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Everything posted by knocker
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
More or less The upper flow running south of the trough in the NW Atlantic and then backing SW around the ridge into Scandinavia -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not much different to what I have already said ECM. Surface high cell not too far away, perhaps the odd sysyem running around the northern periphery. A spot chart -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at the ecm ext mean and the clusters this morning, the percentage play would not put the surface high too far away from the UK. The 850mb temps above average with maybe the surface a tad below which is as would be expected -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Little change this morning. Through next week, according to the medium term anomalies , trough disruption in mid Atlantic continues to facilitate high pressure expansion NE over the UK and into southern/central Europe. The usual caveats vis detail -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No they don't show that icykev. There is quite a strong south westerly upper flow across the north of England and then over Scandinavia with the ridge indicated south of this over southern Europe where the high cell is likely to be. I'm not keen on posting the odd chart but to give you the idea a couple of mslp charts. And if you are looking at 850mb temp charts they will probably indicate above averrage -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Essentially the medium term mean anomalies are confirming the pattern that has been indicated of late. Regression of the tpv lobe/ext trough in the NW Atlantic and the expansion of hig pressure in west/central southern Europe. Portending a pretty dry period for most with temps around average, albeit possible some frosty/foggy mornings. The detail obviously depending on where the surface high cell is positioned. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite, as subsiding air compresses as it descends, causing adiabatic warming. So the air also becomes drier until it hits the inversion and the likely Sc layer. But just to add what has frequently been said in the past, there are many reasons why 850mb temps are unreliable in many other synoptic situations -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ext mean anomalies continue to indicate regression of the tpv lobe/ext trough in the north west Atlantic which facilitates HP expansin into Europe, portending a more settled period, albeit perhaps a N/S bias, with temps trending above average. Of course if it does pan out like this the position of the surface high cell critical regarding the detail Actually Sidney has been raiding the nut hoard........could mean an early Spring -
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1500 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-4.71,54.25,2731/loc=-9.934,52.433
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Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022
knocker replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A cold, showery and windy day on Weds, with some longer periods of rain, and some snow over the higher ground, courtesy of the wrap around occlusion as Barra fills over the north of England And after a better day on Thursday further frontal rain, again some snow ovder high ground in the North, overnight Thursday into Friday morning- 308 replies
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Sniffing the coffee will become endemic
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Issued 7 December La Niña firmly established in the tropical Pacific La Niña is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest this La Niña will persist until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. La Niña events increase the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer. Most El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators show clear La Niña patterns. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have cooled to La Niña thresholds, with climate model outlooks expecting them to cool further. In the atmosphere, cloud and wind patterns are typical of La Niña, indicating the atmosphere is responding to the changes in ocean temperatures. This feedback process is known as "coupling", and it means La Niña conditions are now expected to be locked in until at least the end of summer. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is near its end, with IOD index values in the neutral range. However, some signs of the negative IOD persist with increased cloud over the eastern Indian Ocean and strengthened westerly winds. Climate models predict the IOD will remain neutral for the coming months, consistent with its typical seasonal cycle. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently entered the western Pacific and strengthened. The MJO is forecast to progress eastwards across the western Pacific over the coming fortnight, which increases the likelihood of above average cloudiness and rainfall across northern Australia and the western Pacific. It also increases the chance that the monsoon will develop in the Australian region in the next week or two—a little earlier than normal. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Although there are still indications from the mid term anomalies of regresssion of the tpv lobe in the NW Atlantic, allowing the Azore HP to ridge north over western Europe, it is a slow process, and in the meantime we are still looking at unsettled weather, albeit with a N/S bias, but in the SW/W fetch temps rising above average -
Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022
knocker replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The movement of Barra and the associated occlusion today http://hebweather.net/wrf/wrf.php?run=00z®ion=BritishIsles&chart=Overview&time=9