Gibby

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY MAR 5TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An occluded and weakening front across Central Britain this morning will pull away SE through the day clearing the east coast tonight and leaving a rather cold Northerly air stream across the UK for the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain around about the 2000ft mark for much of the weekend but maybe a little lower than this under the occluded frontal zone at first. Snowfall amounts will be small or negligible for most through this weekend with any snow light and fleeting over higher ground exposed to the north once today's occluded front has gone. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy at first with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Then becoming less cold but windy with rain at times especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to continue to blow SE or South across the UK and Western Europe in association with Low pressure moving East then SE to the North or east of the UK in the next 3-4 days. Thereafter the Thereafter the flow backs West to east across the UK late next week at least for a time before becoming less clear cut in positioning and strength towards the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the same pattern as has been shown for days now with the cold and changeable conditions giving way eventually to milder West or even very mild SW winds for a time by next weekend with rain at times towards the North. In week 2 the High pressure area to the South builds North through the UK with fine and settled weather for all. However, it looks like temperatures would fall back again with frosts at night before changeable Westerly winds return at the end of the run. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a variation on the same theme as the Operational today with chilly North winds backing to a milder West or SW flow by next weekend with the second week seeing High pressure build across the UK from the South or SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards Low pressure close to northern Scotland or to the NE with cyclonic winds across the UK from the West or NW the most likely option with rain or showers at times. Up to 20% of members support a more High pressure based pattern centred near to the SW of the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning has a much flatter look about it today meaning cold weather will depart to the East by midweek with a milder Westerly flow with rain at times especially across the north and West of the UK taking hold through the second half of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show good support for it's operational partner with fronts orientating more West to East across the UK towards midweek with rain at times and less cold air filtering in from the West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning takes a different approach and instead of allowing milder westerlies midweek shows a Low pressure taking a more SE route down across the UK with more rather cold conditions with rain and hill sleet clearing as High pressure builds behind it across the South. This then extends across all areas later with dry benign days but frosty nights where skies stay clear. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM takes the milder route with rain spreading from the West midweek replacing the rather cold conditions until then. rain will be most prevalent towards the North and West by next weekend with milder air by then for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today returns to it's milder roots this morning following last night's changes. Therefore although mild weather is shown to take until Thursday/Friday next week to take a strong foothold once it does temperatures could exceed average levels in the South with rain from fronts more restricted towards the North and West as High pressure builds to the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN Not released at time of publishing this morning's report. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models appear to be continuing to give good cross model support for a change to milder Westerly winds arriving across the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.7 pts to UKMO at 88.2 pts and GFS at 86.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.3 pts to 61.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 49.5 pts to 47.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Things may look very different synoptically by this time next week if this morning's output is anything to go by. The main culprit of the change to milder air next week is the re-orientation of the Jet Stream which has recently been pulled South over or to the West of the UK with Britain being on the cold side of this. By the middle of next week the jet flow backs West to East over the UK or even further North with the potential for some very mild weather to threaten the South at least on a week's time. In the meantime we still have 3-4 days of rather cold and rather changeable weather to come with a little rain or even snow at times over the hills before a band of wind and rain midweek opens the door to the Atlantic. thereafter there looks to be rain at times in strong west winds for the North, but less so for the South before all areas look like becoming dry and fine at some point through the second week as there appears sound support for pressure to rise strongly then at least for a time. This may mean of course temperatures falling back somewhat again with the re-introduction of a frost risk at night but any daytime sunshine should support temperatures still approaching normal values of not above dependent on where the resting place of any High pressure may end. Towards the very end of the period the usual variability of output is shown with the favoured Atlantic westerly option hinted at returning again by the GFS model in particular. So as I said yesterday a typical early Spring mix of weather across the UK in the next few weeks but on the face of it it doesn't look that bad. Next Update Sunday March 6th 2016 from 09:00

I think we've been quite lucky in the fact that with little wind evaporative cooling has led to snow down to lower levels than might have otherwise occurred. If and when the second band to the North gets here it is more likely to be of rain as a steadily increasing Northerly breeze already across much of Wales mixes the air out later in the night.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAR 4TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A Low pressure area across England and Wales this morning will pull away SE over the next 24 hours with an associated occluded front across Northern England continuing to pivot and move back SE tonight and tomorrow as a chilly Northerly flow establishes across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be lowest across Northern England and North Wales this morning at around 500-1000ft while elsewhere and later in the above areas too the level rises to nearer 2000ft. Snowfall to low levels across Northern England early today will turn to rain and sleet below 1000ft through the day as it trends back SE'wards. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy at first with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Then becoming less cold but windy with rain at times especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to continue to blow SE or South across the UK and Western Europe in association with Low pressure over or to the East of the UK for the next 3-4 days. Thereafter the pattern becomes more variable with the general theme of changing the orientation of the flow West to East still indicated but somewhat less well defined than was shown yesterday. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows another 4 or so days of rather cold conditions as our airflow remains sourced from Northerly latitudes bringing occasional outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow. Then by midweek a weakening ridge crosses East over the UK with fine and bright conditions for a time. Westerly winds follow strengthening markedly in the North with fronts crossing the UK West to East delivering rain at times. Then through the second week more settled weather looks likely to extend slowly North across the UK as High pressure builds up over the UK with fine and settled weather with quite Springlike daytime conditions likely with patchy overnight frosts returning. the run then ends with somewhat more changeable and perhaps chillier conditions returning to some parts as pressure falls somewhat especially in the North. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run follows a similar course to the operational run with the first week cold and changeable with some rain, sleet or snow at times before a spell of milder Westerly winds towards the end of next week leads into the second week becoming fine and settled and by day quite Springlike in bright sunshine and light winds as strong High pressure area migrates North and settles across the UK. By night clear skies and frost is likely while towards the end of the run it looks like becoming slightly more changeable again. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards High pressure lying close to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with light winds in the South and a lot of fine weather while the North sees some rain at times in an Atlantic flow. Just a 10% cluster show a more definitive Westerly flow with rain at times for all. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning extends the cold and changeable theme for an extra day today as it shows another trough disrupting across the UK towards the middle of next week before a Westerly flow overpowers the Northerly winds across the UK and NW Europe later in the week with less cold and changeable Westerly winds with rain at times type of weather then likely for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex and rather cold pattern of weather across the UK over the next 5 days as troughs of Low pressure continue to move into the UK from the NW into cold air and delivering occasional rain and hill wintriness. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning is also showing a delay in milder Atlantic Westerly winds too arriving next week as the cold Northerly feed is reluctant to clear the east coast midweek. So further rather cold and changeable weather up to around Wednesday of next week. Thereafter the pattern remains quite blocked as High pressure builds over the UK and eventually Scandinavia too bringing fine and bright conditions with frosts at night with the chance of things turning rather cold again later as winds threaten to turn Easterly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the end to the current pattern by the middle of next week as the SE moving weather systems become cut off by a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK and followed by milder Westerly winds with rain at times for many from midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also hinders the extent to which milder Atlantic winds extend across the UK next week with the main push delayed until Thursday when all areas become less cold with rain at times following the rather cold and changeable theme in a Northerly flow up to that point. then towards next weekend and beyond with High pressure building close to SE Britain there is strong potential for things to turn quite Springlike across the South at least as balmy South or SE winds sourced from Southern Europe waft up across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure close to SE Britain or thereabouts with a resultant mild and balmy Southerly drift across the UK with temperatures likely to exceed average levels for some as a result and certainly much milder than recently for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models appear to be continuing to give good cross model support for a change to milder Westerly winds arriving across the UK delayed just a little from what was shown yesterday. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 86.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.7 pts to 62.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 50.1 pts to 47.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The model outputs this morning continue the main theme of the last few days in that the current chilly and rather changeable spell is still expected to give way to rather milder Westerly winds later next week. There is some signs of a slight delay in this happening particularly from UKMO which shows another advancing trough midweek disrupting across the UK as it stagnates against the cold block. However, it appears just a short delay as the end of the week looks milder for all with some rain at times and temperatures back up to average levels at least. It's then all about how long this pattern lasts as there is quite a lot of evidence of High pressure building up from the South with time and settling the weather down especially in the South during the second week. Some output wholeheartedly brings High pressure right across the UK with fine and sunny early Spring conditions by day with frosty nights while some also build High pressure back to the NE and threaten a return to rather chilly weather later. ECM on the other hand has High pressure positioned such at the end of it's run that would bring early Spring warmth up across the UK from a source near the Med and this theme has been indicated within it's 10 day Mean Chart for the last few days with this morning's chart being no exception to that theme. So in a nutshell the rather cold and changeable theme with some rain and hill snow continues until the middle of next week before a change to a less cold period with rain at times especially in the North leads into the chance of fine and settled conditions developing under High pressure in the second week with bright sunny days and the risk of overnight frosts returning.. All in all not a bad set of output this morning which offers many of the variables that can normally be on offer in march with nothing at all alarmist on view this morning. Next Update Saturday March 5th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAR 2ND 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge will move East across the UK displacing the cold Northerly flow. Following that will be an occluded trough associated with a SE moving depression across England and Wales tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will maintain the 1500ft to 2000ft level for the most part but it could rise to 3000ft for a time across the SW later today and tonight. Snowfall will be restrictive to start with but will engage all Northern England high ground tonight along with North Wales as an occluded trough moves in. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy at first with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Then becoming less cold but windy with rain at times especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to continue to blow SE or South across the UK and Western Europe in association with Low pressure over or to the East of the UK for the next 3-4 days. Next week the flow re-orientates to a West to East motion across the UK and maintains this general theme for the rest of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuation of the cold theme over the next 5-6 days as winds remain focused from a Northerly point and source delivering spells of rain and hill snow at times, mostly but not exclusively in the form of showers with some frost at night. The run then shows a change following a ridge crossing East over the UK midweek next week with Westerly winds between High pressure to the South and deep Low pressure to the North becoming strong and established and bringing milder and changeable conditions with rain at times heaviest across the North and West for most of the remainder of the period with perhaps a brief chilly NW flow again at the very end of the run. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run stays on track with it's Operational partner until the second week when the change to milder and unsettled Westerly winds is shown to be temporary with High pressure building North across the UK and Scandinavia with cold and frosty conditions but with plenty of warming early Spring sunshine and mostly dry weather likely from then until the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today continue to be undecided in the direction the UK weather takes in two weeks time. This morning's offering shows a range of options perhaps biased more towards High pressure to the West and SW more likely than anything else with winds from a west or NW direction maintaining changeable conditions for most of the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows rather cold conditions for another 3-4 days under a slack northerly flow with some wintry showers and the odd longer spells of rain and hill snow affects the West for a time Sunday/Monday. A ridge topples across the UK with temperatures edging up to average by midweek with rain at times in places especially in the North thereafter as winds back to a milder Westerly source. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mostly follow the raw data well with all action coming down from the NW over the period in the shape of chilly winds, troughs, scattered perhaps wintry showers and a longer period of rain/sleet on Sunday and Monday across the West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning is more bullish about delaying any quick return to milder weather this morning as it continues to show Low pressure cells drifting SE across the UK and nearby Europe well into the middle of next week and beyond delivering further spells of wintry showers and some longer periods of potentially wintry precipitation over the hills before slowly developing High pressure close to the South of the UK and Europe late next week keeps any mild SW winds restricted towards the NW while the South becomes fine and bright with perhaps night frosts under the influence of the High pressure close by. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the end to the current pattern by the middle of next week as the SE moving weather systems become cut off by a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK and followed by milder Westerly winds with rain at times for many from midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM too maintains a theme of an end to the rather cold conditions across the UK currently by the middle of next week or soon afterwards as the SE moving weather systems down across the UK become cut off by a Jet Stream realigning it's angle of movement to more of a West to East flow across the UK from the middle of next week. In weather terms there should be another 4-5 days of cold weather with some wintry precipitation from showers or longer spells of precipitation at times before a change to milder Westerly winds moves across Britain from the middle of next week with the potential for some quite mild air reaching Southern Britain at times by the second weekend with most of the rain and showers affecting the North by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart continues it's rock steady support for milder and well established SW winds and rain at times for all across the UK at that time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models appear to be firming up on a change to milder Westerly winds arriving across the UK from the middle of next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.7 pts to UKMO at 88.5 pts and GFS at 86.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.2 pts to 63.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 50.6 pts to 47.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS While there is still rather a lot of rather cold and unstable air around across the UK over the next 4-5 days the models seem to be firming up now on the demise of the current pattern from around the middle of next week. Until then the cold northerly sourced airflow will continue to bring a messy mix of rain and snowfall across the UK with elevation meaning everything to what falls from the sky as the air is not quite cold enough to allow snowfall all the way down to sea level. Most of the precipitation will fall in the form of showers but some longer spells of rain, sleet or snow could fall, notably tonight across Central Britain and Western areas over late Sunday into Monday. Thereafter a ridge of High pressure looks like crossing East or SE across the UK midweek with a fine and frosty day or two before milder and strengthening Atlantic Westerly winds develop as High pressure to the South of the UK and Low pressure to the North becomes the popular theme shown between models this morning. The weather then looks like staying changeable with rain at times until the end of the period and ECM in particular shows the chance of some mild Springlike air moving across the South later backed up by it's 10 Day mean Chart this morning while conversely some Northern areas could see incursions of colder air at times still from the North as troughs pass by. In among all this we have the GFS Control Run which brings High pressure across the UK in Week 2 with fine Springlike days and frosty nights. Whatever happens there is little sign of any marked cold weather shown in the output this morning with any results of the Stratospheric warming event currently not realised in any output this morning that I have seen with very typical varied chart offerings very indicative of what is normal for March on offer this morning. Next Update Friday March 4th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAR 2ND 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression will move SE across the North sea today with a complex trough structure attached to it moving SE across the UK today in a cold and very strong NW flow gradually weakening tonight and tomorrow as a new trough approaches the west from off the Atlantic by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will in general be around 2000ft but will change downwards towards sea level as squally wintry showers pass giving snowfall right down to sea level in the heaviest showers and settling snow possible above 1000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Perhaps drier later. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is blowing strongly SE or South across the UK and France and it remains moving South in this position for the coming three or four days weakening and buckling over the weekend as pressure builds in from the West. The flow then becomes much lighter and variable next week with the main emphasis supporting the flow wanting to remain South of the UK later in response to a pressure rise over Europe. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows cold weather for the UK in the next 7 days as depressions run SE across the UK in the next 48 hours and then more slowly away east over the weekend and start to next week maintaining a cold and Northerly source to the winds across the UK with sunshine and scattered wintry showers and eventual frosts at night. Another disturbance running South over western Britain at some point over the weekend threatens more general rain or snow for a time in the West before the ridge to the West and NW topples across the UK with a fine day or two before a change to SW winds and milder air for a time next week with rain at times especially in the North. Towards the end of the run pressure is High over Europe and Low pressure moves into the UK engaging with cold air across parts of Europe and from the NW meaning a return to complex and cold Low pressure across the UK with rain or snow in places in two weeks time. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme is almost identical to the Operational Run in Week 1 detailing a delay in the ridge moving in from the West now until towards the middle of next week so cold and unsettled weather is expected through this period. Then as the ridge finally moves across midweek it declines rapidly with a milder West or SW flow becoming established with rain or showers across the UK at times in the second week though this run demonstrates rather less cold conditions possible later when compared to the Operational Run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today again today offer no real clues in the weather likely across the UK in two weeks time with a very mixed pattern likely across the UK shown this morning which could bring us mild or cold and wet or dry so these offer very few clues on what is likely. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to project a cold period of weather to come. As the Friday Low pressure slips away to the SE at the weekend it's slow clearance East makes for a cold North wind across the UK at the weekend with wintry showers and night frosts. Further disturbances in the flow could threaten further more prolonged rain r snow in places for a time before the ridge which is all the time to the West finally makes it's move into the UK by Tuesday with fine and frosty weather looking more likely with any showers then restricted to the far SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a close proximity to the raw data run this morning with cold and complex Low pressure type synoptics offering the heady mix of rain and snow in places with a cold northerly flow developing at the weekend as the Low pressure areas drift away towards the SE and East. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows a slight extension to the cold synoptic pattern too this morning as low pressure moving SE over the UK on Friday is slow to clear East leaving a cold Northerly flow in it's wake with further disturbances running South in the flow enhancing wintry showers at times for some areas.as they pass. It's not until towards the middle of next week the ridge to the West collapses across the UK bringing drier and eventually much less cold weather later next week with WSW winds and rain at times especially in the North and West establishing itself by the second weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows no true break in the cold or rather cold conditions at all in it's run today with the complex Northerly flow at the weekend and start to next week bringing plenty of wintry showers especially in coastal areas and a few longer spells of rain or snow too. A ridge of sorts does make inroads into the UK towards the middle of next week but troughs to the West running into it and disrupting in situ offer up more cold rain and hill snow in places. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning follows the general theme too of cold and unsettled conditions under Low pressure to the East of the UK through the next 5-7 days with High pressure trying desperately to displace Low pressure as it moves slowly in from the West finally doing so by the middle of next week with the cold Northerly feed displaced by strong and milder Westerly winds and unsettled conditions later next week as the more traditional UK pattern of High to the South and Low pressure to the North establishes. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart continues it's rock steady support for milder and well established SW winds and rain at times for all across the UK at that time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models shows cross model support for the next week before differences shown on the timing and extent of a change to milder Atlantic winds is indicated between the models and ensembles thereafter. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.8 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 87.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.0 pts to 63.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 50.6 pts to 48.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS I think the cold period we have just entered into is shown to persist a little longer from within this morning's model outputs. The low pressure area moving SE over the UK on Friday with it's cocktail of rain and snow followed by wintry showers in a Northerly flow is shown to release it's grip more slowly than previously drawing down further disturbances across the UK over the weekend and start to next week from the North or NW. This then is replaced by a weakening ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK towards the middle of next week with fine and frosty weather for a day or so before there seems reasonable support between the operational's that milder Atlantic westerly winds and rain at times takes over thereafter. With High pressure then shown by some output shown to lie to the South from ECM and GEM in particular there seems little chance of a return to colder synoptics at first sight but deep within the models are less clear cut chances of milder air as GFS in particular shows in it's output and bearing in mind that this model is performing better than ECM at the 10 day point in it's verification stats leads me to believe that the chance of milder air later next week is very real but by no means not a done deal and more runs are needed before we can be definitive that's the way the dice is going to fall later next week. meanwhile we can settle into a week of chilly and rather typical March weather with some bright early Spring sunshine mixed with cold winds, frost at night, some bands of rain and snow plus wintry showers scattered about across the UK on most days in the next week. Next Update Thursday March 3rd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAR 1ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East and SE across the UK today followed by an increasingly cold and unstable Westerly flow with Wintry showery troughs moving SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK near 6000ft this morning will fall steadily across the UK later today and tonight to be nearer to 2000ft by tomorrow with plenty of snow showers over all high ground tomorrow settling in places above 1500ft asl. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Perhaps drier later. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is predicted to blow SE across the Atlantic and France over the coming week with a deep trough across the UK by next weekend with this pattern only slowly being replaced by a more undulating pattern on a more West to East axis and further North than currently later next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure to the North and East of the UK over the coming week with winds from between West and North for much of the time with spells of rain, sleet and snow plus some drier and brighter intervals. From about a week's time the axis of flow of depressions changes to a more to West to East axis close to the North of the UK so still plenty of rain or showers. It still looks rather cold at times but wintriness will become more confined to Northern hills, this theme enhancing further towards the end of the run as High pressure edges closer to the South and SE of the UK at times with milder air moving NE across the UK with rain in places more especially focused towards the North and West. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme follows a similar course as the Operational through the first week with a lot of chilly West or NW winds and wintry showers with snow on fairly modest hills nationwide at times. Then in Week 2 the pattern differs showing High pressure setting up shop over Europe with Low pressure over the Atlantic. In theory this could bring milder South or SW winds with rain at times for all but with High pressure over Europe engaging cold air on it's Southern flank implications from this or adjustments North of the pattern could change the overall theme to a colder one for the UK especially in the East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today offer no real clues in the weather likely across the UK in two weeks time with an even split between High pressure or Low pressure based weather patterns a possibility for all parts of the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning remains a chilly outlook as Low pressure sinks SE across the UK towards the end of the week and then edges only slowly away East from the UK through the weekend with a cold showery Northerly flow in it's wake giving way only slowly early next week to a ridge of cold High pressure moving into the UK from the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a similar sequence of events as the raw data with complex Low pressure slipping SE across the UK over the next 3-4 days culminating in a cold and unstable Northerly flow over the weekend with wintry showers a risk for all. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows Low pressure areas slipping SE across the UK over the next 33-4 days with a complex mix of rain and showers falling as sleet or snow over the hills. Then unlike some of the other output release from this pattern is slow and arduous with cold Low pressure remaining close to the East or indeed over the UK before a slow push of High pressure down from the NW settles things down across the UK later next week last to reach the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM is slow to clear the trough out of the UK too next week with it showing approaching midweek next week before the ridge of High pressure to the West and NW edges in sufficiently to settle the weather down across Britain to any large degree. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning follows the general theme too of cold and unsettled conditions under Low pressure to the East of the UK through the next 5-7 days with High pressure trying desperately to displace Low pressure as it moves slowly in from the West. So a messy mix of showers, wintry on hills and the increasing likelihood of frost at night as winds fall lighter the main theme as we move into next week with the run ending with High pressure over much of the UK with frosty nights alternating with dry, crisp and OK sort of days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a gradual shift East of the trough previously shown across the UK suggesting a gradual trend towards High pressure becoming more influential from the West at that time with temperatures still rather chilly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models is well documented for this week as rather cold and unsettled conditions are projected by all models. The theme beyond that continues to suggest some influence of High pressure moving into the UK from the Atlantic next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.9 pts to UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 87.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.6 pts to 64.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has taken over the lead from ECM again with a score of 50.6 pts to 49.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Not much change in the theme from the models this morning from that shown yesterday with the main story being the late Winter synoptic pattern promoting what could be the first snowfall of Winter over the coming days for some parts of the South of the UK. The amounts of snowfall should not be alarmist though and could well be restricted to the night hours and over the hills for many. The pattern bringing this messy wintry mix of weather is Low pressure moving SE across the UK in two bands between now and the weekend each one bringing progressively colder air into the mix across the UK. Much of the precipitation will be showery in nature although Friday looks a day when something more interesting may develop across the UK as the second Low moves South over the UK with a wraparound of cold North or NE winds develop in it's wake. Then as we move into next week the main story evolves around how quickly and how much High pressure to the West of the UK displaces the cold Northerly flow over the UK at that time as it edges further East. It does look a slow and arduous process and it maybe towards the second half of next week before the general theme of dry and settled conditions look likely to replace the showery feed of early in the week. Frosts at night remain likely and daytime temperatures remain close to or a little below normal by then. I am using the ECM theory in these projections as I feel this is the most likely outcome of what's on offer this morning endorsed by the ECM Mean Chart of late which has remained fairly constant in this general theme in recent days. Alternatively GFS offers something a little less settled as High pressure slips further South with a milder Westerly flow across the UK in Week 2 but the model remains very fluid in it's projections longer term as does it's Clusters. So in a nutshell the 1st of March does not indicate too much in the way of early Spring conditions across the UK in the models today although what's on offer is a typical mix of conditions for March across the UK in the next few weeks. Next Update Wednesday March 2nd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY FEB 29TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across Southern Britain will decline away SE today followed by troughs of Low pressure in a strengthening West or SW wind through the day and overnight. Following a cold front East over the UK tomorrow a cold and showery Westerly flow will develop. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will lift from the West through the day with values exceeding 5000-6000ft tonight before falling again towards 2000ft later tomorrow with early snow over Northern hills and mountains turning to rain but returning to many hills again tomorrow in the form of showers. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is predicted to blow SE across the Atlantic and France over the coming week with a deep trough across the UK by next weekend with this pattern only slowly reducing to more of a West to East pattern though still blowing quite a way further South than average through the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows mostly rather cold and unsettled conditions likely across the UK this week with winds from a West or NW direction driving wintry showers and some longer periods of rain or sleet with hill snow East and SE across all areas through the period. Then as we move through the second week changes are slow with the weather remaining rather cold and changeable for many with rain at times with further snowfall and strong winds affecting the North in particular at times. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme follows a similar course as the Operational through the first week with a lot of chilly West or NW winds and wintry showers with snow on fairly modest hills nationwide at times. The coldness if anything enhances next weekend as Low pressure just to the East swings winds Northerly. Then through the second week the run diverges a little from the Operational with a milder but still damp period under West or SW winds before pressure builds to the East and encourages trough disruption across the UK at the end of the run with rain at times along with chillier conditions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show strong support for High pressure to lie across the UK in 14 days time as the clusters suggest a 75%/25% split towards this scenario. The remaining 25% show Low pressure from the West bringing rain at times in a milder SW'ly flow more likely. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning is a very chilly one for March as Low pressure areas moving SE over or to the NE of the UK later this week culminate in a complex Low pressure area over and just to the East of the UK at the weekend with Northerly winds and wintry showers the order of the days with frosts at night in shelter http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the complexities of the SE moving fronts and depressions towards the UK later in the week and how it engages with cold air from Northern latitude sources later in the week too with a mixture of rain, wind and wintry showers in quite cold conditions relative to March. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows a similar pattern to the rest of the output with a chilly week to come with rain and showers turning wintry across hills over all parts of the UK. Once to the East of the UK the Northerly down across the UK persists for several days next weekend before a ridge of High pressure ridging NE across the UK next week dries things up with sharp overnight frosts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the rather cold and unsettled theme too with cold winds from the NW and then North next weekend ensuring rain and showers at times throughout the period turning to snow at times on hills nationwide at times especially later as further Low pressure disrupts SE across the UK at the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows cold and unsettled and windy conditions for all of the UK over the next week with rain and snow at times across the UK, the snow mostly but not exclusively over the hills. Then after a cold and wintry weekend with snow showers in places the pattern flattens next week with High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North bringing milder Westerly winds across the UK with rain at times particularly to the North with longer drier spells across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a gradual shift East of the trough previously shown across the UK suggesting a gradual trend towards High pressure becoming more influential from the West at that time with temperatures still rather chilly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models is well documented for this week as rather cold and unsettled conditions are projected by all models. Thereafter, there is more variability mostly surrounding how much High pressure from the West or SW interacts with the previously chilly and unsettled conditions across the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.7 pts to 64.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM and GFS tie at 50.3 pts each. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models share a similar theme in the next week with all output suggesting a cold and rather windy period of weather to come across the UK throughout this week and next weekend as Low pressure areas move SE down over the UK later dragging rather cold uppers down across the UK from the NW and with much instability aloft moving across relatively warm seas a lot of showers and some more persistent spells of rain for all seem likely on most days. It also looks that winds could veer Northerly next weekend enhancing the cold further for a time with snow showers especially near coasts, lighter winds with frosts at night. Then as we move further out into the less guaranteed period of 7-14 days the focus shifts on how much High pressure lying across the Atlantic one week from now shifts towards the UK settling things down with frosty nights but dry, bright and fine days. The GFS Clusters this morning strongly support this theme whereas the ECM operational at Day 10 sinks any High pressure South of the UK supporting a milder Westerly airflow developing next week with rain at times especially for the North and West. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to grow the theme of High pressure ridging NE through the UK at day 10 suggesting that when taken as a whole and given the GFS theme too most output supports fine and pleasant weather possible from the middle of next week but with frosts at night. Next Update Tuesday March 1st 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY FEB 28TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong ridge of High pressure lying across Scotland will slip South across England and Wales over the next 24 hours or so with a strengthening Westerly flow developing across the North as a trough of Low pressure approaches the West and NW later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK remains around 2000-3000ft. The level will begin to creep upwards later tomorrow in the extreme West. There will be very little wintry precipitation anywhere across the UK today. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main theme this morning shows a SE moving flow from Newfoundland to Southern Europe on this morning's forecast before it becomes a rather more variable feature through Week 2 especially over Europe. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the next week becoming unsettled and windy with rain and showers at times as a strong Westerly flow begins to take hold across the UK from tomorrow. This flow veers NW or North at times with colder air sweeping South at times behind several milder interludes with rain as Low pressure plummets SE over Europe. The South then shows a more coherent drier and possibly less chilly spell for a time at the start of the second week as High pressure edges up closer to the South before this recedes West and then North swinging winds back through North to a more Easterly flow with cold and frosty weather perhaps with a few wintry showers near eastern coasts ends the period. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme is very similar in theme through Week 1 this morning but following a cold and wintry Northerly flow sees High pressure move across the UK from the West in Week 2 maintaining it then across the UK for the final week with dry, fine and sunny weather by day and very frosty conditions by night in light winds and pleasant enough feeling days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show High pressure being the controlling feature in two weeks time with the centre likely to lie close to the West with a chilly North flow likely but a lot of dry weather too. Those that don't support this theme show more influence from Low pressure to the North and NE while a few show High pressure to the NE with a SE flow and Low pressure over the Atlantic so no overwhelming evidence of one pattern between one pattern or another yet. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows milder, unsettled and windy conditions developing this week with several spells of wet and windy weather sweeping East and SE across the UK on Tuesday and again on Thursday with cold and showery NW winds in between with wintry showers on hills especially over the North and West later in the week as complex Low pressure by then lies over the UK by next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a complex but generally unsettled and windy period of weather developing this week with rain at times followed by cold NW winds with wintry showers on occasion later in the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows a rather cold and unsettled spell coming up with winds from a chilly NW direction for a large proportion of the time over the next 10 days.. In between will be short milder and wet weather with some heavy rain in places with all the above giving way to drier and cold conditions towards the end of the period as a strong ridge of High pressure builds NE across the UK at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today too shows an unsettled and rather cold week to come with Low pressure areas slipping SE across the UK or the North Sea over the next week with rain and showers turning wintry at times over the hills with something a little drier and brighter though still chilly conditions developing right at the end of the period as a ridge builds NE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows cold and unsettled and windy conditions for all of the UK over the next 10 days with Low pressure systems taking a SE route either down the North Sea or across the UK through the period, each bringing a spell of rain and strong winds followed by a chilly or cold NW flow with wintry showers with snow on high ground and some frosts at night. The pattern shows a look of a rinse and repeat pattern at day 10 as Low pressure appears poised to move SE again from the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a gradual shift East of the trough previously shown across the UK suggesting a gradual trend towards High pressure becoming more influential from the West at that time with temperatures still rather chilly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme shows rather cold and unsettled weather for the UK with winds generally between West and North throughout though some growing evdence towards more settled conditions is shown by some later. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.5 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 87.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.0 pts to 64.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 52.1 pts to GFS's 50.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS This weeks weather is going to be characterized by a lot of rather cold and windy weather as Low pressure areas stream down from the NW over the North Sea and later across the UK with bands of rain followed by showers likely for all areas through the week. With winds dragged down from Northern latitudes in the showery air some snowfall is likely over the hills especially over the North and the chill will often be accentuated by the strength of the breeze at times too with some frosts at night. Then looking further ahead there appears to be a chance that High pressure will with time ridge across the UK from the SW settling things down somewhat with rather chilly bright or even sunny days but with more widespread sharp night time frosts. However, this pattern looks far from a given as there is also support for a continuation of a similar theme as this week with further rain and wintry showers at times in a theme of weather coming down from the NW across the UK at times. Whichever, way the weather turns in week 2 there is little to suggest that the weather is going to feel particularly Springlike in the coming few weeks with temperatures remaining overall somewhat below average. Having said all that the pattern is a typical early Spring one with any winds from the NW or North threatening at least a view of wintriness falling from the sky commonplace in March with the coming two weeks offering this chance at times. With temperatures suppressed and the Winter we have had as being so mild I'm sure that at times it will feel as cold as anything we have experienced through the Winter months so for many looking for early Spring it may feel a long way away still at times in the next few weeks. Next Update Monday February 29th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY FEB 26TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A bank of Low pressure lies to the West of the UK with a frontal trough close to the SW. Through the next 24 hours this gets sucked away SE by Low pressure over Spain and the Med setting up a cold NE flow across the South for the weekend and a ridge of High pressure over Scotland and Northern Ireland moving South later on Sunday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK remains between 2000-3000ft with the highest levels across the far SW. Snowfall will be limited to high ground of Ireland and the high moors of the far SW today close to a frontal trough. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold with rain or showers at times with snow in places. Temperatures mostly below average with frosts at night. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main theme this morning illustrates a flow well South of the UK for much of the period blowing from Newfoundland all the way to the Med with the UK on the cold side of the flow until the second week when a shift to a cyclonic flow due to High pressure is shown to circumnavigate the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the pattern of the weekend much as has been shown for days with a ridge of High pressure slipping South and cutting off a cold but dry east flow. Next week then shows a spell of rain from the West before cold and unstable air moves South across the UK with rain and snow for many. Then as the Low migrates to the South of the UK and pressure rises to the North a cold easterly flow develops with wintry showers at times in the east and South with the return of sharp night frosts. The run then ends with High pressure from Greenland down across the UK with cold and benign conditions with severe night frosts in places. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme is quite similar though there is a slower link into colder weather next week as a flatter pattern across the UK keeps Westerly winds with rain and showers and snow on hills before the main drift into cold weather occurs in the second week and with unstable air aloft in association with Low pressure to the South some sleet or snow looks very possible for some especially the South by then with severe night frosts for all in an East wind. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show High pressure being in control of the UK weather with the likely positioning close to the West indicative of a chilly North flow across the UK. However, other members have different positioning of this but all showing that chilly weather with a lot of dry conditions is far more likely than shown in recent days. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a ridge moving South over the weekend cutting off the cold NE wind across the South and replaces it with a milder Westerly flow with a spell of rain before colder showery NW'lies spread down across all areas by the middle of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today follow the raw data well this morning with the Atlantic Westerlies making a comeback next week with a complex series of fronts moving ESE across the UK with rain followed by showers. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows a similar pattern as the UKMO model as far as it goes bringing the milder and wetter conditions down across the UK early next week followed by cold and blustery NW wind with wintry showers and further spells of rain and sleet as a second Low moves down across the UK and develops further as it moves away to the SE setting up a cold and wintry NE flow with wintry showers and frosts at night towards the end of the period as pressure builds down from the NW by day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows increasingly unsettled weather next week too as the ridge following the cold East winds moves away South with winds swinging West or NW with rain or showers and snow on hills likely at times as we move deeper into next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning continues to paint a cold start to March as this weekends cold and the early next week milder interlude are just precursors to a more pronounced unsettled and cold period with rain, sleet or snow at times especially later next week as winds swing more towards the East or NE the South in particular could feel bitter with wintry showers feeding across from Eastern coasts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has maintained the trough down across the UK in 10 days time and with the Jet stream miles away to the South. As a result the weather would likely be unsettled and cold with wintry weather over the hills at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme continues to strengthen towards cold conditions as we move into March with rain, sleet or snow possible for many areas at some point or another. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.6 pts to UKMO at 89.5 pts and GFS at 87.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.0 pts to 65.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 54.0 pts to GFS's 50.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS It is particularly ironic that the best cross model agreement for a period of cold weather from some mouth watering synoptics are delivered as we move out of Winter and into early Spring but that is what we have this morning. Bar a milder interlude lasting no more than a day or so early next week when a period of rain and strong winds moves through the vast majority of the next two weeks look cold with some interest for snow fans at times too. While the word 'cold' is used in a relative sense given that it is March next week the fact that the Winter has been so mild it will no doubt feel very cold at times and with a lot of unstable air likely to lie across the UK over the period there will possibly some of the most wintry scenes delivered for parts of the UK over this period especially over the hills and overnight. The South in particular look likely to see a cold East wind rather more coherently than the one we have this weekend by the second week with some wintry flurries blowing in from the East at times. All of this becomes possible due to the positioning of High pressure and the Jet Stream which powers SE across the Atlantic and down over Southern Europe displacing the Azores High further North across the Atlantic. Late in the period there is some suggestion that High pressure could ridge all the way back to Greenland and if this occurs the cold theme could be extended well into mid March. So for 'coldies' it's all good news from me today but for those thinking that a mild Winter would translate into a mild start to Spring you may well have to think again given the output shown at the moment. I'm not available for a report tomorrow and Sunday looks a little unlikely too at the moment but if not let's see whether Monday's report endorses a similar output as today or not and the prospect of cold remains as strong. Next Update Monday February 29th 2016 from 09:00

Sorry. Corrected.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY FEB 25TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The slack and weak Northerly flow across the UK will weaken further over the coming day or so as Low pressure to the West of the UK along with an occluded front edge in slowly towards SW England tomorrow with winds backing through SE towards the NE later tomorrow and certainly over the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK lies between 2000ft to 2500ft across the UK with the lowest figures towards Northern Scotland where some snow showers are occurring with more isolated wintry showers on hills of the Lake District and Wales as well at times. The freezing level may rise to 3000ft or so across the far SW later tomorrow. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream over the next few weeks is going to stay on the Southern side of the UK moving in a South or SE direction. Through next week it is shown to maintain it's SE axis of flow probably over or just to the South of the UK as Low pressure areas move SE across or to the NE of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows complex pressure situations over the next few weeks ranging from Low pressure to the South at the weekend with a cold Easterly flow across the UK and then transferring that next week with Low pressure to the North and NE with rain and wind at times. Then as we move through Week 2 a deep depression is shown to cross SE over the UK with further rain before cold and drier Easterly winds return under higher pressure behind it. Through the whole period temperatures will be suppressed making it feel rather cold with frost at night and some of the precipitation events will fall as sleet or snow over the hills not always just for the North. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today is quite duplicate of the Operational Run with just differences in specific positioning of High and Low pressure systems later in the period although the theme remains for conditions to stay generally on the cold side of average relative to March. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show no clear definitive theme to the 14 day point with a variety of options within the clusters ranging from High pressure close to Southern Britain to the other half of members supporting High pressure to the West and a chilly North flow down across the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an Easterly flow over the weekend in the South though it is shown to be a largely dry one. A cold and frosty ridge of High pressure then sinking South across the UK opens the door to the Atlantic with Low pressure crossing East close to the North by midweek allowing a spell of wet and windy weather then colder and more showery conditions by Wednesday for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a similar sequence of events as the Operational output with the main themes being the cold East flow in the South at the weekend giving way to a ridge of High pressure sinking South and bringing a spell of dry and frosty weather across the UK for a time early next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows changeable conditions over the next 10 days with much more support for rather cold conditions on most days rather than milder ones. Low pressure at first to the South of the UK with a cold easterly wind in the South transfers to cyclonic winds later next week as Low pressure slips SE down the North Sea and introduces another surge of cold Arctic air with wintry showers with the run ending in another SE moving Low pressure this time across or to the West of the UK with wind and rain for many to end the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows increasingly unsettled weather next week as the ridge following the cold East winds migrates away South early next week with westerly winds with rain or showers setting up for many areas of the UK later next week as Low pressure establishes close to the North of the UK http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows a very unsettled picture across the UK later in it's run this morning as Low pressure deepens and becomes entrenched across the UK by the end of next week. After this weekends well documented Easterly blast gives way to quiet conditions under a cold ridge early next week Westerly winds develop with rain and some wintry showers for a time in the North before wet and potentially very windy and cool conditions return to all areas by the second weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has sharpened the trough down across the UK in 10 days time and with the Jet stream miles away to the South it looks like the model has swung back towards rather cold and unsettled weather likely across the UK the most likely position we find ourselves in at 10 days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for generally unsettled weather with rain at times across the UK next week and with temperatures near or sometimes below average snow is possible on high ground in places. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.6 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 88.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.6 pts to 64.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 52.4 pts to GFS's 51.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The the theme of the model outputs this morning show good support for the next weeks conditions before some divergences become apparent between the models longer term. The main theme though is quite easy to get a handle on as the Low pressure currently to the West finally looks un-bothersome for the UK as it slides SE down towards the Med and sets up a chilly but mostly dry Easterly flow over the South for a few days over the weekend. Further North a dry weekend with frost under a ridge of High pressure is likely and this ridge slips South down over the South too early next week cutting off the NE feed but maintaining cold and frosty weather. At the same time Westerly winds and falling pressure will affect the North on Monday and by Tuesday all areas become wet and windy for a time with snow on hills transferring to brighter and more showery conditions midweek as Westerly winds come South to all. Then specific details become harder to predict but the main theme is for further Low pressure to move SE over or close to the UK through the end of next week and week 2 the positioning and axis of flow becoming determinate on conditions at the surface. However the most likely theme will be for unsettled weather to persist with rain and showers and strong winds at times for all and with colder air never far away if not over us some of the rain may fall as sleet or snow at times, mostly but not exclusively in the hills and in the North. There is no early signs of Spring warmth shown within the model outputs this morning. Next Update Friday February 26th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY FEB 24TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The slack North or NW flow established over the UK will back more Westerly tomorrow as Low pressure begins to transfer South to the West of the UK tomorrow pushing a trough slowly East towards the SW approaches. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK lies between 2000ft to 2500ft across the UK with the lowest figures towards Northern Scotland where some snow showers are occurring with wintry showers on hills of the Lake District and Cumbria as well at times. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is moving South to the West of the UK over the next few days and then turns East across Spain and the Mediteranean Sea. Thereafter the flow although ebbing and flowing maintains a direction of flow from the NW to the SE next week and probably beyond close to or across the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure developing and sliding SE to the SW of the UK and down over Biscay and Spain with a developing and cold east flow developing over the weekend in the South. A little rain or sleet on the SW for a time will give way to a largely dry weekend with sunshine in the North and a few wintry showers near Eastern coasts. Next week sees winds backing Westerly for a time and introducing more changeable conditions alternating between cloudy and damp conditions with cold and showery Northerly flows with some snow at times on hills and in the North and East. With High pressure increasingly lying to the West of the UK later in the period there looks no quick exit to the rather cold North or NW feed of air as we move into March. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today is different in the second week as it keeps High pressure further towards the South and SW of Britain rather than to the West meaning there will be more lengthy spells of less cold Westerly winds in the changeable theme of the second week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a mix of options with the 50% share going for High pressure lying close to the SW or South in two weeks time with dry and bright conditions in a Westerly breeze in average temperatures. Some Northerly charts are also shown by some members amounting to 40% so no clear guarantees of which option is likely to verify. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an Easterly flow developing across the South towards and over the weekend as Low pressure having moved down to Spain moves ENE through the Med. A ridge follows South across the UK cutting off the cold and rather cloudy flow with a day or so of frosty weather before a flat Westerly pattern looks like developing next week with less cold weather with rain at times especially in the North towards midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the story of the raw data well with low pressure moving past the SW with some rain or sleet and hill snow from an occlusion over Friday and early Saturday before it is swept away to the SE to leave a cold and raw NE flow with a lot of cloud and a few wintry showers near the SE for a time before the ridge over Scotland slips SE to other areas by the start of next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows good agreement with other outputs showing the passage of Low pressure to the South of the UK with a raw East wind at the weekend followed by a cold ridge of High pressure and the subsequent changeable and rather cold conditions following from the NW with rain and showers turning wintry at times especially in the North and East through the latter stages of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too takes the same track of events over the next week with changeable synoptics amounting to maintaining rather cold weather and although a lot of dry weather some wintry showers near coasts at times, a little rain or sleet in the SW on Friday and more generally next week as a chilly NW feed of air establishes. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning looks much like UKMO this morning at the Day 6 stage and this agreement supports less chance of any further cold air reaching the South after this weekends East winds and subsequent ridge passes. As High pressure is more pronounced South of the UK next week supporting a flatter Westerly flow from the Atlantic rain at times is likely in temperatures returning to average levels with any colder showery interludes restricted to the far north and NE http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has backed the flow more Westerly across the UK this morning than over recent outputs suggesting that more members are moving away from a cold North or NW feed towards a flatter Westerly pattern with a more even split of members culminating in a chart that can offer periods of both weather types rather cold or average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a rather cold couple of weeks though ECM and UKMO support a milder Westerly pattern later. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.6 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 87.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 70.7 pts to 64.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 53.9 pts to GFS's 51.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models still support a lot of rather cold synoptics over the next few weeks but there are cracks in the pattern within the models with a marked change in the Euro's longer term this morning which seem to support more chance of a flatter and less cold Westerly pattern establishing later next week recovering temperatures to closer to average levels for many away from the far North. The GFS Clusters too support the above change with High pressure showing much more consistency in positioning itself just to the South of the UK rather than ridging North through the Atlantic. Though not conclusive this is a big shift away from the potentially cold and in places wintry start to March all models seem to be leaning towards as recently as yesterday and while the previous model predictions still hold some support it is without doubt a new trend that has gained quite a bit of support within a short period of time so should be taken seriously. However, in the meantime we have a rather cold and messy picture over the next 3-4 days as Low pressure slips SE to the SW of the UK and threatens some patchy rain, sleet or snow into the SW for a time and then as a NE flow develops for a time the SE and East coasts could see some wintry showers for a time later in the weekend. Then a few days of cold and crisp weather with night frosts lead us into the pattern highlighted at the top of my report with the weather taking one of two ways. As said earlier there is still some support for a lot of cold NW or North winds at times with sleet or snow showers at times especially over the North and East with short wet spells in between as new Low pressure passes Se to the NE of the UK. Alternatively the UKMO, GFS Clusters and ECM route would support cloudier and less cold weather with rain at times in a Westerly flow with the North and West as usual in these situations capturing the most wind and rain. In expressing my own opinion and given the theme of the Winter past I would come down on the side that the Euro's may well have the right message this morning with a gradual return to average temperatures later next week with some rain at times especially in the North being the growing outcome likely with only short colder interludes towards the North and NE. Next Update Thursday February 25th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY FEB 23RD 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold but slack North to NW flow is blowing across the UK over the next 24-48hrs with showers near Northern, Eastern and later Western coasts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK lies between 2000-4000ft today North to South. Mostly dry weather for many with some wintry showers on the Scottish Mountains exposed to the North. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is looking like it will slip sharply South of the UK over the coming few days before it slowly migrates back north for a time and then settles on a NW to SE course either down across the UK or to the South and West by the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of rather cold weather across the UK over the next few weeks. The weather on the ground will be changeable and although a lot of dry and benign weather with frosts at night occurs Low pressure sliding down to the South of the UK later this week and over the weekend could bring the threat of rain, sleet and hill snow for a time before High pressure pushes fine and frosty weather South across the UK for a time followed by stronger West then NW winds and a rinse and repeat type return to cold NE'lies later with further chances of rain and hill sleet or snow with further night frosts in places well into March. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today shows the pattern above with the only caveat shown being the better recovery of temperatures in Week 2 as a more mobile based Westerly pattern establishes with rain and showers at times in average temperatures most prolific towards the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today paint a very unsure outcome in two weeks time with a 50% group showing High pressure having overall control of the UK weather at that point positioned either across or just to the South of the UK whereas the remaining 50% support more Atlantic based weather under Low pressure over or to the North of the UK with rain or showers at times wintry on Northern hills. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack winds for the UK over the next few days with rather cold but mostly dry weather away from windward coasts where wintry showers occur. Later in the week the slack pressure gives way to a raw SE, East and then NE wind as Low pressure slips SE to the SW of the UK with the threat of dull and raw weather in the South with some rain or sleet for a time before a ridge of High pressure slips South over the UK towards the start of next week with fine and frosty weather looking likely for many by that time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today shows a similar pattern to that supplied by the above raw data with a simplistic slack pattern gradually complicated by Low pressure sliding South to the SW of the UK late this week. It seems that any threat of precipitation from this is looking more and more likely to affect just far Southern and Western parts where it is conceivable a little sleet or snow could fall over the hills and moors there for a time but northern and eastern extent of this looks increasingly very limited. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows the same well worn pattern of rather cold weather with a keen east wind developing across the South later this week before winds back to the West and NW with rather cold and changeable weather developing next week with rain and showers for many and sleet or snow over the hills. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also takes Low pressure South to the SW of the UK later this week before it moves away East over Southern Europe backing winds from a chilly SE point through East and NE through the early days of next week with perhaps some wintry showers in the SE for a time. Then a weak ridge collapsing SE over the UK with fine and frosty weather for a short while before Atlantic West or NW winds develop and bring changeable and still rather cold weather to all parts by midweek next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning follows the theme of the rest with Low pressure sliding South into Biscay later this week and then exiting it away east over Europe filling as it goes. It's effects will be limited for the UK with an increase in the East wind at the end of the weekend the most noticeable feature rather than precipitation. The winds then back 180 degrees towards the West with wet and windy weather spreading across all areas next week followed by a cold North to NW flow with wintry showers later next week as a deep low pressure area lies to the NE of the UK by that time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart continues to suggest chilly NW winds across the UK in 10 days time with showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow under the influence of Low pressure over the North Sea and High pressure well to the SW and a Jet Stream well to the South and West of the UK too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a rather cold couple of weeks with a lot of dry weather to begin with before more unsettled conditions developing later in the period in a cold NW flow. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.9 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 88.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 70.7 pts to 65.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 54.4 pts to GFS's 53.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models have changed little over the last 24 hours and in general the main theme for the next few weeks is mirrored again this morning from yesterday. Taking it piece by piece we have a couple of rather cold days and some jolly cold nights to come with sharp frosts. Sunny spells through the day will make things feel OK away from the Northern facing coasts where a few wintry showers are likely. Complications begin on Friday when Low pressure slides South and develops swinging winds back into a cold SE, East then NE direction across the South of the UK making it feel very raw. Further North the weather looks like staying cold, fine and frosty. There is also of course the chance that some precipitation attached to the fronts from this Low will edge up into the South for a time with just a risk of a little rain, sleet or snow but this looks both marginal and limited in spread at best. Then as we look through next week the High pressure ridge to the North will move South cutting off the NE feed and returning windier westerly winds to the North. these subsequently spread to all areas next week as pressure falls from the North with the weather deteriorating for all with wind and rain followed by cold NW winds and wintry showers to end next week. As we look to the far end of the forecast period by far the most likely options shown within the clusters and ensembles today maintains a rather cold theme with NW winds across the UK and no doubt some rain or wintry showers to be had for many. Next Update Wednesday February 24th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY FEB 22ND 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak cold front is moving very slowly South across Southern Britain with colder air following on behind from the NW to lie across all of the British Isles by tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is falling across the South to lie between 1500ft-3500ft across all of the UK by the end of tomorrow with this level anticipated to be maintained for the majority of this week Wintry showers will pepper Northern and Eastern hills and coasts at times. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to trough strongly to lie well to the South of the UK by the end of the coming week in association with Low pressure there. Later in the period there is some suggestion of the flow migrating back North towards the UK but in an undulating form. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a couple of week with rather cold weather as the pattern of synoptics change to that we have seen of late. Low pressure develops to the South of the UK next weekend following a benign and quiet spell of weather this week with light winds through the run up to that with a few wintry showers and frosty nights. Then some rain, sleet or snow could affect the South for a time in a week with a very raw ENE wind. Then as we move further out the weather reverts to more changeable conditions again in mostly NW winds with rain and strong winds at times with conditions largely staying rather cold for much of the time allowing some snowfall on hills of the North. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today follows a similar route to the Operational with a slow return of Atlantic West or NW winds in Week 2 with rain at times following a week to 10 days of rather cold weather especially in the South where some rain, sleet or snow could occur a week from now in a cold and raw ENE wind for a time early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today suggest NW winds the most likely position we find ourselves in two weeks time. There are varying degrees of whether such a flow is cyclonic or anticyclonic based dependent on how close depressions to the NE are or how close the High pressure to the SW lies in relation to the UK in what appears likely to be rather cold conditions overall. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure slowly sinking South across the UK later this week and ending up to the South of the UK next weekend. In the interim period a lot of quiet and benign rather cold conditions seem likely with frost at night before some rain or perhaps sleet moves in from the West towards the weekend leading to a cold and windy weekend especially in the South with rain, sleet and hill snow a risk here while the North could stay cold and frosty. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today shows quiet conditions through the working week with no more than occasional wintry showers in a slack North or NW flow this week and these mostly focused towards Northern and Eastern coasts. Fronts are shown to be approaching the West of the UK by the weekend as Low pressure develops and slips South to the West of the UK come Saturday. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows a lot of cold and eventually windy weather as Low pressure migrates to the South of the UK late this week and more especially next weekend and in the South where a strong and very raw East to NE wind develops for a time with some rain or snow in places. The NE flow is then cut off briefly as a ridge pushes up from the SW with frosts developing for many before further cold and unsettled weather is shown to move down from the NW again next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM looks broadly similar in theme to the rest with the Low pressure areas slipping South of the UK by next weekend before filling up as a ridge develops from the SW across the UK by the start of next week cutting off the flow and introducing cold and frosty weather replacing the cold and raw conditions across the South next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning follows the theme of the rest too with a spell of cold weather lasting for much of the period. Through this week a cold Northerly is the main ingredient and although the wind will be quite light some wintry showers will pepper the coasts at times and rain will threaten the South at first and again through next weekend as a raw NE flow develops in the South for a time perhaps with a little hill snow in places. This is then displaced next week as somewhat less cold WNW winds develop for a time with rain and strong winds gradually pushing SE across the UK with cold air threatening again towards the end of the period towards the second weekend behind the Low pressure bringing the milder conditions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today strongly supports the NW flow hinted at by other output too for the start of Spring with the likelihood of chilly NW winds bringing rather cold weather to many areas to start March with rain at times falling as snow at times on higher ground as the pattern of High pressure well to the SW and Low pressure over and to the NE of Britain establishes. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme is for a rather cold couple of weeks with a lot of dry weather to begin with before more unsettled conditions developing later in the period. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 92.0 pts to UKMO at 90.0 pts and GFS at 88.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 71.8 pts to 65.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 54.6 pts to ECM's 54.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Some good consolidation between the models this morning on the process of how colder air than of late establishes across the UK this week and then looks set to remain in one shape or form for some time. We currently have a weak cold front straddling the South of the UK which is set to clear tomorrow and set up a spell of slack and cold Northerly winds with some wintry showers near Northern and Eastern coasts and hills and more importantly give rise to some sharp night frosts under clear skies. Then towards the weekend pressure will of fallen somewhat across the UK and with troughs trying to edge in from the West some cloud, rain and hill snow could affect the West and SW for a while towards the weekend. As the parent depression bringing this weather develops further and lies to the South of the UK a spell of raw and cold ENE winds in the South will develop and there could be a little rain or snow in extreme Southern counties for a time. Then next week shows a strong build of pressure ridging up from the SW and though cold with frosts at night it will feel less so as the winds will of died. Looking further ahead still the models are pretty much in agreement that further rather cold and unsettled weather will move down over the UK wth rain and snow at times in winds settling strong NW'ly. This theme has strong support from both the GFS Cluster data and the ECM 10 day Mean Chart this morning which means it has a good chance of verifying and falls in line with the Met Office predictions of late too. So there we have it a couple of weeks of cold weather to come, something that I have all too rarely said this Winter. However, for those seeking snowfall things look less exciting and while there are some chances of this over the period and not just in the North widespread snow events look unlikely with the hills of the North as usual the most likely locations to see this late in the period as the NW'ly flow strengthens then. Frosts look much more common with someone somewhere having frosts most nights through the period. So for now at least Spring weather looks on hold which in itself is a turnaround on recent weather patterns and things may not feel too bad as the days are now lengthening by 2mins/day night and morning at this time of the year. Next Update Tuesday February 23rd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY FEB 21ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild Westerly flow covers the South of the UK while a cold westerly flow covers Scotland and Northern Ireland. Separating the two is a slow moving frontal trough oscillating North and South over Central Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK currently sees the level at 10000ft over Southernmost England and 2000ft across Scotland where some snowfall is likely across the higher ground in the form of showers. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to trough strongly to lie well to the South of the UK by the end of the coming week in association with Low pressure there. Later in the period there is some suggestion of the flow migrating back North towards crossing West to East across the UK in Week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the UK heading for a shift to generally rather cold conditions as the current Westerly flow weakens in the days ahead at the same time as rather colder air seeps slowly South to all areas from Scotland over the next 48hrs. Thereafter winds will strengthen from the east or NE for the first time this season and bring cold and raw conditions with rain and sleet at times with snow over the hills especially towards the South and East, Then in the second week a slow return of West or NW winds and changeable conditions is shown with rain at times and snow at times on hills of the North. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today shows a similar theme to the Operational Run with this weeks colder conditions gradually returning back to less cold and changeable conditions with Atlantic westerlies through Week 2. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a lot of marginality between them ranging from a slight bias in favour of High pressure lying to the South in two weeks time but with many other options too none of which look particularly troublesome in terms of cold or any other severe weather type. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows quite a quiet week to come on the while as pressure becomes quite slack over the UK as it gently falls in response to Low pressure slipping SE to the West of the UK by next weekend. Colder air will slowly become established across the UK through the week with some frosts and rain or sleet later following the wintry showers across the North and East beforehand. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today supports the theme of the raw data with the UK lying in nomansland weather-wise this week as no real pressure system has overall control of the UK weather. The main theme though supports colder and fair conditions with just coastal wintry showers through the middle section of the week before approaching fronts from the Low pressure to the West threaten the SW by next weekend.. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM too shows the UK slowly slipping into colder conditions overall as the current pressure pattern is reversed by the end of this week with the current westerly flow becoming slack over the coming days and then reverses to an Easterly flow by next weekend with some rain or sleet at times across the South from next weekend with a raw wind and cloudy skies. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM is quite gentle on conditions across the UK over the next week with slack pressure over us and major pressure systems staying off shore from the UK. The current mildness over the South will be replaced by colder air over the coming days but largely dry and bright weather will prevail through the week though a few coastal wintry showers and cloudier spells in the South with a little rain or perhaps sleet seem possible at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning follows the theme of slack pressure developing across the UK through the coming week and continuing on this run well into the second week too. In weather terms although details are elusive the theme would suggest rather chilly and benign weather on most days with temperatures certainly declining away from current levels in the South. With no major Low pressure systems making landfall across the UK rainfall will be patchy and unevenly distributed and with temperatures lower than of late some snow or sleet is likely over hills but unlikely to be disruptive or bothersome for most away from the highest ground. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today is made up from a lot of different options most of which show rather cold air across the UK with some showing a chilly Easterly flow while others hold the majority of members in a NW flow with some showers and Low pressure to the East or NE and higher pressure towards the SW. The confidence on the viewpoint shown by the Mean chart this morning is low. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme is for a rather quiet and benign period of weather to develop across the UK this week lasting for some time. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 92.1 pts to UKMO at 90.0 pts and GFS at 88.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 71.9 pts to 66.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 53.7 pts to ECM's 53.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS In the couple days since my last report the models seem to have developed some clarification in what is quite a complex pattern synoptically over the next week or two. In sequential terms what we have currently is a sharp contrast North to South across the UK separated by a wavering front across Northern England. To the North of it the Westerly flow brings wintry showers and cold conditions while to the South of it dull and drizzly but very mild weather continues for another day or so. Then the front moves gently South clearing the South on Tuesday with quiet and rather cold conditions developing countrywide for many areas for the middle section of the week with some coastal wintry showers confined to the North and East while frosts at night could become widespread. Things complicate later in the week and through the second week as Low pressure is progged to move South of the UK by next weekend and while this would normally suggest a very cold period across the UK at this time of year no seriously cold air is available to tap into so instead it looks likely that the weather will just stay rather cold and in places dull and raw with rain or sleet at times and perhaps snow over the hills. It may equally prove that the North stays bright and cold with night frosts through this period before the general theme of a slow return to Atlantic West or NW winds seem probable through the second week with rain at times especially in the North with snow on hills still likely and temperatures back to average or slightly below. So there it is nothing too dramatic to report on the weather over the UK in the coming couple of weeks and while very mild weather is unlikely no desperately cold weather looks probable either though with better synoptics than recently that support cold I suppose there is always the chance of a surprise wintry event for someone. Next Update Monday February 22nd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY FEB 19TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A milder and stronger Westerly flow will develop behind a trough of Low pressure moving East over the UK today clearing all but Southern England tonight and returning North as a waving feature across the Southern half of the UK in the coming days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across much of the UK is on the rise for many today as fronts move East introducing tropical air across the far South through the weekend and rising the freezing level to as high as 10,000ft come Sunday while North of the front in Scotland freezing levels will be around 2000ft meaning a big contrast across the UK.. Snowfall will remain restricted to Scottish mountains through this weekend. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream strengthens over the coming days blowing in a West to East direction across the UK for some time before slipping further South later next week as a UK trough develops. Thereafter the flow appears to realign SW to NE across Scotland at the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today maintains it's changeable theme with some colder periods especially over the first week with wintry showers and with equally milder periods too across the South with cloudy and occasionally rainier times. Little changes within Week 2 though with higher pressure due to closer proximity to High pressure to the South and SW at times there may be less in the way of rain in the South longer term and temperatures never look like being particularly cold in the South either by then with wintry showers in polar maritime incursions restricted to the North. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today shows a changeable and sometimes rather cold theme going for all areas throughout the two week period as successive Low pressure areas crossing the UK and exiting the East swings winds into a cold NW flow at times with wintry showers at times before less cold and milder Atlantic air returns. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show 70% of members clustering around a solution that would maintain Atlantic Westerly breezes with rain at times with some colder NW winds shown by 35% of members within this group. There is a remaining 30% of members who place High pressure over or close to the UK with fine and dry weather more likely with frost and fog patches by night in light anticyclonic winds. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure up to the NE of the UK early next week with another centre out in the Atlantic preventing the cold NW feed shown by other output from reaching the South where it will probably stay mild until midweek whereas the North sees colder conditions with wintry showers. Then as the Low in the Atlantic shifts across the UK and away to the East the door then opens more for colder air with wintry showers to reach the South too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today go against there raw data and push the colder NW flow down across the UK early next week with a subsequent ridge drying things out midweek before signs of further Low pressure entering the West by Day 5 from the West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows a Westerly component to the winds across the UK throughout the next 10 days. Next week shows a lot of NW winds and wintry showers across the North whereas the milder South becomes somewhat chillier over Monday. Then after the chilly theme of next week signs of a split in conditions between a milder SW and a colder at times North and East where further rain and showers, wintry on hills look feasible in stronger NW winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM is somewhat different evaporating the milder West winds over the South this weekend and replacing it with a complex slack pattern of Low pressure across the UK later next week with rain at times, falling as sleet or snow over the hills. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows a lot of SE moving Low pressure next week as the mild Westerly flow at the weekend is pushed away by chilly NW winds and showers, wintry on Northern hills from Monday. A small disturbance near the far South midweek could prove problematical in detail for a time where some rain and hill snow is possible before all areas become rather cold and unsettled as Low pressure slips SE across all areas late next week and becomes slow to clear from the South in a wrap around Easterly flow with rain and sleet. High pressure then straddling the North of the UK from both the SW and NE ensure cold and drier weather here to end the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the Jet stream a long way South in 10 days with a NW feed of air most likely across the UK with Low pressure close to the NE stretching up to the NW. Rain at times look the most likely pattern with a lot of the rain showery in nature and under a NW flow some colder air at times would likely bring some snow at times to the hills. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are again many differences in evolution shown this morning of a broad Westerly based weather pattern between the outputs this morning with little specific cohesion between outcomes from quite early next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 92.0 pts to UKMO at 89.9 pts and GFS at 88.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 70.9 pts to 66.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 51.7 pts to GFS's 51.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Not a lot of clarification in future events shown from the models this morning. The weekend is well agreed upon though with most areas facing yet another weekend of largely cloudy skies with rain at times in a blustery but mild Westerly flow. Central areas could see the most rainfall while Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland see colder and more showery weather and this is then shown to push SE across the UK early next week. It's then that the models diverge mostly surrounding the way in which a shallow Low in the Atlantic integrates with the pattern across the UK with some output showing this becoming a major system with gales and rain for a time others show it as a filling and weak feature with just patchy rain in the South. The pattern then becomes no clearer as from some runs we have High pressure to the South and SW becoming more influential with time and supporting a Jet Stream further North whereas the likes of ECM prefer keeping the Jet Stream well South of the UK and maintaining a NW feed of rain and showers falling as sleet and snow in rather cold air at times as Low pressure areas are shown to continue to slip SE down the North Sea. So as we approach the weekend the models need to handle the pattern next week better before any guarantees of any particular weather type looks likely. The one thing I can say is that nothing alarmist is shown in any output this morning with pretty bog standard Winter fare weather shown for many in the next few weeks. I'll be back on Sunday morning for a further update. Next Update Sunday February 21st 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY FEB 18TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The remains of yesterday's frontal trough will clear SE England this morning leaving all areas under a rather cold and somewhat showery Westerly flow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across much of the UK is close to the 2000ft mark. Snowfall will be restricted to hills above 600ft or so in the form of well scattered showers though perhaps a little lower under the frontal boundary over the SE at first. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will surge West to East across the UK over the next few days and remain in a fairly similar position for some considerable while undulating 400-500mls North and South at times. Towards the end of the period there are signs that the flow could move well NW of the UK to lie in a NE flow near the Iceland region. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today still shows a generally rather chilly and changeable pattern across the UK through the next few weeks. Low pressure areas are shown to continue to pass to the North or down across the UK at times alternating with some drier and colder periods as ridges of High pressure pass over. The trend towards the end of the period appears to be for High pressure to become more influential from the South or SW for longer periods with cold frosty nights developing for many but with some compensatory almost spring-like sunny days in average temperatures between less active rain and shower bands. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today shows a trend towards very changeable conditions with some short cold spells with some snow for some alternating with equally short milder and rainier periods as several areas of Low pressure areas sink down across the UK at times and give bursts of occasional very cold NE winds on their rear side before milder winds from the West return for a spell again thereafter with an almost rinse and repeat pattern ending the UK cold and potentially wintry under a Northerly flow at the end of the forecast period with High pressure out to the West in the Atlantic. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today have shown a marked increase in pushing High pressure previously well to the SW much closer in to South or SW Britain in 14 days time with rain bearing fronts and the Jet stream returning to more Northern latitudes. Only a 25% cluster indicate a colder Northerly theme down across the UK with Low pressure over Scandinavia with the other 75% showing variations upon the High pressure to the South and SW theme. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an interesting set-up in that A) it delays the NW flow early next week as another Low that only NAVGEM replicates moves into the UK and keeps unsettled and wet conditions longer with colder air filtering down from the North across the UK early next week with snowfall gradually feeding further and further South towards midweek. and B) this delays the onset of the transitory ridge midweek that other outputs show. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the rather chilly Westerly flow currently across the UK chased away by advancing Atlantic milder westerly winds behind warm fronts moving East tomorrow. The weekend is then characterized by a frontal trough trailing across England and Wales with further rain and drizzle in mild air while Scotland becomes colder and more showery again, this extending quickly SE to all areas on Monday. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows a Westerly component to the winds across the UK throughout the next 10 days. Whereas nothing distinctly cold is likely some colder periods with wintry showers such as is shown for early next week will occur at times under a general theme of rain or showers at times in average or fractionally below average temperatures for most of the time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a variation on a theme of Low pressure over Scandinavia early next week but in it's run absorbs a new Low moving in off the Atlantic to form a complex Low pressure over the UK midweek with rain and showers, falling as sleet or snow over the hills as temperatures fall after a mild weekend for many to levels near or somewhat below average at the end of the week long period covered by this model. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning is potentially the most wintry of the set this morning showing the theme of a mild and in places wet weekend yet again quickly replaced by windy and cold NW winds and wintry showers early next week. This in itself is then shown to be displaced by further Atlantic Low pressure feeding in from the WNW setting up a Low complex across the UK by next weekend. Pressure at this time is shown to be trying to build well to the North of the UK and if this develops could greatly increase the risks of more widespread cold weather and potential snow for many towards the end of the period if the Low pressure complex near the UK orientates itself favourably. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the Jet stream a long way South in 10 days with Low pressure close to northern Scotland and High pressure well away to the SW. The UK looks likely to lie in a NW flow with rain or showers at times in temperatures near to or a little below average with snow a risk on hills of the North at least at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are many differences in evolution shown this morning of a broad Westerly based weather pattern between the outputs this morning with little specific cohesion between outcomes felt across the UK at the surface. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 92.0 pts to UKMO at 89.9 pts and GFS at 88.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.7 pts to 65.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 51.6 pts to ECM's 51.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Quite an interesting set of output this morning with no clear direction shown between different models as to where we might end up in two weeks time. The main message is still one of Atlantic domination but the disagreements are in the eventual positioning of both the Jet Stream and whether High pressure is allowed to build somewhat later in the period to the North of the UK similar to what this morning's ECM Operational run shows. These two factors will determine whether we remain relatively changeable with mild rainy periods alternating with colder showery ones whereas the ECM route could lead us into something rather more wintry for many towards he turn of the month. The Jury is well and truly out at the moment as the GFS Clusters in particular this morning has shown a marked shift in pushing the Jet Stream further North longer term and bringing less wet and relatively mild weather to the UK when compared to ECM who in their 10 day mean chart shows Low pressure stretching down across the UK from Iceland with a Jet Stream well South of the UK meaning wet and probably cold weather more likely from this model a pattern that looks unlikely to move towards the GFS Solution at day 14. So with such diversities shown between outputs longer term I can only be speculative in my predictions this morning but given the next weeks hemispheric profile I think ECM may have a better handle on the outcome and I would edge towards the fact that GFS may well edge towards a more ECM like outcome for later next week over the next few days. As is often the case and never a truer word said 'more runs are needed' before a better confidence in any one outcome beyond a week from now can be interpreted. Next Update Friday February 19th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY FEB 17TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A frontal trough will continue to move slowly and erratically East across the UK today and tonight followed by a ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the South of the UK lies around 5000ft or so across the South and nearer 2000ft over Scotland. Through the day and tonight the freezing level will fall over England and Wales to around 2000ft so that the level is broadly the same everywhere with snow showers across the hills and mountains of the North. Some sleet or snow may turn up on higher ground of England and Wales above 1000ft later today and tonight especially towards the Midlands and the SE. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will strengthen across the Atlantic Ocean over the coming days surging across the UK through the weekend and next week. Then the flow becomes more sine wave with a period of deep troughing across the UK late next week and a more diffuse pattern developing thereafter. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a generally rather chilly and changeable pattern across the UK through the next few weeks. In Summary the run shows a lot of Atlantic based weather with spells of rain followed by spells of showers and colder conditions with snow in places and not necessarily just on Northern hills at times. A period of more generally cold weather as Low pressure slips South across the UK late next week is shown lasting several days as High pressure builds behind with sharp night frosts. Then towards the end of the period more rather cold Low pressure is shown to slip down over the UK from the NW with further rain or perhaps snow at times. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run also shows a strong Atlantic influence to the weather pattern across the UK through the next few weeks. The alternating pattern of milder vs colder is also shown on this run although there seems a milder phase through the start of the second week as High pressure to the South pushes the Jet Stream North for a time and allows tropical maritime air into the mix in the South at least before it looks more changeable and rather cold again across many areas by the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still show a lot of support for a NW flow to lie across the UK in two weeks time. As of previous days the differences between members remain focused on what extent this NW flow has both on temperatures and unsettledness of the weather likely across the UK with High pressure either focused near the Azores or displaced further North in the Atlantic. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a strong Westerly flow with heavy rain on Saturday swept away East on Sunday as a cold front sweeps through from the WNW. Then the early days of next week look cold and windy with wintry showers and frosts at night especially across the North and West. A ridge of High pressure is then shown to approach the UK from the Atlantic by midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today support the raw data reasonably accurately as it shows the slack pressure of the next few days reinvigorating to a strong Westerly flow by the weekend with fronts straddling England and Wales by then with heavy rain at times but milder too. Then a cold front is shown to sweep SE on Sunday with colder showery air reaching all areas with some wintry showers across the North and West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows a complex Atlantic weather based pattern over the 10 day period with winds basically Westerly throughout with rain or showers at times. With much cold air to the North of the UK there is every chance indicated in the model that the air over the UK could be often cold enough for snow on hills especially as usual over Northern Britain and more generally late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM painta a changeable picture this morning and has small differences to the majority of the other models in as much as it shows milder conditions across the South lasting rather longer over the weekend still with rain at times though. Then next week the pattern remains changeable with colder air sweeping SE with some wintry showers in places giving way to drier weather with some night frosts by this time next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning looks very changeable over the next 10 days with the current wet weather slipping away east tomorrow ahead of strengthening and milder westerly winds with rain at the weekend. Deep Low pressure to the NE early next week pulls strong cold NW winds with sleet or snow showers in places lasting until midweek when a frosty ridge passes across from the West. Then hot on it's heels the end of next week turns wet and windy again for many in closer to average temperatures again at least for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the Jet stream a long way South in 10 days with Low pressure close to northern Scotland and High pressure well away to the SW. The UK looks likely to lie in a NW flow with rain or showers at times in temperatures near to or a little below average with snow a risk on hills of the North at least at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall theme remains for a Westerly Atlantic based pattern in fluctuating temperatures and rain and showers at times. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.9 pts to UKMO at 89.9 pts and GFS at 89.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.6 pts to 65.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 51.8 pts to ECM's 51.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains elusive in the model outputs this morning and leaving temperatures aside it looks likely than the official Winter end of 2015-2016 will finish as it began with Atlantic based Westerly winds and rain at times the likely pattern as we enter the meteorological Spring. However, having said that the source of air for much of the period will ensure it is unlikely to be as mild as back in December as Low pressure areas to the North hone it much closer to the UK than then with rain, heavy at times for all areas followed by colder shower spells. With the Jet Stream still quite strong and a long way South at times it will feel rather cold for periods through the next few weeks and although widespread long lasting cold remains unlikely some short cold snaps between weather systems could provide enough excitement at times to provide some heavy showers with snow in places and possibly hail and thunder too especially in the North. Not much else to say really this morning with the main differences between the models focusing on timing and orientation of various weather systems as they cross the UK leading to day to day differences in the weather experienced at the surface within the general framework of the Atlantic based Westerly pattern. Next Update Thursday February 18th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY FEB 16TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure over England and Wales will decline away SE tonight and tomorrow as a complex cold frontal trough moves slowly SE across the UK reaching all but the far SE tomorrow decelerating as it does. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the South of the UK is 2000ft currently. Further North milder air for a time has pushed the freezing level up to nearer 6000ft and this narrowing zone of milder air will sink South and East across all areas over the 48hr period with rain and some snowfall over the hills both early and late in the rainfall period http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream troughing down over the UK in the next couple of days will strengthen later in the week and thereafter with a surge West to East of the flow across the UK for most of next week. Thereafter it becomes more undulating again in the vicinity of 50-55deg North of the equator. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the chilly and in places wintry couple of days still to come gradually changing to milder Atlantic Westerlies over the weekend with some rain in places. That will not necessarily be the last of the cold weather though as on various occasions over the rest of the run the Westerly flow veers NW and brings down rather cold and showery conditions at times with snow in places especially over the North. There will also be some mild weather in the South and in general a theme towards drier weather for many late in the period as High pressure builds across the UK with some night frosts in places. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run also shows a strong Atlantic influence to the weather pattern across the UK through the next few weeks. On this run rather cold conditions look more common than not with chilly NW flows repeatedly spreading down across the UK behind passing depressions with rain and wintry showers at times for many. The run doesn't really support the rise of pressure across the UK either late in the period, instead maintaining occasionally windy and wet conditions with rain and wintry showers still probable for most. Any milder conditions n this run look most restricted to short periods across the South only. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show West or NW winds the most likely scenario in 14 days between High pressure well to the SW and Low pressure close to the North and NE. Rain, showers, wintry on hills remain the main theme expected with as much as nearly a 70% to 30% split in favour of this weather type with the 30% showing High pressure somewhat closer to the SW with resultant drier conditions. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a strong Westerly flow developing across the UK over the weekend as Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South and SW take control. Rain at times over the weekend looks likely to give way to showery and colder conditions again by the start of the new week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today replicate the raw data reasonably well bringing milder Atlantic Westerlies to all over the weekend following the complex and in places wintry trough structure likely to move slowly East across England and Wales tomorrow and Thursday. Milder air is then held across the South later in the weekend while the North becomes colder again at times with wintry showers in places. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today brings the UK back into the pattern of weather that the UK has endured for much of the Winter over the weekend as Low pressure passing to the North of Scotland brings spells of rain at times and milder temperatures mixed with colder spells with showers, wintry on hills in the North next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar route with regard to the milder Atlantic Westerlies establishing towards and over the weekend with rain at times for many before a change back to colder conditions return early next week with strong Westerly winds turning NW'ly and bringing wintry showers and night frosts to many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning is by far showing the most complex weather pattern as although the theme of milder air chasing the current cold pool of air away East towards the weekend is underlined by all output it is by far the end of the chill as after a weekend of rain at times this run shows a strong and cold NW flow developing early next week with wintry showers, heavy in the North and West and this leading into a complex and slacker pattern when almost anything can happen but most likely to stay cold with rain, sleet and snow a risk in all areas at times later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is compiled from a mix of options this morning ranging from Low pressure to the NE and NW all providing largely unsettled weather across the UK with rain or showers at times, wintry on hills at times especially in the North with High pressure in home territory towards the Azores. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall theme remains for a Westerly Atlantic based pattern around Low pressure likely in 10 days time with rain at times and temperatures close to or below average especially in the North. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.8 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.9 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 89.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.6 pts to 65.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 52.4 pts to ECM's 50.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The conditions across the UK in the immediate future command the most interest still this morning as a complex and decelerating Low pressure trough edges ESE down across the UK tonight and tomorrow. With cold air ahead of it and behind it any milder air is being squeezed out and a messy mix of rain, sleet or snow could result the latter most likely over the hills. Then remaining rain and snow over the SE on Thursday will be pushed away East by a strengthening Jet stream bringing milder air across the UK by the weekend with rain at times for many. Then as we look forward to next week there is a lot of support for another spell of windy and wet weather across the UK but also some support for colder NW'ly spells to develop in between as well when the return of wintry showers and night frosts look possible. ECM has also thrown a curve ball this morning and developing cold and unstable air further later in it's run following a cold and strong NW'ly although this theme doesn't have too much support from it's ensemble and mean chart. Alternatively GFS shows the chance of High pressure across the UK later on also bringing colder weather but under that scenario sunny days and night frosts look more likely. So that's where we are this morning with a lot of indecision on the specifics beyond this weekend but I feel a changeable Westerly or at times NW'ly pattern is favoured from early next week with a mix of weather types ranging from slightly mild and wet conditions to colder weather with showers, wintry in the North. Next Update Wednesday February 17th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY FEB 15TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move slowly East across the UK today and tonight eliminating the cold Northerly flow over the East. A trough of Low pressure will then advance slowly ESE across Scotland and Northern Ireland later tonight and tomorrow in a strengthening SSW flow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is currently fairly universal at or around 2000ft across the UK. Snow showers in the Northeast will reduce through the day. Freezing levels will rise across Scotland and Northern Ireland tomorrow as rain and hill snow moves in from the WNW. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream lighter than recently will tumble down across the UK over the next few days in association with the UK midweek trough. It then strengthens from the weekend and crosses the East over the North of the UK before the axis moves South again later to lie West to East over Southern Britain and France later in Week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a strong ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK followed by a trough of Low pressure moving erratically ESE midweek and bringing rain to many and the risk of some snow for a time for some especially in the East. Following on behind will be a spell of chilly and bright weather before Atlantic Westerly winds bring milder weather to all areas with changeable conditions with wet and windy weather alternating with colder brighter weather with showers especially later in the period. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run looks quite similar in theme to the Operational Run with a cold working week with rain and snow in places midweek giving way slowly to milder and stronger Atlantic winds and rain at times especially in the North with still the likelihood of some colder interludes in showery NW winds at times as weather systems pass by. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today continue to support winds blowing from a West to NW direction across the UK in two weeks time with varying degrees of influence from Low pressure always up to the North of the UK. there is some degree of support too that suggests High pressure may be quite close to the South of the UK restricting the worst of wind and rain towards the North. This currently has a level of 25% support from members which is more than yesterday. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the midweek trough stalling across the South soon after midweek with an awkward mix of rain and snow over Central and Eastern areas and on the hills. Then the trough weakens towards the end of the week and is given a kick up the backside as milder and stronger Westerly winds blow across the UK at the weekend with some rain for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today replicate the raw data well and illustrate the complexities of pinning down the detail of the exit east of the trough across the UK midweek. It does succeed however towards the weekend as milder Atlantic winds give it a shove away East into Europe. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today follows the theme with milder and more changeable mobile conditions developing across the UK from next weekend leading on to an unsettled week next week with rain at times and colder showery conditions in between. The run does show the sinking South of the Jet Stream later bringing the risk of heavy rain equal to all areas next week after prioritising it towards the North in the early days of the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a much broader trough from the middle of the week with cold weather with some rain and snow in places as the rough decelerates across the UK. milder air does eventually take over through with a more typical Westerly flow across the UK by this time next week with rain and strong winds at times in near average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM shows the current ridge declining away East as the trough up to the NW slides in towards midweek with the same mix of rain and hill snow shown by the other output moving across the UK West to East. After lingering for a while over the East and SE the whole thing is swept away east by much milder Westerly winds with rain at times changing to colder and showery conditions at times, this especially towards the North. High pressure is shown close to the South at Day 10 indicating the chance of more settled weather for many at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today maintains the theme of Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High to the South and SW likely across the UK in 10 days time with rain at times in the North and West especially and temperatures never that far from the seasonal average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall message is a little mixed but with the theme of milder Westerly winds in 10 days following a messy period when milder air may be delayed for a time through midweek this week remains the main agreements behind today's output. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.8 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.4 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 88.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.2 pts to 65.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 52.1 pts to ECM's 50.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The main focus of interest in the models today remains the erratic passage of a cold front across the UK midweek and it's subsequent clearance to eventual milder conditions likely to cross the UK from the West at the weekend. This week though sees some very cold air across the UK put in place by a cold NE flow decaying under a strong ridge of High pressure, We then see a cold front up to the NW move East across the UK midweek, decelerating and becoming more complex as potential small disturbances run along it as the cold air across the East proves stubborn to shift at the same time as the air to the West of the trough is none too warm either. However, all models show it all cleared East out of the UK by next weekend as the Jet Stream re-invigorates and moves across the North of the UK bringing milder and at times stronger Westerly winds with rain at times with the emphasis of this being towards the North and West. Then as we move through next week 'changeable' weather looks the best term to use as the pattern of High pressure to the South and SW and Low pressure to the North looks the most likely pattern to verify. All areas will see some rain and also some colder interludes as weather systems pass by with polar maritime air giving some wintriness to the showers in the North of the UK. Looking really long term there seems nothing to suggest any major late Winter cold outbreak with the Jet Stream still dictating the direction the UK weather takes with it's traditional West to East flow not undulating enough or far enough South to open the door to anything more than fleeting cold snaps I'm afraid. Next Update Tuesday February 16th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY FEB 14TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will advance East across the UK tomorrow following the weakening of a cold and dry NE flow which is currently whisking away the cloudy damp troughs of Low pressure over the South of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is now fairly universal at or around 2000ft across the UK. Snow showers in the North and East will continue to give local accumulations of snow there mostly but not exclusively over the hills and mountains. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is blowing due east South of the UK currently. Over the next few days the flow buckles North and ridges across the UK as a ridge passes East. The flow then continues to undulate remaining largely well South over Europe and either travelling South over or near the UK until Week 2 when the flow becomes West to East across the UK again for a time at least. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a strong ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK over the coming days with cold and frosty air within. Then by midweek Atlantic troughs run into the cold air from the West decelerating as they do with a messy mix of rain and snow West to East across the UK from Wednesday gradually dying out from most by Friday with clearer and rather cold weather following on behind with a few wintry showers in the NW. Thereafter the run shows milder Atlantic Westerly winds returning to all areas with rather cloudy and breezy weather with rain at times the order of the day through the second week. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run again follows a similar path through Week 1 with the second week showing changeable conditions too with Westerly winds and rain or showers and some snow too especially in the North as alternating temperatures affect all areas of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today mostly support West or NW winds across the UK in 2 weeks time with rain or showers plus hill snow very likely as Low pressure dominates the UK weather close to Scotland. There is very limited support for any High pressure based weather with just 15% of members supporting any influence of High pressure at all down to the SW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the early week ridge giving way to a cold front crossing East and SE across al areas midweek. Moving into cold air snow is a threat for many before the front decelerates and decays over SE areas as chilly WNW winds and occasional wintry showers affect other areas before milder Westerly winds arrive certainly for the North by the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the complex trough structure moving down over the UK from the NW later this coming week following a strong ridge of High pressure crossing East over all areas up to that point. The air is shown to be chilly both ahead and behind the front with wintry showers following the main band of rain, sleet and snow on the front itself. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today follows the pack in the complex movement of an occluded front moving SE across the UK midweek with a mix of rain, sleet and snow in places for several days around the Wednesday/ Thursday time point before the pattern simplifies to a West or WNW flow, often chilly and showery with some shorter milder rainy spells as troughs cross East over the UK at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM was unavailable for some reason or another at time of issue. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM also shows a trough crossing SE midweek, running into the cold air over the UK and offering a heady mix of rain, sleet and snow. Following on behind will also be a lot of chilly air with wintry showers and night frosts likely. Into next weekend and the following week it looks like some more chilly and showery west or NW winds with wintry showers will alternate with milder rainy weather over the South at times as weather systems pass by to the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the Jet stream near to the South of the UK with West or NW winds looking the likely position we find ourselves in at the 10 day time point between Low pressure to the North and perhaps the NE of the UK and High pressure well to the South and SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall message is a little mixed but with the theme of milder Westerly winds in 10 days following a messy period when milder air may be delayed for a time through midweek next week remains the main agreements behind today's output. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.5 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 88.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.5 pts to 65.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 51.2 pts to ECM's 50.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS back after a short break and this morning the theme of the output doesn't look so very different to what it was on Thursday when I last compiled this report. The last hurrah of the weekend's chilly and damp weather is leaving the South coast as I speak and opening the door to a cold NNE flow with wintry showers in the East. Pressure will be rising very rapidly across the UK over the next 24-48hrs and a strong ridge will cover the UK as a result by late Monday and into Tuesday. It looks unlikely to hold though as a complex Low pressure trough associated by Low pressure well to the North moves into the UK cold air with all sorts of fun and games looking possible for a time as a result. The front will bring in a spell of rain for all with the undetermined factor being how much of that falls as sleet or snow with the East and SE looking best favoured for that as it stands. Whatever happens it will stay cold for many through the working week as even following the trough the air is cold enough for wintry showers for Western and Northern areas. The models from next weekend do suggest less cold conditions at times without ever showing anything remarkably mild for very long periods before colder and more showery conditions return from the West and NW at times. All areas in Week 2 look like seeing some rain or showers with snowfall on hills at times especially in the North. Overall temperatures look likely to be near or a little below average at times as various pressure systems and air masses pass over any any place day to day. It still looks bad news for anyone looking for sustained dry and fine weather and although winds are largely Westerly later in the period the air is likely to be chillier than we have seen on these winds for much of the Winter gone so I'm sure we will think it rather cold for much of the time. Next Update Monday February 15th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY FEB 11TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A Slack West or SW flow lies across the UK with a weakening trough slipping South over Scotland and a Low pressure area slipping SE towards Northern France tonight and tomorrow with a strengthening Easterly flow over the North by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles remains at or around 1500ft across the North of the UK and nearer to 4000ft across Southern England. Some snow showers may occur over the mountains of Wales North England and Scotland over the next 24-48hrs. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the South at the weekend. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is blowing due east to the South of the UK today. It maintains this position for several more days before the flow splits next week with one arm under a deep trough to the South and a weaker arm going North of the UK. This pattern then persists for some time before towards the end of the run the flow becomes more defined in a West to East flow across the UK at the term of the run. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows benign conditions over the next few days as it stays rather chilly with a few showers. Over the weekend the South sees rain as Low pressure slides ESE across Southern Britain with some of this turning to snow as it engages developing cold East and then North winds across the UK by early next week. Following this a period of cold, clear and frosty weather under a strong ridge of High pressure becomes displaced by further cloudy and rainy weather coming in from the West later next week. This develops a battle with the increasingly high Scandinavian Pressure and disrupts the troughs away SE and again producing the risk of colder weather with some snow for some. It's then not until towards the end of the second week that Westerly winds finally take command in bringing milder winds with rain at times especially across the North and West GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run again largely follows the theme of the Operational Run with the weather pattern finally changing next week as the South in particular comes under and maintains the influence of High pressure by then to the East with any fronts moving in from the West weakening and disrupting SE as pressure builds back across the UK. On this run too it's not until the end of the second week that wet and windy Atlantic Low pressure moves across all areas from the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today all support High pressure lying just to the South or SW of the UK in 14 days. 15% of these support a cold North or NW flow as a result with cold conditions and showers as a result. Another 15% show High pressure close to the SE with much milder air for many with 70% showing High pressure to the SW with most of the unsettled Westerly winds affecting the North more than down here in the South. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Sunday and Monday being very cold across the UK with wintry showers near windward coasts of the North and East following Saturday's wet and windy conditions with snow on hills. Then as a strong High pressure ridge slips SE to lie across the South by midweek at the same time as milder SW winds re-establish across the North and West with some rain at times. The fine weather does look like it could hang on rather longer across the far South and East into late next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the difficult task that the models are having in the positioning of the Low pressure area expected to cross SW and South Britain at the weekend. This morning charts have adjusted the centre of Low pressure very close to the South coast before it gently moves away East into Europe early next week. Rain and sleet as a result in the South should slowly clear SE by Monday with a cold North or NE flow bringing wintry showers to the North and East for a time early next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today offers a much more straightforward evolution of high pressure sliding SE across the UK after this weekends Low complex moves away SE by early next week. The wind, rain, sleet and cold weather will be replaced later next week by milder Westerly winds with some rain at times especially in the North by the second weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM takes a much more complex route as High pressure having moved it's way SE across the UK early next week remains strong and influential to the East of the UK later delaying the progress of milder SW winds and in fact reversing the theme back towards colder and still somewhat unsettled weather across the UK as we lie under shallow Low pressure by the end of next week as a result of disrupting Low pressure around an Atlantic trough soon after midweek http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM also delays the milder weather reaching the UK next week as like NAVGEM it disrupts the trough that would otherwise bring milder Westerly winds and no doubt giving a day or two of raw, cloudy weather with a little rain instead before the Westerly flow eventually takes hold across the UK proper late next week with wind and rain spreading through all areas at times by the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today has taken a marked turn to bringing the Jet flow further North than has been shown in recent days with a North/South split in conditions in the weather looking more likely. So in 10 days I would suggest the greatest chance being that ECM thinks we will lie under a milder Westerly flow with rain at times chiefly over the North but to all areas at times http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall message is a little mixed but with the theme of milder Westerly winds in 10 days following a messy period when milder air may be delayed for a time through midweek next week being the main disagreements behind today's output. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.3 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 88.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.5 pts to 64.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 49.2 pts to ECM's 48.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The most complex part of today's output is the way each model handles the complex situation of the Low pressure areas slipping across the South of the UK and the way they remove this away early next week with a period of cold North winds and the eventual High pressure ridge which follows with very cold frosty air. This period as it stands currently shows rain most likely in the South with a messy mix of rain and snow over Wales and the Midlands before all areas turn bright, frosty and cold with some snow showers for a day or two near Northern and Eastern windward coasts early next week. There is then some further disagreements between the models as to how they remove that High pressure away to the SE and East as the milder and stronger Westerly winds moving down across the UK from midweek. Some output shows a strong build of pressure being maintained to the East which could prevent much progress of any milder winds with even the chance from some output suggesting further trough disruption late next week delaying the progress of milder air and resulting in a couple more cold and raw days before it seems a unison message towards the end of the forecast period that mild westerly winds win out. So a very complex set-up this morning none of which show anything particularly dramatic anywhere but could result in subtle differences weather and temperature wise day to day dependant upon which way the dice falls throughout the period and particularly later next week. Next Update Friday February 12th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY FEB 10TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A NW airflow across the UK today will weaken over the next 24 hours as a ridge moves slowly East across the UK backing winds to a light West or SW flow tomorrow http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles remains between 1500ft asl and 3000ft asl. ith only limited instability in the atmosphere today just scattered snow showers over the mountains of the North seem likely over the next 24 hours. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the South at the weekend. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream already to the South of the UK troughs even further South over the UK as Low pressure crosses to the South of the UK. the flow then ridges North next week under a strong pressure rise before the flow becomes more undulating day to day with some periods of west to East motion over the UK mixed with times of a Southerly or Northerly tracking flow at times. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows pressure quite low over the Uk for the next 4-5 days. The current benign and chilly conditions continue for a few days before things complicate as Low pressure in the Atlantic slips ESE across England and Wales towards and over the weekend. This looks like bringing a mix of rain and snow to the Southern half of the UK while Scotland is most likely to stay rather drier. Then a short and cold Northerly flow brings some snow showers South to all parts before a ridge collapsing SE across the UK brings a spell of cold and frosty conditions. Things then get much more complex again as pressure falls from the NW and with a pressure build shown over Scandinavia for a time more disrupting Low pressure slides SE across the UK with a further rain and snow mix. It's not until later in the second week when a more traditional pattern of Westerly winds with milder air bringing rain at times particularly to the North and West is shown to take control. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run largely follows the theme of the Operational Run with the one fundamental difference being the quicker return to a milder Westerly flow next week missing the second disrupting Low pressure area shown by the Operational run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still suggest strong support for High pressure to lie to the SW of the UK in 14 days. With strong support as well for Low pressure to be close to the North or NE all areas seem likely to keep unsettled and windy weather with rain and showers at times. With a Northerly sourced wind on occasions there remains room for some wintriness in the rain at times over the hills and in the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure slipping ESE across the South of the UK through the coming weekend. The current set fair weather will continue until Friday before some rain edges into the South from the SW on Friday. Then a more meaningful attack of Low pressure across England and Wales over the weekend brings a three way split in weather with rain in the far South, the possibility of snow across Central areas and brighter drier conditions over Scotland. The whole frontal complex then moves quickly away East come Monday with cold weather for all with snow showers in places. A quieter and frosty phase under a ridge of High pressure then crosses West to East across the UK through Tuesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show slack and benign pressure structures across the UK until Friday. The Fax Charts have now pushed the weekend fronts further North again this morning with the fronts and parent depressions making their way up into Southern Britain with rain and showers down here. Towards the Midlands and North a messy mix of rain and snow seems possible while the far North stays bright with wintry showers. This cold and windy Northerly weather type then extends quickly South and East to all areas by Monday as the Low pressure areas in the South pull away to Europe. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today is rather different longer term with the same procedure for the next 5 days indicated on this run as shown on the other models. The differences commence early next week as there is a less clean Northerly which in turn collapses the ridge crossing East more quickly and in turn returns wet and windy conditions by midweek or soon after. The Low pressure complex responsible then moves SE and brings cold and wintry showery type weather by the end of next week for all with winds swinging East in response to a strong rise of pressure over Scandinavia. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows a rather different shape to the synoptics next week as we exit the weekend Low pressure complex over the South of the UK and replace it with gently rising pressure and a drier day or two before Atlantic milder SW'lies move across the UK by midweek next week with some rain at times in the North and NW http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows a similar evolution to the main message from the pack this morning as the weekend Low pressure over the South moves away East by Monday in the wake of a strong High pressure ridge transiting East. Thereafter it's the theme of a return of strong Westerly winds with rain at times, firstly mostly over the North but extending South to all areas by the end of the run and seemingly returning us slowly to Square 1 by Day 10 with rain and wind at times for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today looks quite similar to the 10 day chart of it's operational indicating to me that confidence is quite high that the model has the pattern right with most likely conditions across the UK at Day 10 maintaining Atlantic based conditions between High pressure over the Azores and Low pressure near Iceland with rain and showers at times in temperatures close to average overall. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall message continues the theme of a more Westerly based weather pattern after a brief ridge early next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 88.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.1 pts to 64.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 48.9 pts to ECM's 47.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The main message given by this morning's output remains as yesterday for a return to Atlantic Westerly winds and rain at times once we have moved away from the current rather complex and cold pattern currently developing across the UK. What we have now is a somewhat slack and showery NW flow under relatively low pressure and there will be a few wintry showers scattered about over the next few days especially near exposed coasts adjacent to the light Westerly drift. It's from Friday on and particularly over the weekend when things complicate big time as a push of mild Atlantic Low pressure moving ESE towards Southern Britain engages the colder air over the UK and increases the risk of snow for some. Where this boundary lies is the main sticking point unconfirmed at present but on this morning's evidence it looks like plain old cold rain for the far South while the Midlands and Wales could be in for some snow while Scotland maintains the current bright with wintry shower type pattern. Later in the weekend pressure builds North through the Atlantic and a cold Northerly flow sweeps cold air across all areas briefly early next week. Some snow showers could be witnessed by many briefly before High pressure crosses east cutting off the North flow with some sunny and frosty weather for a day or two. Then for the second week of the output it's all about the return of milder Atlantic Westerlies again with rain and showers returning for many in milder air with this theme shown in various guises between the models. In summary there is something for everyone in this morning's run and while the weather is rather cold there is in my mind insufficiently cold air over the UK at the weekend to give rise to widespread snowfall but some areas on the higher ground may be lucky then with a slow theme of milder air returning later next week there is something for milder loving folks too although there is a lot of weather to get through before we reach that. Next Update Thursday February 11th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY FEB 9TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A westerly airflow across the UK will ease later and veer NW behind a weakening trough moving South over England and Wales tonight. Another trough near SE England will move away East this morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is now rather lower than of late with levels between 2000 and 4000ft across the UK. There will be some snowfall at times on hills above 1000ft but as usual mostly over adjacent hills and mountains to coasts to the West and NW. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the South at the weekend. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains generally to the South of the UK over the next 4-7 days with the UK covered by Low pressure. Later next week the flow becomes more variable and generally further North than currently before returning a point just South of the UK in a West to East flow late in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure under control for another week at least with a slack few days of winds to come with chilly air and scattered showers before Low pressure slips ESE across the South towards the weekend into the cold air and giving rise to a messy mix of rain and snow across the South over the weekend. Then next week sees cold and showery weather under Northerly winds give way to fine and frosty weather for a time. Then through the second half of next week milder westerly winds return with rain at times across the North and West with wet weather probably extending to all areas later with Westerly gales at times. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is also very unsettled with chilly and showery weather between now and Friday before Low pressure slips SE across the SW and brings rain and snow into the UK from the SW over the weekend. This then sets up a chilly week next week too with another major Low pressure sliding SE across the heart of the UK with severe gales and heavy rain and snow followed by colder air and wintry showers again midway through the second week. The belated High pressure ridge on this run is much more shallow and short-lived as Low pressure from the NW brings renewed cloud and rain again by the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today indicate High pressure to the SW in 14 days time with winds across the UK likely to be blowing from between West and North. Changeable conditions look most likely with most members indicating varying degrees of how much Low pressure to the North and NE affects the UK with their attendant rain or wintry showers. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows unsettled conditions continuing across the UK well into next week. Low pressure is shown to slide SE across Southern Britain at the weekend and with cold air by then well ensconced across the North of the UK a messy mix of rain and snow will affect the South of the UK in particular over the weekend before all areas become cold and showery early next week ahead of a cold and frosty ridge of High pressure likely by midweek http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate small changes involving the movement further South of the Low pressure area towards the weekend moving ESE across the far SW and France. The complex trough structures currently producing showers close to coasts and those associated with the Low pressure towards the weekend over the South and SW will increasingly give rise to the risk of snowfall in places as the air across the UK becomes slowly colder. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows another week or so of unsettled weather and with temperatures rather lower than of late and with Low pressure taking a more Southerly track close to the South over the weekend rain and increasingly likely snow will affect the South at times before a short spell of NNE winds and wintry showers become the precursor to an equally short frosty and cold period. Then later next week milder and stronger Westerly winds are re-introduced with rain at times returning to many areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the drier phase early next week rather shorter than some of the rest of the output with the cold and unsettled weekend with rain and snow further North than the rest of the models. This phase of weather is then displaced by a weak ridge of High pressure with the chance of frost before wind and rain from off the Atlantic returns along with milder air to all areas later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is probably the most complex of the lot this morning making a real dog's dinner of the prospects for the weekend with a very unclear boundary between mild air to the SW and cold and unstable air across the UK. Low pressure moving ESE on this run at the weekend seems quite shallow with a messy mix of rain and snow over the South for a time before it all slips away East over Europe leaving a 24 hour spell of cold Northerly winds with wintry showers near coasts before frosty fine weather for another 24 hours become displaced by less cold Westerly winds and rain at times gradually pushing in from the West erratically towards the end of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows a similar pattern to that shown yesterday with Low pressure likely to lie near Iceland and a trough down across the UK and NW Europe with High pressure near the Azores. West or NW winds with rain or showers almost everywhere continues to be the main message given by this chart again today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are some hints that following the ridge of High pressure early next week a change to a more Low to the North High to the South pattern develops. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.8 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 88.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.0 pts to 63.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 48.6 pts to ECM's 48.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS At least things are looking a lot less stormy on the charts this morning than were projected some days ago. Nevertheless there is plenty of diversity shown on all the output this morning with wide ranging conditions day to day shown for all areas over the next few weeks with temperatures on the cold side for the next week then returning to a more yo yo pattern again later. In the short term we are settling into a quieter period of weather and quite chilly too with some showers especially near coasts and these could well be wintry over the hills. Then towards the weekend all eyes will be on developments to the West of the UK as Low pressure areas look poised to slip ESE across the SW of the UK on their way down over France. Engaging the cold air across the UK will be watched with interest as this could result in some snowfall across the South but to what point and location is yet to be decided. However, whatever happens the weekend looks cold and raw for many with that chance of cold rain or snow across the South. It doesn't look the start of a long cold spell though because the whole complex shifts away East over Europe next week with just a day or so of cold North winds and wintry showers and night frosts displaced later by a return of a more Atlantic based less cold Westerly pattern with rain or showers at times especially across the North and West. The above is the most likely sequence of weather events over the UK in the next two weeks but I should stress the situation is very complex and subject to change given that the prospects for this weekend and the exact course of Low pressure then is yet to be nailed down giving potential changes to the pattern thereafter. So a typical February mix of weather in the offing this morning with almost something for everyone over the next few weeks though hopefully much of what happens will be rather less dramatic than some of the events the UK has seen in general this season so far. Next Update Wednesday February 10th 2016 from 09:00

Yes I seen and heard the thunder 7 Miles south of you. My webcam was triggered by motion sensor and recorded it beautifully due North of here. Quite random indeed though as I thought things had quietened down now.