Ladyofthestorm

:aggressive:We were really conned last year, -10C and it had the cheek to hail! grrrrr need a good northerly, easterlies are rubbish for us.

I hope so I never saw very much last year at all!

There is bound to be a lag time of the effect of La Nina on atmospheric cooling. However it is the feedback mechanism of fresh water melt from the ice shelves of the polar ice caps that may throw a spanner in the works for the GW protaganists. 1. Cool water increases photoplankton and photosynethising bacteria, and it is this CO2 sink that interests me greatly. 2. Flooding of cold fresh water in relatively warm oceans decreases salinity and can possibly cause quite large scale oceanic circulatory change.... we dont know extactly what yet. 3.Increase in cloud cover, caused by an increase in evaporation, due to higher glbal temps may actually decrease the amount of solar radiation reaching the earths surface as it is refleced back into space. There is of course the insulating blanket theory which would work for a few years before eventually heat loss would be greater than heat gain.

Spot on Weather Eater, I did mine at the University of Stirling, It was a really brilliant course, practical hands on (getting very dirty, didnt realise taking sample of peat core could get you so messy! I loved every lecture, I even loved doing my assignments, which I got a 1st class honours in.... Im proud of that I worked very hard. You are quite right it is a very healthy banter in here.... Even if Essan has drank too much Talisker.

Can I suggest the storms of January 12th and 13th 2005 over NW scotland as being close to those records. Im sure it was. Cookie you must have been terrified!

he is on the talisker:drinks:Maybe its a bitty strong........... Do you not know what a scientot is Blitzen? scientots are baby scientists! We grow them in specially prepared cells called the science classroom.

good job we arent electronic engineers then? So what kind of scientist am I then if I studied all of the disciplines in environmental science specialising in quaternary environmental change.

Looking forward to being part of net weather this winter and to posting my winter reports of the North of Scotland. I suspect this site will be even busier than normal as people gear up and login as the big freeze deepens. Stewart Rampling was spot on the money last year with his forecast and I expect a similar winter forecast, but it to start much earlier. Lets hope Im right!

I do hope you are right there or else my hubbys wind turbine will never move again and my vegetables and fruit will never grow! Lol Im not too rosey cheeked unless Im out battling to get the hens in or the washing out! Yers feeding children is my main occupation. I have two 8 month old twins and 2 older girls, oh and half the neighbourhoods kids around for tea every night! Im afraid thats where the Highland lass image disappears. lol. Ive mixed concrete, landscapes the garden, plastered the walls and chop wood with a very large axe as my favourite man hobbies. Hubby isnt a fishing shooting type. Though we like our walking together, as well as star gazing and aurora watching from our bedroom window! Oh and Im jolly until I get PMT then its grrrrrrr:good: I do like this thread..it has been an excellent debate with cyber friends Eyeofthestorm... fanastic image there. Look at the area of cooling just where the NAD should be. And look at that massive la nina in the pacific... Maybe a teeny weeny wee bit to much of the olde talkisker in there? My favourite drink is actually Drambuie

SST in this part of the world are down from last yer, suggesting that the NAD has failed to warm our waters. However the opposite has happened in Southern England which are up... again because there has been little mixing of the cooler water with warmer water, allowing less dence warm water to ride on the surface. Weather Eater Richard and Blitzen its great chatting to you all too! Keeps my mummy brain ticking over nicely!

We saw fanastic aurora on Monday night, got great pictures.... remember where we live, there is no other human light all the way to the north pole.. Just darkness.

Thank you weather eater for the compliment. I am very very lucky and privaledged to live in such a wonderful place. It is like a romantic movie my life! lol Pete I hope not either, I want a nice garden once the new house is finished! Short term variablity can have massive repurcussions on our weather, that is my concern, not the next ice age, more this winter. They used the term not significant in there report which makes me think the data was basically incomplete which reduces reliabilty (not enough of it) or is subject to errors which dcreases accuracy. I dont think for one moment it has shut down, not even during the last ice age did it do so. A migration to sunny climates was a possibilty then.However, I do think that oceanic current is slowing down, you have to agree our weather is in the least more continental and less atlantic dominated and all Im waiting on is the data to filter back and mark my words it will do.

Appears to be cooling, after this la nina event, it will show a global cooling... however I would like to have seen a choice in the voting box of regional variation...

<br /><br /><br />Hi Essan, Im not sure how this topic has managed to wonder into the realms of ice ages, long term climate change etc, having had a look through it has gotten a bit lost. It is the short term variablity that could give us a cold winter. See my post above on statistical manipulation/ handling of data. I am a graduate scientist in environmental science, I know a little in how science and the scientific experimental process works. The problem they have right now is with having a set of results that is significant either way, until then there hands are tied thats why they are claiming short term variablity because that is all they can measure. All the study highlights is the limitations of our knowledge and understanding of a system that is full of negative feedback mechanisms from the lithosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere. A slowing down of the gulfstream is like everything else just because you cant see it happening doesnt mean to say that it isnt happening.

and the same can be said for the mild rampers in dismissing it, everyone to there own. Only time will tell. A cold winter for me is a very very cold long winter for everyone else not living in the north and my winter is quite long enough thank you. Ask anyone living in the Highlands. I dont need to snow ramp.However I do see the effects of the north atlantic activity.. or lack of it in this case. Something is "up" with the weather and its affecting our climate. Fact... we had 100mm of precipitation (Skye Lusa site, Im just a mile away from it), in 6 months.Fact ... the average maximum gust sustained last autumn was just 33 knots ( we have a very good weather station here).Fact .. SST around the area are down... by 2C, which is alot. I know this because of the salmon fisheries take regular temps checksFact.. Prevailing wind direction is NWly to NEly... This is the case for 78% of the time. kiss goodbye to the prevailing SWlyFact.. last time we had a windstorm... er um... a Nly in Feb 2009.. 80 knot gustsNow take a good look at that chart and tell me if you think it gulf stream is active or inactive over in this area? Over the next few months keep watching that chart. We are supposed to have had a very active hurricane season. The wind we have had here hasnt been enough to blow out a candle!

<br /><br /><br />lets hope those pepperoni people with the cameras get the headline pphoto of the chief editor landing on his backside in the snow! Oh the justice!

Thanks Blitzen!I note the difference in the scale of image...I wonder what number crunching the scientists have done with the flow figures?The problem is I dont think the gulfstream has lsowed down the USA side of the atlantic, you can see that from the ex hurricane tracks this year. However I think the impact is much more mid to this side of the atlantic. The atlantic is losing its energy, hence the relatively quiet spell of weather here since october last year.We live on Skye and the wind turbine has barely moved for a year! Does that not tell you something? Look at the number of huge hurricanes that should have gone extra tropical on us, and we should have been in the firing line and instead they have swung off to sunny Greenland. I can count a dozen times this summer the fronts that have stalled over us for days, no wind just rain. Maybe it shouldnt be science telling us that summat is up with the gulfstream, maybe its just plain common sense.

Blitsen I didnt mention BP in my previous post..lol You have a very valid point weather eater, why hasnt this been investigated further? Why the wall of silence? It is very healthy for us ALL to question the methodology and integrity of those studying climate change, cause and effect. The scandel surrounding the IPCC should give us a very clear warning message. Just because we, as yet dont fully understand something as complex as oceanic currents, does not mean to say that an event will not or is not already beginning to happen. I think the word small differences is the key here... small means not significant and significance is an extremely important term in research, when doing the statistical analysis to test the null hypothesis. Without a valid significance test result, research cannot be published in a scientific journal. My thought is what if the differences in oceanic currents is alot smaller than the requirements of the significance test? What if these apparent tiny changes have a huge ampliflied effect on global oceanic and atmospheric circulation? Quoted from the beeb article "The satellite record going back to 1993 did suggest a small increase in flow, although the researchers cannot be sure it is significant" This is what we have to watch for in studying climae change, these apparent very small differences that science HAS to dismiss because of that magical significance test.

Blitzen, fantastic chart of atlantic flow rates.... or lack of BTW We could have a game of spot the gulfstream and none of us would win! Rapid onset of significant cooler periods is possible given the evidence that exsists if you are able to trawl through it. If you take a look at pollen and sediment anaylsis it can point to quite significant rates of cooling.... and at the end warming again. However we have a whole forum to discuss stuff to do with the past ice ages. Think of ot this wat if ENSO events can have a massive impact on the planets climate, why cant a breakdown of the gulfstream cause a cooling? If it isnt there, it cant keep us warm... SST around the north west coast of Scotland are down on what happened last summer. What is pending is a definite slow down of the gulfstream, you cannot deny it, as it is plain to see from Blitzens post. The question that we should all be discussing is why the slowdown?

Winter of 81, 83 and 84 were whilly ones for the North as well,.

<br /><br /><br />or more sensibly used tree ring, and glacial analysis?

Id say it is improving all the time, gien that it has to contend with quite complex (ok understatement) very complex feedback mechanisms, such as oceanic temperatures, albedo, salt water concentrations, cloud cover and so forth. I feel it does better when Europe is under the influce of igh Pressure and the NAO /AO is negative. Maybe higher pressure is easier to predict? I also think the problem isnt with the models but with the jo public who either ridicule them for being out because they will only remember what they want to remember! Or they interpret what they want to see. Or how one big event, though not significant in terms of the overall long range forecast figures can raise heighten peoples perception that this scenario was the norm the whole winter. Or for not understanding the purpose of such models and what they actually show. Net weather predicted a colder than average winter last year, I think also drier as well.... it was spot on. The model predicted a cold end to winter the year before.. it was spot on there too. This winter the CFS, so far, has gone for a cooler than average winter over the UK, and to be frank, given the atlantic has failer to deliver the killer punch I thought that it might and with the scandi high being quite a significant area of high pressure... I think it has it right again.

what a brill idea

In stark contrast to October 3rd 2008.. it snowed!.. maybe Mr Data could kindly bring the synopitic charts up for that.

slightly cooler than normal for me please, I dont think the atlantic is going to break through as much as is believed. It would be nice if it did! lol10.6C for me.