knocker

Update on the California Drought (March 31, 2014)

Well regarding next week the main feature according to the ECMWF at the moment seems to be the wind. Could be quite windy early and mid-week with strong SW veering NW winds as the UK is sandwiched between high pressure to the south and low to the NW - N. According to the ENS Ensemble mean 850 hPa temp is near average and the 500 hPa height as the weak positive heights centred over southern France with the UK staying under the influence of it. So I would say pretty unsettled but temps holding up pretty well especially in the east and midlands perhaps 17-18 but Gods country down around 11-13 mark.

Looking at the GFS and UCMWF 850 hPs Temp anomaly Ensembles until Sunday the GFS is a bit more aggressive and gives a slightly higher and more widespread positive anomaly than the ECMWF. Both give warmer temps in the east and south east especially tomorrow in the south east when it could be quite warm.. Heavy showers in the west and a belt of rain on Thursday. The ECMWH Ensemble 500 hPa height anomaly until Sunday. High pressure centred over N. Germany with low pressure to the west and east giving a south westerly flow over the UK.

Nearly put my foot in it here as I had no idea of the date as usual. But fear not AW won't let's down. It's getting even nuttier. "Heeeelp! They are going to throw me in jail!" Or weird denier weirdness from Roger E. Sowell, Esq. at WUWT Must print a comment from one of the loony camp followers. Roger, thank you very much for your excellent article. I am looking forward to your response.Here we have a bunch of crazies destroying Western civilization by raping science and bribing politicians, NGO’s and scientists while they completely wreck our economies leaving written and physical evidence all over the place.I know this question is in the same category as †Could a lawyer have stopped the Nazi’s from starting WWII and root out the Jews†but still.The practices of the totally corrupted UN is going to turn very ugly soon if we don’t undertake something more structural than trying to establish a dialogue with the warmists, an initiative I gave up years ago.In fact we already have numerous human deaths as a direct result from the US and EU bio fuel mandate which triggered the Arab Spring Revolution started as food protests and energy poverty is already killing numerous people, even in the Western nations.I have come to the conclusion that we have arrived in a mortal struggle for the survival of our western civilization and thought it was better to check for legal options before we blow up the world because that’s where we’re heading if these idiots continue to push their insane plans.Now this would be a productive move that would bring us forward instead of defending our views with our back against the wall.At the same time I would like to ask you if there is a case to take on the UN and all in support for abuse of science and scare mongering promoting punishing caps, taxes and restrictions of fossil fuel use and social behavior manipulations to execute their UN Agenda 21 which in principle is a centralist take over (coup) of the entire world, it’s economies, it’s financial system, it’s resources, you name it. http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/04/heeeelp-they-are-going-to-throw-me-in.html

How come you strayed into the model thread?

6/8 Stratus with mist. Temp 8C Wind SE 11mph Pressure 1009 falling

The ensemble 850 anomaly

NSIDC, NASA Say Arctic Melt Season Lengthening, Ocean Rapidly Warming http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/nsidc-nasa-say-arctic-melt-season-lengthening-ocean-rapidly-warming/#.Uznbk6JoqpB

Warming Climate May Spread Drying to a Third of Earth, Says Study http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/3164

Is that the ENS you have posted?

I have an idea it's not this summary but this, Could be wrong of course. More Bad News For Fracking: IPCC Warns Methane Traps Much More Heat Than We Thought The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that methane (CH4) is far more potent a greenhouse gas than we had previously realized. This matters to the fracking debate because methane leaks throughout the lifecycle of unconventional gas. Natural gas is, after all, mostly methane (CH4). We learned last month that the best fracked wells appear to have low emissions of methane, but that study likely missed the high-emitting wells that result in the vast majority of methane leakage. Back in August, a NOAA-led study measured a stunning 6% to 12% methane leakage over one of the country’s largest gas fields — which would gut the climate benefits of switching from coal to gas. We’ve known for a long time that methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO2), which is released when any hydrocarbon, like natural gas, is burned. But the IPCC’s latest report, released Monday (big PDF here), reports that methane is 34 times stronger a heat-trapping gas than CO2 over a 100-year time scale, so its global-warming potential (GWP) is 34. That is a nearly 40% increase from the IPCC’s previous estimate of 25.

I rather like the bear analogy. MIT Climate Scientist Responds on Disaster Costs And Climate Change

They being the 12,000 scientific papers on which the report was based I assume? And the many scientist who produced the report of course. I think any comments regarding methane and fracking could be related to this but then I'm probably teaching granny to suck eggs. New Study Finds Higher Methane Emissions from Frackinghttp://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/New-Study-Finds-Higher-Methane-Emissions-from-Fracking.html

Quiet end to the day after some rain. A sheet of Sc with temp 11C and wind SW 10 mph.

The Atlantic Ocean dances with the Sun and volcanoes http://scitech.au.dk/en/roemer/mar14/atlanterhavet-danser-med-solen-og-vulkaner/

Can't see too much to get excited about.

We had some rain down here on a cloudy day which is breaking a bit now but it wasn't convective.

Maize yields fell 20% in France during 2003 heatwave: example of impact of higher temps | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12069/abstract … | pic.twitter.com/YVoLG307mR

METO NEWS BLOG Red dust covering cars in the south this weekend was blown in from the Sahara Desert. A large amount of sand and dust was swept up by storm winds in the desert, around 2000 miles away in northwest Africa. The airborne particles were blown north to the UK where they combined with our warm air and were deposited during showers. Paul Hutcheon at the Met Office said “We usually see this happen several times a year when big dust storms in the Sahara coincide with southerly winds to bring that dust here. More dust rain is possible during showers expected later this week.†Saharan dust is lifted by strong winds and can reach very high altitudes; from there it can be transported worldwide by winds, covering distances of thousands of kilometers. The dust gets caught in rain droplets in clouds, falling to the ground in rain. When the water evaporates, a thin layer of dust is left on surfaces, like cars. It can also lead to vivid sunsets. Generally winds of more than 20 miles per hour are needed to lift sand at the Saharan Desert has been experiencing some gale force winds (over 40 miles per hour). Saharan dust is also a contributing factor to air quality in addition to pollution levels and weather conditions. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/03/31/storm-in-sahara-sends-dust-to-uk/

California Drought: San Joaquin Valley sinking as farmers race to tap aquifer http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_25447586/california-drought-san-joaquin-valley-sinking-farmers-race

Apropos nothing at all really but it's a lousy day and it's an interesting read. http://geology.com/records/biggest-tsunami.shtml

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=SH212014&starting_image=2014SH21_4KMIRIMG_201403310230.GIF

Thickening As here with some Sc and doesn't feel that warm. Temp 13C with a light SE wind.

I went for a slightly higher figure than that but as you say it's guesswork regarding the synoptics For what it's worth.

METO Regional forecast. South West Headline: Showers spreading northeast, but also brighter periods either side. Warm. Today: Many areas starting dry and bright with some hazy sunshine. Showers probably reaching Cornwall by mid-morning, with a band of heavy and potentially thundery showers spreading northeast across the region this afternoon. Feeling pleasantly warm in mostly light winds. Maximum Temperature 18 °C. Tonight: Any remaining showers clearing the northeast of the region this evening. Most places then dry with clear periods. Mist and patchy fog forming and becoming cold with a local frost. Minimum Temperature 2 °C. Tuesday: Mist and fog patches dispersing leaving some sunny periods. Some showers are likely to develop through the afternoon, especially further west. Feeling warm in light and variable winds. Maximum Temperature 18 °C. Outlook for Wednesday to Friday: Bright spells and showers on Wednesday. Thereafter, bands of rain or showers, some heavy, spreading north with drier and brighter periods inbetween, these most prolonged on Friday. Rather warm. Issued at: 0400 on Mon 31 Mar 2014 UK Headline: Risk of heavy showers in west. Staying generally dry elsewhere. Today: Many areas starting dry with bright periods. Showers developing in southwest England and these spreading northeast this afternoon, some turning heavy and thundery. Many northeastern coastal counties remaining cool, dull and misty throughout the day. Rather warm again further south. Tonight: Thundery rain, mostly in west, spreading northeast this evening, lying over Scotland and northeast England by dawn. Becoming largely dry elsewhere with locally dense fog forming and patchy ground frost. Tuesday: Outbreaks of rain gradually dying out over Scotland. Elsewhere, patchy fog slowly lifting, then mostly dry with warm sunny periods. Isolated heavy afternoon showers developing. Some eastern coasts remaining dull. Outlook for Wednesday to Friday: Dry and bright periods for many, but scattered showers at times, these generally most frequent and widespread in southern and western Britain. Some northeastern areas remaining dull and misty throughout. Issued at: 0400 on Mon 31 Mar 2014