Isolated Frost

You raise fair points- but the point I was making is that pressure will be relatively similar in both scenarios- and though the upper high may be slightly nearer (though to the west)- the surface high pressure centre is deep to the north east. GFS 12z an upgrade with a more shallow low to the east, a more progressive ridge allowing NE winds to arrive earlier for Monday- though as you say, plenty of nail biting... and fun

Ignoring the less cold air flow- I wouldn't worry about the proximity of the hp ridge, which the GFS certainly is very much promoting- against the other nwp and human input

hi-res NMM precip for Tuesday morning- quite a wishbone effect, but does move further inland and is quite heavy. -7c and -8c uppers definitely conductive to heavy snow shrs- SSTs around 9c as of today- could warm it up quite a bit so we maybe need uppers of colder than -6c and 950mb temps (important in this situation) around -2c or lower- lots of convection to be had though

Tyne and Wear/Durham Sunday morning Sunday afternoon Sunday evening Monday morning Monday afternoon Monday evening Tuesday morning Tuesday afternoon Tuesday evening My highly amateur expectations of how the first 3 days of the upcoming spell will pan out- in terms of weather conditions- intermittent snow shrs on Monday becoming more prolonged and heavy on Tuesday.

Difference between the NAEFS and the GFS is generally that the GFS seems to really overpower that atlantic belt- both seem to indicate a slow transfer of heights from Iceland/Greenland towards Svalbard/Scandi this coming week- and a stable Euro trough that starts to transfer energy NW'wards within D7. Rather intense pattern around Alaska- with a strong north pacific high, something GP noted- I find it quite notable how people will still find room to complain about such charts- I imagine it is because of a raging easterly that would never materialise, was projected on a few NWP at D8? Latest FAX for Monday lunchtime with a trough in the N sea- indicative of the convective n/ne flow, snow shrs for many northern and eastern parts.

A touch yesterday morning, nothing to get giddy about! Nick- Alza said he had 8cm and (apparently), my dad had 6cm soon after that pic Love the MT- crying over the lack of an incredible easterly with -10c uppers widespread and the lot! I've given up on them now- all I can say is, the FAXes and MO updates look very conductive to a north, turning north-east/east-north-east flow beginning Monday... and as far as I am concerned, the easterly can do one! We never seem to do to well with easterlies compared to convective NE'lies or ENE'lies. The breakdown also looks potentially very wintry next Friday onwards with continental SE'lies against a pretty powerful atlantic low- if the block can retain itself, some very heavy snow next weekend is possible. Already a better winter than the last one...

It feels weird to be choosing between snowy N/NNE winds with cold uppers or E/NE winds with cold uppers and shortwaves after the pre-2008 period!

The far north thread! Only place to be Can't believe I missed the 6-8cm fall here on Wednesday, sickening! Next week is looking synoptically superb for the region. The possibilities that lie for the NE in particular from Monday onwards are infinite. Staggering.

I love you! Anyway, I've been away for a few days and came back to some cracking charts... and people talking about D10 breakdowns already?! Argh! FAXes very supportive of snow shrs penetrating well inland from the E/NE Monday onwards and as Ian notes, some very cold temperatures. Incredible synoptics, absolutely incredible synoptics and maybe we should sit back and appreciate them for a moment?

Ahem..

Absolutely top notch ECMWF ensembles today- watch the trend... the NWP will set in place, this could become v v v interesting...

Lovely pic of the hills mate. Westerdale meteogram indicative of a 5c high, and a slow descent afterwards, so maybe some remnants of the hill snow overnight, but temps are above zero until 03z tomorrow morning.

Expected to touch 7c on the hi-res ECMWF meteogram today- and some light snow tomorrow as temps fall back sub-zero. Today could be the warmest day of the week, and it's on snow cover!

A good amount of wet snow, turning to sleet, back to snow last night- about 1cm at 0900, most melted as temperatures rise above zero today.

Olympic sailors International sailing competition support both for competitors and fans (Transat, Ostar, British Olympic Sailing teams, Gypsy Moth IV etc) F1 racing teams (Midland F1) World rally teams (BP-FORD World Rally Team) Electricity grids Wind farms Nuclear Power plants Offshore research facilities European Space Agency Midas project Building Industry Pilots Rescue and Lifeboat organisations Ferry companies Fishermen Paragliders Windsurfers Found this new 'precision' model that caters for these above ^, so I guessed it wouldn't be that bad? Fairly unstable N flow at 06z Wednesday, sub zero temps across much of northern england and scotland- plenty of snow shrs to be had, especially on eastern and northern coasts

WRF-ARW higher res with a strong snow signal for north and east on Thursday- SW-NE upper low complex could lead to some caa into north sea as well-

A little bit of snow, about 1cm on all surfaces- a nice covering. 0.4c.

I don't think Sheffield was predicted any snow?

Roughly just 0.5cm lying atm, dew point still at -2.0c but this is where 950hPa temps and surface temps come into it.

Pretty much moderate snow now- lying on all surfaces; very quick accu; -2.0c dew point. Rain/sleet to arrive around 2am it seems so hopefully a bit more and a good amount of snow beforehand.

Now moderate snow and beginning to settle. Snow on December 1 and December 3 now.

Light-moderate snow in NE38, -2.0c dew point.

Pretty constant -1.0c with -2.4c dew point; ECMWF meteograms going for mostly rain with some wet snow round here so no accumulations likely. Bloody cold though!

Hi-res ECMWF predicting snow for the most part, though it will be wet and sleety. Expect it to turn to rain through the night, but some light snow again before dawn.

The Kirkcaldy meteogram predicts sleet before 3am, while most if not all precip is snow afterwards- which is bizarre, but the majority of the precip does occur before 3am. The shaded/striped precip is snow, whilst the all-blue precip is rain.