bobbydog

which is why he does a summary update twice a day to reflect what the models are showing . if the models show something totally different in 12 hours, so will his summary.

probably this- polar strat vortex obliterated!

latest from the GFS-

i realise that but with the current output it would have been nice to see something definitive to affect our weather. it may do so yet but it still doesn't instill confidence towards major changes. however it is interesting to watch and see how things turn out

well, just looked through the various models on metiocel on a straw clutching mission and i can't find anything hopeful. the only thing left (forecast-wise) is the strat warming. even then, chiono is not confident it will be enough. i had a good feeling about that but one post from him has peed on my fireworks a little. the only positive things i can find are that there is still a lot of uncertainty and even the Meto are hinting at possible colder weather in mid january. the other thing is that looking through the archives, the current weather patterns are not a million miles away from december 1990.... (remember feb 1991?) anyway, if carsberg did model runs..... well they don't- but they do make beer and at least i know my fridge will be cold, even if the weather isn't.....

all getting very interesting! if the GFS is as accurate as has been mentioned, then this warming is almost guaranteed. it ties in with many small clues, GP has been confident of some changes at this timescale, someone posted that the highways agency have been told to stockpile grit for mid jan and even the MetO 30 day forecast has an ambiguous hint- "Later in this forecast period there is greater than average uncertainty though some marked changes of weather type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases." the less certain aspect is how (if at all) it will affect us. what i would like to know is, is this (predicted) warming event 'bigger' than usual? or of a standard type? basically, could someone explain what we are seeing forecast and what its likely effects on the northern hemisphere would be?

check the date of those charts then have a look through the archives. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=12&year=1990&hour=0&map=5&mode=0 not identical obviously but weather patterns were quite similar to now. point being, our current pattern does not discount some classic cold.... eventually.....

any similarities?.....

early promise but inconclusive really. now, what is really catching my interest is this-

i was just going to say the opposite- there looks to be less energy coming across the atlantic as per the 06z and apparently even less than the 06z. look how that turns out! i'm sensing the atlantic running out of steam and a colder (or at least different) pattern emerging. a few more runs required but i think the new year could be the turning point of this winter....

is it feasible though? aren't we constantly told to "bin" the 06z?.......

obviously FI won't happen but it does show that a return to cold is not beyond the realms of possibility.... could this be the reason why?........

the GFS predicted the end of the world in F.I. - it was never going to happen....

i think you misunderstood my post. read it again then add a pinch of sarcasm.....

there have been so many "slight shift westwards", that the siberian high should have passed over us about a week ago!!

forget the models, it's going to snow. i saw 3 fallow deer in a field this morning, one of them was completely white!! an omen......

time to wake up and smell the coffee now! we can hope for the christmas miracle but lets get real. the synoptics, (as they stand) are nowhere near any good for anything but a few occasional flirts with snow, this side of christmas or even new year. on the positive side, things can, (though unlikely) change rapidly and unexpectedly. there looks to be a possible strat warming on its way and our best winter weather usually happens after new year. we may appear to some to be in standard dismal winter mode- and we are, as far as the UK is concerned but on a hemispheric level, its far from standard! we may have to wait a while but i still think this winter will be memorable for all the right reasons......

" Exceptionally large areas of low pressure will also become problematic at times throughout this winter, bringing many parts of the country to a standstill from some very heavy falls of snow. Heavy snowfall and below-average temperatures are likely to result in lying snow on the ground for some quite lengthy periods of time across many parts of the country throughout this winter too (December to February). " how ironic is that first sentence.......? heh heh guess who.......

exactly my point. the complexity and uncertainty makes model watching much more interesting!

is it though?...... (something you should already know but...) the GFS is run four times a day with a slightly different data set each time, therefore it will come out with a different outcome each time. if the variances of each data set are small and the weather patterns are less chaotic then the outcomes will be more consistent. also the GFS has a longer range than the other "reliable" models therefore the outcomes at the end will be further apart. (looking at the ensembles demonstrates this well) don't forget, each run shows a possible outcome, none are impossible (some less likely than others but still possible) it doesn't matter how "reliable" we think a model is, it's only as good as the input data at the time and as has been said a million times- the weather itself can change at very short notice and even a slight early change can have massive implications further down the line. more so when the setup is as complicated as it is right now and these frequent changes are fed into the computers with each run- hence the wild variation. as has also been said a million times before, the models don't guide the weather, the weather guides the models.

up to 12.5mm now (that's half an inch in old money!)

10mm of rain in 2 hours and still going strong!!

uh oh.... incoming!! http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

yeah but, so was 'hurricane higgins' 'the summer of 69' and the loch ness monster!

as has been said- 2 runs showing a brief easterly, followed by another big low. in fact little overall difference in the runs. the jet looks just a touch more southerly with each run. the UKMO showing the jet more southerly. maybe a little trend??.... we'll see... less in the way of 'warm' air being dragged into the equation in these latest runs. what we have to remember is, its the input data that dictates the results of each run and its the evolution of the weather itself which dictates the data. there are some very complex weather systems around now and being modelled. exact details will be ever-changing throughout coming runs so we need to keep looking at the PV and the jet for clues as to how things will go. i would say, that if we keep the current pattern but the jet moves further south, we won't need classic blocking, as we would be hit by real cold from all sides. now that would be exciting model watching! it could theoretically be a case of, not "will we get snow?" but "which direction is it coming from today?!!"