Gibby

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 8TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression will move away East towards Scandinavia today with a ridge of High pressure moving in behind the NW airflow over the UK today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but driest in the South with some short warm spells at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow well South of it's normal summertime positioning undulating North and South across the UK several times over the next couple of weeks. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a North/South split in weather type over the next few weeks with High pressure tantalizingly close enough to the South at times for some fine and warm conditions. However, Westerly winds across the North throughout in association with Low pressure crossing East to the North will deliver occasional rain and showers in cooler winds for these areas. there will be some High pressure interludes in the North too notably in a weeks time but the displaced jet flow quickly pushes it away and brings all areas into cooler and changeable weather towards the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run maintains the general theme of the operational though day to day comparisons are well wide of the mark of the other. Nevertheless the theme of the North/South split in conditions holds good with the most of any meaningful rainfall restricted to more Northern areas while the South stays drier and brighter for more of the time. THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters for the 14 Day point show two options likely in the weather pattern in two weeks time. One has High pressure to the West and a cool but relatively settled Northerly flow across the UK or High pressure to the South as currently with a continuation of the North/South split in conditions. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning is not wonderful again this morning as after a fair start to the weekend the weather goes downhill and eventually cooler again with some rain for all as winds swing from SW to NW by early next week in association with a depression crossing East to the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the coming days followed by a Westerly flow across the UK, relatively weak in the South. With weak fronts in the airflow some occasional rain is likely almost anywhere but chiefly in the North for much of the time but the South on Sunday. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows another variation on the same theme as the rest with rather more rain at times for all at times including the South later as Low pressure and troughs edge across all areas from the West later. Temperatures will be best across the South with the coolest conditions across the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows no change to the message already laid down by the other output in maintaining a Westerly feed of wind from the Atlantic delivering some rain at times, mostly but not exclusively to the North with temperatures ranging from near average in the North to average or a little above at times in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today is not pretty and looks a lot like UKMO at the day 6 stage with an active depression moving East to the North and a cool NW flow sweeping down over the Uk with showers and rain a possibility for all especially in the North and East. This forms a catalyst for pressure then to build North through the Atlantic and keep winds in a cool Northerly quadrant over the UK at the end of the period and though mostly dry for many by then it could end up disappointingly cloudy and chilly in exposure. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening begins to show that there are an increasing amount of members who show a build of pressure to the West of the UK in 10 days with a slow trend towards a Northerly flow possible across the UK displacing the rather warm uppers across the South of recent output. As a postscript to this this morning's chart has strengthened that theme.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The only trend I can detect this morning is that winds could turn more Northerly in the latter stages of the period as pressure possibly shows signs of building North through the Atlantic in 10-14 days time 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 81.7 and UKMO at 81.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 51.5 pts over GFS's 48.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 31.2 pts to 27.8 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning I find myself reporting on a set of charts which differ wildly day to day beyond day 5 or so but still sing from a pattern of weather which doesn't look like changing any time soon. Pressure remains High to the South of the UK maintaining Europe in a pleasant Summer of weather with very warm or hot conditions locked in down there. For us we continue to lie on the Northern flank of this belt of High pressure which is unable for the most part to ridge North into the UK for any length of time before a Jet stream too far South dislodges any ridges back from where they came a few days later. A typical example of this is this coming few days when pressure builds across the South at least to give some fine and warm conditions for a time before the Atlantic wins back by Sunday and it becomes a case of 'as you were' thereafter. It doesn't mean complete doom and gloom though as there will be some fine and dry weather for all at times and in the South it could be occasionally warm. Then we have to look forward into the longer term projections to see if there are any signs of change there. What I can see is a possibility of it becoming no better for heat seekers as there seems growing confidence between the models that pressure may build North through the Atlantic later next week pulling winds into a Northerly quarter and while this might mean a continuation of quite dry conditions in the South and West winds from the North will peg temperatures back towards normal at best. It's all a case of clutching straws to find any way out of the current locked in pattern so I wouldn't say this change is a definite yet but at the moment I don't see any chance of a UK wide heatwave any time soon as the Jet stream forecast across the North Atlantic continues to look unfavourable so it's a case of pick and choose the short warm and fine periods in the South when they come as they might not last long before the next wave of Atlantic fronts arrive. Next update from 08:00 Thursday July 9th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JULY 7TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression will move East over Scotland today and away to the NE tomorrow. A cooler and showery West then NW flow will cover the UK after the clearance of a cold front out of the SE this morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but driest in the South and East with some warm spells at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to predict the flow to lie further South than is usual at this time of year, usually lying across the UK at a NW to SE axis in the next few days and again for a time in Week 2 with a displacement further to the North briefly as ridges cross Southern Britain. The flow pattern is much less clear later in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run yet again this morning shows little change to the overall pattern with the North/South split in conditions persisting as High pressure never lies far away to the South or West later. Fronts on the Westerly flow over the UK continue to bring occasional rain and showers to chiefly but not exclusively the North while the South sees some fine and warm interludes too. A slack North or NW flow late in the period is again hinted at this morning as pressure builds North through the Atlantic. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run follows the theme to which we have all become accustomed too throughout it's run this morning with South being best for the drier and brighter spells between occasional bouts of Atlantic rain and showers. THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters for the 14 Day point continue to point towards High pressure being parked out across the Atlantic in 14 days time with a resultant NW flow down across the UK. A third of members think that High pressure will be dominant enough to ward off a cool and showery NW'ly but the remainder seem to think that showers at least are possible with a cool fetch of winds across the UK from Northerly latitudes. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning is not as good as last night's run which indicated a strong push from the Azores High over Southern Britain from the weekend. Instead we have a flatter pattern with Low pressure close to the North and a Westerly flow across the UK. So rain at times seems the order of the day with the South seeing the best of the dry weather in any warmth. At least a little rain at times is possible even here though on this morning's outlook. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cool NW flow in the next few days giving way to a ridge from the SW over the South by the weekend. The UK lies mostly on the Northern flank of any ridge still allowing some influence across the UK from fronts with a little rain at times especially over the North. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows changeable weather persisting as generally Westerly winds prevail over the next week. Some warm and sunny weather from occasional builds of pressure seem likely across the South before the Atlantic Westerlies regain supremacy after a few days. It's not until the end of the run when a more potent build of pressure builds across the UK with fine and dry weather for most though even thn it looks like thundery Low pressure could arrive from the SW soon after day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains the Westerly theme of winds too with occasional troughs passing East over the UK with enough energy to ensure we all see a little rain at times between spells of drier and brighter weather. By the end of the run it looks more generally unsettled as a broad showery trough lies across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today looks quite poor if it's a return of high summer your after as it has strengthened it's theme on Westerly winds persisting across the UK throughout the run with spells of rain and/or showers as each trough passes or Low pressure to the North but with some drier pahses too especially in the South. It does bottle all the warmth and heat well to the South on this run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows fairly slack conditions across the UK with a slight bias towards Westerly winds and indifferent pressure gradients making for the risk of showers for all in temperatures at least not cool. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today has taken a step back away from any meaningful return to summer warmth on a UK wide scale but maintains it's desire to keep a Westerly flow across the UK overall. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 82.0 and UKMO at 81.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 50.1 pts over GFS's 47.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 29.9 pts to 27.9 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The weather over the UK over the next few weeks looks to be controlled by a Jet Stream which refuses to relocate to a latitude that it should be at this part of the year which is near Iceland. Instead it is predicted to lie across the UK in one form or another for some considerable time and preventing any true build of pressure from the South or SW (which is hinted at repeatedly) from lasting any more than a day or so before becoming displaced. So what does this mean in terms of weather? Well I can still say South is best over the coming few weeks as all the Low pressure remains across more Northern areas of the UK but this doesn't mean that the South will always be dry as troughs attached to these Lows will cross Southern areas too occasionally giving outbreaks of rain or showers. Temperatures will be mostly average over the North unless winds switch NW behind any depressions in which case it may feel rather cool at times. In the South temperatures will flutuate a bit as tropical maritime air alternates with cooler North Atlantic winds so here temperatures should range between normal and somewhat above. Unfortunately no cross model support looks that interested in showing any large UK based High pressure over the two week period so it looks like a case of the occasional good day sprinkled with some more indifferent ones as no set pattern looks like lasting long in any one place. So in Summary while it may seem that the models don't have a clue when showing day to day events in the next few weeks the pattern is more solidly set, with as a result a continuing changeable theme being the likely outcome of the weather as we move through mid July and I have no doubt that some folks will feel the weather being a bit of a let down given the time of year but all I will say to end is that it could be a whole lot worse. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday July 8th 2015

Hi everyone. Here is my latest report on the 00z Model Runs from GFS, UKMO,GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday July 6th 2015 " Sorry unable to provide links this morning" The Latest Situation. A warm front is moving NE over the UK today followed by a complex cold front tonight. Tomorrow will see a showery and cooler WSW flow across the UK. The 2 Week Forecast Headline Changeable with some rain at times but drier in the South and East with some warm spells. The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow mostly blowing much to far South in the next few weeks. It's flow remains across the Uk this week veering NW as a trough translates East. then after a brief shift North it returns South across the UK next week in association with Low pressure close to Scotland. The GFS Operational Run shows the pattern unchanged from recent days again this morning with some warm and dry conditions across the South at times as extensions of the Azores High cross close to Southern England only to be followed by brief Atlantic incursions of cooler air with thundery rain or showers at the transition point. The North closest to Low pressure off the Atlantic maintains largely changeable conditions with rain at times and here it will remain relatively cooler than conditions elsewhere. The GFS Control Run is very similar in it's first week or so with the best of warmth and dry weather across the South while the North sees more changeable conditions on a Westerly breeze. Then later in Week 2 a pattern change is shown as High pressure builds through the Atlantic switching winds to a cool NW or even Northerly with a mix of sunshine and showers for all. The GFS Clusters for the 14 Day point are almost universal in suggesting that a NW flow will be affecting the UK in 14 days time with Low pressure in varying degrees of proximity to the UK but most members showing cooler air flooding the UK from the NW with occasional rain or showers. UKMO this morning looks quite good as we move towards and over next wekend as it builds a strong ridge NE from the Azores across Southern Britain restricting influence of Atlantic winds and fronts to the NW whereas the South becomes largely fine, warm and sunny next weekend. The Fax Charts endorse the raw data well today with a ccoler pahse of NW winds and showers midweek giving way to warmer conditions late in the week and into next weekend with High pressure lying close to the SE with a warm front travelling NE over the NW with a little rain and humidity rising everywhere. GEM today keeps the current pattern going over it's 10 day span with High pressure always close to the SE or South and winds blowing from a West or SW point across the North and NW with occasional rain. A lot of rather warm and humid weather looks likely on this run across the South with just a very occasional interruption of rain on troughs crossing from the West, all this after a brief cooler and showery blip in this coming midweek period. NAVGEM maintains the status quo of current weather pattern with Westerly winds and occasional troughs delivering showers and some rain at times with some fine and warmer interludes in the South especially later in the period. ECM today sits on the changeable fence with occasional troughs crossing East in the otherwise Westerly wind delivering occasional rain in the South and more frequently in the North. This run does take a more GFS Control Run stance of switching winds to a cooler NW or North flow late in the run as pressure builds North through the Atlantic. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows slack Westerly winds and occasional rain across the UK with temperatures bordering above average especially in the South. The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 82.1 and UKMO at 81.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 48.8 pts over GFS's 46.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 30.3 pts to 26.9 pts from GFS. My Thoughts Once again today there seems little difference in the overall patterning of conditions over and around the British Isles over the coming weeks. The main thrust of the Jet Stream remains too far South to allow continental heat to move back over the UK in any meaningful fashion and while conditions will be far from bad in any one place any significant warmth and sunshine still looks rather brief and fleeting as Atlantic fronts move East to dislodge it quite quickly after it's arrival. As is usual in a Westerly flow South will always be best and there could be quite a lot of pleasant weather for much of the time but areas further North will have to pick and choose the best days as here Atlantic winds will bring more frequent bands of rain and showers at times. There is a something of a shift in some of the longer term output to build pressure across the Atlantic through the second week which would result in a shift of winds to a cooler NW or Northerly quarter for all. This is highlighted well in this morning's GFS Clusters, the GFS Control Run and the ECM operational today and while yet it is still too far out to call we need to keep an eye on this trend in future runs. In the meantime it's business as usual with the North/South divide remaining in place for some while yet and while it may not be high summer in the true sense of the word conditions could be far worse and I'm sure there will be some decent fine weather to be had for all regions in the coming two weeks but more especially in the South.

Thoroughly wet here at Bude this morning as a chain of very heavy showers trundle their way NE across the area. Signs of electrification too further down in Cornwall.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JULY 5TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An unstable SW flow covers the UK with showery troughs spreading NE through the day and more Atlantic fronts reaching the West tomorrow moving East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times especially in the North and West. Warm in the South at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing NE or East over the UK for the next few days before veering NW to SE midweek. Having ridged North over the UK later in the week the flow then settles further too the North on an easterly track between Scotland and Iceland. At the end of the period the flow breaks up and become ill defined. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today is best described as showing a very changeable period over the next few weeks with some more unsettled and cooler phases with rain at times mixed with some fine and warm periods under High pressure crossing from the SW or West on several occasions through the period. The most unsettled weather will be in the North and the warmest conditions will be in the very warm category at times in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run although slightly different in day to day events maintains a very similar and changeable picture. A lot of dry and occasionally very warm weather looks likely in the South but this will be interrupted by showery and perhaps thundery troughs displacing the warm conditions at times for something somewhat cooler with the process repeating again thereafter especially over the North. THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show a split with some showing a slack northerly with High pressure out in the Atlantic with some heavy showers floating South while the remainder maintain High pressure to the SW with some fine weather while a few bring Low pressure closer to the North with the westerly flow brisk and unstable across the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a cool phase of weather between Tuesday and Thursday with a mix of sunshine and showers, heavy and thundery by day. A ridge of High pressure is then shown to build on Thursday and Friday with warm and sunny weather for a time especially in the South before another thundery trough moves East into the warm air next weekend returning cooler air off the Atlantic once more behind it. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of troughs crossing West to East over the UK this week with progressively cooler and breezy weather in two. Pressure builds through Thursday and Friday as a ridge crosses East with a warm front approaching the West of the UK from the West by the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today looks quite good for the South as a lot of warm continental air periodically wafts up across the UK but made temporary by troughs of potentially thundery Low pressure soon following each surge of warmth. The North lies in the more changeable and traditional Atlantic air for most of the period with rain at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also follows a similar theme of warmer and drier weather late in the week following the early to midweek rain and showers. It too then brings a potentially thundery trough East to give some rain for all at the weekend before fine weather returns soon after. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today shows nothing really significantly different than the rest with very warm air over the continent tantalizingly close for all of the time and occasionally wafting up into Southern Britain only to be met by occasional opposition from Atlantic breezes and fronts with potential rain, thundery at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart this morning looks like bringing the influence of Low pressure up to the North and NW of the UK rather closer in giving a greater risk of rain and showers across the UK with warmth still holding on in the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of South and East as best for warmth and occasional thundery rain while the North and West stand greatest risk of Atlantic borne rain at times. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 84.8 pts with GFS at 81.8 pts and UKMO at 81.8 pts too. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.7 over 46.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.2 pts to 26.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS We appear to have become in a set pattern across the UK for the coming two weeks. The basics of this is Low pressure to the North and NW far too close and very warm air locked in over Continental Europe and this pattern looks like persisting for some considerable time. Of course this doesn't mean that the same weather will occur over the UK day to day as the boundary zone between the heat of Europe and the cooler unstable Westerlies undulates across the UK for much of the period. So it looks like being cool and breezy for a time this week with some heavy showers before High pressure builds later in the week allowing some of that warmth over nearby Europe back up over the UK. It quickly becomes attacked by either thundery Low pressure from the South or West as the Atlantic winds regain some territory again next weekend. The longer range charts show little sign of altering this battle over Week 2 either with further pulses of warm and fine weather especially over the South before the next push of Atlantic air brings another threat of thundery rain through most parts. The one thing of importance to note as despite some negativity shown in my report this morning for much of the time in any one place the weather should not be that bad especially in the South with thundery rain possibly heavy though brief with a lot of fine weather in between. In the North things might be a little too much Atlantic based to share in much of the South's warmth but even up here some decent days are possible and indeed more than likely. Overall I think that temperatures will remain near average in the North after a cool blip in the middle of this week while the South sees the near average temperatures up to the middle of this week rise into the warm and very warm category again towards next weekend and probably again on occasion through Week 2.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JULY 4TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A thundery trough will move away North this morning followed by a fresher SW airflow across the UK tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather but occasional rain at times especially in the NW. Chance of thundery showers at times too towards the SE. Generally rather warm. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing NE or East over the UK for much of the coming period. It veers to a West to East flow at times before becoming weak and broken for a time in the middle of the period before strengthening again in Week 2 http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a generally NW/SE split across the UK for a lot of the time where the North and West continue to be the most changeable with some rain or showers at times whereas the South and East see the best of any dry and brighter weather with some warm sunshine at times. The period towards the end of next week though looks dry and fine for many as a ridge of High pressure becomes more dominant across the UK for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar route through Week 1 culminating in the ridge of High pressure next weekend. It then sends an unpleasant and unseasonal Low pressure across the UK in the second week with rain and strong winds for all before a more pleasant High pressure based summery phase moves in from the SW to end the run. THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters still support High pressure out to the SW in two weeks time with a NW flow across the UK with varying degrees of unsettledness and fine weather in equal measure across the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a cool Westerly flow across the UK towards the middle of next week with showers in places particularly in the North. High pressure then looks like building into the UK from the West by the second half of the week with drier and warmer conditions as a result. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air on a SW breeze through the early days of next week with troughs crossing from the West threatening some outbreaks of more persistent rain at times. The SE looks likely to stay the driest with warm weather still not far away to the SE. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows a cool and breezy week next week with some rain or showers on a blustery West then NW wind. A ridge of High pressure then builds in next weekend with some warmer drier conditions for a time which don't old for long before more Low pressure edges in from off the Atlantic across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM after a changeable phase early next week brings High pressure back up from the SW across the South of the UK later next week. This culminates in a re-run of what's just occurred in that a thundery trough moves NE across the UK next weekend and displaces the warmth somewhat. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today has a slightly changeable look to it with the theme of a changeable and cooler start to the week with rain or showers at times. giving way to a fine and warmer period as a ridge of High pressure extends down from Iceland. It then shows another push of Atlantic energy possibly dislodging the warmer and dry conditions developed again towards the end of the run with further rain at times chiefly to the North and West http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to look like maintaining warm air not far from the South but with Low pressure close to the North suggesting a West or SW flow with some rain chiefly in the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of South and East as best for the weather while the North and West stand greatest risk of rain at times. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 84.4 pts with GFS at 81.8 pts and UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.1 over 45.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.6 pts to 25.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS A slight step back is my opinion of the models today as I feel that the Atlantic is holding more influence across the UK than was shown yesterday. I still don't feel we are in for a particularly bad spell of weather but rather an indifferent one where the UK lies between the fine summery conditions held to the South and SE of us over Europe while the Low pressure areas and fronts lie across Northern and Western areas in particular with more regularity than I would like. The suggestion from this would be that there will be a lot of NW/SE split in the weather over the coming two weeks where SE is always best. There would however, be a period towards next weekend when fine and dry conditions would be more universal across the UK with some warm sunshine for all as a ridge from the Iceland area links with High pressure to the South for a time. Then through Week 2 a return to similar set-up to what we have currently looks likely with fronts invading the UK on occasion freshening things up and giving some more showery rain between the brighter periods. So all in all a rather changeable pattern is the message from me this morning but this does include a lot of dry and warm weather in the South and East at times whereas the North and West are most likely to see the coolest and most showery conditions especially early and in the middle of next week. Next update from 08:00 Sunday July 5th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JULY 3RD 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will move away NE as a thundery trough of Low pressure moves North across the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by a cooler and fresher SW airflow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather but occasional rain at times especially in the NW. Chance of thundery showers at times too towards the SE. Generally rather warm. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing across the Atlantic towards Biscay then turning NE over the UK. This pattern persists for a time before the flow veers West to East and possibly NW to SE over us later next week. In the outer reaches of the run the flow weakens in situ for a while before rejuvenating across the UK in a NE'ly direction in two weeks time. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows the very warm conditions remaining tantalizingly close to Southern Britain through the next 5 days or so while the rest of the UK more quickly become cooler and more changeable with some rain or showers at times in an Atlantic Westerly flow. The cooler air finally reaches the far South later next week while pressure rises again from the West. The second week then shows High pressure building and relaxing again periodically from the South ensuring that the weather remains generally quite settled in the South and very warm at times with any more unsettled conditions remaining most likely over the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar route although from the onset of the second week it is more bullish about High pressure settling things down across all of the UK then with some very warm and sunny conditions developing for all regions throughout Week 2 THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters look good this morning with the vast majority of members suggesting that the UK will lie under the influence of High pressure from the Azores with just a handful of members today going fo something a little more unsettled from off the Atlantic. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows weakening Low pressure across the North early next week with a slack Westerly flow across the UK. Pressure remains High to the South so the patchy rain and showers across the UK will be most prolific for the North with a hint of fine and warm conditions developing back across the UK later in the week looking possible. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air on a SW breeze through the early days of next week with troughs to the West threatening some outbreaks of more persistent rain by Tuesday, especially in the West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows a more changeable phase under cooler conditions on a Westerly breeze early next week. Pressure then rises with some fine and sunny weather for a time across the South and East where it is likely to become warm before a return to cooler Atlantic Westerlies is shown again for all to end the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a cooler and more showery phase early next week but this run tooshows High pressure re-establishing across at least Southern areas later next week with increasinag amounts of warm or very warm sunshine while any cooler and more unsettled conditions become confined to the far North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today continues the theme that cureently lies across the UK with spells of warm or very warm and sunny weather interrupted at times by thundery rain as cooler air invades from the Atlantic only for the cycle to repeat again thereafter. It does show a briefly more general cool off early next week as winds switch West or NW for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to look good with a ridge from the Azores close to the South of Britain and with warm uppers it looks like the chances of some very warm air still over the South looks high. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of plenty of fine and warm weather likely still with just brief interruptions from cooler and more showery phases, these chiefly in the North. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 84.3 pts with GFS at 81.6 pts and UKMO at 81.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 45.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.7 pts to 28.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS I'm overall not unhappy with the output this morning as it looks like the weather will remain quite slow moving with regard to changes over the coming weeks. True there is a strong suggestion that the weather will cool down for all early next week as winds tilt more West or NW for a time with some showery rain about too but this only serves to pump up new High pressure across the UK through the middle of next week to return fine and in places very warm weather again especially towards the South and East. I am glad to see that the suggestions of yesterday from ECM for High pressure to be positioned to the SW and a NW flow to become established has been dropped for now with the High pressure areas remaining or moving to a position to the South, SE or East and permitting warm feeds of Southerly or SW winds across the UK. It looks unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of recently though with the mid to high 20'sC looking more likely as there looks to be too much of a SW aspect to the wind to present a true Spanish Plume type event this side of the Channel in the next couple of weeks but nevertheless as Atlantic fronts move up against these high temperatures there is plenty of chance for thundery showers to break out at times especially towards the SE. So all in all reasons to be optimistic from the models this morning with South and East of the UK best as usual but even the North and West will share in some very pleasantly warm conditions at times between the showery phases likely there. Next update from 08:00 Saturday July 4th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JULY 2ND 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A thundery trough will move North across the UK today followed by a slightly fresher SW flow for a time before humid East winds return later tomorrow in the South along with a further thundery trough. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and more changeable with some rain especially in the North. Drier and warmer at times in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing North over the UK currently. Over the coming couple of weeks it remains close to the UK but veering more towards a SW to NE axis or even West to East axis late in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows the recent hot weather pulled back towards the extreme SE and South over the coming days before being largely eliminated altogether later in the period. The Jet Stream is responsible flowing more and more towards a less favourable for warmth SW to NE or West to East flow across the UK in association with Low pressure to the North and West. Rain at times seems likely though with High pressure never far away to the South of the UK next week the South could still find some warmth at times between very occasional showers. Later on though all areas look like turning showery in Westerly winds with nearer to average temperarures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the operational in theme this morning with just day to day variations in the distribution of rain bearing troughs and showery spells later. It also shows that temperatures will return to average levels for all once the last embers of the European warmth leave the SE next week. THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters continue to show mixed messages with nearly all members suggesting High pressure down to the SW with some or little influence across the UK so a mixture of dry and bright weather or cloudy with outbreaks of rain or showers in temperatures close to average given winds from most members are shown to be between West and NW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows the heat leaving the SE at the weekend with a much more changeable look about the charts for the start of next week with Low pressure over or near the North with Westerly winds for all delivering occasional rain and showers through on temperatures close to the seasonal average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air eventually winning the battle against the humid and very warm conditions across the SE in the coming days as Atlantic fronts push NE then East across the UK towards the beginning of next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows cooler air encroaching to all areas through the weekend and the start of next week with some showery rain likely for all. High pressure is then shown to nudge back towards Southern Britain later next week offering a return to something warmer and more settled again at least for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a slow transition to more of an Atlantic influence with some rain at times for all in a Westerly breeze. It should be noted though that Southern Britain never lies very far away from more Summery High pressure based weather held just to the South of the UK for now. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today follows the other models in gradually turning things cooler for all and not just the North and West through the weekend and next week. There will no doubt be some rain at times but probably not much in the South as Higfh pressure looks like building to the SW which would mean a return to cool NW'lies and large amounts of cloud while any rain is restricted more towards the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with a Low pressure up to the Northwest and High pressure to the SW with the light West wind gradually receding the warmth slowly away to the SE with time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to suggest cooler weather for all with time as the Atlantic takes control with generally Westerly winds, average temperatures and a little rain at times. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 84.3 pts with GFS at 82.0 pts and UKMO at 81.3 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.9 over 44.7. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.1 pts to 26.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS It seems likely now that we are slowly losing the influence of the continental heat that has affected parts of the UK in recent days. The change is a slow one with still some high temperatures to come in the SE tomorrow before a slow trend to push the high temperatures away to Europe gains momentum from the weekend. The culprit is Low pressure in the Atlantic which gradually moves towards Scotland sending cooler Atlantic borne winds across the UK. Troughs in the flow will bring rain at times next week and while fine, summery weather never looks like being too far away to the South at any point on this morning's output there is little sign of it making any big push back within the confines of this morning's runs. ECM is not so good this morning either as it shows a worrying sign of parking High pressure to the SW late in it's run and feeding relatively cooler NW'lies down across the UK in a similar way that afflicted June so much. If this morning's cooler evolutions are correct it's a good call from GFS today as it's clusters have been suggesting High pressure to migrate to the SW again in it's outer reaches for some time and with the support of ECM this morning it must be taken as a possibility of evolving. So what do we need to see the heat return. Firstly I would like to see the Jet stream move further to the North and NW of the UK rather than over us as is currently progged. In that way the Azores High to the SW or a European version to the SE could push Summer heat back our way but for the moment that's not looking likely. Secondly and alternatively I wouldn't mind seeing Low pressure slip further South in the Atlantic so that pressure could rise to the NE over the UK to set up a Scandinavian High and feed warm but not humid weather from Europe across the UK. This is the pattern which is best assured of a longer warm period that what we have recently encountered although I appreciate that eastern coastal counties folk would not like this pattern as much. Still we have what we have and while it's looking a lot cooler and fresher over the coming few weeks for many it is unlikely to be a washout and no doubt there will be some reasonable dry and warmish periods between the occasional showers. Next update from 08:00 Friday July 3rd 2015

DATA TABLE FOR RADSTOCK FOR JUNE 2015 LOWEST TEMPERATURE 2.8C(37F) on the 4th at 05:09 HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 28.6C(83F) on the 30th at 15:32 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 14.4C (58F) HIGHEST HUMIDITY 97% on the 25th at 06:18 LOWEST HUMIDITY 40% on the 7th at 18:45 WETTEST DAY 8.0mm(0.32inc) on the 22nd HIGHEST RAINFALL RATE 5.5mm/hr(0.22inc/hr) on the 22nd at 05:00 TOTAL RAINFALL 22.2mm(0.89inc) DRY DAYS 22 Days LONGEST DRY SPELL 9 Days (3rd-11th) HIGHEST PRESSURE 1035.0mbs on the 8th at 02:06 LOWEST PRESSURE 1000.0mbs on the 2nd at 05:11 AVERAGE PRESSURE 1019.8mbs PRESSURE RANGE 35.0mbs HIGHEST WIND GUST 25mph on the 2nd at 14:55 WIND BETWEEN S & W 7% WIND BETWEEN W & N 57% WIND BETWEEN N & E 20% WIND BETWEEN E & S 16% SUNNIEST DAY 13 hrs and 48 minutes on the 7th TOTAL SUNSHINE HOURS 189 hours and 12 minutes DAYS WITH NO SUN 1 Day on the 13th BRIGHTEST DAY 367.1w/sqm on the 30th DULLEST DAY 77.8w/sqm on the 13th DAYS WITH THUNDER None DAYS WITH HAIL None HOURS OF AIR FROST None DAYS WITH FOG VISIBLE None DAYS WITH SNOW None REPORT June 2015 was an unspectacular start to the Summer with temperatures and rainfall both below average. Temperatures were lower due to the persistence of the NW wind blowing down over the region. With High pressure out to the SW of the UK for much of the month meant few Atlantic fronts brought much in the way of rain with just the 22nd bringing the wettest day total of 8mm (hardly a soaking) out of the months total of 22.2mm. There were 22 dry days and there was generally plenty of sunshine which ended up above average for the month at around 190hrs. Nights were cold through much of the month but showed signs of reaching summer values at the end of the period. There was no strong winds, hail, thunder or any other unusual weather events reported through the month.

31.8C here at Kilmersdon at around 2:30. Fallen slowly since as wind has swung SW and beginning to introduce slightly fresher air.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1ST 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A hot SE flow over the UK will become replaced by a cooler and fresher SW flow behind a weakening thundery trough crossing East over the UK later today and tonight http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally warm or very warm weather in the South with a few thundery showers. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West spreading to some other areas at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a Northerly flowing Jet across the UK gradually veering to more of a SW to NE flow still in the vicinity of the UK next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a SE/NW spit over the next week or so with periods of very warm weather in the SE replaced on occasion by spells of thundery rain as incursions of cooler air repeatedly move down from the NW. A much more straightforward Summer changeable Atlantic pattern looks likely further to the NW with some rain at times but with drier and brighter spells too with this theme more extensively reaching the SE too by the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run looks very simialr during the first week with the final hoorah of heat leaving the SE in about a weeks time as the changeable cooler air over the North and West reaches here too later. Then through the second week this run shows a resurgence of UK based High pressure with increasingly warm and sunny weather returning to all areas by the end of the period. THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show mixed messages ranging from a ridge towards Southern Britain from the SW with fine and dry conditions prevailing or more changeable Atlantic based weather on Westerly winds in association with low pressure to the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a SE/NW split developing from the weekend following a thundery trough North across the UK on Friday. The current hot weather looks like dissolving for many in preference of cooler SW winds though the SE looks like hanging on to some very warm conditions for some considerable time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air attemting to displace very warm and humid air across the UK over the coming 5 days. It succeeds briefly on the first attempt and perhaps more convincingly on the weekend attempt. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows very warm weather never far away from Southern Britain on this run with the North and West seeing fresher and cooler conditions. No widespread thundery activity is shown after this week but no doubt some would occur should temperatures remain high in the South. It's not until the end of the run that more unsettled and cooler air makes it all the way across the UK with rain at times from the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too holds very warm air close to the South through the next week with further spells of sunshine and the occasional thundery outbreak. Further North and West the Atlantic SW'lies will maintain charge with fresh and bright conditions with just occasional rain.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today does show some success in getting the cooler air down to the South of Britain albeit next week before much success is achieved. So the South and East will see more warm and humid weather with the risk of thundery outbreaks before the cooler and more changeable conditions in the north and West from the weekend covers all of the UK by the end of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with a Low pressure up to the Northwest and very warm air never far away from the South of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to generally maintain a Summer pattern across the UK with the best of the warmth and fine weather in the South and East though there are strong signals for a cool down even here in Week 2. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.6. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 84.7 pts with GFS at 82.0 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.9 over 45.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 25.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The pattern of weather continues to be held on a knife edge at the moment as the Atlantic cooler air remains locked in battle with hot continental air, common at this time of year. On most of this morning's output certainly as far as the North and West of the UK is concerned the battle is pretty weak as the Atlantic looks like being largely in control over the next few weeks with occasional rain and some brighter interludes in between. Further South and East the forecast is far less certain as the heat over Europe remains stubbornly persistent and wafts back across Southern and Eastern Britain at times over the next week only to be met with resistence by successive cold fronts moving up against this block and creating the risk of thundery downpours for these areas at times and fresher air to follow. With time on this morning's output it does appear that the Atlantic eventually wins through and gives rise to cooler and more changeable conditions over the second half of the period for all of the UK but there is some conflicting support for High pressure to re-establish with a return to fine and very warm weather UK wide later and with rather less humidity it may feel better. So all in all the models remain finely balanced and wouldnt be surprised to see the models to show further pushes of hot air to be shown to waft up from the SE over the coming days output well into next week. Whatever happens changes in the pattern look slow and undramatic but for thunder and lightning enthusiasts they could well be in for a treat in the coming days and further into the future if these push backs of heat from the SE are allowed to continue. Next update from 08:00 Thursday July 2nd 2015

28.6C at 15:45 today. Not bad on recent standards. Clouding over a bit now as that mid level stability over Brest earlier moves North and expands.

Of more interest to the SSW is a cluster of instability over Brest throwing out a few lightning returns recently moving NNE

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 30TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An increasingly warm then hot SE flow covers the UK with a thundery trough edging in towards Western Britain tomorrow http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally warm or very warm weather in the South with a few thundery showers. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West spreading to some other areas at times . THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving North or NE over the British Isles over the next week or so. It ebbs and flows somewhat but has a trend to veer more towards a West or SW to East or NE trajectory with time. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows occasional periods of hot conditions across the SE over the next week and warm conditions elsewhere at times each time with cooler fresher air invading preceded by a period of thundery rain or potential storms. Then in the second week a more coherent push towards cooler and fresher weather looks likely with Westerly winds and rain at times especially in the North though still with some dry and warm conditions at times across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a similar pattern though it takes until well into the second week to see significantly cooler weather reach the far SE with a continuation of a lot of fine and dry weather down here while the North sees more occasional rain on a Westerly flow. THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show a lot of NW winds in two weeks time around an Azores High with significantly cooler conditions than currently with some showery rain at times especially across the North and East. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows very warm or hot weather to start the weekend before an active thundery trough clears NE on Saturday with fresher and cooler weather over the weekend in a SW flow with some further showery rain at times in the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air moving NE over the UK at the weekend though the 96hr and 120hr chart usually updated late last evening have not updated on my browser. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows very warm or hot weather breaking down at the weekend but never entirely leaving the far SE. It continues to show more incursions of heat next week towards these parts with warm weather at times elsewhere too with further thundery outbreaks possible as the Atlantic fresher air continues to fight back across the UK. High pressure never moves far away from Southern Britain too as an extension of Azores ridge at the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pulses of cooler and fresher air making it's way across the UK on occasion through the next week but the fine and very warm or hot conditions at the end of the week look like being the last of the very high temperatures for a time. A lot of fine and warm weather then predominates next week across the South with the cooler fresher westerly winds in the North delivering occasional rain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today shows hot weather at the end of the week being displaced by a trough of Low pressure introducing cooler and fresher Atlantic air. the precursor to this will be some thundery rain or storms especially over the east. thereafter fresher air holds more control across the UK with the heat held to the South. Some rain or showers are likely too at times but more especially across the North of the UK with winds settling into a cool NW'ly late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with Low pressure up to the North and very warm air never far away from the South of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to generally maintain a Summer pattern across the UK with the best of the warmth and fine weather in the South and East. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.3 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.0 pts with GFS at 82.4 pts and UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 45.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 26.1 pts to 21.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The general outlook remains very similar this morning with the heat of the coming days gradually relaxing away to the South after the end of the working week. The message is as before up to that point with some very high temperatures tomorrow and again on Saturday with a few thunderstorms briefly as the cooler Atlantic air begins to make inroads behind a couple of thundery troughs tomorrow night and Friday night. Thereafter it looks that the hot weather will more likely be held the other side of the channel while most of the UK-though pleasantly warm at times-see fresher Atlantic winds from the West keep warmth to more modest levels and restricted to the South as fronts further North crossing from the West bring occasional rain or showers at times. It never looks though that hot weather will be far away from the South and SE of the UK and some models demonstrate this by feeding it back into the South and SE at times and, while the build of High pressure building back across the South of the UK shown by last night's ECM has been removed this morning I'm sure it will feature in other runs over the coming days. It certainly looks likely that blisteringly high temperatures are a temporary feature but while there is nothing unpleasant shown within the models plenty of warm weather should be experienced for many over the next few weeks with just the occasional summer shower to freshen the air and always the chance of a rebuild of heat from the South or SE. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday July 1st 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 29TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An increasingly warm SE airflow will move North across the UK in the next 24-48 hrs as troughs of Low pressure near the far West move away North tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally warm or very warm weather in the South with a few thundery showers. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West spreading to some other areas at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed to the West of the UK over the Atlantic. The flow then returns North across the UK for the majority of this week before veering to a more SW to NE flow over the UK next weekend and beyond as the mid Atlantic Low pressure drifts more to the NE of it's current position to lie to the North and NW of the UK next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a very warm or hot week to come especially tiwards the South and East of the UK. Some scattered thundery showers within high humidity os possible but fresher air over the West and North will make inroads across the UK at times this week. A largely SE/NW split in the weather remains for some time into week 2 too with the SE remaining largely very warm and sometimes humid well into the second week before the generally cooler and more changeable conditions in the NW are shown to spread to all areas by the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a virtually identical pattern in the first week and start to the second before it diverges from it's operational brother in bringing new warm summer High pressure across Southern Britain later in week 2 with any unsettled, cooler and changeable weather mostly restricted to the North and NW next week. THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show High pressure out to the SW with the warmth having largely been pushed back away to the SE by then with some indication of showery Low pressure then lying up to the North and NE of the UK http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a very warm period of weather to come and hot in the SE with some incursions of cooler and fresher air slowly making progress East across the UK at times accompanied by scattered thundery showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support humid and sultry conditions to the East of Atlantic thundery troughs occasionally moving East across England and Wales from mid to late week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows very warm or hot weather developing through this week with the East and SE likely to show the highest temperatures. Some ingress of cooler and fresher air will affect the North and West at times and as this infiltrates into the East and SE at times it may be coupled with some thundery showers. A North/South split then develops next week with rain at times in the North with relatively dry and fine weather becoming restricted to the far South where it may still be warm or very warm at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pulses of cooler and fresher air making it's way across the UK on occasion through the next week but the fine and very warm or hot conditions from the middle of this week never look like becoming far away from the South and SE of Britain with any notable coolness and more changeable weather conditions restricted to Northern and Western regions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning looks the best of the bunch this morning if it's fine and sunny weather with high temperatures that floats your boat. This week sees the East and South especially seeing some high temperatures with high humidity at times sparking a few thundery showers. Cooler and fresher as with the other output does cross the UK at times but is pushed back North and West at times by the persistent heat over the continent. Then towards the end of the period High pressure forms across the UK to settle things down in the North and West too to leave all the UK with fine, sunny and very warm weather late next week http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with Low pressure up to the North and very warm air never far away from the South of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to generally maintain a Summer pattern across the UK with the best of the warmth and fine weather in the South and East. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.4 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 84.9 pts with GFS at 82.4 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.8 over 46.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 32.2 pts to 25.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS After the weekend and now that we are close to the much hyped heatwave across the UK this week it is nice to see that the models have come to agreement on the pattern for this week. All models show the very peak of warmth will lie across NW Europe and just affect the extreme East and SE through midweek with a rather cloudier, very warm and humid zone across Central areas of the UK where the risk of thunderstorms look greatest. Having mentioned thunderstorms it doesn't look as though they will be a widespread feature but where they do occur those affected will certainly know about them. The heat is looking more and more likely to come in two pulses, one towards midweek and again at the weekend with a period where many areas become a little cooler and fresher at the back end of this working week. As mentioned earlier the extreme SE and East will likely see temperatures well in excess of 30C and possibly 35C Wednesday and again towards the weekend. Elsewhere 25-30C is more likely and as the cooler air passes a more comfortable 22-25C looks likely. Nevertheless, these are all very impressive temperatures and nowhere looks like being cold over the next few weeks with even the NW seeing some warmer days between it's generally more changeable pattern with rain at times. As we look towards the later stages of the time period this morning most models support various methods of arriving at a North/South split in the weather where the South looks likely to hold on to some of the warmth generated this week. ECM is particularly impressive next week as it shows a nationwide spell of warm and sunny weather setting up under High pressure next week and it would be nice to see this enlarged upon over coming days. Still there is nothing alarmist about anything within the models this morning with even the thundery scenarios hinted at in earlier days watered down now to transient and very local downpours in association with the weak pushes of cooler air moving across from the West on occasion. Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 30th 2015

I think you'll be alright. As above it depends on where you are camping, near the coast and how far West. The South coast of Cornwall could be plagued by sea mist and low cloud whereas inland the high 20's C could be more likely under hazy sunshine. One thing to be aware of the SW could be at greatest risk of thunderstorms trundling up from the South later in the week.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 27TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lies across the UK today followed by a warm and cold front crossing East and SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming very warm next week with some thundery showers especially in the South and East. Cooler in the NW. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow currently blowing West to East across Southern Britain. Over the next few days the flow buckles North and then sets up a South to North flow close to Western Britain through next week before settling to a SW to NE flow across Britain in Week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a steady warm up over the coming days as very warm air from Spain is directed North and NE to the UK and mainland Europe from Spain. It doesn't last that long though in the UK before cooler air behind thundery troughs moves across the UK towards next weekend and introduces a more changeable Westerly flow with rain at times which gradually settles to a traditional Summer NW/SE split in conditions later in week 2 with the best conditions in the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run also shows a two pronged attack of heat from the South in the next week to 10 days. The first one doesn't look like lasting long away from the far East and SE before a thundery trough brings somewhat cooler air in for a time. The second attack next weekend could be more intense in the East before a shift towards the cooler and more changeable Westerly regime shown by the operational is reached later in Week 2, once more most likely preceded by a thundery breakdown. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show High pressure having declined by Day 14 with a more Atlantic influence to the UK weather with rain at times especially over the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a heat wave or plume moving up from Spain through this week. The East will see the highest temperatures but all areas look like sharing in some very warm and humid conditions this week. Scattered thunderstorms look likely in the West as cooler air attempts to move in off the Atlantic but without much success on this run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support conditions warming up next week as Southerly winds are drawn North from Spain. Humidities do look like being high with the risk of thunderstorms towards the SW shown to be perilously close by the end of the week as destabilisation is shown to the SW at the end of the run. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows very warm or hot weather developing through this week with little or no displacement over the rest of the period. Attempts to bring in cooler air at times from the West is shown on occasions but with scattered thunderstorms illustrated too with the high humidity levels for much of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM has shifted the heat slightly East of the Uk this morning with NW Europe seeing the most searing temperatures. However, plenty of very warm or hot eather for the South and the East of the UK too is shown with some thundery showers too especially in Western and Central areas later next week and then the SE next weekend.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning shows very warm or hot weather across the UK for much of it's 10 day period this morning commencing within the next 72 hours. It maybe that the core of the highest temperatures is somewhat further East today but humidities will be high and the risk of thunderstorms is very obvious this morning as weak upper air disturbances run into the hot air from the South or SW at times without much displacement of the heat. The run ends with a strong Summer anticyclone re-established across Southern England. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients and very high temperatures across the UK with Low pressure held out in the Atlantic. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to show a plume developing over or just to the East of the UK next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.5 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.3 pts with GFS at 82.9 pts and UKMO at 81.8 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.1 over 46.2. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.6 pts to 24.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The much talked about heatwave is still well and truly on the way this morning with perhaps a shift away from the staggering and blistering heat charts of recent days to the other side of the channel on this morning's run. Nevertheless, temperatures are set to soar as a plume of hot air from Spain crosses France and the UK and NW Europe in general through this coming week. The highest temperatures look like being across the East and SE where 33-35C is likely widely and local records could be at threat. For Western and Central regions the heat will be less intense but very humid in nature with temperatures more likely in the 25-30C bracket under hazy cloud cover and an ever increasing risk of thunderstorms drifting North from Biscay. GFS has then taken a more progressive route this morning displacing the heat for smething much cooler and more changeable through Week 2 with rain at times. ECM though shows much more resilience against any major change with very warm or hot conditions likely for the entire period and suggesting a rebuild of Summer High pressure across the South by Day 10. There is a lot of dotting the I's and crossing the T's in this morning's output but with some confidence we can look forward to a spell of very warm weather with temperatures likely to be the highest for some years in the East and SE. The longevity of the spell is the question mark this morning with some output showing a second surge of heat after a brief relaxation next weekend. For those that like or don't like thunderstorms there is good and bad news today as there could be many days when thunderstorms are possible and with such heat and humidity around they could be severe locally with a lot of rainfall. No one can deny that recent days model output has been truly staggering with regard to progged temperatures and although I believe we may be spared the very highest temperatures shown by them the charts will need to be watched with interest still as the event creeps ever nearer over the next few days. Next update from 08:00 Monday June 29th 2015

UV levels won't be greater because it's hotter but I concede it will be hard to keep sensitive skin covered under such temperatures. High UV factor Sunscreen a must I think.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 26TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening cold front will move East over the UK today with a ridge of High pressure building across the UK tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming very warm next week with some thundery showers especially in the South and East. Cooler in the NW. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow expected to blow East across the UK over the coming days up to and including the weekend. The flow then ridges North over Britain at the same time as troughing South over the Atlantic setting up a Northerly moving jet just to the West of the UK later next week before a return to a stronger more SW to NE flow across the UK at the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows several more days of changeable conditions with occasional rain from troughs moving East interspersed by dry and fine weather. Then pressure builds from the South and SE with some very warm air in tow, the extent of this on this run is restricted towards the South and East where some very warm and humid air will develop. Troughs though moving up against this heat from the West will trigger some thundery weather at times in the South and East and some rain elsewhere but the overall longer term theme remains for quite a bit of warm and sunny weather in the South and East with any rain most likely still towards the North and West http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows Europe becoming very warm and hot with the UK always lying on the Western boundary of this with Atlantic cooler air battling it's way against this at times, without much success. This means the East and South will often be very warm or hot from next week with occasional thunderstorms while the West sees somewhat cooler air with thundery rain more extensive at times. Later in the run the heat ebbs away to a fresher but slacker Westerly flow. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show High pressure largely dominant across or near the UK in 14 days time with just a handful of members showing anything particularly more unsettled with rain at times. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows high temperatures across the South and East next week as the Spanish plume affecting mainland Europe affects the South and SE of England too at times. Further North and West sees cooler air maintained with some troughing supporting the risk of some thundery rain or showers in places close to the heat with much mist and murk near Western and Southern coasts at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support conditions warming up next week as Southerly winds are drawn North from Spain. Humidities do look like being high with the risk of thunder moving North by Day 5. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM shows warm weather too developing next week as High pressure over Europe drives very warm and humid air North across the UK, principally the East and SE but to some degree elsewhere too. The air will often be de-stabilised by thundery Low pressure which will produce occasionally heavy downpours in the East and South before the end of the run finds cooler air having extended East across all of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows very warm and humid conditions across the UK from early next week with the heat proving stubborn to shift and possibly giving rise to some marked thunderstorms at times as heat and humidity from the West combine with the East still holding on to the heat 1 week from now. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning completes the set this morning also showing things becoming very warm and humid next week with the risk of thundery showers very much apparent as thundery Low pressure from quite early in the period attacks the heat from the SW. This lasts several days before a more meaningful push of cooler Atlantic air wins through late in the period with fresher conditions for all by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the West and NW of the UK, slack in nature and maintaining very warm air close to the SW with occasional thundery pulses likely to push NE across the SE at times with the freshest conditions towards the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to show a chance of a plume developing close to or just to the East of the UK next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.5 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.3 pts with GFS at 82.8 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 46.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.5 pts to 24.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS There remains a question mark on the extent of a Spanish Plume's extent and longevity across the UK next week. The one certainty is that the weather is going to warm up next week for almost all areas but most markedly so across the SE and East. Some very hot conditions could see temperatures top 30-32C across these areas if sunshine allows but there is a lot of support for humidity to quickly claim the dry and sunny Continental heat back to the other side of the channel and with a quick move over the UK towards instability and de-stabilisation in the middle and upper atmosphere across Central and Western areas meaning the risk of thundery rain and storms quickly becomes likely in places from midweek. Whether this means a quick departure of the plume is unclear with some ebbing and flowing of it's push East and back West again likely for some time. Longer term the models do seem to nudge the hot air even further away over Europe and others seep it away altogether with a more changeable and cooler Westerly flow likely by then but there is more than some evidence that warm and summery weather will never lie far away to the East and SE over Europe and chances of a re-run of the current plume as we move through July have got to be high under the developing synoptic pattern especially in the South and East of the UK. So summarising something for everyone is shown this morning with heat and sunshine promoting the risk of some rather nasty storms in places and the possibility of cooler and fresher air returning with time. Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 27th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 25TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge will be maintained today across Southern Britain while a warm front crosses NE over the North. This is then followed by a cold front moving in from the West across all areas tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, bright and possibly very warm weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some thundery showers in places. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow expected to blow East across the UK over the coming days up to and including the weekend. The flow then ridges North over Britain at the same time as troughing South over the Atlantic setting up a Northerly moving jet just to the West of the UK later next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows several more days of changeable conditions with occasional rain from troughs moving East interspersed by dry and fine weather. Then pressure builds strongly over and then to the East of the UK next week with rocketing temperatures in a SE flow. Low pressure to the West and SW is shown to spawn thundery showers and storms to Western and some Southern parts later in the week which then is shown to mark a slow decline in conditions and temperatures to a more showery and changeable pattern by the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar but with somewhat less influence on the thundery breakdown late next week and the subsequent change to more changeable conditions with a more gentle fall off in temperatures as winds switch from SE to more of a NW or West breeze. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show strong support for High pressure to influence the UK from a position to the East in a weeks time before the gradual return to more Atlantic based winds and some lower pressure sets up for the two week time period. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a build of pressure from the South next week transferring to the East with the associated plume nudged further East than was shown on last night's run meaning while warmer and humid across the South and East cooler air is shown to lie close to the West and North with a trough likely to displace the warmth soon after the Day 6 chart with some thundery rain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well just hinting at the rise in pressure by 120hrs to support a warm up from the South and setting up a change from the more changeable atlantic based theme currently. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM shows High pressure ridging up from the South early next week being absorbed by a general rise of pressure to the North. This sets up a SE or East flow across the UK and as the warm and humid air present over the UK destabilises from the South late next week the risk of thundery rain and showers spreading North across the UK increases with time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a NW to SE split in the weather next week with a lot of very warm and humid air with the risk of storms at time across the South and East while the North and West stay somewhat cooler with the risk of occasional lighter rain at times as the Atlantic holds some influence. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning shows the battleground next week I highlighted yesterday as High pressure builds North just to the East of the UK setting up a very warm or in the East hot Southerly flow. The cooler Atlantic air will lie close by to the West and this setup could well spawn some severe thunderstorms as the cooler air nudges the hot air out of the East late in the period with a return to more changeable and cooler Atlantic based winds with rain at times in the North and West to end the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure close to the NW with very warm air to the SE and where the two meet there will be a strong risk of thundery rain or showers with rather cooler air maintained over NW Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to show a chance of a plume developing close to or just to the East of the UK next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.4 pts with GFS at 82.8 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 46.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 30.4 pts to 23.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The charts this morning are still indicative that the UK will see it's strongest warm up of the season so far next week but will it be for all. The models are jostling around with a Spanish plume of heat as it is pulled North on rising pressure behind the current series of weak troughs as they move out of the UK to the East by Sunday evening. As pressure builds North and then slowly East hot Southerly or SE winds could be drawn up across the UK. The axis that the plume will lie is crucial to how much of the UK becomes affected by it with some output putting it further East to affect principally just the East and SE while some show all areas sharing in some very warm conditions for a time. Before we get too excited and used to the heat it looks like that after several days it will be displaced by the classic thundery breakdown from the South and SW and there is a strong trend to indicate a return to Atlantic Westerlies and attendant cooler air with rain at times towards the extended end to the output. So although it looks like it may not last too long there is a lot of interest next week not least from the risk of some pyrotechnics from thunderstorms as the cooler air fights back late in the week and no doubt if the breakdown is as marked as some output shows some local flash flooding issues could occur too. All too far out to call of course at the moment so while the pattern unfolds lets look forward to some very warm air on our backs next week as the synoptics finally look more akin to Summer rather than the late Spring or early Autmn cool charts that have blighted our part of the World for so long. Next update from 08:00 Friday June 26th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 24TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm front will cross NE over Scotland and Northern Ireland today with a ridge affecting the South and East of England persisting. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, bright and possibly very warm weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some thundery showers in places especially in the West and North at first and again later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a very weak and broken flow at the moment. Through the coming days the flow rejuvenates across the Uk from the West as pressure falls towards the weekend. A deep atlantic trough takes the flow well South over the Atlantic and then returns it North across the UK next week before flattening the flow again more towards a SW to NE flow near the UK again by the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today looks rather complex over the two weeks with High pressure to the South and Low to the North with fine weather alternating with spells of rain between now and the start of next week. High pressure then shifts more to the East or NE next week allowing winds to back SE with some very warm air followed by a thundery breakdown later before the end of the run returns to a changeable pattern with the most unsettled conditions returning towards the North at times but some rain for all on occasion. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar to the operational this morning ending on a very unsettled note with Low pressure positioned right over the heart of the UK. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show strong support for High pressure to lie out to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with West to NW winds carrying bands of rain and showers across the UK from off the Atlantic in average temperatures. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows changeable conditions over the coming 3-4 days with a couple of bands of rain crossing East over the UK on Friday and Sunday before pressure builds to the South early next week with fine and eventually very warm weather likely to return by the moddle of next week.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex system of troughs moving East on Friday and another crop later on Sunday with some rain for all at times between periods of pleasantly warm spells with some sunshine especially across the South. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today is probably the most disappointing of the set as it shows much changeable weather in a South or SW flow across the Uk with some dry, fine and warm spells alternating with some rainbands crossing east and some thundery weather too next week as fronts and lows engage hot air over Europe. The end of the run for the end of next week shows continued changeable conditions and rather cooler air at times too affecting much of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a changeable theme up to the early days of next week before pressure builds to the South and later the East with a warm, humid Southerly flow delivering some thundery showers to the West and SW in a week or so time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning shows the battle between increasingly hot High pressure over Europe next week and more changeable conditions trying to push into the UK from off the Atlantic. On this run the resultant warm and eventually very warm and humid weather on a Southerly breeze wafts North across the UK bringing the risk of thundery showers to the far West and South at times with some very high temperatures possible towards the East, all this following a changeable and at times cooler 3-4 days at the end of this week and the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure close to the NW with a SW flow across the UK but very warm and humid conditions near the SE perhaps with thunder. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today show a chance of a plume developing close to or just to the East of the UK next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.7 pts with GFS at 83.0 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.6 over 46.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 22.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS No one can deny that the synoptics are interesting at the moment as we are currently entering a battle between the Atlantic and Europe over the next week or so which of course in Winter could be much more interesting to most than is at this time of year but none the less a battle may be no less significant. As it stands the next 3-4 days look like being changeable with a couple of spells of rain spliced by drier and pleasantly warm weather though fresher for a time than currently at the weekend. Next week then shows pressure building from the South and it's as this edges to the East and SE of the Uk that very warm and even hot air is wafted North principally over Europe but also to some degree across the UK. Leaving GEM aside who prefer cooler and more changeable conditions throughout it's run all the rest show next weeks rise of pressure as strong and some have made enough correction West today to allow most of England and Wales to come under it's effects. GFS in both it's runs take High pressure all the way to Scandinavia later creating a block to the Atlantic. Even if this doesn't occur all areas should become warm or very warm at times next week though with the Atantic nibbling away at the very warm air there is likely to be some potentially very thundery weather developing at times which at this range is very difficult to pinpoint exactly where and when. This morning if I had to pick a most likely location for this I would say the extreme West and South of Britain but this could change depending on any future correction East of the extent of the warmth from Europe. So as indicated at the start it looks like an interesting time to come with finally some very warm temperatures expected for quite a few but particularly towards the SE. Some rain is possible at times in the first few days but more locally later as the inevitable push from the Atlantic attempts to dislodge the warmth and humidity. Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 25th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 23RD 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will cover Southern Britain with a warm front crossing East and NE over NW Britain tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK breaking up over the next few days before settling in a strong for the time of year West to East motion across the UK from late this week. It then backs to a South to North flow for a time later next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a set pattern in the next week with several days of warm and fine weather interrupted on several occasions by a trough of Low pressure crossing East over the UK bringing a spell of rain followed by fresher air on a westerly breeze. Then later next week things turn more generally changeable and cooler with rain or showers at times for most as Low pressure moves in close to or over the UK from the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the trend of the operational in full this morning and though day to day differences in synoptics are notable next week the message of a lot of fine weather with just brief cooler weather following several bands of rain and then more generally changeable conditions thereafter is very much the message from GFS this morning. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today indicate High pressure out to the SW with a ridge slightly further away than recently, sufficiently so to allow fronts to cross from the West or NW at times. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure to the South and SE of the UK with several days of fine and warm or very warm weather in the SE for a time before fresher and cooler conditions following a cold front passes over on Friday. Then with High pressure to the South and Low to the NW a SW flow will carry rain at times to the North and West with better conditions in the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data pretty well this morning with High pressure always closest to the South but with occasional fronts crossing from the West each bringing thicker cloud and occasional rain especially in the North and West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows Low pressure areas crossing the North with a Westerly flow for all areas from the weekend with rain at times especially in the North. The South flirts with warm and dry weather at times and as next week progresses the model shows hot air wafting North close to the SE and at the same time Low pressure to the West of the UK pushing East into the humid air and sparking some thundery rain or storms late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a Westerly flow too at the weekend with some rain at times towards the North with very little further South. Then as we move into next week there seems a desire to slacken the pattern while maintaining a light SW drift. With warm and humid air close to the South some thundery showers are indicated by the middle of next week almost anywhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning is very supportive of West or SW winds blowing across the UK for much of the period covered by this morning's run. While warm or hot and humid air is never far away from the South and SE it is for the most parts kept the other side of the channel with the UK under the influence of Low pressure to the North and NW with occasional rain and showers almost anywhere at times but precious little for much of the time across the South and SE excepting the risk of an isolated thunderstorm or two if any troughs from the West engage the hot air to the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the West and NW with a slack SW flow likely across the British Isles. In such a pattern the South and East would continue to see the driest and warmest conditions with the North and West at risk of rain or showers at times http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today show a weak Westerly or SW flow across the UK longer term. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.5 too. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.8 pts with GFS at 83.1 pts and UKMO at 81.5 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.9 over 45.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 32.3 pts to 22.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS We lie on the edge of some true Summer weather over the next few weeks. The European continent is expected to warm up big time in the coming days as an Atlantic depression to the NW of the UK pumps up some very warm air from Spain across most European nations. For the UK we lie right on the periphery of this but far enough away to not benefit from the very highest temperatures that they look like receiving. Instead we will have to put up with a warm SW feed delivering plenty of humid, fine and bright weather in the South and East while the North and West are shown to stay far more changeable and cooler with rain at times. There will of course be an ebb and flow in these conditions with the hot air to the SE possibly making it into the SE at times and if that happes at the same time as a trough feeds in from the unsettled NW some electrical storms could occur very locally. This is hinted at by some output later next week. Nevertheless, it looks unlikely that High pressure will conquer a rejuvenated Jet flow across the UK enough to spread the hottest air far into the UK before it gets pushed back towards the SE again. So as it stands this morning it's a case of so near and yet so far for big time heat but don't despair there is nothing unpleasant or threatening in the charts this morning which means a lot of fine June and early July weather looks likely with the odd shower or outbreak of rain always possible but as usual for this time of year, mostly in the NW. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 24th 2015

Here is my latest report on the soundings of the five most powerful weather computers in the world, namely GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM as at the 00z reports on the 22nd June 2015. Sorry unable to provide links this morning. The General Situation A trough of Low pressure will clear Southern England this morning followed by a UK wide ridge of High pressure tonight and tomorrow. Models 2 week Headline Rather changeable with some rain at times in the North and West but some fine and in places very warm weather especially in the SE. The GFS Jet Stream Forecast Todays Jet stream Forecast shows the flow currently blowing SE or South across the Uk weakens away over the next 24-36hrs. It then changes orientation to flow SW to NE across the UK later this week and through next as an Atlantic depression throws a ridge of High pressure across France and the Low Countries. GFS Operational Todays GFS run shows a lot of High pressure just to the South of the UK with Low pressure out to the NW and in the Eastern Atlantic. Some warm and humid weather will be popular in the South where a lot of dry weather is likely. However, Low pressure will make inroads into the South at times from the SW giving the risk of thundery showers at times as it engeages the warm air before cooling things down temporarily. In the North and West more changeable conditions are shown with rain at times and closer to average temperatures. GFS Control Run In theory today's Control Run replicates the operational in theme with the traditional Summer pattern of a NW/SE split with warm and humid weather in the SE while the North and West see the biggest share of rain at times while the South and East see the best dry and fine weather where it will often feel warm and at times very warm and humid. The GFS Clusters A complex array of options shown within the options today with a 30% chance of High pressure lying to the West and another 30% with a ridge to the South while the other 40% is made up of options of allowing Atlantic fronts to cross the UK from the West or NW with rain at times. UKMO shows High pressure in control later this week. After a few very warm and humid days in the South a cold front crossing SE will bring a cooler day or so at the start of next weekend before warm and humid air is pumped back up across Southern Britain by the end of the weekend. The NW continues more changeable with occasional rain on a SW flow. The Fax Charts The Fax Charts show things improving across the South later this week as High pressure builds in from the South. The NW continue to see troughs of Low pressure from off the Atlantic continuing to deliver cloud and occasional spells of rain at times. GEM GEM today has an enhanced version of SE is best and NW worst as the next 10 days weather unfolds. High pressure close to the SE will continue to flirt hot air from Europe across SE Britain but it never extends much into other areas with a warm and moist SW flow delivering rain at times to the NW and the occasional thundery type of weather which could occur further East and South as weak Atlantic troughs hit the very warm air in the Southeast on occasion. NAVGEM NAVGEM also keeps the warmest weather the other side of the channel this morning over the coming week. Nevertheless the South and East will see a rise in temperatures and humidity later this week and coupled with some dry and bright weather it will feel very pleasant. Further North and West a more definitive westerly flow is shown due to Low pressure to the North and troughs of Low pressure crossing east could give some rain at times, a little of which could make it's way down into the South at times. ECM ECM too shows hot air developing over Europe later this week and being maintained thereafter. The UK will be right on the boundary of this and the SE may tap into it on occasion but in general it stays the other side of the channel with the North and West of the UK in particular affected by fresher Atlantic winds with occasional rain at times which could extend further South and East at times. ECM 10 Day Chart The ECM 10 day chart from last night shows shallow Low pressure up to the NW with warm air wafting close to Southern Britain in a light SW flow. Some thunder showery rain would be likely in this setup. Notable Trend Changes From Previous Runs Not much change in the overall pattern this morning with the NW/SE split still very much likely in 10-14 days this morning. 31 Day Historical Variation Stats for GFS, UKMO and ECM The current verification Stats for up to the last 31 days show ECM the best at 3 days on 95.6 pts while GFS and UKMO share 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 85.6 pts while GFS comes in second at 83.1 pts and then UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM leads with 49.5 with GFS at 44.7 pts. Finall at 10 days ECM leads the way at 31.4 pts with GFS at 21.1 pts. My Thoughts The weather pattern is about to change somewhat as the NW influence of winds which have restricted higher temperatures for so long despite the largely dry conditions change to a more SW flow in the next few days. That's not to say that the UK is about to experience wall to wall summer sunshine and temperatures in the 80's every day as there still looks too much Atlantic influence for a lot of the UK keeping the very warmest conditions towards the far SE of England and more likely across Europe where some serious heat is possible with time. Nevertheless, with a SW breeze most of the UK can expect some better temperatures than of late and with a lot of dry weather in the SE it will feel very summery here. Further North and West stronger breezes will carry a lot of moist air across with some thick cloud and rain at times and it is conceivable that from time to time these disturbances will move into the very warm air in the SE with the risk of thundery showers for a time before the pattern resets. Looking longer term changes look to be slow with a continuing NW/SE split with perhaps a period of more notable unsettled conditions for many but at the range shown this by far from certain. So a classic summer pattern to come with the best weather towards the SE but nowhere looks like seeing a rainfest with even the North seeing respectable conditions on occasion between the fronts.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JUNE 21ST 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A westerly airflow covers the UK today unsyable in the North and complicated by a warm frontal wave running East over Southern England tonight and at first tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK weakening and breaking up through this week. Thereafter the flow reasserts strength and influence across the South of the UK through Week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows complex slack synoptics under a weak Westerly flow this week delivering contrasting day to day variations in weather ranging from dry and bright and for a time very warm in the South to cloudier days when the odd outbreaks of rain or showers occur. The bias for the rain remains largely to the North. Through Week 2 further changeable conditions are shown in a slightly stronger Westerly with rain almost anywhere at times but still biased towards the North http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a largely South/North split in conditions throughout with the best of the warmth and sunshine across the South while the North remains more changeable with rain at times under an Atlantic feed. In Week 2 some very warm and humid conditions are shown across the South and East and this would likely trigger some sharp thundery downpours if these temperatures engage with any troughing from the West and NW by then. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters still show the likelihood of High pressure out to the SW or west in two weeks with a lot of dry weather but with some members shown a stronger NNW flow with some showers and a cool breeze although this view is still very much in the minority. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a warming up period for a time midweek as High pressure to the South feeds warm and humid air up across the South and East. The North and West looks a little cooler with a little rain too at times and a trough moving East later in the week could promote a few thundery downpours as it engages the muggy air in the SE before things settle down again later at the same time as it becomes fresher.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional mostly light rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between as High pressure builds towards the South at the middle of the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM this morning shows a classic Summer pattern across the UK with Low pressure to the North and NW especially later but with High pressure close to the South and East. As a result cloud and rain at times will affect the North and West at times while the South and East stay largely fine and bright and become very warm and humid at times with perhaps the odd thundery shower as weakening troughs feed down from the NW on occasion. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM still shows a High pressure ridge to the SW lying towards the South at times with slightly changeable Westerly winds featuring delivering occasional rain to the North while the South becomes largely dry and very warm for a time around the middle of this week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure becoming more established to the South of the UK at times feeding periods of warm and settled conditions across the South if rather humid soon after midweek. The North stays more changeable with occasional rain and rather less warm weather. This process is repeated several times up to Day 10 with a more thundery theme looking likely after Day 10 as Low pressure to the SW engages very warm and humid air over the South at that time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the NW with a SW flow across Britain with the most likely scenario from this being rain at times chiefly in the North and West with a fair amount of dry and warm weather between more occasional rain across the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today are weak and inconclusive other than the fact that none of the output promotes anything dramatic over the period. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.7 too. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.3 pts with GFS at 83.4 pts and UKMO at 82.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.4 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 30.5 pts to 20.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS This morning's output maintains the relatively quiet theme weatherwise across the UK for the next few weeks. The basic pattern remains for the bank of High pressure to the SW to persist but with a slight shift of orientation to the ridge further South than of late sufficient enough to help engage more very warm air at times up over Southern Britain from the SW through the period. It is hard to say whether this would mean sunny and sultry conditions or cloudy and humid but the chance of some very high temperatures in the South at times over the next few weeks is possible albeit with the proviso that the odd thunderstorm could break out as weak troughs from the West and NW engage the hot and humid air at times. The North and West of the UK look more traditionally characterized by slightly breezier conditions with rain at times and temperatures close to average but even here some warmth could spread up from the South at times. So all in all a very typical pattern for the time of year with a lot of benign but very acceptable weather for most with the South and East fairing best while the North and West have the biggest share of any rain that's going and even here some dry periods can be expected. Next update from 08:00 Monday June 22nd 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 20TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Weak troughs will move East and SE across the UK today clearing to leave a developing ridge of High pressure across Southern Britain again while the North lies under a showery trough from off the Atlantic. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK weakening and breaking up through this week. Thereafter the flow buckles to more South to North or SW to NE orientationa across the UK strengthening again in Week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today always biasing the South for the better weather as a weak Westerly flow across the UK is maintained. A showery start to next week is then replaced by further showery troughs affecting the North at times while the South clings on to the better conditions with some warm sunshine and just isolated showers. Litttle changes in Week 2 with details irrelevant at this range but no dramatic weather shown for anywhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run preaches a similar pattern this morning with the North/South split even more enhanced with the added ingredient that the South at least could well become very warm and humid at times at through the period. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters still show the likelihood of High pressure out to the SW in two weeks time but this morning's crop of members largely suggest some greater influence of Low pressure to the North and NE on this morning's output. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a flat and slightly showery pattern in the early week but as Low pressure develops over the Atlantic it pumps up warm and humid conditions across Southern Britain from midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional mostly light rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows a sonewhat changeable period of weather over the next 10 days as shallow troughs and Lows continue to drift over the UK in a slack Westerly flow. A period of very warm and humid and largely dry weather is shown for the South though later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a similar slack westerly through the period with days alternating between dry and bright weather and slighly more unsettled conditions with a little rain or showers. once again the South could become warm and humid for a day or so soon after midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning is also showing a similar pattern with the showery early week conditions giving way to a period of warm or in the South very warm SW winds and then a return to somewhat cooler and changeable Westerly winds over the last few days of the run with some rain at times for all by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the NW with a SW flow across Britain with the most likely scenario from this being rain at times chiefly in the North and West with a fair amount of dry and warm weather between more occasional rain across the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem relatively weak with alternating patterns between fine and dry and slightly more unsettled conditions particularly in the North still foremost 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7 too. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.5 pts with GFS at 83.7 pts and UKMO at 83.0 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.8 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.1 pts to 19.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Another set of output showing a generally flat pressure and weather pattern across the UK over the next few weeks. Conditions in any one place are determined where you are placed geographically acrosss the UK with 'South os best' looking the order of the periods weather. Of course there will be certain days which don't reflect this pattern as the synoptic pressure patterns driving our weather pattern are complex at the moment. High pressure remains close to the South at times and as well as bringing largely dry and fine conditions some very warm air could be drawn up across these regions for a time later next week. This will be interrupted by occasional cloudier days with some showers but a lot of fine weather overall should be maintained here. In the North more unsettled conditions are likely for more regular periods of time with rain at times and a cool breeze from the West. All in all a lot of benign conditions of weather to come with my overall opinion being one of 'OK and Useable' type of weather looking the most likely with the odd outbreak of rain or showers to moisten the gardens but no monsoon or heatwave in the forecast. Next update from 08:00 Sunday June 21st 2015