shuggee

Shame on me - well said windsock Yes - been reading about sting jets today. Certainly makes sense, but wonder why it wasn't spotted. Looking forward to Reporting Scotland at 6.30 and Newsnicht tonight, I'm sure there will be a forensic dissection.

So easily the strongest winds of the procession of storms this winter - and only an amber warning at bed time last night. Nobody prepared for this this morning - was just supposed to be 70-80mph gusts... Anyone know why? Did the low deepen suddenly, or its track differ? Going to do some online investigating.

Well it's currently raining in Aviemore.

Yep Phil I think all that is true - there's a long pile of dominoes that have to fall and it is encouraging that there are more fingers forecast to push the stubborn ones that break the chain. Just wanted to bring a hint of caution into the discussion

I think it's worth a cautionary post amongst the current 'pattern change' in mid January narrative. The charts at T+240 are 10 days into the future - and are a forecast. That means it will be 11 Jan 2012 if that chart verifies. We know from past experience that any warming of the stratosphere actually has to happen first - and then we have to wait 3 - 4 weeks to see any effect at surface here in the UK. That's the beginning of Feb, For perspective here's today's stratospheric temps: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

Good! Been missing your insightful updates George

Hi guys it's an ongoing problem which has been reported to IP Boards - hopefully when an update comes along it'll be resolved

I don't think I've ever seen such a period of inactivity - even during solar minimum: KP Index 0 for over 48 hours.

It's a bug that's been reported James - the same as the problem with the photos. Pain in the bum

:lol:

Hi iceaxe - if you would like to drop me or any other team member a PM, I am sure we can work out what has been going on.

Welcome to posting Ian! Not only is it interesting that the 18z GFS has followed the 12z GFS in progging this southeastern England storm, but the 12z ECM model has it too - both in the region of T+192, so quite unusual agreement so far out: 18z GFS 12z ECM A weather warning coming to a place near you?

Here's a couple of 850hpa temp and precipitation charts from Extra: Blizzards north of the Great Glen/Moray Coast on Friday: The only precipitation for south of the Great Glen slides southwards overnight Fri/Sat:

Was just wondering how spotting the dwarf planet Nibiru is coming along? Where are all the conspiracy people when it comes to crunch time?

BBC Weather on tv appears to be lessening the intensity of the forecast with talk now of 70mph+ gusts in the Central Belt tomorrow afternoon, whereas earlier it was 80mph+ in both the narrative and graphics. Good news.

Wonderful time-lapse aurora recording from Sweden: http://t.co/yatM83Re

Where are you JF? Could you pop your location in your profile so we can all be jealous properly ;-)

Aye CMD - the positioning of that low is significant. Lows centred east of Wick and north east of Aberdeen last year gave heavy snow over much of Scotland as fronts march south. One to watch.

Here's the T850 and precipitation chart for 3am Monday morning from the 06z GFS. Snow in the west still on - city centre Glasgow? And for the guys in Cumbria

GFS suggesting the temp at Aviemore will be 0ºC or below from tomorrow at 18h00 until Wednesday at 12h00 - cold zonality for early December, good to see.

Charts suggesting that Monday may be the first Ice Day of the season in many rural parts. Seems a bit extreme - and we always debate GFS's record on predicting temperatures, but good to see

Will have a look at this Tellow

Nice one LS. A well reasoned and professional forecast

Interesting chart for Thursday evening... Was staying not a million miles from you in Strathglass last week HC - I am currently sipping some Singleton from the Muir of Ord distillery