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knocker

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Posts posted by knocker

  1. 5 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

    Looks to be a rogue ECM run regarding a shortwave heading North from the Atlantic low at T+120, every other model doesn't have it, or like the GFS makes much less of it, ensemble pack of ECM also doesn't really so looking good currently.

    The gfs temp panels through the 10-15 period show an increasing number of members along the same limes as the ecm. Oh suffering succotash

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  2. 24 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

    I think you'll probably find that calling wet and mild until the end of the year when it's far outside even the depths of FI on the models is more of a 'mugs game' 

    Essentially what you've said is: ignore background signals, have a look at what you see in the models, take that as gospel and run with the thought ls that it'll continue beyond the forecast period exactly the same. 

    Nothing can be taken as gospel just now, not when the extent of the MJO amplification can't be pinned down yet with conflicting forecasts. There's no doubt that whatever verifies with the MJO in terms of amplification will have a knock on effect. 

    MJO aside, it's again subjective to location, in terms of how wet and how mild the near term gets but I'd not be hanging my hat on it continuing until the end of the year, just as much as I'd not be hanging on a colder outlook. There's plenty water to pass under the bridge in the next week or so. 

    I don't think that is what he is saying. But in any case  it is not that easy to evaluate the probable influence of the the forecast background signals on the Atlantic and European weather as some on here make out. But having said that they should always be taken into account along with  a keen scrutiny  of the model outputs.


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4974204
  3. 16 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

    The gfs has a better handle on Atlantic heights than any other model,...the ECM will play catch up with this over the coming days

    meanwhile up top,...the control has a split at 10 hpa and the mean has a warming too.

    gensnh-0-7-384.thumb.png.55267fda038f52c651745887e8791518.pnggensnh-31-7-384.thumb.png.ec14a3f91c55adfd4dd5db7b37d49e8d.png

    we do have a cooler spell of weather midweek next week then a slight warm up before turning seasonal for the Christmas period but that is to be concluded for some time i would think

    tableqoy9_php.thumb.png.f20b347e1b02787fe1f25e1118bae5fc.png

    so plenty to keep tabs on.

    Could you post a link to the research that will corroborate that comment Ta

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  4. Just now, January Snowstorm said:

    Anything after 240hrs is irrelevant!! The key charts are 192 to 240hrs. That's where you look for improvement and try to see do other models pick up this trend. I'm unsure why the gfs runs beyond 240, its meaningless

    Right, and the key to the gfs is the arctic plunge down eastern NA that amplifies the ridge into Greenland with the resultant CAA into Europe. Place your bets on the ecm doing the same but I know where my money is going

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  5. Ocean surface temperatures set records during the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2023. This comparison shows how much warmer the ocean was in 2023 compared to the previous summer

    Introduction

    In 2023, many factors have contributed to remarkably high temperatures on land and in the oceans. One of these factors was the development of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as the corresponding (but not as well known) tropical Atlantic Ocean El Niño. However, this was not the only factor, nor was it the only place that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were notably warmer than normal. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Florida, and in the North Atlantic Ocean also made the news, and these elevated temperatures were implicated in significant weather events, particularly extreme rains and intense tropical cyclones.

    Many maps of SST show anomalies, which are the temperatures compared to a baseline mean temperature averaged over many years (commonly 30 years). While this common depiction is very useful, it is not unusual for temperatures to be warm in the summer (in this case, summer in the Northern Hemisphere). So, in this Data-in-Action article, the NASA visualization tools Giovanni and Panoply are used to compare SSTs averaged over the months of June, July, and August in 2022 and 2023.

    https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/information/data-in-action?title=Comparing Sea Surface Temperatures in June-July-August 2022 to June-July-August 2023&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=earthdata-discovery-122023

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  6. Showcasing the death of the world’s glaciers

    By Audrey Payne

    Among the mountains of evidence that climate change is warming Earth faster than any other point in recorded history is the fact that most glaciers around the world are shrinking or disappearing. Melting glaciers and ice sheets are already the biggest contributors to global sea level rise, and according to the World Glacier Monitoring Service, ice loss rates have increased each decade since 1970. Yet, of the approximately 200,000 glaciers in the world currently, no database exists to identify which glaciers have disappeared, and when. The Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) initiative, an international project designed to monitor the world's glaciers primarily using data from optical satellite instruments, aims to change that.

    “Glaciers are indicators of climate change because they grow and shrink on longer timescales than rapidly changing weather, so they give a clearer signal about climate,” said Bruce Raup, a senior associate scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and director of the GLIMS initiative. “We know that glaciers are disappearing, but we’ve had no way to show that to people. So, we are making an effort to document glaciers that have disappeared and approximately when they disappeared.”

    https://nsidc.org/news-analyses/news-stories/showcasing-death-worlds-glaciers?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=earthdata-discovery-122023

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  7. 7 minutes ago, Derecho said:

    Of course interpreting the data at face value like that there would be a correlation. Though at this time of the year that relationship breaks down under a period of calm conditions. I think that is what you are alluding to here at least.

    In fact at any time of the relationship is fragile if anything impacts the lapse rate such CAA within the layer for example. I would have thought you always need to take great care evaluating  surface temps from the 850s unless other info is also available

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