Ladyofthestorm

I'm finding this incredibly intriguing this year. We haven't had many triple dip la Nina years on the decades gone by, but it looks like using analogue years maybe fruitless. An increase in hurricane activity in North Atlantic is characteristic.... Yet here we are in an unprecedented lull. Obviously other factors driving this.. maybe oceanic rather than atmospheric. Maybe cooler denser fresh water from melting ice caps softening the waters as to speak.

Metositying on the fence just a tad. The longer range models I've seen are going for progressive cold

I think when you have the ECM and GFS trending as similar patterns ... One of really needs to take heed.

GFS going for another warming over Siberia. 7 days later the vortex splits with causing cold air to spill on from the North. Away out in lala land, however the caveat this winter is that it appears to Tue in with the tekeconnections .

Surely the gFS and s overcooking that low next week given the NAO forecast doesn't support it.

I don't often post on the forum,I just lurk and nod in agreement or mumble maybe not. I just carefully watch the models unravel the secrets. Looking at the ensembles we can clearly see the downward trend of the 850 hpa temps. Tick box. It looks s only at the end of the runs that they wildly yo-yo up and down as they fail to grasp the effects of the SSW. I'm also noting the ridging (amplification of higher pressure) around the UK and Atlantic .Atlantic is stalling and any attempt by the Atlantic to rattle in deep areas low pressure should be taken with a pinch of salt. This opens the doors to Nly sourced winds. Another tick box. The ensemble forecast for the NAO is to stay negative. Reversal of winds still up in the air, but looks like our source of an Easterly air is now on the freezer. A huge tick box. Subsequent stratospheric warmings look inevitable, their effect yet to be seen. Overall looking good. Just be patient and I agree critical time frame 5 to 7 days.

At last been watching these charts for the past 5 days,awaiting for the Atlantic to finally give up and give us some peace. Ensembles paint a picture unfolding. The 850 hpa charts are impressive for us, but how we get there is a different story.. the pressure charts, still messy and lacking agreement. A note of caution, the air temp GFS mean is running on the cold sideof the charts. Winter isn't done yet... Another March 2006 me thinks

Good morning everyone. I've been in hibernation waiting in vain hope for some drier colder weather.. lol. I've been watching with interest the models picking up this as we head into January. The wobble from the Jetstream from the models. The wobble as I call it will have a knock on effect on the weather we receive in January. Yes a mild SSW may take place, but I don't expect to see a reversal of winds etc. Colder weather and snow is going to come from the North or North West. I think ridges of high pressure from mid Atlantic interdespersed with deep NWly flows toppling down. I'm noting the Polar Vortex over the UK during warming too. No classic beasterlies yet. But pretty exciting and fast moving weather to be had.

For goodness sake it's the CFS!!!

That basically covers everything....

So winter might be over if the charts are to be believed. I got the impression from the 18z GFS that it was low pressure followed by a ridge Sly winds toppler rinse and repeat. Not sure what to think other than the SSW got the wrong continent and it isn't happening for us this year.

I love your charts Knocker! It does indeed look like a similar setup to last winter (Nov, Dec, Jan). When the jet was having a Tango! It does look very wintry over the next few weeks at times. Every chart is pointing towards that trend.

Altnaharra I reckon .. -15C by the end of the night. Winds decreasing.

All roads lead to cold. . NW then NE. We should rename the thread . The hunt for mild .. it's gonna be a long time before we see double figures again.

Good effort! METO all the way. (PS I live on Lewis too)

What happened to the beast from the east????I've been away from the models 36hrs???

I thought it was all in fine balance anyway with some uncertainty caused by this US storm?

Not exactly a mild transition either with a run of cool NWlys

I think so too Blasty. And because of it It looks like it will be a polar maritime direction. Don't get me wrong western areas will get snow. But realistically the beast is unlikely.

Looks very interesting modelling that ties in with the SSW and the teleconnections forecasts. Has the GFS finally got a grip on the cold scenarios or is it leading us up the garden path (again)?

That 12z GFS is sniffing something wintry with Nly outbreaks in 10days time. I am sure of it. Will it vanish in the next few runs or will it stay?

Longer range modelling all pointing towards SSW influenced pattern. Blocking to our NW low pressure to our east and NE. Nly outbreaks in abundance. Ok, it's not the beast from the east, but it will certainly be very cold and snowy for coastal areas with some outbreaks of snow for more inland areas at times. The beast from the east last Feb brought us Zilch snow to Western Scotland. Dry and cold Easterly winds. So it's our turn!

Give it time. Patience is the key this winter.

We live on the Isle of Lewis. Thought I changed my profile???

NW flow is good for us in the NW though so not all bad news.