UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Can't say as I have, Ali; I refuse to pay for twaddle...
So you can't really comment then?
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Anyone?How would this work fit into differing UV output which IMO is the key into the poleward movement of the Hadley Pressure Cell?
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Indeed, I've seen nearly as much snow this month as I have since December 2010. The outlook is looking quite good for those in the North with plenty of exciting weather in the next two weeks on offer.Thought I had entered the moaning thread after reading the first few pages of this thread...Feel a bit sorry for folk who have not seen any weather this month. Fantastic December here so far - Severe gales, snow, fog, frost, thunderstorm, temperature of 14 degrees...and more excitement over the next few days - Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:Much colder with gales and snow showers on Thursday. Heavy rain later Friday. Brighter with showers on Saturday frequent in west. Gales, perhaps severe at times.Issued at: 1600 on Tue 17 Dec 2013
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How would this work fit into differing UV output which IMO is the key into the poleward movement of the Hadley Pressure Cell?Thanks for the great link, Sebastiaan. From reading that it would appear great news that Judah Cohen has approached them to enter a future collaboration. It certainly seems that they are onto something and this could be groundbreaking for long term winter forecasting. Note the colder February hinted at for the UK but stong vortex conditions likely early Jan. The thing is, and this is more regarding longer term forecasts, is that I feel we have been close to making a breakthrough for a while now and the work of those such as Stewart Rampling who have always suggested that long wave patterns are not simply random, but can be predicted and re-occur time and time again when the starting teleconnective conditions are the same will be vindicated in their thoughts. The Italians seem to been able to analyze the autumnal vortex conditions and have used this to be able to predict the following winter vortex state, And so far this winter their prediction correlates very well. It is a pity that we see so many longe range hopecasts out there that do a lot to denigrate from the work of the true researchers. The Italians work still has to be published and peer reviewed and so until this occurs we should be more cautious, but the fact that they have predicted this winter in advance will give us some kind of mark to judge the authenticity of their work without peer review. Interestingly, their own winter forecast does fit in with the previous analogue composite years that I have used to base NW winter forecasts - again, it will be interesting to see how this plays out as I am a strong believer in the predictability of repeated patterns and that the butterfly effect may not be quite as true as initially thought .
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Looks like a brief cold snap around Xmas for a few days before it turns mild again in the run up to new years.
I'm not so sure it will brief as the models are constantly upgrading. Remember we've gone from a long fetch from the SW, then relentless mild zonality to what is being modelled now, this in the space of just over a week
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For such a dire set up I awoke to a dusting of snow this morning. Far too much negative spin put on the the model output, sure if you live in the South it's not so good but for a lot of others the outlook has a wintry look to it.No real change in the NWP today - strong vortex, +AO, strong jet, heights to the S/SE are likely to continue through the holiday period. Others will put some optimistic spin but things are really pretty grim if you're a 'coldie' and live in lowland Britain. The big worry now is when will a pattern change occur - we've all seen this kind of setup with a raging PV stick for a long time. Time will tell I guess...
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A dusting of snow here on cars and shady areas, not much but a nice surprise.
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For the first major cold snap look no further than P6 GEFS 12z...sensational snowfest charts for almost a week and freezing cold for many areas with the PFJ ending up across north africa..this run would bring a very merry christmas for all my fellow coldies...BANK
Would be an absolute belter that Frosty, proving you can make a silk purse from a sows ear if it was to come off that is.
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My views on easterlies are well known in the regional threads Nick, bar 96,91 and 78/79 none of them have delivered diddly squat here. Sorry for being off topic Mods, I'll slap my wrist and promise I won't do it again. :-)I think you'll need some altitude, maybe you're high up but the GFS at that range in this type of set up has a known bias for overdoing the southwards extent of cold. I'm surprised you think its the best set up since December 2010, I can understand easterlies being a let down in your area and suspect you need a nw component to deliver but maybe I'm hard to please but I'm still underwhelmed.
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That looks like a possibility Nick, but we all know just how those SW can wreck such dreams. Still at least we're viewing charts that show such possibilities instead of what was on offer this time last week.Cold zonality yes is rare but you can't sustain it without some blocking to the n/ne, maybe if the PV chunk goes east and stays there that might open up an opportunity.
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The problem is at this range shortwave activity near Iceland won't be picked up, so on the face of it although that chart looks interesting I'd certainly be wary of getting too excited over that GFS.
Its less of a problem with a proper Greenland block but in this type of set up those shortwaves often pop up and stop the colder air from making it as far south as the GFS suggests.
The interest earlier is how far south the jet can come, the horseshoe low heights set up is condusive to some sinking as theres a relaxation over the northern chunk of Greenland and the Siberian ridge is helping things. The lower resolution GFS is a bit messy really with the PV moving east and then back west again, as it moves the pattern will flatten out somewhat.
Not bad in the higher resolution in terms of the trend, still nothing majorly wintry standing out though.
For IMBY those charts look better than anything since December 2010, granted they may not bring a cold spell but at least I may see some snow out of such a set up and maybe even some lying snow for a couple of days.
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Always been a half full person but it is a stuggle a present thats for sure based on current model out put.
Yep tonights model output has taken a huge slurp out of my half full glass.
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Interannual variations of the mass balance of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets from GRACE 2006
Measurements of Time-Variable Gravity Show Mass Loss in Antarctica 2006
Ice-sheet mass balance: assessment, attribution and prognosis 2007
Recent Sea-Level Contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets 2007
Role of Antarctic ice mass balance in present-day sea-level change 2008
Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE 2009
Ice sheet mass balance and sea level 2009
I had intended to continue this on to 2013, but I'm running out of time! I might update the list later this evening.
A simple google scholar search of Antarctic Mass Balance yields a huge array of papers and conference abstracts though.
Thanks BFTV, I'll have to catch up on all of this tomorrow as there is far too much to take in for this old man.
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The Zwally one (conference abstract) has been posted by Mikeworst, 4wd and was posted again by someone else in the last month, can't quite remember who.
The studies suggesting Antarctica is losing mass are numerous, would you like me to post some?
I haven't read any of it so I can't comment so yes please.
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Just a question. If that Zwally et al presentation suggesting a net gain in Antarctic ice mass from 2003-08 is worthy of posting again and again here, what's wrong with the numerous studies suggesting the opposite?
What is different with the Zwally et al study that it wasn't influenced by (the AGW sceptic claims of) the drive for grant money, faulty peer review system, left wing anti-capitalist agenda, or whatever other excuses are used for dismissing most peer reviewed or conference data? Why is this study impervious to all that?
Which study is that BFTV?
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I'm holding fire but if we don't start to see some better looking charts being modelled come the New Year then personally I'm not that bothered about a cold February as in my fifty years of being here, none of them bar two have produced anything in the way of lying snowfall or lasting deep cold IMBY.
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BwaHaHaHa
Lol, just you wait when this summer see HLB and big trough centred right over the UK.
Edit; That was meant for Gaz.
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Yes i would expect many changes to the GFS predictions for Christmas period and beyond and at 4 runs per day we could see everything including the kitchen sink ,two hours till ECM is out will this keep us glued , but a lot of weather to come and interesting times so its eyes down gang ,
Bar HLB, that's exactly what we will see.
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This global warming lark is getting really out of hand now ( awaiting all the daft "well ya,the increased moisture content of the atmosphere will lead to more precipitation which statistically gives a higher probability of snow falling in any given location just as we expected yadda yadda"). Sigh.
The powers that be are already busy writing the peer reviewed paper on this right now.
Okm this takes the p**s now, there's snow almost down to Sharm al Sheik!!!!!!!
NW Europe looks very grim, it kind of reminds me of 1974 that december also brought similar conditions across NW Europe, though Egypt didn't see snow like now.
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What a turn around from GFS this afternoon from the Christmas day storm to a very quiet and mild one
Lol, yes it's the polar opposite of what's been shown previously. A new trend or one for the bin?
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Well the MO forecast posted by Mr Frost is far more indicative of my post SI. This goes out to the 30th, which is very much the latter end of the period model wise and they sum the temps us thus.... It should still be mild.
Yes they go onto mention colder, showery interludes, especially later, but again that just emphasises the points I was making.
Unfortunately I just can't see how you or anyone else can look at the current outputs and make an equal case for cold or mild, not even longer term IF the latest GFS is correct, but perhaps I'm missing something.
Again I'm saying the overall picture is not one of mild or cold and with time the jet does look like dropping further and further south. Of course this all FI and by next week the trend could be something completely different, good or bad.
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Yes SI, fair point re months end, however I must also ask you to read my post correctly, as I simply stated 'but at least as far as ambient air temps are concerned it will be on the mild side generally,' Moreover your contention that 'more a case of alternating mild and cold with cold becoming more dominant in the latter stages' is rather misleading imo. There is not one day on any model that could be considered 'cold', in fact even the coldest days shown are average to rather cold at best. Finally when looking at the daily mean temps, that lack of any real overnight low mimima is likely to result in values of 2-4c above the mid Dec average, which equates pretty much to this... 'but at least as far as ambient air temps are concerned it will be on the mild side generally,'
I was referring to the latter stages again, but the overall picture is neither mild nor cold Shed, hence my average comment as we will see daily temps fluctuate from slightly above average to slightly below more so for those North of the Midlands and then as the jet sinks Southwards, below average temps would effect more southern areas with time.
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Well maybe you need to read my post again Shed because I did say towards the latter end of the month. IMO there isn't a single chart that is showing a mild spell of weather, more a case of alternating mild and cold with cold becoming more dominant in the latter stages. It's far far removed from December 2011, then there was no positives to take forward whatsoever. The outlook is unsettled, windy ( stormy at times ) and average with the emphasis on the jet diving South around Xmas time. Of course those in the south of the country will just see copious amounts of rain, but there is more to the UK than here you know.Got to say as a cold weather lover SI I just don't get comments like this, indeed it's difficult to imagine a more dire set up for protracted cold than the current one. Yes the models appear to want to shunt the Jet ever further south, but even by Xmas Eve it's still firmly sat on it's big fat buttocks right over the Alps, with only tentative signs that it might consider moving on towards New Year. OK the odd 12-36hr shot of Pm air might make if feel it bit more seasonal at times, but at least as far as ambient air temps are concerned it will be on the mild side generally, especially across the southern half of the UK.
Frosty said in an earlier post that it will feel more like Winter and it's hard to argue with that, but only because Winter in the UK is essentially wet and windy....unfortunately Winter from a wintry perspective still looks a very long way away and as such the current despondancy over this remains fully justified imho..
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And now they post error ridden charts from an open sourced alleged science thread. For those interested in the PDO may I suggest looking into this for yourselves at independent studies and not agenda ridden ones. The cycle lasts from around 25-30 years and this turned negative in September 2007' see previous link for that.
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
Not the answer I was expecting but one I fully understand due to the infancy of any research into this area.