Midlands Ice Age

WYorksWeather There is a known problem with the NSIDC data. That is that it uses a fixed 'mesh grill' for its coastal sea ice definitions. That is the reason that the ASIF switched to use Jaxa for its main data analysis source. Masie is the most accurate for day to day data as it is used by the US navy for its ocean surface transportation data.. That is why I use Masie!!. It is not a climate dataset so no historical comparison for the further past (beyond 2006 ) is possible. The problem is that most of the recent increases in sea ice are in these coastal waters, and so these are not picked up correctly by the NSIDC. They update their grids about twice a month, based upon historical interpretations.. JAXA would be better to carry out any meaningful analysis. But the limits you will have to use will be different to get any reasonable data out of the analysis. Each dataset gives a different value for the amount of sea ice with NSIDC less than Jaxa and this will be less than Masie. That is because they are measuring different things, and the NSIDC are the least accurate in the areas currently changing, so the answer is almost self-fulfilling, when looking for any increase in coastal ice there. MIA.

I hold exactly the same views as yourself on AGW.... However, I have not totally ignored that other drivers have not suddenly all disappeared and are still present in worldwide climate change. My mind is still open as to the various impacts of all competing mechanisms. MIA

matty40s I have reported widely on here that North America this year has had a poor ice and snow growth season. This year it is the Siberian Arctic and oceans which has exceeded its last 10 years. MIA

WYorksWeather Don't disagree... I deliberately showed graphs of linear and sinusoidal to show both trends in my post. But to keep reporting the data must be good?? MIA

Methuselah I do not ignore warming Meth.. but it has caused arguments in the past which are unnecessary on this thread. I let the data speak for itself... In any case there is climate change thread for you to wax lyrical in, in which I will happily partake if you cared to make those constructive comments over there.. After all the increases in sea ice will disappear shortly, as we all know. MIA

Probably - I am trying to keep CC out of the thread and simply keep it to the data and when the data looks 'odd' report on it - to ask for some suggestions as to why or why not? Warming is still very current all over the world - but why is the sea ice extent not following the predicted forecast at the moment? A further pair of graph has come to light, only today, showing the amount of ice in the Arctic by month (thanks to the ASIF) - Both show the the apparent change (EL Nino related?) over the last 3 years. Is it related, or will it change back again soon?. I have already shown above that Masie also shows the same characteristics recently, and we had a previous dialogue on the faster than normal response in the outlaying areas. These 2 graphs appear to show that the effect has carried on during the rest of the refreeze. Half monthly reports on volume should be out tomorrow. Keep watching. MIA

Thanks john.. Just checked Rutgers and it is currently well down on average. Perhaps all the snow has fallen out to sea in Baltic and the Pacific Ocean? Although more seriously undoubtedly snow does help the ice to seed... It is a question as to how long it will last. The other thing to impact it could be the saltiness of the water. MIA

I have managed to show a screenshot of the relevant data for you... (re my previous note). MIA

Thanks for the above. The tropics - I am not certain why it is shown in here!!! Meanwhile back on topic... The Arctic temperatures are above where they were in the 2000's, according even to your own chart. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic (Sorry I cannot show it directly for some reason, but if you 'hide all' then select years 2006 - 13, then 2023 -2024 you can see the temperature effect ). I do not disagree that the temps in spring (and summer) have been the same but for the autumn and winter they have been above the longer term. So why are we seeing increased and earlier ice formation particularly for this winter? it looks as if the last 3 or 4 years have seen a tendency for increased and earlier ice formation, despite temperatures being increased worldwide by about 0.5C. I agree it could be only a small (possibly transient) phase, but surely it is not without interest?. MIA

Dare i watch the GFS 06Z Thanks for the data above, I have seen that this year (2024) we have now moved up to 138K KM2.. So still growing despite the milder temperatures. I have been looking into the total Arctic ice extents (via Masie) at when the total reached over 15M KM2. Years not shown did not reach 15M Km2. (Ie 2015, 2017-2019 and 2021) . The data follows here - Year Max for year Day of max Date over 15M (earliest first year order) *** 2008 15651 072 037 2013 15550 073 041 2024 15048 042 042 (so far!) 2012 15296 062 047 2009 15326 062 048 2010 15298 077 049 2014 15298 065 051 2016 15077 061 057 2022 15065 060 059 2020 15129 063 061 2023 15005 064 064 2011 15110 067 066 I find it very interesting as it shows longer spells of larger extent and also that they normally started quite early on. Recently the limit has not been reached, until around day 60, until this year. Note this year is the 3rd earliest and also note that Masie may be inaccurate for the earliest dates. MIA

johncam Thanks for your comments.... I've been to the Lakes for 4 days without Wifi - so no data. During this time Masie exceeded 15M KM2 (as you suggest) as at one of the earliest date in its record (17 years), so it is worth reporting. The 'record' was set with a new huge gain of (+276K) on sunday to 15.047K KM2. Since then a drop of 78K and a further 20K gain today sees it just below 15M km2. Still well in excess of the latest years. It seems as though the main inner areas are now petty full (only Barents may still grow from here) whereas the 'outer' areas are very surprisingly still in growth mode, despite the record SST's and worldwide temps being claimed. Bering has gained 100K and the SOO (+50K) out into the Pacific, again despite the EL Nino there. Barents (+50K) and the Baltic have also further gained and both are now at new highs for the season. This we forecast in here due to the filling of the violent storm. The North American ice levels have recovered steadily from their poor season and are now circling Labrador, about to schedule. During this 'recovery' the Arctic DMI temps are falling rapidly again. How low will it get - and where is the polar vortex this year? All very interesting.. MIA

Kaisla Thinking about your post (?) , I have thought of another possibility for ice loss - that the apparent (non existent) ice loss, could well be the action of the waves breaking over the thin layer of ice.. The satellites measuring the ice extent do so by searching for the reflection from the surface of the ice. The sea water could travel a long way as the ice is flat. The action of this intervening water will be to shift the wavebands received back at the satellite, and thus diagnose water, when the ice is probably still just beneath the surface. I have watched this process in my garden pond this winter when it froze over and I decided to increase the amount of water available(level was too low) The ice stayed beneath the new level of water and then very easily froze over the next night. Its obvious really!! It explains the facts we observed perfectly, as we already know that the satellites have a known problem with so called ice ponds very early on in the season, and also later on when melt starts up. Thanks again for your contributions. MIA

54mms recorded locally since Tuesday pm. My own gauge appears US so I'll have to fix it tomorrow. (spiders probably!) Run off water everywhere on my walk - when it turned drier this afternoon. Having a break next week, so hopefully drier. MIA

Kaisla Kaisla - congratulations ... The Masie sea extent has gone beserk today with an increase of over +300K KM2 (+329K Km2 actually) . The average gain for this this time of year is about +30K Km2. When I (and Kaisla) predicted 2 days ago that a rapid rebound would occur when the weather settles down again, I was not expecting this... It would seem that the winds have dispersed the ice and as soon as it calmed down that the ice simply sealed back over again. Masie sea ice extent has leapt up to 14.727 K KM2 and in 1 day has moved to highest in the last 16 years again... the last 4 days gains were +57K , -16K, +10K and today (+329K) .... Certainly I have not seen its like before in 15 years of ice watching, at this late stage of the season. The largest gain today was in Baffin sea area (Newfoundland now icing). with a +100K Km2 increase. BIg gains as we forecast could happen in Barents and Baltic with (+63K and +47K resp). Barents increasing by +138K in the last 2 days. Other increases in most sea areas include (+45K) in the SOO. All very unusual, and leaving a very good chance that we will easily exceed 15,000K KM2 this year on Masie. As usual - a word of caution. Expect an over-average loss correction tomorrow. MIA

johncam Haven't discovered how to show your post yet,,, but replying to your comment, about the Barents sea ice extent. I decided to check back at the levels of sea ice, and in Barents with Masie (back to 2006 only) it is one of the higher extents for the date Jan 25th (before the weather related drop this year). But since that didn't really address your yearly point I down loaded all the NASA data from the NSIDC. It was a very interesting view.... Unfortunately it is not in a format that I can format and display (graphically) but I extracted the following random chosen data for certain years and have given it below - 1979 - 1126000K KM2 (first year and just about largest), going back further is possible in other datasets and old satellite photographs, and also WW2 convoys, fishing reports, etc and they show 1979 at just about the maximum sea ice for most previous years (50 years back say)). 1980 - 994,000K 1983 - 758,000K 1984 - 690,000K 1987 - 755,000K 1995 - 675,000K 2001 - 594,000K 2003 - 965,000K 2005 - 296,000k 2011 - 628,000K 2018 - 282,000K 2024 - 692,000K So whilst there is a downward trend we have seen much less ice at times over the years and some (especially early on) of increased ice levels. (You'll just have trust me that I selected /chose things randomly) I must admit that I was quite surprised by this outcome as I had been led to believe that it was on a very rapid downward trend in Barents. I now suspect that Barents has always been at the mercy of the N Atlantic winds rather than directly by Arctic warmer air.!!! Come to think of it - I can remember depressions going into the Arctic fairly regularly in the 60-70's and they must have carried warm air with them. I also can remember bursts of warmer air over the UK associated with the 'fohn' effect . They must have ended up somewhere in the arctic. I think that the latest acknowledgements of the stratospheric vortex has possibly led us to see (and more importantly measure) more of this perceived new warmth going up into the Arctic. I now suspect/think that it has always happened. I go back to the earliest of the DMI temperature dataset (1958) (recently produced from the ECM data archive for the period), and you can see the variability in temperatures just as you can today - However a look at the 1962/3 winter DMI chart is quite scary !! and you will understand why we had the winter that followed. My conclusion - this year is not a year to be concerned about just yet. Though we will see whether or not it picks up rapidly from its recent depression led fall. MIA

ANYWEATHER Lukesluckybunch If I may add my twopenny worth here. None of the models have behaved at all well recently (and this despite the so-called return of the westerlies). Your claim that the GFS has performed better is only true for our little area of the globe. It had the incoming low about 100 - 150 miles further north than most of the others at the last weekend. It was 'correct' - as if we had seen it a bit further south we would have seen the snowfall start at around London (M4?) instead of around Burton on Trent. So the 'other models were about 150 miles too far south. (on this occasion). However, think back to the 2 other occasions this winter when we were in with a shout of snowfall.. The GFS was too far north by a long way, and all the others were also, but not by so much!! However.... how can you possibly think that the GFS is more accurate?... since it then stopped the low off NW Scotland and then sent it packing back to Greenland with all the non-snow loving people screaming ( on here ) that we are missing out on spring this year and leaping straight into Summer, It was out by 2000 miles in that projection, yet that is being ignored. So this year has been 'bad' for all of the models. In these atmospheric weather situations, with the constant possibilities of 'warmings' constantly being shown means that none of the models can be trusted, until you look out the window. Lets face it that any future expected warming in the stratosphere is not handled at all well by any of the models! But they keep on trying, and no doubt that they will get better. This to me looks to be the elephant in the modelling room, and not the inaccuracies of any particular model. So this year has been 'bad' for all of the models. It is almost back to the situation of the pre global model era, when we all knew what would happen - if we looked out the window. In fact it quite takes me back to the 1960's!!!! MIA

Whats going on in the Arctic?? Just over a week since my last update - so decided it was time to update. The snow and ice have had a tough time over the Arctic. Snow has retreated back in both Europe and North America. and the snow fields are again below average. Ice extent after a nice rise last week, has been hit very hard by the series of lows moving up towards the Barents Sea. The total extent dropping to middle of table during this time. The latest Masie extent is at 14,373K Km2 after daily gains and losses of (+70K), (-52K), (-67K), (-1K), (+132K) and (-23K), over the last week. At this time of year we normally see gains of an average of about (+30K) - so quite a bit below average growth. Why is this? Despite still average gains in both the Pacific coasts (SOO, and Bering), and average gains along the Labrador coastline, we have seen a large reduction in Barents. The loss here accounts for around 350K KM2 compared to normal. A series of low pressure have moved up into the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic, and this has pushed this less cold air into the southern Arctic ocean. The DMI shows the impact/effect brilliantly... Will this continue?? The next few days may see little change as the low near Svalbard begins to fill (Including the remnants of Low Ingunn. - which swept across Norway this week) and has taken residence to the south of Svalbard, but the further outlook sees a return to high pressure as the strat vortex is further 'warmed out'. If this happens expect a rapid refreeze in Barents and a continuation of the higher extent trends. So a somewhat disappointing week for the Arctic to end a superb rest of January. MIA

Yep - dropped down to -2.1C just after midnight in my sheltered back yard. Frost still on roofs.. but clearing now on the grass as clouds moving in quickly. MIA .

6,0C and 73mms please MIA

oh alright then... but it will let us see more of what has happened to the data in the past. Something not easy to extract from the MO website. Do you think a new website would be useful? MIA

Nearly a week since my last update,... Snow increased rapidly into Europe, and just as quickly disappeared again. Any new snow in the USA has remained up until now though. Sea ice extent has had a 'rocky' ride, with a couple of small in the teens drops followed by a +64K KM2 yesterday and a century break (+113K) today giving a total of 14,333K KM2.. Still out in front except for a single year 2007 I think in the last 17 years, which was 14K higher. Todays gains were widespread across the ice sheet with the SOO and Baring leading the way, closely followed by the Baffin Ocean as the ice extends into the Labrador Straits. and down the Newfoundland coast really for the first time.. Barents continues its strong attack on the Bear Isle, but the main pack ice has withdrawn somewhat from the Jan Mayen Isles again just leaving some surface ice which is attached to the island. Oh yes and expected by our Northern correspondents today saw the first real fall in the Baltic as the warmer air reached the southern-most area. (-15K). The last week has seen the surface temp DMI above 80 degrees North continue to fall slowly past -25C towards -30C. MIA

@Paul Thanks - I hadn't noticed the quote from the forum on my prev attempt. Perhaps overwritten by the device copy message. It has worked OK now though. MIA

Mods... when deleting a post due to an error, I could not delete the @name part. When trying to quote / paste in someone's post I got the copy button up. Is this correct.? How would I perform multiple quotes when replying to several comments, if the copy button is used? I thought it just overwrites. Does it mean a new post for each one? MIA

John. I feel the same way.... I'd love to see this through ... but.. I have tried to rationalise (for my own piece of mind)... all of the above posts and come to the following conclusions. (in very simple terms)- The weather at our latitude say 45 - 65N , sees a constant battle between 2 major forcing 'agents'. 1) The polar vortex. It determines the strength of the polar and northern hemisphere jet-streams, - which frequently determine the weather at our latitudes. However strength of the vortex can be affected by factors such as the overall polar temperature (AGW?) - and other agencies such as a stratospheric 'warming' or even more by a full SSW. . These latter 2 'agents' are themselves jointly produced(?) by ineraction between it and the other major atmospheric feature of our northern hemisphere atmosphere - 2) The equatorial/tropical climate pattern behaviour. or whatever it is called. It is made up like a jigsaw and is in constant flux, though apparently does not see the same warming as at the pole. It mainly originates in the massive Pacific ocean, by means of oscillations and eddies which can drive up into our latitudes and even beyond at times. However, whilst a very strong vortex would probably he able to withstand these affects in one part of the hemisphere it would still allow any weakness else where for it to push up further north. and in the Atlantic 3) The Hadley cell - our main buffer against these southern intrusions - which can occasionally get pushed out of the way in the winter.. , but which can move northwards more easily when the vortex dies back in the summer. So in my simplistic terms, the Spanish 'high pressure' is an extension of the Hadley cell and is one of those instances when the vortex is relatively weak. (as it is now in historical terms) and allows the tropical interaction to be able to find a jink in the northern jet (the southern arm at any rate) into which it gets promoted and can develop, and then can push further north.. It is a feature developed because of the constant ever changing balance within the equatorial and polar forces.. When the vortex is colder it will give more strength to the jets enabling them to push further south, and then prevent any push northwards of the Spanish high.. Clearly, something has changed.. Mediterranean climate was characterised by warm very wet winters ... where have they gone in recent years.? I hope my simplistic way of looking at things is useful to some... MIA

Good point, and especially for the graphs above.. This thread has been successful as it has been with the existing format, and we shouldn't change the format. At the same time I feel there is worth in having information on the historical CET, and the take on the data where discussion can be held. The AGW people have a group thread devoted to their needs. Would it be worth setting up a general one in here for Historical CET discussion and its data?. I am not aware that we have had one in recent years, I feel that it would be a useful addition to the site. I am aware that you have set up sites when the CET was upgraded.. I think a new one loaded with some of your data could be a useful addition as the MO (who hold the data afterall) hardly ever mention the data outside the span of the 1961-1990 timescale. There is a lot of useful information buried in there I am sure. ????? THoughts MIA