Gibby

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 19TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will weaken as troughs of Low pressure cross East over the UK tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow doggedly remaining rather unseasonable in both position and strength at times through the next few weeks often blowing across the UK from West or NW to East or SE. The trajectory does change to more of a SW to NE axis later in the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a gentle shift into somewhat more changeable conditions across the UK albeit the conditions bringing these conditions are slack and ill defined day to day as only shallow troughs drift across most parts at times with scattered showers and outbreaks of rain in places. Later in the period a more concise drift into breezier and unsettled weather under Atlantic Low pressure looks possible for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a very similar pattern today wih the same shallow airflow pattern next week gradually intensifying into a more pronounced pull of Atlantic Westerlies in Week 2 with some dry and bright spells in between for all areas. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters all show the likelihood that winds will be blowing from between West and North in two weeks time with somewhat changeable conditions for all with occasional oubtreaks of rain and temperatures no great shakes for late June. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a flat pattern next week with a lot of influence from High pressure just to the South of the UK with a lot of dry weather as a result but with the risk of slow moving showers at times too, perhaps most likely towards the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM also shows High pressure largely clinging on especially to the South where a lot of dry and sometimes quite warm weather prevails with just the risk of a few showers at times. In the North more changeable conditions are indicated but by no means a washout here either. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a lot of fair weather across the UK as synoptics remain slack with relatively light winds some showers but still with a lot of dry weather too when it will feel quite warm in the light winds and sunshine especially over the South http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning is also less unsettled looking though in its latter stages it does show many areas falling under the influence of Atlantic Low pressure and while the South remains escaping the worst of this the North could see some more appreciable rainfall. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows very similar synoptics to the 1o Day operational chart to today so I would suggest that this morning's release later will show little overall difference to last night's offering. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem to have shifted back somewhat to less influence from Low pressure affecting the South next week with somewhat less definition in the more general Low pressure previously shown in the second weektoo. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.8 too. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.6 pts with GFS at 83.5 pts and UKMO at 83.0 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.3 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 20.8 pts to 19.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Slightly busy this morning so just a quick appraisal of the runs this morning and in general they reflect a somewhat better picture again with less domination from Low pressure once we get through the messy array of troughs affecting the UK early next week. High pressure looks to be holding on for dear life across Southern Britain from most output this morning with more of North/South split likely through week 2 when things could become warm and humid across the South in largely dry weather while the North sees the greatest chance of rain and showers then. So while there is the risk of a shower almost anywhere next week a lot of dry weather will largely supercede the effects of this with temperatures pleasant enough for late June in the South and while the North may see more in the way of wind and rain in Week 2 the South looks set fair with a warm SW feed likely.. Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 20th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 18TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lies across the UK today from the SW with a somewhat more unstable airflow developing over Northern Britain later today and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow making the UK it's home for the reliable future as it travels West to East or NW to SE across us in association with a trough to the North or NE. Then in week 2 the orientation of the flow shifts to more of a SW to NE flow across us as Low pressure transfers into the Atlantic towards the West or NW of Britain. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a slow decline of High pressure to the SW across the UK as weak showery troughs push South across the UK over the weekend and start to next week. A Westerly flow will blow across the UK next week with occasional rain principally but not exclusively over the North as further troughs push through. Then in Week 2 the pattern backs West and allows winds to back SW across the UK to encourage warm and humid conditions to affect the South and East of the UK at least while rain at times continues to be a risk towards the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows just small and subtle differences to the operational run with the second week showing more of a North/South split with rain at times across the North with the South staying dry and fine for much of the time in association with High pressure never far away to the South. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters all show the likelihood that winds will be blowing from between West and North in two weeks time with no record breakingly high temperatures likely as a result and while a fair amount of dry weather will be experienced most towards the SW troughs and Low pressure will run East or SE across the North and east of the UK at times giving the risk of some rain or showers especially in the North and East. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a showery situation developing across the UK over the weekend and Monday as a showery trough moves SE across the UK before things settle down again in the South by Tuesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show slowly deteriorating conditions across the UK later in the weekend and start to next week as showery troughs in more unstable air drifts slowly South and East across the UK. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM also shows a period of more unstable conditions across the UK over the weekend and start to next week as a showery NNW flow sets up with some heavy showers across the North and East in particular. The pattern remains more changeable thereafter though still with a lot of dry weather especially in the South with Westerly winds carrying occasional outbreaks of rain across the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM holds things more set fair across the South early next week than some of the other output restricting the most showery conditions towards the North and maintaining this weak North/South split in the weather for the remainder of next week with the greatest risk of showers maintained in the North with the best chance of staying dry likely across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning is showing deteriorating conditions next week as pressure leaks away slowly to the South to allow more and more unstable air to invade deeper and deeper into the UK through the period. So the risk of showers will increase later in the weekend in the South as well as the North with all areas at risk of rain or showers at times next week as more of an unstable Westerly flow takes hold. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows pressure having leaked away somewhat in the next week with an increased risk of rain or showers as troughs and lower pressure reside in a slack Westerly flow across the UK at that point. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem to reflect slightly more unsettled weather developing across the UK with some rain or showers extending from the North into the South too at times. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.8 too. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.6 pts with GFS at 83.4 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.3 over 44.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.1 pts to 19.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS I am not quite so encouraged by the outputs this morning as it increasingly looks like the efforts of High pressure to move into a more favourable position for sustained UK wide warmth look dead in the water today as all models show some decline in domination of the High to the SW in the coming days with this decline maintained for some while thereafter. The Jet Stream is partly to blame again as it remains doggedly too far South across the UK and although not desperately strong it has sufficient power to prevent any ridging across the UK and in fact strengthens it's resolve in this morning's output in assisting more unstable or unsettled conditions to move down across the UK at times from later in the weekend and possibly much of next week too. Changes will not be dramatic though especially in the South and it may be some while before any widespread showery activity arrives here while the North and East always look to be at greatest risk on a daily basis. In my individual accounts from the models above I have not mentioned temperature levels and while no desperately cold weather looks likely with winds blowing across the UK from a cool Atlantic or even more from the North at times it is never going to be remarkably warm and after the reasonable temperatures in the South over recent days I think we will witness a fall back in temperatures nationwide in the coming week as the unstable cold pools of air drifts down across the UK. There is still some indication that High pressure may build back towards the South later in the period returning warm and settled weather here but this is a long way out and subject to moderation or expansion over up and coming ouputs. However, looking optimistically as a whole there is no particularly unpleasant weather on the horizon and while most gardeners and growers will welcome some showers holidaymakers and sun worshippers might of preferred a somewhat better set of output than what is on offer this morning. Next update from 08:00 Friday June 19th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough will move South across England and Wales followed by a slightly fresher NW flow under a ridge of High pressure tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather with just isolated showers in relatively warm conditions in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains focused on a flow travelling East or SE across the UK over the coming days before weakening somewhat next week but remaining in situ as Low pressure edges slowly South into the UK next week before weakening further thereafter. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a High pressure ridge remaining influential as it stretches across Southern Britain from the Azores. However, it weakens at times sufficiently for troughs to feed down from the NW introducing some showers to more Northern and Eastern areas at times before the High rebuilds at times close to the Sou. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows few changes to the overall synoptic pattern with High pressure down to the SW or South continuing to hold influence across the UK with a lot of fine and dry weather with just brief interventions of cloudier and damper conditions at times across the North and East. Things are shown to warm up considerably for a time in Week 2 as High pressure migrates to the SE and draws a period of humid, thundery aor North for a time from France. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK promoting a lot of fine weather in two weeks time. There remains some exceptions to this general rule of thumb with a more Atlantic based pattern with rain at times but these members still remain in the minority this morning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today has pressure becoming slacker over the weekend and start to next week. Winds remain from a NW source pulling down some cooler weather into the North with a few showers while the warmth is more likely across the South in the best of the sunshine. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts at first sight looks poor with a lot of weak frontal troughs straddling the UK from the NW over the coming 4-5 days with occasional rain and cloudy muggy air at times alternating with brighter and fresher days later. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM shows only very slow changes too as High pressure to the SW continues to ward off attacks from the West or NW from weakening roughs moving down over the UK at times. A lot of dry and bright weather is likely but with occasional thicker cloud patches delivering some showers or outbreaks of rain towards the North and East.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure remaining largely in control with the centre just to the SW or West. Somewhat cooler air will be drawn South at times with a few showers in the North and East while the West sees the best of the weather. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM too shows a lot of High pressure in control of the weather across the UK, most so across the South as weak fronts deliver cloud and a little rain or showers to the North at times. Then a short more unsettled period for all is shown next week as a deeper Low crosses the North with some wind and rain for all before High pressure re-estblishes from the South later next week with fine and warm conditions developing, once more especially across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows that the basic message remains the same with High pressure never far away to the South or SW ensuring South is best for fine and relatively warm weather while the North sees the occasional risk of a little rain from Atlantic fronts rounding the High pressure ridge's Northern flank. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone though some ingress of Low pressure from the NW does feature from some output at times. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.7 pts with GFS at 83.2 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.8 over 44.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.8 pts to 20.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The main message from the output today is again one of High pressure remaining largely dominant across the UK in the shape of a ridge from the SW. There are signs of a slackening of the NW flow through the weekend and start to next week as pressure leaks away somewhat and this might promote a few more showers with time but no major breakdown looks likely as High pressure still looks like rebuilding later perhaps more favourably in position to allow rather warmer conditions to develop across a wider portion of the UK. So not much else to say this morning with changes just small from day to day and area to area so with some confidence this morning I can say that there is a lot of dry and very useable conditions to come for most and while not excessively hot at anytime some reasonable and comfortably warm weather is likely for many with just the chance from time to time of a shower or two to dampen the ground more especially in the North. Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 18th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 16TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the South of the UK today will be superceded by a weakening front moving slowly South across the UK later today, tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather with just isolated showers in relatively warm conditions in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains rather pessimistic in mood over the coming two weeks as the flow undulates across the UK in the coming days before strengthening under a UK trough next week and continuing in similar unseasonal mood in strength and positioning through Week 2 with very changeable weather likely for the UK as a result. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure never far away from the South or SW of England over the coming days maintaining a ridge towards the South with fine bright and reasonably warm conditions at times. Further North more cloud and a little rain at times seem likely from weak Atlantic troughs and with time the ridge over the South becomes tenuous enough to allow these troughs to slip further South and SE across the UK. Then next week the ridge loses influence altogether with a period of cyclonic weather with rain or showers for all later next week before a more NW/SE setup seems likely with the wetter conditions transferring towards the North and West in mild SW winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is a lot better if it's a continuation of fine and dry weather your after. Although a weakening of the High pressure ridge this coming weekend and early next week is indicated with a period of slack winds promoting a few showers High pressure builds back more favourably positioned later to draw some very warm air across the UK from the South for a while with a thundery breakdown late in the period and more unsettled weather to finish the period in the North and NW. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a rridge towards the UK promoting a lot of fine weather still in two weeks time. There are of course some exceptions to this general rule of thumb with a more Atlantic based pattern with rain at times but these members remain in the minority at the moment. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure maintained out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK in a light NW flow for many. A few showers may develop by the weekend and even more so early next week as a slightly more enhanced trough slips SE across the UK early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure continuing to be held out to the SW of Britain with weak frontal troughs invading the airspace of the UK weakened by the associated ridge from the High across the South of the UK. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM remains High pressure orientated comfortably in control of the weather across the UK with just a period of slacker pressure early next week that could promote the odd shower or two for a time and the odd trough affecting the far North of the UK at times too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too undulates a High pressure ridge towards and away from the South of the UK over the coming days and week with a NW flow carrying weak troughs down over the North and East at times perhaps with the odd shower. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM is quite progressive in it's demise of the High pressure ridge early next week as shallow Low pressure moves into the UK next week promoting showers and outbreaks of rain and somewhat cooler conditions. By the end of the run though High pressure building South of the UK looks like it could bring back warm and settled weather to at least the South and East of the UK towards the end of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows that our long lasting High pressure ridge is slowly being replaced by something of a bias towards a UK trough in slack winds looking likely in 10 days time. The methodology used to create the chart hides the patterns which make up it's view and vary quite a bit ine to another between both better and worse than what's shown. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone though some ingress of Low pressure from the NW does feature from some output next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.7 pts with GFS at 83.3 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.7 over 44.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 21.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning the models remain largely focused on the behaviour of High pressure positioned out to the SW of the UK and how much influence it holds across the UK. In the short term it does allow some weak fronts to cross South across the UK but rainfall amounts will be very restrictive and mostly towards the North. Cloud amounts will be large at times and this may hold temperatures down to comfortable levels in the North but some warm weather could be experienced in the South. Then next week there are indications with some cross model support that a period of more showery weather may develop as a more enhanced trough moves down from the North in the light flow. ECM is the most progressive of these outcomes with several days of relatively cool and unstable conditions. However, it does indicate too that High pressure may well build back after this at least across the South and East where hints that it might become very warm are shown. So in a nutshell today prospects remain reasonable and while a heatwave looks very unlikely in the near future as long as that High pressure remains out to the SW conditions look favourable enough for most people to enjoy some fine early Summer weather and although this may be punctuated with odd days of cloud and a little rain or showers no large rainfall amounts look likely across most areas of the UK for the next few weeks at least. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 17th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 15TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will build across the UK today with troughs of Low pressure affecting the Northand NW later today, tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly fine and warm across the South and West. Cloudier with a little rain at times in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains the thorn in our side in restricting the best of Summer weather away to the South of the UK as the flow currently close to the North strengthens midweek and tilts NW to SE later in the week. The flow then strengthens further across the heart of the UK blowing West to East through Week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure never far away from the South or SW of England over the two week period. While this may be fine for southermost parts the West or NW flow around it's Northern flank spends a lot of time blowing down across the UK with somewhat cooler and cloudier conditions as a result with some showers possible at times for Northern areas and some eastern parts too at times. equally there is some very warm periods shown for brief periods as warm air is wafted up from the South occasionally. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is also showing a High pressure ridge from the Azores to Southern England waxing and waning over the period as repeated attacks from Westerly or NW Atlantic winds affect the UK bringing cooler and cloudier conditions at times with some showery outbreaks most frequently to the North but also to the South too at times where the best of the pleasantly warm and dry conditions will continue to prevail. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a receded amount of influence shown today as ingress of Atlantic winds and fronts show signs of making inroads across the UK at times in two weeks time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK at times but with a feed of NW winds across the UK replacing the warm conditions in the South midweek with cooler though still pleasant conditions at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the battle between the dominance of High pressure from the SW and a succession of weak or very weak troughs pushing down across the UK from the North later in the week and the West by the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM sthis morning shows overall good conditions across the UK through the next 10 days as it manages to hold strong influence from High pressure across the UK with the best conditions across the South while the North do see some cloudier and cooler conditions with a little rain from weak Atlantic troughs brushing by to the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM has a High pressure ridge from the SW across the South of the UK at times occasionally put under pressure by weak fronts coming SE across the UK later this week and as a result tempering the warmth in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM shows High pressure in control of the weather ridging up from the SW with warm conditions in the South while some cloud and rain affect the North from troughs coming in off the Atlantic. Then late in the week the troughs sink South, weakening as they do but dropping temperatures back somewhat in the South. By the weekend and early next week the ridge has receded away SW somewhat but pressure remains slack but relatively high still across the UK with just the risk of a few showers here and there. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows not much has changed over recent days with a ridge still showing likely to lie across the South from the Azores with more changeable westerly winds restricted towards the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.5 pts with UKMO at 83.2 pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.7 over 43.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.6 pts to 21.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains the driving force of the weather across the models this morning so nothing much has changed on that score over the weekend. However, it's nemesis is the Jet stream which refuses to lie down sufficiently to allow High pressure to otherwise ridge across the UK to Scandinavia and thereby give us very warm and sunny weather for a sustained period. Instead we have to deal with the consequences and complications that it's centre held down to the SW of the UK gives us in the shape of cooler air filtering down across the UK from the NW as well as weak troughs delivering pathcy rain across the North at times. While there are differing day to day varaiations on the positioning of the ridge and High pressure centre itself shown between the ouputs today the message from all is broadly the same. So this week looks pretty good especially if you live across the South where some Tropical maritime air feeds in midweek raising temperatures to very warm levels for a time in the South. Then as a toppling set of fronts come down over the UK cooler air is fed back once more and while the effects of this will always be muted in the South the North looks unlikely to see any sustained warm and dry weather for a while yet with temperatures never better than average here. Longer term changes look to be slow and the general trend appears to be to keep the status quo of High pressure down to the SW and gentle West, NW or North winds blowing across the UK with fine and dry weather predominant and just a little rain at times in the North. Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 16th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 13TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough of Low pressure slow moving acoss Central parts of England and Wales will weaken further and return SE across SE Britain as pressure builds from the West tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly fine and warm across the South and West. Cloudier with a little rain at times in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow to the North of the UK ebbing and flowing a little South then ridging back North later in the week. The flow then becomes more cyclonic around a cut off Low near Southern Britain late in the run. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure largely in control of the weather often situated to the SW of the UK and most influential to the South of the UK with more of an occasional intervention of Atlantic fronts from the Atlantic affecting the North. Later in the run High pressure shifts more towards the North of the UK with a switch to North as best as thundery Low pressure again shows some ingress into Southern Britain later http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is High pressure based too for the next week to 10 days again positioned out to the SW of the UK throwing a ridge towards Southern Britain. Then through the second week the more changeable conditions affecting the North will become much more widespread as Low pressure becomes dominat across the UK in the latter stages of the period. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today some members showing fine weather holding on across the UK in two weeks time but with an increased group today indicating that Low pressure maybe showing a greater hand on conditions across the UK probably from the NW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a lot of dry and warm weather across the South with a period of cloudier, windier and occasionally damper weather for a period midweek in the North. Then late in the week High pressure affecting the South is shown to build back across the North too by next weekend with fine and warm conditions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts look broadly similar to the raw data as High pressure ridging in from the SW squeezes the life out of the weakening troughs across the South and then with a weakening cold front approaching from the West by later in the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM shows very similar dynamics through the period as High pressure ridging across the South early in the week is interrupted in the North by troughs and some rain midweek before all areas join in with better weather later in the run as High pressure builds across all areas with some fine and warm conditions for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a very summery period developing late in the week with the tentative High pressure affecting the South early and midweek extending to all areas later with fine and in places very warm and sunny weather by next weekend especially across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM shows South and West is best this week as High pressure to the SW exerts it's best influence to these areas while in the North and East cloudier and cooler weather with a little rain in association with weak fronts travelling SE midweek and again later in the week slows the progress of better weather to the North. then at the very end of the run a fall in pressure could bring some showers almost anywhere and a cool northerly could be noticeable across the east for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night remains locked on the fact that High pressure is likely to be strongly ridged across the UK from the SW in 10 days time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure becoming influential eventually to all areas. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.0 pts with UKMO at 83.1 pts and GFS at 82.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.5 over 40.8. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.4 pts to 22.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Fine Summerlike conditions across the UK still look likely to be affecting many parts of Britain although patience for the very best weather may be necessary especially if you live in the North. High pressure to the SW remains the focus of attention for this as it ridges towards Southern Britain through the week and to all areas from next weekend. The North will see more Atlantic winds and occasional rain as troughs move across from the West especially midweek before pressure builds across these areas too later bringing the good weather covering the South for much of the time across these Northern areas too. Some very warm weather can be expected especially across the South and SW which remain closest to the centre of the High pressure. Then as we move through Week 2 although some evidence of a breakdown perhaps into another thundery or cooler showery period is shown and this includes ECM this morning this is by no means set in stone and could be due to individual variances between the runs. The ensembles look good though in the 10 day period from all output and it's not until we reach the outer limits of the period that more unsettled conditions show a bit more coherence today. So lets continue to look forward to a period of good summer weather when the large proportion of the time is dry, fine and warm with just the usual summer caveats of the North seeing a rain at times or the chance of a thundery shower or two in the South again later in the period Next update from 08:00 Monday June 15th 2015 No report from me tomorrow. Back as usual Monday morning.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 12TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A thundery trough of Low pressure is moving up into southern Britain today before stalling and weakening over Central areas tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly warm weather should return next week, especially in the South and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow much weaker than of late with the flow generally to the NW of the UK. Through the run today the flow remains quite weak and difficult to pin down in terms of positioning and orientation http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today continues to show High pressure largely in control of the UK weather, positioned close to or over the UK in the coming weeks. While not necessarily over hot from it's positioning this morning plenty of fine and dry weather is likely for all with the sunniest and warmest conditions developing across the South and West while the North and East may see more in the way of cloud and slightly lower temperatures at times especially for a time later next week and more generally right at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is largely quite similar to the operational with the SW as best for temperatures and fine weather as High pressure lies close to the SW or west for much of the time. The run also shows the same more changeable weather as the operational shown right at the end of the period for a time . THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show fine weather well in control of the weather largely from a ridge lying to the SW or by some members over the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today is slightly less encouraging than yesterday in that it takes the warmer and High pressure based air developing early next week away to the South later as a strengthening WNW flow drags troughs in cooler air with occasional rain down across many parts of the UK soon after midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well with the removal of the complex thundery trough structure on Sunday as High pressure builds across the UK and then troughs queue up out to the NW by the middle of the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM looks much like UKMO this morning in it's first 6 day period with a push of cooler Atlantic driven air spoiling the improvements of early next week with cloud and some rain later in the week. It is just a temporary spoiler though as High pressure rebuilds across the UK by the end of the run with fine and in places warm weather returning next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure early next week with some sunshine and warm temperatures. However, it too later in the week shows winds veering to a cooler Northerly though away from the far North and East a lot of dry and sometimes bright weather may ensue. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif . ECM ECM looks more encouraging than some of the rest through the middle section of next week as High pressure remains closer in towards western Britain restricting any influence of cooler Atlantic Westerly or NW'ly winds to the far north and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night remains encouraging as a ridge from the Azores anticyclone remains led across the UK from the SW on Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend of the models today have introduced more of a hiatus in the High pressure based outlook towards the middle and end to next week as West or NW winds bring cooler and cloudier conditions South and East across the UK not previously shown as extensive. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.8 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.9 pts with UKMO at 82.9 pts and GFS at 81.9 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.9 over 42.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.8 pts to 21.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS While I remain optimistic about the overall pattern of the weather across the UK over the coming weeks as usual some caveats have developed in the last 24 hours which may limit the improvements I predicted yesterday at least for a time, The thundery trough of the weekend is still predicted to be out of the way by Monday with some dry and bright conditions developing for several days with warming days but chilly nights again for a time. By midweek winds will blow from the West across the UK and an incursion of a trough up to the NW looks like it could bring a cloudier and damper phase to the North and generally weaken good conditions in the South too. It does look a short lived down turn though as High pressure is then shown by most models to regain control across the UK with fine and warm conditions developing for all by and over next weekend and into week 2. The main difference between yesterdays and todays output is an underlying problem we have had for ages now in that we cannot seem to get High pressure in exactly the right place with the centre always wanting to position just to the West and SW rather than over the UK. These small synoptical differences can and do have radical surface differences in conditions across the British Isles which on this occasion look like reserving the very best of conditions across the South and West of the UK. Nevertheless there remains a lot of reason for optimism and all areas should enjoy some fine and warm conditions still across the next few weeks though we may be chasing areas of cloud in a West or NW breeze at times across the North and East. Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 13th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 11TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies across Northern areas today with a thundery Low over France moving North into Southern Britain later tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly very warm weather should return next week, especially in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow generally to the North of the UK and though undulating somewhat north and South through the two weeks it does more or less remain in situ as High pressure remains fairly close to the South of the UK for much of the time. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today is a nice run if it's fine and warm summer weather your after with the thundery Low pressure of the weekend moving away East by Monday and allowing High pressure to build over or just off shore of the UK delivering increasingly warm and sunny weather for many with just the North experiencing a Westerly breeze and cloudier skies for a while next week before these areas too come into the fine and warm weather too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is equally set fair with High pressure becoming under control of the UK weather from early next week and lasting through to the end of the period with some very warm and sunny weather at times especially in the South. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to have the greater chance of being dominant to the UK in 14 days time though there are some options that show some more unsettled weather possible from off the Atlantic. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows High pressure building strongly across the UK behind the thundery rain event at the weekend, settling over Southern Britain by midweek with fine and eventually warm weather developing for all but especially over the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the thundery Low over France edging up into Southern and central England before receding away East and SE again by the end of the weekend with a strong build of High pressure across the UK by Tuesday of next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM too shows High pressure building again next week, near Southern Britain with some fine and increasingly warm weather developing. Northern areas will still be affected by a Westerly breeze and more cloud and as a result cooler conditions but even here a lot of dry weather with the highest temperatures looking likely to be across the SW of Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure out to the SW of the UK later next week with the weekend thundery rain clearing away to leave an improving picture next week with the South seeing the best of the improvements with fine and increasingly warm weather under variable cloud while the North sees more cloud and perhaps a little rain as troughs brush through. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM too has High pressure developing strongly across the British Isles through the early days of next week as the thundery Low pressure at the weekend weakens and moves away SE. It then largely remains in situ for the rest of the run with fine and warm summer weather for many areas as a result. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night remains encouraging for a sustained period of warm and sunny conditions under a tradiltional Summer ridge of High pressure stretching across the UK from the Azores. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has strengthend further for the UK to become strongly influenced by Summer High pressure over or close to the South of the UK in the mid term. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.4. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.9 pts with UKMO at 82.6 pts and GFS at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.8 over 42.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.3 pts to 21.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The models have strengthened their affirmation that High pressure is likely to lie across the UK next week with fine, sunny and very warm conditions looking very likely especially across the South and SW. Northern and NE areas may be at risk of somewhat cloudier Westerly or NW breezes and as a result somewhat cooler conditions at times but even here there is likely to be some fine and warm weather too. As an extension of the Azores High pressure this High pressure should contain more humid weather than of late and this should be most noticeable by night with some much warmer nights expected next week then many parts of the UK have experienced so far this season. After the thundery rain events of the coming few days there looks to be a famine in rain amounts thereafter especially in the South where some parts (going by this morning's output) could see the period up to the end of the run completely dry from Monday. Of course I muct add the caveat that though dry weather looks pretty guaranteed the positioning of the High will be instrumental into providing any one place with the highest temperatures but going on todays performance from the models the SW looks best favoured for this. It's nice to report on a set of models that more or less sing from the same hymn sheet and for once I think I can confidently say that the UK is heading for it's first spell of proper summer weather when we can share in all elements that fine weather can bring at this time of year and that includes high temperatures, something that has been sadly missing in the recent spell of good weather. Next update from 08:00 Friday June 12th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 10TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will persist across Central Britain today with a thundery trough edging into SW England tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly very warm weather should return next week, especially in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern arm of the Jet much weaker and lying to the North of the UK. The Southern arm will lie across the Mediterannean early next week while the Northern arm regroups to lie North of the UK again, sinking slowly South across the UK later next week before breaking up again through the rest of week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today again shows a move towards true Summer next week at least across Southern Britain as the thundery low pressure areas near Southern Britain over the weekend move away East and pressure builds across the South from the Azores. With warmer and humid air temperatures should be much higher than currently with plenty of warm sunshine with Northern areas though warmer less settled with a little rain at times. Late in the run another burst of thundery energy from the South is shown to affect the South of the UK despite High pressure being maintained close by to the South again later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run also shows a lot of High pressure based weather but after next weeks warmth from the Azores High it becomes less favourably positioned to ensure maintained warmth with cooler air shown back again with some showers at times in the second week THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to lie out to the West and SW in two weeks time though with somewhat less vigour than yesterday showing more of a NW flow for many with a few showers possible especially across the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows thundery Low pressure clearing away East early next week as a ridge from the Azores High moves in by Tuesday. Low pressure out to the NW may affect the NW at times though by midweek next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure declining later this week as the UK becomes home to thundery Low pressure along with NW Eurpe in general before the NW show things cooling down again and clearing by the start of next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows the thundery showery air at the weekend slowly replaced from the West by a ridge of High pressure. warm and eventually very warm weather reaches the South on this system after midweek with the North somewhat more cloudy and damp while all areas see a drop in temperatures somewhat by the end of the period though High pressure remaining well in control for all.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows thundery Low pressure slowly exiting the SE early next week as a strong ridge of High pressure from the Azores sits on our doorstep by midweek next week with fine very warm and sunny weather in the South by the middle of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM too shows showery thundery Low pressure edging into Southern Brtain at the end of the week lasting through the weekend before High pressure builds down from the NW to start next week and settles across the South delivering some very warm and sunny weather here while the North may turn more cloudy with a little rain in the far NW as fronts brush by to the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows strong support for High pressure from the Azores to be ridged across the UK from the SW delivering fine, warm and sunny weather to many especially in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for High pressure to re-establish across Southern Britain from the middle of next week, better positioned to deliver much warmer air than of late. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.6 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.6 pts with UKMO at 82.03pts and GFS at 81.1 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.7 over 42.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.5 pts to 20.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The models are continuing to develop a much more Summery look to them at last as the cool Northerly aspect wind and cool temperatures by night look to finally becoming a thing of the past next week as High pressure ridges up from the Azores across the Southern half of the UK at least. There is still some jostling around between the outputs on the overall longevity of this anticipated very warm period with some outputs indicating the chance that cooler and potentially showery air might return later but the ECM long term mean looks pretty solid on suggesting a very favourable position for the UK in 10 days and the GFS' s clusters aren't bad either with some sort of link between High pressure to the SW and a possible secondary build of pressure over Scandinavia. I must mention also that parts of the North may be on the fringes of this fine weather with some cloud and possible drizzly rain affecting the far NW at times later next week and this cooler air may extend further South at times through the second week but Eastern Scotland at least could benefit from very warm temperatures too in fohn effect conditions too for a time if things evolve as shown. While June is proving to be an OK sort of month so far in weather terms temperatures have never been that impressive and very low by night but I feel the bar is about to be raised and by the middle of next week it could be that two thirds of the UK at least could share some fine very warm days and warm nights with plenty of sunshine and the mostly dry start to June (after the first few days) look like being maintained with the exception of the local downpours of the coming days. Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 11th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 9TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will lie across the UK with a weak trough of Low pressure affecting the far North today and a NE flow developing over the South tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Quite settled for a time with sunny spells and warm conditions by day locally before more showery conditions develop late in the week and next weekend before probably more settled conditions return again. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm of the flow well North of the UK currently. It weakens and breaks up over the coming week with a new arm developing over Southern Spain and North Africa moving NE. Meanwhile the ill defined nortehrn arm lying further North under a UK trough moves North again later to blow stronger in a NE direction well to the NW of the UK by the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a run of two halves with Week 1 taking us up to the middle of next week showing thundery showers likely almost anywhere eventually with some warm and humid air across the South as shallow Low pressure moves North from Europe later this week. Then from the middle of next week to the end of the run a largely dry, fine and very warm period looks likely over the South at least as High pressure builds across the South of the UK for much of the time with an Atlantic SW feed across the North perhaps delivering occasional rain at times there. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is not too different to the operational run today with a shift of emhasis away from thundery showers later next week especially across the South as High pressure builds across from the SW or West restricting any remaining unsettledness to Northernmost parts under a Westerly breeze. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to lie out to the West and SW in two weeks time though with somewhat less vigour than yesterday showing more of a NW flow for many with a few showers possible especially across the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows thundery conditions at he end of the week and beginning to the weekend as thundery Low pressure edges up into the Uk from Europe. It then shows signs of moving away to the East very early next week as a High pressure ridge from the Atlantic slips slowly SE across the UK from the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure declining later this week as the UK is invaded from the South by thundery troughs of Low pressure and then remains the breeding ground for plenty of showers over the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows unsettled and showery Low pressure becoming established later this week and over the weekend with the South seeing the worst of these before a North/South divide develops later in the run with High pressure building close to the South with a more changeable westerly flow likely across the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM looks much like UKMO this morning building High pressure back across the UK from the NW early next week following showery Low pressure late in this week and the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM too shows showery thundery Low pressure edging into Southern Brtain at the end of the week lasting through the weekend before High pressure builds down from the NW to start next week and settles across the South delivering some very warm and sunny weather here while the North may turn more cloudy with a little rain in the far NW as fronts brush by to the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a strong ridge from the Azores High lying across the Uk with fine and warm weather likely as a result. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has shifted towards Low pressure at the weekend moving slowly away to the East next week in the wake of more High pressure especially across the South. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.9 pts with UKMO at 82.0 pts and GFS at 81.3 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.3 over 41.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.1 pts to 21.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The models seem to be maintaining their general theme of a period of thundery weather later this week and the weekend lasting into the start of next week in the East and South before a pressure build from the West or SW takes control. While the humid, thundery period could be followed by a short cooler period early next week as the thundery Low exits East it looks like it will be warming up especially in the South as the winds move in from a warm West or SW source later. In the North there may be sufficient influence from troughs to the North to bring cloud and a little rain though even here some fair and warm weather is possible. There looks every reason to be optimistic once we get through the upcoming period of thundery weather over the next 5-7 days. It looks likely that the South will eventually see the highest temperatures so far this summer if the High pressure builds across the South as shown and with some high humidity levels it could feel a little muggy at times. The far North may see more cloud and perhaps a little rain under a fresher Westerly but even here in the shelter of the mountains some warm and humid conditions could develop at times. I would say the models are slowly shaping up into a more traditional Summer setup next week with a traditional North/South divide between best in the South and not quite so good in the North with the nationally cool nights than we seem to have experienced for an age finally and hopefully departing our shores for a few months from later next week. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 10th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 8TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will lie across the UK with a weak trough of Low pressure affecting the far North tomorrow and an increasing NE flow across Southern England tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Quite settled for a time with sunny spells and warm conditions by day locally before more showery conditions develop late in the week and next weekend before probably more settled conditions return again. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast looks a little confusing this morning as it oscillates North and South across the UK in a broken fashion over the coming couple of weeks. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today looks quite High pressure based with an interruption in this towards the end of the week and over the weekend as a thundery Low edges up from the South and then slowly away East over Europe with a build of pressure behind leading to another fine and warm spell for many next week http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar to the operational today with a brief spell of showery weather at the end of the week and the weekend leading into a largely fine weather based second week as a large High develops over the UK. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show quite a promising outlook this morning as High pressure looks like playing a major part in the UK weather two weeks from now with a centre over or to the West of the UK and just a 10% group suggesting anything meaningfully unsettled. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO too shows a thundery Low moving slowly North into Southern Britain at the end of the week and the weekend before signs of it moving away to the East by the start of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate falling pressure later in the week as a thundery Low draws warm and humid air up into Southern Britain towards the end of the week and the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows showery weather from the end of the week lasting rather longer than some of the other output as a second incursion of Low pressure from the North delays the rise of pressure until later next week on this run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pressure rising from the SW after a showery period at the end of the week and start to the weekend as a thundery Low pressure edges away towards the East at the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM shows showery conditions too developing especially across the South later in the week as thundery Low pressure dges up from the South. A brief improvement is then shown across the North for a time early next week as higher pressure develops before more showery Low pressure moves down across the UK late in the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a ridge from the SW towards Southern Britain maintaining a lot of fine and bright weather with any rain restricted to weak fronts close to the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has shifted towards Low pressure at the weekend moving slowly away to the East next week in the wake of more High pressure. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM leads GFS and UKMO with 85.6 over GFS's's 81.4 pts respectively. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.9 over 41.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.8 pts to 22.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Finally the models seem to be firming up on expected conditions from the weekend as the thundery Low moving up into Southern Britain at the end of the week and weekend seems to have reasonable cross model support to move away to the East by early next week as pressure builds strongly again from the SW. So the fine and bright weather looks like being replaced by thundery showers towards the end of the week especially in the South and this may extend to other areas for a time. However, of much more note this morning is the trend shown for High pressure to develop across the UK bringing fine and warm weather to many areas, at least to the Southern two thirds of the UK with any affects of weak troughs of Low pressure just affecting the far North of the UK. There are still a few exceptions to this general rule of thumb who want to keep unsettled conditions a little longer notably and worryingly the ECM operational but on the whole the models look better this morning longer term with less emphasis on coolness shown than of late as many runs indicate less of a Northerly influence. So all in all ECM aside a lot of dry and fine weather over the next few weeks with a sandwich of three or four days commencing late Thursday of more showery and potentially thundery weather before the fine weather returns for many next week. Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 9th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JUNE 7TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure is developing across the SW half of the UK with the cool NW flow across the North decreasing and veering north tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Quite settled for a time with sunny spells and warm conditions by day locally before more unstable conditions develop late in the week and next weekend. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the same pattern as previous with the flow relocating to the NW of the UK over the coming days before a trough developing across or near the Uk soon after midweek dips it back South again albeit in much weaker and ill defined form by next weekend and beyond. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a ridge of High pressure lying across the UK over the next 3-4 days before it is squeezed back to the West both from the South and North by falling pressure which then develops a Low pressure complex around or eventually over the UK for the rest of the run with cool and at least showery conditions for all areas from later next week on for the remainder of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run differs greatly in the second half of it's run with High pressure ridging back across the UK after an unsettled period and establishing a fine and warm spell for all areas through Week 2. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a strong bias towards the likelihood that High pressure will lie out to the SW of the UK two weeks from now with a ridge towards Britain ensuring a good deal of dry and bright weather. A minority do still show more influence from the Atlantic with some rain at times especially for the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure taking a back seat later next week as showery Low pressure moves up from the South soon after midweek and encompasses much of the UK by next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate falling pressure later in the coming week after several days of High pressure across the UK in the first half of the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows an unusually cool and showery period following the High pressure of the first few days of this coming week. Then towards the end of the run a ridge of High pressure topples East over Britain cutting off the flow and bringing warmer weather to all and more settled weather too in the SE while the North and West continue to see occasional rain from Atlantic fronts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows showery and rather cool conditions developing across the UK well before next weekend as Low pressure in a light Northerly flow becomes established across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM shows showery conditions too developing especially across the South later in the week though on this run at least an attempt to hold a weak High pressure area close to the North is shown which gradually develops a link to the Azores High and restricts showers to the South later and possibly eliminating them altogether by Day 10 as High pressure re-establishes NE across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows slightly better hopes than recent versions as the emphasis appears to be for a greater influence across the UK from the ridge of High pressure from the Azores High towards the South http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to ebb and flow towards a more unsettled and showery interlude at least to develop across the UK late next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM leads GFS with 85.5 over GFS's's 81.5 pts with UKMO at 81.3. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.4 over 43.2. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.1 pts to 23.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Things seem no clearer this morning between the output as all models show various outcomes between each other and also differences in what they were showing last evening indicating unusually low confidence should be given credibility to any one slution at this time. The ensembles too give very little indication of longer term prospects as the members all show some influence from High pressure out to the SW but how much is very speculative and disagreed upon. So as a result we are left to the part of the period where things are more certain and that is that the next 3-4 days which will see a lot of fine and dry weather though never overly warm and with some unseasonably cold nights for this stage of the year. A few showers in the East tomorrow could enhance the cool feel and then a more coherent deterioration in conditions look like arriving from the South or SE from Thursday as thundery showers begin to affect the SE before likely spreading to other areas in the days thereafter. From then on no clear signal is given with a lot of output showing cool and showery weather persisting under Low pressure while other output recovers pressure later to return dry weather to many. This theory does currently hold the balance of power but a good few more runs are needed yet through the early days of this week before the final outcome for the second week is likely to become resolved. So while some pleasant weather is likely over the coming few weeks some interruptions from cool showers, heavy at times are likely and while the weather could be described as 'could be a lot worse' I feel it could be a good deal better too from some output at times given the time of year. Next update from 08:00 Monday June 8th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 6TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression near Northern Scotland and a Westerly flow over the UK will weaken as the Low moves away and fills by tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West before more unstable conditions develop late in the week and next weekend. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show a problem for the UK as the flow weakens currently across us before moving away to the NW for a time next week. It then moves back South later next week and though less strong remains instrumental in carrying some Atlantic Low pressure influence to the UK in the second week broken up at times by ridges of High pressure diverting it back north at times. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational illustrtaes the pattern I described in the Jet Stream forecast well and shows High pressure across the UK next week with a lot of fine, dry and warm by day weather before a showery Low develops near the SE late in the week and introduces a spell of more unsettled conditions with some rain before a return to more settled conditions under warm High pressure is shown to temporatily affect the UK again in Week 2. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is broadly the same as the operational in terms of sequence of events this morning with perhaps more of a surge of very warm air in association with the second High pressure area shown in Week 2. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a close to 50/50 split between those members that show a High pressure ridge from the SW affecting the UK and those that show a greater chance that at least a shallow trough of Low pressure covers the UK and a few who signify something more disturbed than that. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning has taken a turn for the worse this morning as it has High pressure across the UK midweek before retiring it away down to the SW later with a cooler NW flow slowly becoming established across the UK late in the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure settling over the UK by midweek though the last too charts (96 & 120hrs) were produced based on yesterdays 12z model run. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows High pressure straddling Central parts of the UK by midweek with fine and dry weather across all areas. Then pressure falls both from the South and North and the High gets squeezed away SW across the Atlantic as cool and unsettled weather becomes established across the UK for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM does show a decline in pressure too later next week but does cling in to relatively High pressure of sorts near the North. After a fine first 3-4 days of next week some showery outbreaks look likely to break out over the South next weekend under shallow Low pressure to the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM shows deteriorating conditions too later next week as the High over the UK declines across the UK in the wake of Low pressure moving up from the South and to some degree from the NW too. The end result becomes an Atlantic depression to the West of Ireland at day 10 spelling a NW/SE split later with the North and West unsettled with rain at times while the South and East becomes dry and warm with some sunshine http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows the likely pressure across the UK to be around 1015mbs under quite slack conditions overall. While the chart does not depict any particular weather type without any bias towards High or Low pressure dominance I would suggest a lot of dry weather would be present with the risk of showers here and there. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to ebb and flow towards a more unsettled and showery interlude at least to develop across the UK late next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM leads GFS with 85.3 over GFS's's 81.4 pts with UKMO at 81.3. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.8 over 43.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 32.2 pts to 23.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning the models have led us up the garden path somewhat from even what was shown last night as once more a decline in pressure is shown to develop across the UK later next week replacing the fine and relatively warm daytime conditions with more showery and cooler weather by the weekend. The problems appear two fold as once more pressure is shown to fall from the South but also from the North too setting up a showery period under a likely Northerly drift. The models continue to show that it may well be a temporary blip as High pressure builds back through the second week with ECM this morning showing the likely pattern that was responsible for the longer term outlook from the Met yesterday with South and East becoming best for sun and warmth longer term. However, confidence and sustained patterning within the models for the mid and long term is extremely low at the moment with no model seeming to be able to get a handle on the overall pattern likely to emerge from later next week. It is worthy of mention that the verification statistics of the models longer term has been in the low 20's at times of late and continues to be woefully low so while this uncertainty remains let's enjoy what is relatively certain and that is a period of High pressure based weather with plenty of fine and warm sunshine and just chilly nights to worry about rather than wind and rain and hopefully in the coming days the models may finally come to some agreement on the likely course of events longer term. Next update from 08:00 Sunday June 7th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 5TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a fresher Westerly airflow for a time as pressure builds from the West tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West befoe a more showery interlude develops by next weekend. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow blowing North over the UK currently. This turns to a more West to East flow as it moves North over the weekend and sets up North of the UK for a time next week. Later in the run the flow reignites in a SE flow from the Atlantic over Western Britain to NW Europe as a trough of Low pressure develops near the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today looks less optimistic from a High pressure poin of view as after a spell of cool NE winds over the South and a lighter North drift over the North pressure falls through the middle of next week with showers developing to leave the second week with Low pressure over or close by to the UK either from a Northerly source and later a westerly one delivering spells of rain and showers in indifferent temperatures through the second half of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a different theory of arriving at the same place with a period of cool and bright weather under High pressure just to the west of the UK giving way to cool and unsettled, showery weather fuelled by a col upper pool of air to the SE by midweek next week and developing a Low pressure which delivers unsettled conditions off and on for the rest of the period with a short period of more settled conditions at the start of the second week before low pressure close to the SE returns cool and showery weather across the South and east once more. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the likelihoods of a trough of Low pressure close to the UK in 14 days time quite high with High pressure migrated more to the SW. There are a few members who cling on to High pressure closer by to the UK and also a few who show something even less wholesome than the majority pack this mroning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning looks rather better than GFS with High pressure close to the West early in the week with a relatively cool air mass over the UK slowly giving way to warmer conditions especially over the South as the High is shown to stradlle Northern Britain midweek with a warmer Easterly continental feed affecting the South in maintained dry and settled conditions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure west of Ireland well in control in the latter stages this morning with a cool NE flow over the South and generally fine conditions for all. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today also shows High pressure controlling the UK weather over the next week building in from the West over the weekend. A cool NE feed affects the South for a time before the ridge largely cuts this flow off towards midweek. Then pressure is shown to leak away as the High recedes away West and SW with Low pressure to the North extending cool air and a slack unstable and potentially showery Northerly airflow developing across all areas by the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM clings on to the High pressure area to the west of the UK with it's ridge across the Britain until the end of next week at least with the same weather pattern as the other models shown to occur through the week. The end frames of the run do show a slow fall of pressure at the end of the run with a NW flow becoming established across the UK by next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM looks like going the same way as much of the output this morning with High pressure early next week keeping things dry if never overly warm before pressure falls later with showers developing, first towards the SE then elsewhere too as Low pressure troughs feed across Britain from the NW too later next week. The end days of the run do show an improvement again as High pressure reuilds from the SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues it's slow decline from run to run as it brings a slow return of a Low pressure trough close to or over the UK with at least the risk of showers in largely average temperatures by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has very much swung towards a more unsettled and showery interlude at least to develop across the UK late next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM leads GFS with 85.2 over GFS's's 81.3 pts with UKMO at 81.2. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.1 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.7 pts to 22.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Though the fine weather prospects for the next 7 days remain as were so to speak our thoughts become more and more transfixed towards the increasing spread between the output of a change to lower pressure again from the North or NE late next week or over the weekend as the High to the West declines and recedes back SW or West. The problem seems to arise from a cold pool of air which slips SW over the South late in the weekend or start to next week which no onger slips away South over France and Portugal but returns NE close to the SE as a new born Low pressure area fuelling showers for the SE. At the same time pressure falls elsewhere too and Low pressure, albeit in a largely slack form increases the risk of rain and showers too almost anywhere by the end of next week. Though some warm weather will inevitably be felt for some the mostly NE feed will maintain a cool feel for some with exposure and night's could be unusually cool for early June under clear skies and grass frost cannot be ruled out. Looking further out still into Week 2 the jury remains out on whether the more showery phase is just a blip before High pressure rebuilds such as ECM suggests this morning by Day 10. So with low confidence on anything beyond day 7 we have to work through a High pressure period which although never ideally placed to give high summer weather does at least give a dry and bright period next week with temperatures pleasant by day but cold by night before showers develop later on in the week. Thereafter, more runs are needed on the longer term outlook with a 50/50 chance currently of a pendulum swing towards either continuing showery weather or a return to High pressure based conditions hopefully better positioned next time to deliver more guaranteed warmer weather than next weeks version. Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 6th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 4TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure from a European anticyclone covers the UK today followed by a trough of Low pressure moving East across the UK tonight and tomorrow.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show it blowing across the UK pushing a ridge of High pressure away East over Europe while a new ridge moves in from the West later as the flow weakens and eventually settles much more towards a point North of the UK before returning South and strengthening again at the very end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure gradually becoming established to the West of the UK pushing a ridge across Southern Britain early next week and a NW flow across the North. Then as the ridge in the South declines a little a new ridge from the same High covers the North and a NE flow develops across the South which then maintains itself until late in the run when pressure finally falls from the North and the dry and fine weather with locally warm conditions become replaced by cloud, rain and showers later from the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run features the same synoptic pattern through the first week with a lot of fine and pleasant early Summer weather for many under a ridge of High pressure based just West of the UK. However, the High declines quicker on this run in the wake of cool and unstable North or NW winds blowing down across the UK in the second week with rain and showers at times. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today maintain the theme of High pressure likely to be lying out to the SW of the UK two weeks from now with varying degrees of influence between members ranging from fine and dry weather under average temperatures to unsettled weather from Low pressure too close to the North to eliminate the threat of rain to many. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows cool, fresh and settled conditions across the UK at the start of next week as a large High lies parked to the West with a ridge from it lying across the heart of the UK. Pleasantly warm in the sunshine look the order of conditions but night's look like being cool and a naggingly cool NE breeze looks like affecting the South early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror thhe raw data package this morning quite well with High pressure just to the West of the UK becoming the main influence for the UK next week http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows persistent High pressure centred just to the west of the Uk for a week or so once formed at this coming weekend. Ill positioned for the best of conditions it should still provide plenty of dry and bright weather with variable cloud cover but chilly nights where skies clear under a Northerly drift. Late in the run the ridge collapses somewhat with the increased risk of some showers by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM looks set fair next week as High pressure establishes across Ireland or just to the West over the weekend and persists then throughout next week. A ridge from it then covers the UK with fine and dry weather under variable cloud cover with the best temperatures likely towards shelter to the light North or NE flow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM too shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather next week, centred foremostly to the West of the UK with a strong ridge across our Islands ensuring fine, dry and pleasantly warm weather away from any variable and sometimes large cloud patches and any breeze blowing from the North or NE, this principally across the South early next week. The end of the run suggests something of a collapse in pressure which in many respects mirrors last night's 10 day mean chart showing slack relatively High pressure still across the UK but with the risk of some showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night maintains something resembling a ridge towards the UK from High pressure to the SW in 10 days time but with an upper air pressure weakness over NW Europe one should cater for the chance of showers here and there. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is very much a High pressure based one this morning lasting a week or so with a centre most likely just to the West of the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM leads GFS with 85.6 over GFS's's 81.7 pts with UKMO at 81.3. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.9 over 44.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.2 pts to 22.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS It is almost certain now that the UK will become affected by a large High pressure area centred just to the West of the UK through next week and probably beyond. Before we get there a somewhat messy weekend picture of humid air exiting the SE with thundery showers and a cold front clearing through Britain bringing cooler and fresher conditions with a few showers in the North has to be got through before all areas look like settling into many days of broken cloud and sunny spells. Temperatures should be average or somewhat above by day given any shelter with the prohibitive hot weather factor being the persistence of a drift of wind from the North or NE keeping exposed parts naggingly cool. Cloud amounts could be an issue by day too with convective cloud formation in the morning's flattening out to give some rather cloudy afternoons for some and while this largely clears overnight some cool nights can be expected too especially where winds fall light. However, having highlighted some negativity the upside is that all areas look like staying dry for a week or so at least with just the risk of a few showers as the ridge shows signs of weakening somewhat later in the period. The threat of more widespread thundery showers from continental Europe has receded somewhat for now but not completely eliminated and developments to the South will have to be watched later next week. So all in all though things would of been better with the High positioned further East over or to the East of the UK we have to make do with it where it's programmed to be and for many in the West and SW where the highest temperatures are likely next week few complaints should be heard from there and for all areas next week's weather going on this morning's output continues to show a marked improvement over what many of us have seen of late. Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 4th 2015

I've always found that when High pressure parks West of the UK at anytime of year clear skies are a thing of night times and first thing in the mornings with an infill of convective but flattening cloud through the warmer hours of the day making things pleasant rather than anything better but who knows things might be different this time.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 3RD 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening Westerly airflow is blowing across the UK with pressure rising from the South over the next 24-48hrs. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to blow across Northern Britain from the West and will do so for another three or four days before migrating North to Iceland where it remains for some while before moving back South over the British Isles late in the period as pressure falls. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure moving NE close to the SE of the UK with a brief flirtation with very warm and humid air before low pressure enar NW Scotland brings cooler and fresher air across all areas in time for the weekend. High pressure is then shown to build and anchor close to NW Britain from early next week with fine and dry weather shown for all with a stiff East wind over Southern England and warm temeratures in the West and NW. Later in the run pressure falls from the North for a time allowing some showers in the North as the High recedes away SW temporarily before rebuilding at the end of the run with renewed fine weather spreading back for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is broadly similar to the above with a large High settling to the West and NW of the UK with fine and settled weather for many. A cool breeze could temper temperatures in the East with the warmest conditions towards the West and NW and a few thundery showers could affect the South and SE at times perhaps more extensively for a time mid period before High pressure re-establishes strongly again just to the west of the UK by the end of the run. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the main theme remaining a High pressure based one in two weeks time with the positioning of it likely to lie close to the West or SW of the UK with a ridge across the UK with fine and bright weather as a result. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows humid air being swept away East at the weekend as High pressure builds strongly across the North of the UK later in the weekend with a NE or East flow setting up across the far South delivering fine and sunny conditions with the warmest weather likely to develop across the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show another windy and wet period for the NW over the end of the week while the SE see a humid puddle of air drift across with some thundery showers possible. Pressure is then shown to rise frome the SW and West of Britain over the Weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today follows the theme of the aforementioned models in building pressure behind a front crossing East on Friday taking away warm and humid air to the East and replacing it with clear and fresh air over the weekend with a cool NE breeze over the South later and fine and sunny weather for many with the warmest weather likely in the West and NW near the centre of the High pressure area by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM is in unison with other output too as it builds pressure across the UK over the weekend with fine and settled conditions developing after a cool and breezy few days across the North and the odd thundery shower towards the SE on Friday. Next week then looks fine and warm with sunny spells and a cooling breeze from the east or NE across the far South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today shows High pressure building too just to the West of the UK next week with fine and warm weather for many as a ridge lies across Northern Britain. Later in the week it slips South and declines as pressure steadily falls across the British Isles from the North with some rain or showers reaching the North towards next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a ridge across the UK with fine and settled weather still as a result. Pressure is a little lower over Europe suggesting that there could be a thundery shower or two at times creeping North or NW across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for High pressure to develop close to NW Britain remains but with less chance of it migrating to the NE this morning longer term. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 85.8 over UKMO's 81.6 pts with GFS at 81.6. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.1 over 44.2. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.9 pts to 23.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS There is strong support again this morning for High pressure to become the dominant player in the UK weather over the next two weeks once we clear the messy synoptics of the next few days which offer some humid and potentially thundery conditions for the SE for a time Friday and some cooler and windier conditions elsewhere with some rain in the NW. A surge of cooler and fresher air then reaches all of the UK on Saturday which then warms steadily as High pressure builds from the west and settles close to the west and NW of the UK next week. If I was to be picky I would suggest the HIgh is not best placed to bring particularly warm temperatures to some parts of the UK with the flow from the North over the East pegging temperatures back here somewhat and also with the threat of a fresh East or NE breeze across the South too it may feel somewhat cool here too if cloud amounts are a feature. In addition there is always a threat of the odd thundery shower moving North or NW from Continental Europe over the South though this doesn't look a widespread threat between the outputs this morning. All this taken into consideration it may well end up that the North and West of the UK become quite warm and sunny with the Highlands of Scotland often seeing the best weather and highest temperatures in these type of synoptic setups. Looking further forward High pressure is shown to retrogress somewhat later with less chance of it shown this morning to drift to the East. Instead it looks like it could pull back SW or West to allow some cooler and more showery conditions to develop from the North at least temporarily, this shown from both GFS and ECM this morning. So all in all it looks like that real heat and humidity will remain on hold which may be a disappointment to some that like that sort of weather after what charts were showing some days back but on the plus side a lot of dry and fine weather is looking likely for most of the UK for some time at least with some warmth for all especially in the West and NW which will be a marked change for those areas that have most been affected by the incessant coolness of Atlantic cool West and NW winds of late. Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 4th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 2ND 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong Westerly flow slowly decreasing later as the depression responsible moves slowly away NE over the Northern North Sea. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions too for some especially in the West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow blowing across the UK currently backing Southerly over the coming days before becoming light and less focused on position over the following weeks. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a change in the weather on the way for the UK. Low pressure will gradually become less influential as the Jet flow responsible weakens and High pressure gradually moves in from the West. There is a spell of warm weather late this week for the SE, quickly displaced by cooler fresher air as the High establishes. The rest of the run shows High pressure near the North of the UK with Easterly winds in the South. Fine and quite warm weather is likely moreso later as winds turn more SE and the risk of thundery showers reaches the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a similar pattern with High pressure gradually developing just to the West or NW of the UK. the problem with this run is that it never develops in a favourable enough position to prevent cool North or NE winds from blowing across the UK and while dry for all for much of the time some cloudier and cool breezes are possible and some showers in the SE too as pressure falls for a time on the continent.. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a real mixed bag of options, so much so than no real clear definition of where synoptics will lie at the two week time point can be determined http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows things improvong steadily now for the rest of the week. However, 1 more trough crosses East on Friday bringing a fall in temperatures after a brief warm and humid period. Thereafter winds become Easterly in the South and rather fresh at that while the North sees the best of the dry and bright weather in light winds as High pressure builds across these areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the tentative improvements later in the week as High pressure gradually replaces the trough laden latitudes surrounding the UK currently. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today continues to prefer a more changeable period being maintained over the next 10 days and while some decent weather could be enjoyed for all at times a change to more unsettled weather with rain at times, some possibly thundery never looks that far away as small but influential Low pressure replaces ridges of High pressure at other times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme of GFS this morning building pressure up to the NW of the UK next week setting up a strong Easterly flow across the South and bringing fine and dry conditions to the North with the best of the sunshine there-all this after a period of unsettled weather over the weekend as Low pressure edges NE in rather humid air ahead of rather fresher conditions thereafter. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM's theme does look like the most popular theme between the models today as High pressure eventually builds up to the NW of the UK with a ridge across the North and an Easterly flow across the South. After a slightly unsettled end to the week and weekend things look like becoming dry everywhere but cool near eastern coasts with the best of the sunshine in the West. Then as High pressure migrates East towards Scandinavia late in the run a thundery breakdown moving up from the SW looks possible later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows slack pressure maintained over the UK in 10 days time with High pressure the main player with a lot of dry and settled weather with the risk of thundery showers in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for High pressure to develop close to NW and then North or NE of Britain in the longer term is quite strong this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 86.0 over UKMO's 81.9 pts with GFS at 81.9. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.2 over 43.8. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 28.1 pts to 21.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The main theme this morning appears to be for a trend towards High pressure to build towards the NW of the UK with an Easterly flow developing across the South. In the interim period the burst of high temperatures earlier expected later this week seem all but dead in the water now and although it will feel a marked improvement on events of recent days, warm and humid is the way I would describe it briefly before fresher conditions return South over all areas at the weekend as the High to the NW builds. Then next week it will be dry and bright for many and become warm in places, especially towards the West and North while a nagging East wind could bring rather cool conditions near North Sea English coasts. There could also be a trend towards pressure to fall over mainland Europe sufficiently enough at times to feed a risk of thundery showers up into Southern Britain at times later in the period. However, all that said it does look like a pattern change is still on the way as the Jet stream finally loses much of it's impetus and something more akin of what we should expect at this time of year looks likely for all over the next week or two as High pressure looks likely to settle close to the NW, North and later the NE of the UK and while that might not bring record breakingly high temperatures across the UK pleasantly warm conditions for many should be possible under these synoptics. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 3rd 2015

I'm in Fuengirola Spain for the time being while my family look after things at home but I'll continue to supply reports to you each day with just the times being a bit later than usual for the most part. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 1ST 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A unseasonably deep depression crossing close to NW Scotland will drive active troughs of Low pressure across the UK in very strong SW winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow moving NE across the UK over the coming days. Eventually it shows signs of buckling and weakening as it tries to migrate to latitudes further north of the Uk for a time next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows deep low pressure slowly giving way to a day or two of warm and humid weather before a breakdown from the SW returns more changeable conditions before and over next weekend. High pressure then forms to the West of the UK for a time bringing cooler, fresher and drier air before the pattern breaks down again to Atlantic Low pressure close to Northern Britain late in the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control in many respects follows the course of the operational as cool weather returns after a couple of warm and humid days late this week. The pattern then shows High to the West and relatively cool North or NW breezes down over the UK before Low pressure gradually reasserts authority towards the end of the run from Scandinavia. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a real mixed bag of options, so much so than no real clear definition of where synoptics will lie at the two week time point can be determined http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows things gently improving from midweek as the strong and unstable Westerly airflow prior to this is replaced by light winds and warm temperatures across the South although unsettled conditions look like remaining over the North and West with the warmest conditions restricted more towards the SE where thundery showers could occur on Friday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the tentative improvements later in the week as High pressure sucks warm and humid air into the South and East for a time before Atlantic fronts erode it again from the West by the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today looks very changeable in stature this morning as it indicates spells of unsettled weather under low pressure alternating with short spells of High pressure based conditions when some fine and warm conditions could be enjoyed for all between rain and showers.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM never look very dynamic with it's weather patterns over the next week with the SE at risk of both thundery showers and some of the best conditions too under bith Hiugh and lower pressure periods. The NW is shown to be more commonly changeable and rather cooler through the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM doesn't look too bad this morning with a lot of very warm air flirting with the South at times over the coming week. There could be some thundery rain at times as various trough interact with the flow and give rise to some cooler conditions more prevalent late in the period as winds swing more Northerly http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN N/A. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather looks to be somewhat more diluted from some of the output currently. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 85.9 over UKMO's 82.0 pts with GFS at 81.7. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.5 over 44.5. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 28.7 pts to 22.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS There has been some watering down of the overall shift towards warm and sunny weather since my last report with more interventions from either cooler air from the North or NW or unsettled conditions moving in from the West. The main concern to me looks the desire to eventually have High pressure shifted out to the west of the Uk with further cool Northerly winds likely as a result across the UK later in the period. While this all might seem doom and gloom talk on the face of all there is still a shift towards at least a period of warm and humid conditions especially the further SE you live within the UK which by the same token could give rise to the greatest risk of thundery rain here too. The further North and West you travel though would likely see morespells of cloud and rain from depressions moving NE across the North and the resultant rise of pressure behind one of these at the weekend could give rise to the cooler Northerly winds I mentioned earlier. Still the ensembles still point to a very mixed picture with no clear trend shown to where we might be synoptically two weeks from now so hold on to your horses would be my advice as I expect to see more shifts of emphasis between warm and settled and cooler and unsettled to be shown in the upcoming days between all models. Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 2nd 2015

Thanks for those kind words.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY MAY 30TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure will cross the UK from the West today followed by troughs of Low pressure moving East and NE over the UK tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later but with the risk of thundery showers.. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow moving NE across the UK over the coming days. Then later next week the flow's belt shifts more towards the NW and weakens across Scotland before breaking up further by next weekend to lead to a much lighter flow ill defined and sinking well South across the Atlantic before returning to the present position towards the end of the period and strengthening somewhat again. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows strong West or SW winds over the coming 3-4 days with rain at times as Low pressure areas cross East just to the North of Scotland carrying troughs East over all parts with rain and showers at times. Conditions then improve under rising pressure as warm and humid air moves up from the South around High pressure formed to the East. However, it isn't long before the weather breaks down into thundery rain and showers in the South and West as the warmest air retreats back towards Europe and an eventual return to more changeable conditions with rain at times in SW winds under Low pressure is set up at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control today shows a similar evolution to the operational run in the first week though the breaksown to thundery weather over the South and West is less pronounced in this run. Winds do become Easterly as Low pressure resides over Europe with temperatures on the decline somewhat through the second week as winds back North-east and then Northerly as High pressure migrates out into the Atlantic again. A lot of dry weather would likely be maintained especially in the West where the warmest weather would end up being. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today are a mixed bunch but favour a High pressure ridge in varying degrees of strength and position maintaining set fair conditions across the UK in relatively light winds and temperatures near or above average in the South. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows things gently improving from midweek as the strong and unstable Westerly airflow prior to this is replaced by light winds and warm temperatures across the South at least by the end of the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain a very trough laden airflow from a Westerly point for the coming three or four days before the flow weakens across the Atlantic and pressure builds from the South across Southern Britain soon after midweek. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows a muted improvement later next week as pressure builds from the South along with an injection of warm and humid air. However, very quickly this is shown to breakdown as a thundery Low becomes absorbed by more unstable Atlantic air to bring cooler and changeable conditions back for a time before another attempt at more settled conditions arrives later as High pressure builds NE across the North at the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows better weather for a time later next week with the main feature being the much better temperatures than of late especially across the South and East. It too shows a breakdown to thundery rain as a trough crosses East later next week with fresher air returning into the West for a time next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM completes the set with agreement on warm and humid conditions developing late next week as High pressure moving up from the South settles things down briefly. Low pressure is also shown to move up into Biscay and the continent in general later as High pressure drifts to the NE of the UK with humid air blowing lightly across the UK promoting thundery showers in places especially the South affecting other areas too by Day 10 as cooler fresher air arrives from the SW behind the thundery trough. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night maintains a ridge of High pressure across the UK from the SW maintaining largely humid and warm or very warm air with the potential risk of heavy showers in slack pressure gradients across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather a week from now remains but with a continuing trend towards possible thundery or more unsettled weather across the South later. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.5 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 85.9 over UKMO's 82.2 pts with GFS at 81.5. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.4 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.9 pts to 23.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The models remain in good support of a shift of emphasis away from cool and unsettled conditions to things considerably warmer from the middle of next week, especially across the South. I hesitste to say settled though as there is strong evidence that in a relatively short period of time a surge of humid air from the South with falling pressure will generate showers and thundery rain from the end of the week. Thereafter, things look rather more uncertain with some output showing a more unsettled theme again with Low pressure close by and rain at times which as a result would bring temperatures down to rather fresher levels again. However, having said that there is also support for High pressure to settle to the North of the UK with any unsettledness held more towards the South and even the output that suggests a return to cooler conditions late show High pressure rebuilding again after a short hiatus. Whatever happens it looks at long last that the cool and unsettled Westerly or NW pattern type of late will soon be replaced by more seasonal temperatures and a general better complexion felt by all that it is Summer. Night's should become considerably warmer than of late too and in any prolonged sunny spells between any thundery showers it should feel very warm late next week and while we may not be looking at long lasting dry conditions with wall to wall sunshine the higher temperatures between the showers should give us little cause to complain against recent standards. NOTE: There will be no report from me tomorrow morning. Hopefully back on Monday morning at maybe a slightly later time than normal.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 29TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will cross Southern and Eastern Britain today followed by a NW flow later, showery in the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow undulating across the UK for the next 3-4 days before the flow shifts slowly towards the NW of the UK blowing in a NE direction and later still becoming weak and broken in pattern well away to the NW of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows Low pressure from off the Atlantic well in control of the UK weather for the enxt 3-4 days or so bringing rain and showers to all areas in cool and windy conditions. Then the weather improves from the South later as pressure builds North. Then pressure becomes High to the North of the UK but it isn't long before Low pressure eases up from Southern Europe to affect Southern Britain through Week 2 with warm and humid conditions and thundery rain ir showers widely across the South later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control not available at time of issue this morning. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters not available this morning at time of issue. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning is rather disappointing in that it shows Low pressure remaining in control well into the middle of next week with a centre over us early in the week and then to the NW later keeping rain and showers going for many under Atlantic winds from a SW quarter with the most rainfall and blustery conditions becoming more restricted towards the NW by the end of the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show no real evidence of much of an improvement in the offing even at day 5 with a concoction of troughs and Low pressure to the North and NW of the UK continuing to drive bands of rain and showers across the UK in generally cool conditions for the time of year. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today follows a GFS type theme in showing better weather appearing across the UK later next week following a wet and cool, windy period earlier in the week. The improvement in weather in terms of dry weather proves short-lived across the South as the warm and humid air developing then and falling pressure triggers thundery showers or rain at times over the second weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM looks closer to UKMO in it's theme maintaining a weakness to the NW of the UK a week from now and although much weaker than currently enough influence from this could give rise to occasional rain still especially to the NW whereas Southern Britain become drier and warmer with increasing humidities. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM looks reasonably encouraging this morning as it replaces the current cool and unsettled period with Low pressure close by with High pressure building to the East and NE of Britain in the second half of the run with attendant fine and warm if breezy weather for many but with an increasing risk of thundery showers in the South and SW as pressure falls over Biscay. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night maintains a ridge of High pressure across the UK from the SW maintaining largely fine, warm and dry conditions for many by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather a week from now remains but with an increasing trend towards possible thundery weather across the South later. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 86.4 over UKMO's 82.4 pts with GFS at 82.0. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.3 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.2 pts to 23.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The models continue to indicate an improvement on the way probably from the middle of next week. UKMO does look a bit concerning on it's day 6 chart and it would be nice to have it on board of the main camp of showing High pressure building up from the South later next week bringing some much needed proper summer warmth and humidity. That humidity could be a problem though as there is increasing support for thundery low pressure to edge up from Europe later in the period with thundery rain and showers affecting Southern Britain later. We must not of course forget that we have a lot of weather to get through first in the shape of cool and windy conditions with rain and showers at times as Low pressure streams in off the Atlantic along with attendant active fronts. However, with a weakening Jet flow later next week and a repositioning of it to a point well NW of the UK things should improve markedly from those of present and if the price to pay for some real Summer warmth is some thundery outbreaks I think many will take that as long as any Easterly drift crossing the North Sea restricts the amount of low cloud onto eastern coasts to the coast itself. Next update from 08:00 Saturday May 30th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 28TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A Westerly flow across the UK will persist with a trough of Low pressure crossing Central and Southern parts of the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by a brisk NW flow later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows an unusually strong Jet flow crossing East over the Atlantic and the UK and this is shown to persist for another 5-7 day if anything strengthening somewhat early next week. The trend thereafter is for the flow to ease North across Scotland and weaken too eventually breaking up and becoming ill defined as pressure rises. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows an improving period of weather developing across the UK from the moddle of next week. In the interim period the weater will be far from pleasant and quite inclement at times as Low pressure just to the North sweeps active troughs East across all areas at times with wind rain and showers affecting all areas at times. Then High pressure eases up from the South with fine and dry conditions developing along with more seasonably warm temperatureslate next week and in Week 2 with High pressure likely to lie over or close to the North with the best conditions here and the risk of a few showers at times in the extreme South or SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run looks broadly similar to the operational this morning with the theme between the two showing rather less potency across the South of the UK early next week of the Low pressure shown further North than recently. The Control run then shows High pressure in control over or near the UK thereafter with fine and warm conditions developing for all. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today are quite confusing at first sight with a lot of slack pressure gradients shown across the Atlantic and Europe in general. All this made up from different options of position of High pressure in relation to the UK but still with the fundamental message that fine and dry conditions are likely to prevail over the UK in two weeks time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning continues to show Low pressure further South than GFS taking a centre across the UK early next week and maintaining cool and unsettled weather across all areas up to the middle of next week before hints of a rise of pressure from the SW are shown on the day 6 frame shown below. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a plethora of troughs affecting the UK between now and the middle of next week driven by Low pressure areas moving across the UK or just to the North periodically from the West in cool Atlantic winds. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM shows Low pressure sinking into the UK early next week from the NW with showers or longer spells of rain affecting all areas at times over the weekend and start to next week. Thereafter pressure slowly recovers, on this run from the SE allowing a humid Southerly flow to develop in association with Low pressure over the Atlantic and drawing the risk of heavy, thundery rain to feed North across the UK before things finally looking like settling down more widely by the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the Low early next week digging deep into the UK as it transfers East by midweek bringing cool weather with wind, rain and showers across the UK ahead of a marked improvement in both temperatures and better weather in genral as High pressure builds from the South later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM also shows the Low across the UK early in the week with rain and showers foremost in the weather in cool and windy conditions. Then a tentative build of pressure develops midweek affecting the South first and then all areas later as High pressure from the Azores eventually is shown to ridge all the way across Scotland to Scandinvia later with a NE flow across the South with dry, fine weather for all but temperatures likely to be somewhat lower than elsewhere in the SE on this run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night still looks favourable for dry and reasonably fine conditions to look likely to be the favoured option for the UK in 10 days as High pressure from the Azores ridging across the UK is maintained. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather a week from now remains with pressure expected to rise from the South. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.6 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 86.8 over UKMO's 82.4 pts with GFS at 82.2. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 52.2 over 45.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.1 pts to 25.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The main focus of the models this morning is the vast change from the synoptics across the UK early next week to those expected just 1 week later as the message remains that after a period of inclement and unseasonably windy and unsettled weather early next week the pendulum swings to more settled and warm weather with sunny spells under synoptics that generally mean that once established they can tend to last for some considerable time. So after a generally somewhat cool May with some areas having a wetter month than usual too June looks no better to start with as cool Atlantic winds, rain and showers occur everywhere ealy in the month. However, after a few days High pressure building from the South shown by all output brings a change to fine and settled weather with some warm sunshine for all. The most popular consensus is for High pressure to generally end to the North of the UK with an Easterly flow towards the South. If this sets up as some output shows warm air over the continent should feed West across the UK but as this crosses a cool North Sea we will have to watch for sea haar and fret to affect Eastern coasts making for cool dull conditions here while in addition thundery showers could ease up from the South of Europe later as lower pressure looks like being likely there but all in all it looks like an improvement is still very much on the cards between the models this morning with just the fine detail of positoning of High pressure likely to be instrumental in determining day to day degrees of warmth and sunshine in any one place across the UK. Next update from 08:00 Friday May 29th 2015

..and it still will. It's to what degree of improvement that's open to doubt within the models at the moment.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 27TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK later today and tonight before a cool and showery Westerly flow follows. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A spell of changeable weather in the first week followed by warmer and more settled weather in Week 2. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continue to blow West to East close to the UK over the coming days and again near the start of next week. Later in the run the flow weakens and becomes more ill defined as pressure builds for a time from the South. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a spell of breezy and for a time late in the weekend and start to next week a distinctly Autumnal feeling couple of days as a strong jet flow across the UK powers up a deep depression across the UK with rain, gales and squally cool conditions for many lasting until midweel when a slow improvement moves up from the SW, last to reach the North late in the week. Thereafter, things become much more benign as no pressure system takes overall control with warmer and drier conditions with sunshine at times for all and the risk of showers in the South and SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a very similar output for the two weeks with the same inclement Low pressure affecting all of the UK in the first days of next week. Then this run shows a more full hearted attempt at bringing High pressure and subsequent warm conditions to much of the UK as High pressure builds across and to the NE later with warm continental air and just the risk of a thundery shower across the South late in the period. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today continue to project High pressure well in control of the UK weather in two weeks time with a large High pressure centred close by with fine and warm conditions as result. Just 5% of output shows the risk of a deep Atlantic Low with warm Southerly winds and some thundery rain in the far West. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows cool and unsettled weather at the start of next week with cool and strong West or NW winds and showers, heavy at times in association with Low pressure close to NE Britain by Tuesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show the UK governed by a Westerly Atlantic airflow carrying occasional troughs and depressions East just to the North of the UK with troughs carrying rain followed by blustery showers to all areas especially later. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM paints a similar picture in relation to the deep Low crossing England early next week, exiting only slowly away later in the period with better conditions under higher pressure trying desperately hard to move up from the South but never really reaching the far NW in the period and with the threat of some thundery rain in the SE as the cooler plar maritime air across Britain mixes with warm continental air on Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM has next weeks Low further North than most other output and follows on with a much more meaningful build of pressure across the UK by later next week. There would be a spell of rain then showers in blustery winds early next week before fine, sunny and warm conditions develop from midweek on. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM unfortunately backs the majority of the run bringing the deep Lo across the UK early in the week. Improvements are painfully slow and somewhat delayed than on previous output taking until the 10th day of the run to see pressure build sufficiently enough to bring more guaranteed dry and fine weather with warm sunshine as pressure finally becomes High across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night does maintain strong support for good weather across the UK by Day 10 under a strong ridge with fine and warm conditions for nearly all away from the far NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather after a week or so remains but is shown by most output to be somewhat delayed in arriving this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 86.9 over UKMO's 82.6 pts with GFS at 82.2. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 52.3 over 45.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.7 pts to 26.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The main message read from the models this morning is the uncertainty longer term of how well pressure recovers next week following the inclement conditions from the nasty little Low programmed to attack all of the UK early next week. There is currently a strong Jet stream for this time of year in the vicinity of the UK and over the next 4-5 days this winds up a powerful and unseasonal depression early next week, this following an already cool and unsettled period in the days leading up to this. After the spells of rain, strong winds and heavy showers from this we have to wait and see how the legacy of this influences pressure rises from the South and SW previously shown for the middle and latter days of next week. Most output do still show this rise of pressure still sufficiently strong enough to ensure a settled spell of weather for many with warm temperatures developing late next week but this is a delay in what was being shown only yesterday and synopses to the NW from some output doesn't always look too preventative of Low pressure attacking any rise of pressure from the NW at least in the NW longer term with High pressure resultantly nudged more towards the East, NE or SE. I think the main message is until the early weeks storm's transit is known and confirmed cross model support on the day to day events following it will be unclear and differing one to another but I think there is still enough cross model support for an improvement from the middle of next week with the emphasis gradually shifting away from cool and unsettled to drier and warmer conditions for most but whether this will result in a 'high summer' type event looks a little more fractious from the operational outputs at least this morning. Next update from 08:00 Thursday May 28th 2015