Isolated Frost

Along with having -4c 850s into Scotland by t192- the EC delivers a pretty big snow event at D10 on it's op, -6c uppers in the east on this chart- Quite similar solutions apart from wrt jet energy.. the EC solution is not as organised and therefore wintry for our region as yesterdays 12z suite- though that suite was magnificent and an outlier within the EC ENS. Another interesting wk to come, if the jet energy dives a la EC, this is one to keep an eye on.

Just had a look at the Points West forecast... wow! Maybe one day we will get half as good as that at Look North, that is just how it is meant to be! How on earth are there such massive regional differences in terms of detail? BBC should sort that one out.

An undercut is a low pressure system that goes 'under' a block of high pressure. Usually it means that an atlantic low pressure system goes beneath a cold high pressure system in Siberia/Scandinavia. This 'undercut' means the UK is on top of the low pressure system, and usually in the colder continental air

Trigger low to set it off has gone? A bit too under-progressive?

Indeed- and now on nw extra, the 10hpa scale has moved up to 10c so I'm sure we'll be able to see just as well on our residency how the breakdown is going to go down!

Difference between the EC Op 168 and the EC ENS 168- less flat low around newfoundland, and accordingly, more of a link up of atlantic heights- low digs SE rather than being static

Note the EC control is milder than the majority of the members, so isn't exactly mean territory- though the Op is more anomolous in terms of cold-

Not as optimistic is the EC ENS but trending more positively then previous- the d8 prediction the pick of the lot. note- the sub 0c line stays in Scotland for the ENTIRETY of the run... mild for everyone? nope!

I think it's been noted before.. but 12c at 10hpa from 372- quite a notable event upcoming if we can persist with the upcoming nwp predictions. Note though that the main vortex energy moves into Greenland, which would be rather more unconductive towards cold around NW Europe- but the prominent signal is for a major warming D11 onwards- let the further details be known closer to the event Main stronghold of the vortex at the lower strat at D10 towards Novaya Zemlya- in line w/ the EC D10 output- Note the american meridionality and canadian blocking high in terms of moving forward- the vortex event over n greenland does not look particularly prominent and the movement of such a vortex may even mean little if the warming can penetrate enough post D15- from a enthusiastic pov, analysing the strat is really interesting this season.. homework can take the back seat

messy... but a pretty big snow event around much of the nation. ensembles will clarify whether this is a new supported trend... indeed here we go again after the 12z suite is notably positive in comparison to recent nwp output

-4c uppers in a straight east/south-east flow like shown on the ECMWF would (hypothetically) be conductive to sleet and snow, and the surface temps would be very, very cold.. 950hPa temps and thicknesses are more important in situations dominated polar continental airflows- 216 is of course pretty much superb, -8c uppers well inland in north and east, plenty of precip to be had- if the likelyhood is even very low.. 240 introduces the shortwave to finish the flow haha

Sir...

-6c uppers into NE Scotland- vvvvvery cold in the east, the secondary low comes into place now, associated height rises nr Greenland and a surface cold ridge over ne canada w/ the cold energy transferal- I've seen enough to be highly encouraged going up to D7 on this run- the rest will be some fun of course to see a potential solution.. ECM ENS support later more indicative of the strength of this suite

Very cold at the surface I'm sure, ECM signal at 144 is for a mean trough parked to the W but the block exerts further influence on top of it- where will the Newfoundland situ be at 168?? Very encouraging, the 12z suite for ECMWF says about 2-3 milder than average days (around average in the far north)- and a turn back.

Don't have my ws with me... but it's bloomin' cold out there!

-3c, very calm, with some scattered clouds in a mostly clear sky.

I can't see an active atlantic, I can't see persistant low heights to the north and a cooling stratosphere, I can't see strong heights to the south-east, I can't see very mild (2-3c above average) temps anywhere around the UK but I can see complete grim on the forums! I think some have had their levels set too high over the last 3 winters... temperatures are expected to be near average for a week or so and we are only 2 weeks into winter, chill! We ain't going to get persistent cold This isn't your typical 'zonal' spell, nor 'mild'. It will be warmer than recent and chances of snowfall are much lower- Weather enthusiasts, not just snow.. we'll get lots of different weather types and we should appreciate them instead of bemoaning some change

Indeed- especially with upper air temps of -1c or thereabouts- I was referring to slp to 500hPa, not 500-1000 thicknesses

Stormy and wet- especially in Scotland and Northern Ireland- with temps close to the seasonal average, and the chance of wintriness in sub-516 air in the highland peaks for Saturday evening.

Hello! Was in Ieper, nr Kortijk a few days ago and it was very cold indeed, a bit of snow last Thursday as well.

Ahhhh my pretty... soon you will be back with me. Soon.

ECM post D3 seems to indicate a pretty reliable flow of cyclonic S/SE winds with temperatures near or slightly above the average, especially in the south and east, with temperatures at times below average in the north, especially Scotland. Precipitation will most likely be above average, perhaps exceptionally so in the south and west, with low pressure systems nearby. In all, it's a pretty stable and promising run- the one major note being that the Azores high fails to extend its ridge northwards and thus the combination of PFJ and STJ are pretty much in full-force, a pretty interesting phenomena... Nothing suggests that it will turn exceptionally mild, nor cold, over the next 8 days- afterwards the signal for retrogression bears strong prominence- though the flat jet shape and mean trough towards the atlantic is stable, and the russian block is a touch too far E to affect us (though scandinavia is continuously affected by a very cold SE/S flow, with -8c uppers into much of the region for the entire run, -12c at times

A lot of (annoying) talk belittling the effects of the stratosphere and further teleconnections- purely because persistent and long-lasting cold isn't affecting all parts of the UK. Not only is the warming events prior to now and the GWO signal merely a precursor to the upcoming event- but the extent of northern blocking has been pretty incredible so far. I think that it's pretty cold and we should all look at the wider picture !

Goody! My neck is still sore after the kamikaze walk to school at 8am

Today's ECM det (top) pushes the -6c 850 line from Aberdeen (yesterday's; bottom) to Liverpool at 12z Thursday- encouraging signs for a more wintry breakdown across high ground and some lower ground areas on Thursday and Friday.