Gibby

February 8, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY FEB 8TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Storm 'Imogen' will move slowly away NE later today and the severe gales across the South will steadily ease later though leaving a legacy of strong Westerly winds with showers across most areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will remain around 4000ft across the UK falling a little across Northern areas later with the snow risk level falling to lower elevations in the North and West by tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and very windy with rain or squally showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains very strong over the next 14 days. The flow remains to the South of the UK encouraging Low pressure to centre close to the UK for most of the time. Later in the period the flow moves slightly further North for a time.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today maintains a very unsettled and turbulent period with rain and showers and some hill snow at times through this week. Some snow on lower ground at times could develop over the North at times as Low pressure aims further South than recently with a cold East flow over the North for a time. Then through the second week the weather becomes somewhat less volatile with longer dry spells between the rain bands with temperatures mostly close to average in the South especially.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is also very unsettled with rain and showers around on most days with snow on hills and while gales or even severe gales are likely through Week 1 the theme of a slow transition to less stormy weather is looking possible in the second week. Nevertheless, the weather remains mobile throughout the run with spells of rain and temperatures near average alternating with sunshine and showers and colder conditions with some snow on the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today once again show the Atlantic in total domination of the UK weather in 14 days. Winds all blow from between SW and NW with a bias towards a more unsettled theme rather than a drier one as only a handful of members suggest enough influence from High pressure to the South and SW to have a meaningful effect.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a continuing picture of Low pressure based near or over the UK across the week to come. While the early severe gales die away by midweek fronts associated with the Low pressure will bring further wind and rain later in the week and with some colder air in place this week it looks like some snowfall can be expected on modest hills at times away from the far South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today maintain an unsettled pattern this week though with winds decreasing from current levels. Quiet weather with showers near coasts midweek give way to renewed Low pressure into the SW again by the end of the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows Low pressure maintained across the UK throughout the coming week with rain or showers at times and snow on hills and while winds remain strong they are shown to become less strong after today. Then early next week a marked ridge moves East and settled the weather down for a time with some night frosts but pleasant days before cloud, rain and wind move back down across the North and West of the UK from the NW by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows Westerly winds and unsettled conditions with showers through most of this week with some snow at times on the hills of the North. then over next weekend another storm system is shown to move across from the West bringing spells of strong winds, cold rain and hill snow for many before quietening down again at the very end of the run as a ridge moves in from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows a very unsettled week to come with today's severe gales subsiding leaving a legacy of unstable and cold air across the UK with showers, some heavy and thundery with snow on hills. Then later this week a new deep Low brings renewed gales and rain with possible snowfall for the North. then towards the end of the run a pattern shift towards better weather is shown with a short spell of Northerly winds and snow showers in places ahead of a ridge bringing frost and a return to milder SW winds for many again at least for a time at day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the same theme as recently with Low pressure to the NW and the Azores High at home with a West or NW flow across the UK with rain at times and snow possible on Northern hills at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to maintain volatile and windy Low pressure based conditions across the UK with just slight hints towards Low pressure moving further North later in the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 88.7 pts and GFS at 88.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.0 pts to 64.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 49.9 pts to ECM's 48.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to show a very mixed pattern of weather over the next few weeks with the most stormy weather likely over the next week while in Week 2 things may turn somewhat less volatile with a more traditional Atlantic pattern returning. Currently Storm 'Imogen' is rattling a few panes across the South but this will ease down by tomorrow with the mix of rain and showers continuing for many. Then a quieter midweek period with showers restricted more towards windward coasts is replaced by another deep Low pressure area towards the weekend. This Low looks like travelling ESE across the heart of the UK and could give some significant snowfall to it's North so it's track is crucial on who gets snow and who gets cold rain. However, I don't see this as a major wintry outbreak away from the highest ground of the North and following a colder and more showery period late next weekend when snow could reach the hills of the South as well it looks like a strong ridge could build across the UK for a time with frosty nights but a couple of bright and dry days. Thereafter it is likely that Atlantic depression return but more towards the NW setting up a strong Westerly but milder flow with rain at times for many but less intense weather events in the South and East. That's the way I see it this morning. For those who see snowfall in a big way this morning I would urge caution as there is not a lot of cold air to tap into and cold rain to me looks the more favoured option for much of England and Wales under next weekends storm system though I would happily be proved wrong. thereafter it looks like standard Winter fayre of wind and rain at times under an Atlantic flow.

Next Update Tuesday February 9th 2016 from 09:00

February 8, 2016

It is very local really. While the lightning at nearby Keysham and Bristol was seen here earlier we have had nothing more than a breeze all night and just a splash of rain which has just topped 1mm since midnight. It just shows how sheltered I am here under the Mendips. Had winds been more WNW rather than just South of West things could of been very different here with the winds funnelling from the Bristol Channel along the Eastern side of the Mendips. People round here are saying that the warnings have been overstated but reading the reports on here I think it's a lot of good fortune of local topography and the wind direction rather than a forecasting error.

February 7, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY FEB 7TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A Showery WSW flow will be replaced by an occluded front s crossing east over the UK tonight in association with Storm 'Imogen' moving across Northern areas tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies around 4000ft rising briefly to 5000ft or so for a time tonight ahead of the passage of an occluded front. Snow is likely across Northern hills in particular today and probably again tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and very windy with rain or squally showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains generally very strong over the next two weeks. the main angle of attack from it still remains South of the UK over the next week before the flow eases a little more North for a time across the UK before troughing South again late in the period over the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today maintains a very changeable and sometimes volatile period as successive deep Low pressure areas move across the Atlantic and the UK each bringing it's own spell of gales and rain followed by more showery conditions. Temperatures will remain near average or a little below in the drier and brighter phases between the weather systems and some snowfall can be expected at times mostly on Northern hills but not exclusively so especially later.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is also very unsettled with rain and showers around on most days and while gales or even severe gales are likely through Week 1 the theme of a slow transition to drier conditions at times in the South is shown as Low pressure slowly moves to a more Northerly latitude through the second week with High pressure to the South having at least some influence down here at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show nearly all members with winds between SW and NW over the UK in 14 days with unsettled conditions with rain at times still the main focus of the weather. The degree of extent of High pressure to the South and SW and Low pressure close to the North remains the main focal differences between members.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows another wet and Atlantic driven weather pattern to come again over the coming week with gales or severe gales and heavy rain at times as Low pressure areas continue to move across the Atlantic and over the South of the UK with Wednesday currently the only day which looks like a much quieter if colder and dry day for many

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today also show unsettled conditions this week with multiple troughs and Low pressure areas bringing gales, rain and showers across the UK at times with snow possible especially on Northern hills.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows wet weather the main feature as the UK remains under deep Low pressure areas throughout much of the period with just very short periods between weather systems when the weather may improve slightly from an other wise wet and windy spell with snow at times over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows Westerly winds or gales and spells of rain alternating with showers across the UK with only very short periods of quieter weather in between systems.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows a very unsettled spell to come over the next week with deep Low pressure areas totally dominant over or near the UK with rain or showers at times and snow on hills. The winds will also remain very strong at times though there will be some less windy periods mixed in too when it will be rather cold with some snowfall possible over the hills. The unsettled cycle does appear to break by Day 10 as High pressure steadily builds North through the Atlantic and bringing a cold Northerly across the UK for a time late in the period with wintry showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows a bias towards a NW flow between High pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the NW with the Jet stream flooding SE just to the SW of the UK giving further rain and showers across the UK with snow on hills and temperatures near to average overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to maintain volatile and windy Low pressure based conditions across the UK with just various unsubstantiated escape routes to the pattern hinted at later in the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 88.7 pts and GFS at 88.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.5 pts to 65.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM and GFS tie at 49.7 pts each.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There remains little overall relief from the models this morning in what is becoming the most Atlantic dominated Winter that I have seen for many years. The main difference at the moment is the position of the Jet Stream which has migrated further South recently and allowed deep Low pressure areas to affect the South as much as the North which up until now has seen the worst of the wrath that such storms have thrown at us. This week sees little overall in the change of patterning so we have to expect more of the same I'm afraid with rain and gales still a large feature of the weather. Winds will be a notable feature especially tomorrow over the South as storm 'Imogen' moves across the North and delivers the potential for storm force winds for a time across the South tomorrow before easing later. Thereafter through the week there will be further spells of wind and gales as yet another Low pressure area moves across the UK later in the week with Wednesday looking the only likely window of drier weather between weather systems but even then some showers are expected. the through next weekend at the time that follows further spells of rain and showers look likely but there may be a slow transgression towards less in the way of mobility to the atmosphere with the Jet Stream possibly buckling and breaking to allow pressure to build towards the SW or West which could eventually bring us more settled weather though the precursor to that could be a spell of cold North winds and wintry showers if ECM is to be believed. All in all though the pattern remains volatile and fast moving day to day changes in weather type will remain the focus for some considerable while yet before we might be looking at something at least a little less stormy and potentially disruptive with time. Any notable change towards cold and settled weather still looks a long way off though given the upper air pattern and Jet flow patterns predicted currently.

Next Update Monday February 8th 2016 from 09:00

February 5, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY FEB 5TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild SW flow across the UK will strengthen ahead of a cold front moving SE across the UK today and tonight. Tomorrow a vigorous Low pressure area moves North and NE across the UK with it's troughs delivering periods of rain, gales then showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 5000ft across the UK before falling somewhat across Northern areas later to around 3000-4000ft. This will be sufficient to give rise to wintry showers across the mountains of Scotland tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and very windy with rain or squally showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is strengthening across the Atlantic and then across Southern England and France through the following week. While maintaining much of it's strength it does move back slowly North through the second week to lie across the UK again by the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a potentially stormy spell of weather likely across the UK early next week as the weekend unsettled and rainy weather continues well into next week. Later in the week winds may decrease somewhat while the weather remains unsettled and often wet with sunshine and showers in between with some wintry showers possible over the hills. Then in just over a weeks time a dry interlude of a day or so looks possible before changeable weather returns for all with rain and wind at times, the worst of which looks likely across the North and West this time round.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to it's Operational companion though the drier interlude in the middle of the period looks rather colder and longer lasting on this run with some wintry showers possible near coasts for a time before the milder Atlantic Westerlies return later with rain at times, chiefly over the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a roughly 60/40 split in favour of mild and sometimes wet weather maintained across the UK under Low pressure to the North and NW and High to the SW. The remaining 40 show High pressure close to the SE or East with drier and cooler weather across the UK as a result.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows wet and windy weather to start next week with gales and heavy showers for all before a quieter period midweek is the forerunner to more wind and rain towards the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show deep Low pressure areas affecting the UK over the coming 5 days centred across the UK with troughs affecting all areas with attendant heavy rain and gales and periods of colder weather with squally thundery showers, wintry on hills and possibly thundery near the coasts.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today looks probably the most disturbed of the set this morning with incessant and very deep Low pressure over or near the UK across the whole 10 day period with gales and heavy rain on numerous occasions mixed in with squally, heavy and thundery showers with the risk of snow at times on the hills as colder air occasionally tucks in.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today continues the unsettled and windy theme shown by all output this morning. Low pressure slowly migrates East to end next week out in the North Sea but maintaining a strong grip on the weather across the UK with progressively chillier conditions later as winds turn more towards the NW with some of the precipitation falling as snow on this hills with time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a similar entrenched spell of volatile and windy weather across the UK over the next week with gales or severe gales at times. Spells of heavy rain will alternate with sunshine and squally showers. Later in the run some shift North of the overall pattern could bring slightly drier conditions at times to the South but conditions overall look like remaining quite changeable and often wet.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows an unsettled pattern still across the UK in 10 days with the Jet stream to the South of the UK and Low pressure up to the NW as well as across the UK with Atlantic sourced winds and rain at times still the order of the weather for all by that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to just differ within variations of a theme of continuing wet and windy conditions across the UK for much of the coming two weeks.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.8 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 88.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.7 pts to 65.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.9 pts to 48.7 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Not much change shown within the models today than that shown repetitively over recent days. The main message is 'batten down the hatches' as it looks like we are in for a spell of wet and at times very windy weather with gales and severe gales causing occasional disruption along with likely local flooding from heavy rain. The West looks like clocking up the highest rainfall totals over the next week whereas the strongest winds look like being at their strongest near Western and Southern coasts. Temperatures on the other hand should not present too many problems as they should remain close to average overall although occasional colder incursions behind cold fronts could bring some wintriness in the showers especially over the hills but perhaps more extensively for a time later next week. However, widespread cold related winter hazards do not look like being the main focus for attention over the coming week or so with the rain and wind being by far the most newsworthy features I feel and while there is some hints that after the first week somewhat quieter and maybe chillier conditions might result for a while with the Jet Stream remaining strong and poorly orientated changeable and windy conditions from off the Atlantic remains the most likely position we find ourselves in two weeks from now with perhaps a shift of emphasis of wind and rain more towards the North and West with longer drier interludes across the South and East by then although at this range this is not a definite. There will be no report from me tomorrow but I will be back on Sunday morning with another update.

Next Update Sunday February 7th 2016 from 09:00

February 4, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY FEB 4TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild SW flow is moving NE across the UK with some rain in association with a set of fronts moving NE. Then a cold front will meander SE across the NW with more rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles has risen to near 7000ft today as warm SW winds cross the UK from the Atlantic. The level falls somewhat from tomorrow to nearer 5000ft as a cold front moves SE. Little snow is expected anywhere across the UK today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and very windy with rain or squally showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently taking a breather as a new surge of energy exits Newfoundland on it's way across the Atlantic to cross the South of the UK and France from the weekend and through the remainder of the run with low pressure close by over or near the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a stormy spell of weather likely across the UK later this week and into next week with severe gale or even locally storm force winds and spells of rain followed by showers, heavy, thundery and perhaps wintry in places with time. Then late next week a quieter period seems likely as a ridge crosses east over all areas followed by a return to more changeable, milder and windy conditions with rain at times especially over the North and West.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is virtually identical in theme with gales and heavy rain at times the most common theme over the two weeks with a drier interlude late next week and with a short period when the emphasis of the strongest winds and rain revert to the NW after the ridge before returning to all areas again by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters show a large majority of members maintaining Atlantic Westerlies likely in two weeks time with Low pressure to the NW and High to the SW. 25% of members do show more of a NW'ly flow with a cooler and showery flow down over the UK. No members show anything dramatically cold this morning

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows deep Low pressure areas transferring East across Northern Britain bringing spells of gales and rain followed by colder showery weather with the showers turning increasingly wintry next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a complex deep Low pressure based pattern across the UK with gales and heavy rain bands then showers affecting all of the UK over the weekend and the start of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows wet and very windy weather too throughout the next 10 days with just the chance of a drier day or two as weak ridges between weather systems pass through. Late in the run a hint of something a little colder affecting parts of the North and East of the UK look likely as winds turn ESE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows incessantly windy and unsettled conditions from the weekend and through next week as pressure stays low and winds stay often very strong. Some colder weather is shown next week with some of the rain and showers turning wintry over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the same theme as the rest with a good week to 10 days of deeply unsettled weather with Low pressure areas crossing over the UK through the period with spells of rain and showers for all with some of it turning more and more wintry with time as colder air becomes entrained within the low pressure complex over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows an unsettled pattern still across the UK in 10 days with the Jet stream to the South of the UK and by the angle of Low pressure shown entering the UK from the NW it looks like some members may be suggesting ESE moving Low pressure enhancing the risk of some cold air in the vicinity of the UK at times with some snow possible over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to indicate total Atlantic domination over the period today with maybe some colder air in the mix later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.9 pts to UKMO at 89.6 pts and GFS at 88.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.2 pts to 66.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 51.3 pts to 48.2 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The weather has turned milder again today as we enter another 24-48hr long warm sector of weather across the UK. Some rain and drizzle looks likely for some before things begin to turn more lively from Saturday with probably some of the most volatile weather across the largest swathe of the UK this Winter so far. The Jet Stream bringing this change is on it's way South of the UK and while it again becomes very strong it is going to power up some very deep and active Low pressure areas which look like crossing the UK at times thereafter. Each one of these will bring very heavy rain followed by squally showers and these could be the type that brings everything but the kitchen sink variety with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible as we move through next week. Winds could also be disruptive at times with gale or severe gales at times in locations yet to be determined but all areas are at risk. Then after next week things look only marginally better if at all as hints of a drier and brighter day or two towards next week is still hinted at from some output before the Atlantic powers back in thereafter with the return of wind and rain for many. There is a saying called 'February Fill Dyke' and I have a feeling many a dyke will be filled with heavy rain over the next week or two and flooding issues could be a problem for some through the period with yet again only transient snowfall looking feasible at times. In fact through the next two weeks there is still no sign of a calming of the Jet Stream to a state that can break us out of this mobile pattern and something more High pressure based and colder let alone increasing any risk of significant frost or snowfall.

Next Update Friday February 5th 2016 from 09:00

February 3, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY FEB 3RD 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold NW flow across the UK will weaken through the day as a ridge of High pressure crosses East over the UK tonight followed by a couple of warm frontal systems tomorrow and a mild West then SW flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft to begin the day rising later today and tonight as milder uppers spread in from the SW taking the freezing level up to 5500ft across the North and as high as 7000ft across the South tomorrow. Some snowfall is likely over the mountains of the North tonight before turning to rain later tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will ridge across the UK today before settling into a strong and vigorous flow across the South of Britain and France later this weekend and next week. This continues for some considerable time before the flow inches a little further North later, but every bit as strong and still blowing across the UK in two weeks time.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very volatile period of weather to come over the UK as active Low pressure areas crossing the heart of the UK deliver rain, gales and potentially stormy conditions on occasion through the next 10 days with temperatures up and down like a yo-yo as each system passes. The end of the run sees us returning to a point where we have been all Winter with Low pressure to the North and High to the South with mild SW winds and further rain at times especially by then across the North and West.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run follows a similar route with strong winds and rain featuring regularly over the next week to 10 days with some snow on Northern hills at times as colder air tucks in at times from the NW. The pattern changes are small towards the end of the run but do feature a hint of some colder air for a time before milder Westerly winds return at the end of the period in Westerly winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters were not available at the time of issue of my report today.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows deep Low pressure moving in across Scotland over the weekend and start to next week with strong to gale Westerly winds and squally and thundery showers embracing all Western and Southern coasts and hills, perhaps wintry on the hills and prolonged too all this following a spell of mild and eventually wet conditions leading up to the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today continue to show the unsettled theme continuing as further troughs, both warm and cold cross the UK from the West bringing rain at times and strong winds at times especially over the weekend. With deep Low pressure moving in pressure is shown to fall quickly with more complex troughing over the UK maintaining the very unsettled and windy theme continuing well into next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows a wet and very windy week to come with gales and heavy rain at times from the weekend across all areas with gale or severe gales at times for all. In between the rain bands colder showery conditions will replace the rain falling as snow over the hills at times. Then towards the end of next week a cold Northerly flow develops as pressure builds North over the Atlantic and the previous deep UK based Low pressure systems move away to the East. This would bring snow showers South to all areas with the return of frost at nights under clear skies in shelter of the still brisk north wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also continues the windy and very volatile Low pressure based pattern with spells of heavy rain and showers crossing the UK on regular occasions over the next week with temperatures above average at first, falling somewhat later as colder air mixes into the airflows across the UK with some wintry showers over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very windy and wet at times across all areas of the UK as Low pressure moves quickly East across Northern Britain with a strong to gale Westerly flow on it's Southern flank. The brighter air behind rain-bands will bring showers which could turn wintry over the hills at times. Later in the run signs of pressure rising again to the South and a less vigorous Westerly flow becoming more established looks possible from this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates that things may be reverting to a less vigorous Westerly flow across the UK in 10 days time as the Jet stream begins to feed further North towards the UK as High pressure builds to the South and Low pressure displaces further to the NW too off Southern Greenland and Iceland with High pressure near the Azores and Iberia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to indicate total Atlantic domination over the period today perhaps weakening in volatility later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.0 pts to UKMO at 89.6 pts and GFS at 88.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.3 pts to 66.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.6 pts to 47.6 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS No real changes in the overall message from the models this morning though if I had to be picky I would say that they look overall somewhat less concerning that those that were shown yesterday and also now indicate a trend towards a less vigorous pattern developing later as pressure rises over the UK somewhat. For the here and now today's cold theme changes to mild tomorrow and Friday with mild SW winds bringing rain and drizzle in from the West tomorrow and Friday. Then through the weekend things turn distinctly unsettled and windy with gale or severe gales at times and heavy rain or showers affecting all areas. Things do turn colder with time too with showers turning wintry at times over the hills next week. The pattern then remains locked in this very windy and at times cool phase with boisterous showers which could fall as anything at times with some longer periods of rain too almost anywhere. Then as we move out of the first week and into the second week things do seem to change slightly towards less stormy and a more changeable and standard pattern as High pressure seems themed again back towards the South of the UK with Low pressure further North. While some rain still seems likely for all then too the North and West look like seeing more of this by then while the South and East see somewhat drier weather at times. Temperatures look like returning towards nearer average or a little above in the South if the High pressure to the South positions itself favourably enough. Finally today there looks very little evidence of more settled or colder weather across the UK turning up on a widespread or long lasting period over the coming two weeks, that is if this morning's output is to be used in evidence so for those wanting change in this locked Winter pattern the hunt for cold continues today.

Next Update Thursday February 4th 2016 from 09:00

February 2, 2016

Just an observation but all this talk and seeking cold misses the potential severity of the weather that lies ahead. While the models all point to a period of damaging winds and heavy rain it hardly gets a mention here lost within the tedious hunt for a flake of snow. It's model output discussion and every weather type should be discussed in equal measure. This is the UK and cold is and always has been relatively rare even in Winter and with such a powerful Jet Stream at the moment some very interesting storm systems that could cause major disruption late in the weekend and early next week should mean there be more important things to discuss rather than snow. If these major storm systems are still shown in a couple of days expect early warnings to be issued and certainly not just for the North.

February 2, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY FEB 2ND 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The UK will see rising pressure today as a colder NW flow establishes across the UK for a time with a trough slipping South across the UK later with an increased risk of showers on it's passage. A ridge of High pressure then crosses East over the UK tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 4000ft across many areas of the UK today falling a little further towards 2000ft in the North. Snow showers will give some accumulations again today over Northern mountains.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The message from the Jet Stream today shows the flow continuing to be strong over the next few weeks. The current passage across the UK on a West to East basis sinks South over the weekend and remains quite strong focused towards France before a slow migration North of the flow to the UK again in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuation of the alternating and Low pressure based pattern of weather the UK has seen for most of this Winter with mild and damp weather with rain at times alternating with colder and more showery conditions with some wintry showers over the hills. The winds could be particularly strong and disruptive for a time early next week as deep Low pressure areas cross directly East over the UK. The pattern changes little in the second week with further rain at times with some milder periods once more especially across the South and still windy at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run looks very similar today to the Operational Run with rain and gales alternating with colder showery spells. By the end of the second week things look likely to have or likely to change little with further West winds, rain and showers at times for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters show some differences today though a sizeable 60% still show a likely West or NW flow across the UK with Low pressure close by to the North or NE with rain and showers in average temperatures. A notable 40% of members show High pressure much closer to the SE of the UK with dry and bright weather with light SW winds for many should this verify.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an increasingly stormy period of weather developing over the weekend as deep Low pressure areas driven by a strong Jet stream cross the UK with severe gales, heavy rain and eventually squally and perhaps wintry showers by the start of next week. Before that happens though a period of mild and damp but still windy conditions look likely for many from Thursday to Saturday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today continue to show the unsettled theme continuing as further troughs, both warm and cold cross the UK from the West bringing rain at times and strong winds at times. Over the weekend pressure is shown to fall quickly with more complex troughing over the UK maintaining the very unsettled and windy theme.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM too shows wet and very windy and potentially stormy conditions developing later in the weekend and start to next week. Outside of those weather events short drier and colder periods of weather are possible with showers turning wintry over the hills and the odd night frost. Overall though the end of the run looks as disturbed as ever with the hint of colder conditions developing more widely by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is probably the least stormy looking of the big model runs today. Nevertheless it too brings much lower pressure to the South than has been the case of late and allowing all areas to be at risk of heavy rain and/or squally showers from the weekend and through the early to middle part of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very stormy after the weekend with some potentially disruptive weather developing across the UK and not this time just in the North. Low pressure will be powered by a strong Jet Stream and cross the heart of the UK with severe gale or storm force winds and heavy rain followed by showers occurring on a couple of occasions next week with the colder air tucked behind the depressions turning some of the showers wintry over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates good support for Low pressure to lie close to the UK possibly to the NE with the Jet stream a long way South. Pressure is hinted at rising towards Greenland, at least a little and this could at least provide a catalyst for somewhat colder weather to encroach down across the UK from the North at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are in unison today in maintaining very volatile and potentially stormy conditions next week for all of the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.0 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 89.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.5 pts to 67.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.4 pts to 48.0 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS I think the worrying theme of this morning's output is the cross model agreement that the UK could see a period of stormy weather at some stage late in the weekend and early next week. It looks that named storms are likely to grace the weather forecasts again by the weekend and this time their impacts could have far more wide reaching effects especially over the South of the UK. Up until the weekend we have another warm sector to pass through with mild and damp period of windy weather over Thursday and Friday. Then a cold front crossing East on Saturday will introduce the very unsettled spell with gales and heavy rain and showers moving West to East across the UK at the weekend. Intense Low pressure areas then look set on a course much further South than lately with all areas at risk of widespread gales or even storm force winds and heavy rain mixed with short colder periods with squally and possibly thundery showers with snow on the hills. Thereafter and towards the second week of the output changes look small with plenty more opportunity for further stormy spells with rain and strong winds likely and just short colder brighter periods as the Jet Stream seems unrelenting in both strength and positioning to prevent Low pressure from crashing into the UK from the Atlantic. So some very interesting weather to come if it's volatile and disruptive weather you like but I'm afraid there is not too much cheer for those looking for cold and frosty weather with snow although I still maintain the colder uppers at times next week especially could produce the odd snowfall almost anywhere across the UK sometime and somewhere.

Next Update Wednesday February 3rd 2016 from 09:00

February 1, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY FEB 1ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Storm Henry will move East to the North of Scotland over the next 24-36 hours pushing another spell of storm force Westerly winds across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England tonight and tomorrow with a showery airflow replacing the mild and damp weather behind a cold front moving SE today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 10000ft across Southern England before falling behind a cold front later to around 4000ft for most parts by tomorrow. Snow showers and blizzards will return to the Scottish mountains tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains very strong across the Atlantic over the coming two weeks. The flow currently blowing East across the UK troughs further South later this week and next before ridging North later next week and then settling NW of the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a new month but pretty much a similar picture over the next few weeks with Low pressure largely ruling the airflows across the UK with Westerly gales and spells of rain and showers, which turn wintry at times as colder air feeds in. Through next week Low pressure crosses on more Southerly latitudes for a time with heavy rain or wintry showers almost anywhere before High pressure finally is shown to build in at the end of the second week with dry and frosty weather before a milder SW flow with some rain feeds back into NW Britain at the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run broadly follows that of the Operational with wet and wild the theme of much of the weather expected over the next couple of weeks. High pressure also builds in later on through the second week on this run too with cold and frosty weather following a day or two of wintry showers with the far NW only seeing rain then by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters show a very similar pattern at day 14 today with winds from a Westerly source with High pressure down to the SW and Low pressure up to the NW of the UK in various guises delivering rain and showers at times to all parts of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows westerly winds through the working days of this week with rain at times in very strong winds. Though cooler at times some milder spells are still likely across the South. Through the weekend Low pressure will enhance further with cyclonic winds across the UK with further rain at times or heavy thundery showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today continue to show changeable conditions as various warm and cold fronts pass over throughou this week with mild and damp periods alternating with cooler and brighter if windy weather with a sunshine and shower mix with snow on hills of the North

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning offers no relief either from the wild weather of late with further spells of rain and gales and wintry showers in between. Later in the run the model continues to portray deep Low pressure even closer to or across the UK with further strong winds, rain and showers with snow on hills across the UK..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows no changes either to the unsettled and windy theme as further Low pressure areas dominate the UK with spells of wind and rain mixed with colder brighter weather with showers, wintry and thundery in places later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very much the same in theme as it has for days now with Low pressure streaming across the Atlantic on a collision course with the UK delivering spells of rain followed by more showery spells when some snow can be expected across the hills of the North. Before that happens though this week sees a lot of strong Westerly winds with alternating mild/colder periods with damp weather replaced by a spell of colder and more showery weather tomorrow and Wednesday before the mild air returns NE later in the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates good support for many members showing a Low pressure based pattern across the UK at Day 10 with Low pressure close to the North or over the North with little sign of either cold or settled weather across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are in unison today in maintaining very volatile and Low pressure based conditions remaining for the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.0 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 88.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.3 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.5 pts to 48.0 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS After a few days off from the model world I though I might return this morning and fine the weekend has delivered some longer term changes in the pattern of synoptics across the UK but alas no is the answer to that one as all models continue to paint a very volatile Jet stream and resultant Low pressure close to or across the UK for much of the upcoming two weeks. For the working part of this week Westerly winds remain strong with severe gales in association with Henry over the next 36 hours across the North. The current mild and damp conditions in the South should dissolve for a day or two as colder showery air moves South later today and last through into Wednesday with some snow on Northern hills. Then by Thursday another large warm sector moves up across the UK from the SW returning mild, damp or even wet conditions later in the week. Then from the weekend on all models still show Low pressure areas taking a much more Southerly route across the UK than of late with gales and wet weather in equal measure almost anywhere and while no cold weather looks likely some snow is expected over the higher ground on occasion with the incidence of some very heavy and thunder showers almost anywhere very likely between the rain-bands next week. The only faint light on the horizon is offered by GFS this morning which in it's latter stages shows High pressure making a welcome return to our shores with a temporary spell at least of clearer and colder frosty weather right at the end of the forecast period. So there you have it not much else to say about the output this morning with Winter remaining elusive by it's absence in the real world this morning if it's widespread cold and snowfall you seek.

Next Update Tuesday February 2nd 2016 from 09:00

January 29, 2016

11 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

Upper t850 temps across most of the models are not very supportive of anything exceptional here in the south the south west and south east very little in the way of blocking showing.

t850 for the southern half of the U.K. Really needs to be at or around -6 snow for southern areas from a nw flow is rare arctic source air is much better but even this does not always favour this unless we get a low front sweeping south.

most certainly going to be wintry next week and the weekend so Midlands north Northern Ireland Scotland will do well winter is arriving here for sure but residual pv over Canada and Azores high still a force to be reckoned with along the southern half of the U.K.

also other areas have the warm sector issues to think about although further north the better.

still debatable whether winter will arrive in the south southeast and southwest.

we have a split vortex can the strat warming beef up a bit to allow blocking I'm not overly enthusiastic about residual vortex and the strength of the vortex along with a powerful jet.

2010 was so different weak vortex blocking rampant

so I'm not overly optimistic

While I agree with the above it is my experience when pressure is so very low in Winter surprise weather events including snowfall can crop up at short notice and where you might otherwise least expect it under less deep Low pressure. With such volatility aloft and pressure as low as 970-960mbs almost anything can fall from the sky given the time of year it is though I must also add it is unlikely that anything long lasting on the ground would be likely away from higher ground further North. The next few weeks in my eyes are very interesting to say the least and you may be surprised.

January 29, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 29TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Storm Gertrude is passing NE close to NW Scotland and pushing troughs East and South across the British Isles. Severe gale or storm force winds over the North will subside later today as the fronts become slow moving for a time across Southern England tonight reinvigorating for a time before clearing all areas tomorrow and leaving a cold WNW flow for all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 3000-4000ft across Scotland and 7000ft over Southern Britain. The level will fall everywhere over the next 24 hours to range from under 2000ft in the North and 3000ft in the South. Snow showers will be frequent over the hills of the North tonight and tomorrow will appreciable falls and potential blizzards over the Cairngorns for a time tonight

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains very strong across the Atlantic over the complete two week period. It's positioning lies across the UK for the next 3-4 days before a change of orientation later takes it on a more SE course towards the South of the UK leaving the UK in or on the western flank of a deep trough in the flow later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows continued disturbed and often very windy weather with severe gales at times, bands of heavy rain and wintry showers all driven in with association of repetitive deep Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic close to or over the North of the UK with just brief ridges of High pressure giving short drier and brighter interludes with a frost now and again. Some snowfall is likely at times across the North and maybe on the hills of the South too at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run broadly follows that of the Operational with wet and wild the theme of much of the weather expected over the next couple of weeks. Slight changes are indicated very late in the run as High pressure builds towards Scandinavia finally blocking the passage of Low pressure to the East and splitting the flow North and South leaving the UK in quieter and benign conditions by day 15.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters show a lot of range this morning at day 14. The common theme is the loss of High pressure to the South and placing it well out in the Atlantic West of the Azores. Winds are shown between West and NW from most members with gales and spells of rain and wintry showers likely with wintry showers and rather cold conditions for many. Some extremes suggest severe gales with a sizeable cluster showing Low pressure to the SE and a North or NE flow across the UK with High pressure out in the mid Atlantic.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows unsettled conditions continuing through next week with another stormy day on Monday in strong to severe gale WNW winds and rain then wintry showers, a theme looking like being repeated further later in the week with just the briefest of drier interludes too especially in the South. Temperatures will be fairly academic in the wind but should range from near average to rather cold at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show series of troughs crossing the UK from the West through the period with alternating wet and windy spells with sunshine and showers, wintry on hills. Last night's release shown High pressure close to the SW indicated on last night's 96hr chart, this has been modified on today's 84hr chart reducing the risk of a drier spell midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning offers no relief either from the wild weather of late with further spells of rain and gales and wintry showers in between. Later in the run it winds up deep Low pressure in the vicinity of the UK which is shown in no hurry to leave our shores all the time maintaining wet and windy weather with showers as well, wintry on hill as the weather turns rather cold at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the wet and windy spell continuing with severe gales at times early in the period. Later next week Low pressure is expected to realign nearer to the UK, indeed over us for the most parts with further rain or perhaps snow in places as colder air seeps South within the flow of this and other depressions late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows very unsettled weather across all parts of the UK over the next 10 days, deepening further later in the period as very deep Low pressure anchors across the UK with lots of rain and thundery and wintry showers commonplace a week or so from now. Severe gale or even storm force winds early in the period may give way somewhat later as the Low centre's become more UK placed but colder air later could well increase the risk of some snowfall almost anywhere in showery form.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates good support for many members showing a similar pattern to that of the operational at the 10 day time point with very unsettled and windy weather looking the most likely set-up with Low pressure close by or over the UK and the winds still predominating from a Westerly point but based from a more Northerly source than lately especially for the South of the UK so possibly rather colder for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are in unison today in maintaining very volatile and Low pressure based conditions remaining for the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.9 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 88.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.2 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.4 pts to 49.5 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The model output this morning does look quite troubling for those folks that don't like severe weather events because it looks likely that all parts of the UK could experience severe weather of one sort or another over the coming two weeks. Right now some very severe winds are buffeting the North of Scotland with lesser effects further South too as storm Gertrude passes by to the North. Then after a brief rest tomorrow and rain on Sunday a repeat performance of severe gales looks likely on Monday. The culprit of all this wild weather is of course the Jet stream which is currently remarkably strong 40000ft above our heads and until that eases changes will be small. Later next week changes do look likely but it is debateable whether it will mean better weather for us in the UK. It does look like the flow will dip South of the UK as well as turning on a more NW to SE course. This will allow pressure to fall across the UK to very low levels and it is likely that from late next week on Low pressure will lie across the UK with further spells of rain and showers. With this new positioning of Low pressure and a Jet stream by then to the South there is a strong chance that things will turn generally colder and some of the precipitation could fall as snow especially on hills and not just in the North. So there really is an awful lot going on above our heads over the next few weeks and the weather we receive as a result is far from unexciting for weather enthusiasts. So it's a case of batten down the hatches for some weather disruption over the next few weeks be it from rain, gales or snow, thunder, lightning and hail it's all possible and it's best not to get hung up on day to day details at the moment and while I might not be offering snow armageddon this morning I wouldn't be surprised that given a week or so a surprise fall of snow could occur almost anywhere. I'm taking a day off tomorrow so I will be back on Sunday with another look at where the weather takes us in the following two weeks.

Next Update Sunday January 31st 2016 from 09:00

January 28, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY JAN 28TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strengthening WSW flow will develop across the UK today and tonight in association with a very deep depression crossing NE to the NW of Scotland and pushing troughs East and South down across the UK later today and tonight becoming slow moving across the South tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles starts the day at around 2000ft with some snowfall in the form of frequent showers across the North. The free\ing level then rises towards 7000ft across the South of England tonight and tomorrow..

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow continuing to dominate the weather across the UK over the next few weeks as it remains strong throughout and blowing West to East across the UK for much of the time with a period of the second week when the flow troughs across the UK with the main portion of the flow South of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows unsettled and often windy weather persisting across many parts of the UK over the next few weeks. In the first week milder spells alternating with some short colder polar maritime blasts of showery air intervene with the milder rainy periods. Then in the second week the theme moves towards longer colder periods with showers or rain or snow in places especially over the North with shorter mild, wet and windy periods with gales. Amounts of dry weather remain restricted to weak and fast moving ridges of High pressure moving across the UK from the SW.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today shows unsettled and very windy weather too with rain at times under the same synoptic pattern as the Operational Run. In the second week the Control Run does indicate that Low pressure areas take more of a direct hit across the UK moving in an ESE direction and digging cold air down across the UK with the rain and showers turning to snow at times in places with some night frosts at times where skies clear and the winds fall briefly lighter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters show a strong and almost universal commitment to High pressure well to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with the UK lying under a NW flow of varying degrees with gales in places and spells of rain and more importantly colder air from more Northern latitudes than of late bringing the risk of some wintry weather across the UK at times.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows colder weather developing next week after a weekend of gales and heavy rain in places especially over Sunday and Monday. The colder weather when it arrives looks like bringing a short spell at least of wintry showers to all areas towards the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a plethora of troughs crossing the UK over the 5 day period. Various cold fronts at the start of the weekend bring rain and then colder conditions with showers turning wintry with warm fronts then struggling NE over Southern Britain with rain and snow on the leading edge late in the weekend with severe gales returning at the start of next week with a continues mix of rain and showers with snow on Northern hills.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning continues to project very unsettled conditions throughout the next 10 days with gales and rain at times. A drier and quieter interlude is indicated towards the middle of next week when it turns colder with some wintry showers and frost before a potentially stormy and wet period develops later next week as Low pressure parks directly over the UK on it's journey slowly East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows continuing wet and windy weather at times and although some milder spells remain next week looks generally somewhat colder with a drier interlude possible towards midweek before wet and windy conditions return later next week as Low pressure moves East across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows very windy weather for the next 4-5 days with gales and heavy rain at times especially across the North and West where some colder interludes with wintry showers look possible. Towards the middle of next week this model too shows a quieter interlude with dry, bright conditions for 24-48hrs with frost at night as High pressure moves East close to the South before things go back downhill again late next week and through the second weekend with rain and gales moving East in association with Low pressure. With colder air entrained across the UK late next week some snowfall is expected from this set-up especially over the North but perhaps the South too by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today continues to deepen the trough likely to lie across the UK in 10 days time. The main of the pack would indicate a variety of options of Low pressure likely over the UK with the Jet stream a long way South with a mixture of rain and showers likely almost anywhere with some cold weather and snow over the hills too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning show continues unsettled weather with the risk of somewhat colder conditions later shown across the models today.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 88.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.8 pts to 67.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.4 pts to 48.6 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Though the model output this morning is not without interest for all weather lovers the main emphasis remains on the unsettled and often windy nature of our Winter weather over anything else shown again today. In the upcoming days the weather will likely be making headlines due to the strength of the wind and rainfall amounts again likely to affect the sensitive areas of the NW yet again tomorrow. Temperatures will be average to mild especially over the South through the second half of the weekend as another warm sector moves NE. Through next week the main message is that there will be further rain and showers early in the week before most output shows at least a short spell of quieter conditions around midweek when some night frosts are likely. Then later in the week renewed Low pressure from off the Atlantic looks like moving into the UK on more Southerly latitudes than recently as the Jet stream moves further South than currently. As well as the inevitable strong winds and rain that system will bring colder air will also be present in close proximity or over the UK and some of that rain may well turn to snow, more likely over the North but maybe the South too but it all looks a knife edge situation at this range and to bring anything noteworthy in terms of wintry weather the models will have to amplify the pattern more than is currently shown as I feel it could all be swept away by a maintained strong and volatile Jet flow. Nevertheless, it does hold something for cold weather fans to hang their hats on while the rest of folks remain more concerned on the amounts of rain and strong winds still to come over the next week. Leaving all else aside this morning there remains little meaningful High pressure shown within the outputs this morning maintaining this Winter as being another one of those most Low pressure based Winters when weather pattern variances are rare and short-lived.

Next Update Friday January 29th 2016 from 09:00

January 27, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY JAN 27TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A series of fronts will move slowly SE across the South and East of the UK today with a strong and mild SW flow ahead of them. Once passed a colder and slacker flow arrives under a ridge of High pressure before a strong WSW flow returns to the North and West later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges between 8000ft over the SE of England to just 1500ft across Scotland where snowfall has occurred and will continue in showery form today. In the South the freezing level will fall to around 4000ft for a time tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow continuing to dominate the weather across the UK over the next few weeks as it remains strong throughout and blowing West to East across the UK for much of the time with small undulations both North and South while remaining between the confines of 50-55 deg North if the Equator.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuing period of very volatile weather across the UK alternating between wet and very windy conditions mixed with colder brighter weather with showers, wintry at times. Low pressure will be maintained to the North and High to the South through the first week. Temperatures will range between somewhat mild and rather cold as more showery air crosses over at times with the theme of particularly stormy weather shown at times in the second week for all as the axis of Low pressure moves further South than in the first week.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today shows unsettled and very windy weather too with rain at times under the same synoptic pattern as the Operational Run although for a time in the second week High pressure closer to the South offers another spell of very mild if windy SW winds with rain slow moving across the Northwest before swinging SE again into a more mobile pattern later on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters show a unanimous theme of winds from a West or NW source in two weeks time, still strong and with enough influence from Low pressure to the North and NW to ensure further rain and showers at times for all areas in fluctuating temperatures but never desperately cold.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows continuing Westerly winds and spells of rain alternating with colder and more showery interludes with some snow in the North especially later as the Low complex drifts towards Scandinavia in winds which swing more towards the NW ahead of a ridge of High pressure moving in from the West on Day 6.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show plenty of troughs crossing the UK in an often strong and blustery wind from the West. Temperatures will range between more often mild in the South and rather colder in the North with all areas seeing rain at times as both warm and cold fronts continue to affect all parts of the UK at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also maintains Atlantic domination in the weather over the UK through the next 10 days with further spells of rain at times in strong Westerly winds. On this run there is a more definitive period of quieter and colder weather towards the middle of next week as a strong ridge crosses East before wet and windy weather returns from the West by the end of the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows a volatile and windy spell of weather with spells of rain and strong winds with colder more showery conditions moving down from the NW by the middle of next week as a weak ridge pushes North into the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today will raise a few eyebrows within the cold lovers fraternity today as the current wet and windy weather carries on for another week before a marked cold snap with snow showers move South across the UK on the rear of a depression exiting the North Sea towards the middle of next week. The following ridge brings frosty weather for a time before Low pressure on a much more Southerly track at Day 10 throws up a heady mix of rain, sleet and snow to the South of the UK by the end of next week in temperatures below average for all by then.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart must have little support from it's other members as the Mean Chart for 10 days today illustrates a lot of Low pressure over or near to the NW of the UK with the Jet Stream still strong but well South of the UK with rain and showers for all and cold enough for snow too at times on the hills despite a general Westerly flow being maintained.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to endorse the trend shown yesterday of the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards colder conditions later as Low pressure and the Jet Stream drift somewhat further South than currently.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.4 pts to GFS and UKMO at 88.6 pts each. Then at 8 Days ECM has taken over the leading spot from GFS with 67.7 pts to 67.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.8 pts to 48.3 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS More variation of the same pattern from the models today as the UK continues to be pummelled by a very strong Jet Stream crossing the Atlantic and crashing into the UK. All areas continue to be at risk of more rain, possibly disruptive at times especially over upland areas of the West and North. While as always there will be some areas that fair rather better than others with the South and East seeing the best of any drier and brighter periods. While temperatures overall should not present widespread problems in between weather systems some colder air may tuck in sufficient to give rise to a slight frost and indeed some wintry showers over the hills. Looking into the second week the models play around with different evolutions still based around an overall potentially wet and windy theme. the main thoughts are that if anything Low pressure will dig even deeper into the UK with more cold air entrained within the depressions airflows over the UK with more in the way of snow on hills at times. The ECM Operational at the end of it's run shows hints of something quite wintry late on and although a little isolated in it's projections shows what can happen when the Jet Stream moves South of the UK as it's predicted to do later next week. So while I still can't offer any particularly cold winter weather again this morning the model runs are far from boring and while rain, strong winds and fluctuating temperatures remain the theme for the foreseeable I think there is enough support for the elements to throw up at least the chance of a snowy surprise here and there longer term especially over the higher ground.

Next Update Thursday January 28th 2016 from 09:00

January 26, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY JAN 26TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep depression is moving NE near to the NW of Scotland pushing troughs quickly East and more slowly South becoming slow moving over Southern England later while a new trough crosses East over the North tomorrow before it too moves South across Southern Britain followed by a colder and more showery WNW flow late tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges between 8000ft over the SE of England falling to 4000ft over Scotland and Northern England and Ireland tomorrow. Some snowfall can be expected across Northern mountains tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild especially at first but some colder spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow blowing NE across the UK over the coming days before strengthening further into a West to East corridor across the UK by the weekend. The flow then becomes somewhat less strong for a time next week when it appears more undulating briefly before it strengthens again at a further South latitude at around 50deg North late in the period still travelling West to East.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuing period of very volatile weather across the UK alternating between wet and very windy conditions mixed with colder brighter weather with showers, wintry at times. The worst of the weather seems to be for the rest of this week and again towards the end of the period while there may be less wind and rain for a time, especially across the South next week when High pressure is shown to move in close to the South of the UK for a time.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is similar in type to the Operational Run though more disruption between Low pressure areas is shown over the second week when things turn altogether colder at times with the risk of more wintry precipitation very much greater then as cold air gets and not just in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The most depressing message from the Ensemble pack this morning is that all the clusters suggest unsettled and windy weather still very present across the UK in 14 days. There is a stronger consensus though that colder air from the NW is much more representative within the clusters this morning.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a very windy and potentially stormy period at times as strong westerly winds across the UK with low pressure close to the North. There is a marked colder snap shown too this morning towards the weekend with Wintry showers coming all the way down to sea level for a time at the weekend almost anywhere must mostly towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show plenty of troughs sometimes slow moving across the South at first and bringing spells of rain, heavy and prolonged in places and interrupted by rather colder spells in the North with showers, turning wintry at times over the hills with a repeat process of tomorrows weather system looking likely again on Friday before colder air reaches all parts with showers turning wintry for all areas at times over the hills to start the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also maintains Atlantic domination in the weather over the UK through the next 10 days with repetitive spells of rain and strong winds alternating with relatively short colder spells, these especially but not exclusively over the North where wintry showers are likely between rain bands. The pattern looks largely unchanged at Day 10.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows a volatile and windy spell of weather with spells of rain and strong winds with colder showery spells in between especially later in the run and in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very disturbed again this morning with wet and windy conditions frequently over the next 10 days culminating at Day 10 with quite a vicious storm approaching the NW. In between the wet and windy spells remain short periods of brighter and more showery spells when wintry showers may affect the higher ground at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the main vortex of Low pressure close to Scotland with westerly winds across the UK ensuring by far the biggest message retained as more rain and strong winds at times for all with temperatures sliding down somewhat as the UK lies on the colder side of the Jet Stream by then

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards colder conditions later as Low pressure and the Jet Stream drift somewhat further South than currently.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.3 pts to GFS and UKMO at 88.5 pts each. Then at 8 Days ECM has taken over the leading spot from GFS with 67.0 pts to 66.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.1 pts to 48.1 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Another day and another day of unrelenting output that says the Atlantic is in total domination of our little patch of the world again this morning. With the day to day details largely irrelevant all that can be said is that all areas of the UK will endure many more spells of wet and windy weather across the next few weeks. If anything this morning the rise of pressure expected towards the South of the UK later next week shown in yesterday's output has been largely removed this morning and the chance of more deep depression running on a slightly more Southerly latitude looks very possible this morning. This would of course mean more rain but could also mean that colder air would be injected into the airflows across the UK at times with snow becoming very possible at times especially in the North and maybe hills of the South too. If I look longer term I am still waiting for cross model support for the anticipated pressure rise across the Atlantic to show it's hand in the extended outlooks and GFS do show some disruption to the stormy spell later in Week 2 but a lot of expansion on this theme will have to be shown in the upcoming runs before I look at this with much conviction. Conversely with ECM in rampant mood towards continued wet and windy weather in 10 days time it maybe a while yet before we can look forwards to anything reliably colder, drier and more wintry.

Next Update Wednesday January 27th 2016 from 09:00

January 25, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY JAN 25TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a more vigorous Low pressure area moving past the NW of Scotland tomorrow and accompanied by a series of troughs across all areas as well tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles begins close to 10000ft today falling behind a cold front to nearer 5000ft and then rising again through tomorrow as milder SW winds return. Little if any significant snow is expected across the UK today or tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild especially at first but some colder spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow remaining strong or very strong over the next few weeks. It's direction will settle West to East across the UK within the next few days, with a very strong core across Scotland for a time next weekend before the flow remains in situ if slightly weaker next week and then right at the end turning to a more Northerly latitude for a time before turning cyclonic and weak near the West of the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show Westerly winds across the UK, strong at times and bringing spells of rain and showers through much of the period. Some shorter colder spells with showers, wintry on hills remains likely but no sustained cold weather is shown. The weather changes type at the end of the second week as High pressure moves into the UK from the South and SW settling things down with frost and fog at night.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is very similar to the Operational in theme today with alternating spells of wind and rain or showers at times, wintry on hills especially in the North. Then on this run too High pressure is shown to build strongly across the UK at the end of Week 2 with colder weather but dry weather too with frost and fog becoming much more prevalent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are showing the greatest chance being for winds blowing from a West or NW direction with High pressure down to the SW. Rain or showers and snow on hills look very likely for many but some of the clusters show High pressure closer in to the UK either from the South or West with attendant drier conditions. It is though just a 40% group who suggest this pattern with the greatest group supporting High pressure fiurther out to the SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a very windy and relatively mild working week with spells of rain, heavy and prolonged at times especially tomorrow and again towards Friday. Then through the weekend a colder interlude will bring wintry showers to many even on the hills of the South for a time in a blustery NW wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show plenty of troughs sometimes slow moving across the South and bringing spells of rain, heavy and prolonged in places and interrupted by rather colder spells in the North with showers, turning wintry at times over the hills with a repeat process of tomorrows weather system looking likely again on Friday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also maintains Atlantic domination in the weather over the UK through the next 10 days with repetitive spells of rain and strong winds alternating with relatively short colder spells, these especially over the North where wintry showers are likely between rain bands. The pattern looks largely unchanged at Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows a flat pattern with strong Westerly winds throughout the coming week with fronts moving quickly East in the flow, each delivering a sometimes heavy spell of rain with brief periods of showers and colder interludes in between.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM today looks very mobile yet again with details largely irrelevant in the otherwise mix of spells of rain and showers with temperatures fluctuating from just above to just below average in the North at times. Strong winds this week moderate somewhat next week as the influence of High pressure to the South attempts to make more influence on at least the South of the UK later in an otherwise continuing Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the main vortex of Low pressure having shifted across to Scandinavia with an indication of less Low pressure to the NW and more High pressure down to the South. The main theme of the chart does still suggest Westerly winds with rain or showers at times though with no real pressure shown from either the cold to the North or mild from the South to change the pattern much from that currently

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards slightly less mild conditions at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to GFS at 88.5 pts then UKMO at 88.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has taken over the leading spot from GFS with 66.8 pts to 66.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.6 pts to 47.9 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS No real change in the outputs shown today between the models with just GFS at the end of the run showing a more coherent attempt of more settled weather conditions at the end of the two week period as High pressure builds up across the UK from the SW bringing a change to dry, bright and chilly weather with night frosts and fog patches. The rest of the output including GFS up to that time continues to paint a largely unsettled and windy spell of weather to come with fast moving bands of rain and showers including alternating temperatures between slightly milder than average temperatures to slightly below average temperatures in the North. In the showery spells some snowfall can be expected across the hills even in the South at times but with any colder interludes expected to be swept away East with consumate ease no suatined wintry weather for anyone looks likely. Winds will often be strong with gales very likely in exposure so it might not always feel as mild as the mercury suggests. Nevertheless, it looks unlikely that Winter as we would like it is likely anytime soon so I'm afraid we must batten down the hatches for the possibility of more troublesome rainfall and more traditional Winter's weather over the UK over the next few weeks at least and with the models refusing to decrease heights to the South it could be some while before we see a strong surge of cold air from the North that some experts and longer term forecasts suggest.

Next Update Tuesday January 26th 2016 from 09:00

January 24, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY JAN 24TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild and moist SW flow will cover the UK today with troughs close to the NW leading to rain and drizzle at times clearing slowly SE tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from 7000ft across NE Scotland today to 10000ft over the rest of the UK with no snowfall expected today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild especially at first but some colder spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow remaining strong or very strong over the next few weeks. It's direction will settle West to East within the next few days, with a very strong core across Scotland gradually turning into a more undulating pattern around 50-55deg North in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows persistent winds from between SW and NW over the next few weeks with very mild air at first slowly reducing through the coming week as winds veer more Westerly. Rain at times will be commonplace, heavy at times in the North and West. In the second week the pattern remains similar though it may become rather chillier at times with winds veering more NW briefly in the showery periods behind depressions as they move away to the East ahead of the next one arriving soon after. Pressure is shown to remain High to the South throughout.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is broadly similar to the Operational Run with a lot of windy and relatively mild weather especially at first with rain and showers at times, Some wintriness in the showers is possible in the North at times and a more definitive trend to colder periods outweighing milder ones develops through the second week with some frosts possible in the South close to high pressure. Then at the end of the run a shift of winds to the North sweeps cold air South to all with wintry showers and frosts at night for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are united in maintaining largely Westerly winds across the UK in two weeks time with the majority showing bands of rain crossing West to East under Low pressure near Iceland. Of the rest that show different solutions they just vary the influence of Low pressure and High pressure to the South with some output building High pressure further North across the Atlantic allowing a 40% pack to bring winds from more of a North or North-westerly source with wintry showers for many.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a very windy working week to come and into next weekend with Westerly gales commonplace with alternating spells of milder conditions with heavy rain followed by colder more showery interludes with snow at times across the North especially towards next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show Westerly or SW winds as the default pattern across the UK this week with troughs moving East and then SE to often become slow moving near the South with rain and drizzle persistent in the South at times while the North sees colder conditions at times with wintry showers.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning too shows strong Westerly winds across all of the UK for it's duration this morning. The very mild SW flow of very early this week veers more westerly with time and eventually NW for a while bringing colder and more showery conditions when some snow may fall to quite low levels in the North. the pattern remains very fluid though and mild air never looks far away with rain at times on a westerly wind still prevalent even at 10 days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a windy but broad mild West or SW flow across the UK across the next 7 days with rain and drizzle at times with some colder more showery conditions across the North at times and rather less wet and windy weather at times in the South where High pressure moves in close by at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very mobile with a broad westerly flow across the Atlantic, the UK and Europe bringing successive periods of rain and strong winds and relatively mild weather at times. With time though there is a painfully slow shift of emphasis towards less mild weather as the showery spells between the milder rain bands become more UK wide and although still quite brief some snowfall in the North could be problematic over the highest hills at times. By Day 10 the UK still lies in a Westerly flow with rain at times with a new Low advancing into the UK from the West and NW with rain and then wintry showers likely in the days that follow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the main vortex of Low pressure having shifted across to Scandinavia with an indication of less Low pressure to the NW and more High pressure down to the SW rather than South. The idea of West or NW winds and rather colder conditions than currently looks very real with sunshine and wintry showers in between brief spells of more prolonged rainfall by this time frame.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards slightly less mild conditions with time.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to GFS at 88.6 pts then UKMO at 88.2 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.3 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.3 pts to 48.2 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS I am still trying hard to find anything to pin my hopes on in the quest for the search for meaningful wintry weather to affect the UK this Winter and again this morning the models refuse to budge outside of the generally Atlantic dominated pattern that has plagued us so much this Winter with winds between SW and NW throughout the runs from all models. We currently have a very mild and moist SW flow across the U that will last a day or so before less mild weather moves across early in the week. From thereon it's just a case of watching repetitive spells of wind and rain followed by brighter and in the North more showery conditions and as the temperatures fall behind the cold fronts a wintry element to the showers is likely up here. With pressure always High to the South there is little chance of anything that cold reaching these parts before the next mild surge of energy with wind and rain rushes East across all parts. Winds look likely to be very strong at times with gales or severe gales especially over the North and West. Then as we move into the second week little overall change seems likely with the same Atlantic domination to the weather as the coming week. The one slight difference is the eventual shift of the lowest pressure to move over towards Scandinavia which should allow rather more coherent colder interludes to sweep South at times through all areas though without the fall of pressure to the South near Spain this looks doomed to fail on a pattern changing scale. We need pressure to rise strongly across the Atlantic and the removal of the Southern European High pressure before we can look forward to any sustained Northerly influence to establish and while the Jet Stream remains as strong as it's predicted to be it looks far from obliging in the near future, patience is definitely a requisite.

Next Update Monday January 25th 2016 from 09:00

January 23, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 23RD 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure will move away East today as a new set of frontal troughs move NE over SW areas tonight and the rest of the UK tomorrow followed by a very mild and moist SW flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from 5000ft across NE Scotland today to 7000ft over the SW rising further tonight to exceed 10000ft for much of the UK tomorrow. With these sort of freezing levels snow cannot be expected.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild but some cooler spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow to blow setting up in a NNE direction up the West and NW of the UK for the next few days. It then realigns to blow West to east across Northernmost parts of the UK for the remainder of the period quite strong at times with much of the UK remaining on the milder side of the flow at least until late in week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows no change to the output of late with persistent and often mild and strong West or SW winds across the UK with fast moving bands of rain running through on the flow. High pressure moves up close to the South at times restricting the heaviest and most persistent falls of rain to the North while these areas too see occasional colder interludes with wintry showers albeit very briefly between weather systems.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is the same as the Operational Run in every respect with mild Atlantic winds maintaining relatively mild and changeable conditions for all with rain at times especially across the North and West with some drier spells across the South and East closest to High pressure over Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are still very mixed but a 60% pack seem to support High pressure lying to the SW of the UK with a West or WNW flow across the UK with average temperatures and rain at times especially towards the North. 40% show High pressure to the SE of the UK and 20% of this group has High pressure well to the SE with the influence of Low pressure right across all areas of the UK in a cyclonic Westerly flow.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows strong WSW winds next week in a changeable pattern of fast moving troughs crossing the North with rain at times followed by brief colder interludes with showers while the South stays milder with more occasional rainfall than further North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today detail the complexities of the mild SW flow with troughs crossing NE or east on regular occasions alternating mild with chillier conditions in the North while the South stays relatively mild and breezy with rain or drizzle at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows windy weather over the next 10 days with winds always coming from a SW, West and later NW direction. Very mild air at first becomes somewhat cooler though not cold later with rain at times still for many though still most prolific across the North where colder conditions could bring wintry showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a windy but broad mild West or SW flow across the UK across the next 7 days with rain and drizzle at times with some slightly colder more showery conditions across the far North and rather less wet and windy weather at times in the South where some very mild days look likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM today looks very disturbed for the UK over the next 10 days. throughout the period a very strong Jet flow across the UK ensures all areas see spells of sometimes very wet and windy weather with temperatures on the mild side of average. It may become somewhat colder at times with brief interludes of wintry showers between weather systems but overall the most important message from ECM this morning is the return of troublesome amounts of rain again to many western and Northern areas in particular.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows rock solid support for Low pressure to the North of the UK and a broad trough west of it to Greenland maintaining a strong Westerly flow across the UK with rain and showers at times. While generally mild colder interludes will no doubt affect all areas at times when some wintry showers could affect the North especially in the middle of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to GFS at 88.3 pts then UKMO at 88.1 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.4 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.4 pts to 48.3 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There remains little differences from the models to that shown of late with absolutely rock solid support from all the main Operational's and many of the ensemble members too for a continuation of the recently set up Atlantic domination we have had to endure for 90% of this Winter. For the next few days it is going to be almost exceptionally mild again with 15C exceeded by many tomorrow, some 22C higher than was the case just 4 days prior. It may be spoilt by cloud and light rain though with the North and West as usual seeing the worst of this. Thereafter the very mildest conditions do seep away somewhat with a more traditional mild then cool alternation of events as various frontal systems run quickly through any one place on the very strong Atlantic flow with gale or severe gales at times. The most alarming thing shown within some outputs this morning is the return of collective rainfall events offering the possibility of a return to flooding issues developing none more so than in the areas already affected this Winter. This may not occur if the passage of troughs is quick but there is some output which shows trailing fronts straddling the UK at times giving sustained rainfall to the places underneath them, something to watch for sure. In the longer term there is still a desire to shift the vortex of Low pressure further to the East towards Scandinavia but unfortunately heights refuse to fall over Iberia leaving the UK in just a rather colder flow from a Westerly point still and Winter still very much on hold as a result. So I'm afraid that it is looking well into February now before any chance of cold returns for the UK and with a flat zonal pattern that exists currently coupled with such a strong Jet Stream again any changes look likely to be slow and arduous.

Next Update Sunday January 24th 2016 from 09:00

January 22, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 22ND 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move NE across the UK today clearing the East later with a ridge of High pressure under a mild SW flow reaching all areas today and lasting for much of tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will be around 8000ft today falling to closer to 6000ft for a time tomorrow. Snowfall is not expected except on the highest summits of Scotland in showers later.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild but some cooler spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow to blow across the UK in a North or Northeast direction over the weekend before moving West to east across the UK next week in a much stronger state before becoming more undulating in Week 2 but remaining in a West to East pattern at around 50-55 deg North.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Atlantic domination of the weather over the UK throughout the next few weeks between High pressure to the South and Low pressure rushing East to the North. The pressure gradient between this general pressure set-up steepens next week with gales or severe gales at times for all with some colder interludes across the North with wintry showers at times. Later in the second week it looks like less windy and unsettled weather develops as High pressure moves in closer to the South or SW with a spell of dry and fine weather with some night frosts for a time.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is very similar to the above run today with a wet and wild period next week with some cooler interludes in the North with wintry showers mixed with mild and wet weather affecting all at times. The pattern eases somewhat in Week 2 with a North/South split developing again with a lot of dry, bright and sometimes mild weather in the South with spells of rain still in the North mixed with drier spells here too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are a very mixed bunch none of which shows anything particularly wintry for the UK with the bias towards High pressure to the SW or South with winds between SW and NW from all members and varying amounts of Atlantic Lows and depressions affecting the North almost certainly with a more mixed amount of affect for the South.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows West to SW winds next week, strong at times with spells of rain and gales or severe gales in exposure. Though technically mild for the most part some colder spells behind cold fronts could bring a few wintry showers across the hills of the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the milder conditions well with a SW feed of winds from the Azores wafting across the UK at the weekend with some moist air and fronts delivering some rain across the North and West before more appreciable wind and rain arrives early next week as a cold front moves slowly in from the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows unsettled and sometimes wet and windy weather across the UK through the next 10 days. Very mild conditions at first will ease back somewhat next week towards more average levels at the same time as Westerly gale or severe gales and rain followed by showers becomes the theme later on before an even further switch towards the NW might deliver rather chilly and blustery weather with more wintry showers towards the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a windy but broad mild West or SW flow across the UK across the next 7 days with rain and drizzle at times with some slightly colder more showery conditions across the far North and rather less wet and windy weather at times in the South where some very mild days look likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM today shows a very windy period of weather lasting the 10 days with some very mild weather in the first few days before temperatures slowly fall off next week to more average levels and maybe somewhat below average at times in the North towards the end of the period as the winds veer more towards a WNW direction at times. There will be various spells of rain throughout the period most prolific across the West and North with showers following, turning wintry over the hills especially in the North. Severe gales could also affect exposed locations especially later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is very supportive of a pattern highlighted by the Operational run with a very strong signal that Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South will be present across the UK 10 days from now with mild and occasionally wet weather in a strong westerly flow but with slow trend towards colder more showery conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.1 pts to 66.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.9 pts to 46.4 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Another morning of model observation which sees the Atlantic Ocean having complete domination across the UK over the next few weeks. All models show relentless winds from between SW and NW throughout the 15 days period with the main theme being the slow progression of winds slowly veering from a very mild SW direction early in the period towards a more westerly or even West North-westerly direction later on. There also seems a lot of support for relentless High pressure to remain down over Spain and the Azores with a strengthening of the gradient of pressure across the UK giving rise to gales or severe gales at times next week. As winds swing westerly briefly behind cold fronts some colder air will sweep across the North at times at least with some wintry showers likely over the hills and with time this risk looks like it could come all the way down into the South too as the Low pressure areas focus further East to the North of Scotland and maybe Scandinavia. However, any sustained shift towards a colder blast from the NW or North let alone the East looks a long way off still on this morning's output as the Jet stream remains relentless and quite strong as well as badly positioned for the UK and given these reasons along with the heights remaining stubbornly high just to our South it looks unlikely that we will be seeing widespread cold weather across the UK this side of early February given the output on offer this morning.

Next Update Saturday January 23rd 2016 from 09:00

January 21, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY JAN 21ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Milder Southerly winds will develop across the UK with troughs of Low pressure moving East across the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by milder SW winds for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will rise markedly over the UK over the next 24-48hrs. Already above 5000ft in the SW and 2000ft in the East freezing levels will rise further above all summits of the UK to be as high as 10000ft in the SW later tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mild and changeable with rain at times especially in the NW. Windy at times too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow to blow across the UK in a West to east direction over the coming days. It then backs SW to NE across NW Britain before eventually settling West to East and generally to the North of the UK during the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is largely focused on mild Atlantic SW'lies running throughout the period this morning due to a persistent belt of High pressure lying to the South of the UK and a strong of Low pressure to the North. Occasional troughs will move east across the UK at times within a lot of mild air when temperatures will reach average levels at worst and above average at times. Any frosts will be limited to the short interludes behind cold fronts and in the South as High pressure to the South comes closer at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is very similar in theme to the Operational Run with only day to day variances between when and when it doesn't rain. So changeable is the message and it looks often likely to be mild and breezy before things turn decidedly wet and windy late in the period as Low pressure crosses rapidly West to East across the UK as the pressure gradient steepens across Britain with westerly gales very likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 60% pack with High pressure either to the SW of the UK with strong Westerly winds and rain at times with temperatures at least close to average. Other smaller packs show more influence from High pressure to the South of the Uk with conversely 5% showing really stormy conditions with Westerly gales and Low pressure close to northern Scotland.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an altogether milder period coming up as SW winds and occasional troughs of Low pressure move NE across the UK from today with rain at times for all with the heaviest and most persistent falls across the North and West but with brighter mild spells as well especially across the South and East. generally windy weather is likely too at times with SW gales at times in exposure especially next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the milder conditions well with the next 24 hours seeing complex troughs crossing east over the UK with mild SW'lies taking control well in to next week with some rain at times especially in the NW and in exposure to mild moist SW winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows a mild 10 days to come with SW winds establishing in the next 24 hours and lasting throughout the next 10 days. Troughs within that flow will bring rain at times for all but most frequent in the NW at first until the latter stages of the run indicate gales and heavy rain for all as the pressure gradient is shown to steepen across the UK.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows another prolonged mild spell to come with the last of the cold air today shifting away East with the rest of the run illustrating West to SW winds and rain at times the order of the theme of NAVGEM this morning with the usual suspects in the North and West seeing the most rainfall while the east and SE see longer drier spells and mildest temperatures.

ECM ECM today shows the breakdown today towards milder and wetter weather with the theme of High pressure to the SE then South developing through next week keeping a very flat pattern of Westerly winds and mild conditions for all of the UK next week with rain at times most prolific in the North. It's not until Day 10 when there is an embryonic signal that High pressure ridging across the Atlantic could introduce a colder interlude soon after day 10 although it's difficult to ascertain whether this is a pattern shift or just another passing ridge.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is very supportive of a pattern highlighted by the Operational run with a very strong signal that Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South will be present across the UK 10 days from now with mild and occasionally wet weather in a strong westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning have strengthened their theme that mild SW or Westerly winds will be blowing across the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.4 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.7 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.1 pts to 65.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.5 pts to 46.6 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS It appears my optimism of yesterday has fallen on deaf ears within the output this morning as all models now show a sustained period of mild Atlantic SW or West winds likely to persists across the UK over the next 10-14 days. The problem appears to be a Winter long one this year that High pressure remains too high down to the South of the UK and the Meditteranean. This permits the Jet stream to ride unabated across Northern Britain and Europe with a never ending river of mild and moist WSW winds across the UK aided by the Azores High being ever present too. The cold block shown with more resilience to the East on yesterdays output has been all but pushed right back well into Russia today with little hope of any cold from that source any time soon. Instead we have just one embryo to grasp and that is from ECM at day 10 this morning which shows a ridging process over the Atlantic which may or may not result in a hiatus in the mild and windy pattern likely up until that point. However, it is a shot in the dark and to be honest the charts this morning represent some of the poorest output for those looking for a return to cold this Winter. So with so little to look at other than days of mild and changeable weather its most definitely going to be into February at least before we see our next shot at cold in the UK and at the moment it is hard to see where that is likely to come from if the current synoptic prospects remain as stubborn as it seems.

Next Update Friday January 22nd 2016 from 09:00

January 20, 2016

I'm not surprised at the increased interest that the 6z shows as I hinted might happen in my morning report. Let's hope it's the start of something that's expanded upon later.

January 20, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY JAN 20TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lying across the UK today will move away SE tomorrow as freshening Southerly winds and troughs of Low pressure move into the SW of Britain tomorrow moving slowly NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft apart from the far SW of England where the level is nearer 4000ft today rising to in excess of 5000ft here tomorrow. Snowfall is unlikely today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West. Mostly dry at times in the SE.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently weak across the Atlantic will ramp up somewhat and move East across the UK for a few days. Thereafter the prediction for it to locate well to the Northwest of the UK remains with High pressure close to the UK later keeping it well away from UK shores.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is largely focused on dry and fine conditions under High pressure to the East and SE through the run. There is a couple of milder and more unsettled periods shown within the first week of the run when some rain any affect all for a time particularly this Friday and maybe again towards the middle of next week. Other than that this run shows any rain more focused towards the NW with a lot of dry, bright and possibly rather cold conditions with frost at night the more likely weather for many through the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today also shows quite a lot of anticyclonic weather especially for England and Wales. A milder spell is likely following a spell of rain over the weekend and this run too shows the chance of another spell of rain towards the middle of next week which is followed by a rise of pressure across the South which then extends to Europe and sets up a trend towards rather cold weather with frost and fog returning by night and more unsettled conditions threatening the UK again at the end of the run as Low pressure moves into a cold block returned across much of Europe by that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 65% pack with High pressure either to the SW or over the British Isles itself offering fine weather with some overnight frosts and fog. The remaining 35% of members show milder West or SW winds and rain at times in association with Low pressure to the North of Britain.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an altogether milder period coming up as SW winds and occasional troughs of Low pressure move NE across the UK from Friday with rain at times for all with the heaviest and most persistent falls across the North and West but with brighter mild spells as well especially across the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today is quite representative of the raw data as the winds turn SW for all and after a series of frontal troughs bring milder air to all over the weekend. High pressure lies to the SE with a warm front moving back NE across the UK bringing further mild and cloudy weather with rain or drizzle at times especially across the North and West

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows milder air moving across the UK this Friday with some rain for all followed by several days of rather changeable weather with some rain in the North and West. With time though High pressure never far away to the SE realigns later as a cold puddle of air moves West over Europe and threatens the UK again with colder air later with some frost returning especially towards the South and East while the NW probably maintains the dampest and mildest weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today prefers to fly the mild flag today as once the rain bearing trough of Friday introduces less cold air the rest of the period is shown to maintain SW winds for all with further rain at times and strong winds too as we reach the middle of next week as a more vigorous Low pressure area is shown to move up from the SW towards the SW approaches.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the breakdown on Friday with a spell of rain for all ushering in milder Atlantic SW'lies. Thereafter pressure is shown to remain High to the SE and Low to the NW with the influence of Low pressure maintaining milder Atlantic winds with rain at times there while High pressure often very close to Southern Britain maintaining a lot of fine weather there with nearer to average temperatures at times and probably a return of some night frosts at times later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has good agreement that pressure is likely to be Low near Southern Greenland while High pressure lies across the Azores in 10 days. Pressure patterns over Europe though look very indeterminate with a variety of options shown within members which could have implications for less mild conditions across the far SE of the UK later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models show a classic NW/SE split in trend this morning with varying degrees of bias towards a dominance of influence of High pressure over Europe again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS edging ahead of UKMO at at 99.5 pts to UKMO's 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 65.7 pts over GFS's 65.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.3 pts to 47.6 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS With temperatures not far off -8C outside my window as I type it is hard to imagine that in a couple of days time temperatures will be some 15C warmer but such as Winter in the UK this is the most likely outcome shown within the models again today. The current cold High pressure across the UK will slide away East over the next 24 hours as troughs of Low pressure move up from the SW to reach the SW later tomorrow and all areas on Friday. All areas will see a spell of rain followed by much milder SW winds and some bright weather over the weekend. There will be some further rain especially across the West and North though with the main difficulty this morning in the detail surrounding this milder phase of weather. Some output notably those from this side of the Atlantic show quite unsettled conditions early next week and possibly longer with rain at times for all and temperatures responding to near or a little above average at times. However, this is not the blanket approach by all models. There remains a cold block across Europe which although recedes East over the coming three or four days will remain poised towards Russia and the American models do acknowledge this and coupled with High pressure which never lies far away to the SE and East could come back from the East later as High pressure rebuilds across a more Northerly latitude in the second week. It may be just natural variability between model runs and this theme may disappear in the next runs but my gut feeling is that the milder weather to come will not be like the spell in December with High pressure playing a much more dominant role aided by a weaker Jet Stream than back then and if it builds sufficiently North over Europe or even into Southern Britain it wouldn't take much to throw a totally different reflection on the weather at the surface than that currently indicated. I do believe that we are not moving into a spell of prolonged mildness but rather a period of changeable weather with a slow theme to drift back into dry and anticyclonic weather with frosts returning within a week or so. So having nailed my colours to the mast lets hope that I am right and that trends continue to develop towards a colder evolution in the rest of the runs today and tomorrow.

Next Update Thursday January 21st 2016 from 09:00

January 19, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY JAN 19TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure building down across the UK will persist over the next few days before gradually moving away to the SE by Thursday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft apart from the far SW of England where the level is nearer 4000ft today. Snowfall is unlikely today away from the North and East coasts.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold at first then becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will move East across the Atlantic before grinding to a halt near the far west of the UK later this week. It is then steered North with the whole pattern edging East. In the second week a cyclonic flow around the UK occurs before the flow strengthens and simplifies to more of a West to East flow across the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today focuses on removing the cold and dry air across the UK by the weekend as a trough of Low pressure brings less cold air, stronger winds and a spell of rain East across the UK. thereafter the main message is a NW/SE split in the weather with occasional rain in the NW where the mildest conditions will be to rather colder but dry conditions in the South and East with benign conditions with frost and fog patches by night. By the end of the run High pressure lies to the SW with a cool NW flow with some showers in the North and East perhaps wintry over the hills there.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is not too dissimilar to the Operational run at least in theme with High pressure to the SE maintaining a NW/SE split in the weather with sometimes rather cold conditions still likely in the East with the mildest conditions in the NW and extreme West where occasional rain is likely. The latter stages of the run shows more pronounced unsettled and windy weather in the NW with gales and rain for a time although effects of this for the South look limited and temporary.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 65% pack with High pressure either to the SW or over the British Isles itself offering fine weather with some overnight frosts and fog. The remaining 35% of members show milder West or SW winds and rain at times in association with Low pressure to the North of Britain.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure receding away to the SE late this week with a SW flow following a trough of Low pressure from Friday delivering milder conditions with rain at times especially towards the North and West out to the start of next week at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today shows High pressure across the UK in the coming days before a gang of troughs move into the cold block bringing milder and stronger winds and rain to all areas through Friday with SW winds and occasional rain likely thereafter.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows much stronger resistance from High pressure parked across Europe. It's position to the SE after the brief spell of rain for many on Friday influences the South and East of the UK with occasional frosts for most of next week gradually easing North to extend influence to the more changeable NW too by the end of the run as it lies across the UK by then with more widespread frosts and overnight fog patches.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a similar pattern with High pressure to the SE on this run just too far away to prevent the occasional intervention of troughs moving across the UK from the Atlantic in average temperatures and winds from a SW'ly quadrant.

ECM ECM today shows the breakdown on Friday with a spell of rain for all ushering in milder Atlantic SW'lies. Thereafter and through the remainder of the run mild SW winds largely persist with just brief bright and dry interludes perhaps with patchy frost in the South and rain at times for all most frequent and heavy in the North and West. Southern Britain is then shown to become dry and settled at the end of the period as a large High pressure area inches North into Southern Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the same distribution of High and Low pressure areas over and around Britain that it has over recent days and though there is wriggle room for more influence of High pressure to the SE most members maintain SW winds and mild and changeable conditions most likely in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have trended back again today to milder SW winds with rain at times across all areas for much of next week with rather less influence from High pressure to the East and SE than was shown yesterday.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 65.3 pts over GFS's 64.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.6 pts to 47.1 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS We have another couple of days of the current cold spell to go before the Atlantic reclaims the air across the British Isles and brings a return to rain at times and milder temperatures too. At the moment we have High pressure building across the UK before it recedes away to the SE late in the week taking the cold and frosty conditions across the UK currently with it. Cloud and wind then increases from the SW later on Thursday with rain following. This extends East through all areas Friday followed on by brighter fresher weather for the weekend with nearer to average temperatures. For the rest of the period this morning all output show the only differences as being how much influence High pressure to the SE of the UK has on the East and South of the UK and the output today suggests the answer to that is rather less than was shown yesterday. This means that the incidence of occasional rain in the South as well is likely next week and temperatures should maintain largely average levels at least next week. However, being the High to the SE is only at arms length away there is still a chance of that is could reassert some influence across the South and East longer term with the return of frost and fog patches. What isn't show this morning is much in the way of a slip into wintry weather again with the Jet Stream and pressure patterns over and around the UK not conducive for this to develop. So it looks like February at least before we will see our next shot at Winter if this morning's output is to be believed.

Next Update Tuesday January 19th 2016 from 09:00

January 18, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY JAN 18TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure over SW England will weaken and move back SW later. Another trough over Central Scotland will also weaken as it moves slowly South. A High pressure ridge will build across the UK late today and tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft apart from SW England where the level is nearer 4000ft today, falling later. Snowfall is most likely across Central Scotland this morning gradually dying out later.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold at first then becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will move SE across the UK and to the East for a day or two before becoming light and insignificant for a few days from midweek. Then towards the weekend the flow moves East across the UK for a time, albeit relatively weakly before throughout the second week it is shown to be very variable in both strength and location over this side of the Atlantic.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today looks rather different to yesterday with High pressure to the East and SE this week proving reluctant to give way to the fronts moving in from the West at the end of the week. As they move across the UK they weaken with some rain and milder air in tow. Following on pressure builds again, first from the South-east and then the North as fine and eventually quite frosty conditions return to many areas next week. Towards the end of the run the High responsible pulls away SE with stronger SW winds and rain moving across all areas along with milder temperatures.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today also shows a lot more persistence of High pressure to the East and SE through the period this morning with rather cold and dry conditions developing this week giving way briefly with somewhat less cold SSE winds and some rain for a time towards the weekend. then as High pressure to the East builds back it becomes rather cold and mostly dry again next week before things turn milder and more unsettled again late in the run especially over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 55% pack with mild SW winds and rain at times with High pressure to the South. 30% go for a more direct blanket of High pressure covering the UK while 10% show very unsettled and windy weather with deep Low pressure just to the North. An interesting 5% only at this stage go for a High pressure area over Iceland and Low pressure across Iberia and the Met with a strong and cold East flow across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the High pressure area delivering rather cold but dry conditions through the working week. Over Friday and the weekend it weakens and allows some weakening troughs NE across the UK with less cold air and some rain followed by brighter conditions especially across the South and East as High pressure remains quite close to the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today still shows a slow and arduous battle across or to the West and SW of the UK between mild Atlantic air and rather cold and dry air across the UK as High pressure builds and moves SE into NW Europe later in the week. Fronts to the West and SW then make some inroads into the UK by the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning is largely High pressure based with the centre over the North sea this week maintaining cold and mostly dry weather. Then at the end of the week and weekend the High recedes away SE for a time as a trough brings rain and less cold air for a time. Following on behind is brighter and drier weather again as pressure builds again from the South and SE. the theme next week is then for rather cold and dry weather for many again especially in the South and East as High pressure to the East extends a ridge West across the UK with any milder weather restricted to the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains it's similar theme to yesterday towards somewhat miler air making it across the UK by next weekend. In the meantime a lot of rather cold and benign weather looks likely with some frost and fog at night and occasional rain in the SW. Then next weekend a NW/SE split sets up with milder and changeable conditions in SW winds over the NW while the South and East still look mainly dry, perhaps with slight frost at night continuing in light winds but temperatures near average at least by day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a slow breakdown of High pressure to the East late this week but it does look like it may only be temporary as after a spell of rain for some pressure rebuilds to the East allowing a continental feed at times across at least the South early next week with milder Atlantic air still trying to push up against a cold block of High pressure to the East late in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a pressure pattern which has backed west over the last day or so having Low pressure further West near Southern Greenland and pressure somewhat higher over Northern Europe. To me this suggests that more of a Southerly flow with more of a continental influence to the east and South next week is possible.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are trending towards a somewhat shorter spell of milder winds late this week with the theme of more influence from High pressure to the East and SE next week growing too.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.7 pts to UKMO at 87.7 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.9 pts over GFS's 64.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.8 pts to 47.0 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS While last week saw massive swings between the outputs run to run we have at least this morning some common ground again which leads to there being a greater level of confidence on the general theme of the weather in the coming weeks. As we move further out of course confidence weakens but the trends are very important and I can report that within these trends today there is some interest for those looking for cold weather. In the here and now the weakening rain band in the SW and the trough delivering patchy snow in Scotland will all dissipate within the next 24 hours as the cold air wins back as High pressure slides down from the North across the UK giving most of the UK three days of cold and bright conditions with some night frosts. All output then show this High receding away onto Europe allowing a trough of Low pressure within milder SW winds to engulf the UK on Friday or Saturday. Once passed it is increasingly shown today that pressure will build again especially across the South and East especially with High pressure building back North and maybe West too into next week. If we can get this second build of pressure to move further North over Europe then the resultant backing winds across the South would likely re-introduce a continental flow to the winds and return lower temperatures again to the South and East of the UK at least. There is plenty of indication within the models this morning that this could happen with the GFS Operational showing High pressure developing near the North of the UK too in the second week bringing it's own theme of colder weather from that source too. While nothing particularly exciting is shown within the output to suggest snow and ice this morning the previously model runs of mild and windy weather have largely been watered down this morning in preference to perhaps the building blocks to draw something cold from the East quite soon. Let's just hope this morning's small changes are the precursor to further enhancements of this type of solution giving a spell of dry and cold weather again as a trip back to mild and wet conditions that's been hinted at of late is something I'm sure none of us want to see.

Next Update Tuesday January 19th 2016 from 09:00

January 17, 2016

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY JAN 17TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The frontal wave will clear the SE this morning followed by a more active trough approaching from the SW tonight and tomorrow weakening later as a chilly SE flow ahead of it affects many places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 1500ft to 2000ft across Eastern Britain and above 5000ft in the far SW. The milder air will encroach further East tonight but recede back towards the far SW again tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold at first then becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The movement of the Jet Stream looks like crossing the UK later in the week though not as strong as we have seen currently. The longer term theme still shows the flow relatively weak and revolving clockwise around the North of the UK as High pressure is favoured to lie close to the South.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very complex pattern across the next two weeks with day to day details impossible to pin down. The cold theme of early in the week looks like being eroded away from the West by the end of the week with some rain at times especially across the North and West. Then through the second week changeable conditions look likely and although the Atlantic airflow will play it's part in maintaining fairly average temperatures cold weather could return at times and towards the end of the run with frost and fog in places and High pressure builds over or to the North and NE of the UK.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today shows rather cold weather for much of the working week to come before milder winds from the Atlantic arrive before next weekend as High pressure to the East slips away SE across Europe. then next weekend shows rain at times in blustery but less cold West winds. the second week then shows the North and NW favoured to see mild and unsettled weather with further rain while the South and East see a lot of dry weather closer to High pressure over nearby Europe. the end of the run shows a strong High to the South and mild weather for all of the UK in a Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 50% pack with mild SW winds and rain at times at the end of the run while the other 50% indicate the chance of more influence from High pressure to the South or SE of the UK. However, the main theme remains a mild one from GFS longer term today.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a week of two halves as the first half shows rather cold and bright weather for many with frost and fog patches by night and some rain in the far SW as High pressure holds firm to the East. Then from midweek mild and stronger SW winds advance across all areas with rain at times for all, heaviest across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a slow and arduous battle across the West and SW of the UK as fronts become slow moving against a block of cold air to the North and East of the UK. By Friday there is signs of a more pronounced push of troughs from the SW but it looks as though it will take until the weekend to reach the extreme East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows an even slower theme towards mild weather as High pressure remains to the East almost to next weekend. As a result troughs of low pressure to the SW repeatedly try and push milder air into the UK weakening and decaying as they do but delivering some rain or sleet in places before they do. By next weekend a trough does appear to bring milder air with some rain across the UK but with High pressure hot on it's heels any mildness looks relative with frost and fog patches under UK based High pressure looking likely to end the run.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a similar theme towards somewhat miler air making it across the UK by next weekend. In the meantime a lot of rather cold and benign weather looks likely with some frost and fog at night and occasional rain in the SW. Then next weekend a NW/SE split sets up with milder and changeable conditions in SW winds over the NW while the South and East still look mainly dry, perhaps with frost at night continuing in light winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the same progression towards a more traditional winter pattern of Low pressure to the NW and High to the South by the end of the coming week. In the meantime rather cold conditions with a lot of cloud but a chilly SE breeze and some night frosts look likely before the rain in the SW advances NE to all by Thursday/Friday with the heaviest rain and strongest winds towards the North and West from next weekend and temperatures well up to average if not somewhat above locally.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows westerly winds across the UK with a Jet Stream splicing West to east across the UK. There could be many options within members different to this pattern but overall one would suspect from a chart like this that we are most likely to be milder with rain at times especially across the North and West in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all show a theme of an eventual return to milder SW winds by next weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.4 pts over GFS's 64.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.1 pts to 46.5 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Whatever people say about this cold period some places have seen some snow of late and that comes as a positive for those folks who have been searching for snow all Winter. However, for most it has been a disappointingly ill behaved cold period as the promised deep frosts and clear skies have evaded many with cold rain for some in among the few that heave seen snowfall. The weekend forecasts given on Friday have proved nothing short of abyssmal with little if any sunshine let alone frost here. However, it is what it is and looking forward in this morning's output the cold wins back somewhat for a time this week as an attempt of mild Atlantic air is stalled near SW England tomorrow. So the rain from this trough looks like reaching Central areas before pulling back SW through the day tomorrow. Any snowfall accompanying this is likely only on the highest ground of Wales and the NW as the cold across the UK has become modified by last nights trough and lack of low overnight temperatures. Once the rain dissolves across the SW later tomorrow it looks like several days of benign and rather cold weather with a lot of cloud at times but some bright weather with patchy night frosts, hardest towards the North and East. Then from around Thursday another push of milder air looks likely as the Jet stream realigns to the North of the UK and pushes the cold blocking High in the North Sea away SE. Rain will accompany a NE moving trough with no doubt some more temporary snow on Northern and Eastern hills before all areas become milder and more changeable by the weekend. Most output then shows an Atlantic domination through the second week although suggestions by some that High pressure will never be far away to the South or indeed over the South at times later in the period some overnight frosts look possible again late in the second week. Rainfall as normal in this pattern look heaviest across the North and West and most places across the UK should achieve average temperatures at worst through much of the second week as winds are biased towards a SW point. So that's how I see it this morning. Here in the SW the cold period has been very underwhelming and with the look of the output today it could be a while before we see the next one. The models are giving little away this morning as to where if anywhere that will come from but assuming that there are no surprises to come before the demise of this current cold period in the days that are left of it then it looks like it may be into February before we see the next risk of wintry weather on a meaningful scale.

Next Update Monday January 18th 2016 from 09:00

January 16, 2016

Light rain arrived here now. 3.1C

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Posts posted by Gibby