Kirkcaldy Weather

^ yeah latest wrf 2km slightly lessened my supercell perspective but still has some intense storms with the biggest cell across wales also some cells breaking out across east anglia, latest euro 4 still showing those individual cells with hail cores a possibility later in the evening it could all develop into a line but it is the individual cells that hold the most interest IMO

Topped out at 18.3C here Personal Weather Station Dashboard | Weather Underground WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM Weather Underground provides local & long-range weather forecasts, weather reports, maps & tropical weather conditions for locations worldwide. Also spotted this cloud and thought it looked a bit like a feather

Up to 17.9C here now, just noticed it got up to 19.5 C here on Wednesday.

Nice day here with a bit of a breeze and temp currently 16.4C

A chance of one or two rogue cells developing today but I want to focus on tomorrow. Now we are very early in the storm season but from looking at the charts I am seeing the possibility for supercell potential. as some of you know the main model I use is the wrf nmm the majority of the time it performs really well of course no model is ever 100% perfect but it has better detail than some of the other short range models especially the 2km so now some details for tomorrow which I will monitor over the rest of today’s runs for any changes. It is the arc of cells that I am interested in, the way there are separate cells also with intense cores peaks my interest this ties in with the euro 4 too which shows possibility of hail cores There will be more than enough CAPE the winds higher up in the atmosphere and potential vorticity associated with those cells is also evident all this ties in with the front covering the same area So certainly looks like a very interesting day and I wouldn’t be surprised to see hail and possible funnel / tornadic reports along that line of cells.

Hopefully the memories of 27th April 2011 make people extra aware of the situation just praying Tuscaloosa doesn’t get hit again (obviously don’t want anywhere to get hit but sadly that isn’t likely) have seen some saying about morning convection possibly being a spoiler but think the SPC saying that will likely turn into supercells as it moves east.

Wrf nmm done a good job too

Good to see the reports of thunder, the wrf handled it pretty well I was going to comment earlier and say don’t be surprised if it is a total bust as the runs from last night and through today showed less interest and also convective inhibition which is probably why those cells have weakened as they head this way colder air moving into the East and north east by Monday also just have Dixie Alley (Alabama, Mississippi etc) in your thoughts on Sunday as a potentially historic tornado outbreak will be taking place with a high risk likely.

***PLEASE SHARE**, An extremely dangerous, life and property threatening outbreak of severe thunderstorms with long-tracked, strong, destructive tornadoes is likely across Dixie on Easter Sunday into early Monday. It's not a matter now of if this will happen, but just how bad it will ultimately be. All of the parameters we look at to forecast major, historic outbreaks are there. The posted map from RadarOmega shows the day 3 convrctive outlook overlaid with the significant tornado parameter for late Sunday afternoon. As you can see, the STP is extremely high within the moderate risk area and that is the most likely area for long-tracked, strong, destructive tornadoes. Please take this threat serious and prepare. Start planning NOW. Make sure you have a reliable means of tracking and forecasting the storms, such as with an app like RadarOmega. Make sure you have a working weather radio and a phone app like WeatherCall to receive warnings the instant they are issued. DO NOT rely on outside sirens to warn you. Make sure to not be in a mobile home or car during a tornado warning. Make sure you have a good way of protecting your head during a tornado, such as wearing a helmet. If you live in a mobile home within the threat zone make plans to be in a more substantial structure on Sunday and Monday. Keep in mind that many community shelters have closed due to the COVID-19 virus. Now is the time to find out if yours has closed and make other sheltering plans if it has. The RadarOmega team will be constantly monitoring this dangerous weather situation and updating you throughout. M.FACEBOOK.COM ***PLEASE SHARE**, An extremely dangerous, life and property threatening outbreak of severe thunderstorms with long-tracked...

Storm Prediction Center Apr 27, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook... That was 27th April 2011 might need a comparison by the time we get to Sunday

Well it’s not looking good you would put your money on it being high risk as Paul S mentioned. Serious flashbacks now seeing Tuscaloosa in the MDT zone

I have seen a few on twitter suggesting something similar to 27th April 2011 I really hope not.

Well it’s an interesting one for tomorrow, will there ever be a straight forward thundery forecast I doubt it fax charts still not bringing fronts in so I wonder if it could be a rare day of home grown cells, basically the way the charts are looking suggest to me that lifting from southern uplands will help cells develop also wrf 2km shows little surface based CAPE but enough MUCAPE which means elevated cells which especially in the summer are the more lightning producers, still don’t think there will be any big storms but probably edging more into the thunderstorm category rather than thundery shower. Looks like I could be well placed here with most runs showing a cell over Fife and a few other cells scattered across the country. Also temperatures showing a 20 C eastern borders, 19 C through central belt and up near Inverness.