Isolated Frost
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Posts posted by Isolated Frost
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Many are forgetting that, despite the noticeably lower sunlight hours, September is usually just as warm as June. In Durham, September was warmer than June in 4 of the last 10 years. It mightn't feel like it when the sun sets before 8 and rises after 6.
Meterologically though, I'd imagine that this was the warmest since 2005, or perhaps 2003.
June was provisionally 13.4c, so to beat 2006 in terms of temperature, July and August need to come in at least 16.6c.
I think July was roughly 18c, and August 7-30 is provisionally at 15.9c, with the 1st week warmer, it's likely to have been close to 16.2c to 16.5c so far. 2003 was very similar, so it's touch and go to see whether 2013 has been the warmest summer of the millenium so far, due to that very warm July and the average June and August weather.
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Snow and sleet across much of Iceland this evening- Akureyri webcam, let's get on it
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16.7c likely after corrections imo, anything between 16.6c and 16.9c possible.
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Ripper- 21c and sunny, some cloud, some wind, lovely.
Just noticed I wrote this 2 hours ago and forgot to post! Currently 17c, cloudy, nippy and a tad grim. Ah, Britain...
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I love being out in the cold, jogging, playing tennis/football and cycling. Takes longer to warm up and you don't sweat like hell (I know sweat's good and that, but tell me that after 3 hours in the boiling sun!). I like the warmth and sunshine, but certainly appreciate the cold and dark; being in and watching it is lovely as well.
Certainly noticing the nights drawing in, and waking up at 6 also means I'm starting to fall behind the sunrise!
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Lowest temperature since August 9, with the provisional low being 9.5c. Currently 14c, sunny and increasingly pleasant.
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EC ENS 192 pointing towards that digging trough with the PFJ at a NW-SE tilt; the EC DET generally agrees but pulls in more continental air with a more unstable PFJ; and a slack trough which moves into the subtropics-
The end scenario seems to be anything between wet and mixed rPm, Pm and Tm airstreams from the west and north-west; or the DET solution of negative height tilt (Azores high) and an Iberian trough, with continental airstreams dominating. Many solutions available; with the most likely ones being -ve GPH anomalies across the UK with a nearby trough and alternating airstreams; it looks like the UK will start autumn, meteorologically speaking, in the middle of nowhere... as the atlantic fights a timid battle with the continent (had enough of them last winter!)
Temperatures likely to be slightly above average generally in the 5-15 day period, but at times slightly below with cool E'lies possible and cool NW'lies likely.
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Earlier than usual start it appears, regarding snow growth.
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EC 0Z suite looks pretty average for the time of year, with the upcoming wknd looking cool with some sleet and snow in the highlands, along with temperatures reaching the mid-high teens in the north, early 20's in the south; thereafter, the transient feature cuts off and the sub-tropical ridge forces a mild W/SW flow on Monday, with temperatures likely to reach 20-25c throughout much of the nation, cloudier in the north and more pleasant and clearer in the south.
The ridge soon topples over, and a weak but extensive trough moves across the UK, with a more retrogressive ridge from the subtropics; heights increasing to the west and north-west by 216 and 240, a similar trend.
All in all, active weather, not as benign as recent; but lacking a conclusive influence, with warm SW and cooler NW/N winds alternating.
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Lots of fresh, sunny days, some from the south-west and warm, with calm evenings, and some from the north-west with cold, refreshing evenings with some frosts. And then a storm at the end of it.
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Getting down to 2c I'd expect within the next 2 weeks with current modelling, possibly an isolated air frost or two and plenty of slight ground frosts around, until October kicks in.
I'll say either Sennybridge, Shap or Tulloch Bridge; late September.
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June 6/10
July 8/10
August (so far) 6/10
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I'll agree there - summer you do feel like you should be out doing something if its light. Certainly winter excels at allowing guilt free doing bugger all for much more of the time... despite how trapping/unhealthy that can end up being!
I guess, but I enjoy going out and running and that in winter as it's cooler and I can do more when I don't get dehydrated/sweaty. I live in a pretty good neighbourhood and there's a coffee shop down the road, which means I'll usually be out of the house much of the time regardless of the weather.
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Love long nights, much more atmospheric, relaxing and interesting for me. Nothing better than a walk out in the dark in the morning or evening, especially with a cool breeze. Playing football is easier, as you warm up without getting sweaty or dehydrated, and going out is generally better as during the night, everyone seems to be more active, bizarre as it sounds.
And then you have times where it's 6am and you wake up, and it's completely calm outside, frost on the grass, dark sky, and a silence bar a slight breeze. Nothing better (maybe a metre of snow actually!).
However, it's nice to chill with mates during long days; and when it's warm and sunny it's perfect to chill. I just feel less selfish and happier when I can sleep for more than 8 hours and it's still dark. Not wasting daylight that way.
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Expecting a windy, wet and warm autumn.
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Yesterday, at 14h20, the day length was double the shortest day, December 21, at 7h11.
The day length here, and in brackets the amount of days to lose an hour of day
sub 14h: August 29
sub 13h: September 12 (14d)
sub 12h: September 25 (13d)
sub 11h: October 9 (14d)
sub 10h: October 23 (14d)
sub 9h: November 6 (14d)
sub 8h: November 23 (17d)
Starting to lose over 4 minutes every day now, first sub 8pm sunset on September 1, and first post 6am sunrise tomorrow.
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part 2 (for December to March)
AO for October neutral and November neutral (very dry, increasingly mild)
+ve heights across the UK, slowly moving SE towards the start of Spring, large -ve heights to the north, dry throughout
AO for October neutral and November positive (similar to above, but slightly milder and wetter)
extreme +ve heights to the south and south-west of the UK and -ve heights to the north, very wet, very mild, one of the warmest possible solutions
AO for October neutral and November negative (colder, increasingly wetter, stormy)
strong +ve heights to north and north-east, -ve heights to south-west, increasingly -ve heights over the UK, very wet, colder to the north and north-east
AO for October positive and November neutral (mixed start, increasingly stormy and milder)
general southerly flow earlier on, average temperatures and rainfall, turning stormier and wetter into February and March
AO for October positive and November positive (colder and drier, at times much warmer, dominated by the continent)
beginning slightly subdued, +ve anomaly over UK and to north and south/east, -ve anomaly to west, SE flow, increasing E flow into January and February... curiously January 1987 and February 1991 both occurred during the 3 of the past 30 years in which October and November had a +ve AO, conductive to continental outbreaks?
AO for October positive and November negative (mild start, increasingly cold from the east, very dry)
begins with generally -ve heights over Europe and +ve heights over Russia, increasingly cold as -ve heights drop south and +ve heights move into the north and west, very dry and increasingly cold
AO for October negative and November neutral (extremely cold, deep north and east winds)
huge +ve anomaly to the north and north-west,-ve anomaly to the south, consistently cold north/east flow, very, very cold
AO for October negative and November positive (very dry, average to cooler)
weak -ve anomaly to the east and +ve heights surrounding it, generally dry and mixed, becoming milder and drier later on
AO for October negative and November negative
none found
I think that this is a really interesting experiment, because the consistency of the composites are very good, considering it is based on one teleconnection based on roughly 2 month lag; for coldies, the best AO pattern seems to be September -ve, October -ve and November -ve, something that has happened just once since records began in 1950, in 1968/69, for sun lovers it seems to be September +ve, October neutral and November neutral, and for storm obsessors, 3 neutrals would seem to suffice
again, any feedback would be great and any criticism as well
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a few AO composites I've been working on, with pretty sound results
AO for September neutral and October neutral (mild, wet and southwesterly dominated)
Strong signal for -ve anomaly over Iceland and Greenland during November-February, especially in December-February. Much milder for NW Europe and colder for SE Europe during the winter months when AO is neutral in both September and October.
AO for September neutral and October positive (mixed start, cold ending from the east)
-ve heights to north and east and +ve heights for south and west to begin winter, but when rolled onto December-February, it's a strong signal for +ve heights to north and east and -ve heights for south.
AO for September neutral and October negative (stormy and mixed throughout, very wet)
strong consistent signal for +ve heights to the north, and then north-west and -ve heights across the UK.
AO for September positive and October neutral (generally mild, very dry and high pressure dominated)
consistent signal for +ve heights across the UK, and increasingly -ve heights to the north later on in the winter. Colder for E Europe.
AO for September positive and October positive (extremely mild, quite wet)
+ve heights to east and -ve heights to west with Southerly flow early on, changing to more SW/W flow with increased precipitation later on.
AO for September positive and October negative (mixed signals, 2003/04 and 2005/06 milder, 2009/10 and 2012/13 cooler)
an anomaly. 2003's and 2005's November AOs were positive, and therefore late January and February relatively mild, whilst 2009's and 2012's November AOs were neutral, after extremely -ve October AOs, which gave exceptionally cold January/February conditions
AO for September negative and October neutral (cold start, drier and less cold later on)
extreme +ve anomalies to the north and west, -ve anomalies to the south-west and south, very cold early on, turning milder as +ve anomalies move south and -ve anomalies to the north appear
AO for September negative and October positive (only 2001/02, but similar to above, less cool and slightly milder)
very dry with +ve heights over UK early on, they transfer south later on with -ve heights to the north and a wetter, milder end to winter
AO for September negative and October negative
none found
That's part 1 of this 'experiment', part 2 will have October-November links that will give composites for December-March, I was really surprised at how consistent these composites were, and will definitely use them to make a forecast this winter
Hope this is interesting to anyone and feedback would be appreciated
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Based purely on Arctic oscillation- and general June-July pattern, my autumn prediction. BFTV, a lot of it resembles your forecasts very well.
September
Temperatures slightly above, especially in the east. Precipitation about average, or slightly below.
October
Temperature slightly above, especially in the south. Precipitation average, slightly higher in the north and west.
November
Temperature strongly above, especially in the east. Precipitation above average, strongly.
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Mild and very wet day with constant rain and a high of 19c. Currently 14c.
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first sunset in Svalbard since April 18, vive l'hiver
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Big ice contraction over the last two days, especially towards the Alaskan side.
Meltback of snow in Scandi mtns, but new snow in Siberia, Nunavut and the Himalayas.
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Unhealthy addiction with the cold and dark now; had a coffee today and then had a walk outside in the pouring rain as the sun set. Nothing better than a jog in the dark and rain.
5:59am sunrise tomorrow, it's getting there...!
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17c, mild and cloudy with a bit of sun.
Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Ahhh... Iceland. Vive le neige- summer's overrated!