Midlands Ice Age

and finally a snow and sea ice comparison of end of 2022 with end of 2023 (for comparison) - < 2023 and 2022 > MIA

As discussed above I will do an end of 2023 post for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres sea ice now. ( Worldwide is also interesting) The post below is mainly taken from the ASIF (with thanks for the charts). 2023 started off more slowly than the end of 2022, with an end of refreeze update for 22/23 about in an average 6 - 9th position overall, but with the trends (see below for graphs) on an increased slope. We then went through a rapid melt in August at the end of the 2023 melting season. Sept and Oct were quite good for sea ice and by the end of Nov were in an average position with the refreeze having taken over the basin slightly earlier than the average of the last few years. Since then the refreeze in the Pacific (outgoing sea areas) has been very strong and rapid. Looking back at the sea ice extent average amount of sea ice or the NH we see - which has shown the higher amounts in the last 3 years and after the drop in the summer, it also shows well the uplift of the last 3weeks. The linear trend lines of the last 10 years and the last 50 years are attempted to be shown - So all looks very good really - without suggesting any reasons for it. It does seem to suggest that a breakout may well be happening but it requires another years data to confirm. Meanwhile for the SH (Antarctica) things have been very different - A rapid fall in the SH sea ice started in the Autumn of 2022 an this continued until about 3 - 4 months ago, when a recovery became apparent - ( I have already suggested it must be connected with the Hunga Tonga Volcano). and this is shown more clearly in the charts below for the accumulated amount of sea ice area shown at the end here - So pretty large impacts of 'something' are being shown in the southern hemisphere. What does this all mean for the worldwide Sea ice position? Remember that this - according to some people - is key to our continued life expectations on earth. So what does the recent increases mean with the longer term trends in total sea ice area? Again we need to see what happens this year to make any longer term statements, but the recovery in worldwide sea ice extent does appear to be quite strong at the moment. A rapid 'bounce back' in the Antarctic area sea total annual sea ice area will be forthcoming soon as we are now at higher levels than last year right now. All for now, keep healthy and cheerful, and now for me back to the MAD thread. !!! MIA

Been very busy this last week, but I thought that it was good to here from the people in Finland on the Baltic. A lot more time today so I will do an 'update of the week' now and then do an annual (2023) later post so as to see where we are now. (GOOD is the answer!!). Anyway this last week has seen a retraction worldwide of the snow cover. Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab CLIMATE.RUTGERS.EDU Rutgers University Global Snow Lab It is interesting that they have Dec 2024 down as the date for yesterday's graph. Maybe as a result there is no anomaly graph available yet. I think that this is why its currently blank!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Apart from China and the east (inc Alaska) all areas are now below average - Much of the lower than average figures are being shown in the central area of North America, though Europe has also pulled back (temporarily I think). Now onto the Sea Ice situation ----- It has remained generally strong over the last week, with Maise moving having moved to the top last week for Xmas has maintained its position. This has been achieved by average increases on 3 days and large increases (Including one of 198K KM2 yesterday) in the interim days. The gains recently have been early and large, mainly in the east with Bering, SOO, Yellow Sea and Cook Inlet all showing very large gains. . Whilst other regions ( except Hudson) having remained at about the same levels (for our Northern contributors - though expect to see large gains this week) However the laggard of the pack has been the Hudson Bay which is only just reaching its peak at 2 - 3 weeks later than the recent averages - . All the above from Masie (with thanks) Looking at the wider situation I will turn to the ASIF (thanks due for the graphs) for extent (13th lowest (13th now) after a peak of 18th earlier in the week. .... And for 'Area' - The latest in 9th place. So it leaves 2023 in a good position with levels of increase since the rapid final melt in August, with gains of between 7 - 10% more than the average for the last 10 years and even some of the years in the noughties. So the last 3 weeks (as the ice has spread outside the basin), have seen very large increases overall, although the increase weakening just slightly in the last 3 days. That is all for now, with high hopes for a record ice season coming up for the Baltics, and so all for now (a lot of charts, I know) , I will look at 2023 in historical general perspective in my next post. MIA

Also just noticed that as shown in the report as late as 20/12 the GFS were not predicting any warming at the 10Hpa level. Many on here were aware that this event about to take place, and yet it seems as though the GFS model was not!!!! Does this explain why there are such large differences? MIA

Same from me to you all... AND... Lets hope that the GFS is wrong and that we get loads of cold and snowy weather soon. Oh yes I have recorded another century break for rainfall in my back garden with a total of 108mms for Dec 23.. That is the fifth month on the trot!! MIA

Whilst its a bit quieter in here I thought that many would be interested in this 'report' from the ECMWF organisation severe-weatherEU. It really is very easy to understand how you get 'bursts' of high pressure from a weakening of the PV. Early signs show a Major Shift in the Polar Vortex, with a Strong Stratospheric Warming Wave now likely to bring a more Wintry Weather pattern in January » Severe Weather Europe WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU A stratospheric warming event is appearing in the forecast, showing signs of a Polar Vortex disruption, and a colder weather pattern for the United States in January IT is over a week old now, but it serves to show the impact of even a weakening PV, and why it is very difficult to pinpoint actual events. Oh and happy New Year to you all. MIA

Might as well stick with my totally wrong guess for this month..... 3.7C please...... and half the rainfall with 53.0mms please. MIA

This nearly compares with the best blizzard I have experienced, Back in 1956 end of January - went from no sign of cold to 2-3 weeks of coldest temps for the century within 48 hrs. (no models then). https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=27&month=1&hour=0&year=1956&map=7&region=&mode=2&type=ncep MIA

Yep, some stormy weather around in the last 24 hrs. Although it has now turned a bit less mild in the last couple of hours. This morning (and this pm so far) was very showery with the occasional heavy burst. Today's total so far is 8.6mms and my monthly total now exceeds 100 mms yet again during this year, at 102.9mms. The water table level starting to get vey high., and we can expect flooding if we do not get a break soon. We need some snow and ice to avoid flooding.!! MIA

Ventnor ... whilst what you are saying is indeed correct it is only in the last 2 weeks that things re really starting to improve very rapidly. (see below)... Hopefully a case of just in time planning.!! MIA

Despite the still mild weather , I wish you all a VERY Happy Christmas and a healthy New Year. (Also plenty of the special white stuff to fill our lands!!!) MIA

Merry Christmas to everyone. Jaxa this morning has brought more Xmas cheer with yet another century break (though todays data only on rounding) of (+100K). This is the 10th consecutive average century and shows the freezing 'energy' this year is very much increased, and this is now showing outside the Arctic Basin. For comparison the average for this date and time of year is about 40K, and reducing. This, as was suggested yesterday, has leapt this years rankings to 16th lowest, with only 2014, 2008, 2007 in front of it, in the last 18 years.. (Data thanks to the ASIF). Maise has also gone to the earliest date in its history (since 2006 only), that of Dec 24th to reach 13M KM2. Great news all round!! Apart from on the BBC, as they do not apparently deal with good news. Off to get ready for my Xmas lunch. MIA

WYorks I think that the new CR Euro climate dataset looks more realistic for this current year than using Berkeley earth.. It is now showing a fall in the anomalies over the last month to more like the levels we might expect. This coincides with the changes that I have observed in the ice extent numbers.... It is still running high, but the extreme anomaly picked up during the previous 6 months, does now appear to be dropping. Time is needed before this is resolved.

Following on from my immediate post above and this discussion we had in mid November on here (see above for the start), I thought that a worldwide sea ice extent discussion/report could be interesting (and unexpected for most). (Thanks to the ASIF) I present the current worldwide charts and positions) - A truly rapidly changing and unexpected set of charts. Why might this be?? One reason is the rapid onset of the refreeze in the Northern Hemisphere as detailed in my previous post above, but it cannot explain everything. Examination of the SH has now suddenly also started to gain an anomalous and large amount of ice for the time of year. So it looks as if we could well be seeing a sudden increase of ice extent across the globe. When I wrote the November post (above), I commented that the Antarctic appeared to be in 'recovery' mode , well this has continued and if anything the trend has increased following the very low figures for 2022/23 S.H. Season. Extent has now reached 7th lowest (was 2nd 5 weeks ago, and lowest for most this year) . I have looked down at the detail level for the Antarctic oceans and they show that the Weddell Sea has just about stopped melting, and most of the others are slowing down at the same time as the change to a slower rate of warming is occurring over the continent. The Weddell Sea is the largest ocean around Antarctica and it has suddenly appeared as the 20th lowest for area after being lowest for many months - What is going on down there? Well the only thing that can stand out is the Hunga Tonga Volcano. If you remember it was suggested that its effects might well take up to 2 years to work through the atmosphere. - , Well it looks like it took 18 - 20 months. The fact that we are seeing huge (for us) amounts of nacreous cloud in the NH could well indicate that the H2O has now dispersed into the northern hemisphere as well, and that since the sea ice is recovering so quickly that its warming effects are now eroding away. Can anything else be suggested? It, to my way of thinking could not be CC direct impact as a large change (such as this in this direction) has not been postulated. It does however support aspects of the CC theory in that H2O in the stratosphere could be seen as vastly warming. although of a very temporary nature.. My thoughts are that it could also have long term implications for the development of life on earth. Maybe it was (going back 2 -3 billion years ago) a reason for the earth suddenly warming and cooling. During most of this time the globe was covered in oceans. The major continents (Pangea, etc) were fairly transient (as well as fairly small in total earth terms) and so any major long-term effects of tectonic volcanos (producing Co2 from underground seams of plants, etc ) (assuming there were any about then) would be vastly reduced at that time, in comparison to the huge amounts of time that earth was under oceans. So , could my 'suggestions'/ideas be correct? Only time can tell... MIA

Thanks for the above Dave (Claret047), and may I wish a happy Xmas and a healthy and brilliant new year to you, and to one and all. As it so happens I have been watching the worlds (not just NH) sea ice changes quite closely over the last 2 -3 weeks (over the long week end break)., and decided to do something about it as a report, which I will report separately below so as to not upset the normal flow on here. So a quick update on the NH.... Snow has continued to be fairly sparse over the greater extent of the NH. The only places are China, Alaska and the Yucatan Peninsula, and Eastern Siberia to have excess snow at this date. However we live in hope!!. Sea ice has continued to expand rapidly in the last 2 weeks. (thanks to the ASIF and Masie see below) - ASIF (Jaxa) gone from 3rd (last week) to 13th lowest today, and looks a though it could easily go to 17th highest shortly (out of 17, although this include one year in the early 2000'nds ). The change is as I believe, (as I suggested in my previous notes), to do with a quite quick refreeze in the Central Basin this year, followed by a consequent longer than normal lasting stasis, before the outer sea areas start to refreeze. This change now appears to be gaining momentum as ice completes (its admittedly late) arrival in Hudson Bay, but is steaming ahead in all the eastern oceans of Bering, the SOO , and now the Yellow Sea, (and also in Greenland). However I have also noted widespread reports (particularly locally!!) of the very unusual appearance of many nacreous clouds in the northern hemisphere. Some lovely photos below from the MIdland thread (with thanks). They are not normally common unless the air is very dry and exceptionally cold and do indicate that much larger than normal levels of water vapor ( and other rarer gasses??) are present in larger amounts in the stratosphere. The reason which appears to spring out to me is the effect of the Hunga Tonga Volcano water eruptions into the upper levels of our earth, maybe at a time of increased solar irradiation. For a more detailed discussion of further interesting current observations see my next note below... MIA

I am currently closely watching the southern hemisphere too as part of any climatic change currently taking place in terms of the Hunga Tonga Southern Pacific Volcano. This now seems to be having a more global impact in terms of the worlds sea ice area and extent levels, which, if correct, may also give us an insight into the volcano impacts on our climate and surroundings. I am currently composing a post for the N H Arctic sea ice thread, explaining the latest details that seem to be becoming apparent, but if you also consider when the waters covered 90% or more of earth, (guessing at least 50% of the latest 3 billion of the earth's history) then the eruptions of many underwater volcanos could well have had major impacts on our historical climate. It would seem that a not inconsiderable amount of the current warming could have been caused by the sudden huge increase of H2O into our stratosphere. This is something that was/is still being researched, but looking more and more likely to have had at least short - term effects. It might well have been that several could have erupted about the same time (relatively) under the huge ocean extent and this might well have affected the climate in a quick and sudden way. Probably more so than the very small amounts of CO2 locked away at the time for earth bound volcanos to emit, (going back before roughly a billion of years ago). MIA

Before Xmas , a latest update... (7 days since the last one) Snow in Europe has moved back over the last week to the Russian border. with milder Atlantic airs pushing through. Despite this, Asia and particularly China has been 'basking' in snow. The North America continent has been short of wintry weather but is showing signs of an upcoming wintry spell. Sea ice has spent the week gradually filling in the inner Arctic basin oceans (about to the scheduled date- despite a very slow start). This means that the sea ice extent has 'joined the pack', for the period of the second week of December. (thanks to the Arctic sea forum) - though more recently the extent has been improving rapidly and has burst out of the pack - So a large increase in the last 3 days. Cause? The starting up of relatively early ice freeze up in the oceans out of the inner basin. This has resulted in a large (for the time of year) increase in all the outer sea areas, with the exception of the Baltic. (See individual sea areas below for charts ) - This to me is quite surprising, as according to most temperature and SST's records the northern hemisphere is undergoing a huge warming. So how is the ice forming so readily outside the Basin? The next 2 weeks are likely to be quite interesting, particularly if the touted SSW occurs. MIA

But the weather itself behaves just like a rockin horse!! MIA

As Mr Wheeler might say .. although it did get the last cold spell correct,,,, unlike some of the more followed models. MIA

Carinthian.. Your mentions of a 'curveball' low crossing the north east of Scotland and moving down the North Sea and its impacts reminds me of one of the really horrible moments of the 20th century. Particularly to the East Coast and the Dutch coastline. Not many people will be aware (or more probably - see it happen) that the event caused the greatest loss of life in the UK of the last century. It has become known as the North Sea disaster. That of late Jan 1953 when a low formed between Greenland and Iceland and ran SE towards the northern tip of Scotland. It then went for an explosive cyclogenesis (bomb in todays terms ), as it moved SSE down the east coast and in towards Holland. Nearly 3000 people were killed in total on both sides of the Channel, with around 300 in the UK. Whilst not wishing to spread alarm, I do feel that we need to watch this situation very carefully over the next 6 days. It could be a Christmas wrecker. I remember the night/evening well in North Nottinghamshire out delivering groceries with my father and being invited in for drinks, and at one house they had a tele (wow) and were showing scenes of the conditions on the east coast with nearing 100 mph winds and with us a raging northerly and occasional snow flurries. A few links which may be of interest below - Great North Sea flood of 1953 remembered 70 years on - BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-64414388 The Met Office will be aware of this situation I hope. I have included the re-analysis for the event so that one can see the similarities. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=30&month=1&hour=0&year=1953&map=7&region=&mode=2&type=ncep PS Perhaps the Iberian high made the situation even worse by squeezing the pressure gradient. In fact there were a lot of similarities world wide with the main vortex transferred over to Siberia. MIA Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4977669

Carinthian.. Your mentions of a 'curveball' low crossing the north east of Scotland and moving down the North Sea and its impacts reminds me of one of the really horrible moments of the 20th century. Particularly to the East Coast and the Dutch coastline. Not many people will be aware (or more probably - see it happen) that the event caused the greatest loss of life in the UK of the last century. It has become known as the North Sea disaster. That of late Jan 1953 when a low formed between Greenland and Iceland and ran SE towards the northern tip of Scotland. It then went for an explosive cyclogenesis (bomb in todays terms ), as it moved SSE down the east coast and in towards Holland. Nearly 3000 people were killed in total on both sides of the Channel, with around 300 in the UK. Whilst not wishing to spread alarm, I do feel that we need to watch this situation very carefully over the next 6 days. It could be a Christmas wrecker. I remember the night/evening well in North Nottinghamshire out delivering groceries with my father and being invited in for drinks, and at one house they had a tele (wow) and were showing scenes of the conditions on the east coast with nearing 100 mph winds and with us a raging northerly and occasional snow flurries. A few links which may be of interest below - Great North Sea flood of 1953 remembered 70 years on - BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-64414388 The Met Office will be aware of this situation I hope. I have included the re-analysis for the event so that one can see the similarities. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=30&month=1&hour=0&year=1953&map=7&region=&mode=2&type=ncep PS Perhaps the Iberian high made the situation even worse by squeezing the pressure gradient. In fact there were a lot of similarities world wide with the main vortex transferred over to Siberia. MIA

Just received an EMail from my grandkids to say that whilst I was out this afternoon Xmas shopping , that Santa had replied to their letter about Xmas presents. He said that they had managed to make them all in time. What really great news!! However they had a PS at the bottom of their letter for me... It said apparently that for all those people who had ordered a Scandinavian high for Xmas that they would be unlucky. However his little elves were working on the problem and that provided that they were not delayed too much with presents being thrown all over the floor that they might be able to arrange a special surprise delivery for the New Year. Good ol' Santa

3 days since the last update... Snow cover in the N American continent is below average, and although this is partially offset by slightly higher than usual snow cover in Europe and Asia, we are still at lowish levels. - Sea ice extent cover over the last few days has showed the now repetitive trend of slow change followed by a leap. A gain today of +206K Km2 after 3 patch gains tells the story - Detail was quite interesting with ice cover in the N A continent in Hudson Bay rising by 120K Km2 (the polar bears will be safe for another year) , whilst the ice also started to cover the coasts of Labrador for the first time. In the east the Bering Ocean sealed off the gap between NA and Asia for the first time, and there was a large increase in the SOO. Also ice was observed in the Yellow Sea for the first time (4 days later then last year). So we now have all the outlaying sea ice areas producing ice. The first 2 weeks of December are traditionally the time at which 'outer' icing commences after a pause, and this year is no exception. Future ice total extents will now be dependent upon how much cold leaks out of the Arctic basin. MIA

Amazing how they get the timing correct on a Sunday. Actually it started at 10 and by 14:00 had left 10.4mms. Showers forecast for this evening again. MIA

Here you go with the previous day - Also big increase in Baltic Sea ice today (30%). MIA