Gibby

While we are looking at some potentially very windy and wet weather over the next week or so with some cold incursions for the North at times each model run to me seems to increasingly be pointing towards another mild week coming up next week as winds back more towards the SW and High pressure positions itself in an awful position for supporting cold across the UK i.e. over France and Spain. All models now seem to be leaning this way with even tonight's ECM 10 Day Mean showing higher pressure than this morning's with a move of 100mls or so further North of the Jet Stream. Not as mild as last week but comparatively mild to what we have now.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY OCT 20TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow pushing the ridge currently over Southern Britain away to the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just under 5000ft across the North and just beow 10000ft over the Southwest. The snow cover above 55 deg North in Europe continues to seasonably expand but the progress looks largely halted this week. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still a lot of dry and quiet conditions but with interventions to more unsettled conditions from the NW increasing with time. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will strengthen over coming days especially across the Atlantic. From there it crosses East over the North or at times to the South of the UK in a trough shape for much of the middle and latter end to the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today has a lot more of an Autumnal look to it now as for most of not all of the run the UK weather is governed by Atlantic westerlies and not high pressure. This means a sustained period of Westerly winds across Britain with rain and showers at times along with strong winds. Later in the period this morning's run shows particularly unsettled conditions with gales a risk for all with some colder brighter spells with showers, wintry on hills in the North later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The general theme of the Control Run fairly closely resembles that of the operational although the strong SW flow in Week 2 brings along some very mild air at times across the South and East and less in the way of rain here as well later as High pressure becomes high again just to the South and SE of the UK. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days today supports a greater likelihood of a West or SW flow likely across the UK rather than anything else although 15% of members do suggest High pressure lying across the UK with resultant fine weather in place for many. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a slow shift into unstable and cool Westerlies by the weekend as Low pressure to the North brings troughs across the UK with rain and strong winds over the North in the next few days before winds become light again over the UK with some showers late in the weekend and start to next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning also shows High pressure having declined away and leading us into a Westerly airflow with troughs crossing East at times with rain at times and strong winds too in the North, a process repeated several times over the coming 5 days. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today also shows a lot of unsettled weather over the coming 10 days with a continuation of it's desire to whip up a major storm in a weeks time, crossing the UK with gales and heavy rain followed by a cold Northerly with showers, wintry in the North and in turn a cold ridge with a day or so of cold and bright weather with frost then cloud and rain returning from the West by Day 10 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a decline in conditions with some rain for all on Westerly winds in the next 5 days or so then in a weeks time this model takes the GEM route of an intense storm crossing the UK with gales and heavy rain likely for all clearing to colder, brighter weather with heavy showers and NW'ly gales to close the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning looks unsettled and changeable too this morning as it also highlights a spell of unsettled weather in mostly Westerly breezes with rain at times over the next 5 days or so. Then the pattern becomes complex as Low pressure moving East on more Southerly latitudes in a weeks time as pressure rises to the NW sending heavy rain across the South with a cold and strong NE flow on it's rear edge leading into a cold and breezy end to the period for all with dry weather developing for many Northern areas in an East or SE breeze whereas the chance of rain in the South persists. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night has changed little over the last day or so maintaining the theme of a trough to the NW, High pressure to both the NE and well to the SW with the UK lying under fairly unstable air with rain at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output continues to reflect a more volatile theme to the UK weather, perhaps notably so a week from now. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.4 pts to UKMO at 87.4 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.2 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 37.4 pts to 31.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS the models continue to project a change in the weather. The first effects of this will be from later today as an active warm front moves SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow bringing the first significant rain for many for some while. Following on behind will be a strong Westerly with further troughs clearing SE on Thursday and again at the weekend each bringing a little rain at times. Then through the weekend and more particularly the start of next week some models predict the chance of a major storm system, the first of the season which if crosses the UK as GEM and NAVGEM presict then widespread gales and heavy rain would occur. ECM also shows this system but in a weaker form with heavy rain for the South looking more likely rather than noteworthy gales. Whichever way this goes it looks likely to be followed by a colder spell with showers, wintry in the North or in the case of ECM a cold and raw Easterly flow across the South as pressure builds to the North and NE. Thereafter, things look quite interesting as pressure always looks high to the NE and it could be that the UK becomes a battleground to Atlantic Low pressure systems trying to push East across the UK into Europe with the jury out on whether these track South towards Iberia and France or to the NW affecting the NW with severe gales. We will have to see how this trend pans out in subsequent runs but at least whatever happens this morning's runs do offer some more interesting weather than has been the case this Autumn so far. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif We have a bullseye of storm shown on the NAVGEM 168hr chart this morning which makes it the worst chart of the day which if evolved as shown would produce severe gale or even storm force winds with disruption to travel no doubt along with heavy rain. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2161.gif The best chart today goes to GEM at Day 9 which following an earlier storm shows a cold High crossing the UK with fine but cold but possibly frosty weather likely for a time across the UK. Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Oct 21st 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY OCT 19TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge is moving South over the UK with a freshening Westerly flow developing over the North later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just under 5000ft across the North and just above 8000ft over the South. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to seasonably expand but the progress looks largely halted this week. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still a lot of dry and quiet conditions but with interventions to more unsettled conditions from the NW increasing with time. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The recent split in the Jet Stream at the moment will become overpowered soon by a West to East moving flow across the North of the UK later this week and beyond. Towards the end of the period it looks as though the flow will retreat away back well to the NW of the UK again later. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is largely anticyclonic in regard to Southern Britain though the North does appear to have a spell of windy and very changeable weather for a time later this week as deep Low pressure crosses East just to the North. On the other hand High pressure is shown never to leave the South by much with only the briefest of spells of rain soon after midweek. High pressure then builds back over all of Britain next week with frost and fog issues no doubt before the end of the run shows a large blocking High across Scandinavia with a chilly SE feed across Britain and rain bearing fronts from the Atlantic largely held at bay well to the West and SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The general theme of the Control Run is largely simmilar to the Operational with the added ingredient of a larger swipe across all of Britain of a deep Low pressure crossing and affecting most of the UK towards next weekend with rain and strong winds for all for a time. Then through the second week this run too supports High pressure building back across Britain and then away to the East and NE setting up a similar SE flow to that of the Operational later next week http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days today strongly supports a flow from off the Atlantic across the whole of the UK in 14 days time. There is varying degrees of effect this may have on the South closer to higher pressure there but 15% of ouput goes for a deep Low to the NW and rain and gales for all. Conversely 15% show High pressure close to Northern Scotland with fine and dry conditions for all should that evolve. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a change in weather type this week with a gradual shift to a Westerly flow with a couple of rain bearing fronts crossing East or SE across most parts, one soon after midweek and another next weekend when a for substantial change looks likely countrywide as Low pressure moves in closer to the North, close enough to bring wind and rain at times to most in time for the new week next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning also shows High pressure declining and moving away to the South this week with several troughs in the Westerly flow delivering some rain at times, chiefly over the North but to the South too at times especially by next weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today pulls out all the stops on the rad to a big Autumn storm to start next week. Before this happens it shows a slow decline into windier and more changeable conditions especially in the North with occasional rain and showers in a blustery wind as High pressure declines away to the South and Low pressure areas cross East to the North of Scotland. Then next week a rapidly deepening and vigorous depression is shown to move slowly ESE across the North of the UK with a period of severe gale or even storm force winds across many parts with heavy rain and then showers, becoming wintry in the North as we move through the early days of next week culminating in a chilly and raw Northerly with further showers especially in the East midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM is not available this morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning looks a lot like UKMO this morning which if evolves as shown would mean some rain for all over the next 7 days as Low pressure to the North of the UK and attendant troughs move down across the UK with most of the rain but not all over the North especially at first in the period. Then following an active cold front next weekend with rain for all pressure builds strongly from the NW across the UK in cold air setting up a spell of cold and frosty weather with fog patches possibly freezing in places slow to clear. Then towards the end of the run and later next week pressure looks like ridging towards Scandinavia and following a cold plunge of air over Europe looks like this could be driven West across the UK on a strengthening Easterly flow late next week http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows slack Low pressure across the UK with High pressure still well to the SW and more significantly over Russia with any amount of different options possible across the UK at that time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output supports somewhat less benign weather than has been the case of late as High pressure relinquishes some grip and opens the door possibly to any direction next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 87.5 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.8 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 37.7 pts to 32.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Changes continue to be shown across the models in relation to what pressure pattern we had set up last week. What this means in overall terms of weather for the UK depends on where you live with the North probably seeing the biggest change as the quiet anticyclonic conditions of last week giving way to a stronger Westerly flow with rain at times as fronts pass through. In the South High pressure also releases some grip but takes rather longer to give way to the South far enough to give rise to much in the way of rain down here but it should feel milder here as the cool NE flow backs Westerly this week. However, it's next week which looks quite interesting as there seems growing signals for High pressure to build back across the UK early in the week. The precursor to this could be a deep and in the case of GEM a vigorous Low moving SE over the UK or Europe and giving rise to rain and strong winds or in the case of GEM severe gales and some disruption to travel. Whichever, path this system takes it appears to be dragging a lot of cold air down over the UK behind it and with the rising pressure and subsequent High pressure that follows could result in a very chilly and frosty period with frosts and freezing fog issues by night and possibly by day too for a few. What's more interesting is that ECM today shows the High then ridging towards Scandinavia later next week and with a very cold pool shown over Europe aat that time there is every indication from the Day 10 chart that this could be swept West across Britain in a very chilly Easterly. This signal for High pressure to build back towards Scandinavia later next week is also shared by GFS in their outputs which though less cold than ECM would block attacks from the Atlantic again and add to the dry theme of the Autumn once more. Interesting times are shown in the models this morning and if anyone thinks that we're staring down the barrel of a sustained mild, windy and wet period after the demise of our current High pressure should think again. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1801.gif Not a hard choice for the worst chart of the day today as the 7 day+ chart from GEM indicates a powerful and vigorous depression swinging across the UK with gale or severe gale force winds and heavy rain and possible disruption developing for many early next week. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif The best chart today goes to ECM at day 10 which shows the return of a blocking High across the UK ridging towards Scandinavia and while cold this would certainly block any rain bearing systems from off the Atlantic for a while again. Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Oct 20th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY OCT 18TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains slow moving across the UK for the next day or so before declining slowly South through next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just around 6000ft to 8000ft across the UK. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still a lot of dry and quiet conditions but with interventions to more unsettled conditions at times from the NW. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The split GFS Jet Stream at the moment with the main arm over the Atlantic gradually becomes pushed East across the UK later this week. However, the flow continues to be variable in strength and geared in position to remain to the NW of the UK over all and less strong than is usual for this stage on Autumn. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today has a theme of weather governed by various areas of High pressure close to the UK over the entire run this morning. The current fine period could give way briefly this week to stronger Atlantic westerlies and some rain for a time before High pressure looks likely to build back over the UK by next weekend with some mist and overnight fog and frost. A SE flow then develops with Low pressure to the SW and High to the NE. Most places look like staying dry away from the far SW where a little rain is possible. Then towards the end of the rain winds veer to a light to moderate and mild South or SW flow with a lot of dry weather still this time from High pressure to the South with any rain returning to more NW areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is only similar in as much as High pressure remains close by for much of the two week period but in this run more to the South of the UK keeping rain bearing wind and rain systems most likely affecting the North rather than the South which could stay largely dry after a brief spell of rain midweek. Most areas look like becoming rather milder than currently with a milder SW or west source of wind until the end of the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days today supports the South and East looking best for the weather in two weeks time with mild SW winds and a lot of dry weather in the South and East whereas more Northern and Western areas look most likely to see rain at times from Atlantic rain bearing systems moving NE at times in generally rather mild conditions. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a typical North/South divide in the weather setting up through this week with winds settling Westerly and strong at times in the North with some rain at times too whereas in the South apart from the risk of a little rain soon after midweek and perhaps again next weekend a lot of dry and much milder weather overall looks likely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure slipping South to a point near Northern France later this week with weakening troughs moving SE across the UK at times with a little rain and accompanied by milder SW winds. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today also follows the theme of the rest of South is best as High pressure generally stays close by to the South and East of the UK bathing the UK in a mostly Westerly flow, sometimes strong in the North but lighter in the South in overall rather milder than of late. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows winds switching to a milder West or SW flow with some rain briefly midweek before a North/South split develops with rain then confined mostly to the North whereas the South maintains a lot of dry and benign weather close to High pressure to the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure moving South of the UK and setting up milder Westerly winds this week. It also shows a slow decline in conditions towards some rain at times, especially soon after midweek, more especially in the North with a sceptical trek into more widespread cyclonic conditions in a weeks time before a pressure build over the UK at the end of the 10 day period with a return to overnight frosts and fogs. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW with a Westerly breeze across the UK with no doubt some troughs in the flow bringing rain at times with the emphasis of this mostly falling on the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output continues to support somewhat milder conditions to develop this week as High pressure slips to the South of the UK later and possibly allows some ingress of more unsettled weather towards the North and West in particular. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 87.4 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.6 pts over GFS's 50.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.3 pts to 32.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Changes are afoot in the weather pattern across the UK almost from immediately as the long lasting cool NE flow across the SE is far less pronounced now and will dissolve away entirely over the next day or so. In it's place winds will slowly freshen from the West this week bringing much milder air and also some rain. This will be most pronounced across the North but all areas may see some around the midweek period before High pressure never far away from the South builds back across some if not all areas again next weekend. Thereafter the main theme of conditions look like reverting to a familiar North/South split in the weather across the UK with the most unsettled conditions looking likely across the North but even here some dry and fine spells look possible. The South on the other hand look like maintaining a lot of dry and benign weather conditions which could mean the month could end up remarkably dry for many nationwide. While at times through the period occasional gales are possible in exposed Northern and Western areas the South looks likely to avoid such a risk and with winds everywhere maintaining a West or South of West source temperatures will recover strongly both by day and particularly by night with little risk of frost and significant fogs raising the months CET to more respectable values than might otherwise occurred if we maintained winds away from a Westerly source. So all in all still a very subdued drift through Autumn for many and while some cloud, wind and rain look inevitable at some point for most given that we are approaching the end of October things could be a whole lot worse with still a lot of very acceptable weather conditions for much of the time over the next few weeks especially but not exclusively over the South and SE. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif For the worse chart of the day I have chosen a chart from the ECM Run at day 8 which shows Low pressure across the UK with rain and strong winds for many though it has to be said that it commands little support from other output. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif The best chart today goes to the same model at just two days later than the worst chart period and shows High pressure re-establishing across the UK blocking all attacks from the Atlantic once more and delivering fine and dry weather with overnight mist, fog and maybe frost too. Next update from 09:00 Monday Oct 19th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY OCT 16TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains extended across Scotland from the East with a cold NE flow across the South of Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just around 8000ft across the West with values closer to 5000ft towards parts of the East. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night but perhaps a trend to a gradual change to more unsettled conditions from the NW later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The split GFS Jet Stream at the moment with the main arm up to the NW slowly becomes more dominant next week as it eases back South towards the North of the UK. For the majority of the run thereafter the flow remains variable in both location and strength with a trendd though to still lie towards the North of the UK rather than further South. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure still to the North with a cool NE breeze blowing across the South for a few more days coupled with a lot of cloud and a few showers. Then after the weekend the High pressure slips South towards the South of the UK with less cool feeling weather in little or no wind and fine if still rather cloudy weather with some mist, fog and frost patxhes possible at night next week. The North looks like becoming breezier and milder with some rain as troughs cross over from the West. Then through the second week High pressure which is never far from the South moves away to the East with a SSW flow developing for all with a greater chance of rain at least for a time as troughs edge East over most parts in generally milder conditions for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational in general theme this morning with the relaxation of the NE flow across the South as High pressure migrates down towards Southern England early next week with more unstable but milder Westerly winds across the far North. Then through the second week High pressure slips away to the East and as with the operational Low pressure becomes dominant to the West with mild and moist SSW winds developing for many with rain at times, quite heavy across the North and West but much less if any towards the East. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days still unanimously support Low pressure becoming resident up to the NW of the UK by the end of the second week with varying degrees between members about how much influence across the UK the resultant SW flow affects us with the North and West seeing the main share of rain and wind whereas a lot of members still show a ridge of High pressure close enough to the South and East to ward off much in the way of wind and rain. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today continues to show High pressure gradually relocating to a point to the South or SW of the UK early next week and persisting thereafter. Troughs crossing the North by midweek introduces some rain here with a little rain for the South too shown by Thursday as a weakening cold front cross SE over England and Wales. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure remaining in control over the UK with the focus on rather milder conditions gradually feeding in across the UK as the High pressure slips South and cuts off the chilly NE flow across the South. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today also shows High pressure slipping down to the South of the UK early next week bringing less cool feeling weather in the South as the cool NE breeze subsides. In the North some cloud and rain but milder conditions on a Westerly breeze looks likely before High pressure is shown to build back across all areas for a time with frost and fog issues night and morning. Then towards the end of the run as High pressure migrates to Scandinavia and sets up falling pressure across the UK on a SE breeze with rain on Atlantic fronts moving NE across the UK by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure remaining under control across the UK throughout its 8 day period with the centre shifting towards a point close to Southern England early next week but re-establishing nationwide again by next weekend. Largely fine and dry weather looks likely with variable and often large amounts of cloud, a little rain in the North for a time next week and then areas of mist, fog and frost possible in rather cool conditions later in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure changing it's position over the coming 5 days or so shifting the emphasis of the best weather away from Scotland to Southern Britain and importantly removing the persistent NE flow of late away from the SE. Milder and cloudier Westerly winds look like developing over Scotland with a little rain for a while while the South stays largely fine and bright and less cool than recently. Then towards the end of the run signs of High pressure collapsing away to the SE allows the threat of some rain for all as weak troughs move in from the West though no large scale breakdown is shown even by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW with a Westerly breeze across the UK with no doubt some troughs in the flow bringing rain at times with the emphasis of this mostly falling on the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output continues to support somewhat milder conditions to develop later next week as High pressure slips to the South of the UK later and possibly allows some ingress of more unsettled weather towards the North and West. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 87.4 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.5 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.6 pts to 31.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Not much change in the grand scheme of things within the model runs this morning with the emphasis remaining largely based around High pressure which changes it's position early next week to a point close to Southern England which will have the biggest impact to the South of the UK which will finally lose the cool NE breeze which has afflicted these areas for much of this week to allow conditions to fel much more pleasant by dy at least. In the North changes will also be quite marked as gone will be the fine and largely sunny conditions with cold nights in exchange for milder and cloudier weather with some rain at times as troughs move across from the West at times. Then the models become much less clear on whether High pressure builds back across the UK with fine and settled Autumnal weather for all again or whether Low pressure is allowed to make bigger inroads into the UK from the West in response to a collapse of High pressure to the East. The favourite option would have to be that the Atlantic does win back some ground on recent times but I feel the progress is going to be slow and not particularly full hearted with the West and North probably seeing the most rain while the South and East still look like seeing very little over the next few weeks which if verifies would make October 2015 an almost record breakingly dry month. The one factor which I haven't mentioned is that it looks like things will become rather milder for all as winds turn Westerly next week and maybe Southerly later dragging milder air up from warmer latitudes across all of Britain. So in a nutshell nothing alarmist to report again this morning with the emphasis persisting to be one of dry and benign conditions outweighing any risk of anything particularly wet and windy for anywhere. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=276&mode=0&carte=0 For the worse chart of the day I have chosen a chart from the GFS Control Run at 276hrs which illustrates a deep Low out in the Atlantic sucking up mild and moist winds from the South across the UK with no doubt some heavy rain on troughs concentrated towards the North and West in particular. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif The best chart today goes to NAVGEM at 168hrs which shows High pressure well ensconced across the UK still one week from now with fine and settled weather for all delivering some mist, fog and frost problems at night and in the morning. Next update from 09:00 Sunday Oct 18th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY OCT 15TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains extended across Scotland from the East with a cold NE flow across the South of Britain with troughs remaining close to SE England. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just around 8000ft across Scotland and Ireland while nearer to just under 5000ft across much of England and Wales. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night and only relatively small chances of significant rain more especially in the North and West later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow currently a long way to the NW of the UK where it remains for some while yet before strengthening early next week and beginning to sink further South across the UK later as Low pressure from the North of the UK slips further South. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure to the Northeast with a cool NE flow across the SE. This flow is cut off over the weekend as the High pressure zone slips further South across Britain and away to the South. This opens the door to milder Atlantic Westerly winds and an increasing risk of rain at times. Then through the second week cyclonic and often cold weather prevails with spells of wind, rain and showers and cold enough for snow at times over Northern high ground. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is similar to the operational for the first week but through the second week a pronounced cold Northerly affects the UK for a day or two with rain followed by showers, wintry in the North. then pressure quickkly rises and a frosty cold but dry period looks likely for a time before milder SW winds strengthen and bring rain back rain into the North and West towards the end of the second week. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days seems to have unanimously shifted their output towards a unsettled period of weather by 14 days with Low pressure to the NW affecting the UK with rain at times in milder SW winds. There are varying degrees of extent of this unsettled weather with 5% of members going for a major storm system up to the NW at Day 14 with severe gales and heavy rain in places. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows the belt of High pressure across the North slipping South and removing the cold NE flow across the South over the weekend but increasing a milder Westerly flow across the North. Many areas will remain quite dry with the influence of mist, fog and frost by night transferring to the South by the start of next week http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure remaining in control over the UK with the weak fronts affecting the SE decaying and moving away along with the cool NE flow by the beginning of next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today reflects High pressure remaining in control across the UK for the next 10 days but with some fundamental differences developing. The cool NE flow across the South will dissipate after this weekend as the High pressure belt shifts to Southern Britain while the North and most places in general see rather milder conditions take hold by day, only by day in the South but by night too in the North, all due to Westerly winds and rain bearing fronts affecting the North later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure remaining under control across the UK throughout its 8 day period with the centre shifting towards a point close to Southern England early next week but re-establishing nationwide again by next weekend. Largely fine and dry weather looks likely with variable and often large amounts of cloud, a little rain in the North for a time next week and then areas of mist, fog and frost possible in rather cool conditions later in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure changing it's position over the coming 5 days or so shifting the emphasis of the best weather away from Scotland to Southern Britain and importantly removing the persistent NE flow of late away from the SE. Milder and cloudier Westerly winds look like developing over Scotland with a little rain which does show some signs of sprading to other areas too late next week before a cold Northerly flow looks the precursor to renewed and cold High pressure moving back in again from the West soon after the term of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure declining away to the East with some troughing developing across the UK in winds from a Westerly source. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output continues to support somewhat milder conditions to develop later next week as High pressure slips to the South of the UK later. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 85.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.3 pts over GFS's 50.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.2 pts to 30.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Today's output continues to support signs of change this morning though as I hinted at yesterday it may not be for long and not mean much in the way of rain for some. What we have seen of late is a stalled situation of High pressure to the North and NE of the UK extending a ridge back West over Northern Britain who have seen days now of splendid Autumn weather if with some cold and frosty nights. In the South and SE things have been a little more marginal with cloud and even a few showers at times in a persistent and cool NE wind. Fortunes will switch round next week with the South seeing the best of what should be plenty more fine and settled weather with milder days but still with the risk of mist and fog and a touch of frost at night. The North on the other hand will become breezy and milder generally with a lot of cloud and some occasional rain as fronts increasingly make progress across these areas. Then as we look further out GFS seems to want to set up a more mobile pattern with a couple of cold Northerly incursions, something that is also supported by ECM late in it's run this morning. My feelings are that although I think milder, windier and changeable weather is almost guaranteed to reach the North next week as the Jet Stream strengthens and moves South other areas of England and Wales probably won't see much in the way of rain before pressure rebuilds from the Atlantic later, possibly right across all of the UK with cold and frosty weather returning for many. This is the way I see it but it maybe of course that the Jet Stream's predicted extra strength will keep a much more mobile and possibly milder scenario across the UK such as the GFS Clusters are biased towards today in association with a possible intense Low pressure up to the NW. We will see how things develop over the coming days. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.gif For the worse chart of the day I have chosen GFS at 276hrs which illustrates our current High pressure long gone with Low pressure across the UK with wind, rain and quite chilly weather across all of the UK. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif The best chart today goes to GFS too but at 114hrs out which shows the current High pressure belt well in control across the UK with what should be almost universal fine and dry weather with some mist, fog and frost chances by night but bright, fine and potentially sunny days. Next update from 09:00 Friday Oct 16th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY OCT 14TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains extended across Scotland from the East with a cold NE flow across the South of Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just under 10000ft across Western Ireland while nearer to just under 5000ft across much of England. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night and only relatively small chances of significant rain more especially in the North and West later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow remaining positioned well to the NW of the UK for some while yet before moving gently South on it's West to East axis at the same time as strengthening next week. It then blows quite strongly across the UK and Northern Europe later in the period where it remains for the rest of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather influenced by High pressure to the North and NE for a while yet with a cool, and somewhat showery flow across the SE persisting for a time. Then through next week the High pressure to the North slips down across the UK and end up to the South, switching winds to a milder Westerly flow with a North/South split in the weather developing with rain at times in the North but with dry and fine conditions in gentler Westerly winds across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is almost identical to the operational in the short term though it makes rather less of the North/South divide in conditions from next week, maintaining a UK based High pressure zone across the UK for longer with the eventual removal of it towards Europe late in the run and setting up a mild Southerly flow across the UK with maybe some rain edging into the far West at the end of the period. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days seem to endorse a 85/15 split in favour of Westerly winds flowing across the UK at the 14 day time point with rain at times across the UK especially in the North and West. Only 15% of members this morning show a continuation of a cooler anticyclonic pattern likely in association with High pressure to the NE at that time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows very little change in conditions in the short term under a ridge over Scotland and a cool NE flow across the SE with a few showers at times. Then towards the start of next week the cool NE flow is cut off as the ridge slips South introducing less cold and cloudier Westerly winds across the far North by the early part of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning still show High pressure in control over the North of the UK close to Northern Scotland. In the South a cool NE flow and a complex array of troughs maintain rather cloudy skies at times with some showers and rather limited amounts of bright weather. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today also follows the general theme of shifting the axis of the ridge of High pressure currently over the far North to move further South over the next week to lie to the South of the UK by midweek switching winds to a milder cloudy Westerly then with some rain at times developing across the North by the end of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows High pressure less inclined to move South next week and although the cool NE flow in the SE may become a thing of the past next week most of the UK will lie under a belt of High pressure with sunshine and fine weather persisting with frost and fog night and morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning follows the main theme of the morning being the High pressure belt gradually moving South to lie to the South of the UK by later next week. This means many more days of this cool and anticyclonic weather with a NE flow and showers persisting for some while yet across the East and SE. Then as the High slips South next week the cool NE flow will be cut off and winds will eventually shift to a much milder Westerly with cloud and eventually some rain at times likely across the North later next week although it looks unlikely from today's charts that much of this will reach the South within the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure declining with the chance of more unsettled conditions edging into the West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output is for somewhat milder conditions to develop later as High pressure slips to the South of the UK later next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.1 pts over GFS's 50.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.0 pts to 29.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is a wind of change shown across the output this morning which does show a pattern shift later next week onward. In the meantime it's business as usual as High pressure to the NE and North maintains a ridge across the North and West of the UK with a cool and somewhat showery NE flow across the SE but fine and bright weather elsewhere with mist, fog and frost patches at night. Then as we move into next week the NE flow over the South dissipates as the High pressure ridge over the North slips South. This will probably mean the worst of the fog and any frost problems will transfer to the South for a time with the North becoming milder and cloudier as a Westerly flow develops. Looking further ahead still and it appears the theme is for Westerly winds to become established across the UK meaning milder weather but the price to pay being rain at times developing with time, mostly across the North and West with only a little in the South as High pressure never looks far away from here. From my own perspective I feel that despite quite a lot of cross model support for High pressure to shift South and bring back milder Westerly winds caution should be observed at such a range as High pressure can become quite stubborn to shift now we're entering more Autumnal weather patterns and I think models may shift back towards UK based High pressure rather longer than currently shown. What is a feature of this morning's output again is the lack of anything unpleasant featured for any part of the UK over the next few weeks as our benign and quiet Autumn of 2015 thus far continues. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif For the worse chart of the day I have chosen one which isn't particularly bad which just reflects how benign this Autumn is synoptically. In this chart Low pressure to the NW would bring wind and rain for many but not that much ion the South in an overall relatively mild pattern. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif The best chart today goes to UKMO at day 5 as it shows an extensive ridge lying NE across the UK maintaining fine and settled weather for all at that time point with just the twin perils of frost and fog night and morning the only weather issues nationwide. Next update from 09:00 Thursday Oct 15th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY OCT 13TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains extended across Scotland from the East with a cold NE flow across the South of Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just over 8000ft across the far SW while nearer to 5000ft the further North and East one goes across the UK. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night and only very small chances of rain at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow remaining positioned well to the NW of the UK for a considerable while yet before a slow trend to bring it further South later in the period when it becomes sharply undulating between 50-55 deg North. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather continuing to be influenced by High pressure to the North and then NW with a chilly NE flow across the South and East of the UK in association with Low pressure across Southern Europe. Some showers are possible across the South-east. Then later in the period the High slips further South cutting off the chilly NE flow but opening the door to the NW for a surge of more unsettled and windy weather briefly with an equally chill North or NW flow for a time, especially over the North and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is almost identical to the operational today ending the period back where we started with a ridge across the North of the UK with a cold NE flow across Southernmost Britain following a short period of windy and cold North or NW winds for all with showers, wintry on hills in the North. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days seem to endorse a 65/35 split in favour of something a little more unsettled likely by Day 14 with Low pressure to the North extending influence down across all areas with some wind and rain in a Westerly flow. there is still 35% of members that disagree with this outcome with fine weather from a ridge across the UK persisting. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows very little change in conditions synoptically in the coming week with High pressure remaining close to or over the North or NW while the cool NE or east flow persists across the South perhaps with the odd shower at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning still show High pressure in control through the rest of this week. however, the pattern is not straightforward with fronts biting away at the edges of the ridge delivering occasional cloud and rain or showers to the Northern, Southern and particularly SE fringes of the UK. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows High pressure across the North for another week at least while Southernmost Britain largely maintains a cool NE or East flow and with Low pressure persisting across Southern Europe enough influence from that could give the occasional shower in the extreme South at times. Towards the end of the run High pressure finally slips away to the East opening the door to fronts moving in from the West with some rain at times for many by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today is largely quite similar only differing in as much that High pressure slowly slips South to lie across the heart of the UK in a weeks time cutting off the cool NE flow from the South and delivering countrywide fine and settled weather with frost and fog night and morning likely becoming an issue. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows very slow changes in the next week with the same pattern of quiet and settled weather for many with frost and fog patches night and morning in the North and rather more cloud and a chilly easterly breeze across the South at times with just a few showers. This run then shows High pressure sinking slowly South across the UK later next week with fine and quiet weather in the South with frost and fog patches more likely here while the North slowly becomes breezier and more changeable but milder with the risk of some rain late next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure having moved out into the North Sea but maintaining largely fine and settled weather across the UK at that time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains little evidence to support anything other than fine weather under High pressure continuing across the UK for some considerable while again this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.4 pts over GFS's 50.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.7 pts to 30.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is still sound support for few changes in the weather over the period of most of the forecast output this morning. A large blocking belt of High pressure from Eastern Europe remains positioned over the North of the UK. While there is a lot of fine weather for many due to this the far South remains afflicted by a cold and blustery NE flow in association with lower pressure over Southern Europe. This could give rise to a few showers here at times but help restrict the widespread mist, fog and frost that could be encountered here if winds were lighter. However, the North will see plenty of this as the synoptic pattern remains slow moving. It's not until later next week that signs of a slow move in the High is shown with the popular consensus being for it to drift slowly South across the UK which could bring the worst of any fog and frost issues further South as the cold NE flow finally decays at the same time as pressure falls over the North with an increasing threat of westerly breezes returning with occasional rain late in the period. It should also be mentioned that GFS seems attracted towards delivering a cold NW, North and then NE flow across the UK late in the run which could deliver some snowfall to Northern peaks and moors but all very speculative at such a range. So without any major shift towards a more unsettled and long lasting pattern shift within the next two weeks we can continue to enjoy largely pleasant weather given the time of year while those of us looking for day to day nuances have to keep focused on chasing areas of cloud or the odd shower and the extents of overnight mist, fogs and frosts rather than anything more disruptive to travel. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=312&mode=0&carte=0 For the worse chart of the day I have chosen the 312hrs chart from the GFS Control Run which shows a deep Scandinavian Low pulling very strong and cold NNW winds down over all areas with plenty of showers, wintry on all high ground of the North and an eventual shift back towards better weather but with overnight sharp frosts for many. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=0 The best chart today goes to NAVGEM 1 week from today with High pressure shown locked over the heart of the UK which would deliver a continuation of fine weather for all but with probably much risk of overnight frost and fog patches. Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Oct 14th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY OCT 11TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will remain anchored across the UK from a High pressure area to the east. Troughs will affect the far NW over the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from 6500ft across the North and just over 8000ft aross Southern England. Over Europe snow cover is quite extensive now across NW and Northern Russia. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night and only very small chances of rain at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow becoming established well to the NW of the British Isles over the next 10 days or so before returning South sharply towards the end of the period across the UK or possibly even to the South by the end of the forecast period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather totally influenced by High pressure firstly positioned to the East of the UK and then more intensely to the West from later this week. This will ensure an East or NE flow for most backing Northerly later ensuring rather chilly but dry weather for nearly all apart from a little rain in the NW at first and a shower in the SE early this week. Low pressure is shown to finally breakthrough the High pressure block from the North at the end of the run with chilly and wetter conditions extending to all parts by Day 14. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is almost a replica of the operational run with the added caveat that the breakdown show from the operational run at the end of the two week period is not supported with High pressure remaining anchored across the UK at that time too with fine, settled and often rather cool and potentially cloudy conditions as a result in what will be a sustained period of benign weather conditions overall. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days seem to endorse a 70/30 split in favour of High pressure holding on in some shape or form across or near the UK with just a 30% group supporting anything that would mean much in the way of wind, rain or showers in any meaningful form across the UK especially the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows the only difference from recent output in as much as it does inch Low pressure over Europe rather closer to the SE at times through the week threatening a few showers and quite a lot of cloud at times while the vast majority of the UK sees variable cloud and some sunshine but cool conditions with some frost, fog and frost by night away from the breezier South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning support the slight changes of the risk of showers in the SE in an otherwise High pressure based outlook with fine and benign mid Autumn weather for most with areas of cloud and some weak sunshine mixed in along with patchy frost and fog by night, this mostly in the North. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today also shows a variation of High pressure in control of the weather across the UK for the next 10 days. However as the centre transfers to a point to the West of the UK and pressure remains lower over Europe a chill NE wind persists across the South with the added risk of a shower enhanced later by a cold surge of air from the North so that next weekend and the start of the second week could be noticeably windy and cold across the South with a strong NE wind and showers possible more widely for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today follows the same route of High pressure dominance for all parts as a ridge across the UK is focused to extend from a strong High in the Atlantic later this week maintaining the best conditions for the NW while a chill NE wind over the South is all too persistent with the risk of a shower at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning finalises the set in maintaining High pressure close to the UK for the foreseeable future gradually anchoring to the West of the UK keeping dry and fine weather for most areas in rather chilly conditions overall. Sunshine amounts and the best weather overall will be focused towards the West and NW while the South and SE could see cloud and breeze temper conditions somewhat and late in the period all parts could be seeing the birth of an eventual and very chilly Northerly as High pressure shows signs of changing it's orientation as well as moving NW somewhat towards Greenland at the end of the period opening the door for a cold northerly blast especially for the East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure well in control of the weather across all of the UK most likely centred just to the West of Ireland. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is very good agreement on fine and settled weather maintained across the UK for the entire period with just small scale features affecting the day to day conditions across the surface in an overall very dry outlook. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 87.7 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.1 pts over GFS's 50.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.9 pts to 29.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS If today's output is to be realised then we are looking at a very dry October across the UK as there looks unlikely to be very little if any significant rainfall across the UK for the next couple of weeks at least, a theme shared by all output. It's High pressure that's the culprit with the current ridge lying across the UK from Europe intensifying in response to amid latitude block forming over the eastern Atlantic later this week. Once established these can be notoriously stubborn to shift and this one looks no exception with the Jet Stream held well to the North the only way that any incursion of Low pressure can realistically gain entry to the UK is from the North which is hinted at by ECM at Day 10 and from GFS too but due to the close proximity of the High to the West that looks unlikely to happen at any point soon. Pressure is shown to be relatively lower over SE Europe and there is just enough reason to mention the chance of the odd shower from this in the South and East for a time this week but this looks the exception to the overall dry pattern expected. The three factors which will most certainly change the perception of the fine and dry theme is the amounts of cloud floating around along with the likelihood of frost and fog where skies clear at night and in the South a nagging and cool breeze from the NE. All this is of course only small features in an otherwise settled and quiet period of weather across the UK and in the grand scheme of things maintains our generally gentle and benign drift through Autumn so far this year with a continuation of little chance of gales and troublesome weather of any kind looking likely any time soon. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif For the worse chart of the day I have had to travel right out to 384hrs from GFS and this is the only chart of all that I could find any meaningful excursion into bad weather across the UK as it shows fallen pressure across Britain with the Jet stream having travelled to a point well South of the UK bringing what would be rain and cold conditions across the UK in blustery Westerly winds in a complete pattern change. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif The best chart today goes to UKMO at 144hrs but to be honest there are many more than could of qualified. The reason for choosing this one is not for the overall best conditions at the surface at that particular time but for the reason that from this set-up changes in the overall weather pattern is likely to be a long way off with a large blocking mid latitude High of this nature close to the UK. Next update from 09:00 Monday Oct 12th 2015

Rather busy again this morning I'm afraid so if someone would like to copy and paste from my website that will be fine otherwise here's a link. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY OCT 8TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will lie across the UK over today and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level at just under 5200ft in the far West and NW and close to 8200ft in Eastern England. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night. Perhaps more unsettled and colder later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the southern arm of the currently split flow dissolving over the coming days as the Northern arm strengthens somewhat up to the NW and blows NE to the NW of Scotland. then later in the flow part of the flow dives South across the UK at times as Low pressure to the NE diverts it at times. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather being influenced by High pressure to the East across the UK over the next week as a ridge extends West from it across northern areas with a chilly east flow across the South. Very little if any rain is likely and Week 2 looks pretty good too as High pressure influence transfers to coming from the West of the UK maintaining a ridge across us. Winds then settle to come from the North late in the period with a cold Northerly blast bringing some wintry showers towards the North and East at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run shows much High pressure dominance across the UK throughout the run. This comes in the shape of a ridge lying across the UK for the next week with the Easterly flow across the South just unstable enough for a time to give the risk of a few showers towards the SE. Then in Week 2 High pressure develops right across the UK with much fine and settled weather for all though with the twin hazards of fog and frost almost anywhere likely through Week 2, slow to clear in places http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days has maintained a majority bias towards High pressure lying close to or to the West and SW of the UK with fine weather for many though there are more options this morning with more of an Atlantic based period by that time with some rain at times on a Westerly wind especially over the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure stretching West from an European High pressure, lying across the UK from the East into next week and giving rise to fine and dry weather for many with frost and fog at night in the North but with a chilly Easterly flow maintained across the South making daytime weather feel cool but allowing an avoidance of much in the way of frost and fog here by night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning illustrate domination of a High pressure block to the East and NE maintaining a ridge West across the UK keeping any cloud and rain bearing weather systems well away from most of the UK, well to the West, NW and South. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM has High pressure ridged over the UK from the East over the next week with fine and settled weather for all areas. On this run there is less strength to the Easterly flow in the South as the axis of the ridge is more to the South than some other output. This means the far North could see a little rain especially late in the run when an attack from the North brings cloud and rain and cold weather South to most areas towards Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme of the rest with dry and fine weather developing from today with High pressure slow moving across the North of the UK either in the shape of a ridge or under a cell of High pressure itself with fine and dry weather for all with a keen East breeze in the South and frost and fog night and morning over the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning is broadly similar to the rest of the output until later in the period when a hiatus in the fine weather could develop later next week as a trough bisects High pressure East and West of the UK with some rain for a time with an attack from the North introducing a change in weather type at or soon after the termination of the run for most of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying in slack pressure between High pressure both to the SW and NE and Low pressure to the NW and to a lesser extent to the SE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles but with some rain at times towards the North and West and perhaps a shower or two elsewhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is very good agreement on fine and settled weather for the UK under a ridge for most of not all of next week with any distant changes looking most likely to come from the North somewhen in Week 2. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM tying with UKMO at 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.9 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.8 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts then GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.6 pts over GFS's 50.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.4 pts to 32.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The weather looks like becoming set fair across the UK over the next week or so at least and maybe longer. Any remaining showers left over as a legacy to the recent unsettled period will finally decay by tomorrow with High pressure building across the Uk from the East and delivering bundles of fine and bright weather for all areas. As usual this means sunny spells by day but those same clearer spells by night will likely give rise to plenty of frost and fog patches by night in the North. There looks likely to be slightly different conditions in the South as an Easterly flow looks likely to develop restricting any frost and fog patches to places with good shelter but also making it feel chilly by day in exposure. This general weather pattern looks likely to persists for most if not all of next week before some output, namely GEM, GFS and ECM all point towards the North for what may be a pattern shift away from High pressure to something more unsettled and possibly cold as winds look like they could turn Northerly later. In the meantime we should all be able to enjoy a protracted spell of fine and settled weather with very little in the way of rain, some sunny spells with some frost and fog patches at night, a chilly east wind in the South and perhaps a shift towards something more unsettled and chilly much later in the second week. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif I have chosen to show another GEM 10 Day chart as the worst chart of the day as it highlights my above text summary in bringing Low pressure down from the North in 10 days or so bringing an end to the fine weather as cloud, wind, rain and potentially cold weather moves down across all areas at that time, but will it happen? BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif The best chart today goes to GFS in it's operational run at Day 6 which shows High pressure stretched across the UK and nearby NW Europe with fine and settled Autumn weather continuing for some time from this point for the UK. Next update from 09:00 Friday Oct 8th 2015

For those interested here's today's report link:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY OCT 6TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure areas and troughs will move NNE across the UK both today and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level near or just under 10000ft across the UK. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with a little rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods developing again too especially later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a continuation of the flow to be split to the North and South of the UK for the remainder of the week. The flow becomes weak next week and generally maintains a stronger arm well to the North and a smaller cut off flow near the South of the UK as a small cut off depression lies close to Southern Britain. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather improving from the current unsettled spell as we move towards the end of the week as a ridge of High pressure crosses the UK from the West. The High pressure ridge then is shown to build strongly to the North and East of the UK as the remains of hurricane Joaquin move into the UK from the SW at the weekend, This could bring rain and strong winds across England and Wales from the weekend while Scotland could stay dry before the majority of the remainder of the run sees Low pressure remain close to the South of the UK with further rain at times in an Easterly breeze. Then at the very end of the period a ridge dries things up for most before Low pressure changes the weather again at the end of the period, this time for all with rain and strong winds at times as Low pressure sits across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run shows much less influence from ex hurricane Joaquin as it slips it South into Biscay with an easterly flow across the South the only effects likely from it. High pressure maintains a lot of dry weather across the UK for most of the run with only the far South gradually seeing a little rain at times as Low pressure edges into the South from the South later. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days has a unanimous theme of High pressure likely to lie close to the SW of the UK with varying degrees of influence across the UK mostly supporting a lot of dry and fine weather with any rainfall largely concentrated towards the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure developing over the UK for a time later this week before the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin moves first towards the NW of the UK then down across us by Day 6 gradually turning the weather unsettled with some rain at times for all and with some brisk winds for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning shows High pressure developing to the NE of the UK extending a ridge across the UK towards the end of the week as the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin approaches the Western sea areas at the weekend but holding far enough away to have little impact for the UK on this run. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM also builds High pressure back across the UK from the North-east later this week with some fine and settled weather for many for a time. GEM is less supportive of keeping the ex hurricane at bay as it moves it in across the UK at the weekend with wind and rain for many. The theme then for next week is a slow return to drier conditions to edge down from the North though it takes a long time to reach the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure moving to the South of the UK late this week and over the weekend with a stiffening Easterly breeze as High pressure builds to the North of the UK. This pattern is then maintained well into the start of next week with a lot of dry and chilly weather with any rain only likely in the extreme South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning has the building High pressure later this week winning the day as the ex tropical feature fades into obscurity moving harmlessly to the South and NW of the UK. High pressure then builds across the UK next week before a fall of pressure from the NW threatens some rain and fresher West winds right at the end of the period though rain amounts looks small in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying between High pressure both to the SW and NE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles but with some rain at times towards the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still good agreement now on a largely fine and benign spell of weather developing again across the UK from later this week once the demise and final resting place of ex hurricane Joaquin is established. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM tying with UKMO at 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 96.8pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.6 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts then GFS at 83.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.5 pts over GFS's 51.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.7 pts to 33.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models are still struggling with the track of ex hurricane Joaquín and subsequent effects such movements could have on the weather across the UK come the weekend. In the meantime the current mild and showery weather will move away East tomorrow with dry, bright but cooler weather developing later this week. As all this unfolds pressure will be building from the NE and winds switch towards an Easterly across the South. While the bias is still towards the weather staying dry over the weekend some output does show Joaquin moving into the UK airspace with some rain from it affecting the UK at least for a time. The final coming together of the models should occur over the coming days with the most likely weather next week becoming dry and bright but rather chilly in an Easterly breeze. The North will probably see lighter winds with cold nights with frost and fog patches likely but this all of course hinges on the fact that our ex tropical feature Joaquin does keep out of UK air space. Given the time of year the models could look a whole lot worse and given also that an ex tropical feature is in the mix it looks unlikely that there will be anything significantly bad weather-wise in the coming two weeks. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif The worst and best chart of the day highlight the differences in the 4-6 day range in possibilities of weather across the UK with the worst chart going to the GEM 144hr chart which shows the remains of ex-hurricane Joaquin over Ireland with wind and unsettled rainy weather likely for all. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Contrastingly, and at the same time point ECM shows a stark difference to GEM and UKMO as by that time all trace of ex-hurricane Joaquin has vanished with a belt of High pressure across the UK giving rise to settled and fine weather with chilly air and frost and fog patches at night. Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Oct 7th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY OCT 5TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure areas and troughs will move NNE across the UK both today and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level near or just under 10000ft across the UK. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods developing again too. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow splitting North and South of the UK later this week at the same time as the flow becomes very weak next week and generally well to the North of the UK. It then dips South across the UK late in Week 2 as High pressure lies across the Atlantic. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current change to more unsettled weather generally very short-lived in as much as by Thursday pressure will of rebuilt strongly to the East and NE of the UK. Low pressure to the SW and then South will bring an Easterly flow across the UK and it will probably have a chill to it before High pressure to the North transfers to the West of the UK and sets up our first cold Northerly flow of the season at the end of the run with showers or rain at times and snow over Scottish mountains. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run has some similarities to the Operational Run with High pressure re-establishing across the UK by the end of the week and weekend with fine and dry weather for many. Through Week 2 there also is a fall of pressure to the SE with a strong and cold NE flow too shown with some rain and showers in the South and East to end the period. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days is for High pressure to lie over the Atlantic either to the West or SW with a mix of options under West or NW winds between dry and fine or cool and damp weather. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts? LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure developing over the UK later this week and drifting across to Scandinavia by the weekend. SE winds will increase across the South and West perhaps with some rain with drier weather holding on elsewhere though with a chilly breeze. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning follows the raw data well with pressure rising again after midweek largely responsible to the remains of the ex tropical feature Joaquin moving into the SW approaches at the end of the week which pumps up some warm Southerly winds ahead of it for next weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM also builds High pressure back across the UK from the East by the weekend with fine and dry weather for many although the temperatures of the recent fine spell are unlikely to be replicated as it may well feel chilly especially in the far South and SE where a keen East or NE breeze will blow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM is less supportive of a full settling down of the weather later this week as it brings the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin close to Southern England over next weekend with rain at times across the South with cool and breezy but fine conditions further to the North in association with High pressure to the North and NE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows a similar theme to the rest with High pressure developing first over and then to the East and NE of the UK by next weekend as Low pressure moves east to the South of the UK. The resultant Easterly flow will bring some rain to the far South but much of the UK will be dry and bright but chilly and as winds fall lighter late in the period some overnight mist, fog and frost look possible. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying between High pressure both to the SW and NE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is good agreement now on a largely fine and benign spell of weather developing again across the UK from later this week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.9 pts to UKMO's 96.68pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 86.4 pts then GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.2 pts over GFS's 51.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.2 pts to 34.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There seems a lot of agreement this morning that High pressure will again become the dominant feature of the weather across the UK as we move through the second half of this week and through the weekend and probably beyond. For now though we have a couple of days of potentially quite wet weather as warm and moist humid air moves across the UK with showers or longer periods of potentially thundery rain and brisk winds as well. Soon after midweek fresher air will push the rain away to the East and the rest of the week becomes largely fine and quiet weather-wise as High pressure builds across the UK as well as to the East and NE of the UK. We still have to watch the final movements of ex-hurricane Joaquin as it is generally agreed now that it is looking likely to move to a position to the SW and South of the UK but there is some output which does show it close enough to push some rain into the SW and South of the UK over the weekend. This is by no means a certainty but it is conceivable the models could still have this movement wrong and it could end up affecting more areas or nowhere at all. Then we have to look forward to Week 2 which currently doesn't look too bad with the quieter version of Autumn weather looking more likely than anything particularly stormy or unpleasant so once again this morning once we lose the current wet conditions we look to be likely to enjoy some quiet but not necessarily as warm conditions as the previous fine spell to highlight those Autumn colours more. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif The accolade of the worst chart of the day goes to GFS at T+384hrs with Low pressure to the East and a rasping Northerly flow over the North Sea and the UK with cold weather with wintry showers across the North and East. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif Contrastingly, the best chart of the day today is the GEM 228hr one which highlights another sustained fine spell with a blocking High across the North of the UK with much if not all of the UK fine and dry once more. Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Oct 6th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY OCT 4TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure continues to decline across the UK with troughs of Low pressure moving NE across the UK tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level near 6500ft over NE Scotland and over 11000ft over SW England. Snow levels continue to increase over NE Russia and the usual locations at this time of Autumn. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods for some too. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern and Southern arm of the Jet Stream continuing to flow both North and South of the UK respectively over the next week. Then the flows break up and become ill defined through the second week and blow much lighter than is usual at this time of year. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the week ahead in two different guises with the first half soon becoming unsettled with rain or showers, heavy at times as Low pressure swings NE across the UK in the coming days. pressure then recovers later in the week with a return to fine and quiet weather over the UK before the remains of tropical storm Joaquin stalls just to the West of the UK throwing warm and moist air across the South of the UK with heavy rain in places. then as this crosses the UK through the second week winds swing to a chilly North or NE with cold and steadily improving conditions expected then across all areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational run though the second week sees improvements arrive in the shape of a ridge from the South rather than the NW with fine less chilly weather than the Operational before a drift back towards more unsettled and windier Atlantic driven weather for all is shown by Day 15. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The full GFS Clusters are not available this morning at time of issue. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today looks unsettled for a time early in the week as Low pressure and troughs move NE across the UK. pressure then rises soon after midweek from the South and later East with fine and dry weather for many before cloud and rain edges into SW Britain by the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning follows the raw data well with pressure rising again after midweek largely responsible to the remains of the ex tropical feature Joaquin moving into the SW approaches at the end of the week which pumps up some warm Southerly winds ahead of it for next weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM also shows the unsettled Low pressure based theme of early week short-lived as High pressure gradually regains control of the UK weather stretching down from the NE at the end of the week. SE winds and any unsettled weather will then be restricted to SW Britain towards and towards the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the same theme as the rest with the unsettled weather of early in the week replaced by drier conditions later as pressure builds again from the East and NE. The end of the run features High to the North and Low to the South with Easterly winds and any rain restricted to the far South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning is on the whole not a bad run once the next few days of unsettled and rainy weather moves away as unlike some of the other output it takes the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin harmlessly away to the NW of the UK late this coming week with a ridge of High pressure largely maintaining control across at least the South of the UK with fine and relatively dry weather with any unsettled conditions restrictive in extent. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure to both the NE and SW with a slender ridge likely to be lying across the UK at that time with any rain most likely to the far SE and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models show some inconsistencies still largely revolving around the track of ex-hurricane Joaquin. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.8 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 86.6 pts then GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.7 pts over GFS's 52.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.1 pts to 34.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Since I last reported on the models on Friday morning the situation on the weather across the UK this week has firmed up in detail with the week ahead looking split into two sections. The current last remains of the recent fine spell will end tonight and tomorrow as troughs of Low pressure bring unstable and humid conditions North and East over Britain with some outbreaks of heavy and possibly thundery rain for all over tomorrow and Tuesday and Wednesday. then pressure looks like rising again largely due to the remains of ex-hurricane Joaquin crossing the Atlantic later this week pumping up some warm air from Europe across the UK. There is still some disagreement on the exact track of this feature with ECM highlighting the differences by showing it tracking well to the NW out of harms way to the UK. Most other output keep it further South across the Atlantic but off shore to the West or SW with any direct influence from it restricted to the far South or SW all the time with pressure remaining High over Scandinavia. Then later in the period the pattern remains fairly unclear but there seems nothing particularly alarmist and unpleasant within the output again today that would be deemed as unusual at this time of year and indeed at times and from some output the weather could become quite warm by day at times with winds from a source well South of the UK. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif The accolade of the worst chart of the day goes to GFS at T+288hrs with Low pressure over Southern Britain and NW Europe engaging some cold air from Scandinavia which if evolved would bring not only wet and windy weather but with increasingly low temperatures sufficient to allow some snowfall over the highest ground of the North. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif Contrastingly, the best chart of the day is taken from ECM at Day 10 which this morning shows potential for another fine spell as High pressure from the Azores is shown to be ridging across the UK from the SW with dry and settled conditions as a result with temperatures close to average after the remnants of Low pressure leaks away from both the NW and SE. Next update from 09:00 Monday Oct 5th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY OCT 2ND 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure remains slow moving across the UK but weakening slowly over the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK but amounts in NE Russia, Alaska, Greenland along with the mountains of Iceland is increasing now as one would expect. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern arm of the flow weakening slowly as a new arm approaches the UK from the SW. This arm remains in situ as it continues to approach the UK and weaken and breaks up as it makes it's way into NW Europe. This pattern remains until late in the period when a more straightforward West to East flow across the Atlantic and the UK develops. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weekend being the last days of the current fine spell as Low pressure and troughs move NE across the UK on occasion next week. Winds will also increase markedly from a point between South and west so never very cold. Through Week 2 a continuation of the unsettled theme seems likely with more Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of Scotland and pushing active troughs East over the UK with heavy rain, most prolific in the North and strong winds at times and temperatures near average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational run though the second week commands a more definitive split between North and South with rain and strong winds continuing across the North while High pressure builds up close to the South later with mild SW winds and mostly dry weather for much of the time towards the end of the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show an almost unanimous picture that Low pressure will lie to the NW of the UK with West or SW winds likely across the UK pushing troughs East across most of the UK with rain and strong winds at times. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today looks unsettled next week with two areas of rain crossing NE over the UK on both Monday and Tuesday with more showery conditions for Wednesday with the hint on the 144hr chart of further rain on an active Low pressure waiting in the wings across the Atlantic. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure declining steadily over the weekend with a complete change of weather type from Monday of next week as active Atlantic depressions and fronts spread wind and rain North and East across the UK with showers following in blustery West winds by midweek. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM continues the theme of unsettled conditions too next week with the emphasis on the wettest conditions always focused more towards the North and NW while some longer drier spells are most likely over the South and East of the UK where it is also shown to be quite mild at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM is similar to GEM in many respects with an even greater indication that the South and East could become drier again after the middle of next week as pressure builds over the nearby continent with rain bearing fronts held up to the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning has a very different approach to next weeks weather as it start with a wet and windy period with a couple of periods of rain and strong winds early in the week before drier conditions develop later especially over the East. Pressure then builds across Scandinavia and blocks the progress of all Atlantic wind and rain systems to all but the far SW of the UK by the end of the run with a keen SE breeze for most. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to promote Low pressure to the NW with some influence across most of the UK with rain at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models still show little consistency in the way conditions will unfold once the current High pressure declines and the trough early next week moves into the UK from the SW. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.8 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts then GFS at 84.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.7 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS and ECM are tied at 36.1 pts each. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS We have a few more days of fine and settled weather across the UK before a marked change in the weather occurs at the start of next week. What is less clear is that once that change has occurred how long it will last before a return to better weather takes place and in that resolve none of the models offer any assurance this morning on any one evolution, Taking things step by step fine and bright weather over the weekend with mist and fog at night will remain the familiar pattern before cloud, wind and rain move up from the SW on Monday, a process that looks likely to be repeated on Tuesday before a spell of showers and sunny spells in a blustery WSW wind midweek. It's then that things become much less clear. The majority of output does suggest a shift of emphasis of any further wind and rain more towards the North and West from later next week with some longer drier and at times warmer spells towards the East and SE with GEM and NAVGEM promoting this the most. ECM has a rather different take on things as it sets up a blocking High over Scandinavia warding off any eastward progression of wind and rain from a rather unsettled looking Atlantic. The SW will then become most at risk of seeing some wind and rain from these Low pressure systems while all other areas see a SE wind and dry and bright weather predominating and if this evolves it could feel quite warm again in shelter. So once more this morning though a breakdown in the weather is virtually nailed on early next week the length and extent of it's establishment is still unclear and the East and South and possibly the North too could see a return to some drier conditions later. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GFS today at Day 5 as it shows a small and vigorous Low pressure area crossing England and Wales delivering rain and gales for a time. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif The best chart of the day is taken from ECM at Day 9 which illustrates how High pressure to the NE of the UK can form a strong block to the Atlantic with in this case a lot of fine weather developing again across the UK after a period of more unsettled weather. Next update from 09:00 Sunday Oct 3rd 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY OCT 1ST 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure remains slow moving across the British Isles with the fresh Easterly flow over Southern England decreasing. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK but amounts in NE Russia, Alaska, Greenland along with the mountains of Iceland is increasing now as one would expect. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North for a few more days before it troughs South a long way over the Atlantic and returns NE across the UK next week. It then becomes focused much further South than of late, often across the UK in the association with Low pressure close to the North and NW. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current fine weather deteriorating over the weekend as more cloud develops across the UK. Then through next week a fresh South wind will send warm and moist air North over Britain with troughs edging East slowly. Heavy rain in the West will slowly transfer East over several days opening the door to a more mobile spell of Atlantic West to SW winds and rain at times and temperatures near average or a little below at times across the North later as cooler air feeds down from the NW for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational run with the theme of rain moving East over the UK early next week rather quicker with the theme of rain at times thereafter in a WSW flow and some drier intervals across the South at times. At the end of the period a deep Low pressure moves in across the UK with widespread gales and heavy rain as a result. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a 65/35% split in favour of Low pressure in control across the UK in 14 days time in association with a trough either down over the UK from the NW or under an unstable and blustery WSW flow with rain at times, heaviest across the West and North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today has moved back towards a much more unsettled and windy period as it shows rain and windy weather moving slowly North and East across Southern and Western areas as early as Monday followed by further Low pressure troughs in association with deep Low pressure across the Eastern Atlantic later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure declining slowly over the next 5 days with troughs ganging up over the Eastern Atlantic by Monday spreading more unsettled weather North and East across the UK from next Monday. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM also shows the fine weather moving away by early next week as a small Low moves across the South from the SW with rain for all and opening the door to an unstable but mild SW flow with further troughs delivering rain and showers at times for all but with some lengthy dry spells developing in the SE with higher pressure remaining ensconced across France. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning shows a short decline in conditions across England and Wales early next week as a trough swings NE and delivers rain for all followed by a blustery SSW wind. From then on rain becomes more and more restricted to the far NW again as pressure builds slowly across England and Wales next week in accompaniment of a warm SSW airflow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning has High pressure in it's present form declining at the weekend as a trough of Low pressure moves SW to NE across England and Wales with a spell of rain for all Monday into Tuesday. A ridge of High pressure midweek returns some fine conditions before the next troughs move similarly NE across the UK with some more rain Wednesday and into Thursday. Pressure then builds SW from rising pressure to the North and NE with a battleground scenario developing between troughs to the SW making only slow and erratic progress NE with rain most likely then across the South and West. Temperatures look largely close to average or a little above in the sun shines and in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to promote Low pressure to the NW but has taken further to the NW reducing the effects of the rain at times SW'ly flow more concentrated towards the North and West rather than elsewhere http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models still show little consistency in the way conditions will unfold once the current High pressure declines and the trough early next week moves into the UK from the SW. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.7 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.1 pts to UKMO at 86.9 pts then GFS at 84.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.5 pts over GFS's 53.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS just leads ECM at 36.0 pts to 35.4 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models remain focused on bringing an end to the recent fine and sunny weather as High pressure declines over the weekend and is replaced by a trough moving up from the SW on Monday. What is less clear is how the weather evolves from that point on with the majority show this feature opening the door to a lengthy period of SSW winds and rain at times focused chiefly towards the West and North but by no means exclusively. There is some deviation from this with rain becoming more focused to the NW as pressure builds from the SE ala ECM and NAVGEM. ECM too has it's own version of a non straightforward pattern setting up a build of pressure to the NE later which sets up a blocking pattern which hinders troughs to the SW from making much in the way of progress NE across the UK. GFS also has variability within a general similar theme between it's operational and Control Run focusing on a trend to push the worst of conditions up to the NW while the GFS Control Run shows a major storm system at the end of the period with rain and gales for all. So which one is right? Well I think the pattern will remain unresolved until late this weekend at the earliest when a clearer handle on the progress of more unsettled weather next week should be agreed better between the models. The only constant is that we are unlikely to see the largely cloudless skies of this week next week as cloud will often be a major player, rain or not. Temperatures on the other hand are expected to remain on the higher side of average if any SSW flow next week develops with night's especially being much warmer. However, with the exception of the deep Low shown by the GFS Control Run in the far reaches of the run there is again nothing too alarmist to worry about in the weather anywhere across the UK over the next 10-14 days with just modest mid Autumn conditions for the most part. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0 The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GFS Control Run at 360hrs as it shows a major storm system across NW Britain with heavy rain and gales for all. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm241.gif The best chart of the day illustrates how synoptics deteriorate over the coming period as the best chart I can fine this morning belongs to the ECM 24 hr chart with the current large High pressure area holding on across the UK continuing to ward off any rain bearing attacks from the Atlantic or elsewhere with warm uppers aloft and good temperatures at the surface by day. Next update from 09:00 Friday Oct 2nd 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 30TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the North and NE of the UK remains in control of the weather across the UK today and tomorrow and beyond. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North of the UK for the time being before it sinks a long way South over the Atlantic and then returns NNE across Northern and Western Britain next week. Then later in the period it becomes very variable and broken with no definitive pattern shown. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today has it's main message being a long delay in breaking down the current fine weather from Central and South-Eastern areas next week. Instead these areas can expect fine weather persisting for much of next week and it will feel warm in the gentle SSW winds. There will be rain at times in the North and West as Low pressure over the Atlantic edges in. It's not until week 2 when the Atlantic breaks through to all areas bringing some rain for all just for a time followed by a large drop in temperatures with a strong ENE flow over the South and a large and chilly High pressure area developing close to the North where frost and fog would become widespread at the end of the period http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is similar in structure with a breakdown across the West from Monday. This run also holds fine weather over the East until later next week when a trough crosses East through all areas with some rain. Temperatures then become cooler for all with the North and East still at risk of rain at times before High pressure nudges in from the West to lower temperatures to below average late in the period with some showery rain in a chilly NNE breeze to the SE while all other areas see dry and chilly weather with frost at night and also some mist and fog patches. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a 65/35% split in favour of a High pressure based situation likely for the UK in 14 days. General consensus places it either to the SW or West extending a ridge across the UK. The 35% showing unsettled weather has Low pressure to the NW and West driving things with SW winds and rain at times for most. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today has also backtracked somewhat in the extent of any loss of pressure across the UK resulting in rainfall as any rain bearing systems look like only affecting the far West and NW early next week while the South and East while more cloudy than of late stays mostly dry and quite mild. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure declining slowly over the next 5 days but maintaining a ridge for the most parts across the UK sustaining fine and dry weather for the bulk of the UK with some warm sunshine. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a much more volatile pattern commencing from very early next week. While High pressure and fine weather lasts until then the weather deteriorates into a wet and windy pattern next week as Low pressure makes far more progress across UK air space next week. Some very windy weather is shown at times too with near average temperatures. Some brighter intervals are shown for a time late in the run before renewed Low pressure reaches the SW at Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning is a sort of halfway house between GEM and GFS with the West and NW certainly seeing rain at times next week, some heavy while the East and SE sees only small amounts of rain and longer dry and bright periods when it will feel quite warm in the SSW breeze http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning has the High pressure declining from this weekend with fine weather holding on for most through the weekend before troughs swing NE across all areas with some rain for a time early next week. Following a cold front East midweek pressure rises to the South and more especially the East late next week warding off Low pressure out into the Atlantic with warm South or SE winds and dry weather affecting most of the UK to end the period http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to promote Low pressure to the NW and a moist, mild and in places unstable SW airflow across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have backtracked markedly today limiting the extent and depth of any unsettled weather across the UK and certainly the East. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.7 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days UKMO ties with ECM at 86.9 pts then GFS at 84.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.8 pts over GFS's 54.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM just leads GFS at 35.2 pts to 34.6 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There seems to of been a major swing backwards from the models over the last 24 hours towards less of a breakdown likely next week across the UK especially if you live in the East and SE. There is still two or three days of the current pattern remaining with plenty of warm sunshine by day and cool misty nights and the breezy Easterly across the South should fade away from tomorrow on. Over the weekend the noticeable difference is likely to be the amounts of cloud which will increase for all and even a shower is possible in the SE. Then next week shows troughs ganging up to the West but the progress east into the UK is unsure and varied model to model. GEM is the most extreme with all areas becoming very unsettled, wet and windy but that is the extreme with much more of the output limiting the eastern extent of such troughs to the west and NW with other areas seeing a lot of fine and warm weather in balmy SSW winds. ECM does seem to show rain for all early next week albeit briefly with the same warm Southerly flow occurring later in the period of it's output. So overall things don't look as bad as they did a few days ago and this seems to be caused by the Jet stream which is now shown to make less progress South than was shown a while back and in addition pressure is shown to be lower over the Arctic and Greenland region next week which keeps Low pressure further to the North and West than would otherwise be. So in Summary the weather though turning a little more changeable next week with a little rain at times away from the far West and NW amounts shouldn't be bothersome with plenty of fine weather in between. Temperatures should see October bucking the trend of recent months as it looks like starting rather warmer then average especially by night in the SSW flow expected and while there are some colder options shown later in the period notably from the GFS camp there is nothing to suggest any widespread frosts, fogs or gales as yet this season. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.gif The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GEM Model with it's 168hr chart showing a deep couple of Low pressure areas over the North of the UK with widespread gales and spells of heavy rain for all. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm241.gif The best chart of the day comes as no surprise as being one close to the present as that is the only time when widespread fine weather looks likely from today's output. I have selected the ECM 24hr chart which shows High pressure orientated nicely across the UK blocking all attacks from Low pressure at that time from affecting the UK. Next update from 09:00 Thursday Oct 1st 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY SEP 29TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the North and NE of the UK will persist with an Easterly flow over the far South and a cloudier SW flow over the far NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North of the UK for the time being before it realigns much further South for a time next week. It then becomes broken and disorganized again later in week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure across Northern Britain for the rest of this week before it declines over the weekend in response to a slowly increasing South or SW flow. Low pressure then brings a period of more unsettled conditions with some rain next week before High pressure edges back onto the scene towards the end of the period, first to the South and West and then elsewhere too as it becomes rather cold under North or NE breezes. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is less supportive of a meaningful return to High pressure once the breakdown occurs this coming weekend. Instead it shows a more unstable Atlantic driven pattern with Low pressure in close attendance to the UK with it's positioning over the UK next week and then to the North with strong winds and rain at times for all late in the period http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a real muddly set of options ranging from a Scandinavian anticyclone to Low pressure close to the South to a basic majority of 40% leaning towards a more mobile Atlantic driven pattern in response to Low pressure to the NW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure declining at the weekend but holding on longer over the North and East. Rain looks like reaching parts of the South and West by the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure close to or over the UK up to the last day of the 5 day period when a disturbance from France brings a risk of showers by the end of the weekend to Southernmost Britain. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure breaking down at the weekend as it dissolves away East. With pressure falling the risk of rain increases markedly from the beginning of next week, first in the South and West and quickly for all as a deep Low crossing the UK is shown to bring a spell of very wet and windy weather with gales next week. Thereafter a North/South split in the weather is highlighted with the South seeing the best of any dry weather while rain at times continues across the North in a standard Autumn Westerly airflow to end the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows falling pressure at the weekend and deep Low pressure developing over the Atlantic. This supports fairly mild but very moist Southerly winds as we move into next week with rain, heavy at times in the West but less so in the East where dry weather may hang on rather longer. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning also shows the fall of pressure next weekend leading into a spell of more unsettled conditions especially across the North and West. It looks like deep Low pressure over the Atlantic to start next week will be maintained to the NW of the UK thereafter with SW winds strong at times and spells of rain or showers at times for all with some drier interludes too especially in the SE where it may feel quite mild at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night illustrates a swing towards more unsettled weather with SW winds and rain at times on Day 10 in association with Low pressure up to the NW of Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have maintained their trend towards more unsettled conditions developing across the UK from the end of next weekend as all models continue to support a fall of pressure. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.7 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days UKMO leads ECM at 86.9 pts to 86.7 pts then GFS at 84.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.4 pts over GFS's 54.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM just leads GFS at 35.0 pts to 34.9 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The weather still looks set to deteriorate across the British Isles, for a few at the weekend and more generally from early next week. The large Autumn anticyclone that will of lasted a week or so will begin to decline at the weekend as pressure is put upon it from both the South and West and some showery rain may reach the South at some point over the weekend which will be joined from the West by more substantial troughs and associated rains early next week. Then the methodology of how the more unsettled pattern develops is less clear cut than could be with a desire today to push the wettest conditions up towards the North and West later next week while the South and East might not see to much rain. This is entirely dependant on the Jet stream flow moving back North somewhat later which GFS hints at this morning along with the latter stages of GEM and ECM also hinting at this. Whatever happens there will be a lot of moist air around with winds from a SW quarter sucking up a lot of moisture so rainfall in the North and West at least could become quite copious. GEM also shows a major active storm system for a time next week which is fortunately in isolation at the moment but certainly would give the UK it's first widespread Autumn gales of the season. So on balance what we have this morning is slightly less focused on rain and wind than the models were showing yesterday morning and while most places look like reverting back to somewhat more unsettled conditions it maybe that the East and parts of the South won't see too much rain but in the west and NW quite a lot could occur especially over higher ground. Finally with winds looking like settling South or SW'ly from early next week temperatures should hold up reasonably well and chilly nights should generally become less significant than of late. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1921.gif The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GEM Model with it's 192hr chart showing a deep Low across the UK with widespread gales and spells of heavy rain for all. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm481.gif The best chart of the day comes as no surprise as being one close to the present as that is the only time when widespread fine weather looks likely from today's output. I have selected the ECM 48hr chart which shows High pressure orientated nicely across the UK blocking all attacks from Low pressure at that time from affecting the UK. Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 30th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY SEP 28TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure area will continue to dominate the weather across the UK through the period as it drifts gradually to the NE of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North of the UK for the first week of this morning's forecast period. It then troughs South just to the West of the UK in a week or so time which opens the door for a strengthening flow to move East over the Atlantic to push the flow East on a much more Southerly course again across the UK in the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure across Northern Britain for all of the coming week with fine and settled weather for all areas as a result with variable cloud cover. Then towards the end of next weekend pressure falls steadily and the second week comparatively becomes windy and unsettled with rain and showers developing for all as deep Low pressure to the North of the UK pushes rain bearing troughs East across the UK with temperatures near average or a little below at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is quite supportive of the operational this morning, not just for the first week as yesterday but for the second week 2 with a much more mobile weather pattern developing across the UK from next weekend as pressure falls and a strong Westerly airflow with rain at times develops and lasts throughout the rest of the period. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have swung more towards a return to unsettled and windy weather again especially over the North and West of the UK for two weeks time with a much smaller group of members supporting a ridge holding on across the South. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today also supports a fall in pressure next weekend as this weeks High pressure and fine weather finally slips away to the ESE next weekend. While it will stay dry through the forecast period by Day 6 (Sunday) a slowly freshening Southerly breeze will show troughs edging into Western Britain from off the Atlantic http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure close to or over the UK up to and including Day 5 with fine and settled weather for the UK with a stiff Easterly breeze across the far South at times. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a slightly slower transgression towards more unsettled weather leaving it until early next week before troughs edge into the UK from the West and leading to an unsettled spell later next week with wind and rain at times for all. This of course all follows this weeks fine and settled weather for the whole UK bar the very far North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also supports falling pressure next weekend but from a slightly different source being the NW with an increasing SW breeze and some rain moving slowly SE across the UK following what will of been a week of fine and settled conditions under High pressure. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning also follows the deteriorating course of weather beginning from next weekend. In the meantime fine and settled weather prevails as High pressure remains locked over or near the UK. then at the weekend it declines to the east and a SSW flow develops with Low pressure developing to the west and moving into the UK later as quite a deep feature completely transforming the weather to quite wet and windy conditions for all by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night illustrates a swing towards more unsettled weather with SW winds and rain at times by Dy 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have strengthened their trend towards more unsettled conditions developing across the UK from the end of next weekend as all models support a fall of pressure. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is tied with UKMO at 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO at 86.7 pts to 86.4 pts then GFS at 84.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.3 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.4 pts to 33.9 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS It appears finally that we have a lot of agreement on when and how the current fine and settled weather will end. In the meantime we have another 5-6 days of rock solid High pressure based weather with the centre often covering the UK and ensuring a lot of fine and dry weather with variable cloud and sunny spells by day but still with chilly nights with mist and fog and a touch of frost in the less breezy North. Then it's at the weekend when pressure looks to fall and while the weekend itself looks like staying dry at the start of next week fronts finally make there move into the UK from the West or SW. Conditions then look likely to deteriorate significantly next week with rain and showers in abundance and winds becoming strong at times too as Low pressure areas make inroads across or close to the UK. Temperatures will naturally decline in the wind and rain and even when it's brighter and more showery it will feel cool in a blustery breeze from a West or NW source. It should be noted that while there is strong agreement on the weather turning unsettled next week there is plenty of disharmony on the details of this at the moment between the models so expect a continuation of further shifts of emphasis on speed and extent of change in subsequent output but with a Jet flow which looks like ratcheting up a few gears next week and on a much more Southerly track than this week there is a fair chance of the breakdown coming to pass I'm afraid. So lets enjoy the next 5-6 days as by this time next week it looks like Autumn will be taking on a more usual guise of wind and rain rather than fine and settled. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM at 10 Days offers us the worst chart of the day with a deep Low pressure belt stretching from the UK and to the North with another centre mid Atlantic maintaining unsettled and often wet and cool conditions looking like lasting some while as any build of pressure looks hard to acquire from the pressure distribution as shown. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif The best chart of the day unsurprisingly comes from this week and today's offering is the 4 day chart from ECM which shows High pressure centred right across the UK with fine and settled weather at that time for all areas with light winds and no chance of rain. Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 29th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY SEP 27TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure area will continue to dominate the weather across the UK through the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine well into October. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North of the UK for the reliable future with a return slowly South later towards Northern Britain as it links with a somewhat less pronounced Southern arm at the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure across Northern Britain for all of the coming week while the South sees an increasing Easterly flow with perhaps a few showers come next weekend. warm days and cool misty night will last throughout the week in the North. Then pressure falls across all of the UK with more changeable and often cool weather in the second week with some rain at times especially over the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows a similar route in the next week as the operational with a fine week to come as High pressure remains positioned close to or over the North of the UK. by next weekend some showers look like breaking out over the South ahead of a more changeable second week as a gradual shift to deep Low pressure close to the North brings the risk of gales and heavy rain at times especially in the North while the best of any drier spells look likely further to the South and East. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning indicate a largely favourable position of a NW/SE split in the weather in two weeks time with an almost 90% chance of a ridge lying over or close to the South of the UK with a more unsettled and changeable WSW flow more likely across the North and West. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today is again rock solid in promoting High pressure persisting across the UK throughout this coming week, lying far enough South to prevent too much incursion from a strong East flow in the South and totally eliminating any risk of showers there too later in the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a blocking High to the East with a ridge stretching across the UK throughout this week warding off all Atlantic fronts well to the West and NW. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning also shows High pressure over the North maintaining a dry and fine week but with the risk of showers in the South late in the week as an easterly flow develops, fresh at times in the extreme South. Then through next weekend and the start of the second week a more general fall of pressure could bring more changeable conditions for all but with rainfall amounts likely to be small and restrictive in nature and most likely over the North and NE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning has High pressure dominant across the North of the UK over the next week with an increasing Easterly flow across the South through the week. It should stay largely dry though with just a risk of more cloud and a few showers brushing the South at times late in the week and again late next weekend towards the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning follows the course of much of the output today in ensuring a week at least of fine and settled weatehr especially across the North as High pressure remains anchored there. In the South a nagging East wind looks likely at times and while it should stay largely dry a few showers are possible for a time later in the week. By the end of next weekend signs of a more general pressure fall across the UK develops with the run ending with a deep Atlantic Low knocking on the door of the West with rain bearing fronts moving NE across the UK on warm and moist SSW winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night is gradually changing to somewhat more changeable pattern with a trough of Low pressure possible close to the West by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas but with a more definitive move to more changeable weather being shown now through the second week although how this develops is unclear at the moment. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is tied with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6pts. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO at 86.6 pts to 86.3 pts then GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.4 pts over GFS's 52.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.8 pts to 33.2 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Another good set of output this morning if it's fine weather your after as High pressure without exception from any model is scheduled to block any attack from Low pressure over the next 7 days. the only fly in the ointment is how much influence an increasing East wind across Southern England has on masking daytime warmth and setting off any showers late in the week which is just about possible though looking unlikely from a UKMO point of view. Night's will remain chilly and while the South may escape much in the way of mist and fog due to the increasing breeze there the North looks likely to see quite a bit at night along with a continuation of cool temperatures and patchy frosts. Then as we look further ahead into week 2 there is some signs of change as it looks likely that Low pressure in one shape or another will feature rather more although how and to what extent this develops is still largely unclear. The general theme would probably see the North and West become more unsettled while the SE remains the most likely area to stay drier for longer although the ECM 10 day chart would ensure wind and rain for all. There remains a hint of cold cyclonic winds from the North in week 2 by GFS though the clusters are less supportive of this. So with all this speculative talk of a phantom breakdown as of yet we should be enjoying the here and now over the next 7 days as a lot of fine and very pleasant weather looks like being shared for all through that time and while that goes on the path may become clearer in what direction the weather will take thereafter. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif A nasty little Low to the North of Scotland at day 9 holds the mantle for the worse chart of the day as it would fire cool and very windy weather to the North and East with rain and cold showers rattling through in the very strong breeze. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif Once again the best chart of the day has to be from UKMO at day 5 which illustrates a persistent area of High pressure locked solidly across the heart of the UK ensuring all areas continue to enjoy a sustained period of fine and settled weather for several more days at least beyond that point. Next update from 09:00 Monday Sep 28th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY SEP 26TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An anticyclone will continue to build across the UK today and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine well into October. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow likely to remain well to the NW of the UK over the coming week or so where it blows NE across Iceland quite strongly. Later in the period the flow turns South across the UK in association of a trough developing near the United Kingdom. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure building across the UK currently and also across Northern Europe early next week. Fine and settled weather will reside for all. Through next week pressure falls over Southern Europe and an Easterly flow develops across the South. This fall in pressure affects the South of the UK in the risk of showers later next week. Then as pressure falls more significantly for all areas the High dissolves away and relocates to the NW of the UK allowing a surge of very cool and unsettled weather to move down from the North with the risk of some early snowfall for the Scottish mountains at times and some air frost at night where winds fall light and skies clear. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows a similar route in the next week with the South having a strong and gusty period of East winds late next week with some showery rain. This run departs from the Operational's route in Week 2 with somewhat less influence of a change to widely unsettled weather with some fine and dry if cool weather still around especially for the North where frosts at night would be prevalent while the South remain at risk from occasional showery rain as Low pressure flirts with Southern Britain at times. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning continue to show quite a lot of variability at the 14 day mark suggesting that the path is quite unclear in the longer term again today. There is a range of options that show High pressure remaining in control across Central and Southern areas with only the North seeing Atlantic's influence and rain while other members show a cocktail of synoptic's some good, some bad with a 15% group suggesting a Northerly similar to the Operational run. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure anchored over the UK for much of next week maintaining fine and settled weather UK wide with mist and fogs at night with touches of frost too but much compensatory warm sunny spells for most in the afternoon's. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning support the raw data well maintaining a strong ridge across the UK for most of next week with fine and settled weather as a result. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning is again largely supportive of the main of other model output in that High pressure remains in control for much of the period, moving first to the NE and then back West across the UK and eventually out into the Atlantic. After a stiff breeze in the South later next week and the risk of a shower the weather turns dry again for most towards the end of the period as a slack and chilly Northerly flow under a ridge keeps rain bearing systems away from the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning has High pressure dominant across the UK over the next week with only a suggestion at the very end of the period covering next weekend that a few showers could be approaching the SE from Europe as the High pulls back a little out into the North Atlantic. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning completes the set and shows High pressure close to or over the UK from now until the end of the period. The centre does shuffle around somewhat with a period of fresh and gusty East winds over the far South next week but only the risk of a few isolated showers in the extreme South for a time. This run attempts a retrogression of the High to the West of the UK through the latter half of next week but fails in this with the end of the period reflecting High pressure still strongly ensconced over Scotland and the North Sea with fine and dry weather for all with misty and cold nights for many but potentially bright and warm afternoons. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a typical open pattern shown where there is obviously quite a split in the individual member's output meaning not too much can be read into this chart's showing today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite unclear in nature. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is ahead of UKMO at 96.5 pts to 96.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6pts. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO at 86.4 pts to 86.3 pts then GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.2 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Overall there remains little change in the output this morning particularly in the short to medium term. High pressure is going to remain the dominant role player over the UK for a considerable time to come as the centre crosses the UK and away to the East and NE before reasserting itself near northern Britain late next week. The only caveat to the overall fine, settled and often sunny weather by day and cool misty conditions overnight is the increase of wind likely across Southern England later next week which could give a shower or two for a time but it's only GFS and GEM who show his risk to be anything of significance while the Euro's fight shy of this outcome and maintain dry and fine weather for all. Then looking further out into the second week we see GFS do a complete retrogression of the High pressure area away to the NW of the UK scenario within it's operational run which has been hinted at from quite a bit of the output at times of late. In this case it would feed very cool and unsettled weather down across the UK later in the second week with even some snow for the Scottish hills and mountains and of course frosts at night. However, this is unlikely to verify as cross model support within it's own members amounts to only 15% and is not supported either by ECM or only limply by GEM. So we are still looking like a week to 10 days and maybe more of fine and settled weather across the UK when rainfall amounts will be very small or non existent and while there will no doubt be some days of stubborn mist and low cloud to push out the away all parts should see a lot of daytime sunshine, quite warm in the afternoons and a continuation of chilly nights. Any chance of a significant change to wet and windy weather within the next two weeks this morning continues to look quite small within the output on offer today. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif An unsavoury chart as the worst chart of the day today comes from the GFS Operational run at T+336hrs with a deep Low across Southern Britain having moved down from well Northern latitudes and delivering very cool, windy and often wet weather for all as a result. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif The best chart of the day has to be the UKMO 6 day chart as it illustrates how well established our currently developing anticyclone looks likely to be showing a centre across the UK next Friday with the continuing theme of fine and settled conditions for the whole UK with mist and fogs at night and perfect Autumn conditions for the UK as a whole, likely to last onward from this chart for several more days at least. Next update from 09:00 Monday Sep 28th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY SEP 25TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure will continue to rise across the UK today and tomorrow with an anticyclone developing over Southern Britain with a weak warm front affecting the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow likely to remain well to the NW of the UK over the coming week or so where it blows NE across Iceland quite strongly. Later in the period the flow becomes disjointed and un-clear in location as pressure areas become more complex. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to run with High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East and NE over the next week. This eventually leads to a freshening Easterly flow across the South of the UK with increased stability as well and likely to produce showery rain at times to break out across the South later next week. This is then the forerunner of a more cyclonic spell of weather with increasing amounts of rain and showers for all areas but more pronounced across Southern parts than elsewhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows a similar pattern with 4-5 days of quiet settled weather which persists longer in the North while Southern areas see a pool of more unstable air move NW late next week with some showers. This then culminates in more changeable weather for all under slack pressure which later evolves into a chilly cyclonic Northerly as Low pressure slips South or SE down the North Sea with rising pressure again in it's wake. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning continue to show quite mixed messages but there is a bias towards High pressure lying close to the UK in one shape or form with a 80%/20% favour of this over anything more unsettled. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure close to the UK over the next 6 days gradually transferring East or NE across us over the coming days and then back west towards Scotland later next week with fine weather for all areas looking likely but with a nagging Easterly breeze developing in the South from early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure in control of the UK weather for the duration of it's run parked just to the East or NE with a strong ridge across the UK with fine and settled weather for most if not all of the UK as a result. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure dominating throughout as it first sets up shop to the east or NE over the coming days before moving back West to Scotland early next week. Then over the period leading up to next weekend the High slips South to Southern England maintaining fine and settled conditions here while the North sees a West or SW flow developing with increasing cloud and eventually some rain in places. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows High pressure ridging across the UK over the coming days and then persisting in one shape or another throughout next week maintaining a lot of dry and fine weather with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning completes the set and shows High pressure close to or over the UK from now until the end of next week at least. A period of blustery east winds may affect the South for a time next week but it should stay largely dry. Later in the run and most likely next weekend pressure is shown to fall and low pressure troughs over the Atlantic look like making their move NE into the UK with a freshening SE breeze. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too showed High pressure having migrated slightly West of the UK maintaining mostly fine weather for many but perhaps introducing the risk of cloud and rain in the North as weak troughs round the High moving SE across Scotland. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite unclear in nature. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6pts. At 5 days ECM and UKMO lead at 86.3 pts then GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.9 pts to 33.6 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS High pressure is still very much the commanding force affecting the UK weather over the coming two weeks. Almost without exception High pressure is shown to build strongly across the UK in the coming day or two before settling down to the NE of the UK but maintaining a strong ridge back across Britain. The only fly in the ointment is the risk of cloud and rain in the extreme NW in the next few days and also the faint suggestion that still exists this morning that a freshening Easterly flow across the South next week could have enough instability within it to promote a few showers, though this looks less likely from this morning's output than existed yesterday. What it will have the effect of is to reduce the risk of overnight fog and touches of frost that may affect the North next week under the axis of the ridge. All areas will see a lot of fine and dry conditions and there should be plenty of warm sunshine especially in the afternoons and in the West of the UK. then looking forward there is still mixed messages on whether the HIgh maintains it's grip out to the end of the second week too or whether it declines into more unsettled and cyclonic conditions hinted at from both GFS and latterly ECM. It all looks a little uncertain at the moment so I will not enlarge on it this morning and just summarise that the UK looks like settling into a sustained period of fine and settled weather with day to day changes restricted to just varying amounts of cloud and wind which would also affect amounts of overnight fog and frost that is possible with all places having a good chance of some warm sunshine each afternoon. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=336&mode=0&carte=0 Unlikely to verify as shown but my eye was drawn to this chart from the GFS Control Run as the worse chart of the day as this would dip the UK deep into Autumn with a cold and blustery North and NW wind with below average temperatures and rain or showers for much of the UK. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.gif I like this chart as it's a week away and should follow what would of already been a sustained spell of fine and settled High pressure based conditions which look like being maintained for a considerable time thereafter if that chart evolves as shown. Next update from 09:00 Saturday Sep 26th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 24TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will clear SE England this morning followed by a showery Westerly flow weakening later today and tonight as High pressure builds from the South and SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow migrating to the NW of the UK over the next 24-48hrs as pressure builds across the UK from the South or SW. It persists to the NW for a good week or so before breaking up into a more discreet pattern through the second week but still staying largely to the NW of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show High pressure building strongly across the UK in the next few days and then on into Northern Europe. Once there it holds a ridge back across the UK for a while maintaining fine and settled weather. However, an easterly flow is shown to develop across the South later next week with a fall of pressure from the SE and South with some showery rain breaking out. The rest of the run is a little more changeable but pressure recovers somewhat again later with a lot of fine weather still around in 14 days time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar to it's operational brother today with fine and dry conditions dominant through the period but with a period mid run when High pressure relaxes away somewhat for a time to allow some occasional showery rain to affect the UK in slack winds for a time before we end up back where we started with High pressure reasserting itself across the UK. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show rather less emphasis on Low pressure at Day 14 with the most likely scenario of Low pressure to the NW and High to the South maintaining a weak Westerly bias with rain at times most likely towards the North and NW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving across the UK over the weekend and then over towards northern Germany while maintaining a ridge back across the UK maintaining fine and dry weather for all away from the far NW until midweek at least. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning illustrate the build of High pressue well with fine and settled conditions developing across the UK from tomorrow and lasting through to the end of the period as the High slowly migrates to the east next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows the same High pressure area crossing the UK and away into Northern Europe next week maintaining a ridge back West across northern areas while an Easterly flow developing across Southern Britain with slowly falling pressure later, sufficient enough to support the development of showers later in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning has High pressure straddled across the UK all the way today with the main centre moving across into Europe maintaining a strong ridge back West over Northern Britain and the Eastern Atlantic later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning has backed off somewhat from it's retrogression pattern of yesterday maintaining High pressure close to the UK throughout the run today. It drifts off to the east early next week before reasserting itself close to northern Britain late in the run. All this just means a maintained pattern of fine and settled weather for all of the UK with rain if any at all restricted to the far ends of the UK both NW and SE very briefly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure stretched across the UK with almost universal support for fine and dry early Autumn weather with fine warm days and cool misty nights. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite restrictive in nature. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM and UKMO lead at 86.3 pts over GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.9 pts to 33.6 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS All indications still look good for a sustained period of fine anticyclonic weather moving over the UK from 24-48hrs time and then largely remaining in place for at least a week and maybe two Today's showery Westerly flow is probably the last day that any risk of rain exists for the South for at least aweek as all models show High pressure building North and NE across the UK over the weekend and on into Northern Europe. Once there it is scheduled to maintain a strong ridge back across the UK with fine and dry weather for all as a result. The air should be reasonably dry so sunshine amounts should be quite generous for many but cool nights could generate some night and morning mist and fog patches which may prove slow to clear for a few. Later next week there is some suggestion that a breezier period of east winds develops across the South with GFS still showing a breakdown from this scenario to showers, at first over the South then later for all but most output keep any showers just off shore towards our continental neighbours while we stay largely fine and probably warm by day. ECM has been suggesting that retrogression of the High back across the UK and away to the NW was likely in the latter stages of the 10 day period yesterday but this theme has been dropped this morning, backed up by it's mean data. So with little indication of a desire from any model to change the pattern quickly it looks like we can look forward to a fine mid Autumn spell as we enter October with some warmth and sunshine to be felt for many by day but as the days continue to shorten we muct be mindful that mist and fog and it's slow clearance could be an issue which if verified would change the complexion of weather felt at the surface immensely. Nevertheless, rainfall amounts and any strong winds should be low or maybe non-existent for most parts of the UK over the next two weeks if most of the output this morning verifies as shown. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif The worse chart of the day today as yesterday goes to the GEM +240 hr chart which is hardly that bad to be honest but does show pressure having fallen away sufficiently across the UK following the fine spell, enough to promote showery rain at times for all. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif Today's best chart goes to the ECM model for 10 days too showing a stark contrast from GEM at that time. This chart is liked by me as it comes on the back of an already week long fine High pressure based spell and with High pressure positioned close to the North as such would likely deliver many more days of fine and settled weather nationally for some considerable time thereafter. Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 25th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 23RD 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move away East out of the UK today followed by a weakening trough later today and tonight also moving east. Tomorrow will then see a showery westerly flow across the UK with pressure rising through the day from the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow on the move from currently moving South across the UK to an axis which keeps it well to the NW of the UK on a NE'ly track for some considerable time. Then longer term it breaks up and becomes ill defined as various options between members are factored in. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to run with the theme of High pressure developing across the UK from the weekend and then moving on to become centred over Northern Europe later next week. At the same time pressure is shown to fall from the South and the resultant Easterly flow will bring cloud and showery, potentially thundery rain up into Southern Britain later next week, a process which ebbs and flows through to the end of the period with the driest and brightest weather focused more towards the North, closest to the High pressure to the North or NE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is similar to the operational with fine High pressure based weather up to the middle of next week before pressure falls from the South later next week with some rain at times especially towards the South and West which after several failed attempts makes it all the way across the UK later in the period as High pressure to the North and NE finally dissolves away http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show another mixed crop today with the pendulum still on the side of more unsettled conditions likely in 14 days time probably from Low pressure based to the North or West of the UK with varying degrees of effect on the UK, NW to SE. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure continuing to build as it forms across England at the weekend. It then floats gently out into the North Sea maintaining a strong ridge back across the UK with fine and dry weather for all in light winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure building nicely from the SW at the weekend warding off all Atlantic troughs and maintaining fine and settled weather for all once the situation has developed at the start of the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows very close resemblance to the pattern shown by GFS today in that High pressure moves steadily away to the North and NE later next week allowing an ESE flow to develop quite strongly over the South in association with quite deep Low pressure developing to the SW threatening rain into the South and West of the UK at the end of the 10 day period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows High pressure edging away to the East next week but maintaining a strong ridge over the UK with winds between east and South for all but with any threat of a push from the Atlantic Low pressure held well at bay on this run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning is keeping a High pressure based theme for the UK throughout it's run this morning. there are fundamental shifts in the positioning of the High which could have implications later. As with the other output it moves to the east of the UK early next week but with a ridge maintained across the UK. It then backs West later and looks like backing off to the NW later with low pressure moving up dangerously close to the South at the same time as the door looks to be opening from a surge of cool northerly winds after the term date of this run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure stretched across the UK with almost universal support for fine and dry early Autumn weather with fine warm days and cool misty nights. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite restrictive in nature. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 86.5 pts over UKMO at 86.4 pts then GFS at 84.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.6 pts over GFS's 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.0 pts to 33.5 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS We are almost upon a period of fine and settled weather which unlike any of late looks like lasting some considerable time for most if not all of the UK. We have one more trough to clear through the UK later today and tonight before a strong pressure build from the South and SW takes shape to eliminate the showery Westerly tomorrow. By the weekend High pressure should be sat across the UK where it continues to strengthen before moving gently east out into the North Sea. Fine dry and probably sunny daytime conditions will be paid for by cool and misty potentially foggy nights which could be troublesome to clear in the mornings for some. Then we have to look further forward to see where the High moves too and what affect such a movement will have on the weather over the UK. It is encouraging to see ECM maintaining High pressure locked close to the UK right out to day 10 backed up by it's mean chart at Day 10. The operational run does show the end may be nigh after Day 10 as pressure is put on it from the South and later still the North as the High pulls back towards the NW. GFS on the other hand takes the High away to the NE rather quicker with more unsettled weather with rain at times moving up across at least the South and west later next week and eventually for all, This theme has some support from GEM too this morning with NAVGEM and UKMO looking more akin to taking the ECM route. So it looks like 4-5 days at least of universally fine conditions for the UK from Friday and probably a lot longer for most with any breakdown not showing enough support to guarantee at the moment and as long as we have ECM' fine weather in 10 days time on board which verifies best at the 10 day range I refuse to believe GFS and GEM in isolation. So lets sit back and enjoy the coming fine spell and hope that the slow clearance of overnight mists and fogs do not hamper what could be an Autumn warm and sunny period for all and not just the SE of the UK this time. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif The worse chart of the day today goes to the GEM +240hr chart which shows a slow moving and deep depression just off the SW of England pumping warm and very moist SE winds carrying a lot of rain to Southern and Western Britain in particular. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif I like this chart solely because it shows a newly developed anticyclone which has recently intensified and is slow moving to bring many days of fine and settled weather to all parts of the UK and not just for some. With a gentle feed off a relatively warm Europe some pleasantly warm Autumn daytime temperatures would occur from this set-up after fog clearance. Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 24th 2015