knocker

The beatification of the GEM by the punters over in the MOD thread is immanent, but it will no doubt be instantly defrocked if it doesn't deliver

Still stuck under the Sc layer with likely some mdium/high cloud above

Layer of Sc, light breeze and relatively mild

Cloudy, Sc layer and recent slight rain

Finally seeing a clearance from the west

Despite some trough disruption/wave breaking towards the end of the ten day period causiung a slight wobble vis the position of the surface high The ext mean anomalies this morning indicate little change with the NH profile And the clusters pretty much support this view, albeit they will of course have various options

Stratus, continuous slight rain and little wind

Cloud and rain spreading east today, and becoming milder in the warm sector, with some heavy pulses in the NW as the triple pont zips through But tomorrow the cold front is left trailing across the country and a wave has been developing on this away to the south west and through Sunday it continues to develop and track north east, bringing some very strong winds to NW Scotland and the Northern Isles late Sunday/early Monday How strong and where depends on the precise track and intensity. ..the ecm this morning

The ext mean anomalies this evening are still indicating a grand lead up to Xmas with the surface high cell not wandering too far from the vicinity of the UK., courtesy of the energy running between the two tpv lobes via the northern periphery of the ridge. Of course the detail still dependent on the precise position/orientation

This evening's take on the quite intense developing wave Sunday night that will briefly bring some very strong winds to NE Scotland

Yes indeed

Trough disruption repetition from the gfs

Most of the Cu has gone with a fair amount of Ac Floc now Tomorrow's frontal system

The 06 ecm The wave that develops on the front and tracks NE late Sunday/early Monday could briefly bring some very strong winds to NE Scotland

I had assumed that this is why the short range thread was introduced

I assume you can justify such an outlandish comment Pete

But no entrainment of more moist/colder air and thus no higher inversion and Sc layer. All of this to be decided atr a later date

Breezy with some large Cu around and showers in the vicinity

Now that yesterdays frontal rain is slowly clearing the south east, today some heavy shoswers in western regions in the stong NW wind, with hail and thunder in the mix, but in the early hours another frontal system will bring further raim to western regions which will sweep east through Saturday and leaving the waving cold front straddled across the country on Sunday. Temps above average by now but with a marked N/S variation The wave will develop quickly and track NNE, eventually shifting the front south east on Monday Come Tuesaday another frontal system will bring further rain as it tracks across the north of the country Before we arrive at wave breaking towards te end of the week but that's not for this thread

Trough disruption in mid Atlantic towards the latter half of the ten day period not only creates a cut off upper low away to the south west but boosts the expansion of high pressure over southern/central Europe. Evidence of the former is still around in the extended period as well as the consolidation of the high pressure. As ever the precise position/orientation of the latter is key to the detail

Totally miserable day here and still continuous light/moderate rain

Currently Stratus, light drizzle and little wind

And to be fair one of the quoted gfs examples was 11 days away away and wasn't even a Greenland high

satellite image from METOP-C overhead at 2021/12/09 09:59 UTC