knocker

I remember this very well. I was on OWS Weather Adviser at the time and we were anchored at the Tail of the Bank, awaiting to dock at Greenock in the morning. During that horrific night the ship dragged it's anchor and we nearly ran aground at Gourock. But we were lucky, other ships in the Clyde sank and lives were lost.

The cold front should just about clear the SE by 1400 with blizzard conditions develping over northern Scotland in the frequent heavy snow showers in the very strong NE/N wind. Wintry showers also developing over Wales and SW of England with snow over the high ground But this cold snap is relatively short lived and one of the reasons for this is not without interest. Between 00 Weds and 00 Thursday a low in mid Atlantic undergoes rapid cyclogenesis near the left exit of the jet and deepens from 975mb to 929mb to be just east of the tip of Greenland. After a widspread early frost on Thursday fronts associated with this sweep east across the country accompanied by rain. hill snow, and strong winds

That is a good point imo. I get the distinct impression on accasion that some people confuse the anomalies as physical entities on a 500mb contour chart

Indications from the medium term anomalies. of a deep low tracking south of the Aleutians, promoting the ridge over western North America, which in turn shifts the tpv lobe/trough ext east. The downstream knock on effect of this is to promote the Atlantic jet and, to varying degrees, the Azores HP. Thus a trend to more settled conditions with temps a tad above average but perhaps a fair diurnal spread.

You are such a wag CM. The big difference is that they are trained meteorologists with years of experience and are privy to much more detailed charts. And of course the option of taking a wild punt, the raison d'etre of this thread, is not on the table.

The cold front moving south and swathe of cloud from the frontal systems moving across the Channel/northern France satellite image from METOP-C overhead at 2022/01/03 11:22 UTC

Could be the dd storm in this lot satellite image from METOP-B overhead at 2022/01/02 10:50 UTC

Arctic sea ice extent 2021 at the end of December is the highest in recent years and the 2nd highest in 18 years according to the US Snow and Ice Data Center. A cool summer and autumn, particularly in the western Arctic Ocean, led to a rapid increase in sea ice this year. A marked negative anomaly affected the Hudson Bay still almost entirely free at the end of November. Although delayed by more than a month it finally froze in the last 2 weeks. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/arctic-sea-ice-second-highest-18-years-end-2021-rrc/?fbclid=IwAR3JJWU5n96OyyOXRA6h46BqGS-f7WxxcljXXiHsyznZAEweGnDrFFzVRyY

Cloudy, Ac/Sc, mild and breezy

Stratus, fog. light drizzle, breezy and mild

Camborne 55% of average sunshine for this month

Surprise, surprise. Stratus, mild, light drizzle and breezy

Stratus, slight rain. mild and breezy

An indication of the mild Tm airmass, the tropopause at Camborne at 00 178mb

I realise it wasn't aimed at professional forecasters, but at idiots, and I include myself, who don't go along with the 'chasing cold mantra'. Of course we obviously should not post in this thread which would then avoid any conflict.

I don't actually remember many idiots forecasting the complex upper trough digging a long way south this week initiating the advection of some very mild air for a few days. In my book that is a forecasting failure

Lousy morning.....Stratus, continuous slight rain and breezy

Although just about everyone got the Xmas weather wrong I think that comment wrong/misleading

The role of wave–wave interactions in sudden stratospheric warming formation Abstract. The effects of wave–wave interactions on sudden stratospheric warming formation are investigated using an idealized atmospheric general circulation model, in which tropospheric heating perturbations of zonal wave numbers 1 and 2 are used to produce planetary-scale wave activity. Zonal wave–wave interactions are removed at different vertical extents of the atmosphere in order to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric circulation to local changes in wave–wave interactions. We show that the effects of wave–wave interactions on sudden warming formation, including sudden warming frequencies, are strongly dependent on the wave number of the tropospheric forcing and the vertical levels where wave–wave interactions are removed. Significant changes in sudden warming frequencies are evident when wave–wave interactions are removed even when the lower-stratospheric wave forcing does not change, highlighting the fact that the upper stratosphere is not a passive recipient of wave forcing from below. We find that while wave–wave interactions are required in the troposphere and lower stratosphere to produce displacements when wave number 2 heating is used, both splits and displacements can be produced without wave–wave interactions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere when the model is forced by wave number 1 heating.We suggest that the relative strengths of wave number 1 and 2 vertical wave flux entering the stratosphere largely determine the split and displacement ratios when wave number 2 forcing is used but not wave number 1. https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrIQhLfCsthU70AgQx3Bwx.;_ylu=Y29sbwMEcG9zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1640725344/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwcd.copernicus.org%2farticles%2f1%2f93%2f2020%2fwcd-1-93-2020.pdf/RK=2/RS=EZXj_.HqqyGwvr6BxRTQau1csoY-

satellite image from METOP-C overhead at 2021/12/28 10:06 UTC

Just some bits and bobs of cloud but very windy, gusting 45mph

Still upstream differences from the medium term anomalies this evening involving the alignment of the north Pacific ridge/ tpv ext trough and the incursion of subtropical air into the S/SE of the US. Despite this they all agree on a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the Greenland ridge/adjacent trough, but differ again on the influence, or not, of the Azores HP, Obviously much to be sorted regarding details but the percentage play is changeable with temps above average

Very murky for the last few hours. Stratus, poor vis and continuous slight rain

Earlier moderate rain has now ceased with a mixture of cloud types. Breezy Latest Infra-Red image (AVHRR channel 4, radiated heat)

Still some significant differences with the ext mean anomalies. Notable; the gfs/ecm both have different interpretations of the upstream amplification involving the north Pacific ridge, the plunge of Arctic air down NW North America and subtropical ridging in the south east. And although they both agree on the resulting strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard there remain ongoing differences in the Greenland/NW Atlantic area. A work in progress