Polar Maritime

The detail for the UK has not changed much for the UK next week Shed, beyond yes as always.

Looks like it could be a Halo CME, We should get a glancing blow at worst.

That's because the charts last week have changed in detail a little. Which is very normal.

But the answer to that would not come from looking at the graph, but maybe why the data is missing ?

Hi diessoli, Im aware of the differences and the fact that the 30s have vanished, My Question was more why..?

Yes Pit, Meto forecast was a little poor to say the least.. A breezy night with heavy showers, the heavy'est at 2.46am at 4.8mm p/h, An overnight low of 11.5c. Currently; Showers have now cleared leaving patchy cloud and sunny spells. Temp 12.9c Wind W/N/W 4mph Dp 11.1c Humidity 89% Rain since Midnight 3.6mm Rain last 24hr 6.9mm

Welcome Xihuitle. R.J.S seems to be an expert in this field. Will try and find the link to his work, it's somewhere on here.. Here we are.. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75437-roger-smiths-developing-lrf-model/page-2

SIGNIFICANT FLARE: Sunspot AR1818 erupted on August 17th at 1824 UT, producing a long duration M3-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action: The movie shows material from the blast site flying into space. It is too soon to say whether Earth is in the line of fire.http://www.spaceweather.com/

M3.3 Solar Flare a few hours ago from sunspot 1818..

Thought i would pop this in here, some beautiful scenes from the Arctic while NASA gather data..

Thanks Sparky

Can anyone more knowledgeable than me clear this one one up... NASA Massively Tampering With The US Temperature Record

CHANCE OF FLARES: The face of the sun is very quiet. However, two sunspots, AR1817 and AR1818, have 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic fields that harbor energy for significant eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of M-classsolar flares on August,17th. http://www.spaceweather.com/

A dry night, with patchy cloud and an overnight low 11.1c Currently; Dry, with milky sky's. Temp 12.7c Dp 11.3c Wind S/S/W 4mph Humidity 91%

There are some very awkward personal post's on here this morning.. The models show what they show, the weather on the other hand does what it wants. Why the need to split hairs is beyond me.

AURORA WATCH: Earth is entering a stream of fast solar wind, and this could spark auroras tonight at high latitudes. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of polar geomagnetic storms.http://www.spaceweather.com/

A cloudy night with heavy persistent showers, An overnight low of 14.6c. Currently, Wet and cloudy with moderate rain. Temp 14.9c Wind 3mph N/W Gusting 18mph Humidity 96% Rain Since Midnight 10.7mm

A mostly dry night with the odd light shower, An overnight low of 14.9c. Currently, Dry and overcast. Temp 15.1c Wind W/N/W 2mph Humidity 93% Dp 14.8c Rainfall Since Midnight 0.6mm

Marine Ecosystems heading pole-wards. Throughout the oceans, plankton and the animals that feed off them are seeking cooler waters as the world warms. As this ecological transformation happens before our eyes over the coming decades everything we thought we knew about the distribution of life in the oceans is going to change beyond recognition. On a more practical level, fisheries will shift from one country's territorial waters into another, exacerbating existing conflicts over this resource that billions rely on as their main source of protein. A review paper published last week by scientists from 17 institutions in 8 countries summarised decades worth (in some cases up to three centuries) of global data contained in over 1,700 peer reviewed studies covering 857 species, in order to examine the shift in the lifestyles of marine organisms during this period. It was published in Nature Climate Change, and was the first ever study undertaken on a global scale, in preparation for the next IPCC report due out next year. Most previous studies were local and focussed on one or a few species over a limited time period. Their database will also serve as a baseline from which to assess future changes as the transformation of the oceans continues. They studied the distribution, movements, demography and life cycle of marine ecosystems and their changes through time. I leave you with their final conclusion: ' recent climate studies show that patterns of warming of the upper layers of the world’s oceans are significantly related to greenhouse gas forcing. Global responses of marine species revealed here demonstrate a strong fingerprint of this anthropogenic climate change on marine life. Differences in rates of change with climate change amongst species and populations suggest species’ interactions and marine ecosystem functions may be substantially reorganized at the regional scale, potentially triggering a range of cascading effects'. http://www.imedea.uib.es/noticias.php?nid=MTI2Ng%3D%3D http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/3353/20130806/oceans-warm-marine-life-moves-poleward-changes-breeding-patterns.htm http://climatetimes.com/article/marine-species-head-cooler-waters-planet-warms http://www.futurity.org/earth-environment/sea-creatures-race-toward-cooler-waters/ http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/smartnews/2013/08/climate-change-is-sending-marine-life-to-the-poles-in-search-of-colder-waters/ Original article, paywall access: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1958.html

Comet ISON lives on! (we think...) Well this is rather exciting news: Comet ISON lives on! (we think...) For several weeks now, ground-based observers have been blind to Comet ISON as our local star was sitting directly between us and the comet. We knew this was a temporary problem, and we expected that by the end of August, ground-based observers would begin to detect Comet ISON, so long as it hadn't fizzled out during that time. So now I am delighted to share two pieces of good news: first, that ISON is still alive and well, and secondly that it has been recovered a couple of weeks earlier than I would have expected! Bruce Gary, http://www.brucegary.net/ISON/ Is this what we think it is?!In the center white square, that fuzzy shape could well be Comet ISON! The above image was recorded by amateur astronomer Bruce Gary using his 11-inch telescope at Hereford Arizona Observatory, and shows what appears to be a comet, situated exactly where Comet ISON is currently predicted to be! Yes, the comet looks faint in this image, but it was only a few degrees above the horizon when this image was recorded, and the images are being somewhat washed out by twilight. It's actually a remarkable feat to have imaged ISON this close to the Sun, and Bruce is to be applauded for that! It should be noted that these images are awaiting confirmation, and indeed Bruce himself states very clearly: "[a] final claim that this is Comet ISON should be based on another clear morning's observations showing the expected motion". This is a critical point: while this certainly looks like a comet, does it move the way we would expect it to be moving? If it does, then that's another valuable piece of evidence that we are indeed looking at what we hope it is. If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck... More here..http://www.planetary.org/blogs/guest-blogs/2013/08131117-comet-ison-lives-on-we-think.html

Another cool dry night with patchy cloud, An overnight low of 9.2c. Currently, Dry with hazy sunshine. Temp 9.6c Dp 8.6c Wind S/S/E3mph Humidity 97% Rain Since Midnight 0mm

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Two new sunspots are growing rapidly in the sun's southern hemisphere. One of them, AR1817, is directly facing Earth and poses a threat for X-class solar flares. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot's development over the past 48 hours: http://www.spaceweather.com/

Another cool dry night,with an overnight low of 9.9c Currently, Dry and cloudy with sunny intervals. Temp 11.2c Dp 9.8c Wind 4mph West Humidity 88% Rainfall Since Midnight 0mm

SOLAR FLARES: After weeks of quiet, solar activity is picking up. New sunspot AR1817 is crackling with C- and M-class solar flares. An M1.5-class eruption on August 12th (1041 UT) created a wave of ionization in the upper atmosphere above Europe and might have hurled a coronal mass ejection toward Earth.http://www.spaceweather.com/