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Polar Maritime

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    Model Output Discussion - Early October Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    There seems to be a bit more continuity, at least from the GFS, over recent runs. Mobile conditions until at least the medium term. I'm still surprised at how quickly the HP block broke down, but I guess that is how it's been so much this year. The conditions late next week look interesting, quite a powerful jet propagating across the Atlantic, with more of a southerly track.

    There are still hints from the models in recent days that a more stable upper flow pattern will be set up in the longer term - I still think we will end up with an extensive cold pool and trough over Europe and an upper ridge to the west and north. Meantime, some stormy conditions to come.

    I agree, The models keep on throwing out very stormy weather next week and beyond. Something we have not seen much of in the last 2/3 Autumns, and a pattern that is long over due....

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowrob

    for those like me who have difficulty remembering these abbreviations

    EPO=Eastern Pacific Oscillation

    perhaps someone will enlighten me and others as to what WPO is - maybe Western ?

    Use of these teleconnections is, at best, very difficult to link to effects in this part of the world , at worst near enough impossible.

    AO - The Arctic Oscillation

    NAO - The North Atlantic Oscillation

    PNA - The Pacific North American Oscillation

    EPO - The Eastern Pacific Oscillation

    WPO - The Western Pacific Oscillation

    MJO - The Madden-Julian Oscillation

    PDO - The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

    NPO - The North Pacific Oscillation

    AAO - The Antarctic Oscillation

    QBO - The Quasi-biennial Oscillation

    All of these teleconnections, plus MANY more that are minor or are simply NOT yet known, are pebbles and rocks dropping into the fluid atmosphere. Each one has positive, neutral, and negative phases, and each one impacts the atmosphere via waves rippling outward from their regions of origin.

    Hope this helps John.

    Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowrob

    I'm confused now. Is this Climate Change or Global Warming ??

    When they realised they were wrong, instead of them changing it to Climate Cooling and looking realy stupid... They opted for Climate Change. Which to me is even more bizarre, as the Climate has and it always changing, And we will never be able to control it. TEITS may be onto something there regarding the summer forecast, this winters going to be an interesting one IF there's a pattern to follow...

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