Peter H

The BBC long range forecast mentioned an SSW event by the second half of February and possible colder conditions. Nothing on the latest model runs other than brief colder incursions between lows.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa#Global_climate

It's thought the cold winters of the 1980's were largely due to the Mt. St. Helens eruption and increased levels of dust/SO2 n the atmosphere. As far as I know, the Krakatoa eruption in 1883 led to some exceptionally cold winters in the following years. Note the exceptionally cold December 2010 followed the eruption of that Icelandic volcano.

To be honest, I don't think the sunspot cycles affect the weather all that much. 78/79 was a cracker of a winter, the best since 62/63 and probably the last really good one, apart from the early- mid 80's and 2009/10 and it coincided with a sunspot maximum that was far, far, better than this one. All we can really hope for is that by the law of averages, this will all equalise itself out. We're long overdue a run of really cold winters at some stage. It's been far to long since this happened. The really annoying thing is I often see weather set ups in they summer that, had they occurred December/January would have led to exceptional winter weather. The March 2013 was a case in point. A January set up like that would have been excellent, but it was 2 months too late. Sure, we had exceptional snow, but it was all up over the hills and not at sea level. The weather in this country is often very frustrating, but I'm done with this winter as well now. By the time we get past mid February it's really too late.

Simon Keeling doesn't appear as optimistic as he was a couple of days ago. Going for a few days of colder weather mid February (possible easterly ?) and then it breaks down again in the latter stages of the month: http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Yesterday, Aldergrove had it's warmest January day since records began. A balmy 14.1C I think the mildness of this so called winter has been accentuated by the fact my grass is quite long now and really does need cut, but it's far too wet. Quite considerable growth from the end of October.

Yep, BBC monthly outlook also running with the possibility of much colder weather mid February. Nothing at all on the latest model runs which go up until the 10th February now, other than a brief toppling high.

Yep, Met Office and Simon Keeling going for something colder in mid February but I'm not optimistic. The BBC's monthly outlook tomorrow might be interesting. Models currently updating so we'll see if anything has changed from earlier.

Not according to the latest runs, up until the 7th. Hints of a Scandinavian high building in this afternoon's model output, but that's disappeared now and we're back into the south westerlies stretching well into Europe.

Here are the synoptic charts for January 1963. http://www.mikett.plus.com/winter-62-63-maps/january/index1.htm

A strong high pressure over Greenland/Iceland and a polar low.

Temperature a short time ago was 15C Crazy weather for late January.

Yep. same at this end. We've had the odd wee skiff but that's been about it. With this winter being another largely snowless one, that's going to be 6 years without a decent fall of snow. That's really a very long time. Yes, I agree, unless we get a really cold easterly. Late February really is when spring kicks in. Mind you, we had a couple of weeks of really cold weather in mid February 1995.

Mild weather pushing well into Europe and Scandinavia for the next couple of weeks according to the models. That's a really bad sign for February, unfortunately

Yep, me too. Yet another mild and largely snowless one at this end. Pretty much predictable from about late November onwards. Fed up with January and these dark nights too. Roll on summer. Hope we get a good one this year. Long, long overdue.

Indeed, people die here because of the wind and rain, not generally snow. As you say, it's not that cold over there and parts of Canada like Calgary and Edmonton are having temperatures above freezing, unusual I think for those parts at this time of year ? But this drizzle and murk along with this perpetual mildness winter after winter is simply depressing. I was a child/teenager in the 1960's and winters were never, ever like this. Now it seems to be the norm with snow and frost a very rare exception. Oh, and summer here last year was really bad, especially July which was very wet and cool.

Along with James Maddan predicting a big freeze and the coldest winter in living memory every October. One these days he'll get it right, but I'll probably be dead by that stage.

All people here are wishing for is normal winter and summer weather, instead of this perpetual windy, wet, and mild weather in winter, and windy, wet, and cool weather in summer. I detest this sort of winter weather, and we've now had about five completely snowless winters in a row with this annoying strong "jet stream" due to cold weather in North America. It's very frustrating watching this winter after winter.

Well, here we are beyond the half way stage of winter and so far it's been another stinker. Largely snowless (apart from last Friday's wee skiff), and no better than 2014/15 with a record breaking mild December. Models have all gone pear shaped now with no chance of anything remotely wintery over the next couple of weeks and no, when the eastern seaboard of the US gets a major blizzard it does not reach the British Isles a week or so later, unfortunately

Simon Keeling running with the same scenario on his Weatherweb video today, possibly a similar set up to 2009/10 ?????? The BBC were hinting at the cold weather from the east possibly breaking through again next week over the last day or so, and the models did hint at a Scandinavian high at the end of the runs yesterday, but that's all gone now. Mild weather well into Europe for the next week or so at least it would seem, unless Simon Keeling's predictions come true. http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

The one ray of hope is Europe, particularly Scandinavia and the east, are really cooling down now, and long range models are consistently predicting either an Iceland or Scandinavian high from mid month onwards. Eastern Europe being so cold is a good sign, something which hasn't happened in a year or two. This time next week the models may all have changed though. Still, the really cold air is tantalisingly close......

Well, those fantasy models at the end of yesterday evening and this mornings runs kept us going for about 12 hours or so. Now back to the normal south westerly stuff. Who makes these things up ?

Gosh. look at those latest model runs after the 5th of January. Fantasy stuff if they come off, but it'll probably all be gone by tomorrow.

Models are keeping us going now with some interesting charts at the end of the current runs.

Simon Keeling and weatheronline were forecasting much colder weather on the run up to Christmas. The BBC also ran with this theme for a while, but none of it has materialised and as we've got closer to the time the mild weather has just continued and now looks as if it'll last for the rest of the month. All the winter forecasts have predicted something cold in mid January, but judging by their December forecasts I'll not hold my breath. Shaping up to be a real stinker of a winter and even worse than usual.