Kirkcaldy Weather

Wouldn't be surprised seeing a bit of flooding and potential rainfall warnings particularly for parts of Wales most likely Northwest and into Northwest England into Tuesday with increasingly heavy precip running along the boundary of colder and milder temperatures.

Events Across China January 2024 cold and snow Heat / warm temperatures BOTH

China Events January 2024

As mentioned in my post here "With the above we can see some of the important 500hpa setups developing into our current timeframe and into week 4 of January (and beyond) Low pressures from Greenland and into the Arctic High pressure forming across the Maritimes. A secondary high toward the Northwest of the US and Canada which links with PNA behaviour more on that shortly. Formation of cut off low(s) in that southwestern America > Mexico regions which also will lead into PNA behaviour.' 'Following on from this as the preceeding MJO phases input begins to feed into the setups from week 4 of Jan onward the above remains true with further developments. Looks like this initial cut off low will develop into a +PNA during the very end of Jan" As the positive PNA feedback progresses eastward pairing with the MJO patterns I've covered in depth, a +PNA does have a tendency of being supportive for Atlantic ridging / blocking which moves in the direction of Greenland and in connection to a trough further east ie Scandinavia, Baltic regions which gives a doorway for something cooler > colder from the north. Though I'm not putting a massive amount of emphasis into exact timeframes from my POV ATM it's looking favoured for this by approx February 4th / 5th and starting to see a possible redux around 1 week later ie 11th / 12th February. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5024752

As mentioned in my post here "With the above we can see some of the important 500hpa setups developing into our current timeframe and into week 4 of January (and beyond) Low pressures from Greenland and into the Arctic High pressure forming across the Maritimes. A secondary high toward the Northwest of the US and Canada which links with PNA behaviour more on that shortly. Formation of cut off low(s) in that southwestern America > Mexico regions which also will lead into PNA behaviour.' 'Following on from this as the preceeding MJO phases input begins to feed into the setups from week 4 of Jan onward the above remains true with further developments. Looks like this initial cut off low will develop into a +PNA during the very end of Jan" As the positive PNA feedback progresses eastward pairing with the MJO patterns I've covered in depth, a +PNA does have a tendency of being supportive for Atlantic ridging / blocking which moves in the direction of Greenland and in connection to a trough further east ie Scandinavia, Baltic regions which gives a doorway for something cooler > colder from the north. Though I'm not putting a massive amount of emphasis into exact timeframes from my POV ATM it's looking favoured for this by approx February 4th / 5th and starting to see a possible redux around 1 week later ie 11th / 12th February.

No need for me to spend too much time adressing those who still like to bash and dismiss the teleconnective aspects and in turn us that base our work / posting on them, I'll refer to my post from 7 months ago I can assure everyone that the 500hpa setups which are developing are very much in line with said teleconnective feedback. So building on from my previous post I've not done a single post over in the stratosphere thread since October 12th however 104 days on I feel its time to add my input Everything is coming together nicely through the rest of Jan and into February Starting with how the Stratospheric Vortex has behaved of late, using the zonal wind data off stratobserve we note there was a reversal in zonal winds albeit relatively brief in nature Classification on stratospheric warmings are a bit of a point though I'd hazard a guess we can technically class that as a major SSW but I'll leave that aspect to those who specialise in the stratospheric element. Credit Butler et al 2015 to explain my above statement You can also see from the zonal winds we've seen a quite rapid increase to a point which is hovering roughly slightly above - on average for zonal winds at this timeframe however we are seeing an excellent showcase of the 500hpa and surface temperatures as a result of a stronger vortex. Bear in mind this includes La Ninà responses however it's effectively the same. As discussed in my previous post and in line to MJO feedback these are paired to bring above average temperatures across wider swathes but there are still colder temperature anomalies which become focused over the southern regions in the Northern Hemisphere again a good amount moving into Asia, also Greenland, Alaska and the West Coast of America go below avg. Patterns we are witnessing into February are exactly what to expect b and d e and h ignore the ticks that is from a post I done last year, however those are pretty close to the patterns we've had during our recent cold setup Heading through the 1st week of February we are seeing precursor 500hpa pattens which are conducive for stratospheric warming(s) We'll also have feedback from the MJO entering the Pacific. As things stand we're looking at at least two weeks of the MJO being active in the Pacific roughly January 24/25 through January 7th but the extended data is supportive ATM of a 3rd week still prominent within the Pacific Taking the progress into / nearer Mid January This also plays into stratospheric warming with phases 6 and 7 having a stronger correlation with weakening the stratospheric vortex and a large portion of prior warmings having occured with the MJO within the Pacific All classic El Ninò characteristics into February week 1 (a) Thanks for reading. KW Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5024019

No need for me to spend too much time adressing those who still like to bash and dismiss the teleconnective aspects and in turn us that base our work / posting on them, I'll refer to my post from 7 months ago I can assure everyone that the 500hpa setups which are developing are very much in line with said teleconnective feedback. So building on from my previous post I've not done a single post over in the stratosphere thread since October 12th however 104 days on I feel its time to add my input Everything is coming together nicely through the rest of Jan and into February Starting with how the Stratospheric Vortex has behaved of late, using the zonal wind data off stratobserve we note there was a reversal in zonal winds albeit relatively brief in nature Classification on stratospheric warmings are a bit of a point though I'd hazard a guess we can technically class that as a major SSW but I'll leave that aspect to those who specialise in the stratospheric element. Credit Butler et al 2015 to explain my above statement You can also see from the zonal winds we've seen a quite rapid increase to a point which is hovering roughly slightly above - on average for zonal winds at this timeframe however we are seeing an excellent showcase of the 500hpa and surface temperatures as a result of a stronger vortex. Bear in mind this includes La Ninà responses however it's effectively the same. As discussed in my previous post and in line to MJO feedback these are paired to bring above average temperatures across wider swathes but there are still colder temperature anomalies which become focused over the southern regions in the Northern Hemisphere again a good amount moving into Asia, also Greenland, Alaska and the West Coast of America go below avg. Patterns we are witnessing into February are exactly what to expect b and d e and h ignore the ticks that is from a post I done last year, however those are pretty close to the patterns we've had during our recent cold setup Heading through the 1st week of February we are seeing precursor 500hpa pattens which are conducive for stratospheric warming(s) We'll also have feedback from the MJO entering the Pacific. As things stand we're looking at at least two weeks of the MJO being active in the Pacific roughly January 24/25 through January 7th but the extended data is supportive ATM of a 3rd week still prominent within the Pacific Taking the progress into / nearer Mid January This also plays into stratospheric warming with phases 6 and 7 having a stronger correlation with weakening the stratospheric vortex and a large portion of prior warmings having occured with the MJO within the Pacific All classic El Ninò characteristics into February week 1 (a) Thanks for reading. KW

The initial process of cut off low development has delivered impressive rainfall records in California and Arizona And significant snow in higher terrain / Sierras As this initial cut off low gradually moves further east there's a number of impactful conditions on the way over the next week and heading into the start of February. Over the next couple of days we'll have a significant flash flood threat focusing in across the Gulf and more southern States. As the cut off low(s) [troughing] gradually progresses east and in connection with more of a classical +PNA setup we'll have a system which has potential of becoming a potentially disruptive snowstorm into Northeast America, I'm expectant of this during the 28th - 30th of January During the last days of January I'm watching another cut off low development across the East Pacific which heads into Mexico, whether it takes on any tropical characteristics we'll see. The energy of that cut off low development will link to further Pacific trough developments in connection with recent MJO phase influences and the MJO being active within the Pacific during this timeframe. From the last days of Jan through week 1 of Feb this will have a significantly wet anomaly for California up the US west coast into the Pacific Northwest and moving into the Southwest States and Mexico. Some of the precip will fall as snow in higher terrains such as the Sierras.

Cheers for those nice words @thebigyin much appreciated Big Congrats to @Northern Strath will the baby have middle names including Isha / Jacelyn Not much to add onto my post in the mod thread really. My stats from Jan 6th January 6th Max Temperature 7.6C Max Dewpoint 6.9C Min Temperature 0.1C Min Dewpoint 0.0C January 7th Max Temperature 5.7C Max Dewpoint 5.6C Min Temperature -0.7C Min Dewpoint -1.1C January 8th Max Temperature 4.9C Max Dewpoint 4.6C Min Temperature -0.9C Min Dewpoint -1.3C January 9th Max Temperature 4.7C Max Dewpoint 2.2C Min Temperature 2.4C Min Dewpoint -0.8C January 10th Max Temperature 5.4C Max Dewpoint 4.6C Min Temperature 2.5C Min Dewpoint 1.0C January 11th Max Temperature 6.3C Max Dewpoint 4.5C Min Temperature 2.9C Min Dewpoint 1.5C January 12th Max Temperature 4.1C Max Dewpoint 3.7C Min Temperature 0.2C Min Dewpoint -0.5C January 13th Max Temperature 10.1C Max Dewpoint 6.7C Min Temperature 3.1C Min Dewpoint 1.3C January 14th Max Temperature 5.6C Max Dewpoint 1.8C Min Temperature -0.7C Min Dewpoint -3.9C January 15th Start Of Significant Cold Anomalies Max Temperature 3.4C Max Dewpoint -2.2C Min Temperature -2.6C Min Dewpoint -5.5C Averages Temperature -0.1C Dewpoint -4.6C January 16th Max Temperature 3.3C Max Dewpoint 1.7C Min Temperature -2.9C Min Dewpoint -4.2C Averages Temperature 0.0C Dewpoint -1.7C January 17th Max Temperature 3.1C Max Dewpoint -1.9C Min Temperature -4.1C Min Dewpoint -6.1C Averages Temperature -1.7C Dewpoint -4.4C January 18th Max Temperature 4.4C Max Dewpoint -2.1C Min Temperature -4.1C Min Dewpoint -6.4C Averages Temperature -0.6C Dewpoint -3.7C January 19th Max Temperature 5.7C Max Dewpoint 2.9C Min Temperature -1.2C Min Dewpoint -2.9C Noteworthy Pressure readings January 9th Max 1040.20hpa Min 1038.30hpa January 11th Max 1042.91hpa wow Min 1038.81hpa January 12th Max 1041.59hpa Min 1025.60hpa Pressure fall of 15.99hpa in 24hours I've put together an in depth look at how severe and extreme the past few weeks have been in Canada, America and Europe

Wanted to do a longer post and look into just how severe and extreme the past few weeks have been. A lot of the years that the past few weeks of cold anomalies are comparable with are among the top analogues from my winter outlook Starting with the UK and European countries such as France. The peak of cold conditions appear to have been during January 18th > 19th, I took the following screenshot during early hours of the 19th as a bit of a reference, credit coolwx How coolwx works is by displaying the following values Many of the values were around 50 or so years in Magnitude though there could very well have been some which surpassed this. Screen_Recording_20240121_183427_Chrome.mp4 CANADA AND USA There are numerous states in which the January 2024 records are comparable with some of the coldest winter weather events in recorded history like 1947 and 1962/1963 and other extreme events such as February 2021 and February/ March 2018 and December 2022. Screen_Recording_20240121_191439_Chrome.mp4 Screen_Recording_20240121_191603_Chrome.mp4 One of the most noteable records here as it breaks the prior record by quite a large amount 2.9C and thats a weekly period too These too

A major issue I foresee is the amount of time we're going to have at least 50mph gusts across most of Scotland there wont be much if any break ahead of our next storm during the 23rd and 24th add in the fact we'll also see multiple spells of these gusts being funnelled directly west > east usually a more impactful direction.

Lots to cover. "Now lets dive into the MJO because it carries importance at various levels. This could have some impact with regard to an important evolution of the cyclonic developments across Canada into the Maritimes I'd still favour mid Jan but might be slightly later should we get the interference a la the CFS." Hats off to the CFS yet again as it was pretty much the only model keen and picking up on the Indian Ocean Dipole causing some interference which I discussed in my post from Jan 2nd As the MJO begins crossing through the Maritimes generally from Mid Jan as discussed this works to aid cyclogenisis with 2 main times of interest. Storm Isha Come Sunday evening [January 21st] we'll have damaging gusts particularly through the Irish Sea with effects being most impactful toward Wales up across Southwest Scotland and moving Northeastwards Heading toward Monday these highest gust speeds look to shift focus further southeast Further potential damaging gusts cannot be ignored as a possibility across Scotland on the back of Isha Using the 200mb Velocity data we can watch these focal points as the MJO influence works in tandem to aid this initial cyclonic development with Isha To understand the next focal point lets go back to my comments from January 7th "Again links with recent MJO phases this links with the PNA heading more into positive territory, door opens for a snowy system into Northeast America from roughly Jan 18th - 21st IMO ' This same system becomes our next area of potential disruption by January 23rd You can also watch some of the next patterns setting up on the gif above linking to my comments from my post on January 11th 'Following the MJO passing across the Maritimes we begin seeing feedback of phases 1 and into 2 as January week 4 gets started a high forms toward the Maritimes which might extend through Canada, also I'm starting to notice the trend toward cut off low development toward Mexico, far Southwest US ' With the above we can see some of the important 500hpa setups developing into our current timeframe and into week 4 of January (and beyond) Low pressures from Greenland and into the Arctic High pressure forming across the Maritimes. A secondary high toward the Northwest of the US and Canada which links with PNA behaviour more on that shortly. Formation of cut off low(s) in that southwestern America > Mexico regions which also will lead into PNA behaviour. High pressures East of the UK. 'This will have a setup which favours a + North Atlantic Oscillation especially during January week 4, this favours above average temperatures. Initially there is also more of a -PNA which also connects with the above average temperatures across the eastern portion of America / Canada and Maritimes with below average further west.' Following on from this as the preceeding MJO phases input begins to feed into the setups from week 4 of Jan onward the above remains true with further developments. Looks like this initial cut off low will develop into a +PNA during the very end of Jan As discussed above there continues to be the trend of the high extending across Canada As we head into February and again as the preceeding MJO input begins to materialise this will see the high extension into the Atlantic with further developments of high pressure again toward the Maritimes. This sees low pressure[s] becoming centred toward the north of the UK As discussed in my post from Tuesday we're seeing patterns favouring above average temperature scenarios across large swathes ie Europe and America particularly Northeast US and Maritimes > Eastern Canada. Colder temperatures become focused into Asia in association with these patterns. I'm also looking toward the very last days of Jan and into February for stratospheric warming(s) as this is supported again with MJO feedback. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99793-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-ending-what-next/?do=findComment&comment=5019918

Lots to cover. "Now lets dive into the MJO because it carries importance at various levels. This could have some impact with regard to an important evolution of the cyclonic developments across Canada into the Maritimes I'd still favour mid Jan but might be slightly later should we get the interference a la the CFS." Hats off to the CFS yet again as it was pretty much the only model keen and picking up on the Indian Ocean Dipole causing some interference which I discussed in my post from Jan 2nd As the MJO begins crossing through the Maritimes generally from Mid Jan as discussed this works to aid cyclogenisis with 2 main times of interest. Storm Isha Come Sunday evening [January 21st] we'll have damaging gusts particularly through the Irish Sea with effects being most impactful toward Wales up across Southwest Scotland and moving Northeastwards Heading toward Monday these highest gust speeds look to shift focus further southeast Further potential damaging gusts cannot be ignored as a possibility across Scotland on the back of Isha Using the 200mb Velocity data we can watch these focal points as the MJO influence works in tandem to aid this initial cyclonic development with Isha To understand the next focal point lets go back to my comments from January 7th "Again links with recent MJO phases this links with the PNA heading more into positive territory, door opens for a snowy system into Northeast America from roughly Jan 18th - 21st IMO ' This same system becomes our next area of potential disruption by January 23rd You can also watch some of the next patterns setting up on the gif above linking to my comments from my post on January 11th 'Following the MJO passing across the Maritimes we begin seeing feedback of phases 1 and into 2 as January week 4 gets started a high forms toward the Maritimes which might extend through Canada, also I'm starting to notice the trend toward cut off low development toward Mexico, far Southwest US ' With the above we can see some of the important 500hpa setups developing into our current timeframe and into week 4 of January (and beyond) Low pressures from Greenland and into the Arctic High pressure forming across the Maritimes. A secondary high toward the Northwest of the US and Canada which links with PNA behaviour more on that shortly. Formation of cut off low(s) in that southwestern America > Mexico regions which also will lead into PNA behaviour. High pressures East of the UK. 'This will have a setup which favours a + North Atlantic Oscillation especially during January week 4, this favours above average temperatures. Initially there is also more of a -PNA which also connects with the above average temperatures across the eastern portion of America / Canada and Maritimes with below average further west.' Following on from this as the preceeding MJO phases input begins to feed into the setups from week 4 of Jan onward the above remains true with further developments. Looks like this initial cut off low will develop into a +PNA during the very end of Jan As discussed above there continues to be the trend of the high extending across Canada As we head into February and again as the preceeding MJO input begins to materialise this will see the high extension into the Atlantic with further developments of high pressure again toward the Maritimes. This sees low pressure[s] becoming centred toward the north of the UK As discussed in my post from Tuesday we're seeing patterns favouring above average temperature scenarios across large swathes ie Europe and America particularly Northeast US and Maritimes > Eastern Canada. Colder temperatures become focused into Asia in association with these patterns. I'm also looking toward the very last days of Jan and into February for stratospheric warming(s) as this is supported again with MJO feedback.