bobbydog

that's what model watching does to you!

is it really relevant though nick? as we didnt have an SSW in the offing back then

maybe even earlier BA. i would advise anyone hanging on the GFS later stages to stop doing so and start reading Ian Ferguson's posts!

in that the model output will not (even remotely) accurately reflect how the SSW will affect the outcome as yet even though the SSW is beginning, there is no effect as yet on the troposphere, therefore the input data will not be affected by it yet. which would mean that the models will, for the time being, keep chugging along as if there were no SSW

in case anyone missed it and due to some posts commenting on the longer range model output, some people obviously did-

very true john. this was certainly the case just two and a half years earlier- http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/dday/

i think this is about right. (from what i have read) no-one knows the extent of any propagation from the strat until it actually happens, therefore the models will attempt to 'second guess' the effects until the actual data becomes available. as has been said, there will be a wide variation in outcomes until the models get a handle on the effects. i think during this time, FI will become earlier in the run until a clear pattern emerges. having said that, if there is a secondary warming, a clear pattern might not emerge for some time

just to temper any negativity on the forum today, i'd just like to remind people of the professionals' take on the current situation-

ok thanks QS

as ian has said, we could see some wild variations in the output soon, however, at the moment the output is fairly consistent. if we do get a change to cold weather, it could be heralded by quite a nasty winter storm-

its very sad but she is in a lot of pain. however we are looking for a replacement, on loan or a re-home. preferrably one that can be ridden by kids as well as adults, if you know of any?

thanks QS, i doubt she'll have the chance now, she's booked in for tomorrow morning. i thought there would be a few days before they could do it. i suppose its one of those things you have to get done quickly once you make the decision. it would be nice to get a last minute reprieve though

horsham in sussex. thing is she will need ongoing expensive treatment. unless someone is prepared to take her on i doubt a charity could help much. its just so horrible to have to have her put down

happy new year everyone!! on a slightly sadder note- does anyone have the time and money to take on an arthritic horse? only lots of money will help ours now, which we dont have and her days are numbered- in single figures

you can't see a route to cold? the drink is giving you a false sense of warmth..... happy (and snowy.....) new year! i can see a route to cold-

drop that LP anomaly south and east a bit and we have ourselves a winter.....

yet again, greenland blocking appears in FI- strat vortex torn apart-

well, after hacking through the undergrowth of negativity on here and taking on board the informative, sensible posts, this is (what i have concluded) the models are showing- after a few more days of unsettled weather, high pressure builds, with milder more settled weather for the following week or so. cross model agreement with little doubt here, therefore little more to be said about that. now for the interesting part. we are approaching an SSW, a virtual certainty, bearing in mind the strat is easier to forecast in that it does not have the wild variations of the troposphere. we are already beginning to see signs showing in the models of the effects of the SSW. indeed, the 00z shows a classic greenland high even at this early stage, as one possible outcome/effect. the 06z, though not as impressive, shows a disrupted, weakened vortex. it even shows a strong PV over greenland which weakens and disintegrates. mid january has long been touted as a significant point in this winter and here we are seeing it unfold. how it unfolds, we don't know yet but we are seeing a significant change which hugely increases our chances of wintry weather. i don't know about anyone else but i'm well aware that it will be settled and reasonably mild for a week or so. however, i'm doing what thread title says- hunting for cold....

that and a Sudden Stratospheric Warming!

i thought it was, just wasn't sure. in which case, as you say, we should see some colder runs appearing as retrogression is a big step for the models to be showing, without good reason, is it not?

has anyone noticed, over the last few frames of the GFS, the HP over us actually moves west. i'm no expert but thats not something i've noticed modelled often. is this the sign of the pattern change and the GFS starting to factor in the strat warming?

just to add to my earlier post, the ECM ensemble mean is not a million miles away from the operational either- mean- op-

i suppose we're all pinning our hopes on it as there seems to be little else on the horizon. having said that, the ECM does offer a crumb of hope without any warming- what would be the likely evolution after this?

what worries me,(and i'm the eternal optimist) is that the SSW does take weeks to have an effect, only for it to be in the wrong place. we would have waited hopefully... for nothing. mind you, if this winter does turn out to be a disappointment, there will be some compensation - james madden will be proven wrong... again...

not really, what we want to see is the azores high pushing up towards scandi. any link with a russian high needs to be in that direction, with the trough dropping into europe