[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...]

For those who dare not tread in the Model Output thread here's your own copy of my report this morning being as things are a little interesting at the moment although I think most of the action may be just to the East of us. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 16TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A cold ridge of High pressure across the UK will give way to a frontal wave depression sliding SE from the NW of Scotland down across NW England the Midlands and SE England tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is uncertain for the next few days ranging from 2000ft or 500mtrs in the East rising to as much as 4000ft or 1000mtrs over the West and SW at times from tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Very Cold and frosty with the chance of snow for a time next week then probably becoming less cold for all with some rain in the North by the end of the week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The movement of the Jet Stream longer term is very uncertain this morning though currently the message is that the flow moving South across the UK in the coming days will become weak and ill defined later next week as far as the U is concerned before it blows more West to East across the UK for a time thereafter though details are very uncertain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very mixed pattern with the general message out of a very much more complex pattern being that Low pressure disrupting near the UK could bring rain and some snow in raw cold conditions early next week before some resurgence of cold High pressure from midweek brings fog and frost before milder air moves NE across most parts and continues off and on thereafter with fronts crossing at times though with colder High pressure never that far away to the East and South.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run longer term message is for very much milder and windy weather longer term as the Atlantic bandwagon of wind and rain resets to the North and West of the UK. in the short term details still look quite elusive but the cold air looks to be proved stubborn to move for much of next week with troughs running into cold air delivering a mix of rain, sleet and some snow before the milder air pummels through by the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a period of trough disruption across the UK as fronts edge NE across the UK early next the week before High pressure rebuilds midweek and then slides away SE late on in the run. Rain, sleet and snow would move across the UK early in the week before cold and frosty and perhaps foggy weather develops for a time finishing the week with milder SW winds affecting the North and West unlikely to reach the SE until next weekend. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the difficult battle between cold air across the UK and warmer Atlantic winds with a messy mixture of troughs delivering some rain and snow to Western and Central areas early in the week with the cold air winning back any territory lost as High pressure rebuilds close to the NE of the UK midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows the same messy mix of weather next week as repeated attempts by milder air to the SW of the UK interacts with the colder air over the UK and NW Europe. Eventually the North and West sees the mild air win out later next week and elsewhere over next weekend. Through the week though the raw weather is shown to deliver some rain, sleet or snow in places.

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme of much of the output this morning with the battle between milder winds from the Atlantic hitting the cold air across the UK with some rain and snow for some before High pressure builds into the UK for a time later next week before milder Atlantic winds make a more concerted push across the North and west by the end of next week and elsewhere eventually though High pressure remains close by just to the SE at the end of the period.

ECM ECM today shows very slow progress in dispersing the cold air across the UK next week with a couple of attempts shown on this morning's run each failing with rain and snow for some for a time. The power of the Atlantic does overwhelm the High pressure block formed to the NE midweek later as the High is pushed to the SE and SW winds along with the Jet stream realigns across the North with rain at times to the North and West at least in milder air for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has Low pressure in it's natural habitat near Iceland with High pressure to the South and SE with the Jet flow across Northern Britain meaning we are likely to see less cold and wetter conditions with rain at times in the North and West especially with the driest weather in the East and South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all show mild air eventually with an agreed delay of the onset of this now until later next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 87.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.0 pts over GFS's 63.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.6 pts to 45.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   Finally today we do appear to have gained some common ground between the output today as the general message is for the current cold snap to hang around for a while longer with messy attempts of milder air to come into the UK from the SW next week largely failing away from the SW itself. In fact there is also common ground today to develop High pressure close to the NE of the UK by the middle of the week pushing back any push from the Atlantic then and returning frost and freezing fog patches for many for a time. Equally we have good support that this High will more easily slip away SE across Europe late in the week opening the door to a resurgence of the Jet stream on a much more Northerly track and SW winds, first for the North and West and eventually for all. The change to milder weather looks quickest in the North and West where some rain at times becomes likely while the South and East stay drier and still a little cool at times as on most output High pressure stays quite close to the South and East. While the above sentiments do express the most likely outcome painted by the models this morning day to day differences especially early in the period are still likely as the remnants of ex hurricane Alex in the Western Atlantic muddies the waters with the progress East of any mild weather still very uncertain. This of course is crucial in determining who has snow and who has rain as each push of milder air attempts to cross Britain but if I had to pin anywhere to have a god chance of snow from Sunday to Wednesday I would say the Midlands and the SE could be the sweet spot but of course that is open to change. So finally while snowy armageddon is unlikely from this morning's output some areas are going to see some meaningful snow soon and while the end result looks like returning the milder Atlantic winds late next week there is still a lot of water to cross under the bridge before we arrive at next weekends solutions we can only hope that the models remain to progressive in the dispersal of the cold block.  

Next Update Sunday January 17th 2016 from 09:00 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 16TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A cold ridge of High pressure across the UK will give way to a frontal wave depression sliding SE from the NW of Scotland down across NW England the Midlands and SE England tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is uncertain for the next few days ranging from 2000ft or 500mtrs in the East rising to as much as 4000ft or 1000mtrs over the West and SW at times from tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Very Cold and frosty with the chance of snow for a time next week then probably becoming less cold for all with some rain in the North by the end of the week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The movement of the Jet Stream longer term is very uncertain this morning though currently the message is that the flow moving South across the UK in the coming days will become weak and ill defined later next week as far as the U is concerned before it blows more West to East across the UK for a time thereafter though details are very uncertain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very mixed pattern with the general message out of a very much more complex pattern being that Low pressure disrupting near the UK could bring rain and some snow in raw cold conditions early next week before some resurgence of cold High pressure from midweek brings fog and frost before milder air moves NE across most parts and continues off and on thereafter with fronts crossing at times though with colder High pressure never that far away to the East and South.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run longer term message is for very much milder and windy weather longer term as the Atlantic bandwagon of wind and rain resets to the North and West of the UK. in the short term details still look quite elusive but the cold air looks to be proved stubborn to move for much of next week with troughs running into cold air delivering a mix of rain, sleet and some snow before the milder air pummels through by the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a period of trough disruption across the UK as fronts edge NE across the UK early next the week before High pressure rebuilds midweek and then slides away SE late on in the run. Rain, sleet and snow would move across the UK early in the week before cold and frosty and perhaps foggy weather develops for a time finishing the week with milder SW winds affecting the North and West unlikely to reach the SE until next weekend. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the difficult battle between cold air across the UK and warmer Atlantic winds with a messy mixture of troughs delivering some rain and snow to Western and Central areas early in the week with the cold air winning back any territory lost as High pressure rebuilds close to the NE of the UK midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows the same messy mix of weather next week as repeated attempts by milder air to the SW of the UK interacts with the colder air over the UK and NW Europe. Eventually the North and West sees the mild air win out later next week and elsewhere over next weekend. Through the week though the raw weather is shown to deliver some rain, sleet or snow in places.

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme of much of the output this morning with the battle between milder winds from the Atlantic hitting the cold air across the UK with some rain and snow for some before High pressure builds into the UK for a time later next week before milder Atlantic winds make a more concerted push across the North and west by the end of next week and elsewhere eventually though High pressure remains close by just to the SE at the end of the period.

ECM ECM today shows very slow progress in dispersing the cold air across the UK next week with a couple of attempts shown on this morning's run each failing with rain and snow for some for a time. The power of the Atlantic does overwhelm the High pressure block formed to the NE midweek later as the High is pushed to the SE and SW winds along with the Jet stream realigns across the North with rain at times to the North and West at least in milder air for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has Low pressure in it's natural habitat near Iceland with High pressure to the South and SE with the Jet flow across Northern Britain meaning we are likely to see less cold and wetter conditions with rain at times in the North and West especially with the driest weather in the East and South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all show mild air eventually with an agreed delay of the onset of this now until later next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 87.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.0 pts over GFS's 63.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.6 pts to 45.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   Finally today we do appear to have gained some common ground between the output today as the general message is for the current cold snap to hang around for a while longer with messy attempts of milder air to come into the UK from the SW next week largely failing away from the SW itself. In fact there is also common ground today to develop High pressure close to the NE of the UK by the middle of the week pushing back any push from the Atlantic then and returning frost and freezing fog patches for many for a time. Equally we have good support that this High will more easily slip away SE across Europe late in the week opening the door to a resurgence of the Jet stream on a much more Northerly track and SW winds, first for the North and West and eventually for all. The change to milder weather looks quickest in the North and West where some rain at times becomes likely while the South and East stay drier and still a little cool at times as on most output High pressure stays quite close to the South and East. While the above sentiments do express the most likely outcome painted by the models this morning day to day differences especially early in the period are still likely as the remnants of ex hurricane Alex in the Western Atlantic muddies the waters with the progress East of any mild weather still very uncertain. This of course is crucial in determining who has snow and who has rain as each push of milder air attempts to cross Britain but if I had to pin anywhere to have a god chance of snow from Sunday to Wednesday I would say the Midlands and the SE could be the sweet spot but of course that is open to change. So finally while snowy armageddon is unlikely from this morning's output some areas are going to see some meaningful snow soon and while the end result looks like returning the milder Atlantic winds late next week there is still a lot of water to cross under the bridge before we arrive at next weekends solutions we can only hope that the models remain to progressive in the dispersal of the cold block.  

Next Update Sunday January 17th 2016 from 09:00

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 15TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A cold NW flow will ease away East with a High pressure cell moving across the UK from the west over the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will lie around 500m or 2000ft for much of the UK with any precipotation falling as snow over hills above 200m

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Very Cold and frosty with the chance of snow for a time next week then probably becoming less cold for all with some rain in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream running South across the UK over the coming days having crossed the Atlantic on an Easterly track around 50deg North. The flow then largely disrupts next week as far as the UK is concerned as it becomes much lighter and less well defined across Europe for a time before it realigns West to East across the Atlantic across Northernmost Britain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows cold conditions lasting across the UK into next week as the ridge at the weekend gives way to disrupting Low pressure across the UK with an awqward mix of rain and snow moving up across the UK from the SW early next week. Thereafter High pressure re-establishes to the East for a while with chilly and drier conditions for many before the Atlantic returns later with SW winds and rain at times especially across the North and West later with temperatures closer to average or a little above at times. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar in theme with the milder air not reaching many parts of the UK until later next week following a mix of rain and snow in raw conditions early on in the week. The milder SW winds then take hold but with High pressure never far away from the South a lot of dry weather is expected with rain mostly restricted to the North and West for a lot of the time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today is once more wanting to prevent much encroachment of milder Atlantic air into the UK next week with Low pressure and troughs moving into the UK bringing an impossible to forecast mix of rain and snow across the UK at times. My own thoughts reflect on snow mostly for northern parts early in the week and perhaps the South later as the cold extends back South with a Low to the South and SW by then and an Easterly flow across the South

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the difficult battle between cold air across the UK and Europe with milder Atlantic air moving in from the West and SW. Progress of troughs is shown to be slow and arduous with a real risk of snow for some early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows cold and anticyclonic conditions this weekend as High pressure is maintained close to the UK. Then through next week disrupting Low pressure near the UK brings a messy mix of rain and snow to almost anywhere for a time before it becomes drier and rather cold for a time as High pressure re-establishes to the NE. Then this is shown to collapse later with milder SW winds sending warmer air slowly NE across the UK reaching the NW first and the SE last.

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks fine and settled over the weekend this morning but cold and very frosty. After the weekend Low pressure troughs move slowly into the UK from the SW with a messy mix of rain, sleet and snow for several days as Low pressure disrupts it's way SE over Southern Britain. Later next week High pressure to the East eases away SE allowing milder Atlantic SW'lies to establish late next week away from the SE.

ECM ECM today shows another variation on the same theme as the rest of the output with disrupting troughs early in the week delaying the progress of milder air into the UK with the risk of rain and snow in places early in the week. On this run a wet spell develops late next week with Low pressure zipping East across Scotland before strong High pressure ridges up from the South to end the period with a lot of dry and benign weather in average temperatures and a Westerly breeze.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a similar theme as it has for the last few days and I'm not entirely sure what to read from it today as I feel it is looks too simplistic on what could be a complex set of members each showing very different solutions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show different options towards how long the cold weather across the UK lasts but the end theme for milder weather for all by the end of next week is still maintained this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 88.2 pts then GFS at 87.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.2 pts over GFS's 63.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.0 pts to 45.9 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   It does appear this morning as the pack of models have come dragging and screaming towards the UKMO solution that it has shown for days now although I feel the end realisation will change much more in the coming days. What we have in the short term is a strong High pressure ridge moving across the UK at the weekend although a spanner in the works is a trough up to the NW which slipping down across Northern areas at the weekend could take away the sunny skies and sharpest frosts by Sunday with some rain and snow in the North and NW. The main event though still appears to be the risk of snow and rain from the SW early next week as an ex Hurricane Alex moves North then NW across the West Atlantic. This is likely to strengthen the resolve of High pressure over or to the North of the UK and helps block the otherwise easy progress East of the associated milder air approaching the UK from the SW early next week. This means a very messy mix of rain, sleet or indeed snow could be a real risk for many next week but where and how much if any is yet to be determined. It then looks this morning that a short resurgence of High pressure from the East later next week could delay the second push of milder air too though this from most output looks much more successful in swamping all of the UK next weekend and beyond with the status quo of rain at times in the North and drier weather in the South with average temperatures at least for all by then. The models are all over the place currently and until the fragments of ex hurricane Alex have left the scene early next week we will probably continue to see further swings in outputs run to run. As a result confidence in my report comes with lower confidence than usual and things could continue to surprise us within the models in the coming days before the real solution is realised. More tomorrow.  

Next Update Saturday January 16th 2016 from 09:00 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

4 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Some chap here posts verification starts fairly often and it is usually ranked ECM, UKMO and GFS if memory serves.

Yes it's me. Here's todays story.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 88.2 pts then GFS at 87.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.2 pts over GFS's 63.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.0 pts to 45.9 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY JAN 14TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A cold NW flow will cover the UK through the next 24-48hrs with wintry showers at times across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will lie around 500m or 2000ft today with precipitation falling as now above levels of 200m or 1000ft today and tonight.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Very Cold and frosty with the small chance of snow in the South-west for a time early next week then becoming milder for all with some rain in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream turning South across the UK over the coming days having crossed the Atlantic on an easterly track around 50deg north. The flow then largely disrupts as far as the UK is concerned next week as it becomes much lighter and less well defined across Europe thereafter.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows cold conditions lasting across the UK through the weekend and the start of next week as a cold High crosses the UK from the West. This is then shown to collapse away to the SE towards midweek with SW winds for all and some rain at times in the North and West in particular with any drier and chillier conditions more likely to the SE and behind the passage of cold fronts in the North. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a very similar pattern to the Operational with a messy transition away from the cold pattern towards the middle of next week to much milder SW winds with rain at times thereafter with temperatures much closer to average and just brief cooler spells behind any cold fronts crossing East in the flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today is again wanting to prevent milder Atlantic air into the UK next week with High pressure remaining the dominant feature centred across the UK from the weekend and into the middle of next week. Conditions nationwide would remain cold or very cold with widespread sharp night frosts and freezing fog in places. Any wintry showers would be restricted to the far East and SE at first.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data well with High pressure centred over the UK in Arctic sourced air ensuring a cold, bright and frosty period maintained through the early part of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows cold and anticyclonic conditions from the weekend as High pressure is maintained close to the UK. Then through next week a slow transition towards mild SW winds begins with a messy transition of rain and snow in the SW and South for a time before the milder air accelerates NE over remaining areas late in the week with rain at times towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks fine and settled this morning but cold. Once the next few days of wintry showers have cleared away East High pressure builds across the UK only receding away slowly East next week, first as a disrupting Low pressure slips SE into France and delivering a risk of snow for the South and West and then more generally as milder SW winds claw there way NE across most Western and Northern areas at least by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today has firmed up again on a return to milder air next week as a messy transitions day or two of rain and snow moves across the UK early in the week following a cold and frosty weekend. by the end of the run all areas are shown to be under fresh and mild West or SW winds with some rain at times in the North and West and High pressure very strong to the South of the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is a close replica of the operational chart for the same time so this morning we can evaluate that there is high confidence in this kind of outcome coming to be.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show different options towards how long the cold weather across the UK lasts but the end theme for milder weather for all by the end of next weekis maintained and indeed strengthened this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.7 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.1 pts over GFS's 63.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.7 pts to 46.3 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   UKMO this morning still looks very isolated in it's stance of maintaining surface cold weather across the UK well into the middle of next week at least while all other output brings milder SW winds across the UK even quicker in some instances than was shown yesterday. For the here and now the weather is settling down for a period of cold and frosty weather especially over the weekend when some very low night temperatures could be achieved under clear skies and anywhere where there is any snow cover. Talking of snow there will be some over the next few days moving South across the UK in the form of showers in the ever weakening Northerly flow though amounts look far from troubling for most. Then as High pressure builds across the UK the coldest weather arrives with widespread frost and some freezing fog. Through the beginning of next week milder Atlantic air will be trying to push in from the SW and after an erratic start most output accelerates this across all areas in the middle days of next week. However, with UKMO still showing a strong High pressure rock solid across the UK next Wednesday I wouldn't discount an extension to the cold not shown by the other output again this morning though on the downside for some due to it's persistence of High pressure any Atlantic attack misses the SW on Monday and and looks some way off still by midweek. So not for the first time of late it's the rest vs UKMO today as this rollercoaster ride of a cold spell continues to baffle the output. For those looking for snow it's not looking particularly likely for many at least not in a meaningful way and if the whiff of snow for the South and SW doesn't materialise in the transitions period early next week it looks likely we could be waiting a good while again thereafter as the Jet stream looks like returning to it's normal axis long term unless the UKMO continues to show a different pattern.  

Next Update Friday January 15th 2016 from 09:00

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY JAN 13TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A weak ridge of High pressure will move away east today followed by an Atlantic depression and fronts moving erratically ESE across the UK tonight and tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will lie around 1000m or 4000ft today and falling further towards 500m or 2000ft in Northern and Central parts later tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Cold and frosty with the chance of snow in the South for time early next week then becoming milder.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing streaming East across France at the moment before it changes to flow South across the UK by the weekend and start to next week. It then breaks up for a time before realigning on a much more Northerly latitude in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows cold conditions lasting across the UK for the next week as the cold North or NW flow with wintry showers is replaced by High pressure crossing east over the UK with fine and frosty conditions likely. Then for a time next week a battleground between milder Atlantic air and cold air across the UK is played out across the SW with rain and snow likely for a time before a more general switch to milder Atlantic SW winds take hold from the middle of next week with some rain at times in the NW. It could become quite mild for a time especially over the South and East before things cool down again by the end of the period with the return of frost and fog patches nigh and morning as High pressure re-establishes near the UK.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a very similar pattern to the Operational with a messy transition away from the cold pattern towards the middle of next week to much milder SW winds with rain at times thereafter though changes to somewhat colder conditions on a NW breeze looks likely at times too with High pressure never far away to the South and SW later keeping things largely dry and benign there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today is again wanting to prevent milder Atlantic air into the UK next week with a push of mild air into cold air across the South of the UK likely early next week with potential for significant snow in the South and SW early in the week and cold and frosty conditions maintained elsewhere as Low pressure to the SW disrupts and slides ESE into France.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold North to NW flow with wintry showers near coasts giving way to fine and cold conditions as frosty High pressure moves slowly East across the UK at the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows cold and anticyclonic conditions from the weekend as High pressure is maintained close to the UK for the early days of next week. On this run there is no push of Atlantic air into the SW so no snow risk shown before milder air moves across the UK from a more NW'ly direction in a much less eventful fashion with the run ending in relatively Atlantic based winds for all of the UK in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks fine and settled this morning but cold. Once the next few days of wintry showers have cleared away East over the weekend the beginning of next week looks generally cold and fine with frosty nights with the run ending with a large High pressure area close to or over Western Britain in he middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today has changed markedly since yesterday morning and now has followed the lad from UKMO in maintaining cold across the UK until the latter stages of next week at least. High pressure moving into the UK at the weekend will replace the wintry showers near eastern coasts giving most places a very frosty, bright and cold weekend. then early next week low pressure fronts to the SW move into the cold air before shearing away to the SE. Snow is likely from these across the South before fine and cold weather returns midweek. Then towards the end of the run High pressure is shown to collapse SE allowing mild SW winds to make inroads across the UK from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure likely to lie to the South or SE of Southern Britain in 10 days time with milder conditions having spread to all areas by that time. Pressure is unlikely to be very low so the South and East could be largely dry and benign but stronger SW winds across the North and West will more than likely lead to some rain at times here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show different options towards how the extension of the cold weather across the UK takes place. However, the end theme remains for milder weather for all by the end of next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.4 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts then GFS at 86.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.1 pts over GFS's 63.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.2 pts to 46.8 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   In the last few days there has been a marked stand-off between most of the output and what UKMO has shown in the evolutions of milder air reaching the UK next week. In the last 24 hours this seems to have been resolved with most of the output returning output today more akin to that of UKMO so hats off to that model for sticking to it's guns. The result of this is that I can now more confidently say that the UK is going to stay cold rather longer than previously thought and it looks like the end of next week at least before many areas see a return to Atlantic winds. More importantly for many is that there looks to be a real risk that a period of snow may affect the South and SW early next week as mild Atlantic air pushes against the cold air established across the UK before shearing it away SE into France. As is usual with these situations details of where, if any and how much snow will fall will not be realised until later in the weekend and for many it is likely to just stay cold and frosty with sparkling sunny days. Then as we look longer term all output that stretches out beyond the middle of next week still show the Atlantic winning back with all areas becoming milder with some rain at times particularly in the North. However, as has been proven in the last few days that is a million miles away in weather terms and there is plenty of time to suspend any milder air into the UK even further. It is a welcome relief I'm sure for those afflicted by recent floods to see a week or so at least of much drier and cold conditions to alleviate and expedite a slow return to normal life and if you live in the South going on this morning's output there is a real risk of seeing some snow early next week. For many this will be the first time a snow event from the SW such as shown has appeared in the charts in a reasonably short time frame for some years. It will be fascinating to see how this unfolds within the models over the coming days and the longer term prospects too. See you tomorrow for the next instalment. 

Next Update Thursday January 14th 2016 from 09:00

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY JAN 12TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   Low pressure lies over the North Sea today with a strong NW flow across the UK backing Westerly and decreasing tonight as Low pressure and frontal troughs arrive from the West across the UK tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will lie around 1000m or 4000ft today and tomorrow with some snowfall in the form of showers on hills and mountains above around 2000-2500ft

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rain or wintry showers at first. Becoming colder and drier with frost and fog patches likely next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over several more days before it changes to flow South across the UK by the weekend and start to next week. This lasts as well for several days before the flow gradually returns to a more normal West to East flow to the North of Scotland from the middle and end to next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a slow progression away from the current rather cold and unsettled weather as Low pressure slowly moves off to the East by the weekend allowing a strong ridge to cross the UK from the West with cold and frosty conditions. Then next week a slow return to less cold weather following a period of rain or snow moves slowly East over the UK followed by a return to mild SW winds, strong at times and rain at times towards the North and West in particular with some drier spells as well.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar sequence of events through the period with just small variances of timings. The main message is that the rather cold and showery conditions currently and the fine cold weekend soon gives way to Atlantic fronts next week with rain preceded by snow in places leading us into a much more changeable second half to the period with windy and mild weather with rain at times alternating with some dry and cooler conditions behind the fronts bringing the rain as High pressure to the South and Low to the North is maintained.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today is again much more robust and resolute in maintaining a cold theme across the UK well into next week as it shows the High pressure cell both further North and holding back the Atlantic fronts to the West. the resultant conditions will be cold conditions continuing across all areas with some wintry showers near eastern coasts and sharp overnight frosts developing for all inland areas. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure clearing away slowly East late in the week but leaving a legacy of chilly North winds and weak troughs moving South over the UK with cold weather with wintry showers especially near coasts continuing well into the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning teams with the GFS theme of events across the next 10 days as the cold Northerly airflow until the weekend gives way to High pressure, cold and frosty weather over the weekend and then a slow retreat of High pressure away to the SE allows milder SW winds to strengthen across the UK with some rain largely across the North and West while the South looks likely to stay largely dry.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is broadly similar in theme to GEM and GFS too with the same sequence of cold North winds and then calm, cold and frosty weather slowly giving way next week to milder SW winds as the High pressure topples away to the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today is unmoved in it's support to the general theme shown by the majority of output this morning although the breakdown to the eventual return of milder SW winds is a messy one and could result in a day or two of raw weather across the UK early next week with a messy mix of rain and snow around before the SW winds strengthen and push any residual cold air away by the middle and end of next week as High pressure is pulled to the SE of the UK. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure likely to lie to the South or SE of Southern Britain in 10 days time with milder conditions having spread to all areas. Pressure is unlikely to be very low so the South and East could be largely dry and benign but stronger SW winds across the North and West will more than likely lead to some rain at times here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show milder air penetrating the UK next week from the Atlantic with the exception still of UKMO.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts then GFS at 87.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.5 pts over GFS's 63.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.4 pts to 47.1 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   There is a major stand-off in the models this morning which has now been going on for several days. The battle on the face of it is a very one sided one with the majority of all the output maintaining their stance on returning milder Atlantic SW winds across the UK from early next week. In among all this we have UKMO which shows much more resilience to any such breakdown illustrated by the rest of the output and had it been any other model other than UKMO with the exception of ECM I would more easily discount it but as it is and it's persistence and consistency in showing it's pattern I am not so sure. So dealing with the here and now first we have a rather cold and breezy period of weather still between now and the weekend to get through when some windy, rather cold and showery weather persists with some snow on the hills in the North extending to all areas for a time later in the week. Then pressure is shown to build across the UK at the weekend nudging the Northerly flow away over the North Sea and leaving the UK under High pressure with very frosty weather for a time. Then the favoured options shown by the vast majority of output shows a return to milder SW winds and rain at times, chiefly across the North and West whereas the South and East look like becoming largely dry and benign in lighter SW winds. Then as hinted at earlier we have UKMO isolated in showing High pressure further North and angled such that would hold back the Atlantic and maintain cold and frosty weather for longer and while winds remain NE in the SE some wintry showers could be maintained for longer there. It's difficult to ascertain how things would evolve longer term with UKMO as we only have access up to day 6 but using their extended outlooks issued daily I would suggest that it too would gradually fall into line with the milder theme albeit much slower to establish it across the UK than the rest shows. So a good few days of rather cold weather with showers, wintry in places then an undetermined length of period of frosty weather before a return to less cold weather in SW winds is the maintained message this morning with no real sign of anything 'winter wonderlandish' likely for many over the coming few weeks across the UK I'm afraid.

Next Update Wednesday January 13th 2016 from 09:00 

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY JAN 11TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   Low pressure across the UK will ease East out into the North Sea later today with a slowly increasing NW flow across the South and West of the UK bringing showers and sunny spells late today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will lie around 1000m or 4000ft across the UK today and tomorrow with some snowfall in the form of showers on hills and mountains above around 2000-2500ft

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rain or wintry showers at first. Becoming colder and drier with frost and fog patches likely next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over the first week before becoming more variable and harder to interpret in both strength and location in the second week as the synoptic pattern becomes uncertain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a rather cold and wintry showery week to come as winds turn NW with Low pressure meandering around over the North and East of the UK later this week at the same time as pressure gently rises from the West over the weekend. Next week then sees High pressure occasionally give way to Low pressure with some rain at times for a while in slightly less cold air before High pressure gains total control of the UK weather late in the run with frost and fog patches widely night and morning but with some dry, bright and sunny days.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run though with High pressure developing near the UK at the end of the coming week with frosty and cold conditions looking likely for all. Then after a short unsettled and possibly still rather cold period with some snow over the hills especially in the North High pressure builds again very strongly late in the period, over the UK with fine and sunny weather with frost and fog at times overnight. perhaps a little less cold in a SW flow over the NW of the UK for a time later on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today shows rather cold Low pressure drifting slowly East away into Europe through the end of the week and the weekend with the associated unsettled conditions with rain and hill snow at times gradually reducing in quantity as we move into the weekend as a large and blocking High pressure area edges close to Western Ireland by Sunday ensuring dry and fine but cold and very frosty weather across all areas and just the chance of a wintry shower or two still close to the East and SE coasts. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure clearing away slowly East late in the week but leaving a legacy of weakish troughs moving South and East down across the UK in NW or North winds and rising pressure but still with instability great enough to give rise to further wintry showers at times especially near Northern facing coasts and hills.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows increasingly settled but cold weather developing after this weeks rather cold and unsettled conditions with rain and snow in places clearing away East and SE at the weekend. Next week looks fine and dry but cold with very sharp frosts at night before it becomes a little less cold across the North later as a westerly drift from off the Atlantic moves in with the coldest and frostiest weather then likely towards the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is broadly similar in theme to the other output with rising pressure the main theme leading to High pressure centred across the UK by the start of next week displacing the rather cold and unsettled weather with wintry showers that most places will continue to see through this week before sharp night frosts but dry sunny days develop late in the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows a variation of a similar theme of rising pressure leading to a much awaited change towards fine and settled conditions next week. Before we get there there is plenty of showery and rather cold weather to come this week with showers wintry at times with a little snow in places before things dry out and some sharp night frosts develop with some compensatory bright and sunny days take hold. then later in the run into the middle of next week the High pressure area responsible slips South with milder SW winds affecting the Northern half of the UK late in the period and then probably extending slowly South. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure likely to lie close to Southern Britain in 10 days time with fine and settled weather the most likely outcome across the UK through next week with any milder weather restricted to the NW of the UK at that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have all trended together this morning towards a prospect of High pressure based rather cold weather to develop after this weeks rather cold and unsettled conditions.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.8 pts over GFS's 63.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.0 pts to 47.7 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   We finally have a coming together of the models this morning to the extent that I can predict with more confidence and hopefully more accuracy than for a good while on what weather the UK can expect to see over the next few weeks. Starting with this week we have a complex area of Low pressure still lying across the UK giving a mix of rain and showers falling as sleet and snow over the hills today and this mix will continue off and on for another 4-5 days as the whole set-up slips slowly East into Europe as we reach the weekend. With regard to snowfall the hills at least will see some though disruption is likely to be limited to higher ground and in the North with some places seeing none. However, frosts will be much more prevalent with time especially tomorrow night and then more widely from the weekend as pressure builds into the UK from the West slowly displacing the cold Northerly flow and wintry showers out of the East and SE by Sunday. By the start of next week most output shows High pressure well in control, something we haven't seen for months with light winds, sunny days and very sharp night frosts the order of the days. Then as we move into the latter parts of the output this morning it's all about how quickly and in what way we slowly lose the influence of the High pressure towards a more traditional Atlantic based pattern or any other weather type. This is of course well in the future and is pointless dwelling on detail but in summary today and with some confidence I can say that cold or rather cold weather is here to stay for the next 10 days at least with increasingly sharp frosts and eventually dry weather the main ingredients to enjoy finally displacing the endless mild and wet weather we have all had to endure for what seems an eternity of late and while I can't offer a snowy picture this morning's output does at least endorse something more normal for the time of Winter we are in. Lets hope that the coming together of the models with the pattern now settled can be maintained within the output over this week. 

Next Update on Tuesday January 12th 2016 at 09:00 approx

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY JAN 10TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   An increasingly cold and unstable and showery Westerly flow will affect Southern Britain throughout the next 24-48hrs while Low pressure moving into the North of the UK ensures cloudy weather with some rain or snow in lighter winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies between 1700ft asl over Scotland to nearer 5000ft across Southern England. Snow is expected across Scottish and Northern English hills today, tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across Southern England and France over the first week before ridging strongly North in the second week as High pressure builds near the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows unsettled and cold conditions throughout the first week this morning as complex Low pressure across and near the UK make day to day differences in weather hard to pin down. However, rain, sleet and snow looks possible for all. Then High pressure slowly makes more inroads across the UK in the second week drying things up with quite chilly conditions maintained for the most part with frost at night as High pressure builds across the UK from the East.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run though with High pressure setting up shop to the South of the UK in week 2 milder conditions are more likely with rain at times as troughs cross East across the UK with rain at times in temperatures returning to near average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today shows chances of a much more sustained cold period across the UK, certainly lasting through this week and next weekend and probably longer. With complex Low pressure ensuring a lot of instability in the atmosphere outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow at times look possible anywhere in the UK throughout. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure and troughing across the UK all week with rain or snow at times in temperatures colder than of late and winds still quite strong at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning brings colder conditions across the UK too with complex Low pressure and low uppers aloft ensuring a lot of cold and showery conditions lasting through to next weekend when High pressure to the NW slips SE across the UK with cold, dry, bright days with sharp overnight frosts for all to start the second week as a strong ridge is maintained across the UK by then from the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is loosely similar in theme to GEM with showery Low pressure giving way to High pressure slap bang across the UK by the end of next weekend displacing the previous cold and showery weather with some snow in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows a theme of High pressure developing across the UK next weekend and into the second week bringing fine, cold and very frosty weather to all of the UK following a week of cold and showery conditions with some snow at times over the hills with rain and sleet at lower elevations through the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure likely to be close to the UK in 10 days time with fine and dry weather with frosty nights the most likely scenario though there is some suggestion of milder conditions for the North and West on a SW flow by the end of the period there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output shows a slow transitions to dry and fine conditions later next weekend with less cold conditions returning later in the extended outlooks first in the West and NW.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.9 pts over GFS's 63.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.7 pts to 47.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   The upcoming cold spell has probably been the most difficult thing for the models to get a handle on in recent times and even now there are still plenty of longer term options shown which could change the longevity and the longer term weather conditions across the UK a week or so from now. However, there are a few common themes beginning to emerge between the different models this morning. Whatever happens longer terms all models agree on the UK becoming rather cold this week and with various areas of Low pressure meandering around the UK all week showery conditions look like continuing for many days. As the air becomes colder over the South in the coming days these areas will join the North in receiving a cocktail of precipitation from these showers and almost anywhere could see at least a dusting of snow through the week with frosts at night becoming much more likely. Then by next weekend it looks like High pressure will be building across the UK by one source or another to quieten conditions down and bring a spell of dry and frosty weather across all areas of the UK for a while at least. GFS today then shows it's usual of late return to less cold and unsettled weather with rain at times as things return to a more mobile pattern of Low pressure passing East to the North of the UK but to be honest things could be complicated by all sorts of issues as cold air across the UK and Western Europe could prove more stubborn to shift than is currently shown. So in simplistic terms the weather looks like being rather cold and showery over this coming week before drier and frosty weather maintains a cold theme through next weekend which leads us into a much more questionable period thereafter with plenty of options likely to be thrown up through model runs in the week to come for the period of weather in the second week, not all of them mild.

Next Update on Monday January 11th 2016 at 09:00 approx 

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 9TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A deep and complex area of Low pressure will move slowly east into the British isles today and tomorrow with bands of showery rain  circulating North and East across the UK at various times through the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies between 1700ft asl over Scotland to nearer 5000ft across Southern England. Snow is expected across Scottish and Northern English hills today, tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across Southern England and France over the first week before slowly returning to a more Northerly latitude later, still in a generally West to East movement.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows unsettled conditions throughout the period this morning. The Low pressure complex currently to the West of the UK will move East across the UK through the weekend and the first half of next week. Colder air will seep South to all of the UK with a mix of rain, sleet and snow at times for all, the snow chiefly over the higher ground and in the North. Then late next week and through Week 2 a more changeable but less cold period develops as winds turn back to a west or SW direction with rain at times and temperatures returning to near average or somewhat above at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run with the first week seeing some chilly weather with rain at times, turning to snow over higher ground. Then on this run the second half of the run will see more changeable conditions with temperatures near to average and dry weather outweighing occasional wet spells as High pressure areas close to the South at times interrupt the passage of Low pressure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure remaining in control of the UK weather next week, largely positioned over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain and colder air too will see this turning to sleet and snow at times especially on the higher ground and in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure and troughing slow to clear to the east of the UK early next week with rather cold and unsettled weather with rain and snow at times almost anywhere.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning brings colder conditions across the UK next week too behind complex Low pressure moving East out of the UK early in the week. The theme then is for a very slow transition to drier weather as High pressure edges across from the SW before things become less cold and changeable again over next weekend and the start to the second week as winds turn more Westerly across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps rather cold and showery weather next week with some snow showers over higher ground almost anywhere through the week. High pressure gradually builds across the UK by next weekend with frosts at night in places..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows unsettled and relatively cold weather next week with showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow as Low pressure continues to meander around over or close to the UK before slowly shifting away East later next week and next weekend as High pressure builds strongly later in the run leading to a change to fine, cold and frosty weather to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a fairly slack pattern overall with the highest pressure near the UK suggesting a drier spell developing next weekend with fine weather and frost at night with daytime temperatures just a little below average at worst.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output shows a slow transitions to drier conditions later next week with less cold conditions returning later in the extended outlooks.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.7 pts over GFS's 64.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.7 pts to 47.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   Evolutions between the models continue to differ somewhat in the longer term outputs this morning although there is some common ground showing up in amongst the differences. Firstly the heights over Greenland shown strongly earlier this week have all but vanished by later next week and which means to maintain cold across the UK we have to rely on the very cold conditions currently over some of Europe warding off the Atlantic. In the short term we still have several days of unsettled and often wet weather with snowfall restricted to the higher Northern elevations and flooding remains an issue I'm afraid for a while yet. Through the early days of next week the Low pressure complex across the UK delivering all this rain will edge away to the east but it looks a slow and arduous process keeping unsettled conditions for many right out towards next weekend. With winds flowing down from a more Northerly sourced direction more and more of us will see some snow in the precipitation and while Southern parts should not see to many problems from this Northern high ground and perhaps very locally in the South may see some lying snow and as the week progresses frosts at night will become more coherent for many. Then by next weekend it looks like High pressure will develop close to or over the UK with a welcome change to fine and dry conditions with sharp overnight frosts and a chance for the wet areas to dry out. Longer term models then show the most favoured option is for milder Atlantic winds to move back across the UK from the west with rain at times but I should note that while Europe remains cold any milder weather may have a job to fight through the cold air to our East and I expect more developments for this period of time to be toyed with in the models over the coming days. So summarising finally we should still be seeing some cold and unsettled conditions next week and many will see a little snow before things dry out and gradually become less cold again thereafter, all this a marked improvement on the extremely mild and wet conditions a while ago.

Next Update on Sunday January 10th 2016 at 09:00 approx 

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 8TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A showery trough will move East over England and Wales this morning followed by a SW flow. The persistent trough over NE Scotland will ease away Northeast today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies between 1700ft asl over NE Scotland to nearer 3500ft across Southern England. Snow is expected across higher Scottish hills today, tonight and tomorrow and extending to higher Northern English hills as well with time.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over the first week before slowly returning to a SW to NE flow across the UK later in the run.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows unsettled conditions throughout the period this morning. The Low pressure complex currently to the West of the UK will move East across the UK through the weekend and the first half of next week. Colder air will seep South to all of the UK with a mix of rain, sleet and snow at times for all, the snow chiefly over the higher ground and in the North. Then late next week and through Week 2 Low pressure from the Azores is shown to move NE across the NW with wet and windy conditions and average temperatures returning to all areas a theme which then sees us through to the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run today with solid support for colder conditions for all of the UK for a time next week with some snow in places. Low pressure remains largely in control too reinforced on a more northerly latitude as we enter the second week with a return to wet and windy conditions at times for all areas through Week 2 in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure clear East out of the UK early next week with a NW then Northerly flow across the UK through the early and middle part of next week. Rain and showers with snow on hills at first will turn more to snow showers near coastal regions and dry frosty weather inland through the middle days of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data reasonably well this morning with the complex Low pressure and trough complex across the UK this weekend simplifying to a cold and showery NW or North flow early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning brings colder conditions across the UK next week too but then begins to follow a more GFS type route with milder and wet weather sweeping back NE across England and Wales later in the period and leaving Scotland only in the risk of any snow or sleet in colder air by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains its theme of cold weather extending to all of the UK next week in a Northerly sourced airflow. With troughing scattered about across the UK there will probably be showery outbreaks of sleet and snow especially near the coasts while inland frosts will be much more pronounced than recently.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today continues to show an excursion towards more seasonal conditions for a time next week though the progress and extent as far as Southern Britain is muted. Nevertheless it will become cold and brighter with wintry showers next week before Low pressure from the SW brings rain preceded by snow in places displacing any deep cold before High pressure follows across the UK from the West with High pressure parked across the UK with cold, crisp days and frosty nights for many by day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is still quite a good one for those seeking cold with the pressure much higher over Greenland at day 10 than the operational shows meaning that many members must be going for this more wintry set-up. Low pressure is hinted at too close to the UK and to the SW with pressure also programmed to be high again over Spain and Portugal. So this chart is not very useful today in indicating 10 day prospects.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output continues to favour cold weather developing but much more short-lived and widespread than thought earlier especially from GFS.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 88.1 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.7 pts over GFS's 63.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.5 pts to 46.2 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   The synoptics across the UK continue to paint a bleak picture at least in the shorter term with regard to pressure remaining Low with spells of rain and showers for almost anywhere with snow on the hills as a Low pressure complex drifts slowly East across the UK over the weekend and start to next week. This continues to bring the risk of flooding to areas which least need it and temperatures though cold in the North will see average temperatures in the South. Then next week a change is still predicted to take place from all the models as colder air is still likely to spread South to all areas for a time. The method of how this takes place is extremely messy  with the problem seeming to be the failure to clear the complex Low pressure across the UK cleanly East to Europe which if occurred would enable a clean sweep for cold Northerlies to come down across all of the UK and leading to a cold spell. Unfortunately this morning GFS and to some extent GEM has developed a theme that a Low pressure area near the Azores will be attracted towards the UK later next week due to the failure to clear Low pressure cleanly East out of the UK and with pressure rising over Spain aiding it to be pulled NE towards Scotland and ending a very muted cold period as far as the South of Britain is concerned. It would also bring a lot more rain and hill snow to areas that need to dry out and also create a lot of disappointment in those folks looking forward to what look liked for a while a prolonged cold period. Interestingly on the ECM Operational this morning all High pressure near Greenland has vanished by Day 10 but at least it's ensemble data is less dramatic about the weakening of pressure there. I think what we are seeing this morning is proof of how difficult it is to get cold into the UK in the first place let alone it lasting any considerable time. This spell looks to be going much the same way and while it will get colder next week the intensity, extent and longevity have all been drastically reduced today. However, there is still some days to go before any cold arrives and that means plenty of model swings both up and down in the days ahead and while I have to admit some disappointment in the models today I still feel all is not lost next week with some surprise developments in favour of snow and cold still likely to crop up.

Next Update on Saturday January 8th 2016 at 09:00 approx

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY JAN 7TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A trough will move NE across remaining Northern and Eastern parts becoming slow moving across NE Scotland again with strong SE winds. Behind the front a somewhat showery Westerly flow will replace the front before a new showery trough crosses East over England and Wales tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies between 1500ft asl over NE Scotland to nearer 4000ft across Southern England. Snow is expected across higher Scottish hills later today, tonight and tomorrow and extending to higher Northern English hills as well by then.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over the next 4-5 days as the flow stalls across the Atlantic and ridges North. It then returns SE across Ireland later and then back east across or to the South of the UK late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows a slow change to much colder conditions across the UK with rain at times turning to snow for all higher ground at times next week and lower ground too at times. The axis of the cold moving South is shown to be slow and quite laboured as milder air from Low pressure close to the South could hold up its progress over the extreme South especially later when alternating less cold and cold periods are more likely across the UK as Low pressure tracks West to East across the UK renewing cold NW or North winds behind them.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run today with solid support for colder conditions for all of the UK next week. Low pressure remains largely in control too with Greenland High pressure too far away to exert total influence enabling some milder conditions to filter into the South at times later with a messy mix of rain, sleet and snow across the UK throughout the latter stages of the output.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure still in control of the weather next week and looks less supportive of widespread cold this morning as it dd yesterday. the problem here is the inclusion of higher pressure over Iberia which keeps a Westerly flow across Southern Britain with the coldest weather held to the NW. Nevertheless colder weather will affect the UK with rain or showers continuing and increasing amounts of snow in the North and on the highest ground of the South too at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show fronts and Low pressure across the UK gradually transferring to the East of the UK early next week opening the door to a slow change to colder weather with rain at times turning to snow especially in the North but more slowly in the South.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning brings colder conditions across the UK more cleanly next week as Low pressure transfers away east from the UK to Northern Europe and pressure builds across the Atlantic. The resultant Northerly flow would bring wintry showers of sleet and snow and widespread frosts at night with High pressure close by to the west by Day 10. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows colder air too slipping down across the UK next week but not as a result of a Greenland High but slow moving cold pools of Low pressure which remain in situ across the UK next week maintaining unsettled conditions with rain and snow at times, with the snow at times in the hills almost everywhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a very messy journey towards cold weather too next week as Low pressure transfers some of it's energy away to the East but maintains a lot of troughing across the UK keeping unsettled conditions going with rain, sleet and snow almost anywhere at times next week and into next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is a good one for cold lovers today as it looks favoured for Northerly winds across the UK with High pressure to the West and NW. With a Jet stream averaging at a point between members to the South and SW of the UK the most likely weather type has to be cold weather with wintry showers especially in the North and East..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output continues to favour cold weather developing from next week with a more realistic approach to how things are likely to turn out next week than was shown last night.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 87.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.1 pts over GFS's 62.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 47.8 pts to 45.3 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   The models continue to point towards a much colder regime across the UK from what we have endured of late although I'm sure folks reading this and having seen last nights output will be unsatisfied with what's on offer this morning. Nevertheless, there is solid support for colder air to replace the average temperatures across the UK currently and the general pattern in the next few weeks is thousands of miles from the pattern we had in December. We still have another 4-5 days of deep Low pressure in control of the weather over the UK with the continued mix of rain and strong winds at times for all. The air is already cold enough over the hills and high ground of Scotland for some snow and this theme will extend to the hills of Northern England and Wales too over the weekend. Then as we move into the new working week things get far more interesting for Southerners too. The likely outcome is that part of the complex Low pressure areas across the UK will shift to the East and allow colder NW or North sourced winds to  move down across the UK. The problem lies with High pressure areas. The one which develops over Greenland is almost too strong and sets up a strong North flow down the Atlantic and helps maintain Low pressure closer to the East of the UK and with some evidence of higher pressure over Spain it takes a long tome for any true cold to reach the South. All these complexities mean the UK doesn't get a clean clearance of Low pressure to the East that's needed and instead we maintain a complex trough across the UK in a lot of model output this morning. The positioning of this trough is paramount to what happens weather-wise across the UK in terms of whether it's rain or snowfall we receive but what is quite concerning to me more than anything is that we might not lose the high levels of precipitation across the UK that we so desperately need to at least offer the flood stricken parts of the UK a break in the wet conditions. So despite this negativity I'm sure the message today is still one of colder weather with rather cold or cold conditions likely for all from early next week for the foreseeable future. Some snowfall is inevitable probably for most at some point but whether it will be enough to satisfy the needs of snow lovers remains to be solved by the models in the coming days. However, the synoptics are right to bring cold to the UK for the next few weeks and although we may have to be patient down here in the South I still feel with time we remain in the best synoptic set-up for cold in the UK next week and I expect a lot more changes in the output up and down in the coming days and in the lead up to next week. I'll be back tomorrow to report on how things have developed and transpired by then.

Next Update on Friday January 7th 2016 at 09:00 approx

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY JAN 6TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A new depression will swing a set of troughs NE across the UK again later today, these becoming slow moving again across the far NE and followed by a somewhat showery Westerly flow across Southern and western areas tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from between 1500ft just to the NE of Scotland to nearer 4000ft over Southern England rising somewhat for a time tonight before falling again to around 5000ft again tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over the next week before a shift of orientation to more of a NW to SE flow across the UK through the second week as a deep trough lies across Scandinavia.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows two sections this morning with the next week seeing Low pressure sinking down across the UK through the period maintaining cloudy and sometimes wet and windy weather with sunshine and showers too giving some snowfall at times on the hills with time. Then through next week Low pressure drifts off slowly East and allows cold air to sink South overall areas. On this run the air is unstable too with snow and sleet at times, almost anywhere for a time before a short drier interlude under High pressure moving across briefly gives rise to some frosty night and bright days before a return to cold and unsettled weather develops again later with more rain and snow as winds switch to the East.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning with the second week showing all the interest for cold lovers. In the meantime there remains a lot of complex Low pressure over the UK with rain and showers at times and some snow on the hills before all areas become cold and unsettled from early next week with some snow at times, even in the South as low pressure to the East throws cold North or NE winds across the UK until the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure still in control of the weather but with subtle changes in positioning meaning a stark change for the UK next week. With rain and showers the main message between today and the start of next week is rain or showers with snow on the hills before all areas become cold next week with NW winds and snow showers extending down across the UK to all areas by midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a continuation of the unsettled spell with strong winds and rain at times on troughs repeatedly driven across the UK in a SW flow decelerating and becoming slow moving across the UK with rain and showers at times for all and snow at times on the hills of the North.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning is somewhat different longer term as it shows the current wet and windy weather of the next 4-5 days slowly giving way to dry and bright weather with frosty nights as High pressure builds across the UK later next week. The transition period does show a spell of cold North based winds with some wintry precipitation across parts of the UK for a time before the better weather arrives 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a slow transition from the current wet and Low pressure based theme towards a colder and unstable NW slow  as Low pressure moves off towards the East and pressure builds across the Atlantic. This would mean the cold air would turn precipitation to snow at times even in the South next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a somewhat lesser wintry theme longer term although in the mid term i.e. early next week it also shows a spell of cold NW winds bringing wintry weather SE to many areas as the UK based Low pressure of the weekend goes off to the East and pressure builds over the Atlantic. By day 10 the coldness has modified across the UK but it does look like a Northerly could be renewed soon after the term of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows Low pressure likely to be to the East and High to the West in 10 days time. A generally Northerly flow is likely across the UK with temperatures well down on recent times with frost at night and wintry showers in all exposed locations but a lot of dry and bright weather inland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output continues to strengthen towards drier and colder conditions developing across the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.1 pts over GFS's 61.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 47.9 pts to 46.1 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   For those seeking cold this morning the models have delivered a set of output that I feel many of them will be happy with this morning. There is almost a 100% guarantee now that at long last we are soon to lose the continuous conveyor belt of Atlantic Low pressure and attendant rain and showers and swap it with a colder flow coming down from the North as Low pressure transfers to a point to the East of the UK while High pressure builds North across the Atlantic. In the short term we still have 4-5 days of familiar Low pressure often parked over the UK and continuing to bring spells of rain and showers and snow over the hills of the North. It's then in the early days of next week when this Low pressure is pulled East to Europe and cold North or NW winds are pushed down across the UK aided by rising pressure over the Atlantic and a marked slow down in the Jet flow. All areas look at risk of some snowfall next week but the favoured coastal locations pointing North will see more than sheltered inland locations which look most likely to see the change in the form of sharp frosts by night and cold crisp days rather than snowfall. Then the question is how long will it last? Well in terms of GFS quite a while this morning as there appears to be a second surge possible later when GFS shows the chance of an easterly developing. ECM on the other hand shows a more measured response to that question and it poses a question at day 10 in as much as there appears a strong chance that the evolution from then also shows a second cold surge likely soon after mid month. The one thing that I can confidently say and have been saying since the hints of cold from the North were shown some days ago is that it is going to happen but for how long this pattern remains once here is open for debate. The pressure pattern look much more favourable for cold next week that at any stage this Winter so far with a Jet stream well South over Europe and High over the Atlantic. Persistent Low pressure to the East should encourage runaway Low pressure from the NW to feed SE over the UK at times each time reinforcing a cold North feed behind them and if High pressure can eventually ridge all the way into Greenland who knows what may develop longer term. Interesting model watching indeed in the days ahead. 

Next Update on Thursday January 7th 2016 at 09:00 approx 

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY JAN 5TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A filling depression lies across Southern parts of England and Wales, becoming slow moving with a chilly SE flow over the NE with an occluded front lying slow moving in situ. Further frontal system will approach the SW later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from between 1500ft just to the NE of Scotland to nearer 5000ft over Southern England. Snowfall can be expected across the hills of Scotland today and tomorrow especially the mountains of NE Scotland.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Continuing unsettled and very windy at times with further heavy rain or showers at times. Perhaps drier and colder for many later next week

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream incessantly crossing quickly East across the Atlantic and generally to the South of the UK for the next week to 10 days. Towards the end of the run there is some indication of the flow returning to lie North of Scotland still travelling in an Eastwards direction.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows deep Low pressure areas affecting the UK over the next 10 days or so. The centre of the depressions will often lie across the UK for the next 10 days or so bringing rain and showers to all areas and as the air turns somewhat colder for a time next week some of the rain could turn to snow over all hills and winds turn more towards the North. Then High pressure slips down to the South and SE of the UK and builds at the end of the run with winds turning to a milder Southerly direction again with dry, benign weather conditions likely for most and any rain restricted to the far NW but with some frost and fog patches by night in the South.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning up until Day 10 with rain and strong winds in largely cyclonic conditions with temperatures falling somewhat next week with more snow on the hills at times and some frosts at night. The departure from the Operational Run leads us into another wet and windy period to close out the run as Low pressure from the Atlantic streams back across the UK with rain and strong winds for many in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure in total control of the UK weather over the next 6 days with rain and strong winds at times as renewed Low pressure replaces the existing centre over Southern Britain later this week. Temperatures will largely remain close to average through this period with some snowfall on northern high ground at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a continuation of the unsettled spell with strong winds and rain at times on troughs repeatedly driven across the UK in a SW flow decelerating and becoming slow moving across the NE of the UK with broadly windy and showery SW winds elsewhere in average temperatures overall.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also shows Low pressure close to or over the UK over the next week with strong winds, rain and showers circling the UK throughout. Temperatures close to average then fall back to rather cold levels next week with winds more Northerly allowing cold air to sink South to all next week with showers turning to snow and frost at night becoming more widespread. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains a very volatile situation over the enxt week with strong winds and heavy rain at times for all. A notable storm system is shown to cross the South early next week introducing severe gales and heavy rain followed by colder conditions in it's wake as winds swing to the NW with showers turning more readily to snow over the hills over many parts of the UK by day 7.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows another week of strong winds and heavy rain at times as Low pressure remains anchored over the UK over the next week before shifting slowly off to the East. After the heavy rain and showers of the days to come winds swinging North or NW next week bring colder air to all with some wintry showers likely even in the South for a time next week before High pressure to the west ridges in later drying things up but giving a more seasonal flavour of rather cold conditions with frost and fog patches night and morning and a few wintry showers still in the East and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows Low pressure likely to the NE in 10 days with a strong ridge of High pressure just to the West of the UK. With the Jet stream still showing averaging South and West of the UK lying on the cold side of it would mean cold weather with wintry showers in places especially the North and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output has strengthened towards drier and colder conditions developing across the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 64.9 pts over GFS's 61.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM ties with GFS at 46.2 pts each. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   There are increasing signs of change at last within the output this morning towards drier and somewhat colder conditions across the UK from next week. As is usual when model outputs show these type of changes in Winter there are a lot of rollercoaster moments along the way with output showing all sorts of options between wintry armageddon and just a two day cold snap and all things in between and while I personally don't think that anything remarkably cold or snowy is likely a marked change in temperatures to what we have become accustomed to this season so far is likely for all areas. Before we get to that we have another week of deeply unsettled weather as the UK lies under Low pressure giving spells of wind and rain affecting all parts with snow on the hills of the North but temperatures near average for many. It's not until the eary days of next week when the deep low complex across the UK drifts slowly east opening the door to the North and NW for cold winds to accelerate South across the UK. With pressure only recovering slowly wintry showers will probably affect all areas for several days with some wintriness possible even in the South. Frosts at night then look like becoming widespread continuing on into the latter part of next week as it looks like High pressure to the West ridges across the UK for a time with frost and fog night and morning becoming a welcome shift from wind and rain. The jury is then open on how long this lasts and there remains some output which shifts things back towards a westerly milder pattern quite soon but with the Jet flow predicted to be much weaker by then the chances of High pressure hanging around and becoming a much more dominant force in our weather is greater than at anytine recently. So it's a case of watch the models over the coming days and continue to ride the rollercoaster of the ups and downs of an upcoming cold spell always fraught with danger across the UK. Things I think will not become clearer until the coming weekend when some greater cross model agreement on how things pan out next week will arise.

Next Update on Wednesday January 6th 2016 at 09:00 approx

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY JAN 4TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A deep depression is moving slowly East and SE while filling slowly across Southern Britain with a showery flow across the South. North and East Britain will be affected by slow moving occluded troughs in a strong SE to East flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from between 2000ft just to the NE of Scotland to above 5000ft over SW England. Snowfall can be expected across the hills of Scotland today and tomorrow especially the mountains of NE Scotland

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Continuing unsettled and very windy at times with further heavy rain or showers at times. Perhaps drier and colder for many later next week

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream incessantly crossing quickly East across the Atlantic and Southern England and France. Low pressure remains close by over the UK with the flow moving slightly further North in the second week but maintaining a strong and undulating profile across the Atlantic and the British Isles still even at Day 14.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows 14 days of unsettled and often windy conditions with gales and severe gales at times. In the first week rainfall will be very variable under slow moving Low pressure with colder air across the North giving rise to some snowfall over the hills. Then in the second week a severe storm is shown with severe gales for the South early next week which is the forerunner of a more undulating pattern between wet and windy spells and brighter colder weather with more scattered showers is shown but with only short drier spells in largely average temperatures still present late in the run.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning with the wet and very windy spell continuing over the next 10 days or so with a build of pressure across the UK late in the two week period bringing a change to fine and dry conditions for many with temperatures close to average with some night frosts and perhaps occasional rain again in the NW later as a SW flow there is renewed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows a continuation of very wet and windy weather at times through the rest of this week and the weekend as Low pressure remains deep and centred across both the UK and the Atlantic Ocean with cyclonic winds across the UK throughout bringing rain and strong winds at times with some snow on northern hills and temperatures near to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a continuation of the unsettled spell with strong winds and rain at times on troughs repeatedly driven across the UK in a SW flow decelerating and becoming slow moving early in the week across the NE of the UK with broadly windy and showery SW winds elsewhere.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also shows an unsettled and often windy 10 days of weather to come across the UK with temperatures near average for most of the time. Winds will exceed gale or severe gale at times especially near coasts of the South and West. Later in the period winds are shown to turn to a colder NW or North flow and with continued unsettled weather across the UK rain will turn to snow at times and frost at night will become more widespread as pressure becomes High to the West and Low to the East. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM like UKMO shows continued Low pressure dominance just to the West and over the UK for the entire week long run with maintained unsettled weather with wind and rain at times mixed with brighter and showery spells in temperatures generally close to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows little respite in the wet and windy theme again this morning gradually drying out later next week as the whole Low pressure belt shifts east from the Atlantic over the UK to Northern Europe later with a pressure rise to the west allowing winds to turn more Northerly for a time early next week bringing wintry showers South to many areas and frosts at night at least for a time. unfortunately the mouth watering chart for coldies for day 10 has not been replicated this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart looks similar to last nights with low pressure likely to lie to the NE in 10 days with Low pressure in the Western Atlantic too. In between and angled just to the West of the UK is a void where higher pressure is likely sufficient to at least offer an opportunity of drier and somewhat colder weather  for a time at least across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output longer term today shows no significant let up in the basically wet and windy conditions though a growing trend for High pressure to build temporarily at least to the West of the UK is hinted at still from 10 days.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  at 96.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.5 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts then GFS at 86.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 64.5 pts over GFS's 60.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 46.2 pts to 45.7 pts. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   All eyes will be drawn towards the ECM model this morning which did throw out a mouthwatering change in the weather next week resulting from High pressure development to the West and NW. Unfortunately but perhaps not surprisingly this has been watered down this morning but the general message is still present. S how does this fit in with the rest of the output this morning. Well in the interim period the general message for the next week or so remains very unsettled with Low pressure well South of normal positions across the UK or just to the West. While rainfall amounts will be very variable due to a lot of days of showery weather some longer spells of rain are still likely for all as troughs cross NE in the flow still getting hung up across NE Britain where some of the wettest weather will be experienced. Some of the showers will be heavy and squally too with hail and thunder possible across the South and West at times. Temperatures over the next week look like maintaining largely average values, cold enough at times for some snow across the hills of the North and NE. Then we come to next week when there remains plenty of evidence for limited change with rain and wind at times continuing in an Atlantic flow to other output which shows a drier interlude developing as the earlier mentioned rise of pressure to the West takes place. This would switch winds to a more northerly direction across the UK at least for a time with colder air moving South with some wintry showers at times near exposed coasts and hills and some frosts at night. My thoughts this morning remain as last night and I still think that despite a dampening down of the colder message within the models this morning I feel that colder weather will arrive from the North next week. It more importantly will mean drier weather for many with far less wind and rain and with lower temperatures overall frosts at night could develop, something quite rare this Winter so far. As for snowfall we need more runs and clarification nearer the time the exact synoptics later next week but if the Northerly flow does develop for a time then the usual areas exposed to the North could see some snow in the form of showers  

Next Update on Tuesday January 5th 2016 at 09:00 approx 

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

3 minutes ago, heccygabber said:

So who thinks these cold charts will verify? I doubt it.

It's a wild goose chase, over and over again

 

Yes it often is and it maybe again. However, cold spells including Easterlies far more commonly start life off from a Northerly.

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

Just back from a New Year Break with friends in the Midlands and thought I'd have a look at the ECM tonight. I almost fell off my chair. I'm pretty sure it will be something of an outlier but with strong support of tonight's 10 day mean which itself is much better than this mornings I feel this time there should be more reason for optimism if it's cold and snow your after than what was shown out East a week ago. Even if it doesn't come off as strongly as shown I'm reasonably confident that a move towards colder weather is likely to develop from the North and not the East from around mid January. See you guys in the morning.

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY JAN 3RD 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A deep depression lies to the West of the UK with troughs swinging NE across the South and West before deceleratiung across NE Britain with a strong SE flow ahead of them and a showery SW flow behind them.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from between 1500ft just to the NE of Scotland to above 5000ft over SW England. Snowfall can be expected across the hills of Scotland today and tomorrow especially the mountains of NE Scotland

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Continuing unsettled and very windy at times with further heavy rain or showers at times with snow possible on Northern hills for a time next week at least.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream incessantly crossing quickly East across the Atlantic and Southern England and France. Low pressure remains close by over the UK with the flow moving slightly further North in the second week but maintaining a strong profile across the Atlantic and the British Isles still even at Day 14.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows 14 days of unsettled and often windy conditions with gales and severe gales at times. In the first week rainfall will be very variable under slow moving Low pressure with colder air across the North giving rise to some snowfall over the hills. Then in the second week a severe storm is shown early next week which then brings a more undulating pattern between wet and windy spells and brighter colder weather with more scattered showers and quieter weather though the main theme of the weather remains very volatile and Atlantic driven throughout.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning with the wet and very windy spell continuing over the next 10 days or so with a build of pressure across the UK late in the two week period bringing a change to fine, cold and settled weather across the UK with sharp overnight frosts, light winds and freezing fog patches but sunny spells by day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows a wet and very windy week to come as Low pressure remains over and later to the NW of the UK with a strong Westerly flow across the UK driving bands of rain and showers across all areas with snow at times over the Northern hills in the form of showers but more generally over the hills of the NE in the short term in a cold SE flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a continuation of the unsettled spell with strong winds and rain at times on troughs repeatedly driven across the UK in a SW flow decelerating and becoming slow moving early in the week across the NE of the UK.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also shows an unsettled and often windy 10 days of weather to come across the UK with temperatures near average for most of the time. Winds will exceed gale or severe gale at times especially near coasts of the South and West. Later in the period a spell of severe gsles are possible more widely as a vigorous Low swings NE over the NW bringing mild air temporarily to the South and East but more importantly heavy rainfall yet again especially over the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows no differences to the rest with winds off the Atlntic throughout, strong at times and delivering spells of rain and showers in association of Low pressure either over or to the NW of the UK. Some cold air under a SE flow in the NE will be swept away from midweek with temperatures generally near normal and perhaps a bit above at times in the SE by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows little respite too with deep Low pressure across the UK throughout with cyclonic winds, sometimes strong to gale force and accompanied by rain and showers with snow on the hills of the North at times, In the very end days of the run a slowing Jet flow across the Atlantic pumps up a ridge which looks like it could give rise to somewhat drier, quieter and colder weather across the UK soon after the expiry of the Day 10 period as it drifts across the UK from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart remains mostly Atlantic driven though small but subtle differences lie within the chart. It looks as though Low pressure will divide to both the NE and NW with room for a cold ridge to develop close to the UK at that time with the Jet Stream likely to remain well South of the UK. So while some rain at times remains the overall theme temperatures close to average and spells of lighter winds could give rise to some night frosts and drier spells.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output longer term today shows no significant let up in the basically wet and windy conditions though a growing trend for High pressure to build temporarily at least to the West of the UK is hinted at still from 10 days.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  at 96.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.5 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts then GFS at 86.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 64.5 pts over GFS's 60.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 46.2 pts to 45.7 pts. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS We remain focused on looking into the realms of fantasy time points within the models this morning to see prospects of any major change in the overall theme of wet and windy weather across the UK. There remains little desire from any output to remove deep Low pressure areas from lying either across the UK or close to the NW each bringing spells of wet and very windy weather with gales at times and severe gales possible too in places later. Temperatures look like being close to average which in the strong winds will feel colder than the mercury suggests especially when coupled with the rain. Snowfall will occur locally, mostly in the NE of the UK early in the week and more generally in showers over Central and Northern high ground later. There will be some mild air over SE Europe at times later which may flirt with the SE at times in the second week but the theme remains too wet and wild to be of great significance in the UK on this morning's output. In the longer term there remains some interest in lifting pressure levels somewhat from the West as the Jet flow weakens and High pressure is ridged North somewhat over the Atlantic. This develops into a full blown cold anticyclone on the last frames of the GFS Operational run this morning and ECM too reflects this possibility too over the Atlantic in it's final day which if verified would give a welcome relief from the rain and winds of recently and give rise to some frosty weather unseen so far this Winter just outside of the term of it's run this morning. It is unfortunate that this change is still so far out and subject to moderation or removal from the runs in the coming days but changes have to start somewhere and while there might not be the first signs of a very wintry spell of weather shown something quieter and more seasonal in the form of dry, cold weather with frosty nights would at least be quite welcome to many I'm sure. Lets hope it develops and spreads between the upcoming outputs in the days to come. 

Next Update on Monday January 4th 2016 at 09:00 approx

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

I wouldn't write off January this early in the month but I can understand the frustration after the recent failure. What makes things more frustrating is the recurring desire to raise heights to the South and SW on the GFS runs more than once recently and tonight's 12z has endorsed this further unfortunately.

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 2ND 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A filling depression will move slowly NE across the UK today followed by an active trough associated with a deep Atlantic depression following NE across the UK tomorrow followed by a vigorous and showery SW flow across the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from 4000ft asl to 6000ftasl North to South across the UK today with snowfall restricted to higher summits of Scotland today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Continuing unsettled and very windy at times with further heavy rain or showers at times with snow possible on Northern hills for a time next week at least.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream shows the flow remaining strong across the Atlantic for most of the next few weeks. For most of the time it runs East just to the South of the UK, strongly at times before a slow drift back North through Week 2 culminating in a change to a more undulating flow over and around the UK towards the end of the period in a somewhat lighter form than currently.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows the next week to 10 days as being wet and very windy at times across the UK in variable and cyclonic winds as Low pressure continues to move across the UK from the West. They then move somewhat more to the North by a weeks time with SW gales or severe gales delivering spells of heavy rain mixed with showery periods and at any time there looks the risk of some snow over Northern hills at times. Then in the second week winds switch more to the North or NW with colder weatehr for all with wintry showers and frost at night with pressure rising to the SW leaving the UK in a breezy and somewhat chilly NW flow to end the period with further showers in the North and East.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning with the wet and very windy spell continuing over the next 10 days or so with the same build of pressure to the South late in the period bringing drier weather to all, still with some rain and strong Westerly breezes in the North and West with some rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today continues to look very unsettled across the UK next week as Low pressure close to Southern England early in the week only slowly fills and ebbs away East to be absorbed by a new powerful Atlantic Low pressure South of Iceland towards the end of next week sweeping more heavy rain and strong winds NE across the UK late in the period. Some snowfall is likely across the higher ground of the North and East through the early stages of next week with adrier interlude for many before the main depressions spins gales and rain NE followed by squally showers to all areas by next weekend with wintry showers possible over the hills of the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts main theme today continues to show Low pressure across or near the UK over the next 5 days with rain and showers and some snow on Northern hills on the Northern side of troughs slow moving over the far North.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning maintains very wet and volatile conditions across the UK throughout it's 10 day span with plenty more deep Low pressure running into the UK from off the Atlantic with rain and showers aplenty and rather colder conditions than of late delivering some snow at times to the hills of the North and NE. Then late in the run Low pressure centred more to the NW brings SW gales for many with heavy rain at times for all, becoming heaviest again towards the West and NW by the end of the period with milder conditions re-emerging across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too offers the same ingredients as the rest of the output for the next 7 days with rai at times and rather chillier conditions than of late with some snow on the hills of the North and NE and gales at times in the South. Then later next week deep Low pressure to the North and NW return SW or West gales to all with rain or showers at times in bear average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows very low pressure across the UK over the next 10 days or so. Low pressure will lie over the UK in the coming 4-5 days before becoming more to the NW and North later in the period. This will result in chillier conditions early in the period as winds are cyclonic and variable though still strong in places and in the chillier air some snow may fall on higher ground of the North and East. Then later in the run as the Low centre's lie further to the NW SW gales and heavy rain will sweep East across all areas followed by spells of sunshine and showers heavy at times with near average temperatures restricting any snowfall to the hills of the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart remains poor with unsettled conditions across the UK maintained in a largely Westerly flow. The Jet Stream remains likely to be positioned a long way South so conditions are unlikely to be particularly mild but equally not that cold either with the main message being further wind and rain across the UK especially to the West and NW and any snowfall rstricted to the high ground of the North only.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output longer term today shows no significant let up in the basically wet and windy conditions though a growing trend for High pressure to build to the South of the UK again is hinted at as we approach mid January.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  at 96.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.4 pts to UKMO at 87.3 pts then GFS at 85.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 62.8 pts over GFS's 59.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 46.6 pts to 44.3 pts. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   There remains little cheer from the models this morning as the Atlantic remains in total control of the weather over the UK through the next two weeks. There are of course day to day differences through the period and the main differences lie with the angle of attack that Low pressure takes at the UK through the period and the consequences thereof. For the next four or five days Low pressure areas take a course further South than of late with Southern England home to Low pressure at this time. This brings spells of rain or showers to all areas but in the North and NE some colder continental air could allow some wintry precipitation at times as it feeds West on the Northern flank of Low pressure from Northern Europe. On this morning's output this looks unlikely to be a major feature though with rainfall amounts remaining a major local problem with flooding in the NE and SW. Then a change of orientation of attack of Low pressure to a more NW'ly location drives renewed gales and heavy rain NE across all areas pushing away any colder air still in the NE and leading all areas into Westerly winds and heavy rain and showers at times in average temperatures. This theme then looks like continuing on for some time with a hint this morning that High pressure could begin to play a role in our weather towards two weeks from now. However, on this morning's output it's positioning looks unlikely to be favourable to support cold conditions for long if at all as it looks like that if it does develop it will lie to the SW or South with the South becoming dry and bright while the North continues to see some influence of Westerly winds and rain or showers. All this is a long way off though and caution of this evolution is of course the buzz word here. However, whatever does transpire it continues to look unlikely that any significant wintry weather away from Northern hills and mountains looks likely over the next few weeks at least given the theme and cross model evidence of this morning's output. 

Next Update on Sunday January 3rd 2016 at 09:00 approx 

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 1ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A ridge of High pressue over the UK this morning will decline ahead of Low pressure and troughs moving into the SW of England later today, tonight and tomorrow filling slowly but with cyclonic strong winds for a time in the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from 1700ft over Scotland and 4000ft over Southern England gradually rising from the SW later but remaining low over Scotland with some showery snowfall over the Grampians.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Continuing unsettled and very windy at times and becoming less mild with further heavy rain or showers at times with snow possible on Northern hills for a time next week at least.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream shows the flow remaining a dominant force in the weather across the UK over the coming couple of weeks. It becomes rather variable or to the South of the UK in the immediate future before strengthening markedly again in a West to East flow over Southern England and Northern France for much of next week. Towards the end of the period the flow becomes more undulating North and South across the UK as the theme by that time remains less clear.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows the next week to 10 days as being wet and very windy at times across the UK as Low pressure makes the UK it's home with various centres moving into the SW and forming a complex system across the UK. An intense storm is shown to cross the UK next Friday with storm force winds and heavy rain which then is the beginning of a slow change to drier and less volatile conditions as High pressure slowly builds up from the SW with dry and bright conditions especially across the South and East late in the period perhaps with some frost at night for a time but more likely milder in a weak SW flow with a little rain in the North and West as the High resides to the SE of the UK.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is broadly similar in theme to the operational with a stormy week to 10 days as deep Low pressure areas continue to run across the Atlantic into the UK before winds fall lighter and pressure rises across the UK for a time later in the period although fronts still bring occasional rain at the end of the period to many with temperatures never far from the seasonal average across the UK but within much lighter breezes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today continues to look very unsettled across the UK next week as Low pressure close to Southern England early in the week only slowly fills and ebbs away East to be absorbed by a new powerful Atlantic Low pressure South of Iceland owards the end of next week sweeping more heavy rain and strong winds NE across the UK late in the period. Some snowfall is likely across the higher ground of the North and East through the week gradually receding back to the NE late next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts main theme today indicates further Atlantic troughs and Low pressure moving directly into the UK from the Atlantic through the next 5 days with cyclonic and often strong winds across the UK with rain or showers at times and perhaps a little snow at times on the hills of the North and East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning maintains very wet and volatile conditions across the UK throughout it's 19 day span with no real letup showing even at the end of the run as the Atlantic remains in control with heavy rain and showers, prolonged at times plus strong winds the main features throughout with conditions just cold enough for a little snow at times on Northern hills especially in the showery spells.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too offers little reprieve from the recent rains across the UK with Low pressure areas streaming into the South of the UK from off the Atlantic gradually superceded by a resumption of strong SW winds for many with rain and gales at times for all later next week and any snow after affecting some high ground quite a way South early next week by the end of the period restricted more and more to the high ground of the far North and NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a continuation of unsettled and often wet weather with gales or severe gales and heavy rain across all areas of the UK in cyclonic winds allowing colder air in the North and East with some snowfall over the hlls. Then later next week and towards the end of the run milder air will sweep NE across all areas but with a resumption of very wet conditions at times especially across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart remains poor with unsettled conditions across the UK maintained in a largely Westerly flow. The Jet Stream remains likely to be positioned a long way South so conditions are unlikely to be particularly mild but equally not that cold either with the main message being further wind and rain across the UK especially to the West and NW and any snowfall rstricted to the high ground of the North only.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output longer term today shows no let up in the basically wet and sometimes stormy conditions under Low pressure across all of the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.2 pts to UKMO at 87.3 pts then GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 62.9 pts over GFS's 58.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 46.2 pts to 42.9 pts. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   At the risk of sounding like a broken record there seems little New Years cheer in the models if it's something drier and quieter that you seek across the UK over the next 10-14 days. The main theme remains for Low pressure to continue to pile into the UK from the West on quite Southerly latitudes over the next week with some colder air infiltrating into the East and North of the UK from Europe turning some of the rain to snow at times over the higher ground. In the South rain is more certin and gales or even severe gales are possible too with the heaviest rain likely to be in the NE and SW. Then as we move towards the end of next week it looks like a large storm syste will develop or move up to the NW of the UK with renewed SW gale or severe gales for many areas with rain sweeping NE too displacing much of the colder air tantalisingly close to the North and East of the UK earlier in the period. From that point on most output suggests largely unsettled weather continuing until the end of the two week period though there is some suggestion that High pressure may try to edge up from the SW or West later with less wind and rain but with winds still showing an Atlantic origin for the most part anything very cold and widespread looks unlikely with some rain still possible. To be honest that's as good as it gets in today's output which will give little relief to the areas already afflicted by flooding with a very real risk of other areas becoming affected too next week, especially in the SW. For those looking for snow there is better news than so far this Winter with the hills of the North and East in particular looking likely to see a little but in the grand scheme of things it really is a penny in the ocean of the overall wet and windy theme still ruling much of the Atlantic Ocean and NW Europe for a considerable time to come. 

Next Update on Saturday January 2nd 2016 at 09:00 approx 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

May I take this early opportunity to wish all Netweather folks a Happy New Year for 2016 and thanks for reading my reports here throughout the year. I know they have been missing for some time but I have maintained them on my website and now the worst of my pre Christmas workload is now over I should have more time to get to my PC to post them here again soon.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

2 hours ago, Woollymummy said:

Where is Gibby? I have not seen any updates from him for ages. 

Hi folks. I decided to take a break from forum posting my analysis as my business is very seasonal and requires a lot of my time at the back end of the year. I have always been reluctant to maintain posting at this time of year anyway  as the forums seem less friendly and sometimes antagonistic towards each other and a while ago towards me from a few members (not here I hasten to add). However, I will return as my time becomes more plentiful in the New Year but in the meantime you can still read my daily analysis on my website on :-

http://norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards]

Encouraging signals indeed from GFS and GEM. We do need to suppress the Jet stream from riding over the top of any build of high pressure as the ultimate result will be for the High to be suppressed back to the SE and bring back the Atlantic. Will ECM pick up on the GFS theme, well not without some support from it's mean charts this morning but who knows..keeps us interested.

[Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards]

To be quite frank if anything there is a strengthening threat between all of the output of a very mild SE/NW split in the weather coming up again from next week and because of the nature of these setups they can be an absolute stubborn animal to break out of once established which on past proof has given the UK weeks and weeks of mild weather in Winters past without a hint of cold. I am not of course saying that this is going to happen this time round but it does look like the chance of anything wintry is put back to well into December at least unless the models start to diverge from their current output soon. Sorry folks just saying it as I see it.