Isolated Frost

Apart from a reduction in the +ve anomaly to the SE of Greenland- the anomalies for Svalbard-Russia and mainland Europe look extremely alike and following NWP also suggest this, along with the temperature anomalies that look very close. I'd say he's pretty much as close as one can be.

I'm saying, January 29th- Tulloch Bridge -18.9c, Altnaharra -19.1c.

BT- temps here aren't expected to pass 3c until Thursday night with sharp frosts, freezing fog and ice days in the countryside. Just because teleconnections promoted northern blocking didn't necessarily mean we would bare the brunt of it. We have been very unlucky granted but it's very common- and it's certainly not zonality!

It's coming... another GFS suite solid in it's preservation of northern blocking, esp around Siberia- coupled with troughing towards the W of the UK- and a weak signal for heights over N Africa- the solution of a rampant p-f jet over the north pacific entering a cold block around Canada at D7 is interesting and the long term solution will be v interesting

How do you get these ? Forecaster or previous one ? Heights building towards northwest territories on the EC det- notable shift in the vortex- random look at 20hpa signifies the real time movement over the next 10 days, a loop as Lorenzo had shown really signifies the change that the middle atmosphere is about to experience- Early signs of the Pole returning to above average...

Superb L !

I must ask, can you get them charts in ECM and ECM ENS? I'd seriously consider them if so

Spot on- the heights towards Svalbard have retrogressed towards Greenland in recent days, the blocking to the North and North-East is infact extensive as you can see throughout the GEFS and ECM ENS- Indeed the vortex signal moves from Canada to Siberia imminently with the support of a change in stratospheric conditions- note the pressure rises likely STILL in Greenland- similar to the timeframe GP indicated- A good composite showing the expected low heights o/ Europe and strong heights o/ Svalbard/Novaya Zemlya, expect this composite to further strengthen the Greenland signal in upcoming days, and reduce the atlantic +ve signal- At the D20 mark, I'm expecting GP to be very similar with his forecast indeed- afterwards a lot is in the air. It seems that many are getting confused at the combination of the lack of snow and current NWP output and confusing it with the obvious legitimacy of a perfectly sound forecast so far.

-12c air into Germany with a wide scope for snow shrs into the Benelux and Poland from the NE at 12z tomorrow via the cold ridge splitting SE into Britain- EC progs a pretty SE/S flow over much of Scandi and C Europe next wk via a Russian high- and a scaling SW-NE tinted jet; the D8 synopsis greatly typifies the struggle with getting a mean E flow due to energy into Svalbard

^ Incorrect. Current northern blocking anomalies. Anomaly for first 8 days. It is a misconception that because the UK hasn't see notable/widespread snow- northern blocking has been evident.

A snapshot at D5 of the US 850 temps outlook- pretty notable arctic air as cold air is whipped into the mid-latitudes as a result of the relocating vortex energy- this excess energy in turn fuels the succession of atlantic low pressure systems that quash any attempted build up of a mid-atlantic ridge; something I recall GP touching upon.. the result is generally high pressure to the south-west and to the north, with a mean trough to the west of the nation and cyclonic S/SW winds dominating- Another one of note will be a pulse of notably lower geopotential heights that develop over the temperature difference between the remote Ural high and mountain energy over Mongolia- this should move into Scandinavia/C Europe at D9/D10 with associated sub -15c 850 air temps- as this passes, expect the tint of the blocking heights to rotate over western Russia and allow a E/SE airflow to enter much of Europe- the cut-off being an extended low pressure system over Britain

The first 8 days of December anomaly- GP looking good for his word if I do say so and anomalies suggest the next 8-14 days will be very similar- good work so far Stu! Timmytour- the above should explain that; a transfer of stratospheric energy towards Siberia as heights become conductive to rises around Baffin once more; the profile for a SSW around early January is most certainly possible The tendency for a drop in zonal winds in the mid-stratosphere at 60N for D8/D9 has been consistent past recent days

Question. After 7 days of being under a 1055-1060 blocking high, how cold will it be at dawn in a Ural valley? The major point of the 12z is the Azores-Greenland link-up will occur earlier as a result of progression- from a more weather 'geek' rather than 'enthusiast' view, the strength and intensity of this block against an atlantic which is lacking of typical systems- is bloody enjoyable!

Playing bloody football for the school in violent hail shrs mixed with heavy sleet.. ARGH!

As the transfer of energy takes place across the arctic- the only erratic longwave feature is the atlantic flow; the pfj tint is more SW-NE rather than W-E on this run and accordingly more energy is moved up into Britain and Central Europe on it's eastern frontier- The notable heights over Novaya Zemlya can really make inroads if the more temporary progressive Azores ridge falters- the 12z suite is often progressive so the GEFS will provide a sharper guide as to where we stand-

What is annoying is people lambasting some of the 'experts' on here, such as GP and Chio. I recall someone saying 'what happened?' to GP's forecast where he said heights on the N and NE are likely to retrogress towards Greenland... well, it did- you can't go mad at them for getting things right and then we end on the wrong side of the shortwave pattern- this is why many pros don't issue snow warnings and the such- the longwave pattern is forecasted well; the nwp find the shortwaves in time.. and so far December is colder than average, by about 2c in many areas, so I'd say he's been pretty spot on

Rain and sleet at 0.1c dew point so far this morning. Radar looking fruitful for those on high ground round here.

ahhhh... what a beauty! Heavy snow for Scotland and northern England; Keeps in line with the teleconnective signals- a slight shift in the dispersal of atlantic energy and the 18z suite provides a just outcome, interesting ensembles to come through I'm sure.. the extent of northern blocking is again notable and I'm sure FI will promote another stratospherically-backed transfer of mean heights westwards...

And it looks like a retrogressive block takes the 18z- fights very well into the atlantic low belts. The note with 'cyclonic' SW'lies over 'anticyclonic' SW'lies are that cyclonic ones are dictated by the cooler, wetter air around it. We would most likely receive a rPm airstream, instead of a Tm airstream- noting the lack of heights over central and southern europe and a notable jet tint- D5 on the ECM ENS shows the atlantic is by no means 'in'- the block will dictate matters and as such only the far south and west are likely to envisage any 'milder' conditions- The transfer of energy across the arctic will catch the nwp out and solutions will be many- the overall pattern is for a mean south to south-east flow, with temperatures cooler and precipitation lower in the east.

That is a fair point but the clusters often will highlight the extremes and the ens mean will gauge the overall feeling quite well- the det has been swaying erratically and you have to urge real caution upon it- I'm not saying disregard the Ops but I am saying that in such a climate (no pun intended), we must look at the broad picture

Anyone seen the GEFS 00z suite? 120 looks positively snowy for many NEern parts, as well as many higher central parts; can't post charts as on mobile. ECM ENS looks pretty similar but moves the trough belt NEwards leading to a mean west/north-west flow over southern parts. Another positive NW-SE tint of the jet axis- expect a similar scenario to the GFS 00z op which ejected an undercutting shortwave- Don't get too hooked up on the Ops- your ensemble means are the best bet taking a large scope of possibilities..

That is from the Met Office's alert this morning for Monday 0000 to Friday 0800- do you think the pros at Exeter will react immediately to NWP? Or will their FAX product reflect the current predictions prior to these latest ops?

Pfft- I missed the one major snowfall- never mind the model chaos!

UKMO joins the GFS in the respect that shortwaves influence the ridge to build over the UK- which is worrying in terms of convective snow shrs over the NE for Monday onwards. FAX coming out now.

An upgrade wrt the cold moving in a lot closer, and a NE flow for Monday- after that- it went shortwave crazy! GFS has a very interesting relationship with shortwaves- will wait until the UKMO, FAX and ECM ENS to reserve judgment on the GFS.