UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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CH, I'm in touch with a couple of guys who used to be on the Easternwx forums in the US. They are comparing with the PV strength with some of those late 80s/late 90s winters, potentially a record breaking +ve AO in January.
Could this be down to the exceptional cold pattern over the States as I would imagine that would fuel any Cyclogenesis exiting the eastern seaboard?
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Unfortunately to get cold upper air into the UK you need a favourable vortex positioning, you might manage an inversion even with mild uppers under high pressure but that's it. There is no way to transport cold out of the Arctic with the PV stuck to the north, vortex positioning, orientation, whether its split is crucial for cold into the UK. You can manage a decent easterly even with an evil looking PV but this has to be aligned favourably much further to the nw.
Simply put if someone said that the PV will remain in one and stuck to the north of the UK near southern Greenland then its easy to make a forecast, indeed if someone drew a global map of the NH just showing the vortex positioning/ orientation and whether its one or split it would be relatively easy to fill in the gaps with the synoptics.
Sadly Barry the PV is the King when it comes to winter patterns.
I disagree as there a number of ways of getting a cold spell to these shore with the PV in it's usual place, of course 9/10 we do need it to play ball.
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That it's been snowing. Seems to fit the mindset.
Well at least snow can lay on a sceptics head though I seriously doubt it would on proponents of AGW, what with all that heat escaping on top due to a lack of insulation in the noggin area.
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'I'm sorry but for obvious reasons nobody mentioned minds, closed or otherwise. This is again evidenced by the intriguing fact that you can seek answers without reading the science out there. Surely a Prima Facie case of a 'mind' fixated by an unsubstantiated ideology, already made up and presumed to have the answers already.'
Knocker I do not consider the trot ladled out by the sites I mentioned as science. Just saying. Of course what you have just stated could equally be applied to yourself. Just saying again, nothing personal.
I've probably read more of the official stance than your good self Mike, it's just that I'm not taken in by conjecture and a global dataset which tells us that even though CO2 continues to rise unabated, global temps remains as you were.
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Just to add to my last post.....some people seem to think that the only way out of this pattern is via a zonal reset. That's not the case at all- if conditions become favourable upstream then it's still possible for a developing Scandi high or pressure rises out west/northwest. A zonal spell will be symptomatic of a poor set up rather than of a gateway to wintry nirvana.
Indeed but unfortunately for us it's a waiting game and one which may still lead us up the garden path.
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Right to the end of November CFS was still showing high pressure dominating to the north of the UK thats not look likely at this stage
Just goes to show CFS is no better or worse than any other model
Indeed Gav, it may well have got March right but it's been way off the mark since then. Just goes to show you may as well look at tea leafs and seaweed and you'll still stand a better chance than long range models.
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"I find it rather amusing that the intellectuals in the other thread are doing exactly what they are accused of. When lacking any substantial science to support their ideological stance they resort to vacuous rhetoric. I await their debut with the literati in WUWT with baited breath. Assuming of course they are not already be there".
I agree, far better to extract drivel from Wotts. Hotwopper and sceptical science. /sark
Your in the wrong thread worst mike. So you don't read both sides of the argument and science such as Bob Tisdale, Judith Curry etc, etc, or are you another closed minded individual who can only digest what he is told rather than seek answers?
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Its 17 years old that picture, you need a new one to reflect the modern times of no further warming for nearly 20 years!This piece of proxy science is as good as anything else the knotted knicker brigade has produced.
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I rarely read WUWT as unlike your good self I can think for myself thank you. Edit; on my iPhone why can't I quote this post in the appropriate thread, it keeps turning up here?I find it rather amusing that the intellectuals in the other thread are doing exactly what they are accused of. When lacking any substantial science to support their ideological stance they resort to vacuous rhetoric. I await their debut with the literati in WUWT with baited breath. Assuming of course they are not already be there.
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I won't be on much folks as rushed to Swansea as my dad is critical condition on itu. Very westerly month ahead is more or less sewn up
I'll pop in in ten days or so
regards
BFTP
Hope he pulls through Fred.
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Over on the self haters thread ( only joking
) some are getting there frilly knickers in a twist over the likes Watts and co, I wonder if we could lay the blame at their door for the ongoing pause in global surface temps. -
Looking at the output and I have to say it's a dogs dinner if it's a deep cold spell your after, I see no signs of a change for the foreseeable and in fact I wouldn't at all be surprised if and when a change does come about it will be of the mild and wet variety. As for wave activity this and vortex that, all I know is that the Northern arm of the jet is just far too strong and until we see that subside any hopes of a sustained cold spell are but just a dream.
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According to Eno Equator or whatever she's called on the North West weather there's a chance of a bit of hill snow tomorrow.Or at least I think that's what was said because to be honest she's the worst weather presenter I've ever heard.
Agreed, she makes Diane Oxo look professional. If she was the best they could find I wouldn't have liked to see those rejected.
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A great consecutive model run from the GEM0z today prompting a cold scenario but equally a poor showing from the ECWMF0z operational and its ensembles, also poor from the GFS6z ensembles.
As for my opinion on the GEM, i do actually rate it. I've followed it and done checks at day 10 and its held its own against the Euro and GFS, closer i do acknowledge the lead that those and the UKMO have within 144 hours but as a trend spotter its as good as the GFS.
My personal opinion despite the doom and gloom from some people is that the -GLAAM drop and continued wave breaking will present an opportunity between the 15th and 25th for blocking to occur to our north so i can see where the GEM is coming from although it's almost certainly too optimistic. Equally however i think both the Euro and GFS ensembles (and the Euro operational) are being far too progressive and as such i would put the GFS6z operational as the most likely outcome with pressure remaining pretty high over the UK through day 10.
My own percentages would be something like..
GFS6z Operational: 45%
GFS and Euro ensemble mean (plus Euro operational): 30%
GEM: 20%
Other: 5%
I agree with your timing on a change to a more blocked and cold spell, though I just can't see how we will get HLB at this moment in time?
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Well at this current time the outlook is pretty dross for us coldies, I suppose the best we can hope for is the EC32 painting a mild and zonal outlook.
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This is misleading... The North of England isn't predicted to be bone dry. Just southern areas south of Birmingham with a few dry days.
I count 4 dry days for Southern Area's below :-)
Atacama it is not.
Back to the model output or shall I say lack of interesting things to talk about. I still can't see heights becoming established over Scandinavia within the next 10 days at least, the weather really does look very benign for the foreseeable but one thing it doesn't look is mild except perhaps NW Scotland and Ireland, average at best and below average for the SE.
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Anyone fancy a 1070mb Greeny high ?
All options appear to be on the table from mid month, though I doubt very much a greenland high will be one of them cometh the hour.
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the thing about the ensembles and co is they change a lot. Yesterday ian f said all pointers were looking at an easterly . Now its not. What will it show come sat? Nobody knows . If the models change. The forecasts change. Simple as that. 3 days ago the bbc were bigging up this cold snap. Now theres no mention. Why? Because the models have downgraded it. Every forecast out there is fickle . As well as the models .
I think the whole ens and co have been woeful, I've never seen so much chopping and changing in such a short period of time, that goes for the alleged newly revamped EC32 as well.
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Can anyone give me a link to RJS' winter forecast please? Ta muchly.
Just scroll down.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-21
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Thanks for the info with regards to the QBO, I wasn't too sure myself hence the question mark.
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Can't see how last winter can back you up? Both January and February were below average for the CET even by 1961-90 values and then came March!Granted March is a spring month but it was anything but a spring month!
He also forgot to mention the winter of 2009/10 which was the coldest for over a hundred years. Still why let the facts get in the way of a good old wind up.
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That is one crumb of comfort for us coldies as the models have been very volatile over the last week or two swinging from one scenario to another, in fact this is the worst I've seen them perform past the +120 mark.Correct, and until this has been resolved people should hold off writing off the next couple weeks for cold weather. Statements such as "no other possibilities" based on only a few runs are jumping the gun a little. Even the METO are leaning to the East during the run up to Christmas.
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I know one poster other than Gav who'll be happy at what's being modelled and that's Roger J Smith, if these charts verified that is.Thanks Ian, to be honest to get to those positive anomalies I would have thought the foundation has to be laid within the 240hrs mark. Anyway given the huge differences between tonights ECM 12hrs and last nights I think we had better wait till tomorrow. I'm rather dubious of tonights ECM, at worst I expected a continental se'rly flow for the UK with an inversion type scenario, certainly not BBQ and t-shirt weather!
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To be honest I really can't see anything other than a Rex block at best in the 10-14 day timeframe and even then I would be hesitant. I think we could be looking at more of the same really with heights if anything slowly sinking SE.
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) some are getting there frilly knickers in a twist over the likes Watts and co, I wonder if we could lay the blame at their door for the ongoing pause in global surface temps.
Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
I remember January 84 was such a chart Nick, granted it only effected the Midlands Northwards but it brought about a two week cold spell with copious amounts of snow. Hopefully someone can confirm this with some charts from back then.