knocker

clearance in these parts. Rain ceased, some straggly stratus and plentty of Ci Latest visible image (AVHRR channel 2, reflected sun light)

Cloudy, Sc/St and very slight rain

With all the weeping and wailing going on at the moment I am reminded once again of the dictum of my old friend Sammy Rachevsky. "When analysing the model outputs it is far more sensible to start at day zero and work out, than day ten and work back."

Although varying a great deal regarding the detail, both the gfs/ecm develop a complex area of low pressure in mid Atlantic through the first half of next week with frontal perturbations developing within the general circulation and tracking NE over the UK bringing rain and, in particular, some very mild Tm air

The medium term anomalies this evening indicating little change from previous comments. The salient points: The permanent nature of the north Pacific ridge resulting in Arctic air affecting NW/W North America resulting in a strong upper flow exiting the Atlantic seaboard south of the Greenland block that has shifted west; Some mid Atlantic wave breaking resulting in the upper flow backing and promotion of the Azores HP; Temps rising above average in western/central Europe

Whoops...........a touch of wave breaking.........Sidney!!!!!!!!

It's the way you tell 'em ba

Breaks in the cloud now, Ci and straggly St, and light rain ceased satellite image from NOAA-18 overhead at 2021/12/23 10:35 UTC

Stratus, slight rain and breezy

The ext mean anomalies this evening continue to indicate the Greenland block moving west and weakening, albeit still with a residual ridge, and a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of this across the Atlantic and around the Azores ridge which is amplifying a tad over the UK. Surface temps trending above average with a NW precipitation bias. Good to see the front loaded winter going out with a bang.

The ecm has a different take on the track of Monday's low and runs it into France

This evening's gfs has a wave developing on the front south west of Cornwall on Sunday which deepens as it tracks north east over southern Britain in the next 36 hours resulting in some wet and windy weather

It has been a dreary old day with a lowering cloud base and intermittent slight rain

Merely an observation upstream Doenstream

Double front? satellite image from NOAA-18 overhead at 2021/12/22 10:47 UTC

Some Ac/Ci this morning and a tad breezy

The consolidation of the ridge/high pressure in the eastern Arctic, along with a westward shift of the Greenland block, not only nergates the cold flow around the latter but also gives more traction to the westerly upper flow across the Atlantic and ultimately faciltates amplification of the Azores HP in the vicinity of the UK. This has been hinted at by the ext anomalies for two or three days. Thus temps rising above average

Now how will this develop?

Some wave breaking in the 5-10 period that promotes the Azores ridge. Interesting that this has been indicated by the ext. anomalies over the last couple of days. Temps below average for this period

You can see where the gfs idea of the developing wave on the front in the SE quadrant of the main low comes from, even if the ecm does not go along with it. It will be interesting to see how this pans out. Either way I can't see me going out for an Xmas stroll

Interesting that the gfs develops a wave near Coruna midnight Friday and rapidly develops it as it runs north to be 967mb at 2100 Saturday

St/Sc now gone but plenty of Ci and high Ac, But feeling decidedly chilly in the SE wind gusting 40mph

Yes I would imagine that would be the case. I'm not sure what the excitement is all about as at best it likely be a minor snow event in a limited area. In fact it could well be quite wet and windy in my neck of the woods.

Hold the front page. Mean ens surface temp forb the weekend from the 06 ecm