knocker

Nurse, nurse, they are out of bed again

satellite image from METOP-C overhead at 2021/12/21 10:51 UTC

Plenty of Stratus scooting across in the stiff south easterly wind, giusting 30mph. So feeling a tad chilly

Looking at the clusters 120-168. Perhaps the milder airmass shading it? But I'm glad most of this is above my pay grade

Stark differences between the gfs/ecm medium term anomalies this morning essentially involving the energy flows around the north of the Greenland block. As last night the ecm is still establishing a high cell over the eastern Arctic, the gfs not interested, which pretty much negates one of the energy flows and thus makes a big difference to the temps over western Europe

For some reason WB don't give them in Centigrade

Are you actually suggesting the ecm is a sentient being?

The ecm this morning is not a million miles away from last night's fax

Excuse my ignorance but what is model latency theory?

For a short while now the ext mean anomalies have been hinting at the retrogression and weakening of the Greenland block allied to a corresponding weakening of tpv lobe northern Russia. This facilitates amplification of the Azores ridge and a rise of temps to around average

Small differences of the energy distribution are still resulting in some uncertainty in the movement of Atlantic low, and associated fronts, and the possible phasing with the tpv lobe to the NE, at the end of the week and beginning of next, and thus the boundary of the cold/milder air

The ens goes out to144. Get in there Sidney

Layer of Sc and feeling a bit nippy in the keen easterly wind, albeit it has eased in the last couple of hours

Perhaps even https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/23729-will-it-snow/

The medium term mean anomalies this morning indicate little overall change regarding the NH pattern. The relevant area effecting the UK remains the Russian ridge connection to the Greenland block and the energy flows involving the tpv lobes in the NW Atlantic and northern Europe respectively. These control the influence, or not, of the contrasting airmasses. Given that the UK is tending to be in no mans land, the detail, at this range, remains elusive. A glance at the clusters over the beginning of this period illustrates the delicate balance involved here

No significant changes with the medium term anomalies this evening. The salient points remain; upstream amplification; Russian ridge linking to the Greenland block; And a westerly upper flow across the Atlantic linking the tpv lobe in the NW Atlantic to another isolated over northern Europe with the UK sitting in a sort of no mans land betwixt the two energy flows. Tricky detail at this range with temps below average but likely with a marked N/S bias

Both model threads appear to be limited to relatively short range, irrespective of content, which seems to exclude other posts. Unless I'm misreading this

That very often is not as easy to justifiable do as you seem to be suggesting

The 06 gfs continues to push the front NE on Thursday And then further fronts with some wave developments later Friday and through Saturday

The Penlee lifeboat disaster occurred forty years ago today. I remember that horrific day well https://rnli.org/about-us/our-history/timeline/1981-penlee-lifeboat-disaster

At the end of the day the clusters 120 > 168 are not going to help firm up the detail regarding the movement of the low and associated fronts and the movement south of the colder air from the north, but they give and idea of the options on the table

A light breeze, a fair amount of Stratus and quite mild

The Russian/Greenland connection still a feature of the medium term anomalies this morning but the ecm gives more traction to the tpv lobe northern Europe and thus tends to keep the UK temps a tad colder over the period, but generally temps below average, albeit with a N/S bias. The weather detail remains a bit tricky with the two energy flows. particularly the Atlantic jet, which is running a fair way south of the Greenland block

Not surprisingly still major differences between the gfs/ecm next weekend. Essentially involving the movement of the cold front associated with the vortex lobe to the N/NE. These differences get underway late Friday as the ecm tracks it all the way south, flooding the country with very cold air over the weekend. The gfs not so bold and restricts any colder air, not as cold as indicated by the ecm, to the north. Obviously still alot of uncertainty regarding the detail over the weekend The subtle differences are reflected in the medium term NH pattern. Still alot of uncertainty over the detail

Or better still wait for the reliable time frame. God strewth what on earth are you talking about knocker