[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good evening.

GFS tonight shows the run up to the Bank Holiday weekend unsettled with Low pressure close by delivering rain and showers for all from Tuesday on (thundery at first in the south and east). The first half of the bank Holiday weekend also shows rather unsettled conditions with better conditions moving NE from the SW to affect all areas by Sunday with Bank Holiday Monday dry and bright for many as high pressure extends across the UK from the west. In FI the pattern remains mixed with dry, bright and warm weather innitially replaced by a return to Atlantic Low pressure and unsettled conditions later on.

UKMO also shows an unsettled week to come as thundery Low pressure moves North from France on Tuesday and sets up a complex Low pressure area near to the UK for the rest of the week and start of the weekend.

ECM also shows an unsettled week with the same progression of events as above up to the weekend. The fine spell previously progged the past few runs from ECM has been watered down somewhat thanks to a small upper disturbance to the SW. However the run ends with a weak high pressure cell over the UK which looks like collapsing within 24hrs as low pressure surrounds the UK.

In Summary tonight after tomorrow things look unsettled with rain or showers for all areas at times and slowly cooling weather too as winds turn towards the west later in the week. Beyond that things remain undecided as many options seem possible though any thoughts of a prolonged dry and warm spell need to be treated with much speculation at present.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good morning folks.

GFS this morning shows a changeable week to come with thundery low pressure moving North from France on Tuesday and becoming entwined in the circulation of Atlantic Low pressure close to Britain late in the week continuing the risk of rain at times for all. After a few warm or very warm days in the SE temperatures fall to nearer normal values from midweek on. The Bank Holiday weekend shows further rain at times as deep low pressure lies to the North with cool North North Westerly winds over the UK on Bank Holiday Monday. FI continues to show changeable conditions as the Atlantic continues to drive Low pressure towards the NW of the UK with fronts and rain crossing in the flow.

UKMO looks very unsettled this morning with thundery Low pressure developing from France on Tuesday giving some very heavy and thundery rain for England and Wales on Tuesday to be followed by low pressure and rain or showers from midweek on into the Bank Holiday weekend. Temperatures look like falling to normal values in the south and east behind Tuesdays thundery rain.

The Fax Charts show the thundery Low nicely on Tuesday giving England and Wales a very wet day , after which further Atlantic troughs bring rain then showers later in the week in cooler SW or West winds.

ECM continues to illuminate us with a better prospect late in its run though it may come a little too late for the Bank Holiday. Low pressure is dominant as per the other models through the week before High pressure develops to the NW later next weekend and settles SE over the UK then bringing fine, warm and settled weather for all as we move into September.

Developments this morning are small but subtle as the development of thundery weather on Tuesday now looks more widespread, encompassing most of England and Wales and the trend from yesterday of High pressure from ECM in a week or so is repeated this morning with the prospect of fine and warm weather as we approach the working week beyond the Bank Holiday.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good evening.

GFS tonight shows a couple of quiet days weatherwise as slack pressure and an absence of troughs ensure nothing more than scattered showers. By Tuesday a thundery trough moves NE close to the SE with thundery rain likely in the SE overnight Monday and Tuesday. From midweek on Low pressure just to the west exerts more influence on the UK weather pushing troughs NE in the SW flow with rain at times and cooling temperatures. The Bank Holiday weekend looks disturbed as a depression moves NE over SW England on Saturday with a cool NW flow following. Into FI and things settle down briefly as High pressure ridges in before a return to Atlantic depressions and wind and rain replace the fine weather as we move deeper into September.

UKMO shows a basically unsettled picture though having said that there will be a reasonable amount of dry and fair conditions between the rainier spells. Tomorrow and Monday is a case in point when there will be a lot of dry weather over the UK with just scattered showers here and there. On Tuesday a thundery Low moves North from France giving a few lively downpours in southern and southeastern regions on Tuesday. In the midweek period Low pressure becomes more influential over the UK with centres close to the NW with rain and showers for all on basically SW winds by then.

ECM shows an unsettled week to come with tomorrow and Monday set fair with just scattered showers. From Tuesday until Saturday all areas are at risk of rain (thundery for a while in the South and East Tuesday and Wednesday). After a warm start things will cool down later in the week as a SW flow develops. On Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday a transformation in the weather is shown to take place as High pressure quickly builds over the UK to give a dry and bright second half of the weekend.

An unsettled look from all the models tonight with small crumbs of comfort from GFS in FI and at the end of the ECM run to include the second half of the Bank Holiday. Too far out to read too much into tonight but will be interesting to see if the trend persists in subsequent runs.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good morning. Here's the morning look at the 00zs from GFS, UKMO, The Fax Charts and ECM.

GFS this morning shows slack pressure conditions for the coming week with a thundery low pressure area moving slowly NE close to SE Britain on Tuesday. For much of the time the weather will be OK with no more than scattered showers these more especially in the North. It will be quite warm for most early in the week becoming more and more restricted to the far SE by midweek as Low pressure moves in close to the west before scooting off NE late in the week. The Bank Holiday weekend currently shown as an improving setup as High pressure drifts over the UK from off the Atlantic giving a fine and warm second half of the weekend for many. In FI this morning High pressure remains in control of the weather for Britain especially in the south with some fine warm early September weather with some less settled conditions mostly restricted to the NW.

UKMO also shows a very slack pressure pattern for the early part of the week with a lot of fair and bright weather for all areas and just the chance of a shower in any one place. The exception is the SE corner of England when a thundery disturbance is shown to run NE close by to the SE bringing the risk of thundery rain more extensively there on Monday night and Tuesday. Later in the week Low pressure drifts in close to Western Britain with rain or showers for all in a more noticeable westerly flow. Temperatures will remain on the warm side up until midweek before cooler air spreads in from the west from Thursday.

The Fax Charts show the cold front complex of today moving away east overnight tonight and the thundery disturbance of Monday night/ Tuesday also moving away NE by Wednesday to leave a somewhat showery slack flow over the UK.

ECM today shows the same pressure pattern for the next 4 days as the other two models though as last nights output it brings the thundery spell of Monday night further west to affect a greater area of Central and Eastern Britain lasting well into Tuesday. Through the rest of the week Low pressure close to the west brings an increasing risk of showers with temperatures falling off from the rather warm conditions of the early week. The Bank Holiday weekend does appear Low pressure based again this morning with normal temperatures and the risk of rain and showers for many with winds between SW and NW nationally.

In Summary GFS shows the chance of some reasonable weather off and on in the coming two weeks with an excursion into late summer fine weather in FI. The Euros look less inclined to bring us a fine Bank Holiday weekend with Low pressure shown on ECM to dominate conditions over and close to the UK.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Hi folks. For the benefit of those that have'nt had time to look at the models here's a brief resumee of the big 3.

GFS shows a weak cold front crossing east late tomorrow and overnight with some rain for the North and West moving east late tomorrow night perhaps with a heavy thundery burst for the southeast before it goes. With pressure slightly higher on Sunday many areas will have a dry day with mostly scattered showers chiefly in the North. Then over the early days of next week Low pressure from France runs North into the UK bringing thundery rain to central and eastern areas before a fresher cooler Atlantic based westerly flow follows after midweek with marked troughing giving heavy rain and showers for all up to Saturday. The rest of the Bank Holiday weekend shows westerly winds bringing fronts and rain across the North while the south and southeast might become dry if rather cloudy and breezy. Further on in FI and a powerful mid atlantic storm forces the Azores ridge NE over the UK with some fine warm weather for the UK as we move further into September.

UKMO looks somewhat better tonight with slack pressure patterns persisting over the UK for the time being. A weak front waving SE tonight and tomorrow will pulsate east across remaining areas tomorrow night with some showery rain as it goes. Then Sunday through Tuesday sees a lot of dry and relatively warm conditions with just scattered showers here and there. Later on Tuesday an area of thundery rain looks likely for central and eastern parts before a showery end to the week for all looks likely as Low pressure lies close to the west.

ECM finally looks much like UKMO in the short term though it makes more of the thundery weather on Tuesday extending it into Wednesday for Central and Eastern regions. For the rest of the week the weather shows Low pressure pulling NE over the North and away through the Norwegian Sea and Scandinavia over the bank Holiday weekend meaning an unsettled end to the week before improvements arrive from the SW by Saturday and on to the rest of the UK by Monday with High pressure on the doorstep of Western Britain by then.

The models to me appear to be improving slowly if only in modifying the extent and depth of unsettled weather to come. There could be quite a few 'OK' sort of days in the coming couple of weeks though some wet weather is possible for all at times. Despite some warm weather to begin with all three models continue to show fairly mediocre temperature values even in the drier spells.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good morning folks. Nice and sunny here in somerset this morning. Will it last...?

GFS this morning shows a ridge of high pressure crossing east through Britain today with a weakening cold frontal trough meandering slowly SE tonight and tomorrow. A decent day today and tomorrow for the south and east and becoming very warm in the SE and pleasantly so elsewhere too. Some rain and drizzle will move into the NW late tonight and sink SE to lie over Norhern England, North and West Wales and the SW tomorrow. In the far SE a thundery disturbance looks like moving NNE close to the SE with the chance of some thundery weather tomorrow night there. Next week shows Low pressure in control with rain or showers at times for all with some drier interludes in the south with temperatures falling back with time. The Bank Holiday weekend looks distinctly unsettled and windy with rain at times and cool temperatures with deep Low pressure North of the UK. The rest of the low-res part of the run continues the unsettled theme though high pressure does move in closer to the UK towards the very end of the run.

UKMO shows things looking a little better in the short term this morning and it may well end up that the weekend may not turn out too bad for many. True, there is a trough shown meandering SE over the UK tomorrow but it will be weakening with only patchy rain in the North and West. Also a graze with thundery weather may move NE close to the SE tomorrow night but its affect will be restricted to the SE and Sunday doesn't look too bad either as the UK lies in a slack air pattern with just a few showers scattered about and sunny spells and warm temperatures. As we move into next week Low pressure does becaome more influential with time and most places will see rain at some point.

The Fax Charts looks very similar to the raw UKMO data with a mish mash of weak frontal troughs delivering cloudier spells and a little rain over the weekend (perhaps thundery in the far SE) but slack conditions until Tuesday when a more sustained attack from thundery Low pressure from the South and Atlantic Low pressure moving in from the west by Tuesday make way for a far more unsettled period midweek. It looks warm or very warm in the SE for several days over the weekend and maybe Monday.

ECM also shows a fair, warm weekend with light winds but also shows the risk of thundery weather in the far SE Saturday night with a lot of dry weather elsewhere lasting into Monday. Then as per the other models Low pressure attacks the UK from the South and NW making for a period of complex Low pressure near Britain with rain or showers at times in cooler, fresher west winds. The Bank Holiday weekend is shown as being nothing special especially in the North while the south and Southeast see the best of any drier and brighter spells.

In the short term things look a little less unsettled through this weekend although longer term things remain as disturbed as ever with Low pressure moving in next week to deliver more rain and showers for all at times. Temperatures look to be warm or very warm innitially with cooler Atlantic winds taking hold as we move progressively further into next week. At this stage the Bank Holiday weekend looks unsettled with the risk of rain at times for all and just brief drier spells in normal temperature values.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Hi folks. After a dire day down here with the coldest mid August day since 1993 and torrential rain for some lets see how the 12zs shape up tonight.

GFS shows a ridge moving slowly east tomorrow followed by more low pressure fronts coming in from the west on Saturday. The North and West would become cloudy with rain overnight tomorrow extending SE into North and West England and Wales on Saturday. The South and East shows a mostly dry warm and humid day with some sunny spells towards the SE. By Sunday the front in the west engaging with warm humid air further east could give rise to some very wet weather in the East and Southeast with thundery rain trundling North which could extend into Monday in places while others see light winds and scattered showers. By midweek new Low pressure moves into the UK with wind and rain extending through all areas from the SW clearing North by Friday with brisk and strong west winds and showers in the North then. In FI tonight the general pattern of Low pressure to the NW and higher pressure to the south remains with wet weather in the NW frequently while the south and east see longer dry spells but also a few wetter, showery interludes. Temperatures look near normal for many but still quite warm in the south on occasions.

UKMO tonight shows a ridge moving east tomorrow giving a fine dry and much warmer day for many. By Saturday a trough is lodged across Northern England, North and West Wales and the SW with rain or drizzle in places while places further east still lie close to a ridge to the SE giving another dry and very warm day. By Sunday the air over the UK becomes slack and unstable with scattered heavy showers and the chance of more widespread thundery activity moving North over the SE and East overnight into Sunday. By early next week with pressure remaining quite Low there will be further days of rain or showers everywhere with temperatures slowly falling.

Finally ECM looks similar up to Monday with some heavy thundery rain possible for the east on Sunday as temperatures and humidities become high here over the weekend. With showers or rain elsewhere too on Saturday and Sunday the risk of heavy showers remains into next week though the North would become drier over Monday and Tuesday as a ridge builds in here briefly. Pressure falls in the Eastern Atlantic midweek and advances into the UK thereafter meaning spells of rain and showers for all for the rest of the run with temperatures near normal for most by then away from the far SE where they might stay a little above normal at times. To finish by day 10 the UK is surrounded by Low pressure with all meaningful high pressure kept SW of the Azores and Eastern Europe.

In Summary tonight things continue to look distinctly changeable for the foreseeable. The pick of the bunch for fine weather fans is GFS where the weather won't be too bad in the south at times as shown but the Euro's tonight look distinctly disturbed and with the warmth of this weekend ebbing away as next week progresses due to an Atlantic feed beginsing to take control with time.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good morning. Through the pouring rain at Brean this morning here's a look at the 00zs.

GFS continues to show a changeable period ahead. After todays front has cleared away we move into a period of warm and humid conditions for several days with Low pressure moving in from the west engaging with warm thundery air drifting up towards the southeast. After a dry start to the weekend for many showers will breakout as time passes with Sunday seeing some thundery ones nationally which follows on into Monday and Tuesday too as thundery low pressure remains close to the SE. Through the middle and end of next week the pattern remains locked with Low pressure near to the NW and West with rain or thundery showers at times for all. Through FI and GFS shows some very Autumnal charts today with the air becoming rather cold for the time of year to the North. This means some potent Atlantic depressions which bring rain and strong winds innitially as one such depression sits over the UK before slightly better conditions develop in the South with time as the Azores High throws a ridge or two our way at times.

UKMO also looks very unsettled this morning though warm and humid for many. Todays rain and showers clear to a brief ridge tomorrow and Saturday when temperatures rise into the warm or very warm category in the south and east at least. By Sunday Low pressure develops around the UK with some potent showers and thunderstorms possible almost anywhere as the instability aloft engages the very warm and humid surface air. This pattern remains in place up to the middle of the week.

The Fax Charts show that after tomorrow and Saturdays ridge humid air moves over the UK with a complex structure of troughs and Low pressure developing over the UK with potential for heavy thundery rain in many places from Sunday on.

ECM this morning offers very little cheer too with just variations on a theme of changeable potentially thundery weather for most at times for the next week before a more mobile Atlantic setup develops by next weekend. The one nugget of comfort is that it will feel warm and humid for most of the time and possibly very warm at times towards the SE particularly early in the period.

In Summary today things look decidedly changeable with no fine weather anywhere lasting more than 48hrs from any of the operationals this morning. All three offer potential for some thundery weather in the next 5 -6 days before a more Atlantic based setup developing thereafter. Indeed GFS goes on to show some particularly potent Atlantic depressions in FI which look more akin to October charts than late August.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Hi Folks. Actually managing to get a wifi signal tonight at Brean in West Somerset so here's a go at looking at the 12zs.

GFS tonight shows a waving front over Southern England tomorrow moving away NE later to leave us under a ridge of high pressure before further Low pressure encroaches from the NW over the weekend. Heavy rain is likely tomorrow in the south with heavy showers further north before a dry day develops for many on Friday. Then over the weekend things become quite warm for the south and east before showers break out everywhere on Sunday, heavy and thundery in the SE. Through the early and midweek sections of next week Low pressure to the NW dominates with further outbreaks of rain, some heavy and thundery likely almost anywhere with things remaining a little warm and humid especially in the SE. Through FI low pressure remains in control of the weather either centred near to or over the UK delivering outbreaks of rain and showers almost anywhere with temperatures close to normal.

UKMO shows a trough over South Britain tomorrow moving away NE later but not before delivering some copious rainfall for many during the day. Further North a slack showery airflow looks likely with thunder locally. A ridge is then shown to cross east on Friday ahead of falling pressure as Low pressure from off the Atlantic moves closer and very warm, sultry air interacts from the south making Sunday disturbed and showery with some heavy thunderstorms likely in the southeast. Then as we move into next week things slowly cool down somewhat as winds turn more westerly for a while with sunny spells and showers more likely towards the North.

ECM also looks very disturbed tonight mirroring the other two models up to Sunday. Then over the following 4 to 5 days further Low pressure engaging with warm continental air continues to give the potential for some very wet and thundery weather at times next week.

In Summary after tomorrows rain and showers the weekend looks like warming up, (very much so in the SE for a while). However Low pressure quickly follows with all models looking distinctly disturbed as we move through next week with the potential for further surges of thundery weather from the south at times as well as Atlantic systems close by too.

If I continue to get a signal will be back online tomorrow but back home later Saturday so whatever else happens the reports will return to normal then. Sorry to those who missed my reports from the last day or so.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good morning.

GFS shows a couple of quiet days with light winds and pleasant weather with some sunshine away from Southern England where a waving trough in the English Channel throws a canopy of cloud across and even some rain tomorrow and Thursday. By Friday and the weekend a ridge builds in giving several days of very warm and bright weather in the south and east, more short lived if at all in the North and West with cloud and breeze from an Atlantic depression giving the risk of rain here later in the weekend. Through the early days of next week a trough from this will give a spell of rain as it moves east cooling things down as it goes. A new ridge then dries things up behind with sunny spells and somewhat cooler weather for midweek. In FI this morning things become more unsettled with time from the south with the whole of the UK joining in with rain at times by the runs end with Low pressure in close proximity and high pressure over Greenland once again.

UKMO follows a similar route through the rest of the week with some very warm conditions developing for the south and east while the North and West come under the influence of an Atlantic Low bringing occasional rain there. It would stay warm in the south and especially the southeast with the risk of a few thundery showers late in the period.

The Fax charts today show a push Northward of the English Channel trough on Thursday with the risk of some heavy rain in the south for a while. Thereafter very warm air engages with the south in response to a ridge over the SE over the weekend.

ECM also follows the route of GFS and UKMO up to the weekend with a potentially thundery trough moving east early next week. There would then be a period of quiet, slightly cooler conditions before a further thundery depression moves North from the continent over the UK with heavy rain for all and much fresher air by Friday.

No major changes in the shorter term pattern shown last night. the bullet points being the sharp rise in temperatures at the weekend although I feel the very highest temperatures will be kept the other side of the channel as cloud amounts could be quite large even in the south if there is a SW component to the flow. The second bullet point is the cold front early next week and its interaction with the potentially hot air and the following evolution of Low pressure from the south shown by both ECM and latterly from GFS too.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good evening.

GFS tonight shows a trough of Low pressure moving NE tonight followed by a weak cold front crossing east tomorrow. Through Wednesday this will lie through the English Channel with the risk of small disturbances running along it allowing cloud and some rain to return to southernmost areas over Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter a ridge moves across from the west with a high centre forming to the SE through the weekend. Some warm and settled conditions would set up for the south and east for a while before a cold front crossing east early next week brings the more unsettled and cooler conditions in the NW across all areas. From thereon and through a part of FI a slack Atlantic flow engulfs the UK for quite a while with occasional rain though a lot of drier weather too in temperatures close to normal. Towards the end of FI a large high pressure area over the UK settles the weather down for all with a fine and warm and sunny end to the month for most.

UKMO tonight also shows a frontal set move through the UK over the next 24hrs followed by a period of slack pressure with a stationary front in the English Channel. So some rain and drizzle overnight and tomorrow will clear from the west late tomorrow. Then on Wednesday and Thursday fair weather seems likely though a cloud overhang from the front in the channel could maintain a lot of cloud in Southern England with even a little rain for a while. Following the fronts departure will be a ridge moving up strongly from the SW on Friday with the weather becoming warm then very warm with sunny spells over the weekend before the chance of something thundery looks possible shortly afterwards.

ECM looks very similar up to Saturday with the South and East developing a couple of very warm days at the start of the weekend. However, it then shows a cold front crossing East into the hot air sparking of some thundery outbreaks, especially for eastern areas. In addition a Low cell is shown moving North up the east of the UK enhancing the thunder risk before a cool NW airflow develops behind the trough through the early days of next week. By midweek pressure is then high to the SW with the cool and fresher NW breeze giving way to another short warm spell for the south and east at least in about 10 days time.

The pattern looks pretty much set tonight on the progression of events between now and Saturday with the proviso of the stalled English Channel front on Wednesday and Thursday not developing differently than shown in any way. Then with high pressure near SE Britain over the weekend some very warm air could well affect the east and south. Then both ECM and GFS (ECM a day earlier) brings a cold front east to bring rain and perhaps thundery weather to many areas early next week before a return to warm conditions again if ECM is to be believed and eventually via GFS later in FI.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good morning. A new working week. Lets see what the big three have on offer this morning taken from the 00zs.

GFS shows a trough crossing NE tonight and tomorrow bringing some rain and drizzle NE through most areas though precious little rain for the SE. Thereafter, it becomes basically dry with light winds, sunny spells and no more than the odd shower or two here and there up to the weekend. By Saturday a deep Low to the NW influences the weather for Northern areas with fronts bringing rain and fresh breezes eastwards from time to time. Further south still close to high pressure to the south sees the quiet weather continuing through the weekend. Through FI Low pressure continues to flirt with the UK with the North continuing to see wind and rain at times while apart from the odd trough crossing east in the south at times the weather here would continue to predominate dry. Temperatures throughout would continue to be near to normal away from the rainy NW.

UKMO also shows a weak set of fronts crossing NE tomorrow with rain and drizzle for the North and West while the South and East while cloudy stay largely dry. From Wednesday on a ridge builds over the UK with dry and bright weather for most for the rest of the week and weekend in the south though the odd shower couldn't be ruled out. In the North though things come a little more unsettled over the weekend as Low pressure to the NW brings some wind and rain there.

The Fax Charts show that once tomorrows fronts have cleared the weather will become dominated by a weak ridge from the SW with dry bright weather generally. A trough close by in the English Channel could mean more cloud for the south Wednesday and Thursday with maybe a little rain in the far SE for a while.

ECM also shows the same sequence of events through the week with the weekend becoming quite warm in the south for a while over the weekend. Next week then shows a potentially thundery trough cross England and Wales with some sporadic rain or showers before the staus quo returns of high pressure to the South and Low pressure near the NW midweek next week.

A fairly benign weather pattern is on the cards for the next 10 days or so. There will be a lot of pleasant days in the south while the North may see more cloud, wind and rain at times as the Atlantic train rolls by to the north. Temperatures will remain fairly average though some warm days will occur in the south while some equally cool ones occur in the NW under any persistant wind and rain spells.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good evening.

GFS this evening looks not dissimilar to the 00z output up to the weekend with a trough of Low pressure crossing NE on Monday night and Tuesday with rain from this for many though chiefly in the North and West. Once passed the weather brightens up for many though there may be a risk of some rain in the SE for a while late Wednesday and Thursday. Then as the weekend approaches Low pressure to the NW brings a front east across Northern and western areas with rain and brisk west or southwest winds for a while. Later in the weekend the Low moves further away North with high pressure nudging up from the South again. Through FI the basis of Higher pressure close to the south and Low to the NW remains with the best of the fairly benign weather pattern in the south while the North sees further rain at times and evntually joins the rest of the UK in settled conditions as high pressure develops over the UK.

UKMO's 12z shows a frontal system crossing the UK on Tuesday with rain for many for a while before a couple of non-descript days develop under slack pressure with sunny intervals and the chance of showers locally. A weak ridge then crosses east before the weekend ahead of an Atlantic depression which pushes its influence into the UK for the weekend in the shape of increasing SW winds and rain for the North and West though the South and East would most likely stay dry.

ECM shows rain on Tuesday as well as a frontal system crosses followed by a couple of days of sunshine and scattered showers, especially in the SE before a ridge on friday gives a dry day with sunny spells. Over the weekend Low pressure moves east to the North of Scotland with westerly winds and rain bearing fronts crossing east, most active in the North. By the start of the new week the south still looks quite dry for a while but as time passes Low pressure to the SW of Ireland becomes dominant as rain pushes North and East across the south.

The earlier predicted warm spell for later this week seems to have evaporated along with the potentially thundery weather the charts were showing a few days ago. Instead things look a lot less interesting weatherwise with a lot of dry weather around with some bright sunshine at times but not the high temperatures, this weather will be mixed with periods of less settled weather with some rain at times and breezy conditions too in the North and West.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good morning.

GFS this morning shows a changeable week to come though with a lot of dry weather for many southern and eastern regions. With winds basically from a westerly quarter exposed Western and Northern coastal counties will always be cooler and fresher but parts of the south and east could become quite warm with time. There will be some rain at times in the North and West especially on Tuesday as a small Low pressure system runs NE and a more generally windy and unsettled spell of weather looks likely late in the week in these same NW areas as a deep Low pressure passes NE close by. In FI the North/South divide continues throughout with the North having outbreaks of rain or showers for much of the time under a persistant westerly flow while the South continues to see the best of dry and bright and sometimes warm conditions though even these areas don't remain immune from at least a little rain.

UKMO also shows a changeable spell of weather in the coming week. As per GFS there will be a lot of dry weather for the South but some rain is likely later on Tuesday and the chance of scattered heavy showers through the midweek before another ridge develops close to southern Britain by the weekend. Winds will be fairly light through the week, especially in the South and it will feel warm in any sunshine.

The Fax Charts today show a weak westerly flow over today and tomorrow followed by the passage of a warm and cold front over Tuesday moving NE over all parts. Once cleared pressure patterns remain slack with a waving thundery trough close to the SE on Thursday bringing the risk of thundery rain there through the day

ECM this morning looks a lot like GFS with the frontal system on Tuesday shown to bring the risk of rain for all with perhaps a close shave for southeastern areas with thundery conditions the other side of the channel midweek before the pattern evolves that we have all become accustomed to so much this summer of Low pressure to the NW with troughs occasionally moving east in the flow. There would be a return to frequent outbreaks of rain in the North while the south see far more occasional rain in longer brighter spells with temperatures close to normal.

Nothing excited to shout about within the model output this morning with no particular weather type taking overall control. Instead we continue to see changeable conditions with rain and sun at times with the usual scenario of the North seeing the most rain and the south seeing the best of the drier, brighter and warmer spells.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good evening. My home is at Brean on the Bristol Channel Coast for a week so any Current Conditions I quote will be from there until next Saturday. My webcam image of course will remain from Radstock 30mls east.

GFS tonight shows the next two days with a weak westerly flow with pressure Low to the NW. There will be some sunny intervals but a few showers too, chiefly in the North and West whereas the south and east remain mostly dry and become brighter and warmer than today. On Tuesday a trough crosses east over the UK with rain for many at some stage. Then on Wednesday and Thursday pressure rises from the SW with dry weather predominating with sunny spells and increasingly warm conditions. Through the weekend pressure falls from the NW with SW winds and rain bearing fronts crossing the NW. However, dry weather hangs on in the south and east until the end of the weekend when a trough moves into what will be very warm air by then delivering thundery rain as it moves east across the UK. Thereafter, through the majority of FI winds blow from a westerly quadrant with a north/south split developing with any rain restricted to the North while the south stay dry with bright periods though often a cooling breeze. High pressure then dominates the whole UK for a while at the runs end with warmer air returning with sunnier skies too.

UKMO tonight shows a fairly quiet run of weather from now with pressure generally slack but set fair. However, as always there are exceptions and on Tuesday a trough crosses the UK bringing rain for most before pressure recovers behind it and a promising ridge of high pressure develops from the SW by the end of the run though the far SE could be affected by some thundery rain on the slow clearance from the Tuesday trough on Wednesday.

ECM is out on its own somewhat tonight with it showing the weather as remaining far more changeable than the other two. From now until Tuesday the pattern seems very much set with a dry couple of days apart from some showers in the NW and rain from the aforementioned trough on Tuesday. Its from then that the models diverge with ECM showing much more volatility in the atmosphere over and around the UK late next week. The result of which is the risk of thundery rain or showers almost anywhere up to and including Friday with the emphasis of these more towards the east. Over next weekend pressure rises from the south with a dry day or two before the run ends with a return to the all too familiar Atlantic winds with Low pressure to the North pushing occasional rain bearing troughs east over the UK.

In summary tonight the next week is divided into two camps. i.e GFS and UKMO in one corner and ECM in the other. Things up to and including Tuesday look straightforward enough with the period from midweek on up for debate. It does though look though as a warm up will occur in stagnant air later next week before Atlantic winds look like returning in a week or so time. The chance of widespread thundery weather from ECM last night though does seem to have receded today though it wouldn't take much shift in the synoptics around midweek to shift it back on again in future runs.

[13th August 2011 Weather And General Chat]

Rather cloudy but dry after some overnight rain. Currently 15.2C.

http://icons.wunderground.com/webcamramdisk/g/i/gibsy/1/current.jpg?1313224398

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good morning. Here's a roundup of the big three this morning as I see them.

GFS shows a westerly flow from today until Monday with some bright spells and scattered showers mostly for the North and West while the South and East stay largely dry and bright. On Tuesday a trough moves east bringing rain for all before drier and warmer conditions return for the second half of the week as the Azores high ridges NE over Britain. By the weekend this slips south as Low pressure encroaches further south from the NW with a SW low and muggy conditions next weekend with some rain in the NW. In FI a trough crosses east bringing the risk of thundery rain before fresher srier conditions develop as pressure rises once more. We then develop a NW/SE split as the ridge holds on in the South while the North and West become windier and cloudier again with some rain.

UKMO shows a quiet two or three days with some bright intervals and scattered showers, mostly in the North and West in a light Westerly flow from today until Monday. On Tuesday a trough moves slowly NE bringing rain for all some of which could be heavy. This is further complicated by thundery air tracking North over France meaning the clearance of this from the SE is slowed with Wednesday and Thursday here seeing the chance of heavy thundery rain for a while while the North and West become clearer and fresher. the working week then ends on A Northerly flow around the Low in the North Sea with cooler fresher conditions for all by then with the chance of a few showers.

The Fax Charts follows the UKMO raw output this morning with the chance of thundery rain by Wednesday.

ECM is very different to last night in as much as the pattern up to Tuesday remains the same but it makes much less of the thundery risk midweek, instead restricting it to the SE while the rest of the country remains in cooler, fresher air with the rain of Tuesday having introduced these conditions. From Thursday and on through the weekend high pressure nudges across from the West with plenty of dry, warm weather developing in the south while the North and WEst see wind and rain encroaching later as the high pressure moves slowly off east and Low pressure to the NW becomes more influential again for the UK.

Things look very mixed over the next week or two with the chance of all aspects of Summer weather. There will be rain for many on Tuesday (shown by all models), a thunder risk for the South East Wednesday and Thursday (UKMO and ECM) and warm conditions at various times from GFS and ECM chiefly in the South. The details from all models will change as weak pressure systems battle for supremacy so expect further changes from run to run.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good evening.

GFS this evening shows Low pressure up to the NW with a slackening Westerly flow over the UK through the weekend. Apart from some rain tonight and at first tomorrow the south will be dry and bright for much of the time. With an unsettled blip looking possible on Tuesday into Wednesday in association with a small low pressure moving NE the weather then settles down in the south as high pressure develops near Southern Britain by the weekend with increasingly warm and sunny conditions. Further North though unsettled weather would probably remain as Low pressure passes east well to the North. In FI tonight things remain very changeable with a notable unsettled few days developing in the second week sandwiched by another brief settled spell before wind and rain returns by the runs end.

UKMO tonight shows a quietish spell of weather for the next 5 to 6 days. There will be some rain at times in the North and a few showers (perhaps thundery) further south from time to time later too but for much of the time the weather would remain set fair with sunny spells and temperatures slowly lifting later.

ECM tonight shows 3-4 days of quiet weather with sunny spells developing and just scattered showers in the North and West particularly. Early next week sees things warm up steadily with humidities rising quickly. From midweek onwards a strong chance of a very thundery spell develops as warm air plumes up from the South mixing with cool unstable air aloft. By the end of the week and through the weekend some very thundery weather is likely as Atlantic air progresses into the UK mixing with high surface temperatures.

Things look very changeable from the models tonight though the next 4 to 5 days overall don't look too bad and certainly an improvement on recent days for the north. GFS in FI shows changeable conditions with almost Autumn like wet conditions mixed with very reasonable days periodically. ECM offers the real chance of a major thundery spell next week with some real pyrotechnics should it verify. It is of course the forerunner of a return to cooler atlantic based weather in about 10 days time.

[12th August 2011 Weather And General Chat]

A cloudy and muggy morning but dry and reasonably bright. Currently 16.7C.

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[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good morning. Here's a look at the 00zs from GFS, UKMO incorporating Fax Charts and ECM.

GFS this morning shows Low pressure to the North and Northwest throughout the high resolution part of its run but far enough away from the south to keep things dry for much of the time if not that spectacular. However, even in the south some small disturbances could bring some rain up until midweek when a more concerted push of High pressure settles things down with sunny spells and warm conditions late next week. Further North things will always remain more changeable with rain at times. In FI things become very warm for a while with sunny spells in the south before a thundery breakdown in association with fresher air advancing from the West cools things down in 10 days or so. In far FI things look rather more changeable again then for all with rain at times and temperatures nearer to normal.

UKMO shows a showery weekend once some more persistant rain has run east Friday night with perhaps another spell for the far SE on Sunday. The showers will be heaviest in the North and West where it will be breezy and cool feeling while they remain relatively few in the South and East. Next week then sees lighter winds develop everywhere and apart from a few showers around a progression towards more settled and warmer conditions look possible from midweek.

The Fax Charts show fronts clearing away east over the weekend with a ridge of high pressure nudging North and East towards Southern Britain. A couple of warm fronts move North and NE early next week introducing humid and warmer air with things brightening up in the south and SE Tuesday afternoon.

ECM also looks more promising in the longer term. After the pattern that UKMO runs for the next three to four days ECM also brings warmer and drier conditions into the south for a while early next week. Then over midweek a thundery Low moves NNE over England and Wales from France bringing some heavy, thundery rain to many. Scotland and Northern Ireland probably stay in the unsettled and showery theme to which they have become so accustomed through much of next week. Behind the Thundery Low as it moves away NE pressure rises strongly near the South with warm and sunny weather developing as well as rising humidities again. By day 10 the unsettled and windy weather in Scotland nudges a weakening cold front slowly south though the far South would remain dry and very warm.

Things do look a little more optimistic this morning but only for the south. With the proviso for the incursions of small disturbances to affect the weather from time to time the next week or two does show a lot of warm and possibly very warm weather down here at times. Humidities will often be high and if things evolve ECM's way and later GFS a brief thundery spell could occur as early as midweek next week before the weather settles down again. We must take into account though the upper air patterns are still not ideal for prolonged, sustained warmth but ECM inparticular is certainly taking a step in the right direction this morning, a trend that its been developing now over the last few runs.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Good evening.

GFS shows an unsettled spell of weather with Low pressure close to Northern Britain, close enough to bring rain at times to all areas with some drier and brighter interludes inbetween. Through next week the weather is shown to remain changeable though there will be some drier and brighter spells as ridegs pass east close to Southern Britain, most notably early and late in the week. In FI the weather remains changeable though the drier and brighter weather will probably outweigh the time that more unsettled weather occurs late on in the run.

UKMO also looks unsettled again tonight with Low pressure to the North and Northwest dominant with outbreaks of rain and showers to take us through until Monday when a brief ridge of high pressure brings a dry day or two before Low pressure returns with its unsettled weather midweek.

ECM follows closely the UKMO route with changeable weather continuing as at present with rain at times and away from the humid weather of tomorrow temperatures close to normal. Early next week shows a weak high pressure area moving east close to Southern Britain. By midweek this has declined with slack pressure developing over and around the British Isles. Late on in the run there is potential shown tonight for a period of warm and humid weather to develop and with Low pressure feeding North from France thundery rain would likely move North through Britain with a possible repeat by the end of the run.

Still a very mixed picture tonight with rain at times mixed with drier and brighter spells with ECM showing a potentially thundery spell in the middle to end of next week in slack pressure conditions. Again tonight no operational model shows anything reliably settled in their time frames.

[Today's Weather And General Chat]

Overcast and dull with hill fog and occasional bursts of showery rain, not amounting to much here though. 16.2C currently.

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[Model Discussion - 27th July]

GFS this morning shows Low pressure mostly to the North and Northwest of the UK throughout the reliable time frame to it's 00z run with fronts crossing east in the westerly flow at fairly regular intervals. There would no doubt be a few drier interludes but some wet and breezy periods too with showers inbetween. No doubt a few places will escape with some days dry but temperatures will be held to near normal levels by extensive cloud amounts for much of the time. In FI pressure does rise in the south for a while bringing drier and warmer conditions for a time before a major Autumnal looking storm system sets up NW of Britain at the end of the run bringinging wet weather and gales in to the west and north especially for the Bank Holiday weekend.

UKMO also shows an unsettled spell lasting through the weekend with rain then showers between now and Sunday. Then over the early days of next week pressure rises from the south with a high cell near SE Britain by Wednesday introducing warmer, more humid conditions into many places. However, its effect looks temporary and may not totally eradicate the incidence of showers in the North and West extending slowly SE to other areas with time.

The Fax Charts continue to show complex troughing delivering bands of rain at times between now and Saturday witha more straightforward WNW flow and showers for Sunday. Pressure is shown to rise close to Southern Britain by Tuesday of next week.

ECM follows UKMO closely through the next 4 to 5 days with unsettled weather prevailing on the back of Low pressure to the North. Thereafter, as per UKMO pressure rises near the South of Britain with a warmer, drier interlude. High pressure then extends up to the North and East while pressure falls to the SW with troughs feeding rain and wind NE into southern and western regions extending at times further NE. The far North and East could stay dry as shown though with a strong SE wind.

Not much change yet again this morning with UKMO and ECM showing something of a pressure rise towards the middle of next week giving the south at least a couple of dry and warmer days. However, ECM then goes on to show a switch to a SW/NE split as Low pressure to the SW keeps things unsettled there. GFS on the other hand keeps High pressure further south in FI before collapsing it away in response to a major Atlantic storm at the end. So despite those differences in evolution the trend is still one for a continuation of the very changeable theme thats plagued us all summer.

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

GFS tonight shows continuing unsettled weather with rain at times as Low pressure stays close to Northern Scotland. Innitially warm and humid feeling in the southeast fresher air spreads east over the weekend but with further showers. On Tuesday pressure rises as high pressure passes east close to the south. Low pressure returns quickly though with more rain and showers for all up until the second weekend. In FI high pressure slowly develops to the North and East with drier and warmer conditions widely for a while before low pressure returns off the Atlantic by the end of the run.

UKMO also shows unsettled weather lasting up to the end of the weekend. Rain would occur from various fronts for all areas from tomorrow until Saturday when fresher air moves east with sunshine and showers in a cool brisk WNW lasts through the weekend. Early next week shows pressure rising slowly as a weak area of high pressure slides east to the south of Britain. The weather would become fairly dry in the south with some welcome sunshine while the North sees further showers in association of Low pressure well to the North of Scotland.

ECM also remains unsettled up until early next week with rain and showers continuing in a brisk breeze in association with Low pressure close to or over Northern Britain. By Tuesday of next week the weather improves somewhat in response to high pressure close to southern Britain but showers would continue further North in response to Low pressure to the NW. Any improvements are then shown to be shortlived as an unsavoury low pressure is then scanned to centre on Ireland sweeping high pressure away again and re-introducing rain and cooler conditions for all to end the week.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record things remain unchanged again tonight with just brief ridges of high pressure between spells of unsettled weather where rain and showers continue to occur. In recent runs GFS and ECM have both supported rising pressure to the NE which when linked to continuing high pressure over Greenland serves to continue an unsettled theme as Low pressure approaches from the west and stalls near to our shores, filling slowly.

[Today's Weather And General Chat]

Looks like we're going to squeeze another decent day out down here with variable cloud and some warm sunny intervals. Currently 14.1C

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