knocker

satellite image from METOP-C overhead at 2021/12/09 09:59 UTC

More or less The upper flow running south of the trough in the NW Atlantic and then backing SW around the ridge into Scandinavia

Cloudy Ac/As, recent light rain, but at least the wind has dropped

And to do this how does it negate the energy running around the tpv lobe/ext trough?

Not much different to what I have already said ECM. Surface high cell not too far away, perhaps the odd sysyem running around the northern periphery. A spot chart

Looking at the ecm ext mean and the clusters this morning, the percentage play would not put the surface high too far away from the UK. The 850mb temps above average with maybe the surface a tad below which is as would be expected

Little change this morning. Through next week, according to the medium term anomalies , trough disruption in mid Atlantic continues to facilitate high pressure expansion NE over the UK and into southern/central Europe. The usual caveats vis detail

No they don't show that icykev. There is quite a strong south westerly upper flow across the north of England and then over Scandinavia with the ridge indicated south of this over southern Europe where the high cell is likely to be. I'm not keen on posting the odd chart but to give you the idea a couple of mslp charts. And if you are looking at 850mb temp charts they will probably indicate above averrage

Essentially the medium term mean anomalies are confirming the pattern that has been indicated of late. Regression of the tpv lobe/ext trough in the NW Atlantic and the expansion of hig pressure in west/central southern Europe. Portending a pretty dry period for most with temps around average, albeit possible some frosty/foggy mornings. The detail obviously depending on where the surface high cell is positioned.

Quite, as subsiding air compresses as it descends, causing adiabatic warming. So the air also becomes drier until it hits the inversion and the likely Sc layer. But just to add what has frequently been said in the past, there are many reasons why 850mb temps are unreliable in many other synoptic situations

Breezy this morning with sunny intervals and a fair amount of medium size Cu around

The ext mean anomalies continue to indicate regression of the tpv lobe/ext trough in the north west Atlantic which facilitates HP expansin into Europe, portending a more settled period, albeit perhaps a N/S bias, with temps trending above average. Of course if it does pan out like this the position of the surface high cell critical regarding the detail Actually Sidney has been raiding the nut hoard........could mean an early Spring

Certainly not as windy down here as forecast

1500 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-4.71,54.25,2731/loc=-9.934,52.433

A cold, showery and windy day on Weds, with some longer periods of rain, and some snow over the higher ground, courtesy of the wrap around occlusion as Barra fills over the north of England And after a better day on Thursday further frontal rain, again some snow ovder high ground in the North, overnight Thursday into Friday morning

satellite image from METOP-C overhead at 2021/12/07 10:40 UTC

Rain ceased, a clearance underway from the west

Latest visible image (AVHRR channel 2, reflected sun light)

Sniffing the coffee will become endemic

So it's a case of place your bets for the position of the surface high/ridge ba

With Barra 964mb just west of Galway the moderate rain from the occlusion has arrived here with the surface wind picking up

Issued 7 December La Niña firmly established in the tropical Pacific La Niña is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest this La Niña will persist until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. La Niña events increase the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer. Most El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators show clear La Niña patterns. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have cooled to La Niña thresholds, with climate model outlooks expecting them to cool further. In the atmosphere, cloud and wind patterns are typical of La Niña, indicating the atmosphere is responding to the changes in ocean temperatures. This feedback process is known as "coupling", and it means La Niña conditions are now expected to be locked in until at least the end of summer. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is near its end, with IOD index values in the neutral range. However, some signs of the negative IOD persist with increased cloud over the eastern Indian Ocean and strengthened westerly winds. Climate models predict the IOD will remain neutral for the coming months, consistent with its typical seasonal cycle. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently entered the western Pacific and strengthened. The MJO is forecast to progress eastwards across the western Pacific over the coming fortnight, which increases the likelihood of above average cloudiness and rainfall across northern Australia and the western Pacific. It also increases the chance that the monsoon will develop in the Australian region in the next week or two—a little earlier than normal. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Although there are still indications from the mid term anomalies of regresssion of the tpv lobe in the NW Atlantic, allowing the Azore HP to ridge north over western Europe, it is a slow process, and in the meantime we are still looking at unsettled weather, albeit with a N/S bias, but in the SW/W fetch temps rising above average

The movement of Barra and the associated occlusion today http://hebweather.net/wrf/wrf.php?run=00z&region=BritishIsles&chart=Overview&time=9