Isolated Frost

Thanks for that, looks beautiful there right now. Noticeable new patch in Lapland today aswell. For those of you who know about the ICEHOTEL, or would like to: http://www.icehotel.com/uk/ICEHOTEL/Webcam/ Started work over there now! Snow blowers yesterday, and now building has commenced...

I can see a high is being placed over France/Spain area, should mean a possibly S'ly dominated November. Question is, will it stick for December, or will it be a complete reversal, like last year?

Thanks for the feedback. The zones are the most important part to me, as the papers usually read: SE England = UK. Blush. Thanks. Will do the Ireland forecast for the winter soon! Also thanks to everyone commenting, even tinmead, always interesting to learn new stuff...

They will be added on my full December-March Forecast on December 4th. The possible Bartlett High in FI could signal a slightly different start to December, if it's still there by then.

Exactly. Friday Heavy Snow, on the top of the Highlands, maybe. Can't get it right from 2 days out!

Nature's signs? Well, I saw some white stuff on my way to my mate's on Wednesday morning...

Yey! Building it up now, trucks there and everything! Might be going there in December, so great to see the process starting!

I've used what I expect from the CFS models, the teleconnections of La Nina and what I think looks like being it's affect on the Atlantic this year, the summary of patterns on a strong La Nina, aswell as the current European Pressure/Pattern situation. I've been checking precipitation and pressure models for precip. figures and I've been following the situation of the Gulf Stream, along with the current AO & NAO situations.

Wow! Maybe a while away, but looking a tad nippy in the Highlands!

100% = Average local value I.E. The av. temp for N England is 5C, the temp for 2010 December is 4C if 80%, 3C if 60%, or 8C is 160%. Same for precip. All in all, practically basing this year's December average on the long term one.

December: N Scotland + Shetland/Orkney/Western Isles (80% Temp./70% Precip.) I expect a cooler than average start to temperatures with blocking towards Greenland, the blocking slowly moves southwards and gives a westerly-dominated start to the month, NW & W continue throughout, with temperatures around average, snowfall throughout the Western Isles and the Nevis/Cairngorm area will be slightly cooler, with NE Scotland and the Northern Isles, the 528 Dam Line slowly moves south throughout and the Northerly Blocking moves Eastwards, giving Wintry PPN to most of this area, uppers of around -8/-10 throughout the cold spell with NNE & NE's dominating. As the month goes on, the winds pull from the East, and a small Scandi High arrives. Cold end with snow-covered New Year period for most. Rest of Scotland (70% Temp./90% Precip.) I expect a cool, wet start with Wintry PPN throughout the Central areas and Scottish Border region. I expect the wet weather to continue, until a settled patch in the middle of the month, giving below average temperatures and clear skies, with hard frosts above 300/500m. Then, as the wind moves Easterly during the latter part of the month, snow showers hit, giving cool temperatures and heavy falls, I expect the Air Pressure to be above average throughout the month. Coldest along the Western areas. N England (80% Temp./60% Precip) I expect a cool start in the west, with warmer temperatures in the East. I forsee hard frosts in the Pennines and Lake District area, with heavy snowfall in the North West. I predict a turn in fortunes, with the East seeing the cooler weather in the mid and latter parts of the month, with below average Precip. and dryness throughout, I think there will be NE dominated month, with snow showers along the NE Coast and North York Moors at times, but overall dryness prevails, with some Westerly winds giving snowfall to areas in the North Pennines and Yorkshire. I think that throughout Yorkshire, it will be coolest, thanks to prevailing Northerlies and North Easterlies, and a White Christmas and New Year to Yorkshire and Humberside. Midlands (70% Temp./50% Precip.) I think the Midlands will be repaid, after falling behind last year, I think it will see a similar picture to Yorkshire, with cold throughout, the West Midlands will be coldest, with frost hollows experiencing -10C throughout the month, and snowfall to be widespread during N'ly/E'ly spells, especially along the East Coast. I think that thanks to blocking in the NE, cold shoots of air will give record low windchill temps. throughout the month. I expect some stormy conditions towards the end of the month, in the East Midlands, thanks to NE'ly and W'ly colliding, with low pressure. SW England & Wales (90% Temp./80% Precip.) I expect a cold, wet and snowy start to the month, along with some mild evenings. As the Northerly/North Easterly' arrives, a cold spell arrives, with dry weather, ensuring most snow collected from the start of the month, is preserved without additional falls. The cold continues, until South Wales and the South West see a milder spell towards the end of the month, with hailstorms, along with Thunderstorms, a W'ly takes control towards January. S & SE England (70% Temp./90% Precip.) I expect an average, to warm start, apart from on the South Coast to December. With cold N'ly spells giving some falls to the rural areas of the region. I then expect the middle of the month to be cold and dry, and transitional, as the temps slowly fall and precipitation lands as snowfall in London aswell, giving a perfect scenario after Christmas, as a NE'ly blasts the region, with heavy falls, and low temps. So, roughly along the same lines as NW, cool and dry, with a late outburst. I think the CET will be 3.2C and the E&W Rainfall Series will come out at 70%. I think a cold month for pretty much everywhere, I think the prevailing wind will be NW/NNW in the Western areas of England & Wales, with N/NNE/NE on the Eastern Coastline area.

Yep, very possible for the day or few days near Christmas (or any few days throughout), however Easterlies usually will on the whole, influence Eastern Scotland & North East England. I won't doubt the White Christmas possible in the SE and not anywhere else, however I would imagine it would be extremely rare for the SE on a whole to be cooler than everywhere else throughout the whole month, even on average. camiscool! Do you have an explanation, or is it pure fun! I will be posting my Winter Forecast tonight.

Don't you mean 'My December Forecast' don't you mean Bit of a hopecast, IMO, as in the SE getting colder and snowier weather, I'm not quite sure how that is possible, bit of bias maybe? Anyway, at this time of year, everything is still pretty much a hopecast!

Do you think that if we chipped in £5 each, we could abolish the Daily Mail. 'Netweather, which correctly predicted last winter's big freeze, as well as the mixed summer, is forecasting a cold December and a white Christmas.' Did we? 'But they touched down yesterday at dawn. So crank up your central heating and get out your thermals... because winter is about to bite.' The Daily Mail on Swans.

Dew Point I posted this on 'Cold Spell Discussion'. Quite interesting. Type in a (or your) temp and humidity, go on Celsius, and press calculate. Important for this winter possibly?

Yep, I had a nice dusting on the ground on christmas morning. Back on topic, good and likely forecast by NW, hopefully they are right again. NUDGE NORTH WEST BLOCKING TO NORTH EAST OR ELSE...

Honestly, they get right on my nerves.

Stewart has noticeably more knowledge than most at the MO for me, he uses real scientific answers and is a genius in meteorology, you really should look at Forecasting Model Discussion. GP has really interesting stuff on there, my understanding of everything has improved ten-fold since I visited his profile and read his comments, I can't say anything apart from he has (for me) got easily more credentials than any 'Professional Forecaster'.

A HP system to the North West gives North Westerlies and Northerlies. As the wind always comes from the HP system.

Agreed.

Well, I'd love a cold, dry winter with a few snow showers interspersed. I think the forecast is excellent and very well reasoned, I think this is the one I'm trusting for now. Not any of that PWS garbage

How come? I'm sure there will be more snow still. You can't base everything on one forecast. Anyway, wasn't last winter drier than average, we all know what happened there

Exactly what I expect. Seems like a good forecast, however, with HP centered near the west, how does the west receive higher snowfall?

I'd have faux cold all winter. Frosty nights

Yep. LR Models show a possibly easterly-dominated December, which would mean a December possibly (possibly) colder and snowier than last year's, for the eastern areas of England and Scotland. Can't say yet though.