Gibby
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Posts posted by Gibby
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Good evening.
GFS tonight looks very disturbed throughout its operational with rain at times and just the briefest of drier spells as ridges pass by close to the south notably in the early to middle of next week when it could become very warm for a while especially in the SE. Low pressure then returns and is never far away from then on until the end of the run with rain heavy at times accompanied by strong winds at time too.
UKMO tonight continues to show Low pressure in charge for the next 6 days with a Low centre close to the North of Britain in one shape or form throughout. There will be rain at times in all areas with showers at other times but this doesn't exclude the chance of some drier weather at times in the south with temperatures close to normal.
ECM also shows Low pressure the dominant force with rain at times with a brisk west wind from tomorrow well into the weekend. Some of the rain or showers would be heavy especially in the North. Then a ridge moves in early next week before slack pressure develops towards the end of the run. So after a few dry and warmer days in the south early next week the chance of heavy showers increases again towards the end of the run.
Its another night of variations on a theme as the changeable conditions continue through all the models tonight. So rain at times for all from all models but no doubt there is scope shown for some drier and brighter spells too, especially in the south when it could become warmalbeit briefly.
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A dry, bright start with sunny spells. Cool and fresh feeling at 14.4C
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Good morning.
GFS shows west or southwesterly winds blowing across the UK through the reliable time frame with Low pressure anchored to the North of Scotland. Various troughs moving east in the flow will continue to bring rain then showers to all areas at times, with some drier and brighter interludes these more likely in the south. Temperatures will be near normal but there may be a short more humid spell in southern Britain tomorrow and Thursday. In FI pressure remains generally Low to the North and high to the south with rain at times, chiefly in the North as southern regions occasionally come under the influence of high pressure offering warmer and drier conditions here at times.
UKMO also shows a westerly flow bringing copious rainfall to parts of the North tomorrow while the far south look like staying dry. Then as Low pressure moves close to North Scotland by the weekend further heavy showers or rain at times can be expected anywhere though always more prevalent in the North and West. Temperatures would remain close to normal.
The Fax Charts this morning show complex troughing over the UK from tomorrow on with a particularly wet day tomorrow over the North with Friday looking more generally wet as warm and cold fronts cross east over the UK. Saturday then looks a more straightforward blustery day with sunshine and heavy showers likely, especially heavy in the North and West.
ECM this morning looks equally disturbed and very similar to UKMO with a window of brighter, drier and warmer conditions early next week before Low pressure returns towards the final days of the run.
The weather continues to show little sign of any long term settling down this morning. Throughout the next two weeks the continuation of changeable conditions of periods of rain and showers mixed with shorter dry and warmer interludes continue. Temperatures will range from near normal for much of the time to somewhat above as the drier spells move through, especially in the south and east.
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Good evening folks. Here's a look at the 12zs.
GFS shows tomorrow's ridge quickly collapsing away on Wednesday as a warm front crosses the UK, active in the North. So after a dry if rather cloudy day tomorrow with normal temperatures cloud and rain moves quickly east over Northern areas overnight Tuesday and Wednesday. In the south Wednesday will become somewhat warmer and more humid with a lot of cloud, especially towards the west. Through the rest of the week and weekend Low pressure to the NW dominates the UK with rain or showers extending to all areas with time with fresher air returning east across the south later. In FI the weather remains very changeable with a few days of quiet weather in a week or so being quickly replaced by yet more Low pressure with rain at times this time more especially in the south and east. Thereafter, winds blow from the west or Northwest and with Low pressure close to the North there would be further rain at times for all with normal temperatures.
UKMO tonight looks very similar in the short term with a fresh west or southwest flow blowing across the UK after the collapse of the ridge on Wednesday. So after a few dry days for the south tomorrow and Wednesday all areas would join the North in having rain at times as various troughs cross east in the flow. In fact Wednesday could be very wet in the North as a warm front runs east. By the weekend all areas would see sun and showers once more as a fairly deep low pressure lies North of Scotland with fresh west winds for all.
ECM follows the same pattern through the week with rain at times in the North from Wednesday and the south from Thursday. Temperatures will rise a little and it will become rather humid for a while in the south over Wednesday and Thursday. The weekend shows deep Low pressure over Scotland with a very showery west or west southwest flow. Early the following week sees Low pressure move away NE with another brief excursion to higher pressure for a day or two and a quick return to Low pressure thereafter once more.
The cycle of Low pressure, then ridge, then more low pressure continues tonight with the driving force of high pressure over Greenland being responsible for the continuing pattern of our weather. As I indicated earlier the details from day to day and model to model will continue to change but there looks to be no end in sight to this fairly benign cycle of weather from anything I've seen tonight.
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A cool and fresh start with a lot of cloud and showers scattered about. 13.6C currently.
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Good morning. Here's a rundown of how I see the 00z output of the big three this morning.
GFS shows a weak ridge moving east across the UK tomorrow following today's cool Northwesterly showery flow. The weather would be mostly dry tomorrow if rather cloudy with near normal temperatures. Then from Wednesday onwards a fresh Westerly then southwesterly flow develops as pressure falls again from the NW with a wet day likely in the North and West Wednesday. This unsettled theme then extends slowly SE to affect other areas by the end of the week with any fine and in places there warm weather restricted to the far SE by the end of Friday. By the end of the weekend a trough is shown having crossed east through the UK bringing rain for all and followed by an unstable Northerly with low pressure over Denmark bringing showers early next week. In FI this morning the high pressure based runs of yesterday have been modified to show another brief fine spell early on in FI ahead of more Autumnal type Low Pressure moving east close to Scotland later on with wind, rain and cool temperatures likely for many.
UKMO shows the same trend through the week with cloudy, humid air extending across the UK on Wednesday with heavy rain for the North and Northwest inparticular but mostly dry weather prevailing in the south for a while longer until Thursday though sunshine amounts will be small in the brisk westerly breeze. By the weekend pressure is Low near Scotland with a showery airflow across Britain with sunny intervals inetween. Some of the showers will be heavy with thunder while some places may miss them and stay dry and it would feel pleasant enough in any prolonged sunny spells.
The Fax Charts show a warm front crossing the UK on Wednesday followed by a cold front crossing Southern areas on Thursday and an occlusion on Friday all in association with Low pressure moving east over Ireland by 12z Thursday.
ECM also has a trough crossing the North on Wednesday bringing rain and fresh westerly winds while the south sees humidities rise and rather cloudy conditions but mostly dry weather. By late Thursday on the risk of rain in the south too increases as pressure falls though the south will always be the best bet for staying dry and bright at times. Early next week sees another cell of high pressure move into the UK from the west before this too is displaced by Low pressure once more from the Atlantic by day 10.
In Summary we still have high pressure over Greenland and near the Azores. So in essence the sequence of weather we've had so much of late can be expected to be repeated in the oncoming weeks. There will be some pleasant warm weather at times as ridges pass east over us, especially in the south but also periods of lower pressure when showers or rain can be expected. As is indicated on the output above outside of the reliable range details of when and where each Low and ridge will occur will change from run to run and model to model but there seems little evidence to support any long lasting countrywide fine, warm and sunny weather nor is there any evidence to support any prolonged sustained rainy weather countrywide so I think the models continue to show fairly standard August fayre really.
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Good evening all. A little late but here's how I see the 12z output.
GFS shows a cool and strong NNW flow for many tomorrow with rain or showers in places followed by a ridge on Tuesday bringing lighter winds, drier and warmer conditions away from the far NE. Through Wednesday the ridge collapses away and progressively more unsettled weather spreads back first into the North on Wednesday and areas further south by Friday. Some temporary warm and humid conditions do seem likely for a while in the far east and SE on Thursday especially. Over the weekend showers or rain at times seem likely in the circulation of a depression centred to the west of Scotland and drifting across the UK over the weekend. In FI another spell of slack winds and low pressure is shown with further showers although the emphasis once more is shown towards drier and settled conditions developing under high pressure through the latter stages of the run although for the third time in a row the operational run described here falls well above the ensemble mean.
UKMO tonight shows the same sequence of events under the same synoptic setup as GFS through the week. Then a very showery weekend is shown again for next weekend with more Low pressure in mid Atlantic ahown at 144hrs poised to reinforce the Low pressure influencing the UK's weather next Saturday.
Finally ECM is a little better tonight in the long term as it steers the weekend depression next weekend away NE towards the Faroe Islands though still close enough to produce more showers for western and northern Britain while the south and east enjoy the best of any dry and quite warm conditions. Eventually towards the end of the run weakish high pressure settles over the UK enhancing a spell of dry and quite warm conditions though despite high pressure over the UK at 240hrs it already looks to about to become under pressure from the east and/or the SW shortly afterwards.
No overall change tonight from the models though ECM has joined GFS in showing something a little drier in a week to 10 days. However, a quick look at the ensemble mean data from both models show a little less optimism. UKMO looks quite disturbed at 144hrs with heavy showers likely beyond termination of its run.
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Good morning.
GFS 00z output shows an unsettled start to the week with rain or showers and a cool NNW wind for a while before a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west late Tuesday and Wednesday drying and warming things up for a while. Thereafter winds back West or Southwest as the ridge collapses and unsettled weather gradually returns from the NW to reach all areas by the weekend. Next weekend would see a sunshine and showers scenario before FI shows a strong build of high pressure from the Atlantic to leave the UK mostly dry and warm for the most part. However, this is not supported by the ensembles as this evolution was a marked warm outlier.
UKMO also has a much weaker ridge this morning with a broad westerly flow for the whole of the UK by Thursday. So after a showery start to the week in brisk NW winds, a drier and brighter interlude would develop before cloud and rain eventually winds its way from NW to SE over the UK before next weekend. The weekend then shows Low pressure North of Scotland, westerly winds and sunshine and showers.
ECM completes the hat trick by also making less of the midweek ridge with as UKMO Low pressure regaining control by next weekend and beyond. So after a showery start to the week, a drier day or two midweek looks likely before further outbreaks of rain develop from the NW by the end of the week and over next weekend. Then once more a weak ridge crosses the south before yet more Low pressure by midweek.
There seems over riding concensus now that the ridge midweek has been downgraded to a 24-48hr blip in what seems to be a never ending pattern of Low-ridge-Low scenario. GFS breaks out of the pattern in FI but was a marked outlier and will probably show it gone on the 06z. ECM keeps the above pattern going with no sustained warmth and sunshine lasting more than a few days before the risk of rain and lower temperatures return.
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Good evening all.
GFS tonight shows the current unsettled and showery weather continuing until Tuesday. As winds turn fresh to strong NW on Monday it will feel cool in exposure. On Tuesday a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west giving a dry day or two in the North and probably a little longer in the south. Temperatures will rise somewhat to near or a little above normal in the south. Low pressure then slowly regains control of the UK weather so that by the weekend looks showery generally though some dry brighter spells are still likely in the south as deep low pressure lies NW of Scotland. Through most of FI winds remain from the west, veering NW then North with time. There would be some showers too particularly in the North and East with temperatures generally near normal for most. At the very end of the run high pressure to the NW extends a ridge SE over the UK with dry and bright conditions by day with maybe some early Autumn type mistiness at night.
UKMO shows Low pressure moving through the UK over the next 48hrs and away NE into Northern Europe with a strong NNW flow over the UK Monday and lighter winds Tuesday as a ridge moves into the UK from off The Atlantic. The high pressure collapses away SE towards midweek. The next couple of days will see heavy showers or rain at times with a cool NW wind on Monday before drier and warmer conditions move into the UK late on Tuesday before some rain returns to the North and West on Wednesday.
ECM shows the same pattern up until Wednesday but collapses high pressure much quicker than previously with rain into the North and West by midweek extending to more areas with time to affect most of the UK by the weekend as Low pressure establishes itself off Western Scotland. So after a couple of dry days for the south midweek showery rain could break out here and there by the weekend. Then as we move through next weekend and the start of the following week Low pressure fills to the North with winds falling light with slack pressure gradients over the UK. With instability around in the atmosphere too further showers can be expected here and there but a lot of dry weather too.
The pattern remains unchanged with the only noticeable difference tonight being that the ridge of high pressure programmed for midweek seems to have a shorter-lived duration than previously noted. The pattern shown thereafter remains with potentially unsettled characteristics as meaningful high pressure remains at arms length from our shores for much of the time though on the other hand with no marked Low pressure progged either over the UK a lot of dry, pleasant August weather would continue to occur.
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Hi folks.
GFS's 12z shows a Low pressure based weekend with the axis trundling steadily east over Sunday from the UK to Northern Europe pulling winds into the NW or North as it does. A very showery weekend and start to next week looks likely with most places seeing at least some rain and some quite a lot. As winds turn into the North or Northwest it will feel cool for a while in exposure with some chilly nights in the North. Through midweek a ridge of high pressure moves east with a fine day or two in the North and perhaps three or four in the south. However, by the weekend most areas will begin to turn more unsettled again with some rain at times. After a warm few days in the south in association with the fine weather temperatures will begin to fall back again over the weekend. Then in FI the more unsettled conditions persist for 4 or 5 days ahead of renewed high pressure towards the end of the run dries and brightens things up again.
UKMO tonight shows the next three days as being very showery as a Low pressure complex crosses east over the UK on its way to Europe. As it moves away winds become quite strong and cool from the NW with further showers before more settled conditions in association with a ridge moves across the UK midweek. The south then looks quite warm and settled for a while but any fine weather in the North is quickly replaced by further unsettled weather in association with an Atlantic depression soon after midweek.
ECM follows the same pattern with a showery weekend and a particularly windy, cool and showery Monday before a ridge moves east across Britain by Wednesday. In the North this is quickly followed by a warm front with rain and drizzle with a rather cloudy but dry day in the south. On Thursday the ridge weakens and moves away eastwards with Low pressure becoming more influential over all of the UK as time passes into Friday and the weekend. Showers or outbreaks of rain would then occur almost anywhere but with some sunnier breaks inbetween.
The pattern of the past few weeks remain rock solid this evening as pressure remains high over Greenland and the Azores with Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic towards the UK periodically. The pattern of Low pressure then ridge then more Low pressure means there will be spells of showers or rain at times interspersed with spells of drier and at times warm weather in the south and east. With these changeable conditions taking us into mid August it looks like the first half of this month would turn out to be just as fickle as the other two months of summer 2011 though by the same token never a washout.
No Report tomorrow morning. Working in Bath City Centre tomorrow. Back tomorrow night.
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Not a bad start to the day with sunny intervals between quite extensive Cumulus clouds. 16.2C.
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Good morning folks.
GFS's 00z output shows Low pressure straddled across the UK over the weekend with a generally westerly flow followed by a Northwesterly one which will become cool and fresh for a short while early next week. Showers will be the general weather pattern, though some longer spells of rain could occur late on Saturday and more especially on Sunday. After a couple of breezy, showery days early next week pressure builds as a ridge moves in from the west to dry things up midweek with light winds and sunny spells. Winds back southerly late in the week as the ridge moves away into Europe with pressure falling again as new Low pressure moves into the NW with further rain extending slowly SE in the rather warm conditions by then. In the extended run between days 8-15 pressure remains quite low at times near Northern Britain extending to all areas at times. There would consequently be some rain for most but some longer drier spells inbetween for southern Britain where it would consequently be quite warm too in the sunnier breaks.
UKMO shows a similar pattern over its run with High pressure moving in towards Southern Britain late Tuesday, centred over SE England on Wednesday with Low pressure centred by then in mid Atlantic. So after rain and showers in places over the weekend and early next week dry and warm conditions develop for all midweek in association with the high pressure.
ECM also follows the UKMO route with the aforementioned high pressure extending its influence until Friday at least in the south. So after a dodgy start to the week with a cool NW wind and showers the weather will settle down with sunny spells and warmer conditions for all before a slow fall in pressure late in the week brings the risk of showers back with time, first in NW Britain from Friday while further south and east it could stay dry for many up until the end of the weekend when some thundery rain is progged for southern Britain on the day 10 chart.
Todays output from the big three do seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet this morning. There is agreement on a sunshine and showery weekend followed by 24hrs or so of cool NNW winds early in the week, a build of pressure midweek bringing dry settled conditions with pleasantly warm conditions. Further out into the less reliable output pressure is shown to fall from both GFS and ECM so that by next weekend the risk of rain returns in places as the ridge moves away into Europe. However, in general terms the weather looks far from a washout in the next few weeks with the best of the weather in the south and east extending possibly to other areas at times.
Plenty of weather for all of you to discuss today. Enjoy
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Good evening. A bit busy tonight so just a quick look at the models.
All three models support a showery weekend and start to next week before a strong rise of pressure around midweek bring bright and dry conditions to most for a while. GFS goes on to show a breakdown again around the 8 to 12 day period before a second rise of pressure brings a dry settled end to the run. ECM is less supportive of next weeks ridge being anymore than a passing day or two of better conditions before a return of more unsettled conditions go on to end the run.
The overall pattern remains unchanged though GFS shows a more sustained period of dry and warm conditions next week and again later in its run while ECM makes it nothing more than a day or two wonder before Low pressure returns on the scene.
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A cloudy and wet start but still warm. 17.8C.
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Good morning. Here's my take on things today.
GFS this morning shows an unsettled 4 or 5 days now with dry, bright weather around but some showery bursts of rain around too as Low pressure trundles its way across the UK and away eastwards early next week. Pressure then builds from the south with several days of warm and humid conditions in the south again while the North remains changeable with rain at times. Longer term this unsettled weather moves back to affect all areas for a time with brief ridges of high pressure settling things down inbetween, though not with any longevity and relaiability to my eyes as pressure refuses to collapse over Greenland for any length of time.
UKMO shows the same 4 or 5 days of changeable conditions with sunshine alternating with showery conditions and a cool NW breeze early next week preceding a drier spell as pressure rises from the SW in about 6 days time. This would bring about a warm front with rain moving NE followed by humid and muggy SW winds late on next Wednesday especially in the North and West.
ECM is similar though midweek next week it maintains high pressure close to the south briefly giving a very warm few days again in the moist SW flow, though if things develop as shown most places would be cloudy and humid with drizzle and sea fog near western coasts and more appreciable rain at times still for Northern regions. By the end of the run pressure is falling again and with Low pressure shown to the NE and to the west at low latitudes rain would soon follow on from the 10 day chart.
In Summary having read the posts on here earlier and moreso on TWO prior to looking at the models I was expecting to see a major shift in the output but unless I'm missing something I can't see any major change. True, all models have upgraded the ridge next week to a degree but its also true they collapse it away after a few more days in response to more Low pressure supported by strong heights still over Greenland. In my opinion until the Greenland high can be disposed of it doesn't matter how many ridges approach the UK their attendance cannot be sustained long term with the Atlantic train continually rolling. Of course, this doesn't proclude some very warm weather such as that we've just experienced but no matter how nice a few days have been recently it hasn't left me the feeling of high summer conditions nationwide which is how I describe 'high summer', though others may disagree. I think we can expect more variations in output on next week's weather in the output over the next few days as the models clarify out the exit of the depression at the weekend affect things upstream.
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Good evening.
GFS tonight continues to show the trend as before. Low pressure crossing slowly east over the weekend will bring plenty of showers but some pleasant sunny spells too, especially on Friday. After the weekend as the Low deepens winds swing NW or North for a while with further blustery showers and cool conditions. Pressure then rises as a ridge builds in from the west before it topples away South as winds back SW and renewed Low pressure affects the North and West. Thereafter in FI pressure falls into the slack category once more with the emphasis on Low pressure closeby meaning showers for some interspersed with drier and sunnier spells and temperatures near to normal for mid August.
UKMO shows a trough crossing East in the next 24hrs with some heavy rain, now only most likely in the far south and the southeast while other areas see more sporadic rain. Friday is shown to be a good day with fresh conditions and warm sunny spells and very few showers. The weekend and early next week is shown to be governed by Low pressure crossing the UK and on into Europe with showers for most at some point through the weekend and early next week before a ridge moving in on Tuesday dries things up and brings lighter winds and sunny spells albeit just for a while.
ECM is virtually identical in pattern with its long term charts then going on to show the collapse of the ridge away SE as low pressure takes a hold once more first in the NW then extending to other areas too by the end of the run.
No change tonight with a showery spell of weather over the weekend and start of next week supported by all three models. Winds too are shown to become cool and fresh from the NW for a while early in the new week. A ridge then builds in behind the Low pressure but becomes quickly eroded by the influence of Low pressure forced on southerly latitudes simply by the persistant stubborness of the Greenland high pressure fixture. The result would be a return of further rain or showers in places by the end of next week
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A lot of middle level cloud this morning restricting the sun. Very humid feeling though. Currently 16.4C
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Good morning. A change in the weather..let's see.
GFS shows an active frontal system moving east through tomorrow replacing the warm, humid air over the UK currently. A few thundery showers are likely in the east today while tomorrow sees a spell of very heavy rain for some move east followed by fresher conditions with westerly winds and cooler air for Friday with sunny spells and the odd shower. The weekend shows a very slow progression of Low pressure east over the UK winding up in the North Sea by Tuesday with a cool NNW wind delivering further showers early next week. Further out in the less reliable part of the run pressure very slowly rises but until Saturday/Sunday of the second weekend showers would still occur in light winds and normal temperatures. High pressure then develops over the UK but is relatively short lived as slack Low pressure returns with rain and showers by days 13-15.
UKMO also shows a band of heavy rain introducing cooler air tomorrow followed by the weakest of ridges for Friday keeping things drier apart from the odd shower with sunny periods. Over the weekend a showery or cyclonic airflow develops with heavy showers widely with a cool and blustery west then NW wind developing late in the weekend and early next week with further showers as the Low deepens and moves away NE.
ECM is a case of ditto in the outlook up until Tuesday with a similar weather sequence to the others. However, longer term ECM takes the Low pressure to the NE further North through Northern Europe. High pressure is strong to the NW with Low pressure undercutting a ridge towards the SW, increasing cloud and introducing further rain into the middle of next week into the South. As this new Low moves east it gets integrated into Low pressure over Europe and re-invigorates a cool and unsettled NNE airflow by the weeks end with some pretty potent thundery showers likely by day especially in the south and east.
It's still a pretty messy picture this morning with Low pressure looking increasingly reluctant to pull away far enough away east next week to allow high pressure to move in from the west. If it does move away and high pressure does move in the synoptic setup of high pressure over Greenland would collapse any ridge fairly quickly and bring about a return to a pattern of unsettled weather once more, a solution demonstrated effectively by ECM and GFS in different ways this morning.
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GFS tonight shows cooler air spreading east over the UK within the next 48hrs with a cooler westerly flow for most then for the remainder of the week with sunny spells and scattered showers. The transition day will be Thursday for most as an acive band of quite heavy rain moves east. After the weekend a cool NW flow will be replaced by rising pressure as a ridge brings light winds, dry and bright weather for a day or two before SW winds take hold midweek with rain spreading steadily SE from the NW. Then in FI tonight a lot of dry anticyclonic weather prevails after another brief unsettled spell around days 9 to 11.
UKMO looks very similar to GFS tonight with a band of heavy rain on Thursday ushering in the cooler, fresher air followed by a mix of sunshine and scattered showers with sunny spells inbetween. The showers would be heaviest and slow moving in the North but may be well scattered and relatively few in the south for much of the time. By monday a strong and chilly NW flow develops ahead of a strong rise of pressure to the west.
ECM completes the hat trick with similar charts out to next Monday so the same mix of sunshine and showers after the band of rain on Thursday dispenses of the current warm and humid spell. Thereafter it is a little disappointing as it quickly collapses the ridge early next week and brings back unsettled weather to all by day 9 and 10 in association with low pressure to the North and West.
The pattern for the next week to 10 days seems fairly well set now with the current warm and humid conditions with a few thundery showers becoming replaced by a band of heavy rain Thursday then several days of cooler, fresher weather with sunny spells and scattered showers. From a weeks time on it looks like High pressure could dominate for a day or two though with pressure remaining High over Greenland any ridge is quickly put under pressure from the Atlantic to renew the unsettled theme again.
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A bright and sunny start developing again after any remaining low cloud burns off. warm. Currently 17.6C.
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Good morning.
GFS this morning shows the current very warm and humid air over the UK being displaced over the next 48hrs by a cooler westerly flow from off the Atlantic. With pressure Low in the vicinity of the British isles will occur on most days with winds turning NW or North by early next week with cool conditions in exposure. In the lower resolution part of the run this morning High pressure remains focused in Mid Atlantic with a slack airflow becoming established again over the UK with more heavy sometimes slow moving showers each day with normal temperatures generally.
UKMO also shows the displacement of very warm and humid air in 48hrs or so to light westerly winds and increasingly showery conditions as we move towards the weekend. Innitially showers will be well scattered apart from the chance of some thundery ones late tomorrow and early Thursday in the SE as the cooler air interacts with the very warm and humid air over the SE. By the weekend showers will be widespread and heavy at times but with some warm sunny spells inbetween.
ECM looks a little better in the longer term with the same showery picture taking us into early next week with quite a potent Low shown near the Baltic early next week bringing cool and showery NW winds to us for a while before a strong rise of pressure from the south brings us into a NW/SE split to end the run with SW and rain at times for the North and far west while the south and east become drier and more settled with a recovery in temperature too.
In Summary the breakdown to cooler, fresher weather looks fairly uneventful for most in the coming two days with some dry, very warm and humid conditions being steadily replaced to cooler, fresher conditions behind a weak cold front crossing east late tomorrow. The far SE may see something thundery from it tomorrow night though. Afterwards all models show a showery spell though as always some places will miss them and stay dry. In the long term GFS keeps things showery and slack through FI while ECM still wants to build pressure close to the south in a week or so with warmer, more humid conditions but still with some rain in the NW while areas further South and East see the best of dry, bright conditions away from Western coasts and hills.
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Good evening.
GFS this evening shows pressure falling slowly over the oncoming days. With very warm humid air over the UK outbreaks of thundery rain or thunderstorms are possible within the next 48-72hrs. The risk is most prevalent for Northern regions late tonight and at first and again later tomorrow plus perhaps more widely on Wednesday into Thursday. From Thursday cooler and fresher air is shown to ease in from off the Atlantic as winds turn westerly. Then over the weekend and early next week a deep summer depression moves NE over England and on away to the NE. Heavy rain and strong winds would sweep across England and Wales followed by cool NW winds and squally showers over Sunday and Monday. Then in the Low resolution part of the run pressure rises somewhat with showers and winds easing to dry weather with sunny spells by day 10. The end of the run shows high pressure migrating slowly east over the UK with a slow fall of pressure again by the end of the run.
UKMO tonight looks very showery. After a couple more days of light winds with humid air and high temperatures thundery rain could break out from now on principally in the North tonight and later tomorrow and in east and southeast Britain on Wednesday. Other areas could also see some rain with cooler fresher air moving east through the UK by Thursday leaving the end of the week more comfortable with a mix of sunshine and showers, heaviest in the North and West.
ECM looks much the same with a warm and sultry few days with thundery rain from a small depression crossing NE over Southeastern areas on Wednesday with cooler fresher air moving into all of Britain in its wake by Thursday. The end of the week, weekend and start of next week is shown to remain very changeable with heavy showers and sunny intervals with near normal temperatures for all. As low pressure deepens as it moves away NE a cool NW flow develops for a while before a slow improvement takes shape from the SW towards the end of the run with lighter winds and fewer showers.
The charts remain stubbornly unsettled looking tonight with a return to temperatures close to normal after the heat of the next few days in the east and south. Rain and showers is shown for all from all models with something of an improvement albeit probably temporary shown for the period around 10 days time.
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Mostly cloudy start with a rather chaotic looking sky. Humid with a light SSE wind. 17.9C
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GFS shows a couple more days of slack pressure gradients with some thundery rain breaking out in places, chiefly in the North and west innitially and the east on Wednesday. Later in the week cooler and fresher air crosses from the west with sunshine and showers to end the week as Low pressure over the North generates westerly winds for most. These turn Northwesterly for a while ahead of a weak ridge drying things up in a weeks time. Improvements are temporary as further Low pressure followed by ridges maintain the changeable theme going before a more concerted attempt of better weather arrives late in the run as High pressure develops from the SW.
UKMO shows a continuation of its theme of previous runs with weak Low pressure bringing a slow deterioration of weather through the week. However, a lot of dry weather is still likely with the thundery breakdown only sporadic in nature with the North and west at risk from heavy rain tonight and the SE on Wednesday. Thereafter things turn slowly fresher from the west with showers and sunny spells most likely in the west and North and temperatures returning to normal values.
ECM also shows a slow deterioration through the week though widespread rain is not shown. A slightly thundery breakdown could occur in places, maybe the North and west tonight and the east on Wednesday as a small thundery depression moves NE in the Straits of Dover with fresher and cooler conditions spread to all areas behind it as Low pressure lies close to the North and West by the end of the week. In the later stages of the run pressure falls over Scandinavia with a burst of cool NW winds for Britain ahead of a ridge and further breakaway Low pressure crossing the North late in the run delivering some more rain to many then.
The pattern remains unchanged this morning although as I have indicated in past days I don't think the weather for much of the time is going to be that bad. True, there will be showers or rain at times for all but amounts for some will end up being small while a few have rather a lot. Despite the humidity of the next few days I cannot currently see where any widespread thundery activity is coming from on this side of the channel and the fresher air that follows will hold just scattered showers and sunny spells with further hints of weak ridges at least delivering some dryish and pleasant enough conditions at times next week albeit short lived for most as pressure remains stubbornly high over Greenland.
Model Discussion - 27th July
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Good morning. Here is the morning look at the 00zs of GFS, UKMO and ECM.
GFS continues to show an unsettled picture as we go through the next week or so. Low pressure becomes complex and slow moving near Scotland by Friday and the weekend delivering outbreaks of rain or showers to all areas. After a warm couple of days in the SE temperatures would return to normal values everywhere by the weekend in a sometimes brisk westerly wind. By Tuesday a weak ridge crosses southern Britain but is displaced after 24hrs by more Low pressure from the NW. Thereafter and through FI a more substantial rise of pressure develops and holds ground over Southern Britain with some fine and warm conditions fairly widely away from the far North and Northwest for quite a while with some late summery weather likely.
UKMO also looks quite disturbed as Low pressure moves in close to Northern Scotland before stalling as pressure builds over Northern Europe. So rain and showers seem likely up to and over the weekend with a fresh westerly wind in tow which eases out as we move towards next week though with a continuation of showers then in the North and West while the SE looks like it could become dry for a while.
The Fax Charts today show complex troughing over the UK tomorrow with rain at some point for many. On Friday the UK lies between two sets of fronts with a rather cloudy misty day with some light rain/drizzle near western coasts and hills with heavier rain moving in from the west late on as the second set of fronts cross through overnight Friday/Saturday giving rain for all. Over the weekend things are shown to simpify with Low pressure to the North and a fresh and showery west airflow over all of the UK.
ECM continues the changeable theme this morning with rain at times between now and Sunday before a ridge close to Southern Britain dries and warms things up down here for a while early next week. Then as we move on through the week Low pressure returns with rain or showers again beginning midweek or soon afterwards before a further ridge moves in by the weekend.
It continues to look very mixed this morning from all the models with some unsettled, wet or showery days mixed with some pleasant dry weather with some sunnier periods when it will feel quite warm. There is no sustainability to any pressure pattern shown over the oncoming week or so meaning we can continue to expect widely fluctuating weather conditions from day to day.