hit the 'like this' button. I assumed that means you approved of them - if not why 'like' them?
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I'm expecting it to be mild in Southern England and South Wales with showers or longer periods of rain, but from the North Midlands Northwards these showers will become more wintry over higher ground with snow to quite low levels in Scotland and possibly the far North of England late in the day. Gales or severe gales for much of the UK with temps ranging from 3c in Scotland to 13c in the SE. Boxing day onwards a change afoot with a trend to much colder conditions developing.
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It certainly was the european alps and K.L. framed it as though ALL of the Alps had been cooling for 20 years and that the news was greeted with 'stunned silence' when presented to scientists.
In fact the 'report' was focused on one area of the bavarian or Austrian Alps and so I presented the forum with weather records, for all the Alps, up until the data set ended in 2003 ( which itself was a record high year above all others!) which was 10 years into this 20 year period.
Sadly an extensive search of both threads shows that this conversation has disappeared. I do not think that this is a fair policy for the moderation team to follow as it was an important illustration of the 'techniques' the Climate Misleaders use in their attempts to confuse and mislead folk interested in our climate changes. I do not blame K.L. for being so fooled by the organisation/publication that brought him the information as their headline was plain and unambiguous. Sadly it was wrong and provoked the now 'removed' conversation.
I think it is very important that the wider readership should be allowed to see that this type of 'Climate misleading' is not just anecdotal but is a reality that even extends to the information the receive from this site ( and other , similar forums) and that they should be more 'sceptical' in their approach to the science by checking the sources of the 'information' and other relevant data pertaining to the subject matter.
To see this whole conversation removed from the section does lead me to wonder as to 'who gains' from it's removal and whether we may be seeing some bias within the moderation of the section ( which would be deplorable when we have been lead to believe management act impartially in this area?).
Which posts were removed GW?
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Thanks for the reply as it isn't a dig at your good self or Matt and I did emphasise myself that you can only comment on what it's output is showing.Ah, the swings; the about-turns... the joys of NWP; and for that matter, the poisoned chalice of trying to offer even a probabilistic approach to a 4-week period!However: EC32 runs Fri and again today paint a pretty consistent story. Equally, DECIDER was already bullishly on the (broadly) SWrly bandwagon into the forseeable. The issue was degree of cyclonic v anticyclonic v unbiased re this. But we can, as I said in previous post, only "tell it as it is."PS - yellow fog warning about to be issued for tonight; areas broadly E of a line joining Wash to New Forest.
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Good to see you back posting Fred, I hope your father is back on the road to recovery now.Looking at the GFS I think its looking like it might have the general idea, I hope so as this HP to our ESE has been more influential than expected keeping the Atlantic at bay. I think once the push comes we'll get some complicated set ups with sub lows swinging in on southerly track with that block to our ESE/E being never far away and may hold up weather fronts over us. Atlantic to control but far from benign ... this is a complicated set up
far from boring imo
BFTP
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But those EC32 chop and change far too frequently to have any sort of confidence in them, granted you can only post what the models show but these show something different every week.I can only vouch for Matt's post, from a wholly neutral perspective re mild/cold aficianados. Ultimately, he's reflecting exactly what today's EC32 output shows - indeed, examination of all 51 of the individual members right through to the end of it's run show scant sign of cold blocks in the de facto sense. Unsurprisingly, the 2m temp anomalies range from mild to eventually a blander average signal by early Jan; similarly, examination of, e.g., Reading ENS plumes show 850's decreasing gradually (as do 500mb heights, incidentally) but never with many members dropping below circa -5C.Ultimately, EC32 (and DECIDER) remains the best tool we have to offer some (even vague) approach to the period going forward, short of speculation and what-if's beyond the realms of it or other models. Consequently, it remains a key product used by UKMO and many other national Met agencies. Now, we all know how things can change (and often do), so in all honesty, I'd hope that the current output is not used as some hickory bat with which to beat-up others on the forum (or oneself) if favouring cold or mild. What will happen, will happen.Clearly, the form horse 'broad-brush' for now (as I outlined for the non model-watchers on BBC Points West) is a continuation of a broadly SW flow, hence often mild (in comparative terms); periodically wetter/windier and also (importantly), as I stressed, periodically chillier given scope for occasional bouts of polar maritime or returning polar maritime flow. However, as I also stressed, no output currently offers an plausible sign of deeper cold incursions; nor (as Matt explains) does EC32 offer any plausible sign of colder blocking patterns within it's present output timeline.Let me be clear: no-one (certainly not at Met O) is ruling in or out any manner of eventual outcome into Jan/Feb. However, for now at least, we can only run with what is in front of our eyes and on our PC screens; and to describe such output without bias or 'hopecast' tendency. The latter is not what we are paid to do but is exactly where forums such as this play a role in debate.Hope the coldies find the 'cherished land' eventually in the winter charts!BestIan
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Well i never saw Ian on telly tonight ,but it totally surprises me that he would write OFF snow at Christmas at this range ,a full two weeks and a day in the future .of course he as the knowledge of charts and info from the met office and is quite rightly in the right to put his thoughts across but at this range i feel that is one hell of a gamble .im pretty sure looking at the charts that we have the Potential for some interesting weather on the run up to Christmas .
Indeed, with an active Atlantic and returning PM air in the mix any talk of writing off the chances of a white xmas for some is a tad premature for sure.
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ic/76585-manmade-climate-change-discussion/?p=2859340
Yes I don't approve of such posts and were have I said I do?
I'm all for humorous replies as sometimes the debate can and does get heated, failing that a PM works wonders as I found with BFTV. Maybe we need to clarify when we are being humorous just to avoid further unnecessary conflict, as emotions do run high at times.
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Won't speak for Ian but from what I've seen and analysed there's some real wishful thinking going on in here. Outcome seems to be a W or SW'ly type for the foreseeable. Scandinavian highs and the likes are certainly an unlikely solution at the moment.M.
With all due respect Matt, it wasn't all that long ago when you was talking about height rises to our NE. So the info you have at your disposal can and does change quite quickly.
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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76585-manmade-climate-change-discussion/?p=2859340
Lol, but it's still ok to label us as climate misleaders, or maybe you couldn't read my post correctly due to the blinkers you was wearing?
Or how about, "yes SI I don't approve of such labelling, but how do you feel with regards to this comment".
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I'm still awaiting member of the Nazi extremist-tipper movement for the full set. Shouldn't be long.
Lol, you do have a sense of humour.
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Good article on climate modelling.
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/25/reflection-on-reliability-of-climate-models/
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Scepticism Of Man Made Climate Change
in Climate Change
Posted · Edited by Paul
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76585-manmade-climate-change-discussion/?p=2862348
Well for starters GW the PDO went negative in September 2007 as I've posted countless times ( with evidence ) and secondly it's well documented that each cycle lasts around the 30 year mark, so by my estimations we'll be looking at around 2037, possibly a few years earlier before a switch. Now within these cycles we still get nino's and nina's annually but the nina's are far more prominent in the cool cycle and vice versa.