[Today's Weather And General Chat]

Well things look good from my webcam this morning with sunny spells and developing fairweather cloud. Feels good at 14.1C currently.

http://icons.wunderground.com/webcamramdisk/g/i/gibsy/1/current.jpg?1311409018

[Model Output Discussion]

Good morning.

GFS continues to tease us with some lovely summer charts this morning and even bringing them into the hi-res part of its 00z run today. In the mean time the current slack flow of winds between North and West continue with a mix of sunny spells, a lot of dry weather and some cloudier spells too with the risk of a little rain or showers through the working week as weak disturbances run down in the flow. By next weekend though the Azores high has completed its build and lies across the UK delivering very warm and settled conditions for all. then throughout the low-res part of the run high pressure is shown to remain close by or just to the north of the UK with fine, summery weather continuing with just the chance of a thundery shower in the south as pressure falls somewhat over France.

UKMO looks less settled in the short term with a reasonable weekend away from the east coast in light NW winds and sunny spells. In the far east the deep low over Denmark throws cloud, wind and a little rain later today and tomorrow. By early next week a shallow area of low pressure moves SE through Britain bringing another of those very showery days before a more concerted rise of pressure from the Azores gives us a very promising looking 144hr chart which would probably be the forerunner of a spell of warm settled weather late in the week and over next weekend.

ECM also looks promising but takes longer to achieve it. Nevertheless, after the next 4 or 5 days of winds between North and West and the odd shower or two high pressure eventually moves in from off the Atlantic so that by the runs end a blocking area of high pressure centres on the UK with warm, settled weather likely in long sunny spells.

Collectively this morning there is still plenty of scope for good summer weather in the oncoming week or two. Pressure will gradually become high and without it ever being excessively hot there will be some very warm weather about, especially from GFS. The Euro's are slightly more tentative in the next 7 days but eventually show high pressure nearby or over our shores with the 240hrs ECM chart showing a blocking high right over the UK, something we have'nt seen for several months.

[Model Output Discussion]

Tonight's GFS shows Low pressure over Denmark over the weekend with a strong North flow brushing against eastern coastal counties with cloud and some rain here. Further west and for the majority a lighter North flow will deliver much better weather than of late with sunny spells and isolated showers. As we move through next week pressure remains quite high with a slack ridge of high pressure ensuring light winds between north and west with variable cloud and sunny spells. Further out high pressure remains in control for the most part with dry weather predominating with warm sunny spells and light winds.

UKMO also maintains winds between north and west through its 12z run with deep low pressure innitially over Denmark weakening as higher pressure feeds into the UK from off the Atlantic, albeit slowly. The weather would see a lot of dry conditions but rain near the east coast over the weekend and larger cloud amounts elsewhere at times could give a shower but for many things would stay dry and warmer with some sunshine.

ECM also suggests an OK sort of period with High pressure out to the SW extending ridges periodically towards the UK punctuated by weak troughs moving south in the North or Northwest flow at times. So, once more a lot of dry, bright weather with some short cloudier spells when a shower could occur as the weak troughs pass through. Temperatures would be quite respectable without ever being very warm through the next week. In the end stages of the run despite pressure remaining relatively high upper air conditions become more unstable with time as the well defined high pressure centre recedes somewhat with the risk of showers increasing once more.

There is still plenty of support for reasonable weather in the next 7 days or so as high pressure builds towards the UK. GFS eventually brings high pressure over the UK to universally bring dry, warm and settled conditions while ECM is less keen, keeping high pressure far enough away to allow a succession of weak troughs to run down over the UK in the flow, more meaningfully by the end of this run. As always in these setups the best weather will be towards the southeast where the highest temperatures are also likely but some reasonable weather should occur everywhere at times.

[Model Output Discussion]

Good morning.

GFS this morning shows a deep low pressure area near Denmark over the weekend with a Northerly flow (weak in the west) across the UK. The far east would be cloudy, cool and windy with some rain while areas further west have a mostly dry weekend with some sunny spells and near normal temperatures. As we move through the early to mid stages of next week a few showers can be expected anywhere before a ridge settles things down in the south by Thursday and areas further North by Friday. Further out then into the low resolution part of the run it all looks a bit messy with a couple of changeable days before pressure becomes slack with the chance of some warm sunny weather but also the risk of the odd shower thrown in as weak troughs float about in the flow.

UKMO also shows a chilly and damp weekend in the far east as the Low over Denmark throws cloud and rain in from off the North Sea to eastern coastal counties but all other areas should stay dry and bright with some sunny spells in association with higher pressure to the west. Into the new week and the High pressure ridges strongly across Britain by Thursday bringing fine settled and warmer weather to all by then.

ECM also has the same setup for the weekend while next week too shows high pressure ridging strongly towards Southern Britain. However, on this run it's a little too far south to keep things fine for the far north with cloud and a little rain here. After a few days and over next weekend high pressure collapses and winds freshen from the west as a cold front moves SE bringing some rain to most before cooler and fresher NW winds return at the end of the run in response to Low pressure over Scandinavia.

Not a bad set of runs this morning. UKMO looks good as we move into next week, while GFS is undecided about what happens in FI leaving slack pressure around the UK. ECM, finally keeps the ridge further south allowing an attack from the North late in the run. Whatever happens it looks as though the majority of the UK can enjoy some better weather next week and markedly improved weather over what we've all become accustomed to recently. How long it lasts is open to speculation but for the time being we can enjoy the prospect of decent weather for a while at least.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS tonight shows Low pressure to the east and a high pressure ridge to the west with a slack airflow blowing from between west and north up until tuesday. The weather would continue with more showers tomorrow before central and western regions have a mostly dry weekend with sunny spells. With deepening low pressure to the east a strengthening North flow would develop in the east with rain later on Saturday and Sunday. From Wednesday a strong ridge builds across Britain with fine, warm and settled conditions developing everywhere for several days. Then in the longer term pressure leaks away slowly from the North with more unsettled weather eventually returning with Low pressure developing close to our shores by the runs end.

UKMO also shows a Northerly flow with showers, chiefly in the south tomorrow with cloud and rain reaching the east coast on Saturday and Sunday while central and western regions enjoy a dry, bright weekend with sunny spells in association with a ridge of high pressure nearby. By the early days of next week the high pressure ridge builds across all of the UK bringing a spell of fine, pleasant summer conditions with temperatures on the warm side of normal.

ECM also shows a slack North flow lasting through to next Tuesday with occasional showers occurring here and there and from time to time. Temperatures would be near normal or a little above in any prolonged sunny spells by midweek. On Thursday of next week a further disturbance moving south through Britain brings an enhanced risk of showers again especially in the south as high pressure remains stubbornly to the west. Towards the end of the run the weather settles down as the ridge strengthens with winds from between west and north and variable cloud cover, pleasantly warm conditions and some sunshine for all especially in the SE.

The weather looks likely to maintain its slow improvement over the next 10-14 days. High pressure will gradually move in towards the UK but a few minor but subtle disturbances running SE in the flow spoil the otherwise straightforward weather pattern. With high pressure never really getting right across the UK winds will be maintained from the north and west throughout which will prevent really high temperatures but the SE especially should see mid to high 70's at times in any prolonged sunshine whereas with an onshore drift Northern and Western areas could see more cloud at times but should stay dry.

[Model Output Discussion]

Good morning.

GFS this morning shows a slack and showery North flow over the UK today and tomorrow before weak high pressure over the weekend ensures better conditions then away from the far east and northeast. Over the first days of next week High pressure builds further to bring quite settled conditions for most with warm sunny spells and patchy cloudier spells running down in a light Northerly. Temperatures should be comfortably in the 70's in the south by day. Through the latter half of the run a high pressure cell crosses east over the UK maintaining the warm conditions but with time a thundery disturbance leaks North from Europe to bring the risk of thundery showers to the south later and a breakdown by term of the run as low pressure advances back in from off the Atlantic.

UKMO this morning refuses to release Low pressure far away enough east to prevent it having an effect on the UK weather throughout its run today. So a light North or Northwest flow over the next 6 days with showers. There would be subtle differences in where the occurence of showers take place from day to day but the risk is there in some form or another with the highest risk in the south today and tomorrow and in the east from Sunday to Tuesday. Temperatures would be near to normal generally but it would feel pleasantly warm where showers stay away and in prolonged sunnier spells.

ECM also follows the UKMO route of maintaining a slack and at times unstable Northerly flow over the UK with sunny spells and scattered showers continuing to dominate the weather daily. Pressure is high just to the NW so few showers here but with a cool and unstable upper pool of air close to SE Britain some heavy and thundery showers could continue to occur here at times well into next week. In the latter stages of the run little overall change synoptically occurs but Low pressure as shown might become just far enough away to the east to bring dry conditions to just about all areas as high pressure moves in just close enough to the west. With Northerly winds persisting though temperatures (though ok) would not break any records.

The big three today show mixed messages with GFS the cream of the crop bringing high pressure in next week with a settled and warm spell for several days with just a slow thundery breakdown shown just in the south at first before a full breakdown at 384hrs. UKMO and ECM refuse to lose the influence of Low pressure over Europe keeping the sunshine and scattered shower scenario going under light and cooling Northerly winds. My own feeling this morning has to side with the Euro's but this shouldn't be looked upon as a washout scenario as many areas will miss the showers and with bright sunhine in plentiful supply it will feel summerlike enough without the high temperatures.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS 12z shows a weak Northerly flow for a few more days with the risk of showers remaining especially in the south and east. Winds back more NW by Monday as a weak trough crosses east bringing light rain across the UK with it. By Tuesday with a weakness still over the SE another showery day could occur here before the trend of rising pressure and better weather continues from the SW. Eventually a high pressure cell moves in across the UK with warm, settled and dry conditions for most with plenty of sunshine. In the latter stages of the run the weather becomes very warm and humid in the south with some thundery showers as lower pressure moves up from the continent. The North would probably stay dry and warm with a slow cool down in the far reaches of FI.

UKMO shows winds remaining from the North for much of the next 6 days. For tomorrow an upper disturbance brings heavy showers for the south which may extend through Friday in the southeast. Over the weekend drier weather would rule with some sunny spells and just isolated showers in the far east. Early next week a weak disturbance moves in off the Atlantic de-stabilising the air again to bring more slow moving heavy showers on Tuesday, especially in the south and east. Thereafter, it looks like the 6 day chart is setting up for a warmer, sunnier spell of weather later in the week.

ECM shows the same slack Northerly flow through the next 4 to 5 days with a mix of cloud and sunshine and some showers. The showers will be heaviest in the south and east over the next two days before the weekend should see showers being fewer and further between before further complications in the upper atmosphere re-invigorates the risk of showers again on Monday of next week. Thereafter, high pressure builds in from the SW with warm, sunny conditions developing widely over the UK for several days. Towards the end of the run high pressure slowly retreats back into the Atlantic with cooling conditions and more cloud developing on the light north or northwest flow.

It still looks highly likely that a spell of better summer weather will occur next week once we eventually lose the weak Northerly showery weather currently. In the longer term the high looks likely to retreat back westwards late in the ECM run with a slightly different evolution from GFS introducing the chance of thundery conditions in the south for a while.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS 00z output this morning begins with Low pressure moving east near Southern England today with attendant rain moving east with it over Southern England. Further North the slack North flow continues to provide showers today and this spreads south over the days Thursday through Monday with the east seeing the most showers but perhaps more generally again by Monday as Low pressure sits in the North Sea, Further out and high pressure is held much more to the SW today allowing weak troughs to ride round the top of the high and then move SE over Britain bringing the risk of rain at times with dry, bright and warm conditions restricted to being temporary features as ridges move in between the troughs with the parent high held much further SW this morning.

UKMO this morning continues to show the UK plagued by Low pressure to the east of Britain providing the risk of showers in the east at least while the west stays drier. However, as a Low pressure trough gets entwined in the flow come Sunday/Monday a band of rain could move through off the Atlantic to leave early next week under an unstable west then variable flow with slack Low pressure over England and Wales and further showers.

ECM this morning although looking the less progressive of the models keeps the weather a little unsettled between now and Monday before it is shown to have watered down the movement of high pressure into the UK next week. It instead keeps the windflow between west and north throughout its run and although a lot of dry weather is still shown under ridges of high pressure weak troughs moving down from the NW in the flow at times would keep cloud amounts large for much of the time and consequently temperatures not as high as progged yesterday. Doubtless too some rain would occur from time to time as the weak troughs pass by.

As expressed yesterday a lot of synoptics would have to pass before the evolution of ECM yesterday's output came to pass has been illustrated this morning. Both GFS and ECM show what happens when the synoptics simply don't play ball with just small differences from day to day having fundamental changes further on down the line. Of course things may well change for the better again but for now there is no doubt the weather is going to improve next week, especially in the south but those hoping for wall to wall sunshine from azure blue skies might need to think again as cloud amounts are going to be high with a continued chance of at least a little rain in places from time to time.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS tonight shows a slack Northerly flow over the UK with showers particularly for Eastern Britain while many western areas become dry from Friday. Over the weekend the model shows low pressure deepening near Northern Denmark with a trough moving in close to the east coast while another weak Atlantic one moves SE over the UK on Monday. This would mean some rain likely in the far east on Sunday while other regions see more showery conditions again as the trough runs south. Further out and High pressure builds in from the SW but is dented at times by weak troughs moving around the high and down over the UK in the continuing west or northwest flow. Nevertheless, the weather would show a marked improvement on recent events and temperatures would be rather higher too.

UKMO is still not having any of the short term improvements tonight. The showery and unsettled conditions of recent days remains for a few more days before a drier interlude over Friday and Saturday. Low pressure over Scandinavia then retrogresses west then SW to be centred near NE Scotland by Monday with a slack and showery west flow over all parts once more.

ECM also shows an unsettled theme up until the weekend with Low pressure somewhere close to the East filling slowly. A disturbance crossing close to the south coast tomorrow will bring a spell of rain across parts of southern England tomorrow. Thereafter, showers for Thursday, less on Friday and Saturday as a ridge lies close to the west. Later in the weekend weak troughs move SE as well as Low pressure near Denmark gives eastern coastal counties a dismally cool and possibly wet day Sunday. As next week progresses High pressure extends NE from the SW over Northwest Britain with lower pressure over the near continent. The High pressure exerts its influence over all of the UK then with temperatures rising above normal for many in sunny spells and dry conditions though at 240hrs it shows the high beginning a retreat back into the Atlantic.

It still looks good for an improvement next week as high pressure ridges up from the SW to bring a welcome change to warmer and sunnier conditions. GFS keeps enough of a west or northwest wind to allow weak troughs to breach the high at times while ECM has a worrying 240hrs chart showing high pressure retreating back out into the Atlantic to allow pressure to fall steadily over the UK. Also there is still the rest of the week and weekend to resolve first with the scenario of the retrogressing Low which UKMO has centred over Scotland by noon next Monday which could influence its evolution thereon. I still urge cautious optimism tonight as there is still a lot of synoptics to get through before we can verify ECM's outcome.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS this morning shows a showery few more days to come as Low pressure fills and slowly moves away to the east. Over the weekend and early next week winds back WNW with further weak disturbances moving across the UK from off the Atlantic. However, pressure slowly builds from the SW with dry and more settled weather spreading its influence North and East across the UK at the end of the hi-res part of the run. Further out things stay warm and dry for several days before complications set in from the NW and the eventual breakdown takes place from the NW by day 15.

UKMO is not too good this morning as it too shows a showery few more days with the odd longer spell of rain in the far SW tomorrow. Low pressure remains to the east and re-invigorates over the weekend as it drifts down the North Sea from Scandinavia bringing further showers to the UK late Sunday and Monday as the Atlantic ridge close to the west early in the weekend decays.

ECM looks OK with last nights pressure hike from the SW still very much in evidence. So after a showery three or four more days as low pressure fills and moves away to the east the ridge moves in by Tuesday of next week. In fact its more favourable than was shown last night as its axis is directly over the UK bringing a return to dry, bright and increasingly warm weather to our shores with sunny periods and patchy cloud. By day 10 the High is situated just off SW England with virtually dry, fine and warm conditions for most if not all of Britain.

Still not as straightforward as I would like this morning with UKMO not playing ball at the moment. It continues the theme of retrogression at the weekend which scuppers the chance in the short term to allow a strong build from the SW. It instead shows further complications in the form of further weak Low pressure coming into the mix as well early next week-something which GFS hints at too. However, GFS is more favourable towards the high pressure build in the longer term albeit more short lived while ECM shows a longer and welcome return to summer from early next week. I think there will be a few more twists and turns along the way and we need the UKMO to come on board before any champagne corks be popped.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS tonight shows Low pressure very slowly moving away east and filling over the next three or four days with the current showery setup becoming more confined to eastern areas late in the week and over the weekend. A ridge of high pressure approaches the west over the weekend meaning dry and brighter conditions but still relatively cool weather. Early next week weak disturbances move down over the UK in a NW flow before pressure builds more strongly in the lower resolution part of the run showing warmer and drier weather for all with variable cloud cover and lighter winds than of late.

UKMO follows a similar trend as Low pressure exits east taking many of its showers and rain with it by the end of the week. However a retrogressing Low moves SW into the southern North Sea by Sunday strengthening the Northerly flow over the UK again and heightening the risk of showers or rain, especially near the east coast.

ECM follows the UKMO route in bringing a retrogressing Low into the Southern North Sea by Sunday then in the following days sinking it South over Europe while pressure builds northeastwards across the NW by Monday. Then in the last few days of the run High pressure moves Northeast towards NW Britain with a light NE flow over England and Wales. After a showery week and weekend in the east the weather would steadily settle down next week with some warm sunny spells and dry weather for all. temperatures would recover to normal or above with perhaps some very warm conditions towards the southwest with time.

Tonight its ECM's turn to do a flip with a large Atlantic Anticyclone settling the weather down and warming things up over the UK next week. GFS suggested this evolution 24hrs ago and flipped back this morning so cautious optimism should be where we are at tonight. Tonights GFS shows a half-way house with high pressure staying to the SW while being close enough to give some pleasant weather in the south at least at times, more so in FI. We now need this trend to be maintained in the upcoming runs and spread to cross model agreement before we should get to excited. Nevertheless, its definately a step in the right direction tonight.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS this morning shows low pressure to the east of us for the majority of this week with bands of cloud and showers spinning around it and down over the British Isles. As the week passes showers will become more restricted to eastern areas as a ridge attempts to push in from the west. However, a retrogressing Low from Scandinavia halts that process by over the weekend with a couple of days of very showery conditions again in a rather cool North or Northwest breeze. Further out into FI and yesterdays excursion to more summery weather has evaporated as a weak ridge early next week quickly collapses to bring us back under Atlantic Low pressure together with wind and rain right through to the end of the run.

UKMO shows a showery week too as the process of filling Low pressure just to the east continues to move away east by the weekend. So heavy showers for all through the week these restricted to eastern coastal counties by Saturday with some dry, bright weather albeit still rather cool further west.

ECM shows an unsettled week for the UK with heavy showers for many, especially but not exclusively to the east before it continues its retrogression theme going next weekend. This squeezes the ridge of high pressure near Western Britain late in the week out of existence as Low pressure puts pressure on it from the west too, which eventually wins the battle to bring the UK further Low pressure, wind and rain by the runs end.

No sign of summer again this morning I'm afraid as GFS has flipped to a very unsettled operational after more promising conditions were favoured yesterday. ECM also looks decidedly unsettled throughout despite a brief window of dry weather over the coming weekend for some western regions though never very warm. The UKMO 144hrs chart is very hard to call this morning as it looks quite promising for oncoming days at first glance as it looks like the Azores ridge could affect southern Britain thereafter settling things down at least there, though it's too early to call at that range and how its shown.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS shows a showery and unsettled week to come as Low pressure remains close to Eastern Britain before moving slowly away east late in the week. Thereafter pressure slowly but surely rises from the SW so that by the days towards the end of the run High pressure sits over the UK with fine and warmer weather for all. However, we take a long time getting there and the preceding times are shown to be governed by Northerly winds, and the risk of showers in the far NE remains with dry, bright weather elsewhere albeit no heatwave.

UKMO also shows unsettled weather all week as Low pressure remains close by. It's fly in the ointment is on day 6 is that it shows a retrogressing Low from Scandinavia move SW out into the North Sea maintaining the very showery theme through the week last into the weekend too more especially to the east.

ECM also shows Low pressure in control throughout the working week with showers or longer spells of rain almost everywhere at some point or another especially in the south midweek as a small secondary depression moves through. Even by day 6 Low pressure remains to the NE with some showers in Central and Eastern areas while the west would see few showers and longer bright spells if still on the cool side. Towards the end of the run ECM as per UKMO shows a retrogressing Scandinavian Low meaning the run is less keen to bring any meaningful rise of pressure sufficient enough to settle things down with showery weather persisting in the north and East while an atlantic trough would be sliding SE near to the SW for a while. By day 9 and 10 things do look a little more promising as High pressure inches closer from the SW although winds remain from a west or northwest point with cloudier periods and the chance of rain still chiefly in the North.

In Summary GFS is the pick of the bunch as it shows gently rising pressure from the SW from the end of the week resulting in a spell of more settled weather-eventually. The Euro models are less convincing as both UKMO and ECM show a retrogressing low in a week or so which determines where the weather goes thereafter. In tonight's run ECM looks less favourable than this morning and it underlines how on a knife-edge any substantial pressure rise from the SW is and how long it is sustained.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS shows the current very unettled weather improving from the SW through the latter stages of this week. Until we get there there is still plenty of scope for heavy sahowers and rain at times in the cool North or Northwest flow over Britain. Up unto Day 8 pressure remains Low well to the NE, still close enough to affect the North and East with showers while the south and west see the driest and brightest weather close to high pressure to the SW. From day 9 to day 15 GFS brings a weakening ridge across the UK briefly but quickly brings a return to Atlantic wind and rain to all with depressions moving east close to Northern Scotland at times.

UKMO also shows an improvement but we're going to have to wait until the weekend for many to see much benefit as Low pressure is shown to be well in control through the working week with heavy showers and some longer spells of rain at times. It's next saturday when the west and south become dry and bright for many with just a few showers towards the east as a ridge closes in towards Western Britain from off the Atlantic.

ECM this morning is very similar to UKMO with an unsettled week with low pressure close to Northern and Eastern parts with a wrap around of rain and showers affecting all areas at times through the working week. pressure is then building from the Atlantic Northeastwards towards NW Britain late in the week with a very slow influence of this gradually extending across the UK by next weekend and beyond, bringing drier and less showery conditions as well as warmer weather too across all areas bar the far east and southeast by next wednesday.

Improvements are going to be slow but if we're patient there are signs of somewhat better weather on the horizon but how long it will last is open to debate (not long if the GFS model is anything to go by). Through the working week it looks unsettled but slowly and surely showers and rain will become more and more restricted to eastern areas by the weekend with the west becoming dry and bright by next weekend. We could end up over next weekend with a ridge having its axis SW-NE over us which could end up being a benefit to us longer term if it can hold as the Euro low pulls south. It's a case of wait and see as patience will be a virtue this week with twists and turns likely along the way.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS tonight shows Low pressure moving in over Scotland tomorrow then hanging around in one shape or form for many days to follow. There would be rain or showers for all areas with just short drier and brighter interludes inbetween. It would be windy and cool too away from the Low centre with temperatures on the low side, especially in the rain. In the lower res end of the run things do very slowly improve but it is all relative as even then winds remain from the North or Northwest with further showers periodically from troughs running through on the breeze and temperatures suppressed to normal levels at best.

UKMO is also very unsettled tonight with Low pressure dominant near Northern and Eastern Britain throughout. There would be plenty of rain or showers and cool temperatures especially in the persistant rain. However, there would be some drier and brighter spells too where it will no doubt feel a little bit warmer if you can get out of the breeze.

ECM is also low pressure dominated with a centre meandering around the UK for two or three days from tomorrow before drifting just to our east where it also hangs around for 3 or 4 days. In essence it means unsettled weather with rain or showers and strong winds at times lasting through the whole of next week. In the final days of the run pressure builds North to the west of Britain but not quite close enough to restrict the UK, especially the east from seeing further showers in a cool North breeze. The west and northwest though could see some lengthy dry spells though by day 9 and 10 albeit a little on the cool side still but with low pressure close to East Anglia on day 10 there would be plenty of heavy showers still in the south and east..

In summary tonight things still look decidedly unsettled with Low pressure shown on all models to last through next week. It seems increasingly likely that hopes for drier weather hinge on a build of pressure North through the Atlantic in a week or so's time moving east enough to cut off the North flow from the Low pressure's over Scandinavia and the near continent. On tonight's output I wouldn't place much money on it happening with my hunch being that of the ridge collapsing with more Low pressure rolling down from the NW in time.

***No report tomorrow as away working in the Cotswolds-back on Sunday or if anything interesting to report tomorrow evening.***

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS this morning is awful for summer with low pressure moving in late today and tomorrow and never leaving our shores throughout the rest of the hi-res part of its run. put simply after rain moves in tonight and tomorrow there is likely to be rain in most places on all days at some point or another out to next Saturday. Some of the rain will be heavy and in the form of showers but it will be cool and breezy with just short bright spells. In the low res end of the run pressure does slowly build toards the NW but for much of the time it is too far North and West for us to tap into anything decent on this run meaning winds remain with a Northerly component with further showers at times especially towards the east.

UKMO is also poor with the same Low pressure crossing the UK slowly over the next three days to then prove reluctant in moving away leaving a legacy of rain and showers well into next week in rather cool conditions.

ECM has also backtracked from last night's operational in as much as keeping Low pressure influential to our weather throughout this morning. It brings the main centre over the UK from tomorrow untll Tuesday before a gentle filling process takes place before the whole setup is rejuvenated late in the run from Scandinavian Low pressure which moves back SW towards us maintaining the cool and very changeable weather going.

In Summary after last night's hope, things have backtracked somewhat this morning with all chance of the Azores high taking command all but vanished from ECM while GFS has it building too far North and West of the UK to bring us any meaningful effect. Instead it looks a changeable couple of weeks ahead with rain at times for all and just brief dry spells when temperatures may crawl up to comfortable levels.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS 12z tonight throughout the Hi Res portion of its run maintains cool and unsettled conditions throughout as deep Low pressure areas remain near or over the UK with periods of rain or heavy showers in all areas on all days. There would be a few drier and brighter periods but these would be fleeting and short-lived. In the Lower Resolution end of the run things do improve slowly as Low pressure weakens and winds become light with showers gradually giving way to a trend to drier conditions with longer drier spells between intermittent rain. In response to the drier spells temperatures would recover somewhat especially in the South.

UKMO looks very unsettled throughout its run tonight with Low pressure trundling slowly across Scotland through the weekend before moving slowly away NE early next week, unfortunately only to be replaced by a new centre near Scotland. Throughout the period bands of heavy rain followed by showers would occur widely throughout the UK with just short brighter spells. It will always be fairly cool and breezy though for most.

ECM is also very unsettled with the period from late tomorrow until the end of the next working week with Low pressure over or close to the east of the UK bringing periods of rain and heavy showers with brief brighter spells inbetween. However, as next weekend comes along pressure rises steadily from the SW with much drier and slightly warmer conditions extending slowly across Britain with winds blowing from the west or northwest.

In Summary the outlook is basically unsettled with periods of rain and showers for all areas, supported by all three models. In the latter stages of the runs of GFS and more especially ECM a further step in the right direction to brighter, drier and warmer conditions is implied as the Azores Anticyclone moves in closer towards SW Britain. As I indicated this morning this trend needs to be continued with cross model support for further subsequent runs. Tonight is the second run supporting this theory. I await tomorrows output hopefully for further progress.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS through the Hi res part of its run continues to show active Low pressure over or close to Northern Britain through the weekend and easrly next week with rain and showers circulating around, affecting all parts at times. In the cloud, wind and rain it would feel cool with just the briefest of sunny intervals at times to lift the gloom. Further out into FI and the unsettled theme is kept alive with Low pressure just to the east and North keeping winds from a Northerly quadrant and days of heavy showers in a cool North flow. Right at the end of FI there is a tentative rise of pressure as things become slightly quieter, though not entirely settled.

UKMO looks very unsettled too again this morning with Low pressure near or over Northern Britain from Saturday on with rain and showers moving through frequently on the brisk west or Northwest winds. Winds do become a little lighter by day 6 with some longer brighter spells between the showers though developing Low pressure west of Ireland at this point would likely bring in more rain in subsequent days.

ECM is also Low pressure based this morning bringing its centre down over North and East Britain through the weekend with strong winds and rain and showers in its circulation affecting all areas from late tomorrow until Tuesday. In the latter stages of its run after a few more days of rain and showers from weakening Low pressure slipping southeast over the UK the weather turns drier and brighter, as signs of the Azores High inching closer to the UK diverts Low pressure further North and East away from the UK, or at least away from the south. However, with a weak cold pool hanging on to the SE at day 10 some showers would still be possible there.

In Summary things don't look quite as bleak this morning-not that they could look any worse than the 12zs. There is still a very disturbed week or so to come with rain and heavy showers nationally in cool conditions. From around Day 10 of ECM and the latter part of the GFS run the Azores High is shown trying to encroach towards the UK tempering the flow of unseasonal low pressure and offering something a little drier if not particularly warm. We do need to see this slight improvement develop further and given cross model support in the oncoming runs and days for a trend to be given credibility.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS shows Low pressure moving over the UK in the next few days with further secondary fronts and disturbances following on through next week to maintain rather cool conditions with rain or heavy showers and very blustery winds for all. In the lower resolution part of the run the trend shows a slow improvement for all as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west though its term is temporary as further Low pressure begins to gain the upper hand from off the Atlantic by the runs end.

UKMO looks very disturbed tonight with an unseasonably deep Low pressure becoming slow moving and complex in the vicinity of the UK through the weekend and through the early part of next week. The weather would become wet late Friday and overnight as a front crosses east through Britain with heavy showers or longer spells of rain and high winds through the weekend. Early next week with low pressure still close by further rain and showers will occur with the rather cool conditions persisting outside of the few sunny intervals.

ECM follows the same route with Low pressure arriving Friday night/Saturday morning with a band of rain clearing on Saturday to be followed by frequent heavy and prolonged showers in cool conditions to last through the weekend. Early next week Low pressure remains in control close to the UK with further heavy showers and some longer spells of rain with just brief sunny intervals and fresh, cool winds. In the latter stages of the run Low pressure remains in control near Northern Britain with winds from the Northwest or west maintaining rain at times for all, especially in the North and West.

In Summary tonight at the risk of sounding like a broken record the weather continues to look distinctly inclement from the beginning of the weekend on. All models show deep Low pressure over or near the UK through through the weekend and much of next week with showers or longer periods of rain for all with strong winds and cool conditions overall too. GFS offer a small crumb of comfort late next week as a ridge from the Azores high crosses briefly but ECM nullifies this chance with no let up at all out to day 10 with Low pressure still well in command over the UK.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS in the hi-res part of its run shows a weak ridge of high pressure over the UK for today and tomorrow giving way to deep Low pressure trundling across Northern UK over the weekend and on into the North Sea. As this moves away early next week a new Low crosses east North of Scotland to maintain a cool and fresh westerly air type over the UK. Mostly dry weather up to Friday will be replaced with an unsettled spell over the weekend with rain, wind and showers for all and generally cooler conditions lasting through to the end of the hi res part of the run. In the Low res section the trend is to build high pressure across Britain from the Azores to eventually bring warm and settled conditions for a while.

UKMO looks very unsettled this morning with a deep low moving across the UK to the North Sea over the weekend and another one joining it centred over Ireland by 144hrs. Away from East Anglia and the far SE where there could be some rain today and tomorrow most other areas should be OK as a weak ridge moves through but rain will reach the west late Friday and cross all of the UK overnight to leave the weekend and early next week unsettled and relatively cool with prolonged rain or heavy showers for all at certain stages over the period in brisk winds.

ECM also looks almost Autumnal this morning as the same Low pressure deepens on Friday to be positioned in the North Sea for Saturday with further reinforcements moving in from off the Atlantic early next week to maintain the sometimes wet, windy and disturbed spell with rain and heavy showers for all between the briefest of drier spells. Then yet another depression moves across later next week so that at the end of the run we end up with deep Low pressure over Scandinavia and a cool unstable Northerly over the UK with further heavy showers, especially in the North and East.

In Summary this morning the weather looks set for a disturbed spell from Friday. Support for wet and/or showery conditions from Friday on is 100% and it's only GFS who offers crumbs of comfort in their low res part of its run with High pressure building NE across the UK. However, until that comes within the T144hrs range its integrity cannot be justified yet particularly as once more its not well supported in its ensembles.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS shows a weak ridge over the UK for the next couple of days with sunny spells and just the odd shower. Over the weekend and early next week low pressure moves SE over the UK with wind and rain followed by heavy showers the order of events over the weekend. As this Low moves away early next week further Low pressure moves east North of Scotland maintaining the changeable weather pattern. Further out into FI the weather steadily is shown to become increasingly settled and summery as the Azores high extends NE over the UK giving warm, sunny spells for all. However, it should be noted that it doesn't fit well into the ensembles which shows the above as an outlier.

UKMO also shows a reasonable couple of days under a ridge as it moves gently east. Over the weekend Low pressure will deepen as it moves southeast slap bang over the UK by Saturday and Sunday with heavy showers in brisk winds for all areas. By Monday the Low exits slowly east but maintaining a showery and cool Northerly flow with a new trough west of Ireland poised to breakaway SE towards Southern and Western Britain thereafter.

ECM also shows a ridge crossing the UK tomorrow and Thursday before falling pressure over Friday is in association of a deepening Low pressure developing over the UK by noon Saturday with rain and heavy showers becoming widespread for all areas. By Sunday an unseasonably deep low lies in the North Sea with strong NW winds over the UK with heavy showers for all at times. Through the beginning of the new week little overall change occurs with renewed Low pressure sliding SE to become a huge Low complex over and around the UK. Areas of heavy rain and showers would occur everywhere with just short drier and brighter spells mixed in. The run concludes with a slow pressure rise developinging with showers then restricted more to the north and east by day 10.

In Summary tonight a decidedly unsettled spell looks likely from Friday with Low pressure shown near to the UK for several days. UKMO takes the Low to the east and fills it before new low pressure is likely to develop as an Atlantic trough runs southeast into the Northerly flow. ECM confirms renewed Low pressure too as the whole Low pressure pattern becomes complex prior to a slow rise of pressure in slack winds by day 9 and 10. GFS shows a different evolution beyond the middle of next week with a strong extension of the Azores high extending across the UK with fine, warm and summery weather although this is not well supported in the ensembles.

[Model Output Discussion]

Sorry but i dont agree, the weather is warm and settled this week and there are signs of a pressure build out to our west next week which could block out the LP systems from the west after that stalling low fills out, GFS 00Z OP offers plenty of hope for a warm settled spell, that stalling low looks like it could have humid air mixed in so with light winds it could feel very pleasant indeed with places missing out on showers completely, this summer for eastern, southern and central areas has been quite dry with above average sunshine, nothing as bad as some say.

The weather can hardly be classed as warm and settled here. Yesterday was summery but today is overcast and chilly. Of course you are perfectly entitled to disagree with the account I make in my summaries but I always state what's shown and never base it on 'could's' and 'might happens'. As it stands the weather beyond this Friday Nationally and not IMBY can only be described as unsettled, windy and often wet.

Although I read this thread every day, I don't often post here but with all the doom and gloom over the models it is making me feel a little depressed. I was just wondering if i can take any comfort by all this unsettled weather bringing the likelhood of thunderstorms (as in last weeks low pressure) or are we talking days of cloudy, windy, wet weather more akin to days in October or November?

At least if there were some storm chasing opportunities it would lift my spirits a little.

Apologies if this is off topic btw - although my question is regarding the Model Output is suppose

There should be plenty of opportunity for thunderstorms once the innitial band of rain passes on Friday. The weekend and beyond offers scope for some quite big storms as the air will be cool and unstable aloft and with the solar input at it's maximum now anywhere could see a storm or two.

[Model Output Discussion]

UKMO this morning shows the chance of showers today as an upper feature gets caught in the circulation of thundery Low pressure over NW Europe. This then moves away NE tomorrow leaving the UK under a weak ridge which lasts through Thursday too with sunny spells and the slim chance of an inland afternoon shower. From Friday and over the weekend a deepening Low pressure moves slowly ESE across the North and out into the North Sea and NW Europe for Monday bringing rain, cool and windy weather followed by heavy showers for all from late Friday.

GFS is similar to UKMO up to the weekend but then shows an unseasonably deep Low trundling slowly SE across the UK over the weekend. Friday will see rain and freshening winds move through the UK with strong winds and heavy, squally showers or longer spells of rain then through the weekend. The Low is shown to be reluctant to leave our shores early next week ambling around the near continent, still close enough to give southern and eastern regions further heavy showers at times in the Northerly flow. In FI the trend shows slightly drier weather moving in as a ridge slowly builds over the NW while winds maintain a northerly element further south and the risk of showers remain.

ECM is also a bit of a horror show this morning with the same relatively quiet weather lasting till Friday before it too shows deep Low pressure covering Britain over the weekend with rain spreading east Friday followed by squally, heavy showers over the weekend and some longer spells of rain too almost anywhere. By Tuesday the Low moves into the Southern North Sea only to make way for another centre to follow its counterpart in setting up shop over Southern Britain by Day 9 and 10 maintaining the very disturbed spell.

In Summary if anything the charts are worse still today with no prospect of nationwide warm and settled weather within the next two weeks from any of the operationals this morning. Rainfall amounts for many could be quite high in places over this spell and despite the odd warm sunny spell between the showers temperatures are bound to be suppressed. Winds will be fresh too blowing from a Northerly element for much of the time. ECM is particularly unpleasant today with a re-run of this weekends Low later next week keeping the showery, damp theme going while GFS just about offers something a little drier for the North and West deep in FI under a tentative ridge.

[Model Output Discussion]

GFS tonight shows Low pressure moving NNE from France to Germany dragging some thundery rain across SE England tomorrow. A ridge of high pressure then extends fair weather in the NW to all areas through Thursday and Friday with increasing cloud and wind later on Friday. Over the weekend Low pressure deepens as it moves ESE from the Atlantic over Scotland then on into the North Sea with a wet and windy spell for all followed by squally showers later in the weekend. This sets the trend for a further 4-5 days as Low pressures continue to move ESE over the UK maintaining very changeable weather everywhere. In the latter part of FI winds fall lighter as Low pressures cross further North so some longer drier spells seem likely between the showers with temperatures a little more respectable, especially in the south.

UKMO is very similar through the working week with falling pressure Friday bringing an active Low pressure and trough crossing East through the UK to bring wind and rain to all followed by sunshine and squally showers late Saturday and through Sunday in rather cool conditions.

ECM is similar too but deepens the Low more this weekend with its location centred on the English/Scottish borders by noon on Saturday. There would be heavy rain for all with squally, heavy and prolonged showers following on behind. Hopes of improvements are shortlived as the Low fills by Monday near Denmark with a continuation of cool, blustery winds and showers for most of Britain before renewed Low pressure moves east to the North of Scotland maintaining very unsettled conditions with rain, showers and strong breezes from the West or Northwest.

In Summary a decidedly unstable and windy spell seems likely with rain or showers for all from Late Friday on. The longevity of the spell is likely to be for a week or so with GFS gradually drying things up from the south in deep FI while ECM shows hints of drier if still cool conditions after day 10. In the meantime it seems likely that the UK will see at least some dry, bright and reasonably warm conditions up until Friday although exceptions in this period could still mean rain or showers for a few in the next four days.

[Model Output Discussion]

The overall N Hemispheric pattern has not really changed, nor are there any significant changes progged, so I'd think it far more likely that GFS will fall into line with ECM and UKMO, rather than visa-versa. We have already

seen this happen a few times across the last week or so, therefore viewing GFS as something of a straw to clutch (again) is probably unwise imo.

And no sooner than the next run GFS has fallen more in line on the 6z so I think we can safely say that a very unsettled second half to the weekend is progged.