Midlands Ice Age

7.6C and 134.9mms please MIA

I hadn't appreciated this morning how strong the ice growth is becoming - Masie says that this year is now exceeding both 2021 and 2022 for the current date, after gains of (+189K) , (+100K) and today (+286K) respectively after starting well behind in late September.. No doubting now that the weather at this time of year is dictating the early refreeze season. Todays leap is general with gains in Beaufort (+40K) - almost reaching to the coastline, Chukchi (+19K), ESS(+17K) - filling in the few open areas left to ice, Kara (+31K) - icing up the eastward side of the Zemlya chain, Barents(+22K) - actually with polar ice, entering into Svalbard now, Baffin +(52K) extending down into the ocean, CAA (+49K) extending down to the southern islands and the entrance to Hudson Bay, Hudson itself doubling (+32K) as ice spreads south into the lower areas. The North American continent is reacting quickly to the cold outbreak, All areas gained today, (unless already full)., even Bering doubled in size as ice starts to form in the more sheltered bays. Snow in the North American continent is also spreading very quickly now, as the predicted very cold outbreak (tor time of year) spreads south. and east This season seems to be on its way to challenge some of the earlier 2010's for its wintriness. Even I am quite surprised, following a slightly pessimistic start to the season. MIA

Already the Lake Effect is starting up - A more general snow covering now in the US, however the boundary recedes slightly in Western Russia . Ice extent making usual gains today, whilst unsurprisingly a slight loss in Kara after its extreme freeze so far. MIA

Yep .. I am seeing early reports of Lake Effect snow from the Great Lakes also., for later this week. Although winter is late in N A it looks like being plunged from Summer straight into winter, in one leap. Masie sea ice extent continues to converge with the last 2 years (which were good enough for the last decade). MIA

No obvious clear reason for the bomb hurricane.... https://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topstories/why-did-hurricane-otis-explosively-intensify-off-mexico/ar-AA1iYjVs?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ACTS&cvid=e6ea275e821a4c329905ec9c601d4440&ei=68 Look to the mountains.... MIA

Its surprising how quickly things can change.. Snow levels back on track after just 2 days of general snowfall

10.2mms fallen today and monthly figure now 164.mms.. MIA

Positives everywhere this morning (Saturday).. Snow has made a giant leap the width of western Russia, and has also covered the lower level Baltic countries (Latvia, etc). The cold anticyclone over Scandy continues to withstand the bombardment from the cyclones we keep throwing at it. A positive for us for later on? Sea extent ice shows an almost flash freeze in Kara and general gains everywhere. Yesterday Today Some other news which has just come to my attention is that sea ice extent in the polar basin (CAB) has been running at record levels for the last 20 years for quite some time already. It is virtually full already with only areas around Franz Joseph Island and Svalbard left to be covered. The CAB boundary is about the 80 degree latitude circle Data confirmed by NSIDC and Masie - This will restrict further gains in this area, and is totally the opposite of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), which is currently running at record low levels - Which fits the pattern of fast ice formation in the east (Russian Oceans), but very slow in the N American Oceans. This anomaly will be fixed this week (my prediction) All for now.. MIA

A more detailed review of the status as of today. Snow has spread further west in Russia again, and soon will be falling on low ground in Europe (as well as Scandinavia) as the cold moves westwards.. Snow continues to spread into the USA with more cold incoming to expel all warm air from the south East in a few days. ice extent (Masie) has recorded gains of +138K KM2 and today +236K Km2 to keep is on track with 2021 and 2022. At the period of maximum ice increase. Ice still gaining rapidly in ESS (+70K) - towards total freeze, Kara (+28K) - but doubled in 2 days., and (+64k) in Baffin Bay area. Additionally Jaxa is now joining the fun with gains of (+119K) and (+188K) in consecutive days. With thanks to the Asif. Expect the CAA and Hudson Bay to freeze suddenly soon. MIA

And so to Part 3 of my Trilogy on Arctic ice status. Before I get on to it, Part 2 contains an error. Cambrian has pointed out that I have used the word 'jet' stream, instead of 'gulf' stream. He is of course quite correct. Apologise from me. Now (Get ready for a long boring read!!!) Part 1 was current weather impacts. (positive showing up until today) Part2 was the medium term weather changes (Nino, NIna, SSW, etc), which are positive and negative... and Part 3 the longer term changes and impacts. Firstly I will start by apologising to CC haters for discussing this.... But the temperature over the longer term (greater than 3 -5 years) is on an upward trend, so something must be happening... Long term there does appear to be warming associated with Carbon Dioxide. Most models seem to think it is of the order of 0.03C per 10 years. (Quite small). We could argue that this is long term natural warming (after the mini-ice age of 200 years ago) - but it is still happening. This my summary of Global Warming.... ( take full responsibility if any of it is wrong\) ... So what is it that brings up the 'warming' to about 0.1C decade being observed recently, and the possible 1.0C in the long term future? Well the main answer is Water Vapour (1000 times more abundant, and 100 - 1000 times better as a Greenhouse gas in absolute intrinsic terms ). To a lesser extent it is also methane (much less abundant, though an even better G. Gas.) and some other impurities in the atmosphere, Some of these are seen to be cooling eg SO2 (sulphates, and Nitrates), whilst others warming and cooling (Ozone), whilst still others are warming (fluoro-halogens, etc). A very complex chemical mixture which has stood us so well, for so long. Even then it is even more complicated than I have written -- as some of the above chemicals work in different ways at different heights.... Water vapour in the Stratosphere appears to be cooling (at that height), but it causes warming of the earth as less heat is then transferred into space (Via OLR (Outgoing Long wave radiation)). Whereas lower down, Water Vapour is both cooling and warming depending upon the type of weather conditions (fog, thunderstorms, steady rain, lightening, etc). It can also increase in volume and mass in the air at higher temperatures. (Over oceans for example, but not in deserts)|. I will say no more so as not excite the CC head hunters!!! - apart from the fact that CO2 in itself is not a great warmer, (due to it relative scarcity), but that It utilises the other chemicals for its warming effect. So above we have a long term warming happening (someway)... What else might change the above chemical soup?? There are a few 'obvious' answers - 1) Humans. No further discussion on here. If someone wants to go further then its over to the C.C. section for more chat. 2) Volcanos and Vulcanology. (In other words the earth - see below) 3) Sun (and what I will call space). We can do little about changes in the earth's orbit or the suns power. We may get energy sent to us from outer space. But who knows?. So Vulcanology and Volcanos will be the main topic ... Traditional volcanos are numerous (perhaps 10 every year) and (unless huge) present hardly any change to the earth's chemical atmospheric 'soup', They, in the main, throw out oxides of Nitrogen and Sulphur, and quite a bit of iron oxides (in the form of magma), and some solids (mainly dust)|. Their atmospheric effects are 'cleaned' quite quickly ( a few days or weeks) by rainfall. In general they induce a very small underlying negative impact on temperature, which may last a few weeks (The Icelandic ones of a few years ago, eg). Some actually throw out a bit of Carbon Dioxide, but not many and they can be ignored. (needs underlying Carbon to activate\. A few produce Water Vapour (steam), when they pass through underground water or maybe glaciers., and these could have a positive impact on temperatures. So (and this is the interesting new bit) we had had 2 occurrences of underwater/ocean explosive volcanos in the observable past . 1) Krakatoa - known for its explosive blowing away of a Pacific Island, but it also took away quite a bit below the ocean. from under the island. It produced 1 - 2 years of worldwide cooling (Including several days of reduced worldwide sunlight), but it could have been worse (It seems ), if it hadn't managed to also send up quite a bit of steam, into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.. It is believed that steam was about 10% of the output. 2) Hunga Tonga (last year, where a more or less total underwater island was blown away.) It is now estimated that about 50% of 'emissions' where water vapour (steam). It therefore contained much potentially warming material. This time it could be studied in great detail and the output is just being released by scientists, (mainly in China, Japan and in Holland). They seem to agree that most of the vapour settled just below the stratosphere and was moved around by the world's weather systems mainly around the southern hemisphere. (which is where it occured). However about 146 million tons crossed into the stratosphere (about 15% of the normal amounts there).. Compared to just 420 tons of SO2 ( the normal cooling agent). The overall impact is therefore thought to be a warming. Early modelling is showing that this warming will be about 0.1C over the whole earth and as much as 0.2C in the southern hemisphere.. (most volcanic output still remains there). It seems as though the stratospheric water vapour has remained below the equator, whereas the tropospheric is rapidly dissipating it. it is thought that it may well take in excess of 2 years to remove the impacts. There are quite a few papers and articles being published and if people are interested I will supply details. H2O in the stratosphere will combine with Ozone as well as the oxides of most compounds, and what impact will this have? Also will it remove the fluoro-halogens? Extremely interesting times for atmospheric science me thinks. They could not have arranged a better test.!!!!!! The Antarctic is suddenly having one of its worst freezes ever... after 2022 saw its lowest ever temperature. Is there a connection? So what does this mean for the Arctic????? Not a lot in the short-term as the Stratospheric H2O has not reached the northern polar regions yet. So far with the Autumn refreeze looking exactly like that of 2022, I would guess not much overall this year ..... But who am I to judge? MIA

A morning quick update from me again as I want to finish my weather 'trilogy' today. Steady increases shown overnight by the NSNIC charts this morning (for yesterday) for both snow and ice. with Laptev virtually full, the ESS following shortly and Kara making impressive early gains. Of interest is that these sea areas are at the top of their rankings for the last 5 years , whereas the Canadian Archipelago and Hudson Bay are at their minima. Just shows that I was totally wrong last spring when I was asked what impacts El Nino would have on the Arctic Ice!!!!. My excuse is that El Nino hasn't kicked in properly yet as it hasn't totally coupled the Strat with the Trop;!!! An interesting anomalies prediction chart was just shown in the Autumn MOD thread, which shows major warm anomalies predicted for the Arctic, but cold for the northern hemisphere (above 55 degrees lat), Copied here for interest - It will be interesting to see if the Arctic 'heat' affects the sea ice formation. (I have my doubts). Meanwhile snow continues to move westwards towards Europe and across Russia via Moscow, Albeit a week later than normal, though Northern Scandy remains cold.. MIA

Just seen this, and thought it worth while adding a similar bad enough (though less intense) situation, that I found myself in (I think Sept/Oct 1997??).. I was on a cruise down the west cost of the USA just off the Bhaja(?) Peninsula heading for Acapulco next morning. Wonderful hot sun-bathing weather not a cloud in the sky, until midday, when the first of two things happened. 1) We were surrounded by a school of dolphins literally all the way around the ship (at about half a mile) for about an hour and a half. The captain came on and said it was the largest he had ever seen and he estimated 1.500 fish. 2) Clouds started to build up on the mountains to our east . These developed into a large thunderstorm by about 15:00. Spectacular to see. Anyway sun bathing continued on board (about 10 miles away), until it was time to go down for dimmer (18:00). During the meal,(about 20:00) we heard large thunderclaps overhead, and the ship (40.000 tons) started to rock violently, to such an extent that ladies began to scream in the dining room as tables and people were thrown everywhere. We were told it was just a quick storm (and not to panic) which had spread form the coast.. By 22:00 I decided to look outside... Opened a door on deck 7 (In my DJ! and was nearly washed away by a wave. Great hilarity amongst my friends/wife. It wasn't funny!, as it was quite scary for me. Things stayed in this state with a lot of movement on board. So went to bed early (23:00). Things got much worse about 01::00 so got up and looked out the porthole.... To see a water spout/tornado going past about half a mile away surrounded by flashes of lightening. Never seem anything like it before or since. Went back to sleep!!!!... Woke up next morning and was told we would be late docking because of storm damage on land (Acapulco). Long story..... but then it got interesting.. (for me, a budding weather enthusiast) . Walking round the ship and bumped into the captain, and asked him what had happened overnight. He said that there was a TS out to sea, forecasted to swing north and then away from the coast. It actually seemed to pull the coastal storms towards it and it (as a result) deepened rapidly. Then it moved straight over us and crashed into the coast about 40 miles north of Acapulco. That was his report. Classed as a 2/3 from my memory. 3 people were killed in Acapulco by the storm that night. The storm killed about 10 -20 people in Mexico (mainly form heavy flooding rains), which continued for 3 days. I was unaware that it was classed as the worst cyclone to hit Mexico in history as we continued to cruise further south, totally unaware as to how lucky we had been, as we were virtually ' trapped' by the cyclone when it moved ashore... So this sort of thing has a precedence... though not as severe obviously. I am certain that the mountain based storms (which were spectacular in their own right) was what 'flicked the switch' that day. Be interested to see if it was the same/ similar situation again. To cap it all after going through the Panama canal we got hit by a Caribbean hurricane Cat 1/2, whilst going into Fort Lauderdale on the last night... Fantastic for me ,,,, but not many others were impressed. Best cruise I have ever had --- Hooked on anything weather wise for life.. Sorry to bore you all with my story... I often wonder whether the dolphins were trying to warn us>>>>>>>>> MIA

Quick update tonight.. Masie increases by 128K Km2, despite a fall of (-41K) in Chukchi. Good increases in most other sea areas, but notably in Kara (+51K) and Barents (+14K) as pack ice pushes towards Svalbard. Warmer air has entered via Bering into the east of the Arctic. Snow cover now starting to increase steadily in N America, as the colder air is now moving south into the United States. The first snows are now showing up in Central Russia. Other information is that DMI temperature (above 80degrees) has returned , and is showing a large drop when the anticyclone held sway over the Arctic. Since when it has increased again. An interesting change to the weather patterns is about to happen over the 3-5 days, much as GFS predicted (forecast) last weekend MIA

BIg ice extent gains yesterday in ESS, and Laptev and Kara.. Slight losses in Chukchi... Gains today in the slow CAA... (yesterday first) Snow cover expanding rapidly in Canada and into the USA (Including my wish of East of Hudson Bay!!!) - Expect large gains in Russia by the weekend... MIA

Carinthian... For fans of blizzards..... I had picked up on this trend and was about to post something similar. I was thinking along the lines of with very warm moist Atlantic air and a southerly focussed jet stream (and if the Scandinavian cold can hang on) we could be in a position (seeing what has just happened with Babet) that just may be a bit later on, this could be the forerunner to one of those very major events in the UK. A lot of ifs there I know.... MIA

Yep I have been expecting something like that for the last week. Ever since I noticed that snow had fallen on some of the inner Aleutian Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula. Hopefully it will be picked up tomorrow by the major ice extent models. MIA

Decided to continue on from the first part of my tome above (as I suggested would be required).. The post above was directed towards the question of what has happened in the short-term..... My reply was centred around the weather issues of the last 2 months as that is what I consider being the most crucial. I did not however go into more detail on the more medium and long term influences such as Nino, NIna, Ocean currents, and long term temperature change, SSW's, etc., ..... which I just mentioned. They obviously need to be taken into account when dealing with the Arctic medium and longer term state. Without going into any detail on CO2 warming, I will deal with some of the points that must be considered. Longer term warming is clearly taking place, and I will discuss that in the the third of these data based epistles. . Firstly one of the question is that of the other causes of the events over the last few years is clearly; has there been any impact from the recent 3 year long La Nina?. It clearly impacts the Pacific but has that a sufficient fingerprint to impact the Arctic, via the ocean currents perhaps? I suspect that the answer is in the main no, but possibly indirectly? The last 2-3 seasons have seen the arctic ice recover very quickly in early autumn. Is this just chance or could there be a connection? 3 Years in a row is a high correlation, It is possible that this connection could be thru' the lack of any signs of a tropospheric vortex in the last 3 years, (during early and late autumn). This seems to have enabled high pressure to become more dominant during these times. Hence more early ice formation. (* - see below for some detail) Notice I have not proposed any mechanism, I am just reporting the observation. ** ASIF have been reporting increased levels of ice formation early in the Autumn. (with thanks..) Quote .JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 7,015,114 KM2 as at 22-Oct-2023 - Extent gain on this day 86k which is 34 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 120k, - Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,879 k, which is 370 k, 14.7% more than the 10 year average of 2,510 k. End So for 2023 ice growth has been rapid. This is also true for the previous 2 years, with an adjustment of about 2 weeks for the dates, with similar 15% increases.. El Nino's (now just building) may well be associated with more depressions in the Arctic, possibly by causing more of a temperature differential between the equator and the arctic at higher levels. They were predominant when the ice levels were falling in the mid 2010's. Conversely could it be flat temperatures during La Nina which show the current impacts??... Next to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW's) affecting the Arctic. During the last 3 years they have not happened at all really (?). Could this be because they need a deep vortex to get the maximum effect.? The last big one that I remember was in winter 2017 -18 (from memory), when one occured in Laptev and Kara in late February and we had the major impacts in March... It had little impact on ice extent, but increases in the ice thickness in the area were large, (under the clear skies and downdraughts of cold air over the area.. ), and this saw quite a large volume impact. So SSW's could well be positive for the ice, based upon this instance.. Next to Ocean Currents. in the main the Arctic is sheltered from these except for the Jet Stream into and thru Barents, and the Pacific via the Bering gap. There are reports that the N A Jet Stream is weakening, but affects so far have not really changed the distribution of the ice. A couple of years recently have seen the ice reach the Bear Isle which is half way between Norway and Svalbard, although it is now a few years since the Baltic had a decent freeze up. - The SSW of 2018(?), possibly the last time. A further climate determinant is that from Volcanic Eruptions. I feel it worthwhile that a further note be devoted to this subject, as a lot of new scientific papers are being issued at the moment in view of the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption, and its impacts.. I will then look into more longer term impacts of the climate on the Arctic.. MIA

A bit more info on today's ice extent figures.. Laptev fell slightly (-9K) , perhaps 'overdone' yesterday (+129K). ESS gains another 30K. Elsewhere the most significant was a large 10K KM2 gain in Hudson Bay.. see screenshot below. (Zoom in) MIA

MIA' s theory - (for what its worth). The question of the sea ice growth and thaw is proving to be more complex than just straight linear, ie just driven by temperature. Sea ice seems to have stopped its 30 year decline is a subject being discussed quite widely on the ASIF. A few more people are now suggesting some form of a stasis is (maybe) taking place. Sea ice demise is clearly related to the temperature, but whereas originally only positive feedbacks were used in calculations, which then lead to rapid removal of the sea ice, it is clear that it is more complex.. Originally forecasts (around 2010) predicted a BOE (Blue Ocean Event - defined as less than 1 million km2 of sea ice extent being reached in summer in the Arctic) was expected to occur by most within 10 years. (by 90% of correspondents on the ASIF expected a BOE by 2020, and also many published polls and annual forecasts by the weather services, etc, eg). This has not occured, and maybe wont occur for a little while longer yet.. Sea ice extent has not fallen to new lows for about 10 years now, and the ice early growth seems to be still strong enough to cancel out large late decreases. Factors not originally taken into account are the much colder (than expected) temperatures in summer caused by fog and cloud when the ice melts. Certain weather conditions appear to allow the ice to form (or melt) - 1) An Arctic centred Anticyclone. This, in the main from Oct to April, with no sun and clear skies allow the temperature to fall over the ice fields. (No winds from the warmer continents), and is good for ice growth. An anticyclone is however bad for ice in the peak insolation period from June to August. 2) Slack areas of low pressure over the Arctic ice sheets (Ie not bringing in winds from the continents) also appear to be good for ice. Possibly aided by precipitation cooling the ocean surface. 3) Vigorous low pressures seem to pull in warmer air from the sides and can lead to rapid ice loss with higher temperatures, and with wave and wind motions. 4) However a centrally located strong polar vortex seems to let the temperature fall more rapidly and is good for ice retention. The above I have identified myself from observation. Other related conditions which can affect the Arctic ice sheets are the Ocean currents and the salinity of the water. Lower salinity will allow ice to form at a higher temperature, than fully salted sea water. (Difference of 0 to -2.8C) Other general weather related items such as Nino and Nina, and particularly Sudden Stratospheric Warmings have undefined effects in the arctic - as not enough data for me yet. So how has that shown up in the Arctic? Well prior to roughly 2010 the ice was melting quickly. Possibly affected by temperature. Since then we went through a series of years of extreme variability of the ice. Say up to 2020. After 2020, we have seen a lack of a strong Polar Vortex and more and longer periods of Anticyclonic and 'slack' low pressure conditions. This seems to have stopped the rapid ice loss (maybe temporarily), as the last 3 years have averaged around the 2010' s average ice figures. Several of my above listed items may well have caused negative effects and influences, and some quite positive. As to the question asked whether the August melt has allowed the ice to freeze more rapidly.... 'Could be' is my answer. Certainly the ice will have a lower salinity, so a positive there. But I think the weather conditions have played a big part, with mainly anticyclones ruling, and in the main centred slap bang in the middle of the Arctic, over the pole. Ideal for pulling in air from off the rapidly cooling Greenland plateau. out into the polar regions.... and whenever we had depressions these were centred in such a way as to pull in the colder air from over Siberia. That is why recently, I have been quite positive compared to many this season so far , despite the apparently 'warm' anomalies over the Arctic, used by many as their guidelines for forecasting., - particularly those on the ASIF. Have the conditions of the last month been lucky? We will have to wait and see.!!! Hope this helps? It is proving to be a complex issue. MIA

Dan??? Your post is an interesting one which I have been thinking about a lot more recently. It will not be a quick reply.... so I thought I would break it down into 2 or 3 different posts... later today possibly It will be based upon my own observations over the last 10 years of active watching, and being a 'viewer' further forward than that, via the ASIF, from where a lot of my ideas come from. (but not all by any means). Anyway for anyone not that interested in the Arctic ice environment - today's brief general report - Snow has finally arrived across the whole of the Arctic Canadian Territories. This is the start of first major Arctic plunge expected to engulf much of N.A. - including the United States (as well), during this week. Russia not seeing a lot of change today. Ice extent has increased steadily throughout the Arctic. (with the possible surprising exception of Laptev - which was about steady, after its huge gains of yesterday). Today and yesterday.. CR (with its snow and ice map) seems to indicate that Chukchi and Beaufort will be next to freeze over, with its apparent 'low ice/snow signal. (Aleman's suggestion) All for now.. MIA

A brief update at half time in the England game,,, As discussed above both Laptev and ESS exceeded 100k KM2, The first time I can remember this happening. In addition Kara is making good gains with a gain of 30K Km2. Still a lot of water to freeze up yet! MIA.

Ended up with around 70mms over the storm. My total for the month now at 148.7mms, having doubled. Looks like a 200mms month on the cards. (according to new forecast\). MIA

******* Following yesterdays figures an exceptional event reported today by NSIDC . ********** Laptev and the ESS virtually flash freeze cover in just 24 hrs. Kara also faster than the last 5 years up to now. I'll report back with the exact numbers when issued this pm. To add to the good news JAXA just reported that 2023 freeze now greater than 2022, after another near double century (+179k km2) increase. . Now we await the snow cover large increases in Canada and Russia expected early next week. MIA

A very good day today coming up..... Sea ice extends its reach towards Siberia in a huge leap. Snow extents eastwards in N America. Already Jaxa has recorded a near triple century increase after two consecutive double centuries. Thats 750K Km2 in 2 days. Probably a record. Back later with details https://usicecenter.gov/current/ims20231019euasia-7ani.gif MIA

Stopped about an hour ago in sunny Solihull. 31mms so far. 36 hr total of 56mms (2 inches) MIA