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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY SEP 21ST 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a Westerly flow veering NW tomorrow behind a showery trough moving SE tonight.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughing back down over the UK over the next day or so where it continues to lie through the first few days of this week. the trend is then for the flow to move to a position NW of the UK with the worst of the Low pressure based weather likely to be. The flow becomes very variable and unclear in location late in the period.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure in control over the working days of this week as one centre drifts SE down the North Sea over the first few days of the week and then another crosses East to the North of Scotland soon after midweek with rain and showers for all of the UK at times. By next weekend High pressure is shown to build across the UK from the SW and then maintains a strong ridge across the UK for much of the time thereafter with fine weather but with some mist and fog patches night and morning. The weather is then shown to turn more changeable again later as the High recedes away to the East and Atlantic fronts make inroads across the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar to the operational through much of the period though the methodology of returning unsettled weather across the UK in Week 2 is somewhat different in detail but not on theme as rather more changeable weather develops later but still with plenty of dry and bright weather around too.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning still show a lot of variation between members on the conditions likely to lie across the UK in 14 days time with the confusion remaining on how and what influence High pressure from the Azores affects the UK at that time with a slight bias towards drier conditions towards the South and East while more unsettled conditions are more likely towards the North.
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure building across the UK next weekend with a centre moving NE out into the North Sea by next Sunday with a continental airflow over the South and light winds elsewhere. There should be plenty of dry and fine weather with overnight mist and fog once the working week's unsettled weather dissolves away by the weekend.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a changeable week with rain at times as Low pressure and troughs continue to move East across the UK from the West right up to next weekend. The improvements forecast for then are just coming into view on the 120hr chart as pressure is shown to be building from the SW.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120
GEM GEM this morning is somewhat less favourable as the rise in pressure at the weekend is restricted more towards the South and East of Britain where a dry spell is likely whereas the North and NW stay breezy under SW winds and rain at times as troughs brush by. This more unsettled and eventually windy cyclonic weather is then shown to advance to all of the UK through the course of next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM too is also reluctant to bring anything more than a ridge across the UK next weekend with a dry and bright period for a time before Atlantic Low pressure and troughs return East across all areas again soon after the start of next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM this morning is rock solid in delivering better weather across the UK from next weekend as it continues to show rising pressure from Friday culminating in a belt of High pressure stretching across the UK next week with fine and pleasantly warm weather by day once the mist and overnight fog which could be quite extensive at times slowly clears each day.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure stretched across the UK with almost universal support for fine and dry early Autumn weather with fine warm days and cool misty nights.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models (with the exception of GEM and NAVGEM show a lengthy period of fine and settled weather across the UK from next weekend.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 86.5 pts over UKMO at 86.3 pts then GFS at 84.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.2 pts over GFS's 51.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.8 pts to 33.5 pts from GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
MY THOUGHTS The models continue to point towards a better period of weather which may last longer than a few days starting towards this coming weekend. In the meantime we have another 3-4 days when Low pressure to the North and NE affects the UK with showers or rain at times and cool West or NW winds. By Friday pressure then rises steadily and strongly from the SW and by the end of the weekend perhaps with the exception of the far North and NW all places should have become dry and fine. The High then settled across the UK as well as much of NW Europe next week which indicates that this spell could last a fair while characterized by some quite warm and sunny days or afternoons once the inevitable Autumn mist and fog patches have cleared which could become quite problematic for travel at times. It should be noted that all this is not quite set in stone yet as GEM and NAVGEM are less supportive at this stage but all the main players both sides of the Atlantic do give us a week of decent weather before there are any signs of a push from the Atlantic. So in a nutshell the weather will improve from the weekend for all with plenty of dry and quiet weather and while it should become warm by day this will be all dependant on how quickly morning mist and fogs evaporate each day on what will probably be chilly nights.
WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif
The accolade for the worst chart of the day goes to GEM at 228hrs this morning as it forgets about High pressure almost as soon as it arrives with a deep Low running close to Southern England and delivering wet and windy weather to these areas as a result.
BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
For the best chart I have gone for the Day 10 chart from ECM which shows a large belt of High pressure across the UK at that time with centres to the East and West ensuring the door is closed on Atlantic fronts and depressions to affect the UK anytime soon from that time.
Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 22nd 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY
THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST
POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON
SUNDAY SEP 20TH 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure will move away SE away from the UK later today as a Low pressure trough moves East across the UK later tonight and tomorrow followed by a showery Westerly flow.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less unsettled next week with longer drier spells with most rainfall likely in the form of scattered showers.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughing back down over the UK over the next day or so where it blows in a trough like fashion around the UK for much of the working week. It then migrates back to a more Northerly latitude across Northern Britain where it remains quite strong for a while blowing West to East before becoming much more broken and ill defined later in the second week.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure in control over the working days of this week as one centre drifts SE down the North Sea over the early days of the week and then another crosses East to the North of Scotland soon after midweek with rain and showers for all of the UK at times. By next weekend a SE/NW split in the weather develops as High pressure over Europe spreads dry and mild conditions across the South and East while the North and West continue to see some rain at times. This pattern sticks around for a while before High pressure moves East over Europe and more unsettled weather arrives from the SW later with more unsettled conditions for all to end the period.
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar to the operational through much of the period though the methodology of returning unsettled weather across the UK in Week 2 is via an ex tropical storm which could bring some temporarily heavy rainfall across the South as it moves it's way East across England and Wales towards the end of the period.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning still show a lot of variation between members on the conditions likely to lie across the UK in 14 days time with the confusion remaining on how and what influence High pressure from the Azores affects the UK at that time with a slight bias towards drier conditions towards the South and East while more unsettled conditions are more likely towards the North.
UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure slipping SE across the UK at the start of this week and then a re-run as a new Low passes east to the North of Scotland with a week of rain and showers at times with a drier period over Wednesday. Then a NW/SE split develops in time for next weekend with the South and East becoming dry and fine under a ridge while the North and NW see cloudier and breezier conditions under SW winds and some rain at times.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a changeable week with rain at times as Low pressure and troughs continue to move east across the UK from the West right up to next weekend.
GEM GEM too shows an unsettled week under West or NW winds with rain and showers at times before a more SE/NW split develops next weekend as pressure rises over Europe and sets up a SW flow across the UK with rain at times restricted mostly to the North and West for a time before moving SE to other areas late in the period.
NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar track with unsettled and changeable conditions for all this side of next weekend under west or NW winds and rather cool feeling too at times. Then over next weekend a NW/SE split develops on this run too with a dry and warmer phase next weekend over the South and East before the more unsettled conditions further to the NW spread back east across the UK under a trough a week or so from now.
ECM ECM this morning is looking good with the same theme of changeable conditions this week giving way to an improvement first in the South extending to all but Northern Scotland later in the period with fine and quiet Autumnal weather with fine and potentially warm days mixed with cool and foggy nights. Only the far North of Scotland look like seeing any rain by the runs end as High pressure at day 10 extends from Germany across all of England and Wales.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure well in control of the weather across much of the South and SE with any rain bearing fronts restricted to the far North and NW.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have firmed up somewhat towards a NW/SE split likely to develop in the weather following another changeable and often cool week for many.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM
The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.6 pts with UKMO at 96.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM ties with UKMO at 86.5 pts each then GFS at 84.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.0 pts over GFS's 50.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 37.0 pts to 33.4 pts from GFS.MY THOUGHTS With this weekend's ridge slipping away SE from the UK over the next 24 hours we are looking at another period of West or NW winds delivering cloud and rain or showers to much of the UK again this week. It will often feel cool in the blustery West winds but in between the rain there will be a fair amount of dry weather too especially in the South on Wednesday. Then things start to look more straightforward from the start of next week as it's looking more and more likely that we will be looking at a NW/SE split in the weather for a while at least with High pressure building close to SE Britain and warding off any influence from the Atlantic towards the far North and NW. It's then a matter of how long this pattern remains before the Atlantic forces back and this remains unclear this morning with some output indicating that some progress towards this outcome will occur quite quickly while others keep any inroads on a much slower timescale. ECM offers the best scenario again this morning and this is backed up quite nicely with it's recent ensemble data with High pressure becoming a dominant player in the UK weather for quite a while, extending fine and settled weather to all but Northern Scotland for some considerable while. While there is growing confidence towards a quiet spell of weather for much of the UK from next weekend with warm and sunny days in the South mist and fog will be an issue by night and morning as well as chilly nights and the North may take a long while to join in these conditions if at all. We also have to be mindful of a lot of tropical air and depressions floating about in the Western Atlantic at times and the movement and track of these as they enter the Jet stream could have ramifications on the synoptic patterns over NW Europe so while in themselves they don't look like affecting the UK much if at all going by this morning's output they could change a pattern quite quickly if they don't behave as predicted and we will have to watch for that at least. Nevertheless, having said that there is nothing alarmist in weather terms over the UK in the next few weeks with just some rain at times this week and the possibility of a lot of benign and anticyclonic style Autumn weather for many next week, at least for a while.
WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
The accolade for the worst chart of the day goes to the GFS Control Run at T+324hrs this morning as it highlights what can happen to ex tropical storms as they engage the Atlantic Jet stream as on this example it brings the remains of it across the heart of England and Wales in the following 24 hours with extra heavy rainfall and wind as a result of the warm moist air contained within it.
BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
For the best chart I have gone for the Day 9 chart from ECM which shows a large and blocking anticyclone across and just to the east of the UK bringing warm (for the time of year) air across most of the UK with very pleasant weather by day but mist and fog by night. these blocking Highs can be slow to give way so let's hope ECM can continue this theme as we draw nearer the time.
Next update from 09:00 Monday Sep 21st 2015
http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY
THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST
POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON
FRIDAY SEP 18TH 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack and showery North-westerly airflow will be replaced by a ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK tomorrow.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less unsettled next week with longer drier spells with most rainfall likely in the form of scattered showers.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridging across the UK ahead of the flow turning South across Western Britain early next week. While the flow then becomes disorientated and variable thereafter and often to the North of the UK the undulating nature of the flow allows cut off Low pressure to the South of the UK on occasion with their own secondary flow.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a ridge of High pressure becoming replaced by Low pressure early next week as it trundles SE across the UK. Things then gradually improve from the NW later next week and High pressure takes control from thereon eventually settling to the North of the UK and setting up a strong Easterly flow across the UK with fine weather in the North but possibly more unsettled across the South.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar to the operational through Week 1 but couldn't be different through week 2 with High pressure much further South across Southern Britain to begin with and then Low pressure moving in across the UK from the NW later with rain and showers in cool conditions for all at the end of the period.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning still show no set pattern having supremacy in two weeks time although High pressure in one shape or another holds the most likely evolution. 35% of members opt for something much more changeable and Autumnal.
UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure slipping SE across the UK at the start of the new week with showers or outbreaks of rain for many, reluctant to clear from the East and South even by Thursday.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a ridge of High pressure crossing over the UK over the weekend with Low pressure following SE behind it to affect all of the UK early next week with rain and showers at times under cyclonic conditions.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.
GEM GEM too shows the ridge at the weekend being replaced by a return to Low pressure moving SE across the UK next week. This hangs about for some time so maintaining rain and showers for all before a slow recovery in conditions moves slowly north across the UK as pressure builds, ending the run mostly dry and settled with a rather warm ESE flow developing across the South at the end of the period.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a similar theme with Low pressure across the UK next week slowly giving way later to a SW flow for all with unsettled weather becoming more pronounced towards the NW whereas the South and East should become somewhat drier by next weekend.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.
ECM ECM this morning is quite poor showing the same Low pressure based conditions next week as it moves SE across the UK with rain and showers for all. the later stages of the run sets up a mobile pattern with another deep Low crossing the UK late next weekend with gales in places.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a ridge extending SW from High pressure over Scandinavia with probably fine conditions for much of the UK but with SW winds and more unsettled weather probable towards the NW.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are still undecided on whether next week's slip back under Low pressure is just a short blip before fine and settled weather returns to most of the UK thereafter or not.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM
The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.6 pts with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM ties with UKMO at 86.4 pts each then GFS at 84.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.2 pts over GFS's 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.9 pts to 33.4 pts from GFS.http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
MY THOUGHTS There remains much doubt on the eventual course of weather over the UK behind the almost inevitable shift back under Low pressure across the UK early next week which all models now support. So after a fine weekend with some warm sunshine but chilly nights rain followed by a very showery period looks like becoming established next week with England and Wales likely to see these conditions last longest before High pressure possibly ridges back in across the North later. Things then become much more unclear as we have a variety of options on the table ranging from a NW/SE split in the weather with rain more confined to NW Britain than elsewhere to High pressure building strongly to the North of the UK and setting up a strong Easterly flow across England and Wales in the second week. While this wind may still be relatively warm at this time of year any cloud cover and the influence of Low pressure possibly easing up from the South could make for cool feeling conditions with rain in the far South possible. My own feeling are that more of a NW/SE split is likely with unsettled conditions more likely to affect the NW most and while that doesn't discount some rain elsewhere too the main focus of weather towards the SE should be more dry than wet conditions. While the pressure patterns across the UK are far from ideal there are no immediate concerns from severe gales and excessively heavy rain and what is more notable to me is the desire to build pressure to very high levels at Northern latitudes by some output which could have big implications if this theme and trend continues to be shown and later evolve across the UK during the Winter months.
BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0
The accolade for the best chart of the day today goes to the GFS Control Run chart at 240hrs which shows the Azores High ridging NE towards and over the UK with the prospect of fine and settled weather for all of Southern Britain and much of the North too for a time.
WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif
For the worst chart I have gone for the Day 9 chart from ECM who delivers an awful chart at day 9 with a deep low moving east across the UK with wind and rain for all. Of note is an example of how diverse the models are at a latter range today with the best and worst charts just 24 hours apart.
Next update from 09:00 Sunday Sep 20th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 17TH 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack and showery Westerly airflow will cover the UK today and tomorrow with a ridge of High pressure approaching the West of the UK later tomorrow.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less unsettled next week with longer drier spells with most rainfall likely in the form of scattered showers.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a ridge of High pressure approaching Western Britain over the coming days changing the orientation of the Jet Stream from South of the UK to the North for a while.Then a new trough slips it back South across the UK for a time but overall though details are sketchy the flow looks like remaining more to the North of the UK over week 2 probably enhancing the theme of dry weather across the South of the UK at least.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a ridge of High pressure settling things down across the UK at this weekend before a trough returns cloud and some rain for a time early next week. This is then shown to be the precursor to a more North/South split in the weather with the North seeing breezy and changeable weather next week while the South becomes largely dry and fine under a ridge from the SW. This ridge is then shown to intensify exerting it's influence to all other areas with fine and dry weather with mist and fog at night. Then the theme at the end of the run is to push this ridge to the East of the UK where it draws some rather warm air NW over the UK while maintaining fine and dry weather for most.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is nothink like as High pressure based as the operational bringing down Low pressure across the UK next week where it hangs on across the South for quite a while gradually being reinforced from the Atlantic by other weakish Low pressure ensuring that after a dry weekend the rest of the run looks changeable with some dry and bright weather mixed with cloudier and more unsettled periods with rain or showers at times, probably most enhanced towards the South than elsewhere
.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show no set pattern likely by two weeks with equal options shown between Low pressure based conditions with showers or rain and rather drier weather under higher pressure.
UKMO UKMO today shows a High pressure ridge at the weekend collapsing as shallow Low pressure slips SE across the UK in the first days of next week. After a dry weekend some rain on a trough will introduce a showery period next week but with light winds and some sunshine in between daytime conditions shouldn't feel too bad with mist and fog though a probability under any clearing skies after dark.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex troughs slipping down across the UK on the Western flank of yesterdays depression introducing a simplified weather pattern of a ridge moving across the UK from the West with a dry and fine weekend before further troughs approach the West by Monday.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120
GEM GEM today shows a fine weekend as a ridge moves across from the West. This is shown to collapse early next week as Low pressure sinks SE across the UK with some rain or showers for all. Later in the week the Low responsible is reluctant to leave our near continental neighbours and continues to exert a showery influence to the South and East with the best weather likely over Scotland and Northern Ireland as another ridge builds in.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the weekend ridge giving way to a trough early next week with some rain for all before another ridge links across Central parts of the UK with the South slowly becoming dry and fine while fronts on Westerly winds over the far North bring the risk of rain at times here later next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM this morning follows the theme of Low pressure moving SE across the UK early next week with two or three days of changeable conditions with some rain or showers for most before a trend for things to quieten down slowly later in the period culminating in a very pleasant picture by Day 10 as High pressure builds across England and Wales with dry and fine early Autumn conditions for many with the whole of the UK likely to be dry at that stage.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates to me that there is a good chance of High pressure lying close to England and Wales with a lot of fine and dry early Autumn weather here while any fronts from off the Atlantic become restricted to affecting the far North only by Day 10.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are still undecided on whether next week's slip back under Low pressure is just a short blip before fine and settled weather returns to most of the UK thereafter or not.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.5 pts with UKMO at 96.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM is king at 86.3 pts followed by UKMO at 86.2 and GFS at 84.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 51.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.0 pts to 33.5 pts from GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
MY THOUGHTS There are tentative signs that the UK may come more under the influence of High pressure later next week. It is yet to be decided in what shape or form that may take as only ECM offers a UK based anticyclone across our shores and this is shown at Day 10 so a lot of scope for error in that chart. The genral theme though is slowly straightening out as yesterday's Low has now made it's exit East and NE away from the UK. A strong ridge looks like producing a decent weekend for most if not all as the last of the coming few day's of showers finally clear the East late tomorrow. It then looks like 48hrs of decent fine and settled early Autumn weather with some chilly and misty nights is likely before a trough moves in from the West late Sunday and more significantly on Monday. This then brings rain followed by a scattering of showers as weakish Low pressure slips SE across the UK towards NW Europe. Once arriving there some output shows that it gets held up later next week and continues to affect the South and East with further showers while other output shows it clearing away and the South coming under a ridge while the North becomes at greatest risk of a little rain from troughs crossing close by to the North. Whichever way the dice falls High pressure should play some sort of role in what happens through Week 2. I particularly like the ECM evolutions as it shows a full scale move towards High pressure sitting across the UK in the second week and this is largely backed up by it's ensembles. It's harder to see where UKMO is heading but my betting would be similar to ECM. GFS shows a decent operational while the control is less favourable with the clusters a complete mess this morning so not much useful guidance there. So putting all this together while I cannot see a prolonged dry spell UK wide, certainly not in the short term I think with time many places will see much more dry weather than wet and some pleasant sunshine by day could lead to chilly and very misty nights at times, slow to clear in the morning's draggng the overall mean temperature down to probably just below the seasonal average for mid to late September. Still with no major atlantic storms looking likely across the UK over the next two weeks I think most perople will accept this morning's output with open arms because it could be an awful lot worse.
BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
The best chart of the day today goes to ECM with a peach of a 240hr chart showing High pressure in excess of 1030mbs lying across England and Wales with fine and dry early Autumn weather for most if not all of the UK.
WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0
For the worst chart I have gone for the Day 15 chart from the GFS Control run which illustrates aLow mobving in across the UK from the West bringing rain and showers for all. What's significant with this chart is that pressure is High across the Arctic stretching from Scandinavia to Greenland pushing all rain bearing Atlantic Lows and fronts on a collision course with the UK. Thankfully it is 15 days away and unlikely to verify.
Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 18th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 16TH 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A complex Low pressure area will move from Biscay to SE England and away over the North Sea tomorrow.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less unsettled next week with longer drier spells with most rainfall likely over the North.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow well to the South of the UK blowing strongly West to East for the next few days before it ridges North around the UK at the weekend in association with a ridge crossing East over the UK. The flow then is shown to blow NW to SE over the UK next week before positioning and flow thereafter becomes hard to define.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled coming few days as complex Low pressure areas move across England and away to the NE late in the week. This then allows a NW flow behind the Lows to be followed by a ridge of High pressure crossing East at the weekend. Then next week Low pressure slips SE across the UK with a period of unsettled weather once more. towards the end of the run pressure being High over Europe extends a strong ridge across the UK from the East.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning shows quite dry and settled weather becoming established across parts of the UK from the start of next week. In fact the weekend too will be dry for many before a weakening band of rain crosses East late on Sunday and Monday. Pressure then builds strongly from the South with a North/South split in the weather later next week with the best conditions across the South which extends to all areas later as an intense High pressure lies across the UK over the second half of the run.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have turned High pressure based across much of the UK in 14 days time with 70% showing High pressure biased conditions over 30% which show something more Low pressure based.
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure at the weekend moving away East early next week as a broad trough is shown to return more unsettled weather with some rain to all areas early next week
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex areas of Low pressure moving away NE over the coming days taking it's showery weather with it to give a dry weekend for many under a strong ridge. This edges away East by the end of the 120hr period as rain bearing fronts approach from the West.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120
GEM GEM today shows a High pressure ridge developing at the weekend as a ridge pushes across from the West. As this moves away East troughs will move in from the West with some rain for many for a time before a North/South split slowly develops later next week as High pressure lies not far to the SW while the North stays under Westerly winds and occasional rain.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the improvements at the weekend being shunted away east early next week as a weakening trough crosses east with some rain in places. this then looks like setting up a North/South divide in conditions for the end of next week with the best conditions over the South.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM this morning is not as pretty as some of the other output in the longer term and while it shows the ridge at the weekend bringing fine and dry conditions for many for a time cloud and rain on troughs moving in from the West early next week slides SE and keeps a cool feed of air across the South and East with further showers while the North becomes better for a time before towards the end of the run shows Atlantic Westerlies returning to all areas with rain at times.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates to me that there is a good chance of a North/South split in the weather with the best weather in the South.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are generally showing signs of leaning towards a fair amount of High pressure based weather across the UK from the middle of next week.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.4 pts to UKMO's 99.3 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.2 pts with UKMO at 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.9pts followed by ECM at 85.4 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.0 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
MY THOUGHTS Things look like improving across the UK next week as more output shows High pressure based conditions developing across the UK next week rather than Low. Nevertheless there is still some stubborn resistance about bringing universal support for this theory, none more so than the ECM operational run which generally shows changeable conditions throughout next week with rain at times. On the contrary the GFS Operational is a peach this morning as intense High pressure lying across the UK later in the run illustrates fine and settled Autumn conditions for all. However, before all this happens we still have to see the back of the current complexities which are still giving forecasters a headache as to how much rain, wind and to what extent all this occurs within the next 24 hours. It looks strongly to me as if many areas look like escaping unscathed from the feature moving NE over the SE late today. Yes there will be some heavy and thundery downpours in the SE corner but the area looks like restricted much further to the East and SE rather than elsewhere with the whole lot swept away to the NE quite quickly tonight. It all illustrates how fragile and complex the weather patterns are currently which could complicate and affect the predictions that currently exist for next week so caution should be urged on events next week until the weekend.
BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=300&mode=0&carte=0
The best chart of the day today goes to the GFS Control Run at 300hrs which shows an intense High pressure near Scotland with fine and settled weather for all across the UK.
WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
For the worst chart I have also gone for the here and now using the midnight today chart from GFS showing deep and complex Low pressure to the South and over the UK leading to an unsettled 24-36hrs across the UK. It also indicates a strong improvement likely over the current weather over the coming two weeks as nothing in the output thereafter is as bad as this chart over the two week period.
Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 17th 2015
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Running very late today so only have time to give you a link to my website for my daily report. You can find it here:-
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY
THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST
POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON
Tuesday 15th September
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A complex Low pressure area will move away from NE England through today but followed by a new complex Low pressure to the South of the UK tomorrow with troughs moving NW over England and Wales.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times though perhaps drier for a time especially in the South early next week.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow well to the South of the UK blowing strongly West to East for the next few days before it ridges North around the UK at the weekend in association with a ridge crossing East over the UK. The flow then is shown to blow NW to SE over the UK next week before breaking up and becoming less clear on positioning through Week 2 though generally further North than currently.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled coming few days as complex Low pressure areas move across England and away to the NE late in the week. This then allows a NW flow behind the Lows to be followed by a ridge of High pressure crossing East at the weekend. Then next week Low pressure slips SE across the UK with a slow build of pressure to the West and then NW of the UK later in week 2 to gradually spread more benign and drier Autumnal conditions across the UK at the end of the period.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning shows quite similar sequences to events over the coming week as the operational run with the current wet and windy weather clearing at the weekend to a more NW flow with a little rain in the North and East though in Week 2 this run is much more anticyclonic based across all areas as a High pressure cell is shown to build across the UK and away to the East late in the period leaving a breakdown just entering the SW at day 15.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are again all over the place with various scenarios very different shown for the UK in 14 days time. While 35% most favour a slight bias towards High pressure lying across the UK the other 65% show different options of more unsettled conditions across the UK under Low pressure in one guise or another.
UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure well in control of the UK weather through the rest of the week as it moves NE from Southern England and away to the NE by the weekend bringing rain or showers at times with strong winds too in the SE. A ridge is shown to cross East over the UK at the weekend giving 24-48hrs of fine weather before anew trough is shown to move in from the West late Sunday and into Monday.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex areas of Low pressure moving North-east into the South of the UK tomorrow and then continue on a NE'ly track with a complex array of troughs bringing two or three days more yet of rain and showers to all before a weak ridge of High pressure crosses the UK from the West at the weekend.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.
GEM GEM today shows very unsettled and windy weather for the rest of this week with rain and wind at times before an improvement is shown for the weekend as a ridge of High pressure crosses East over the UK. In the days that follow and into next week pressure falls again over the UK with a depression shown to become slow moving across the UK returning unsettled weather with rain at times for all areas through most of next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows wet and windy conditions at times too throughout the remainder of the week too as rain then showers around complex Low pressure moving NE from Southern England and Scandinavia between now and the weekend. Then after a ridge of High pressure at the weekend brings drier and brighter weather a westerly flow bringing a North/South split in the weather looks likely next week with rain at times and drier conditions towards the South and East.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.
ECM ECM this morning is rather different to the rest of the output as once this weeks well agreed upon sequence of events from all models ends ECM goes off on it's own course of building High pressure across the UK from Sunday and then being split SW and NE through next week leaving the UK under a tenuous ridge for most of next week. So a lot of dry and bright weather next week but with some troughs to the SE and NW could become entangled within the slack pressure gradient across the UK delivering a lot of cloud and a little rain at times.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night still shows enough influence from Low pressure to the NW of the UK to bring at least some rain in the SW flow across the UK with the best weather towards the SE.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are generally unchanged from yesterday in the general message of wet and windy weather this week followed by improvements at the weekend, but for how long is still not well agreed upon.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM
The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.4 pts to UKMO's 99.3 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.2 pts with UKMO at 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.9pts followed by ECM at 85.4 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.0 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS.http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
MY THOUGHTS The main talking point of the output this morning for model watchers is where we go after this weeks very unsettled weather has cleared away at the weekend. In the here and now we still have three days of potentially wet and very windy weather to come though the earlier in the week fears of disruption to high winds has receded somewhat as the Low tomorrow looks like taking a more Easterly track to the South of the UK. Nevertheless with some warm tropical air in this feature heavy rain remains a likely problem for southern and Eastern Britain before several days of a sunshine and shower mix occurs through Thursday and Friday. Then the well forecasted ridge at the weekend still looks likely to deliver an acceptable weekend for many before a trough knocks on the door of Northern and Western Britain by the end of the weekend. It's from that point on that the models diverge between whether High pressure becomes more dominant such as ECM illustrates or a more changeable and Low pressure based theme develops again early next week, shown by UKMO, GFS, NAVGEM and GEM in particular. Which is right would seem fairly straightforward given that only ECM and GFS long term offers much support for High pressure based weather across the UK but I feel it is too early to call still. As I said yesterday until tomorrow's feature is cleared up and out of the way to the NE at the weekend I feel the path of where we move next week weather-wise is yet to be determined so as ever I feel more runs are needed.
BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif
In selecting the best Chart of the Day I have opted for an FI chart at 336hrs from GFS who shows a large High near to the NW of the UK with fine weather for all away from the chilly North breeze that would affect the East coast.
WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.gif
For the worst chart I have also gone for GFS which at only T+36hrs has a good chance of verifying delivering the worst weather of the coming few weeks with potentially heavy rain and potential gales across England and Wales tomorrow.
Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 16th 2015
http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON
MONDAY SEP 14TH 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A complex Low pressure area currently over the SW of England will move slowly NE across the Midlands and away to the NE tomorrow. Gale or severe gale force Westerly winds will move across Southern England later today and tonight easing tomorrow.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times though perhaps drier for a time especially in the South early next week.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow well to the South of the UK blowing strongly West to East for much of the working week before moving North of the UK towards the weekend. Thereafter it moves back South again across the UK for a time before finally resting much further North than recently in response to High pressure near the UK.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled week to come with several Low pressure areas making for very wet conditions at times with heavy rain and gale or even severe gale force wind gusts at time, especially over the South. Later in the week Low pressure is shown to move away to the NE as a High pressure ridge moves across from the West. Thereafter the South and West become dry and bright under a West or NW flow while the North and East see further troughs move SE for a time with occasional rain. Then at the end of the period High pressure takes control across all of the UK with fine and sunny weather but chilly and probably foggy nights too.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar in sequence to the events listed above from the operational model. The main difference being that next week sees more in the way of changeable conditions for all under a NW flow as the High to the SW makes less inroads into UK airspace maintaining a cool NW drift down across the UK throughout next week.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are all over the place with various scenarios very different shown for the UK in 14 days time. While 40% most favour a slight bias towards slack Low pressure across the UK between High to the East and West a fair amount show something rather better under High pressure in the vicinity of the UK.
UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure well in control of the UK weather throughout this week with heavy rain and showers mixed with occasional gales likely for many at times. It does show better conditions moving across the UK next weekend though as a ridge of High pressure builds across the UK from the South.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex areas of Low pressure moving North into the South of the UK where they become slow moving before being reinforced by further centres following a similar track meaning very unsettled and possibly very windy weather for the UK especially over the SW today and SE midweek.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120
GEM GEM today shows very unsettled and windy weather this week with rain and wind at times before an improvement is shown for the weekend as a risge of High pressure crosses East over the UK. In the days that follow and into next week a rather slack pressure gradient develops across the UK with some rain about as weak disturbances aloft look likely to give rise to a lot of cloud even in the drier periods between the inevitable outbreaks of rain.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows wet and windy conditions at times too throughout this week before a weak ridge crosses East over the UK at the weekend promising a drier and brighter interlude. It isn't long for the output shows a return to more changeable conditions as fronts move back in across the UK from the West or NW next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM this morning also looks very unsettled through the working week with rain, gales and sunshine all possible as deep Low pressure areas cross the South at times. Then at the weekend pressure is shown to rise markedly with dry and fine weather developing for many next weekend. It looks unlikely to be the start of a sustained fine spell though as pressure falls and becomes relatively slack over the UK and Western Europe with rain at times from slow moving frontal systems before perhaps becoming rather drier from the NW later next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night has leaned back towards a more changeable Westerly pattern of weather across the UK in 10 days time with the general rule of thunb between members of the ensemble pack showing Low pressure to the North and High pressure well to the SW.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are generally unchanged from yestterday in the general message of wet and windy weather this week followed by improvements at the weekend, but for how long is not well agreed upon.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.4 pts to UKMO's 99.3 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.2 pts with UKMO at 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.9pts followed by ECM at 85.4 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.0 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
MY THOUGHTS The models have changed little over the last 24 hours with the UK still shown to be under attack over the next 4-5 days of unsettled and occasionally very windy weather with spells of sometimes heavy and thundery rain. The main focus for disruption is likely to be from wind in coastal areas today in the SW and again from midweek in an area yet to be determined as a particularly nasty and complex Low looks likely to move it's way NE over Southern England. On current thinking we look to be spared widespread gales as the Low tracks over or to the South taking the worst of the winds across Northern France though this could change. We all look likely to have a strong blow from the West on Thursday and for a time Friday too as this feature moves away NE across the North Sea with a sunshine and shower mix across the UK. Pressure is then shown to rise strongly and a ridge is well documented on all output to move across from the West over the weekend with dry and bright weather developing for many once the last of the showers exit the East early on Saturday. It's from this point on when the waters muddy with some output like GFS showing High pressure once established never leaving the SW with largely dry conditions thereafter for the remainder of the period extending to all areas by the end of the run as pressure builds strongly across all of the UK then. The general message is a bit less attractive than this though with much more reluctance to bring High pressure across the UK and with pressure having leaked away next week further changeable weather looks far more likely to affect the UK next week with occasional rain from troughs which could be slow moving under slack conditions which look to be well supported for next week from GEM and ECM and the GFS Clusters. So in a nutshell a very wet few days to come with strong winds a risk too with the best weather for once this week likely to be in the NW. Then a better period of weather at the weekend with dry and bright conditions might last into next week before a slow reversion back towards more changeable weather looks likely later but all bets are off really on where we go next week and probably won't become clear for a time yet while the position of the passage of this weeks clutch of Low pressure is finally nailed down.
BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.gif
In selecting the best Chart of the Day I had no problem in selecting this chart as it highlights a typical Autumn anticyclone nesting across the UK with light winds for all and fine and sunny early Autumn weather in luke warm conditions by day contrasting with cool and often foggy nights. It is though at T+360hrs so is unlikely to verify as shown unfortunately.
WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg721.gif
For the worst chart I have gone for the Navgems 72hr chart but in all honesty I could of gone for any of the models at that time point and they would of all looked equally bad. This chart shows a deep Low near SW England with gales or severe gales around the UK coasts but not inland. This is probably the best scenario for the Low to be held to the South and SE keeping the strongest winds as on this chart over Northern France. It is likely though that copious rainfall in the South will be a problem and we will all experience a strong blow from the West later on Thursday as the Low exits away to the NE.
Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 15th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY SEP 13TH 2015.
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure will become dominant and complex near to SW England tomorrow with cyclonic and in places strong winds across the British Isles.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times though perhaps drier for a time especially in the South early next week.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow well to the South of the UK blowing strongly West to East or SW to NE over France and Northern Spain keeping the UK on it's northern flank and under a trough. after a week or so the flow migrates North to Scotland at the same time as weakening with hints of it moving further NW still at the end of the period.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled week to come with several Low pressure areas making the UK their home over the next week, each offering their own version of wet and windy weather with some heavy and thundery rain at times, most concentrated across Southern areas with brighter more showery weather at times too. By next weekend and beyond the emphasis of wind and rain shifts towards the North as High pressure desperately tries to move into the UK from the SW. It is shown to be a painfully slow progress but by the end of the run many places look to have become dry, bright and relatively benign for a time.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is copycat of the operational for the next 5-7 days with unsettled and windy weather for all with heavy rain at times. It too then shows a brief improvement over the South in just over a weeks time before unsettled weather returns from the NW as Low pressure slips SE over Britain last to leave the SE. Pressure then rises from the North and several days of benign conditions look likely before Low pressure over the Atlantic edges troughs towards SW Britain again before the end of the period.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are very diverse as members offer conflicting messages ranging from wet and windy to calm and settled weather. The emphasis though is around 50/50 perhaps with a slight bias towards influence from Low pressure more than High pressure being dominant.
UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure well in control of the UK weather throughout this week with heavy rain and showers mixed with occasional gales likely for many at times. It does show better conditions moving across the UK next weekend though as a ridge of High pressure builds across the UK from the South.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex areas of Low pressure moving North into the South of the UK where they become slow moving before being reinforced by further centres following a similar track meaning very unsettled and often very windy weather for the UK especially over the South.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120
GEM GEM today looks very changeable through it's 10 days with very wet and windy spells across the UK over the next 5 days under complex UK based Low pressure before cool and showery NW winds ahead of a ridge lead to a better period to start the second week. It isn't long though before Low pressure, this time to the NW is shown to move SE across the UK to return unsettled and sometimes wet weather to all by midweek of the second week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows wet and windy conditions at times too throughout this week as various Low pressure areas affect the UK as they pass over. Then as with much of the other output pressure rises somewhat next weekend with a better period especially over the South under a simplified Westerly flow with some rain at times still over the North.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM this morning also looks very unsettled through the working week with rain, gales and sunshine all possible as deep low pressure areas cross the South at times. then by the weekend pressure is shown to rise markedly with dry and fine weather developing for many next weekend. How long it lasts is unclear as the model shows just a tenuous hint of a continuation of this drier spell as High pressure to the NE and SW link under conflictingly falling pressure over the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW and a generally Westerly flow across the UK with no doubt rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West with some drier spells in the South and East closer to High pressure to the SW and France.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are universally supportive of 5-6 days of often wet and windy weather followed by something of an improvement over next weekend with no clear pattern of any improvement lasting or not from then on.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.4 pts to UKMO's 99.3 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.1 pts. At 3 days ECM ties at 96.1 pts with UKMO while GFS lags behind at 95.2 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.7 pts followed by ECM at 85.2 and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.6 pts over GFS's 50.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.9 pts to 32.9 pts from GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
MY THOUGHTS Though details from run to run are sometimes quite stark in the positioning of individual Low pressure areas over the coming week the message is the same from all output in that we are all going to see several spells of rain this week mixed with brighter showery conditions. What is less clear is whether that will be accompanied by potentially gale or severe gales. The positioning of Low pressure this week will be crucial in facilitating high winds with a more Northerly aspect to their passage giving the South a real battering while if they stay over the English channel or France then high winds are more unlikely. However, whatever happens through the week there remains a strong message that things may improve for a time next weekend as all models show a ridge of High pressure at least making an unusual if temporary weekend visit to our shores with dry and benign conditions likely. Then as we look into the longer term there is also a suggestion that Low pressure will reignite up to the NW and bring back more unsettled and windy weather with rain at times in Week 2 probably most focused towards the North and West. To be honest though with so much complexity in the atmosphere from ex tropical storms over the western Atlantic details of a period of time more than a week from now become quite futile and need to be explored later this week when the worst of this week's pool of Low pressure starts to move away and a clearer indication of the extent and longevity of next weekend's improvements are better understood. So in a sentence a wet and potentially very windy period of weather at times is likely over the next 5-6 days with less volatile and more benign Autumn weather arriving next weekend and possibly lasting for a time into the second week.BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif
In selecting the best Chart of the Day today I have gone for the Day 7 Chart from ECM with a High pressure ridge having built strongly across England and Wales over the preceding 24 hours. Though in this run the ridge weakens in the following days it offers a period of relatively dry and benign typically quiet early Autumn conditions for several days across the UK.
WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif
For the worst chart I have gone for the ECM 4 day chart for midnight on Thursday although I could of picked any model's chart at that time point to highlight what is likely to be the pinnacle of the worst weather of the week. While the Low on this chart is harmlessly crossing NE over Southern England with SW gales kept across France any deviation further to the NW of this Low's movements could result in SW gales of some magnitude across Southern Britain and more especially the South Coast which could lead to some disruption. This Low is the one to watch this week as it has the potential to become newsworthy while on the other hand it may not depending in a shift of movement to that shown above by just a 100mls or so to the NW.
Next update from 09:00 Monday Sep 14th 2015
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Gibby your links aren't working again.
Sorry folks. Will try and correct the problem for Sunday's report. No report tomorrow too busy.
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY SEP 11TH 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will move away East over Scandinavia today followed by a trough of Low pressure and attendant Low pressure moving NE across the UK tonight and tomorrow.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow repositioning to the South of the UK over the coming days and remaining there for some time before moving back to the NW of the UK later next week. It then becomes more variable in strength and generally shifts back South across the UK late in the period.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled period developing from today across the UK with Low pressure becoming complex and often quite deep over and around the UK bringing spells of rain and showers to all in blustery winds. The pattern eases late next week especially across Engand and Wales where High pressure to the SE brings a warm and humid few days with little if any rain before the pattern resets to a more unsettled nationwide spell again towards the end of the run.
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is better than the operational as the unsettled spell of the coming week is superseded by better weather moving up from the SW across England and Wales later next week and persisting in one shape or form for much of the second week 2 with only weak troughs across the South delivering patchy rain at times while the North and NW maintain rather more directly unsettled conditions from off the Atlantic.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show 75% of members with Low pressure to the North in 14 days time with rain at times especially in the North and West. The remaining 25% of members show a variety of options with High pressure under control positioned over the UK.
UKMO UKMO today shows a cocktail of Low pressure areas revolving around the UK through next week in very unstable, unsettled and often windy weather with temperatures near average.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show Low pressure taking control of the weather across the UK from the start of the weekend with troughs crossing all areas from the SW and being reinforced by more early next week when windy weather is shown to become a feature at times too.
GEM GEM today looks generally unsettled throughout with Low pressure only slowly giving way to rather less windy and wet weather towards the end of the run as pressure slowly builds from the SW with a tenuous and slow link to improving conditions across the UK next weekend.
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows no improvement later next week as it maintains Low pressure over the UK through to the end of the period with showers and longer spells of rain at times for all in blustery winds from the West or SW.
ECM ECM this morning has also watered down any sign of major improvements later next week as the weeks unsettled and Low pressure based theme for all areas remains well locked into position into next weekend and to the end of the run.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW and a geerally Westerly flow across the UK with no doubt rain at times for all, heaviest towards the North and West with some drier spells in the South and East.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter. The theme of recent days to an interlude of less unsettled weather in the South and East late next week has weakened somewhat this morning.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.3 pts to UKMO's 99.2 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.1 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.0 pts with UKMO at 95.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.2 pts followed by ECM at 84.7 and GFS at 82.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.6 pts over GFS's 49.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 37.5 pts to 33.7 pts from GFS
MY THOUGHTS Things still look very unsettled within this morning's set of output. After today's final gasp of Summer it looks like a week at least of wet and and at times windy weather will affect the UK. Of course it won't be raining all the time and some drier and pleasant sunnier breaks will exist too but when the rain comes it is likely to be heavy with strong winds in places and it will no doubt give a very strong indication that we are now into Autumn. The worst of the weatehr still appears to be towards the middle of next week when strong winds and rain combine to give an unpleasant spell or two for may in between showery weather. There is still some scope for improvements towards the South and East of Britain later next week and GFS lead this camp this morning with High pressure ridging up from the SW and restricting more unsettled weather towards the NW. However, all the rest seem to have limited such improvements to more modest levels if at all with Low pressure looking to remain the dominat feature with rain or showers at times. The emphasis of this may well shift the heaviest rainfall from the SW to the NW with time though. Temperatures look like returning to near to average after today though it will still feel pleasant in any sunshine but cool in rainfall. Looking across the board the charts have a very Autumnal look about them today and with tropical storm features in the mix too over the Atlantic some quite volatile weather could occur at anytime over the coming two weeks with the grain of comfort this morning focusing on that possible if temporary improvement across Southern and Eastern Britain late next week.BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
In selecting the best Chart of the Day I have gone for the 216hr chart from GFS which illustrates our hopes of an improvement in a week or so as High pressure to the SE funnels warm and humid air up across the UK with the South and East dry and warm with the Atlantic influence at that stage away to the NW.WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
For the worst chart of the day I have gone for the GEM 120hr chart but there are other canditates too which were possible to achieve this accolade. Here we have a very deep Low to the SW with warm and moist Southerly winds ahead of it delivering copious rainfall to the South and West with possible flooding issues for a time should it verify as shown.Next update from 09:00 Sunday Sep 13th 2015
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APOLOGIES FOR THE BROKEN LINKS YESTERDAY BUT HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 10TH 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will continue to drift slowly away NE into Scandinavia over the next 24-48hrs with an ESE flow developing across the UK and Low pressure and troughs moving up into the SW later tomorrow.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridged well to the North of the UK currently but over the coming days it is scheduled to realign to the South of the UK at the same time as strengthening markedly. It then returns on a NE'ly course across the Uk for much of next week before slackening somewhat through Week 2 for a time but the axis of it never moving far enough away to the NW to eliminate the UK being under the influence of Atlantic Low pressure.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a deteriorating weather pattern across the UK as Low pressure moves up from the SW late tomorrow and through the weekend and persists in one shape or form over the UK for the following 10 days or so. This will bring spells of strong winds and rain interspersed with showery interludes and temperatures no better than average. It takes until Day 12 to obtain a ridge which would promise the South a temporary dry interlude for a couple of days before Atlantic Low pressure returns by the end of the period.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar over Week 1 but is rather kinder in Week 2 as more influence of higher pressure to the SE keeps the rain more concentrated towards the North and West in the second week with the drier weather extending to other areas too at the end of the period as High pressure crosses England and Wales from the SW.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show 45% of members with Low pressure to the West in 14 days time with rain at times especially in the West. The remaining 55% of members show a variety of options ranging through High pressure to the South (25%) High pressure to the NE with 'Col' conditions across the UK (25%) and 5% with a rasping Northerly with a deep Low over Scandinavia.
UKMO UKMO today shows a cocktail of Low pressure areas revolving around the UK through next week in very unstable, unsettled and often windy weather with temperatures near average.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show Low pressure taking control of the weather across the UK from the start of the weekend with troughs crossing all areas from the SW and being reinforced by more early next week when windy weather is shown to become a feature too.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120
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GEM GEM today shows the unsettled weather too beginning tomorrow evening in the SW and extending to all areas soon afterwards. The rest of the period is shown to be unsettled and windy with heavy rain at times especially in the West while the SE may see some reduction in rainfall later next week as High pressure brushes by over the near continent setting up warm and humid conditions for a time.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very unsettled this morning as Low pressure moves in from the SW and makes the UK it's resting place for much of next week with rain and showers for all in sometimes strong winds and average temperatures.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM this morning looks very similar to the majority of the output this morning bringing deep Low pressure areas up from the SW and across all areas over the next week. A lot of rainfall is possible in places and some for all though later next week could see drier and humid conditions affect the East and SE for a time as the heaviest rain remains across the West and NW.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a slightly better prospect as Low pressure appears to have retreated further to the NW in the preceding days enabling drier weather to affect the South and East at times while the North and West maintains the more unsettled theme with rain at times.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter. It also indicates that a temporary better period of weather could affect the SE and East late next week.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.3 pts to UKMO's 99.2 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM and UKMO are at 95.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.1 pts followed by ECM at 84.7 and GFS at 82.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.6 pts over GFS's 50.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.3 pts to 33.9 pts from GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
MY THOUGHTS We are staring down the barrel of a marked unsettled and eventually windy period of early Autumn weather as the High pressure of this week becomes a distant memory by Saturday. The SW looks first to see this change with some rain marching in later tomorrow and over the weekend this extends North and East to all areas followed by brighter and more showery conditions for a time. It's the second phase of rain later Sunday and through next week which looks moreominous as this could be accompanied by strong winds and gales in places as a depression deepens as it moves North over the UK on Monday. This sets up a complex system of Low pressure over and around the UK with further spells of rain and showers along with blustery winds throughout the rest of next week. In amongst all this gloom is hope of a better period of weather across the SE and East late next week and the second weekend as High pressure over the near continent could ward off the worst of the Low pressure out to the West and NW and send some warm and humid conditions up across the South and East for a while. The charts showing this are marginal though and in any event it hints that Low pressure would return again to all after a few days to end the period unsettled for all with further rain. So it's basically make the most of this week's fine weather which in itself has been something of a disappointment for many because from saturday onward it will either be raining or rain will never be far away with strong winds to boot at times next week too. Amounts of rain do look greater than any charts I have seen for some considerable while and while widespread problems do not seem likely the water table could become quite high by the end of next week if the Low pressure areas are as persistent and active as some charts show today, this most likely in the West and SW.BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
In selecting the best Chart of the Day there is a measure of how poor conditions will be at times over the next few weeks as the best chart I can find is the current midnight last night one showing High pressure warding off an Atlantic attack for now in a warm SE feed and dry weather for all.
WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
For the worst chart of the day I could of selected quite a few but opted for this one from ECM at Day 5 with the UK engulfed by active Low pressure with the one to the West affecting the UK in the days that follow. This chart is notable for me as it offers no easy way out of unsettled weather over the UK in the following days.
Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 11th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 9TH 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly away NE into Scandinavia over the next 24-48hrs with an ESE flow developing across the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from the coming weekend.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridged well to the North of the UK currently as High pressure lies to the NE. Over the coming days the flow realigns well South of the UK near Iberia before turning North across the UK. Thereafter the flow remains close to or across the UK blowing in a NE'ly or Easterly direction across us.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure receding away to the NE over the coming days with pressure gently falling in the gentle SE flow across the UK. By the weekend a trough of Low pressure moves NE across the UK setting up a period of many troughs and rain at times in a SW wind, strong for a time next week. While this wet and windy theme continues across the NW throughout the remainder of the period a drier, brighter and warmer period is shown to develop for a time across the South and East around the second weekend before Low pressure returns from the West to all by the end of the period.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run in theme with rain at times for all from the weekend. It maintains the unsettled theme off the Atlantic for a week or so until High pressure builds across the UK from the SW to end the period with fine and dry conditions developing for all late in the period with some pleasantly warm days but with mists and fog by night.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are still showing a predominance from members of generally unsettled weather likely across the UK in 14 days time as Low pressure looks likely to remain to the North or NW of the UK. 25% of members do show a ridge affecting the South though at that time keeping the unsettled weather going mainly over the North.
UKMO UKMO today shows very changeable conditions spreading NE across the UK from late Friday and early Saturday. It doesn't show blanket rainfall though as there will be some drier and brighter slots in between with a mostly moderate to fresh SW wind.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the UK High moving away NE with complex Atlantic fronts moving NE across the UK from later on Friday and through the weekend with some short drier spells in between.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.
GEM GEM today shows that once the current fine spell elapses from the start of the weekend the rest of the 10 day period becomes a very volatile and unsettled period with spells of rain and showers on most days for all areas and at times accompanied by strong SW or Westerly winds as Low pressure becomes established either over or just to the North or west of the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very similar to GEM in many respects delivering deeply unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain and strong winds across the UK at times as Low pressure dominates close to the West and North of the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.
ECM ECM this morning looks less dramatic than some of the other output in regard to strong winds but paints the same picture of plenty of rain at times as Low pressure continually feeds in off the Atlantic for most of the period once the current fine spell decays away from late Friday and into Saturday.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a strong indication that Low pressure will lie close to the NW of the UK as well as the Northern North Atlantic with breezy Westerly airflows and rain at times for all areas but perhaps most prolific towards the North and West.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.3 pts to UKMO's 99.2 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM and UKMO are at 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.1 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.3 pts followed by ECM at 84.9 and GFS at 82.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.9 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.4 pts to 33.9 pts from GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains in control across the UK for the time being as it migrates slowly away to the NE over the remaining days of this week to position itself over Scandinavia. As winds veer SE temperatures should be on the rise and sunshine amounts should increase as warmer and drier air is sucked up across the UK from the SE later in the week. Then it's all eyes to the SW as pressure steadily falls and a complete change in weather type occurs over the weekend. Saturday looks likly to be the day of change as Low pressure troughs move up from the SW with rain for Southern and Western regions extending to other sreas too on Sunday. Thereafter while some drier and brighter spells are likely rain never looks like being far away as nearly all output show Low pressure over or near the UK in one shape or form maintaining very changeable conditions with rain at times through next week. There are hints that the South and East may be spared the very worst of the unsettled conditions for a while next week as pressure rises to the South but this looks by no means a guarantee with the overall message today being to enjoy the remainder of the weeks fine and pleasantly warm conditions because from the weekend on we will be chasing bands of rain and showers and possibly strong winds too around the UK as the Jet Stream fires up again in a position likely to be across the South of the UK or Northern France.
BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.gif
With High pressure close to the SE the weather would be fine and warm in the South and East while the North and West see the unsettled theme continue in 11 days.
WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1561.gif
With Low pressure swinging NE over SW Ireland widespread heavy rain and gales would affect the UK in 7 days time.
Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 10th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY SEP 8TH 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly East across the UK today and slowly away to the NE tomorrow with an ESE flow developing across the South.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from the coming weekend.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed over the Atlantic and ridged well to the North of the UK. The pattern slowly shifts East later this week with the trough moving into the UK this coming weekend and setting up a period of a stronger Jet flow moving East over the Atlantic and near to Southern England or Northern France next week onward.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK for some time yet as it transfers slowly NE from the UK towards Scandinavia over the coming days.Pressure then gently falls across the UK towards the weekend with some showery troughs edging up across the UK from the SE and SW with rain at times from Saturday. Then a Westerly flow becomes established across the UK under Low pressure to the North and NW making next week windy and changeable with rain at times especially in the North and West. There seems very little change in this period of changeable weather right out to the end of the run with Westerly winds and rain for all at times.
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run through the next week or so with the breakdown from the South and SW next weekend leading on to a spell of windier and more unsettled weather. The run does show a period of drier and less unsettled weather over the South for a time later next week as a ridge moves close by to the South before unsettled and windy weather returns from the West to all areas again before the end of the period under influence of deep low pressure close to the North.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are showing a lot of influence from low pressure to the North or West of the UK in two weeks time with the wettest conditions in the North and West. Comparatively a handful of members suggest more influence from High pressure close to the SE with drier weather for many.
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving away steadily NE later this week as Low pressure develops South of Ireland moving North over the weekend. After several more dry and warm days things deteriorate from the SW from Saturday with rain at times and cooler air spreading NE across all areas by the start of next week.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the UK High moving away NE too but maintaining a ridge back over the UK until the weekend when Low pressure makes it's move towards the SW with rain moving North and East over Southern and Western Britain before Sunday.
GEM GEM today shows High pressure moving NE away from the UK towards Scandinavia through the remainder of this week with pressure falling across the UK. Things are shown to stay dry until the weekend though when a complex area of Low pressure develops and moves NE along with it's troughs to position themselves across the UK for all of next week with showers or longer spells of rain at times for all areas in cooler conditions too.
NAVGEM NAVGEM too looks broadly the same with things deteriorating from the West over the weekend and setting up a UK based Low pressure system which looks like becoming persistent and slow moving through next week with rain and showers for all at times in breezy and cooler conditions than currently.
ECM ECM this morning completes the set with High pressure moving away to the NE through the rest of the week and eventually being replaced by Low pressure over or around the UK for the remainder of the period. Translating this into weather shows that fine weather will continue until the weekend when Saturday looks like the day of change with rain and fresh winds moving NE across all areas to be followed by breezy SW or West winds and rain or showers at times for most if not all of next week.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a strong indication that Low pressure will lie close to the NW of the UK as well as the Northern North Atlantic with breezy Westerly airflows and rain at times for all areas but perhaps most prolific towards the North and West.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.6 pts followed by ECM at 84.9 and GFS at 82.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.2 pts over GFS's 52.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.6 pts to 34.1 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains in control across the UK for the time being as it migrates slowly away to the NE over the remaining days of this week to position itself over Scandinavia. As winds veer SE temperatures should be on the rise and sunshine amounts should increase as warmer and drier air is sucked up across the UK from the SE later in the week. Then it's all eyes to the SW as pressure steadily falls and a complete change in weather type occurs over the weekend. Saturday looks likely to be the day of change as Low pressure troughs move up from the SW with rain for Southern and Western regions extending to other areas too on Sunday. Thereafter while some drier and brighter spells are likely rain never looks like being far away as nearly all output show Low pressure over or near the UK in one shape or form maintaining very changeable conditions with rain at times through next week. There are hints that the South and East may be spared the very worst of the unsettled conditions for a while next week as pressure rises to the South but this looks by no means a guarantee with the overall message today being to enjoy the remainder of the weeks fine and pleasantly warm conditions because from the weekend on we will be chasing bands of rain and showers and possibly strong winds too around the UK as the Jet Stream fires up again in a position likely to be across the South of the UK or Northern France.Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 9th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY SEP 7TH 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly East across the UK today and tomorrow.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from the coming weekend.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed over the Atlantic and ridged well to the North of the UK. The pattern slowly shifts East later this week with the trough section to the flow moving East into the UK late next week when the flow strengthens to blow West to East across the UK at the start of the second week. Thereafter the pattern becomes variable and ill defined at this range.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK throughout this week. The High will retreat away to the East later in the week with an East or SE flow developing introducing warmer continental air. At the same time pressre will be falling to the South and SW with some thundery rain or showers reachig the South over the weekend. More unsettled conditions are then shown to spread to all areas from the Atlantic at the start of next week. This lasts several days before High pressure builds back across the UK from both the SW and East so that the UK returns to largely dry settled weather at the end of the period.
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run through the next week or so with the breakdown from the South and SW next weekend leading on to a spell of windier and more unsettled weather. This run also shows better High pressure based weather returning through Week 2 with High pressure across the UK bringing back fine and warm weather with sunny spells with just a hint of a cool down from the North right at the end of the period.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are split 65/35% in favour of Atlantic based Westerly winds blowing over the UK at Day 14 with wind and rain at times in average temperatures, the worst of the weather in the North and West. Of the remaining 35% of members the weather looks better under a ridge from the South with 20% showing High pressure across Northern Britain at the same time point.
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving steadily East over the UK over the next few days and away to the East late in the week. Pressure falls from the SW and thundery rain reaches the SW on Saturday and spreads further NE so that by Sunday all parts of the South and West will have turned more unsettled.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show similar sequences to events as the raw data output this morning with a decline in High pressure influenced conditions occurring at the end of the week from the SW but with any major rain bearing systems holding off to the West of the UK until the second part of the weekend.
GEM GEM today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East over the next 3-4 days. It then shows Saturday as the day of change as falling pressure and frontal troughs edge their way NE across the UK through the weekend to set up a cooler and windier spell of weather next week with showers or longer spells of rain at times for all under typically Autumn cyclonic conditions.
NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows the theme of falling pressure from the SW at the end of the working week with a potentially thundery Low developing near SW Britain at the weekend bringing showers or rain at times North over Britain through the weekend.
ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West and away to the East of the UK by midweek or soon after, This sets up a warmer SE flow with sunny spells and dry weather continuing for a while though with falling pressure Low pressure develops near Ireland on Saturday with some showery rain extending North and slowly East over the UK. The pattern then turns to an Atlantic Westerly then SW'ly as Low pressure returns to it's recent habitat to the NW with rain or showers at times while the South and eventually see rather less of this than elsewhere where it also may become rather warm and humid again towards the end of next week.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a strong trough near to the NW of the UK with SW winds and rain at times for all the most likely position we are in at Day 10.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter though in varying degrees of extent.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.6 pts followed by ECM at 85.0 and GFS at 83.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.6 pts over GFS's 52.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.6 pts to 34.1 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS We wait all Summer to see one then lo and behold one appears right across the UK in the first week of September. I am talking of course about High pressure which finally has made landfall across Western Britain today and over the coming days will extend Est across the UK and away into Europe later in the week. I can finally stop talking about the cool Northerly flow and instead await the flow of warmer SE winds which will develop for many from midweek bringing dry and clear continental air NW to many with some warm temperatures too for several days towards the end of the week. Then it's all eyes down to the SW or maybe South as pressure will be falling down there later in the week with Low pressure coming into play over the weekend. The first signs of this could be on Friday in the SW with hazy cloud and the risk of a shower while over the weekend all output shows further progress North and East of this change in conditions with showery rain affecting all places by the end of Sunday and setting up an unsettled Westerly flow early next week with teperatures returning to average and winds possibly rather strong at times. Thereafter the jury is split. WE have GFS who show a split within their own camp with 65% of members continuing an unsettled and changeable theme while the other 35% show something rather more settled especially over the South and East while the rest of the model output suggest a return to what has been the pattern all Summer of Low pressure to the NW and rain at times with the emphasis of rain in the NW while the SE could see drier and warmer weather at times. The latter pattern is where I will hang my hat this morning as it looks like the Jet Stream has the tendency to drift back North somewhat next week after a few days of having moved South to the UK at the start of the second week. Still two weeks is a long time in model terms and we have a good 4-5 days of good weather still to come from this current anticyclone before looking into the mist of next weeks more unsettled phase which will probably chop and change within the output many times in the week to come as the pattern upwind becomes clearer as new data becomes available and we get nearer the time.Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 8th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY SEP 6TH 2015.THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong Anticyclone will move gently East into the UK from the West over the next 24-48hrs with light winds for all as a result.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from nest weekend.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed over the Atlantic and ridged well to the North of the UK. The pattern slowly shifts East later this week with the trough section to the flow moving East into the UK late next week when the flow strengthens to blow West to East across the UK at the start of the second week. Thereafter until the end of the period the flow is shown to ridge over the North Sea and Eastern Britain and flowing North across Western Britain.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK throughout the next week as it moves gently East across the UK over the coming days and then East into northern Europe maintaining a ridge back across the UK. Fine, dry and eventually somewhat warmer weather is likely as winds shift towards the SE later next week. Pressure will then gently fall and low pressure will take control of the UK weather from later next weekend with rain and showers and cooler and stronger west or SW winds in week 2. Pressure rebuilds to the East later in Week 2 with perhaps a return to drier and warmer weather in the East to end the period while the West stays cloudier and breezier with occasional rain..
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run throughout this morning with a decline in conditions from next weekend with rain, strong winds and cooler air engulfing the UK under a deep Atlantic depression to start Week 2. The unsettled and breezy conditions then are shown set to continue for the remainder of the period.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show the majority of members going for cyclonic influence across the UK in two weeks time as Low pressure looks likely to dominate the UK positioned either to the North or NW of the UK.
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the NE through this week. Quiet settled weather will dominate with a warmer SE breeze developing from midweek. By Friday and more certainly the start of the weekend troughs will be perilously close into the SW and these are shown to enter Southern and Western Britain with some rain by Saturday.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show similar sequences to events as the raw data output this morning with a decline in High pressure influenced conditions occurring at the end of the week from the SW.
GEM GEM today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East over the next 3-4 days. The weather will stay largely dry with some sunshine and light winds until midweek when the High has crossed East into Europe setting up a warmer South-easterly flow. Troughs are ganging up to the West and finally make it across the UK next weekend with some rain edging NE across the UK and eventually setting up an East/West split with rain at times in the West but still drier weather further East as High pressure remains locked in over Europe and Low well to the West and SW of the UK.
NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a largely fine and settled week to come under High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East from midweek. Changes on this run are slow and next weekend is the point of change when some showery rain crosses NE across the UK followed by a slow change to Atlantic based Westerly winds and Low pressure up to the NW to start the second week.
ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West and away to the East of the UK by midweek or soon after, This sets up a warmer SE flow with sunny spells and dry weather continuing until troughs edge slowly over from the West or SW next weekend and brings more changeable conditions for Week 2 with Low pressure up to the NW with rain at times for many but probably not much to the South and East.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from this morning shows Low pressure just to the NW with a trough down across the UK meaning most members indicate a shift back towards more unsettled and breezy SW winds likely across the UK by day 10.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter though in varying degrees of extent.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.9 pts followed by ECM at 85.4 and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 60.8 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 42.0 pts to 34.9 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains the main theme from the models this morning for the first week of the two week period as it drifts from a position West of Ireland across the UK over the coming days and away to the East and NE by midweek or soon after. The Northerly drift of today should be largely cut off tomorrow with little or no wind until midweek when a SE flow develops. This will have the effect of warming the air temperatures close to the surface as the flow drifts from a warmer continent. Amounts of cloud still look troublesome until this warmer SE breeze sets up sending dry air NW over the UK with largely sunny and warmer conditions to many. From the same time pressure looks to fall from the West and SW by next weekend and rain will reach the SW from as early as next Friday before marching it slowly NE to other areas over next weekend. The general theme from then on is for the Atlantic to regain control but to what extent is unclear again this morning with some output suggesting High pressure may hold to the East or SE making the West and NW most favoured for rain, showers and cooler winds while the South and East looks like they may hold on to some drier and brighter and somewhat warmer weather. However, this is not a guaranteed scenario with this morning's ECM 10 Day Mean Chart indicating Low pressure close enough into the UK to affect all areas with rain at times which isn't as supportive of the better weather theory for the SE as the operational suggests. So uncertainty on the longer term is still a feature of the output this morning but at least in the short term we are guaranteed a working week of fine and dry weather with increasingly warmer conditions if rather breezy weather from midweek. Then from next weekend a spell of more typical early Autumn weather looks likely with rain at times perhaps more focused towards the North and West with some dry spells in between more likely over the South and East.Next update from 09:00 Monday Sep 7th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY SEP 5TH 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak cold front will clear South out of Southern England this morning followed by an area of High pressure edging East into the West of the UK tomorrow.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week before the chance of more unsettled weather retuns later.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridging around the UK as High pressure edges across the UK from the West. Thereafter the flow gradually strengthens first over the Atlantic and then over and around the UK as we move through the second week of the period.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK throughout the next week as it moves gently East across the UK over the coming days and then East into northern Europe maintaining a ridge back across the UK. Fine, dry and eventually somewhat warmer weather is likely as winds shift towards the SE later next week. Pressure will gently fall and late next weekend and the following week shows a very unsettled and windy phase under deep Atlantic Low pressure before High pressure is shown to regain control right a the end of the period positioned to the NE.
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows the operational throughout the first week with High pressure moving East across and away East out of the UK next week. The weather stays set fair and somewhat warmer with time with some sunshine and an increasing Southerly breeze next week. Then the model run shows a more extensive and prolonged unsettled spell from late next weekend lasting until and probably the end of the run with rain at times and a fresh to strong SW wind, heaviest rain always towards the NW.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a lot of Low pressure around the UK in two weeks. There is a fairly even split of positioning this to the West, SW or over the UK with cyclonic winds as a result. 30% of members show the SE escaping the worst of the rain with Low pressure far enough to the West to restrict the worst conditions away from the SE.
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure crossing the UK in the coming days and away to the NE setting up a large blocking High over Scandinavia. Fine weather will be the result of this with sunny spells and an increasing SE breeze towards midweek when pressure is shown to be falling to the West and SW.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure moving in over the North of the UK and away to the NE by midweek. Fine weather is likely as a result with winds increasing towards midweek from the South or SE.
GEM GEM today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East over the next 3-4 days. The weather will stay largely dry with some sunshine and light winds until midweek when the High has crossed East into Europe setting up a warmer Southerly flow. Troughs are ganging up to the West and finally make it across the UK next weekend with some rain setting up a more Westerly air type with Low pressure near the North with troughs crossing East delivering wind and rain or showers at times to all in 10 days time.
NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the transit of a High East across the UK and off east into Europe next week with fine and dry weather for all over the next 4-5 days at least. It then shows a change towards more unsettled conditions a little sooner than the above models with rain reaching the West later Thursday and Friday and setting up an unsettled and cooler weekend with some rain as Low pressure edges across Southern areas.
ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West towards the end of the weekend displacing the cool Northerly with calm and fine conditions. With the High slightly further North than other output towards Scandinavia before taking it away into Russia towards the end of next week by which time. A lot of fine and dry weather next week will be displaced towards next weekend by more unsettled conditions edging in from the West and South with some thundery rain possible for a time before the Atlantic takes control towards Day 10 with Low pressure winding up near western Britain with rain at times for all by then.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW with a trough down across the UK meaning most members indicate a shift back towards more unsettled and breezy SW winds likely across the UK by day 10
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.1 pts followed by ECM at 85.7 and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.0 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 41.2 pts to 35.2 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS The loss of the cool Northerly that has afflicted the UK of late is almost upon us as all models continue to show High pressure crossing East over Britain and then away to the East and NE over the next 5-6 days. The net result will be for somewhat warmer conditions to eventually develop as we lose the Northerly drift and trade it for a Southerly one by the middle of next week. Until then though days will feel warmer but with little wind night's will still be very chilly with the introduction of some valley mists and fogs as well as a touch of frost is possible as the light winds under the High cross over. Then we still run the gauntlet of what happens to the weather over the UK as the High moves away to the East. Not unlike yesterday there is some output that show a lot of resistance from the High blocking Atlantic fronts from making too much inroad into the UK and as a result any unsettled conditions with rain may well be restricted to Western regions only until late next weekend. It then looks as though the High will finally give ground completely and we then get a variety of charts that show very unsettled and possibly windy conditions with rain at times through week 2. I think the models paint a fairly clear message this morning and although the specifics and detail of what happens from later next week remains questionable the message from all output is clear to see. So in a nutshell we have a week or so of decent enough weather with fine, dry, bright and eventually warmer conditions for all before a slow breakdown from the South or West seems likely next weekend leading into a more unsettled spell as we move into mid September for all areas so let's enjoy the fine weather that's to come in the next week while we can.Next update from 09:00 Sunday Sep 6th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY SEP 4TH 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool North or NW flow will persist between Low pressure to the East. A weak cold front will move South across the UK tonight followed by High pressure edging into northern Britain from the West.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week before the chance of more unsettled weather retuns later.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow situated running South ver the North Sea over the coming days, weakening and moving away East to leave the UK away from the main flow to the NW.The trend is then for the flow to slip back South over the Atlantic and eventually towards the UK in the second half of the second week.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the cool Northerly flow being cut off later this wekend by High pressure moving into the UK from the West. The trend is then for the High to move away to the NE next week with an East or SE warmer flow developing before further on still Atlantic Low pressure becomes steadily more influential, first in the West and NW then to all areas as the remains of an ex tropical storm come into the mix late in Week 2.
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning closely replicates that of the operational throughout with the next week seeing a lot of dry and eventually somewhat warmer weather as an Easterly flow develops. The shift towards more changeable conditions is slower on this run particularly for the South and East where it would stay dry into the start of the second week before Atlantic wind and rain spreads East across all areas.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a much more unsettled look with almost total support for Low pressure to be the dominant role player in the weather over the UK in 14 days, most likely positioned to the North or NW.
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving gently east across the UK later in the weekend and the start of next week. A period of fine if still rather cloudy conditions look likely with a trough affecting the NW by the middle of next week with some rain while the South and East stay largely dry and less cool than of late.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure moving in too over the weekend. It also shows a cold front wavering Southward early in the weekend with some rain for a time. As the High moves in to start next week we could be chasing rather large amounts of cloud rounding the Northern flank of the High and down over the UK for a while.
GEM GEM today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the east over the next 4-5 days. The weather will stay largely dry from tomorrow with some sunshine but quite large cloud amounts at time. Then through the early days of next week the NW will become more unsettled with some rain while the South and East stay fine and dry for a while longer. However, things turn very unsettled and windy with gales for all over next weekend as a very deep Autumnal Low becomes slow moving across the UK with heavy rain, showers and strong winds likely for all at the end of the period.
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure too moving East across the UK and on into Europe through the next 4-5 days. This then forms a block to the East with winds between East and South for the UK, warming things up and while mostly dry still fronts to the West will be perilously close to Western areas by the end of the period next Friday.
ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West towards the end of the weekend displacing the cool Northerly with calm and fine conditions. With the High slightly further North than other output the eventual resting place over Scandinavia makes for a better resistance against Low pressure from off the Atlantic keeping things fine and dry for many away from the NW throughout next week aided by a strong Azores High too. Then at the end of the run the Azores High collapses and makes way for Atlantic Low pressure to enter the UK from the West with rain and showers spreading to all areas by Day 10.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night replicates the raw data quite well this morning as by Day 10 after a period of quiet anticyclonic conditions High pressure moves away to the East with Low pressure moving East into the UK from off the Atlantic.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have maintained their theme of moving High pressure across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week. Thereafter models continue to vary in the way that any breakdown in conditions occur and to what extent.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM nudging ahead of UKMO at 96.1 pts to 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.1 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.6 pts followed by ECM at 85.9 and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.9 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 41.3 pts to 35.4 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS Changes in the outputs are slow again today and all focus on the way they handle any breakdown of the High pressure as it exits the UK next week to the East. There are no changes in the short term and all outputs remain rock solid in predicting High pressure crossing the UK over the coming days and cutting off this cool North flow but probably disappointingly for many maintaining a lot of cloud over the UK and temperatures suppressed as a result. By next week the High should be to the East and as winds settle East or SE things should finally warm up with some warm sunshine for most but still chilly and perhaps misty nights. Then the divergences between the models become all too apparent with a mixture of a maintained generally fine and dry period almost to Day 10 from the likes of ECM at one extreme and a complete diversion into stormy Autumn from GEM by next weekend. Whilst feasible and partly due to the incursion of some tropical air left over from tropical storms over the Western Atlantic the GEM version of such a deep Low over the UK next weekend is probably overcooked and will hopefully be removed or displaced by the next run. The more likely option in my book is something along the lines of ECM where the High moves to the East or NE but maintains a link to an Azores High keeping fine and dry and hopefully warmer than of late conditions across the South and East for much of next week and while a breakdown to more Atlantic based Low pressure is probably favoured thereon it remains nothing of a guarantee as at that range and with tropical storms over the Western Atlantic impossible to predict in their movements the complete opposite may transpire. So what I am suggesting this morning is a lot of uncertainty from the middle of next week with all models likely to change at short notice at the midweek next week range onward. Changes run to run could be quite diverse too as early Autumn synoptics and the increasing differences between a cooling Arctic and the still Summery warmth of the tropics and continent still exist possibly promoting some more potent Low and High pressure areas where the two opposing air masses meet. Having said that GEM aside there is nothing alarmist from a bad weather point of view shown over the next few weeks at present.Next update from 09:00 Saturday Sep 5th 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 3RD 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool North or NW flow will persist between Low pressure to the East and High pressure to the West of the British Isles.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week before the chance of rain returns to at least the NW later.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow situated well South over Spain and North over Iceland. The Northern arm links to the Southern arm via the North Sea over the weekend while staying well to the NW of the UK for the start of next week. Through the second week the trend is for the flow to sink South over or to the South of the UK with time resuming distturbed cyclonic weather patterns over the British Isles.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a few more days of this cool Northerly flow before the HIgh pressure to the West of Ireland finally makes landfall across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week with less cool and bright days though nights will remain cool and misty. Through the second half of the run the High slips slowly away East and South but still maintains some influence for many until the final days of the run when Atlantic Low pressure bring a batch of rain and strong winds East over the UK.
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning closely replicates that of the operational in Week 1 with a lot of dry, fine and gradually less cool weather by day affecting all areas from the weekend. Through the second week the High is shown to edge East into Northern Europe and becomes a blocking feature with low pressure to the West and SW unable to make much inroads into the UK and affecting just extreme Western regions. Things do become a little more changeable at the end of the period as weakening troughs stagger across the UK from the West.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show quite a mixed bag with the bias slightly in favour af an Atlantic influence most likely in 14 days with Westerly winds bringing the risk of times especially in the North. Having said that there are quite a few members who show influence of High pressure to the East of the UK playing some role in keeping things rather drier and warmer.
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving gently east across the UK later in the weekend and the start of next week. A period of sunny skies and light and less cool breezes looks likely for all areas up to the middle of next week at least and while nights will still be cool and misty days could become rather warm in the sunshine.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure moving in too over the weekend. It also shows a cold front wavering Southward early in the weekend with some rain for a time. As the High moves in to start next week we could be chasing rather large amounts of cloud rounding the Northern flank of the High and down over the UK for a while.
GEM GEM today shows a somewhat different picture as we move deeper into next week. The High moves in across the UK as with the other outputs but then declines it away SE through next week to bring Low pressure down into the NW by midweek and all other areas by next weekend with rain at times in blustery Westerly winds.
NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme in as much as High pressure is shown to move across the UK late in the weekend with less cool and fine weather for all as a result. Then as this pulls away East next week something of a ridge is maintained across many parts from the East. However a weakening trough is shown to stagger across the UK towards midweek with a little rain in places.
ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West towards the end of the weekend displacing the cool Northerly with calm and fine conditions. The High is then shown to migrate to the NE which opens the door to atlantic troughs to make some progress into the Uk from the West later next week. By the end of the run we look back in a familiar pattern of High to the East and SE and Low to the Northwest with rain at times a risk for all but chiefly across the North and West.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows that the High centre transfers to the East by Day 10 and with the Azores High in position a weak trough is at risk of affecting the UK again by the end of next week.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have maintained their theme of moving High pressure across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week. Thereafter the waters muddy with variable evolutions towards slightly less settled weather indicated.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM tieing with UKMO at 96.1 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.6 pts followed by ECM at 86.0 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.4 pts over GFS's 53.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.9 pts to 35.0 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS The models are rock solid this morning in bringing High pressure East across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week, displacing the cool Northerly breezes that have afflicted us this week with something warmer and dry with sunny spells but with chilly nights under clear Autumn skies. It's the 'thereafter' which is less clear but there does seem to be some coming together that the High looks likely to edge away east of the UK by the middle of next week. It's the speed of the decline of pressure that is unclear with some output maintaining largely High pressure close to the East, NE or SE and holding rain bearing Atlantic fronts away. GEM though shows a much more stark dip into unsettled and Autumnal weather for all by the end of next week and most other output that looks out to that point indicate something of a trough edging across the UK at some point with at least a little rain. My own train of though think that ECM might have the best handle on things this morning as in my opinion I think High pressure will move away to the NE or East and allow Atlantic fronts into more NW areas while the South and East stay largely dry and fine and relatively warmer. I notice this morning that there is an ex tropical storm in the Atlantic mix in about a weeks time and the positioning of this will have to be watched as while not directly affecting the UK the unpredictability of it's movements in the Western Atlantic could have knock on effects on synoptics for our little part of the World come the time. Nevertheless, nothing too bad on the horizon this morning and in fact some very pleasant early Autumn weather looks likely for many areas for several days as the transit of the High across the UK occurs.Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 4th 2015
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Here is the Stats for August, Summer and 2015 so far for my little neck of the woods.
http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Data-Tables-and-Report(2798516).htm
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 2ND 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool North or NW flow will persist between Low pressure to the East and High pressure to the West of the British Isles.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Cool and showery this week before things warm up from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow very slack over and around the UK with the main arm harmlessly away to the North of the UK over the coming days. The flow dives South over the North Sea over the weekend before gradually becoming an undulating pattern in the vicinity of 50-55deg North across and to the West of the UK through the 2nd week.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cool Northerly flow blowing down across the UK through the next 3-4 days with showers in places as the pattern of High pressure to the West of the UK and Low to the East persists. Then over the weekend the large High to the West of the UK migrates East across Britain delivering fine, sunny and less cool weather. This then persists for several days but then becomes eroded from the NW by Atlantic troughs edging SE. The pattern deepens in Week 2 with Low pressure taking control across all areas with a pattern of rain or showers at times setting up an early Autumn period of blustery winds and average temperatures.
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning closely replicates that of the operational with a period of fine and less cool weather at the weekend as High pressure moves East over us. Then as with the operational this declines in favour of a stronger Atlantic Westerly pattern of winds for all areas with rain and showers at times in Week 2 with winds quite strong at times with gales towards the NW.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have switched much more in favour of a more unsettled period of weather by mid month as Low pressure off the Atlantic takes control most likely positioned to the NW of the UK. This pattern is covered by at least 65% of members while the other 35% show less unsettled conditions at least for the South while the North and NW are almost blanket covered in unsettled conditions by all members in 14 days time.
UKMO UKMO today shows a continuation of the cool North or NW flow across the UK until at least the weekend when the High to the West of Ireland gently moves East into the UK but as weakening feature. Nevertheless the cool Northerly winds will become a thing of the past by the end of the weekend with fine and less cool weather by day with sunny spells while nights remain calm and come increasingly misty in rural parts.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a continuation of the rather cool and showery feed of Northerly winds blowing down across the UK for the remainder of the week with less cool air gradually feeding across the UK later in the weekend as troughs clear away to the South.
GEM GEM today shows very little change in it's output this morning to that of yesterday morning. After several more days of cool and potentially showery weather a band of cloud and a little rain early in the weekend clears South with High pressure crossing East over the UK with fine and sunny and less cool weather as a result. Through next week the High moves away NE to Scandinavia and a strong but warm SE flow develops with increasingly unsettled weather nudging up from the SW towards the end of the run as pressure falls to the West and SW.
NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme in as much as High pressure is shown to move across the UK late in the weekend with less cool and fine weather for all as a result. Then as this pulls away East next week a ridge is maintained across the UK with fine and relatively warm conditions persisting for many areas although the NW may cloud over under a SW wind with a little rain by midweek..
ECM ECM this morning shows a cool Northerly flow being maintained across the UK through the remainder of this week. We have to wait for the passage of a trough South across the UK towards the weekend before the High to the West finally makes it's move East across the UK, cutting off the Northerly feed and introducing fine and much warmer conditions. Then through next week the High declines to the South or SE and more changeable conditions are introduced ino the North and West though on this run effects in the South are muted with a lot of fine weather persisiting out to the end of the run with rain at times returning only to the North and West.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows that the previous day's of High pressure is showing signs of moving slowly away to the East.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have changed little in firstly their movement into the UK of High pressure at the weekend and secondly in the confusion and disagreements in where the High migrates or dissolves away to in the period that follows next week and beyond.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM tieing with UKMO at 96.1 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.5 pts followed by ECM at 86.1 and GFS at 83.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.5 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.8 pts to 34.5 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS We still have three or four more days of this stark reminder that we are entering Autumn now with Northerly winds dominant over all of the UK until the end of the weekend with sunshine and showers and jolly cool nights. It looks like a band of cloud and occasional rain will slip South over the UK at the start of the weekend and behind this is when the High to the West of the UK makes it's move into the UK from the West. The main result of this will be to cut off the cool Northerly feed and bring warmer sunny spells by day though cool misty early Autumn nights are still likely. That is as far as any guarantees in the weather that follows goes this morning I'm afraid as all models then show a cocktail of various and very different options as far as what happens next week and beyond. GFS (well supported by the Control and Cluster runs) shows a full blooded change to Atlantic Westerlies and unsettled conditions for all from not long after midweek next week while GEM is still on the track of a strong Scandinavian High, strong SE winds and fronts moving up into the South from the SW. NAVGEM holds High pressure to the East in control as a ridge from it mainatins fine weather over much of the South and Central slice of the UK leaving UKMO and ECM with a much slacker looking High entering Britain at the end of the weekend and start to next week before ECM moves on to maintain fine conditions across the mjority of the South with only the NW seeing any meaningful attack from Atlantic Low pressure. So which is right? That is anyones guess this morning and I don't think it will be resolved until we get the High out West into the UK later this weekend before we can pin down anything that might evolve thereafter. So concentrating for now on what is more or less certain a trend towards less cool, fine and dry weather is likely for all at least for a time commencing this weekend and probably lasting well into next week for some and possibly more. Thereafter, it's a case of more runs needed I'm afraid.Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 3rd 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY SEP 1ST 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool North or NW flow will persist between Low pressure to the East and High pressure to the West of the British Isles.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Cool and showery this week before things warm up from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather for many next week.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the recent NE moving flow over the UK now finally exited East of the UK with the flow well away from the UK for most of the rest of the week. A weak arm moves South down the North Sea later in the week and weekend before this too decays as the main thrust of the flow is well to the NW early next week moving NE. It then turns sharply South later next week to the UK or points further South as well as strengthening markedly too and blowing on a West to East course.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cool Northerly flow blowing down across the UK through the next 4-5 days with showers in places as the pattern of High pressure to the West of the UK and Low to the East persists. With time the High gains supremacy as it moves slowly East across Northern Britain over the weekend and start to next week. This will cut off the cool Northerly flow, veering it towards the East in the South but flat calm in the North. Warmer days are likely with sunny spells but cool and misty nights. Then as the High continues East or NE towards Scandinavia the pattern becomes more complex with various incursions of lower pressure from the South and eventually the West and NW threatening the UK by ending the fine spell with showers then the risk of more windy and wet weather from the NW for all by the end of the run.
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today shows a very similar process to the operational run in bringing the High across the Uk from the West by early next week displacing the cool northerly feed with light and variable winds, warmer weather with plenty of sunshine by day and misty nights. Then the passage of the High to the East on this run maintains much more of a ridge across the UK with fine and warmer weather for many with no real major breakdown indicated within the 14 day time frame.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show an estimated 60/40 split in maintaining an influence from High pressure positioned to the South or SW of the UK for most areas away from the far North in 14 days time.
UKMO UKMO today shows a continuation of the cool North or NW flow across the UK until at least the weekend when the High to the West of Ireland gently moves East to be approaching the western coasts of the UK by early next week. Sunshine and showers chiefly across the East would be the pattern until the weekend when drier and less cool weather encroaches in by day at least.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a continuation of the rather cool and showery feed of Northerly winds blowing down across the UK for the remainder of the week with less cool air gradually feeding down from the NW towards the weekend perhaps with some rain as a frontal wave slips SE over the UK..
GEM GEM today shows very little change in the current pattern of weather over the next 3-4 days with sunshine and a scattering of showers for all areas in a cool breeze. The pattern is then complicated by a frontal zone moving South at the weekend perhaps with some thick cloud and rain before High pressure finally makes it's move across the UK and on towards Scandinavia next week. This cuts off the cool northerly flow and things are shown to warm up considerably next week as winds freshen from the East and SE dragging warm continental air to all. Pressure falling to the SW at Day 10 would have to be watched over the coming days following Day 10.
NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme with little differences to the overall pattern from the other output. Towards the end of the run the High to the West edges closer in with the same theme of the rest of the output suggesting much less cool air eventually affecting the UK under fine conditions.
ECM ECM this morning shows a cool Northerly flow being maintained across the UK through the remainder of this week. We have to wait for the passage of a trough South across the UK towards the weekend before the High to the West finally makes it's move East across the UK, cutting off the Northerly feed and introducing fine and much warmer conditions. Then through next week the High recedes away to the East over Europe but we have to wait several days before any major signs of breakdown become shown, on this run from the West and SW
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to endorse the prospect that the UK could lie under High pressure in 10 days time all part of a theme to drift it across the UK and away to the East from around the 10 day point on.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all support High pressure moving East across the UK from the weekend with no strong trends on what happens thereafter.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.2 pts followed by UKMO at 96.0 pts and GFS at 95.1 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.7 pts followed by ECM at 86.2 and GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.6 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.5 pts to 34.6 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS The models continue to show the very slow progression towards High pressure crossing into the UK from the West later this coming weekend. In the interim period what we have now looks like sticking for some time to come yet with a cool Northerly flow persistent across all areas. While a reasonable amount of dry weather is likely for many showers are likely too, locally heavy towards the East but with some bright early Autumn sunshine too. Also at the end of this 4-5 day period most models suggest a trough running South early in the weekend which brings a spell of cloud and rain South which in it's wake is the catalyst that prompts the High to the West to move across the UK, cutting off the cool feed and replacing it with little or no wind, warmer sunny spells by days and misty nights. There are various options shown from then on as models differ somewhat on what to do with the High next week. Most output shifts it to the East with some warm and dry weather for much of the UK with sunny spells as winds settle from the East or SE, strongly on GEM. Once the High moves to the East other output suggests that a ridge will be maintained across the UK and dry and very pleasant weather continues for many as a result whereas in the 10-14 day time-frame some suggestion from both ECM and GFS that some ingress of more unsettled weather from either the South, West or NW is knocking on the door at that time. However, there is little common ground between outputs at that range this morning so I will treat these long term evolutions with little confidence at this time. So there you have it, we have 3-4 days more of these chilly and showery northerly winds before warmer and calmer conditions look likely from late in the weekend and much of next week with a hint only of a breakdown at the end of the forecast period. All in all the above indicates typical early Autumn weather especially once the High takes hold from the weekend. This could of course involve some cool morning's of mellow mists and fruitfulness with some fine almost summer-like afternoons. It also suggests that there will be very little in the way of rain across the UK for a while once this week's showers clear out of the way.Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 2nd 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY AUG 31ST 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will clear Eastern Britain today followed by a cold and showery Northerly flow between High pressure developing across the Eastern Atlantic and Low pressure near Denmark.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Cool and showery this week before things warm up somewhat later with some rain in the NW and mostly dry conditions elsewhere.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast pattern shows the Jet Stream clearing out of the UK to the East over the coming days. The flow becomes split and light well South and North of the UK. through week 2 before it strengthens across the Atlantic from Canada and blows East over Northern Britain towards the end of the period.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cool Northerly flow blowing down across the UK through the working days of this week as Low pressure takes it's time to exit the scene East across Europe. Later in the week High pressure topples down across the UK from the West and NW with a settled and quiet spell of weather with warm sunshine by day but chilly and possibly misty nights. Later in the run the High receded back to the SW somewhat maintaining fine if rather cloudy conditions in the South while the North see the return of Atlantic winds and some rain or showers, possibly extending to all areas late in the period as pressure falls generally.
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today shows a very similar evolution through Week 1 with the cool Northerly flow taking until the weekend to be cut off by High pressure toppling SE over the UK. So a showery and cool week before dry and fine conditions develop over next weekend. The trend through Week 2 shows Low pressure slipping South and East across the UK displacing the High with windy and cool weather returning with some rain for all with the weather then turning benign and quite towards the end of the period.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a 80/20 split in favour of High pressure either ridged across the UK or centred over the top of us with fine, pleasantly warm and quiet early Autumn weather as a result. The 20% show a more unsettled feed of cool West or NW winds and occasional rain from Low pressure towards Scandinavia.
UKMO UKMO today shows a cool week across the British Isles with the UK sandwiched between High pressure to the West or NW of Scotland and Low pressure over Germany and the continent in general. A showery Northerly flow slowly weakens by next weekend as a ridge slips South over the UK but maintaining a Northerly element to the wind it will still feel cool but become largely dry by then.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning replicate the raw data fairly well again today with generally Northerly winds and minor troughs running South in the flow especially over the east where showers will be at their most prolific. Elsewhere a lot of dry and fine weather seems likely up to and including most of next weekend.
GEM GEM today shows High pressure to the west and Low pressure to the East with a Northerly feed down across all parts of the UK through the working days of the week. then at the weekend the High topples over Northern areas before moving away to the NE early next week. So a lot of dry and cool weather with just scattered showers this week before becoming calm and fine over Northern Britain at the weekend while winds though light veer east in the South before pressure gently falls for all next week as lower pressure threatens from the South and West by Day 10.
NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme with little differences to the overall pattern from the other output. Towards the end of the run the High to the West edges closer in with a trend to back winds to a less chilly West or NW direction especially over the North.
ECM ECM this morning shows a cool Northerly flow being maintained across the UK through this week before the High to the West finally makes it's move across the UK early next week with some fine and warmer weather for a time. Then towards the end of the period at Day 10 Low pressure to the NW declines the High to allow Westerly winds and rain at times to extend slowly SE from the NW towards the back end of next week.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from this morning continues to endorse the prospect that the UK could lie under High pressure in 10 days time with the suggestions that it could be sliding away slowly SE in the following days.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have reasserted their desire to build High pressure across the UK at least for a time through the coming weekend and into next week before a slow decline in conditions again thereon.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.2 pts followed by UKMO at 96.0 pts and GFS at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.7 pts followed by ECM at 86.2 and GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.7 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 41.4 pts to 34.8 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains the dominant theme to talk about in the model output this morning. It's position is far from ideal for the UK though as it spends all this week to the West of the UK and coupled with Low pressure over Northern Europe winds are constantly fed down from a Northerly source across the UK. So after today's remnants of thundery rain exit the East all areas share similar weather with a Northerly breeze, rather strong in the East for a time together with a mix of sunshine and showers. While there shouldn't be many showers across the South and West some Eastern areas could see some heavy and thundery ones at times early in the period and skies here could stay mostly cloudy accentuating the cool feel. It's not until the weekend when the models show a general shift towards bringing the High pressure closer to or indeed over the UK with increasingly fine and sunny and warmer conditions as a result of the Northerly flow being cut off. Night's could stay chilly and misty though despite warmer days. From early next week on there are suggestions from all of the longer term output of at least a temporary return of more unsettled weather, probably from the North-west but the 14 day clusters from GFS still indicate a lot of High pressure dominated weather even at that point so the jury is out on how or how long any breakdown could or will occur. So for the most part the models look a shade better to me than yesterday morning's crop with gently improving conditions over the UK over the upcoming week and while no heatwave being on the cards if the showers can be escaped there will be a lot of dry, fine and eventually a little warmer weather to be enjoyed possibly extending rather longer than this if the longer term models have disposed of the High cell over the UK next week too quickly.Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 1st 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY AUG 30TH 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will lie across Southern England today and tonight with a complex if shallow Low pressure forming along it tomorrow before the whole system slowly edges away East later
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming drier and brighter for many especially towards the NW. A cool breeze at times with a few showers in the SE with some very cool and misty nights for many.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast pattern shown this morning shows a very complex pattern to the flow over the coming two weeks. The current SW to NE flow across the South weakens in the coming days with the main thrust of the flow well to the North of the UK later this week. Complexities arise thereafter with a potentially strong flow over the Atlantic split North or South of the UK due to higher pressure to the North or NE.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure developing to the West of the UK before moving to the North and NE of the UK later. The thundery rain of today and tomorrow across the South and SE should give way to showers on Tuesday as the Low responsible for the rain drifts NE into the North Sea and deepens. This then remains low moving for some time before it fills and drifts back South keeping the South always at risk from showers while the North remains locked under High pressure with fine conditions. It looks like becoming cool everywhere in a North then NE breeze. Week 2 still keeps the best weather over the North while the South remains at risk from showers reinforced by further Low pressure to the SW and South. Then right at the end of the run changeable conditions in a return to Westerly breezes affects all areas.
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today shows virtually the same pattern as the operational through the coming week with North is best for the driest and brightest weather while the East and South remain plagued by Low pressure just to the East and SE with cool breezes and showers at times. It differs from next weekend though as the Atlantic becomes influential across all areas again as Low pressure fills the void left from this weeks filling Low pressure and brings rain and showers to all areas again. It will feel cool for much of the time especially at night and in the NW through Week 1 closest to High pressure to the North and West.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a fairly even split again with the UK lying either under a ridge between High pressure to the NE and SW or a more direct westerly flow under Low pressure to the North. 15% of members show High pressure across the UK with fine and warm conditions as a result.
UKMO UKMO today shows a cool week across the British Isles with the UK sandwiched between High pressure to the West or NW of Scotland and Low pressure over Germany and the continent in general. A NNE flow across the UK should deliver a lot of fine and cool weather with jolly chilly nights but some showers are possible in the East and South at times.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning replicate the raw data fairly well this morning with the reluctance to push Low pressure to the East of the UK far enough away to allow the influence of High pressure to the West and NW. As a result a cool NNE flow will develop early in the week and last through to the weekend with cool and breezy weather with some showers in the East and South with some very cool nights in the clearer NW.
GEM GEM too today fails to show the High pressure zone forming to the West any chance of ridging across the UK as Low pressure remains stubbornly anchored across the North Sea and even gains support from a new incursion from the North later next weekend to keep cool and showery conditions across most areas over most of the period with a brisk breeze blowing from a Northerly sector only becoming replaced by SE winds and falling pressure to the SW late in the period as rain moves in from that direction then.
NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme to UKMO with a weaker area of Low pressure across mainland Europe. It allows the High to the West to inch towards the UK through the week but insufficient to prevent northerly winds being maintained across the UK with showers more and more confined to the SE by next weekend.
ECM ECM this morning shows a halfway house between GFS and UKMO this week with the slow rise of pressure indicated through the week but not before Low pressure over the North Sea over the midweek period gives some cool, breezy and showery weather for many. The High to the West then migrates to the NE and settles North of Scotland veering winds to the East across the South still with the risk of showers feeding across from nearby Europe in the SE. At the end of the run pressure falls to the SW too and Southern Britain could be attacked by more wind and rain from the South or SW soon after the end of the period.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from this morning continues to endorse the prospect that the UK could lie under High pressure in 10 days time though there are suggestions of a slight weakening of the pressure pattern by around that time.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have lessened their theme towards High pressure based weather developing next week from off the Atlantic.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.2 pts followed by UKMO at 95.9 pts and GFS at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.8 pts followed by ECM at 86.3 and GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.6 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 42.0 pts to 35.9 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS Today's output is split with a worrying half of the output from GFS (both operational and control runs) along with GEM showing a deep Low over the North Sea blocked through this week and preventing much interest for many from High pressure to the West maintaining a cool Northerly flow with showers for much of the time. However, both the big powerhouses of UKMO and ECM which UKMO interestingly has been outperforming ECM of late at 5 days range shows a more modified area of Low pressure over Northern Europe allowing the High to make some progress into the West and North of the UK later in the week. Once again I expect short term forecast changes in the weather to occur again this week as the hemispheric pressure patterns continue to be somewhat unusual and stubbornly misbehaving of late.So in weather terms as I quoted in my reports midweek my feeling then was we would have trouble over this weekend from the frontal boundary to the SE and this has proven to be the case with energy continuing to run NE along it over the coming 24-48hrs affecting the South and East before forming a closed Low centre near the SE which moves NNE into Denmark by Tuesday. From that point on there are differences between the two groups of output with the GFS camp delivering the UK a cool northerly flow all week and into next weekend with showers a risk for all areas at times. In the Euro's camp a much more open area of Low pressure to the East allows higher pressure to the West to bear some influence for many with dry and bright weather with just a few showers towards the East along with lighter but equally cool winds. Then longer term we see various evolutions, all of which are credible given the pattern we have but none that can be taken too seriously at this range. So in a very complex nutshell my best stab at the forecast for the next 10-14 days is North and West being best with sunshine and dry weather but with jolly cool nights and none too warm days while the South and East while also seeing dry, cool and fine weather at times are at greatest risk of showers from pressure being low over the nearby continent.Next update from 09:00 Monday Aug 31st 2015
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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY AUG 29TH 2015THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak SW flow covers the UK today with slack pressure developing over the South as a warm front edges North into Southern Britain later tonight and tomorrow..
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming drier and brighter for many especially towards the NW. A cool breeze at times with a few showers in the SE with some very cool and misty nights for many.THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast pattern shown this morning indicates the flow running NE across the South of Britain for a few more days before the flow weakens and migrates away East leaving the flow split weak and North and South of the UK. It then strengthens late in the period to blow West to east just to the North of Scotland later in Week 2.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure developing to the West of the UK after the weekend and maintaining influence throughout the rest of the period. Low pressure to the East and SE will aid the setup of a cool Northerly flow across the UK next week with jolly chilly nights and sunny spells by day with just a few showers towards the East and SE. The High pressure to the west is shown to edge closer day by day eventually cutting off the cool northerly feed and replacing it with clam conditions in the South. As a result it would become warmer by day and night but with some night fog patches possible. The end of the period sees the High slipping SE but maintaining fine weather across the South while the North becomes breezier under a Westerly flow with some Atlantic rain creeping in at times.
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today also shows High pressure developing West of Ireland from the end of the weekend and remaining influential to the UK from then until almost the end of the period. The positioning of the High in the second week is further to the North sitting across the UK for a time before slipping to the East late on and allowing a more general breakdown in conditions with rain at times to move in from the Atlantic by the end of the period.THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a fairly even split on conditions in two weeks time with almost half still showing some High pressure influence across the South from a centre to the South, SE or SW while the threat of rain and Atlantic winds looks greater this morning for the North and NW in particular.
UKMO UKMO today shows a cool week across the British Isles with the UK sandwiched between High pressure to the West of Scotland and Low pressure over Germany and the continent in general. A NNE flow across the UK should deliver a lot of fine and cool weather with jolly chilly nights but some showers are possible in the East and South at times.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a complex and slow moving warm front across the South of the UK over the coming 72 hours, edging slowly NW then east by Tuesday of next week. Pulses of heavy and thundery rain within it's proximity look probable before the whole system moves away east and allows the setup of a cold northerly flow and with Low pressure quite close to the East for a time further showers are possible but with High pressure to the NW the West and NW in general will become dry if quite cool.
GEM GEM today shows High pressure developing to the West of the UK in the coming days but with Low pressure moving NE across the far SE over the coming days with some thundery rain at times in the South and East. Thereafter the High to the West is shown to agonizingly creep closer in to the west of the UK, never quite making it as a cool North or NE flow across Central and SE Britain is maintained.
NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme with High pressure inching in from the west towards Scotland later in the coming week with the frontal system in the SE to start clearing East fairly early in the period to leave a cool NNE flow for the remainder of the week for most parts.
ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure influence across the UK dominant throughout this morning's run with the positioning always I'm afraid too far West into the Atlantic to give the very best conditions across the UK. For the next few days we have to await the exit of a stubbornly slow moving frontal trough from the SE early next week then all areas fall under the influence of a cool Northerly feed with bright days and the odd shower in the East. Then as a ridge from the High slips South the weather will be dry for all and with time the cool North wind supply is cut off and rather cloudy Atlantic winds but dry weather looks like affecting the UK as they round the Northern flank of the High and move down over the UK in a NW flow.
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from this morning continues to endorse the prospect that the UK could lie under High pressure in 10 days time.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue their theme towards High pressure based weather developing next week from off the Atlantic.31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.2 pts followed by UKMO at 95.9 pts and GFS at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 87.1 pts followed by ECM at 86.6 and GFS at 83.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 62.0 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 43.1 pts to 36.6 pts from GFS.
MY THOUGHTS We have universal support from the models today that a pattern change is finally under way and the NW/SE split in the weather we have seen what seems endlessly of late is disappearing or being reversed for a time at least. Low pressure to the NW is finally being displaced by a rise of pressure over the Eastern Atlantic and while a thundery Low to the SE at first and Low pressure to the East later will not be beneficial to the UK improvements for the NW of the UK especially are going to be quite marked this week. On the negative side the positioning of the High is far from ideal from a UK perspective as it is too far West and aids a very chilly Northerly flow across the UK suppressing temperatures and allowing some daytime showers to affect the East and SE for some considerable while into next week. In the West and NW the best weather will be achieved with sunny days but with jolly chilly nights with rural frosts and mist patches. As we then look further forwards into the second week conditions may improve further with the Northerly flow probably cut off as the High migrates East across the UK delivering rather warmer uppers across the UK with warmer days and nights and still relatively dry conditions for all. In the far reaches of GFS today and hinted at within the clusters a greater chance of the Atlantic coming back into at least the North and West of the UK is shown but that is a long way off and all of the UK could at least see a period of almost totally dry conditions and while temperatures may not be nothing to write home about the farmers's harvest should be able to be completed within the first half of September without too much hindrance from the weather.Next update from 09:00 Sunday Aug 30th 2015
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Model Output discussion 1st September 00z------->
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY SEP 22ND 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery trough of Low pressure will clear SE England this morning followed by a cool NW then West flow with a weak ridge crossing East over the UK followed by another front tomorrow.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow currently cyclonic across the UK before it migrates to the NW later this week and over the weekend. At the same time it dips well South over the Atlantic and returns North to the west of the UK early next week before reverting to a more cyclonic, light and broken pattern late in the period around the UK.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to run with the theme of High pressure developing across the UK from the weekend although on this run it all too quickly gets to the east and NE of the UK allowing pressure to fall over the Atlantic which in turn pushes troughs close to Western Britain before midweek next week which then moves slowly East across the UK. Pressure then builds strongly to the North of the UK in the second week sending Low pressure over and then to the South of the UK in Week 2 and setting up a strong Easterly flow across the South to end the period still with some rain in the South.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is similar but holds the influence of High pressure a little longer before on this run trouble arrives from the SE with a strengthening East wind and showers for a time in the South. High pressure is then shown to reassert it's authority across many areas, again just for a time before more unsettled and cool weather returns this time from the NW at the end of the period.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have shifted today to a much more unsettled outlook likely across the UK once we get to the 14 day time point. Most members show Low pressure in an assortment of locations, all with influence over the UK with only 30% indicating some influence from a ridge close to the South.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure building across Southern Britain and drifting out into the Southern North Sea early next week. With warm uppers aloft and High pressure at this time of year comes the recipe for some cool, misty nights and warm and sunny afternoon's once the mist and low cloud clears.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure building nicely from the SW at the weekend warding off all Atlantic troughs well to the West and NW late in the period.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120
GEM GEM this morning is quite similar to UKMO up to day 6 with High pressure in the Southern North sea at that time point with the UK under fine and settled weather. Fronts do make slow inroads into Western Britain later next week but make little significant progress over the rest of the UK before High pressure reasserts itself to the North of the UK at the end of the run with Easterly winds developing across the South.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows the strong High pressure area developing near SE Britain at the weekend and maintaining it's position well into next week with virtually all of the UK fine and dry with cool misty nights and bright afternoons. Any Atlantic fronts are restricted to the extreme NW corner of the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM this morning is rock solid in delivering better weather across the UK from next weekend as it continues to show rising pressure from Friday culminating in a belt of High pressure stretching across the UK next week with fine and pleasantly warm weather by day once the mist and overnight fog which could be quite extensive at times slowly clears each day.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure stretched across the UK with almost universal support for fine and dry early Autumn weather with fine warm days and cool misty nights.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown held well at arms length and unclear.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 86.6 pts over UKMO at 86.4 pts then GFS at 84.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.2 pts over GFS's 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.3 pts to 33.6 pts from GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
MY THOUGHTS Another day and another day nearer to rather better conditions likely across the UK come the weekend moving forward. We have another two or three days of more changeable weather when Westerly winds continue to bring short spells of rain and more showery conditions across the UK. By Friday pressure rises strongly across all areas from the SW with dry and fine conditions commencing just in time for the weekend. Winds will be light and with increasingly warm uppers aloft had it been July we would be in for some very hot weather. As it is we are still likely to get well above average temperatures in the afternoons but by night cool temperatures under longer nights now will allow the formation of our Autumn peril of fog and if this become extensive enough it may become a devil to shift through some days, lifting into low cloud and suppressing temperatures as a result. However, that is the only negative I can find in an otherwise very pleasant spell coming up which could last quite a while. Of course I am always looking for long term change within the models and while there is some suggestion that a breakdown could develop late in the two week period it is certainly not a given that it will happen and certainly not necessarily in the way that some output shows today. GFS is a little worrying in that field though as all it's output show a return of wind and rain scenarios returning by day 14 backed up with it's clusters but that is the exception and should not be dwelt upon at this range. So lets look forwards to a period of fine and settled weather and fog aside lets hope the Autumn sunshine can bring some impressive early Autumn temperatures to set off the colours of the trees and bring some atmospheric scenes ideal for photographers.
WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.gif
The worse chart of the day today is GFS at T+348hrs as it shows a large and deep low to the SW of the UK and High to the North. The resultant weather over most of the UK would not necessarily be that bad but strong and cool winds with rain would likely affect the South and things could be very different if this chart verified in 4 months time with snow a real possibility for the South.
BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
Charts don't get much better than the ECM T+240hrs chart today as it shows High pressure rock solid over the top of the UK with dry and settled weather for all with mist and fog likely to be an issue at night though. With all the backing of other output it does have a larger than usual chance of verifying than most 10 day range charts.
Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 23rd 2015