UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Oh good the rains going to get colder.
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Damp squib are the best words I can describe for that forecast! Clock is ticking away.....
I'm fast losing interest in this winter, personally I feel we could have to wait until med Feb onwards for any sustained cold, if at all.
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And to answer your earlier Q John, trend being 10-15 days, short lived cold
MO says "All output then does agree later in the period for a return to more mobility in the trend period, biased this time to the NW."Lol, we've just wasted 72 hours of chasing phantom easterlies, again. Looks like the MetO cautionary approach was fully justified with the majority of the UK just seeing a colder but still a wet week and then the prospects of more unsettled but milder weather. Roll on spring!
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UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Jan 2014 to Thursday 23 Jan 2014:
On Tuesday there will be some rain over northeast Scotland and showers in the west and southwest. However eastern parts are likely to be fine and dry, with frost and a risk of fog patches at first. Strong winds and further rain, heavy at times, are likely to spread from the southwest during Wednesday. Through the week it may become cold in the northeast, with strong easterly winds and wintry showers. Western and southwestern parts are probably going to be less cold and cloudier with further rain. Later in the month it is likely to become less cold and more changeable, with sunny spells and showers or longer periods of rain, these perhaps more likely in the northwest.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington-darlington#?tab=regionalForecast
Well that's not the update I was looking for, in fact I'm starting to think that this winter will go the way of the last two around these parts.
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East/west biases on this forum are possibly colouring the views of some members (I do exactly the same). Members in the west won't be happy with today's runs for obvious reasons, while eastern members are probably more relaxed about them. IMO we need to see the whole shebang shunt a bit west because it's too risky a setup at the moment, even here in the east. Certainly a general downgrade today so far, although it could quite easily revert.
@JohnHolmes – it's the model thread so it's perfectly valid to comment on the progged location and type of ppn, the thumping caveat that ppn forecasts at this range are unreliable notwithstanding. My fear at the moment is that the North Sea gets smashed by snow while the UK gets yet another soaking.
That's a very nasty little update from Fergie. Not good news for coldies.
I think Ian is just reiterating how much uncertainty remains in the outlook.
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Agree, but it can also spring up out of nowhere and tomorrow we could be looking at the first signs of one emerging.It is called sudden because of the sharp increase in stratospheric temperatures and the reversal of zonal winds but it can be forecasted well in advance. But I agree, that if we get this cold spell it will be a bonus.Karyo
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Isn't that why it's called sudden though, let's get the cold in place first then worry about how long and how cold.The vortex is certainly not in its last legs. If you check the stratosphere charts at 30hpa you will see that after a few wobbles it gets it's act together again and I think it has more than enough strength to push any block out of the way. The block only has a small window of opportunity to bring the cold to us before the Atlantic takes over again.We need a major stratospheric warming to finish off the vortex but it is not forecasted in the next 384 hours. Karyo
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The ECM is a little bit different to the UKMO but has our margin for error insurance upstream, its more amplified and overall I'm about to faint ! The ECM is wow!
Yes Nick and I may have to review my thoughts on Easterlies delivering the square root of Jack to these parts, awesome chart!
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Thats winter for you things can change rapidly if everything falls into place
Yes but not in a space of 48 hours, remember the ECM32?
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If the GFS and UKMO do verify then the potential for disruptive snow initially from the Midlands Northwards Monday-Wednesday thereafter those further South, must be high on the agenda for next week. What is quite remarkable is how quickly this has upgraded from a block to our East and being a slow burner to a potential wintry week ahead.
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Afraid not, they have reverted to average into February, I have to say this was what I was fearing with the lack of further strat warmings in FI on recent runs.
UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Jan 2014 to Thursday 6 Feb 2014:Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting late in January, they are not expected to be as stormy as the start of the month. This would mean outbreaks of rain mainly affecting northwestern parts of the UK, spreading further southeast at times but tending to weaken. The best of the dry and brighter weather should remain in the southeast. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly inbetween weather systems, but overall temperatures may well remain near normal.
Updated: 1159 on Wed 8 Jan 2014
It's unusual to see so many changes in their outlook over a few days. I wouldn't despair as all the models bar Carinthian's Austrian model have been all over the place this last week or two. I expect lots more upgrades, downgrades and upgrades again over the next few weeks.
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Wish the met office were, perhaps tomorrow they will be. The models so far today are by far the most wintry since last spring.. Makes me wonder how wintry the models have to look before the met office react.
I would say when there is consistency over a few days, I mentioned over in the MetO thread that I would expect them to come on board by Friday if the models are still on the money for cold.
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Flip to a northerly?
Actually he did mention that a Northerly was one of the options yesterday.
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It will be an interesting met office 30 dayer today but an even more interesting 16 day update!, it might be fun at times chasing Scandinavian highs, often stressful but even more stressful for senior forecasters entrusted with these updates and even worse for ones issuing warnings when the timeframe gets nearer.
I think any updates will come towards the end of this week as we all know just how volatile easterlies can be. so I think they'll play this one safe until they are certain in jumping of the fence.
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I don't see the increased solar activity as something positive for cold! It may help to trigger a SSW (although it is not guaranteed) but in the long run it means that the jet stream will be further north and discourage cold outbreaks.Karyo
I think when we have a west based QBO then higher solar output tends to favour SSW, or so the stats say. I'm sure one of our many resident experts will give you a far more scientific explanation than mine however.
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Nearly every post on this page already talking about the end of a cold spell/snap that only reared it's head today! You have to laugh.
Indeed, and if one looks at the output this time last week a cold snap/spell next week wasn't even on the cards. Just shows how the weather can make fools out of most of us.
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Excellent cross model agreement but what impresses me more is how accurate Carinthian's updates have been throughout this winter, and why are the models that they use so much better than anything else at picking up features weeks in advance.
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Well we've seen some cracking output this evening but I remain very cautious when anything from the East is forecast, more so when it's a Scandi high as these often fail to push far enough westwards across the UK leaving those out in the West still under an Atlantic regime much like we've seen the past two winters. Leaving the pessimism aside from an IMBY perspective and I'm still more than pleased at what is being offered, in fact I really think we could be in for a stonking February with a trough to our SW and heights to our NE with or without a SSW event although we will still need too see strong wave activity attacking the PV.
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On the other hand, modelling sometimes underestimates pressure rises to the E/NE
True, but that's when we've an established block in place with the Atlantic trying to break through, here we have the block trying to get a foothold with the Atlantic trying to push through.
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Not could change at 168hrs Nick, it will change at 168hrs; let’s hope it’s for the better. I hate seeing good synoptics at this range they are frequently wasted, they downgrade more often than upgrade and this one is going the way of the pear, good job none of tonight’s runs are Stella, there’s plenty of room to go either way.
We had better hope the ECM is not out scoring the GFS this evening as I would suggest the GFS 12 is a better run, although not as good as this evenings GEM.
I think this is a very good point with anything progged from the East, how many times have seen stella charts downgraded as we approach +0. On the bright side at least we've got cracking output to discuss rather than where's the next storm going to hit.
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...AND Atlantic ridge linking with Scandi high, what I was talking about a few minutes ago!
Interestingly the Korean long range model is going for such a set up but from mid February. Interesting developments but I feel it's a little too progressive, I feel we'll end up in no mans land until the latter part of this month before we start seeing much stronger heights to NE pushing westwards.
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Anyone care to comment?These are the latest. http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/sst/reynolds_antarctic.html
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It's nowhere near the mildest winter for some years around these parts, mostly frost free and only two light dustings of snow but temps have been around average to slightly above for most of the time.
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Lol! what chaos. I'm afraid the models are all over the place here and continuity has just gone up in smoke. I'd advise coldies of a nervous disposition to not read too much into tonights outputs until upstream issues are resolved.
As expected the ECM 192hrs has seen about 25 replies in about 30 seconds!
Indeed Nick, far too much variance at this moment in time so I'll keep my feet firmly planted on terra firma until the upstream pattern is resolved.
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
It's frustrating but to be honest I was expecting this go the way of the pear, yes we have a strong block to our NE and lowering heights over the Med but we still need heights to build towards Greenland for anything sustained and for that we have to rely on a SSW, which may or may not happen and even if it does we still need some luck for it to fall into a favourable position.