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Everything posted by Ladyofthestorm
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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It looks to me with every model run the jetstream looks vulnerable to buckling and the Polar vortex equally so. I'm pretty confident that a significant cold spell is not a case of if but more when... My bets right in the beginning of the new year. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Same thing happened during the ice age. Don't take it to heart . -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I completely agree with your sentiments. Things look like they sit on a knife edge synoptically. While most are looking to the East for a cold source of air, I am looking to the North. What was interesting was the ensembles for that time period. Naturally all over the place with a large spread, but the GFS operational 850pa temps are forecast actually warmer than the GEFS control mean and a significant number of seperate runs of the models. One to watch. Low pressure bringing in a Northern flow of air. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The GFS always has a default bias for being Atlantic driven. But mild Decembers are often associated with strong El Nino winter's influences 2014/15 being one of them off the top of my head. The Stratosphere in the high latitudes is volatile/the polar vortex vulnerable. The reason for all the rain in England is because is because the Jetstream has slipped south. I remember (I think it was Chino) suggesting that last winter snow was a precursor to what we could get this year. I think he is right. Something big is lurking around the corner it's just that the charts haven't picked it up yet. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looking the ensembles. I really don't think we can draw any conclusion from it. Anything beyond day 10 is really purely speculation. The models don't know where to place the highs either. Though I suspect the GFS is overplaying the role of the Atlantic. The GEM is going for higher pressure over the UK. I suppose we can use this point as a benchmark to see which model verifies if any!! -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Any chance that the GFS is overplaying that influence from the low. It seems to be thinking around for awfullong time. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
GFS overplaying the role of the Atlantic, with a deep area of low pressure eroding into the high pushing it further east and north. EC keeps feeding in the Easterly influence, Russia is being put into the deep freeze. The 850s on the 0z operational run way above the mean and individual run Some runs AO suggest a return to neutral. But some emsemble members are hitting rock bottom. The Arctic polar vortex still looks very preturbed, with any arm of the cold potentially extending southwards. It is different this year. No doubt. Be patient. Winters coming. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Charts all over the place, ensembles sitting on the fence. Polar vortex disturbed. No wonder they can't agree. Little wonder the METO says there is no clear signal from the medium to long range. It's a case of when not if and how much. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It seems to me that the GFS is doing its classic dropping a trend and firing out a deep Atlantic low in the longer range. What's the chances(again) of it modelling back to the NEly in a few days time. The Ensembles runs in the longer run are all over the place and the GFS longer-term looks like an outlier. Do best ignored. Blocking to the north everyone. Europe is suddenly going into the freezer. And the NAO and AO are very negative. No Atlantic weather anytime soon. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It seems to me that both the ECM and GFS are leading all roads to a colder path, the the GFS sending Polar air our way from the NE and the Nly. And the ECM preferring to bring Europe into the freezer first then us . That high pressure block to the North of us would be great news for cold winter loving peeps who are getting an early treat in mid November. Big changes are afoot as we say goodbye to this horrid wet yucky sunless autumn. The Atlantic has been effectively shut off. Blocking to our North present. Whether we get big dumpings of snow and is another question. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS 0z is beginning to sniff something very special towards the end of the runs. Interesting times ahead for December. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ensembles are all over the place. Barely get consensus at 5 days put. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree with you Blasty. And I think it will be like a switch too. The polar vortex looks weak. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What's the LIA footprint Blasty? -
Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
Ladyofthestorm replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Are you being sarcastic or is this good news for cold weather fans? -
Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.
Ladyofthestorm replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
4 days ago the GFS picked up this Nly pattern, and for the most part stuck to its guns, it isn't the first time its picked up a trend in the far reaches of the forecast, dropped the idea for 4-6 runs and then go it right. Ok Nly aint great for Southern snow lovers but if the 12Z is even within a sniff of what it has projected, the NE of Scotland, the Northern Isles and Highlands are stuffed with widespread blizzards even to lower levels. And right now there is nothing to doubt what it is telling me given the GEM, ECM and ensembles are heading exactly the same way too. The key is this low and when it begins too deepen, Its timing is crucial to a wintry outbreak. However there is no doubt in my mind that given the pressure over Greenland, eventually this set sup will cause an outbreak of significantly colder air from the north. How long it lasts for is another matter.. I suspect it will be a relatively short sharp blast of around 4 days. -
A massive congratulations GP and it is bittersweet that we will no longer have your guidance on the LRF. You have left huge shoes to fill, if they can be filled at all. All the very best for the future LOTS x
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scotland Scotland - Alba Regional Discussion 20/03/13 21z ------>
Ladyofthestorm replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Hi guys following on from the advice of Lorenzo Hi folks I have a little question and need a wee bit o help, we are talking agroup of gold DOE's out NE scotland week beginning 1st of april, the ECM seems to be pointing at a number of things. Do yoythink it will stay very cold or is it going to turn milder? I am feeling the hunch the later. Of course it is just your thoughts. Thanks Lotty xx -
Hi folks I have a little question and need a wee bit o help, we are talking agroup of gold DOE's out NE scotland week beginning 1st of april, the ECM seems to be pointing at a number of things. Do yoythink it will stay very cold or is it going to turn milder? I am feeling the hunch the later. Of course it is just your thoughts. Thanks Lotty xx
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Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards
Ladyofthestorm replied to Coast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I saw it and thankyou frosty...bug hugs, very similar to the baby approaching our shores, me just has that feeling something bigis on the way! -
Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards
Ladyofthestorm replied to Coast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Dig out Dec 30th 1983 to Jan 6th 1984 and you get exactly the same setup. Is it just me or is the GFS underplaying the amount of snow potential NE coast of scotland will get? -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013
Ladyofthestorm replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
thanks for your reply,maybe between my hunch and your science we might just see another cold blast!- 2,514 replies
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- qbo
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COMPETITION + PRIZE: How long will the snow pile last!
Ladyofthestorm replied to SMU's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Tuesday 29th Jan 4.10pm -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013
Ladyofthestorm replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hi Guys, I have been reading your posts intently for the past four weeks or so and it can make some really interesting reading. I have a hunch that after the mild spell lasting Approx 7-10 days thecold will come back.Is there anything in the SSW forecasts that could support my hunch? PS Chino your a weather god! lol- 2,514 replies
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- stratosphere
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