UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Yep,its very confusing and a bit concerning this morning steve.
The GFS is blinkin awful but looking at the ensembles it does look a wild outlier from ver early on,that said,maybe the rest of the pack are behind the 8ball.
UKMO is also poor moving forward,probably a 24 to 36 hour special and not a great deal to be excited about either for most.
That leaves the ecm,normally i'd be delighted to have the ECM on board but its poor form in the last fail has left me questioning its reliabilty to be honest,this will be a big test of its supremacy.
really dont know how to feel this morning,probably concerned is the best way to describe it..
Until the UKMO are on board then all talk of a wintry wonderland this time next week need to be kept in check, the form horse does still looks like 2-3 days of cold uppers at least, with snow more than likely for our Scottish friends more so those towards the NW. The rest of us well it's a case of more data is needed, on the plus side there's still lots of time for upgrades, downgrades and lots in-between.
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I don't as I view all extreme events as just weather, nothing more nothing less. I leave the scaremongering, doommongering and conjecture to the Mystic Meg's of this world.http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-42#entry2849147 And just for the record. A quick glance at the link in the quote is worthwhile. What I find rather odd is skeptics are continually making unfounded accusations that AGW proponents link every extreme event with AGW and then cite the very same to disprove it. LOL http://www.climatecentral.org/news/snow-cover-may-help-usher-in-historic-cold-to-northwest-16787
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Uppers would be fine as would dew points, even coastal areas would see sleet/wet snow. That's for the North and NW areas.You think the uppers will be cold enough at -6/-8 or are we looking at marginal conditions away from the peaks etc?
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How would you know that?
I'm using my mystical powers that can foretell future events as I'm always right aren't I, aren't I.
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Fantastic charts for cold and snow for IMBY and other NW parts of the UK, the usual caveats apply though in these cases at this range, with the danger of all this being shunted further East nearer the time. Just for once lets hope not and instead lets see further upgrades for longevity next. Please weather gods be kind to us all, more so for those of us in the NW.
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Yep, better uppers likely this time if it verifies of course. Have I seen too many topplers in my time ? Surprised a few knowledgeable sorts in the MO thread can't read the charts.
It's not set in stone yet Ian, yes we'll be looking at 2-3 days of cold uppers and the potential of snow for many of us in the NW. It's the thereafter which I'm sceptical about, as I see no return to a westerly based Atlantic onslaught or a benign mild set up like we have now. The upstream pattern is certainly not following any scripts for a west based QBO and a strong PV.
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Well, why shouldn't he 'stick to his theories'?
I love cold, snowy weather; but I don't like being hyped into a frenzy of expectation about things that seldom verify...
But you take climate models at face value.
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Sounds like they expect a Winter similar to some of those during the 1988-2008 period - a coldish December followed by a mild January and February.
Will be interesting to see what TWO's forecast will suggest when it goes online tomorrow?
It looks like it's suggesting a Euro high from January, still it's just another LRF and I'm not the biggest fan of them and when looking at WSI record it's patchy to say the least, but no worse than any others.
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Furthermore to the last post it is worth demonstrating how strong the wave 1 activity has to be before we really see significant vortex displacement.
Looking so far this year we can see that there have been a number of bursts of stronger wave 1 activity. The strongest was at the start of the year and was responsible for the well predicted and monitored SSW in January ( see below). The second burst was not as strong but was very significant - at the start of March just as the vortex was recovering and we all know what happened after that. This autumn we have seen some smaller bursts of wave 1 activity - but nothing out of the ordinary - but I suspect that the next round will be stronger still.
Also included below is the mean zonal mean wind anomaly chart which demonstrates quite nicely the propagation of the negative mean zonal winds from the top of the strat to the trops - note the recharge at the start of March from the wave 1 activity.
Maybe something to keep an eye on for the later part of December perhaps.
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To say that we should not be worrying about the GIN (corridor of death) area is unbelievable Steve, pre-2009 or not, cyclogenesis in this area is the well established quick fire route to end a Northerly. The most important thing to remember here is that shortwaves developing at the Eastern end of the jet streak will not be picked up until this is around T120 on the NWP.
The GFS has a better formation of pressure rise in the first place than the ECM, and there will be changes to come from both models as this comes into the higher resolution but remember when LP has broken the link between HP in the Atlantic and Greenland OR when lower heights have crossed the Greenland plateau, it’s game over for our Northerlies.
I have to agree with Ian here as this isn't about pre 2009 as one can view the archives and find similar patterns which failed to materialise back in 60s, 70s and 80s due to cyclogenesis in the corridor of death. Fascinating model watching all the same and as enjoyable as ever reading Steve's reasonings.
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Hi,
The idea that runs should only be compared relative to the previous output (0z to 0z, 12z to 12z) due to infinitesimally small (magnitudes of 10th/%) idiosyncrasies in data, doesn't stack up. Even if there were data blind spots (often happens) you either run algorithms to blend and normalise it, or you back-fill with prior cleansed 'control' data. The overriding error correction is the updated observational data, which is the precursor to every initialisation.Therein, to discount any run even though it contains perhaps 98% of all operational data, is not advisable. I could sympathise with such a view if such data blind spots brought the scope down to <85-90%, but that simply isn't the case. I often find intra-run variance to be, in the main, anecdotal; for example, verification against the GFS suite (0z, 6z, 12z, 18z) doesn't actually tend to favour any one particular initialisation - they all have, more or less, periods of better performance over each other - which, to be fair, is exactly what you'd expect from a stochastic model.
The matter of data density is only a considerable factor when a critical mass is breached insofar as there is a lack of initialisation variables. For that to happen, there would need to be a serious lack of data (balloons, buoys, aircraft, nautical) and it's very unlikely that would ever happen. I'm not sure what the operational parameters are to initialise GFS, but ECM is >= 98.25%. To give context around that, I think I've read in papers that the average over the last three years is about 99.6%. So, it's a very stable base state model. I think it dropped to just below 99% when there was disruption to air traffic post eruption of Eyjafjallajokull.
So to surmise, yes some runs lack data relative to others, but it's proportionate weight against that of the depth is what matters. Equally, any such data gaps can be and often are rendered over with algorithms, to help with calculation smoothing. You tend to get a value spat out at the end of an initialisation which will evaluate confidence in the starting parameter values, and if that's within a tolerance then you can generally have confidence in the run. I know that's how the developers parse layer code into the stack, and judge its consequential effect.
Hope that helps,
SB
I had to read this three times before it sunk in, well I think it sunk in.
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Great effort Ed and the greatest compliment I could pay you is that technically it's on par with anything I've seen posted by GP. Of course as a coldie I hope your forecast is wrong as it's not severe enough, but good luck all the same.
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I would disagree, I would think any northerly next week will be the last such cold shot for some time, we have a poor set-up but have avoided full on zonality for a couple of weeks through low heights over Europe and some amplification in the Pacific. You would bet against that sustaining and as someone said earlier 'the big purple blob' should soon be settled over Southern Greenland with the attendant height rise over Europe.
Ian you've been singing from the same hymn sheet for the last few weeks but we have still yet to see full on zonality. I think your analysis is made with preconceived ideas pre 2009, of course you could be right and we may end up under a long fetch from the Atlantic with the PV anchored over it's favourite location. As ever with these situations time will tell.
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Is it me or is anyone else sick to death of reading vortex this or vortex that, yes it's an important player but cold spells can and do develop with a strong PV. Back to the models and having been out all day I've only just caught up with todays goings on and as some rightly point out we've still got 200+ hours to go and we all know that's an awful long time for things to change, but with my squinty eyes all I see is another upgrade for next week for both duration and strength of the projected cold blast. I see no reason why we can't squeeze out at least 5-7 days of cold and potentially wintry synoptics, who knows what can happen thereafter.
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Hi Paul,I really can't stand this new mobile skin. Is there a way I can get it back to the one prior to the update?Thanks
Bottom left of the homepage BT, click on the box for the old skin.
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I agree he's a snake in the grass, but luckily I take about as much notice of his ilk as I do with the fanatical side of AGW supporters. Both are a waste of bandwidth and oxygen.Only justed watched through this an it's very upsetting esp. if you have lost a parent/grandparent/aunt/uncle/sibling to smoking related disease only to see both faces and tactics, used back then, doing exactly the same today...... just substituting 'smoking' with 'climate change'......
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been watching the drama unfold again as you can see last nights delights where replaced by yet another deflated set of runs not a lot going to happen and its looking likely that up until mid December the general theme will be uneventful its getting rather boring to be honest even above average and gales would at least be a little more exciting.
but the models are even not sure on this.
I think jan will be a better month as I don't see no blocking to our ne or our nw until the vortex changes I think the drama will continue and emotional rollercoaster it certainly is.
Lets hope January delivers for you then as I fear for your sanity otherwise.
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The EC32 model has gone back to a settled / high pressure outlook well into December
Some support from the CFSv2 but latest EC32 back on the high pressure trail, with a particularly settled/high pressure outlook well into Dec
And from Ian Fergusson on Twitter
the Met Office lean towards a slightly colder than average winter in their latest (Nov 21) assessment.
So the ECM 32 flips again, it truly is woeful IMO and even with upgrades it continues to pick up differing signals on a weekly basis.
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Nice to have your input, I personally think your view of December will be very close to the mark. What interests me for later on is the continual trend of ridging in the Pacific and blocking over the Alaska region which the long range models are bullish about through December and even into 2014. I personally think we will start to see more wintry effects over our side of the pole once the Strat temperatures bottom out and the Westerly QBO starts to wane a bit, hence a better chance of disrupting and splitting the tropospheric polar vortex.
I'm not so sure that the QBO is all that relevant IMO as when one looks back at the analogues we've experienced both cold and mild winters in a Westerly QBO. For me it's no more important than any other forcing and I think this winter will catch many a good forecaster out as a result of relying on conflicting signals.
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Read it again as I didn't suggest a sustained cold spell, merely a watered down version of January 84.Im afraid your either viewing it incorrectly or through rose tinted glasses. I can't see any evidence for a sustained cold spell at the moment. I think a repeating pattern including occasional Northerly topplers is the best we can expect in the next few weeks.
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I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:
http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm
Lol. the words lead and balloon spring to mind with how most will view that Gibby. I'm expecting the polar opposite to yours with a significant cold spell arriving the latter half of December lasting throughout the majority of January, with the mildest month of the winter coming in February.
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Not to shabby for the end of December and beyond.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartscfsukavmaxweek.php?chart=cfses4avmaxukweek5.gif
Looks even better the the week after.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartscfsukavmaxweek.php?chart=cfses4avmaxukweek7.gif
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Not to shabby for the end of December and beyond.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartscfsukavmaxweek.php?chart=cfses4avmaxukweek5.gif
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Maybe I'm viewing the output incorrectly but I see the potential of another January 1984 developing from around the first week of December, maybe not the longevity of that spell which around these parts gave us over two weeks of cold and snow.
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted