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Isolated Frost

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  1. Isolated Frost
    Tropospheric response by mid jan looks to be an extensive polar high with the hotspots being North Pole and Iceland - and the polar vortex energy split between eastern Scandinavia and Hudson Bay - the EC forecasts seem to extend the stratospheric ridge into Baffin which will cause fluctuations in their 500mb modelling. Northerly extending into north easterly ?
  2. Isolated Frost
    What we perhaps would also like to note is that the current 10mb highest temp is 7c!! Now that is quite something, and judging by the mean zonal charts, the tropospheric vortex is not going to have a fun time...
  3. Isolated Frost
    Interesting he touches up on an east based -NAO pattern emerging, and that his week 3/4 composites seemed pretty conclusive on heights over Greenland and Iceland, with troughing over Britain and Scandinavia.
  4. Isolated Frost
    GFS 06z forecasts for the polar high to emerge over Greenland at 30hpa for d15, which is very encouraging- In all forecasted regions of the strat, the secondary warming (that at 30hpa stems from a polar high 'push' in the arctic ocean area) will take the vortex energy from NE Canada to Alaska- transporting most cold energy and also weakening the vortex substantially (even at 100hpa)- as shown by the d16 forecast The response would be for a gradual shift towards heights to the north (Iceland-Greenland-Svalbard), with weakening energy moving progressively west in the medium term in Canada. The lingering vortex at 100hpa then transports from Siberia into Scandinavia and western Russia by d14- and so the likely shift to MJO phase 7 (from 6-- watch EC 240 this morning) and the likelyhood of retrogressive motion in our locale (as touted by the GFS) towards Greenland Tropospheric response is pretty sharp on the ball- I would say the likelyhood of colder conditions setting into much of western and northern Europe increases significantly from around the 12th of January
  5. Isolated Frost
    A perfect GFS 18z stratospherically, troposphere-wise and finally on the surface (or near enough)- d11 onwards is an example of many solutions that will be touted by the nwp to this mammoth hemispherical change- Hemispherically, one of the charts of the winter so far (I say hemispherically because snow-wise, we have seen better earlier on in December)- the hint of retrogression, accompanied by the undercut, and the startled PV segment over eastern Scandinavia generally are 'perfection' or thereabouts- Keeping in mind that we are a long way away, but the GFS suites have been very consistent in allocating blocking heights towards Greenland after d10/d11- this with the vortex dynamics modelled by the ECM and GFS suites is very, very encouraging ^yum
  6. Isolated Frost
    Interesting to note the tropospheric polar vortex at d16 shifts from Siberia into Sapporo! Insane conditions over northern Japan !
  7. Isolated Frost
    Strong reversal of zonal winds at 240 in the upper strat- according to the EC-DWD output; it is truly notable and something that would (with time and propagation), tear apart the tropospheric vortex; the EC warming continues to be somewhat less pronounced than the GFS- roughly 10-15c so.. this may not entirely be important, but is notable at such a time range- of note has to be the GFS 384 solution, at 10hpa, lowest temp is roughly -65c, which is quite something.. the dynamics of the situation will flow through slowly after the original displacement, but the dominant vortex is likely to be completely mauled- the solution of squeezing in a more amplified stratospheric polar high in it's place over the arctic around d9/d10 in current modelling suggests that, stratospherically at first, the lingering attempts of cold energy will be separated between the Canadian and Siberian sectors- though with such little significance in the remnants, and a focus towards an Aleutian low (as another warming in the Canadian sector occurs) at d15 onwards on the latest GFS suites, I would be highly surprised if the tropospheric response (generally highlighted by the upcoming nwp) isn't reactionary and provides a progressive picture of Greenland heights MJO wise.. the GFS has slowly caught on with UKMO forecasts, movement in phases 5 and 6 for now is not terribly bad, and a less amplified signal is of course very much welcome January represents a marked change in the hemispheric pattern, and now the balloon has burst, it looks like we're about to set it on fire..
  8. Isolated Frost
    I'm pretty sure you can- credit to netweather extra.
  9. Isolated Frost
    I honestly struggle to see how the stratospheric vortex will be maintained by the end of January- Brickfielder's post a while back highlighted the different scenarios, it's possible we could go through them all- propagation into the tropo-vortex would then become the crux of the analysis in the next few weeks ` It's having one last laugh now, but it's about to get torn apart... whether we get lucky or not is another question, but isn't it fun watching it crumble alone?!
  10. Isolated Frost
    An SSW is forecast only, but is very likely to occur. Around the 5th-7th Jan seems a likely date, what is more important is how the vortex reacts and the increased influence of the Polar high.
  11. Isolated Frost
    It's just cloud and drizzle. Bit mild, sometimes cool. Not much of note. Hopefully next week will provide some sunshine and warmth at the least, and afterwards we hope for a distinct pattern change. We'll have to put up with this atlantic dominated weather for at least another 2 weeks imo, so hopefully some high pressure ridging or a northerly toppler can provide some entertainment until the effects of the SSW are felt, and the synoptics change radically across the NH (whether that will be positive or not so is still to be seen).
  12. Isolated Frost
    Ey up! Polar high decimates the vortex on the 12z and the stratospheric high ridges well south through the arctic... by D13, a nifty Greenland warming comes into play. Lots of solutions to come but the 12z is a beaut! edit: difference between the two suites is that the 12z has strong warmth moving in from Siberia at 10hpa, fuelling the polar high and meridional flow to split the polar vortex- it's a superb run for polar vortex 'destruction' in the upper atmosphere, though not quite yet
  13. Isolated Frost
    4.4c to the 27th.
  14. Isolated Frost
    I can't predict, but if pushed to, my analogues would be conductive to a negative anomaly of -1c to -3c in Portugal for January. For Coimbra, this is a high of about 10c and a low of about 1c.
  15. Isolated Frost
    I know the current synoptics don't look great for colder weather (at least in the next 10 days)- but a ridging high pressure system moving into the UK is perfect (considering the atlantic and arctic signals atm). Warmer, potentially sunnier weather at times for much of England and Wales, potentially Scotland at times, with a respite for those in flooded areas. Frosts by night, potentially harsh ones at times, with temps at around 8-10c by day, under sunshine and fair cloud for most. Lovely!
  16. Isolated Frost
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 4.3c to the 26th. Landing range of about 4.6c to 4.9c before corrections. With the similar start, but cooler finish, dominated by polar maritime air, I dare say Scotland will finish off cooler than the average, by a considerable margin.
  17. Isolated Frost
    You can never tell the tropospheric response at this stage (-10d from SSW), but the overall outcome would be more conductive to northern blocking, with vortex energy moving elsewhere, potentially away from northern latitudes- the crux of the current warming will be how the vortex responds (and to a lesser extent, where the polar high and associated ridge puts itself)- Right now, I couldn't tell you, but the chances of cold will increase for Iberia as we progress through January. Ask back in perhaps a week or so and confidence will be higher as the NWP comes to grips with the energy 'spill' from the initial warming.
  18. Isolated Frost
    On the latest GFS 06z suite, the stratosphere's top temperature at 10mb is above 0c from +81 to +216, peaking at an incredible 10.1c at +129. Regardless of the overall outcome, it truly is a pleasure to witness the atmosphere change so dynamically and the processes involved.
  19. Isolated Frost
    Ho ho woah! Superb ssw predictions, strat on the shandy?!
  20. Isolated Frost
    The warming is not as strong on the 18z GFS suite as on the 12z suite- but instead of the vortex (albeit crumbling and in pieces) being situated to the north/north-west of us, the warming takes it from Greenland to Scandinavia, with lessening energy movement from D15 onwards- A new signal that would be very positive for us here- you can see the potential opening up slowly but surely edit: HAPPY CHRISTMAS!
  21. Isolated Frost
    ?
  22. Isolated Frost
    3.2c s'il vous plait.
  23. Isolated Frost
    -3c at 192, end of hi-res as well. Definitely moving into strong warming territory; whether it can penetrate into the strat-vortex core is another matter, but the steady synoptic changes we will see over the next month in the NH will be interesting and part of my fascination with weather and meteorology really.
  24. Isolated Frost
    GFS 6z at D10 keeps the core polar vortex energy in NE Siberia, and a ridging vortex in NE Canada into Greenland- the long term prediction, moving into D15 is the shift of the NE Canada energy into a more southern clime, around SE Canada/Newfoundland- whilst keeping in a more optimistic western ridge into Greenland- the nwp output at a similar timescale favours a Polar High emerging- what the GFS 0z does to the tropo-vortex is completely take out the Greenland ridge with a squeezing high moving in- this could in turn end the pattern of lower heights to the north and north-east GFS 6z solution at D16 is for the Siberian sector to remain under the polar energy, without the previous ridge into Scandinavia- and the shift towards the pv to SE Canada.. The signal for me is that pattern rises to the NE are likely in the next 16-24 day period, with heights very low towards the NW, a sort of battleground again (note, this is before the stratospheric warming takes influence on us, so the pattern looks likely to be increasingly transient).
  25. Isolated Frost
    Winter was mild (apart from a week of cold, drizzly south-easterlies). Spring was okay (March beautiful, April useless, May had some late warmth). Summer... I would rather not talk about it. Autumn... ditto (bar a superb cold spell in October, and some sun at times!). December was very cold to begin with, a few good snowfalls, and then mild and cloudy since, with a lot of rain. Generally crap, with some less crap in between. What I would give for 2010 again! Cold January, February, March, November and December, seasonal Spring and Autumn- warm Summer. Ahhh.
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